Foreign Policy Notes PDF

Week 1 (lec 1,2) 2024-10-01 9:58 AM Detailed Notes on Chapter 2: The Global Context Foreign Policy Overview Definition: Foreign policy is outward-looking and seeks to promote the national interest. ○ Key Question: How do we best anticipate threats and recognize opportuniti...

Week 1 (lec 1,2) 2024-10-01 9:58 AM Detailed Notes on Chapter 2: The Global Context Foreign Policy Overview Definition: Foreign policy is outward-looking and seeks to promote the national interest. ○ Key Question: How do we best anticipate threats and recognize opportunities beyond state borders? § Approaches: □ Structure of the international system □ Changing relations between countries □ Specific events Example: U.S. foreign policy formulation in response to Chinese actions in the South China Sea. The South China Sea Dispute Geopolitical Importance: ○ Size: 648,000 square nautical miles. ○ Surrounding countries: China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Taiwan. ○ Disputed landforms: Over 400 to 600 rocks, reefs, atolls, and islands. § Major groups: Spratly and Paracel Islands. U.S. Stance: ○ No official position on territorial claims but rejects China’s sovereignty claim over most of the region. ○ Tensions escalated between the U.S. and China due to conflicting territorial claims. Key Strategic Factors of the South China Sea 1. Critical Passageway: ○ Major route for global commercial shipping and naval operations. ○ Six times the oil flow compared to the Suez Canal. 2. Potential Natural Resources: ○ Significant energy reserves (referred to as “the second Persian Gulf”). 3. Strategic Importance to China: ○ Compared to the Caribbean’s strategic importance to the U.S. ○ Integral to China’s foreign policy and defense strategies. U.S.-China Tensions in the South China Sea Major Events: ○ 2013: U.S. flew B-52 bombers through contested airspace after China’s claim. ○ 2014: China placed a $1 billion oil rig in disputed waters, increasing naval tensions. ○ 2015-2016: China built a "Great Wall of Sand," creating artificial islands for military purposes. ○ 2016: International Court of Justice rejected China’s territorial claims. ○ 2018: U.S.-China military encounters, including a near collision between a Chinese destroyer and the USS Decatur. Historical Context: The First Asian Pivot Commodore Matthew Perry (1853): Opened Japan to trade after two centuries of isolation. ○ Treaty of Kanagawa (1854): Established U.S. coaling stations but no commercial concessions. ○ Later treaties: Expanded U.S. influence, including trading rights and extraterritoriality. ○ Impact: Led to Japan’s transformation into an industrial power (Meiji Restoration). ○ Subsequent events: Japanese victories in the Sino-Japanese War (1894) and Russo-Japanese War (1904). Theoretical Perspectives on Foreign Policy 1. Realism: ○ Focus on power struggles and an anarchic international system. ○ Key figure: Hans Morgenthau emphasized national interest defined as power. 2. Neoliberalism: ○ Sees the international system as an arena for peaceful cooperation. ○ Prominent advocate: President Woodrow Wilson (League of Nations). 3. Constructivism: ○ Argues that international politics is shaped by perceptions, ideas, and cultural experience. International System: Structural Constants 1. Decentralization: ○ No central authority; states act based on self-interest. ○ Realist view: "Ordered anarchy," where power shifts dictate the rules. 2. Self-Help System: ○ States must rely on themselves for foreign policy goals. ○ Example: U.S. involvement in Vietnam demonstrated the risks of imbalanced goals and resources. 3. Stratification: ○ States are unequal in terms of power and resources. ○ Types of power distribution: unipolar, bipolar, multipolar systems. Evolutionary Trends in the International System 1. Diffusion of Power: ○ Hegemonic decline as power spreads globally (e.g., rise of Japan and Western Europe post-WWII). 2. Issue Proliferation: ○ Increasing overlap between high- and low-politics issues (e.g., climate change, human rights). ○ Intermestic issues: Problems that are both international and domestic (e.g., drug cartels, food safety). 3. Actor Proliferation: ○ Growth in the number of states and nonstate actors (NGOs, IGOs, etc.). 4. Regional Diversity: ○ Different subsystems (Western, North-South, East-West) present varied management challenges for U.S. foreign policy. Contemporary Challenges in the International System 1. Terrorism: ○ Fourth wave of terrorism (since 1979) driven by religious extremism (e.g., Islamic terrorism). ○ Adaptability of terrorist organizations (e.g., ISIS and Al-Qaeda). 