Geography Demography PDF

In demography (Greek: *demos* = people) -- the study of the characteristics of human populations (such as size, growth, density, distribution and vital statistics) on global, national and regional scales -- it is important to remember that the situation is dynamic, not static. Population numbers, di...

In demography (Greek: *demos* = people) -- the study of the characteristics of human populations (such as size, growth, density, distribution and vital statistics) on global, national and regional scales -- it is important to remember that the situation is dynamic, not static. Population numbers, distributions, structures and movements constantly change in time, in space and at different levels.   The population development of any area is captured by the basic demographic equation. 1. Complete the formula:   +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ | **popul | **=** | **popul | **+** | **(numb | **+** | **(numb | | ation | | ation | | er | | er | | ~t+n~** | | ~t~** | | of | | of | | | | | | births | | immigra | | | | | | − | | nts | | | | | | number | | − | | | | | | of | | number | | | | | | deaths) | | of | | | | | | ** | | emigran | | | | | | | | ts)** | +=========+=========+=========+=========+=========+=========+=========+ |   |   |   |   | â |   | â | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Natural | | Net | | | | | | increas | | migrati | | | | | | e | | on | | | | | | | | | | | | | | (or | | | | | | | | decreas | | | | | | | | e) | | | | | | | | / | | | | | | | | natural | | | | | | | | change | | | | | | | | of | | | | | | | | populat | | | | | | | | ion | | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+     **Population distribution** The global mean population density in 2020 was estimated at approximately 60 people per km^2^ *(World Bank)*.   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ein Bild, das Karte, Welt, Atlas, Text enthält. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- **Figure 1** Population density 2020 *(NASA)*.   1. Of course, humans are not evenly distributed over the Earth\'s land area. What are the fundamental factors that affect population distribution? -natural resources (water) -\> access to water (clean and fresh) -climate -\> reliable rainfall, no extremes -topography/terain -\> flat, lowland plains -(accessibility) -financial resources -infrastructure and developement -political situation -\> security, stability, freedoms, (religion) -economy -\> job oppurtunities, economic boom -\> high income -soils -\> rich in nutrions, deep -diseases -\> malaria etc.       **Population structure** A country's population structure is best illustrated by population pyramids (or age pyramids). These graphs normally divide a population into 1-year or 5-year age groups on the vertical scale and into males and females on the horizontal scale. The number of individuals in each age group is shown by the length of horizontal bars, with males typically located to the left and females to the right of the axis. These numbers may be given in absolute numbers or as percentages. As well as showing past changes, a pyramid can predict both short-term and long-term future changes in a population.   1. Assemble Switzerland\'s population pyramids of 1900, 1950 and the most recent year for which data is available. Create these graphs, using Excel, on your own or in collaboration with classmates and post them below (cf. fig. 2). If you have difficulties finding out how to use Excel in order to create a population pyramid, ask the teacher for help. You may use the following links to acquire the required raw data.   *Historical data:* - Statistical Yearbook of Switzerland 1953 (census data from 1860, 1880, 1900, 1910, 1920, 1930, 1940 and 1950) *Contemporary data:* - Permanent and non-permanent resident population by institutional units, citizenship (category), place of birth, sex and age class - Permanent and non-permanent resident population by institutional units, citizenship (category), sex and age   +-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+ | 1900 | 1950 | 2022 | +=======================+=======================+=======================+ |   | My figure |   | | | | | |  | | (2022) and wer 90-94 | | | | 80-84 70-7a 50-54 | |   | | ao.u 30-3a 20-24 | | | | 10-14 400000 300000 | |   | | 200000 100000 2tncno | | | | female | | | | | | | |   | +-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+ **Figure 2** Switzerland's population pyramid at specific moments in time.   1. What can fig. 2 tell you about Switzerland's population development? Try to explain striking features and make a reasonable projection into the future. -The population grew -People are getting older -The age of the whole population is older (average age is older) -baby boomers -immigration to switzerland quite sigificant -during the 1. WW not a lot of people were born -1918-1920 -\> lots of deaths because of the spanish flu   -\> prediction: -population will grow older because of lower birth rates \-   1. Use fig. 3 to describe changes in the spatial distribution of the Swiss population in the more recent past. Explain these shifts using appropriate technical terms, drawing on your knowledge from geography classes in previous years. -people move away from the cities -\> to villages near a city (suburbs) = suburbanisation -people move away from the really remote vallies into more accesable vallies -people move to areas that are near the highways or trailways (traffic routs) 4   -----------------------  ----------------------- **Figure 3** Increase and decrease of resident population 1980--2000 *(Swiss World Atlas)***.**   1. Complete table 1 by gathering information from the United Nations\' World Population Prospects:   **Table 1** World population milestones by the billions. year ca. 1000 ca. 1700 ca. 1800 1930 1960 1975 1987 1998 2010 2022 ----------------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ No. of people \[bn /10^9^\] 0,3 0,6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8   1. Use Excel to create your own line graph of world population growth (cf. fig. 1). Use the data from table 1 (or find more detailed data yourself).   +-----------------------------------------------------------------------+ | World population growth in billions | | | |   | | | | *Aus \* | | | |   | | | |   | | | | *Aus \* | | | |   | +-----------------------------------------------------------------------+ **Figure 1** World population between year 1000 and today in billions.   1. Note down your thoughts on the causes and consequences of this development. Causes: -industrialization -green revolution (machines -\> machanisation -\> vehicles, irrigation system (especially in drier climate), artificial fertilizer, monoculture, pestizide ) -railway -\> transport (goods, food) -\> compensate for short comings -modern medicine and hygene (clean water, use of soap, antibiotics, vaccines) -social security system   Consequences: -more resources needed -\> more pressure on natural resources -resources are limeted -question of distribution -more pressure on environement -sickness can spread more quickly because poeple live more densly     1. Make an assumption (headcount) about the growth of the world population during the time of one school lesson (45 minutes). Around 6500 people in 45 minutes -\> in developing countries around 6350 and the rest in developed countries   1. Match the important terms in table 2 to their correct definitions (because right now they are in the [wrong] order!). Then, use the UN\'s World Population Prospects again (cf. task 1) to research the global average value of the most recent years for each of the indicators. -\>2022   **Table 2** Important demographic terms. +-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+ | **indicator** | **global mean** | **definition** | +=======================+=======================+=======================+ | (crude) birth rate | 16.5 ‰ |   | | | | | | | | Annual number of live | | | | births per 1\'000 | | | | people | +-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+ | (crude) death rate | 7.8 ‰ |   | | | | | | | | Annual number of | | | | deaths per 1\'000 | | | | people | | | | | | | |   | +-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+ | total fertility | 2.27% | Average number of | | (rate) | | children a woman has | | | \* | throughout her | | | | | | | | childbearing years | | | | (usually age 15 to | | | | 44--49) | | | | | | | |   | +-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+ | (population) growth | 0.9 % | Annual exponential | | rate | | rate of growth of a | | | | population (includes | | (*or* average annual | | both the natural | | rate of population | | increase and net | | change) | | migration) | +-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+ | life expectancy | 72.64 |   | | | | | | | | Number of years which | | | | an individual at a | | | | given age could | | | | expect to live at | | | | present mortality | | | | levels | +-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+ | Infant mortality rate | 28.2‰ |   | | | | | | | | Number of deaths of | | | | children under age 1 | | | | per 1\'000 live | | | | births in a given | | | | year | +-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+ | child mortality rate | 37.8 ‰ |   | | | | | | (*or* under-five | | Number of deaths of | | mortality) | | children under age 5 | | | | per 1\'000 live | | | | births in a given | | | | year | +-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+   \* replacement level fertility = 2,1 (total fertility level at which adults have only enough children to replace themselves)     1. Profile every macro geographical (continental) region according to the United Nations geoscheme (in which Middle America is part of "Latin America and the Caribbean") with regard to **a)** population distribution, **b)** population structure and **c)** population development. Use the intro\'s fig. 1, maps from the Swiss World Atlas or your own work (with QGIS, see below) as well as population pyramids and demographic indicators from the latest version of the UN's World Population Prospects () and be mindful of accidentally wrong conclusions in your descriptions or manipulative data interpretations!   ***You may use either of these two table formats:***   macro region a) b) c) ------------------------------------- --------- ---- ---- **Europe** My text     **Africa**       **Asia**       **Northern America**       **Latin America and the Caribbean**       **Oceania**         +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ | macro | **Europ | **Afric | **Asia* | **North | **Latin | **Ocean | | region | e** | a** | * | ern | America | ia** | | | | | | America | and the | | | | | | | ** | Caribbe | | | | | | | | an** | | +=========+=========+=========+=========+=========+=========+=========+ | a) | People | -less | -tibeta | -southe | Most of | Most of | | | in the | densely | n | rn | the | the | | | regions | in | high | mexico, | people | populat | | | with | sahara | plateua | east | live on | ion | | | the | desert | -\> | usa, | the | is | | | best | -\> no | very | canada | east | around | | | envirom | agricul | cold | near to | coast | the | | | ental | ture, | -\> not | the | because | coast | | | conditi | no | many | border | on the | (climat | | | ons | water | people | of the | west | e) | | | (blue | | | usa -\> | coast | | | | banana) | -more | -desert | most | are | In the | | | | people | very | people | mountai | middle | | |   | on east | dry | live | ns | of | | | | coast | (gobi,e | there | and a | austral | | | Populat | -\> | tc.) | | desert | ia-\> | | | ion | south | |   | and in | desert | | | towards | easterl | -60% of | | the | | | | the | y | world | Not in | middle |   | | | east | trade | populat | the | is the | | | | because | winds | ion | other | rainfor | | | | of | bring | in Asia | parts | est | | | | climate | humidit | | because | and | | | | (colder | y | -gang | it is | | | | | and | | river | too | They | | | | drier) | -victor | basin | dry, | also | | | | | ia | highly | mountai | live | | | | | lake | populat | ns | above | | | | | populat | ed | or too | the | | | | | ed | | cold | rainfor | | | | | -\> | -india, | | est | | | | | altitud | china | | | | | | | e | and | | And in | | | | | -\> not | banglad | | the | | | | | too hot | esh | | south | | | | | | = | | it is | | | | | -wester | denstes | | simply | | | | | n | t | | too | | | | | africa | populat | | cold | | | | | highly | ed | | | | | | | populat | | | Urbanis | | | | | ed |   | | ation | | | | | | | | along | | | | | | | | the | | | | | | | | coast | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ | b) | Similar | -very |  | -\> | | | | | growth | increas | | female/ | | | | | | ed |   | male | | | | | | (70 | | | | | | | | years | Mushroo | -\> age | | | | | | ago) | m | evenly | | | | | | | shape | distrib | | | | | | | | uted | | | | | | | Average | | | | | | | | age is |   | | | | | | | shifted | | | | | | | | up | -\> | | | | | | | | religio | | | | | | | Birthra | n | | | | | | | te | is very | | | | | | | in the | importa | | | | | | | last | nt | | | | | | | few | in the | | | | | | | years | USA | | | | | | | is not | | | | | | | | so high | | | | | | | | (cost | | | | | | | | of | | | | | | | | childca | | | | | | | | re, | | | | | | | | poor | | | | | | | | work-li | | | | | | | | fe | | | | | | | | balance | | | | | | | | s | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | More | | | | | | | | man | | | | | | | | than | | | | | | | | women | | | | | | | | (younge | | | | | | | | r) | | | | | | | | -\> | | | | | | | | sex-sel | | | | | | | | ective | | | | | | | | abortio | | | | | | | | ns | | | | | | | | (chinas | | | | | | | | one | | | | | | | | child | | | | | | | | policy) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Lack of | | | | | | | | women | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | One | | | | | | | | child | | | | | | | | policy | | | | | | | | in 1970 | | | | | | | | but | | | | | | | | there | | | | | | | | were | | | | | | | | exeptio | | | | | | | | ns | | | | | | | | (tibet, | | | | | | | | rural | | | | | | | | areas) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Populat | | | | | | | | ion | | | | | | | | has | | | | | | | | tripled | | | | | | | | (since | | | | | | | | 1950) | | | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ | c) |   | -crude | -great | Populai | Populat | Triplin | | | | birth | femine | ton | ion | g | | | | rate is | in | still | is | of | | | | decreas | China | increas | rising | populat | | | | ing | | ing, | but | ion | | | | | | but not | expecte | Child | | | | -total | | as much | d | mortali | | | | populat | | as it | to sink | ty | | | | ion | | was in | in 2050 | went | | | | increas | | the | | down | | | | ing | | past | 1950: | women | | | | | | | 170 | (71) | | | | -total | | Lot of | mio. | get | | | | immigra | | immigra | -\> | older | | | | tion | | tion | now: | than | | | | is | | -\> | 650 | men | | | | negativ | | populat | mio. | (65) | | | | e | | ion | | populat | | | | | | is | Birth | ion | | | | | | growing | rate | is | | | | | | | still | still | | | | | | Doublin | in | growing | | | | | | g | positiv | | | | | | | in | e | | | | | | | populat | but | | | | | | | ion | decreas | | | | | | | since | ing | | | | | | | 1950 | | | | | | | | | -\> new | | | | | | | | society | | | | | | | | structu | | | | | | | | re | | | | | | | | (you | | | | | | | | don\'t | | | | | | | | need | | | | | | | | kids) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Emmigra | | | | | | | | tion | | | | | | | | is big | | | | | | | | -\> | | | | | | | | towards | | | | | | | | USA | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+         The demographic transition model (DTM) describes a sequence of changes over a period of time in the relationship between birth and death rates and overall population change. The model, based on population changes in several industrialised countries in Western Europe and North America, suggests that *all* countries pass through similar demographic transition stages or population cycles -- or will do, given time. The following figure illustrates the model:   -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ein Bild, das Text, Diagramm, Reihe, parallel enthält. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- **Figure 1** The demographic transition model with illustrative examples. Please note that technically speaking no country is still in stage 1!   1. Name further examples of countries in specific stages of the DTM (cf. table 1).   **Table 1** Further examples of countries in specific stages of the DTM. +-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+ | stage 1 | stage 2 | stage 3 | stage 4 | stage 5 | +=============+=============+=============+=============+=============+ | none | - Tanzani | - Afghani | - France | -South | | | a | stan | | Korea | | | (end | | - Switzer | | | | of 2) | - Nigeria | land |   | | | | | (soon 5 | | | | - Central | - India | ) |   | | | African | (end | | | | | Republi | of 3) | - New | | | | c | | Zeland | | | | | | | | | | - Somalia | | - USA | | | | | | | | | | | |   | | +-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+   1. What is the explanation for the high birth rate in stage 1? - Due to the high death rate, women have more children in hopes that one of them survives past infancy and can help support the family, kids are workforce -\> family needs them to work - Replacement children -\> having as many children as possible, to replace the ones that die (today often used in a different kind: new child after another one just died and parents are still grieving, used in psychologie) - Children can take care of their parents once they are old (insurance) - No birth-control oppurtunites or not enough knowledge about it - Fertility of a sign of a worthy leader (chief on a island or some other leader) - Religious concept -\> marry early, have a big family (catholist)   1. How can the falling death rate in stage 2 be explained? - Healthcare gets better (advances in science) - Better hygiene (clean water) - Wealth - Better nutritions (better food supply, better quality and bigger quantity) - Qualified people are now more widely aviable - Better education, awareness (how to use soap) - antibiotics   1. Why does the birth rate decrease in stage 3? - More children survive past infancy ( death rate decreases) so they can support the family (no need for replacement children) - Children are expensive (house, food, clothes, education) - Because of social developement there is pension from the state and your kids don\'t need to take care of you - Norms have developed (only 1-3 children per family) -\> work culture has changed (you are a good man if you earn a lot of money and having a big family (fertility) is not as important anymore) - People start to have children later in life (because of education -\> carrreer)   1. What kind of problems do countries in stage 5with a declining population face? - lack of young people who can work properly and a lot of old can\'t really work anymore (bad for economy) - Pension fund problems -\> not enough young people to support the old ones - Remote areas die out -\> infrastructure is expensive - The economy is declining because a lot of people that can work anymore   1. Chose a country/state and research how the demographic indicators (which are relevant for the DTM) behaved there over time. Use Excel to create your own line diagram/chart of that data and assess whether the case example fits the DTM.   +-----------------------------------------------------------------------+ |  | | | |   | +-----------------------------------------------------------------------+ **Figure 2** Birth rate and death rate over time in my country (data source: my text).   does correspond to the model -- rather does correspond to the model -- rather does not correspond to the model -- does not correspond to the model -\> conclusion: - Transition of birth and death rates from high to low levels in a population - \"modernisation\" causes a decline of mortality and a delysed decline in fertility - Thus resultin in rapid population growth during the transition period - Stage 1 and stage 4 feature no populaiton growth - Death and birth rates (drop of birth rate) are preconditions for a high standart of living...or vice vesa?\... - \"development is the best contraceptive; contraceptive is the best development\" - Model serves as the basis for populaiton projections   1. What are advantages of the DTM? - In addition to the structural transformation according to Fourastié, this model explains the demographic change from a traditional agricultural society to an indrustrial society and a modern consumer and service society - Comparison of growth rates between different countries at a given point in time - Understanding of past demographic changes - prediction and plainning for developing countries(?)   1. What are disadvantages or weaknesses of the DTM? - Countries can also jump back into an old stage (Somalia) - Emigration and immigratio can also change the population development - Model is only for natural population development -\> model doesn\'t explain everything - The model is based on developed countries (europe and north america), so it is based on this culture -\> mabye families in africa have more children if they are better of (more developed) - Generalisation of Western worlds\'s demographic history; Eurocentrism (e.g. the difference between birth and death rates is far greater in less developed countries today than it has erver been in the West - is a similar developement at all possible?) - The timescale of the model: some countries are in the \"transition phpase\" for over half a century now; some develop at a much faster rate - Additionally : times have changed (18th vs. 21st ventury) - Is there even a casual relaitonship between \"modernisation\" and demographic change? How important is it to be industrialised? How important is an urban environment? - Stage 5 (a shrinking popolation) was not part of the original model - Certain countries (latvie, russia) seem to move backward in the model       1. Look at how birth and death rates have behaved in more and less developed countries, respectively (cf. fig. 2). What conclusions (regarding the DTM) can be drawn? - The natural increase comes earlier in the more developed countries - The less developed countries are in stage 3 - The more developed countries are in stage 4 - The changes were more gradually in the developed countries (birth rate went more parallel to the death rate) - Population growth in developed countries wasn\'t that big as in less developed countries -\> for more developed countries it was easier to adjust to the bigger population due to the slower change   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ein Bild, das Text, Diagramm, Reihe, Schrift enthält. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung  mored developed countries 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 birth rate --- death rate ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- **Figure 2** Comparison of demographic indicators in different parts of the world (left) *(PRB, Population Reference Bureau)* and more contemporary data (right) *(UNdata)*.   1. Interpret India's population pyramid, commenting also on the sex ratio. You can find it here:\ If you were an Indian politician or decision-maker, what measures would you take for the short- and long-term benefit of the nation, based on the current population structure? - there are mostly around 6\'000\'000 more men than women in the \"younger\" generations, per age group (below 50 years old) - Economic growth 8.2% - Right now there are a lot of people that are economically productive (or a lot that are soon in that age, around 30 years old) - Change the mindset of the people (girl abortion, kasten system) - Empower women, education   +-----------------------------------------------------------------------+ | ***Excursus*** | | | | **Gender studies and sex ratios** | | | | Gender: how it is expected of you to act because of what sex you are | | (gender stereotype) | | | |   | | | | The number of males per 100 females in a population | | | | - global mean: 101.6 | | | | - Less developed countries: 102.8 | | | | - More developed countries: 95.2 | | | | | | | | - Saudi Arabia: 134.7 | | | | - India: 108.0 | | | | - Switzerland: 98.8 | | | | - Russia: 86.5 | | | |   | | | | Explanation/background: | | | | - naturally 3-7% more boys born | | | | - Men shorten their life expectancy by lifestyle (risk taking? | | Heavy manual work? Injuries from violent conflict? Excessive | | drinking, smoking, etc.?) | | | | - Women have a longer life expectancy (rule of thumb among mammals: | | larger individuals die erlier, two copies of the same sex | | chromosome offer a protective effect) | | | |   | | | | -\> varies regionally; influenced by social, political and economic | | developments | +-----------------------------------------------------------------------+   Study additional demographic data (indicators, population pyramids) independently and connect them to the demographic transition model. Qatar: many men around the age of 20 to 50 come from poor countries to work there and send money back home, same with kuwait Hong Kong: better outlooks for chinese women for their career because of the political situation (democracy in Hong Kong, comunism in China) -\> still a lot of women in high position in Hong Kong   UN: \"globally, 100 million women are missing\" Noticeable defictis observed in: - China - India - Pakistan - Middle East and North Africa -\> mostly becausee of gender-specific abortion   Population changes in a given area are an essential planning basis for governments. Spatial planning as well as the promotion of the economy and infrastructure investments are based on assumptions about the expected population structure. Therefore, population projections are an important field of work for demographers.   +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | **Sketch of the Malthusian | **Sketch of Ester Boserup's | | Hypothesis:** | hypothesis:** | +===================================+===================================+ |   | My sketch | | | | |   |   | | | | |   |   | | | | |   |   | | | | |   |   | | | | |  |   | | | | |   |   | | | | |   |   | | | | |   |   | | | | |   |   | | | | |   |   | | | | |   |   | | | | |   | | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | **Core statements of the | **Core statements of Ester | | Malthusian Hypothesis:** | Boserup's hypothesis:** | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | Core statement | My text | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+   1. The Earth's "carrying capacity" is one of today's key challenges. What is meant by this term and what conclusions regarding population development have to be drawn?   = the largest populaiton of humans/animals/plants that a particular area/environment/ecosystem can indefinitely carry of support without environmentall degradation.   -\> the carrying capacity cannot be estimated by just looking at a single indicator like population density. Agricultural capacity, technology, standard of living etc. figure into it as well.   -\> todays estimation: 12-15 billion people?     1. What population projection is given by the DTM? At some point every country is gonna be in stage 4 and therefor the global population will decline     1. On the contrary (to the DTM\'s projection), a "demographic trap" in less developed countries is discussed -- what does it mean? The poor countries will have a lot of children -\> more poverty -\> more children... -\> the less developed countries will never reach stage 4 and 5   A situation where stage 2 or 3 (DTM) persists as death rates fell, bt birth rates remain high, resulting in a period of continuing high population growth   Many developed countries affected -\> world population continues to grow   Possible explanation: Tom much population growth and insufficient economic growth - Falling living standards; more poverty - Reinforces prewailling high fertility (as people rely on children to provide them with economic security) - Reinforces declinde in living stadards etc. Development that could have slowed population is impossible   1. What is the "demographic-economic paradox" and what goal is therefore worth pursuing? = inverse correlation found between wealth and fertility; the higher the income per capita and the education level of a population, the lower the birth rate   -\> modern society seems to deviate from the biological norm   -\> population growth slows as soon as preconditions for economic prosperity and a higher standard of living are in place -\> demand for more just condiotions in politics and markets for countries and people affected by poverty -\> ?\...   **Case study: Japan** Japan -- still the fourth largest national economy in the world -- is facing a dramatic demographic development: 36 million people are now over 65 years old. That is almost 30 % of the total population! Many people feel pessimistic about Japan's future now.   