2. Globalization: ○ Describes the interconnectedness of global economies and political systems. ○ Growing concerns about a backlash against globalization, leading to populism and nationalism. 3. American Hegemony: ○ Debate over whether the U.S. acts as an empire or a global government. ○ Challenges to U.S. dominance include the rise of China and Russia. America and the World: Attitudes and Perceptions Global Opinion on U.S. Foreign Policy: ○ Discrepancy between American views on considering other countries' interests and global perceptions (e.g., Pakistan vs. the Philippines). ○ Varied perceptions of global threats, including climate change, cyberattacks, and U.S. power. Looking Ahead: U.S. Foreign Policy and Global Trends (2035) National Intelligence Council Predictions: ○ Increased global disorder and competition (e.g., China and Russia challenging U.S. influence). ○ Growing complexity of international issues and the need for cooperation. ○ Fragmentation of global citizenry, complicating democratic governance and policy-making. Detailed Notes on Chapter 9: Dateline: Iran Crises Introduction to International Crises Definition: International crises involve situations with high surprise, high threat, and short response times. ○ Characterized by an action-reaction cycle: One side’s action prompts a quick response from the other, leading to escalation and potential loss of control, often moving toward conflict or war. ○ Example: The June 2019 U.S.-Iran conflict. § U.S. Aim: Denuclearization and possibly regime change. § Iran’s Aim: Ending economic sanctions. Chronology of Events Leading to the Downing of a U.S. Drone by Iran 1. May 8, 2018: ○ The U.S. withdraws from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. ○ Iran responds by continuing to follow the agreement's terms. 2. May 21, 2018: ○ U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo presents 12 demands for Iran to meet in a new agreement. 3. August 7, 2018: ○ The U.S. initiates the first round of economic sanctions against Iran. 4. November 5, 2018: ○ The second round of sanctions is announced. 5. April 8, 2019: ○ The U.S. designates Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group. ○ Iran designates the U.S. Central Command as a terrorism group in retaliation. 6. May 5, 2019: ○ National Security Advisor Bolton announces U.S. deployment of an aircraft carrier and bombers to the Middle East. ○ Potential military action is threatened by Trump. 7. May 8, 2019: ○ The U.S. announces a new round of sanctions. ○ Iran plans to increase uranium enrichment, violating the 2015 agreement. 8. May 12, 2019: ○ Sabotage of four ships, including two Saudi oil tankers. ○ Iran labels the incidents "alarming and regrettable." 9. May 14, 2019: ○ Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, attack a Saudi oil pipeline. ○ The U.S. and Saudi Arabia blame Iran, which denies involvement. 10. May 19, 2019: ○ Rocket lands near the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. ○ Trump tweets a warning of the "official end of Iran" if Iran seeks conflict. 11. May 24, 2019: ○ Trump orders 1,500 more U.S. troops to the Middle East. 12. June 13, 2019: ○ Two tankers are attacked in the Gulf of Oman. ○ A video shows Iranian patrol boats near one tanker, which raises accusations against Iran, though Iran denies responsibility. 13. June 17, 2019: ○ Iran announces it will breach uranium enrichment limits from the 2015 nuclear deal. ○ The U.S. deploys 1,000 additional troops to the Middle East. 14. June 20, 2019: ○ Iran shoots down a U.S. RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance drone, claiming it entered Iranian airspace. ○ The U.S. denies the claim, saying the drone was in international airspace. U.S. Decision-Making on Military Action Initial Response: ○ After Iran shoots down the drone, Trump, Bolton, Pompeo, and military advisors consider a military response. ○ Trump supports military action initially but hesitates after learning about potential casualties. June 20, 2019, Events: ○ Around 11:00 a.m., military and administration officials review response options. ○ Trump tweets Iran made a “big mistake.” ○ Two hours before a military strike is scheduled, Trump cancels it due to concerns about civilian casualties (estimated 150). Aftermath and Action-Reaction Cycle U.S. Secret Cyberstrike: The U.S. conducts a cyberattack against the Iranian database used to target ships in the Persian Gulf. UK-Iran Retaliation: ○ The UK seizes an Iranian tanker headed to Syria, violating EU sanctions. ○ Iran retaliates by seizing a British tanker. Iran's