Watch the movie \"An Age Old Problem\" and answer the following questions:   1. What are reasons for the ageing population in Japan? - Highest life expactancy (healthy food, lots of exercise, a good mindset) - Work environement slows the starting of a family -\> hard for women that work to start a family, poor work-life balance (espacially after women) - For young people it is hard to find good jobs -\> feel a disadvantage - Often only 1 child per family (tradition), or life is too expensive and stressful - No marriage -\> no children - Negglect of social policy: 1960s family image wanted (stay at home mom, husband stays at the same company their whole work life -\> nearly at home -\> many divorces among the elderly when the man is at home after pension, strict gender roles - Social isolation -\> difficult to start a family - Immigration is difficult in japan -\> nearly no foreigners (only 2%) - Japan is in stage 5 -\> population decreases   1. What are the problems and challenges of an ageing population? - Not enough space in hospitals for the old people also not enough nursing personal - After 65 the people go in pension, the young people have to cover that, way less young people than old people -\> little pension -\> [poverty among elderlies] (highest suicide rate above 65 in Japan) - Family has to look after them, take care of them (finacial problem) - Old people often have to work till the end (no pension) - (Economy is very poorly -\> all have to work) - hardly any young people - Many poor old people -\> loose their place in society, unemployed (state looks away) - Younger generations have to support the elderly (they don\'t like that) -\> the young pay for the pension of the elderly (they feel at a disadvantage because they know that they won\'t have as much pension as the elderly get now -\> divides the country, tension between the old and the young) (the younger generation knows that the problem will worsen so they know that they probably won\'t get as much pension) - Old values are disappering - Pension fund problem - Less young people -\> less working people -\> less economic output - Lot of infrastructure has been built, but it isn\'t used anymore because the population decreases -\> renovate? - Young people move to urban areas -\> old people left behind in rural areas -\> these areas can \"die out\", upkeep all the infrastructure, transport     1. What are countermeasures for dealing with these problems? - There should be more jobs for people over 65 - Robots for elderly care (new technologies) - Child benefits (to increase the population again) - Public discourse (ex. Elderly look after children) - Social policies -\> healthy economy - Womenomics -\> make the work environment more women friendly (part time jobs -\> not choose between career and family) - Learn from other coutries - Lift retirement age - Immigration   1. Japan is not the only country in which the population is no longer naturally increasing but rather decreasing. Name other countries that have to keep an eye on their ageing population: - South Korea - China (retirement age 50!!) - Italy - Greece - Spain - Portugal - Germany - Switzerland       **The global perspective on the topic** Listen to the podcast \"How should we prepare for an ageing global population?\" and anwser the following questions. \   1. The podcast\'s interviewee mentions a change in life opportunities, especially for women, as a key driver of decreased fertility rates, though, he also discusses a case that many women misconceive the opportunity of having children late in life. What is his point there? - Slower population growth if people have chidren later in life - Long term contraceptives are now aviable - Children are expensive (you may need to give up your job) - The older you are the less people there are with the same age - The older you get the harder it is to get children     1. The interviewer in the podcast raises ideas of possible benefits of smaller workforces and less productive societies because of the ageing population. What are these? - We could decrease the use of our resources -\> better for the environement - Only use stuff we already have - Engaging more in vare work due to decreased need for workers to produce   1. What are the interviewee\'s answers to ageing societies in the podcast? Many concerns: - Countries have to adapt to the age of the population - Diminsch a countries military strenght   - Better part time opportunites (family and work possible) - Investment in healtch (from early on -\> healthy life form baby to senior) - Those who really want to have children should get them in a healthy age (they should allve educated on when a pregnancy is good or bad) - Reducing disparities   1. According to the interviewee in the podcast, what is the role of migration in ageing societies? - Migrants can help sustain the workforce - Migration doesn\'t solve the problem -\> mabye could help in some countries but other it won\'t -\> migrants age aswell