Nuclear Moves: ○ Iran begins exceeding uranium enrichment limits. ○ The U.S. responds with further threats of sanctions. ○ Houthi rebels, allegedly supported by Iran, attack Saudi oil facilities, escalating tensions further. Action-Reaction Cycles in Historical Context Comparison to World War I: ○ Small actions led to major escalation due to the action-reaction cycle, showing how conflicts can spiral out of control. ○ Lessons: Historical action-reaction cycles can inform understanding of current crises like the Iran-U.S. conflict. Foreign Policy Decision-Making Models Models help explain foreign policy decisions: ○ Rational Actor Model: States respond as unitary, rational actors to external events, aiming for value-maximizing choices. ○ Bureaucratic Politics Model: Policy decisions are influenced by internal government bargaining. ○ Small-Group Decision-Making: Focuses on group dynamics, potentially leading to phenomena like groupthink. Applying Models to the Iran Crisis The action-reaction cycle in the U.S.-Iran crisis can be analyzed using these models, particularly the rational actor model, which shows how calculated moves lead to escalating tensions, with both sides acting on their own strategic goals. Critical Thinking questions How did the U.S. shift from non-interventionism to imperialism at the turn of the century? ○ The shift began with the Spanish-American War in 1898, marking America's first major foreign conflict. ○ America took control of Spanish colonies like Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines. ○ Theodore Roosevelt and other imperialist leaders believed the U.S. needed to engage in global politics to gain power. ○ The war was seen as an opportunity to break from George Washington's tradition of non-intervention and expand America's role globally. What were the arguments for and against U.S. involvement in the Spanish-American War and subsequent imperial actions? ○ For: § Expansionists like McKinley, Roosevelt, and Lodge promoted the "large policy" to increase America’s global influence. § They argued that America had a duty to civilize and uplift places like the Philippines. ○ Against: § Critics like William Graham Sumner argued that imperialism betrayed America's founding values. § The Anti-Imperialist League warned that expansion would lead to militarism, debt, and higher taxes. How did World War I further solidify the U.S.'s role as a global power? ○ Woodrow Wilson’s leadership promoted America as a global leader in spreading democracy. ○ Wilson viewed it as America’s duty to stand with other nations and lead them towards freedom. ○ America’s involvement in World War I marked a turning point, moving from non- interventionism to a more active role in global affairs. Lecture 2 2024-09-17 8:58 PM Missions Missions are fundamental long-term objectives that a country claims to pursue in its foreign policy. Most Americans share a consensus on the missions, national interests, and principles of U.S. foreign policy. Since the founding of the United States, many Americans have believed in American exceptionalism, the idea that the U.S. is different from other countries. John Adams (2nd President, 1797- 1801): The United States is “destined beyond a doubt to be the greatest power on Earth.” Thomas Jefferson (3rd President, 1801-1809): The United States is “the last best hope of mankind” and a “barrier against the return of ignorance and barbarism”. Americans believed that the U.S. was a sanctuary and refuge for oppressed peoples around the world and provided them with a glimmer of hope. The United States served as a model for others to emulate. By the end of the Second World War (1939-45), U.S. foreign policy had become more interventionist due to this sense of mission. ○ Before it was isolationist The United States became an active promoter of liberal democracy, free market economics, and Western values globally. National interests NI are concreate objectives of foreign policy Scholars have identified six different national interests at the heart of American Foreign Policy 1. Power 2. Military security and/or advantage 3. Economic strength a. Can lead to first two 4. Ideology: Promoting democracy and capitalism around the world a. Ex. US. b. Liberals say creates interdependence 5. Morality and the rule of law: A somewhat hypocritical record 6. Cultural identity: Americans have an affinity for similar cultures abroad Principles Principles are the beliefs and premises that a country claims underlie its foreign policy. Throughout American history, four fundamental principles have guided U.S. foreign policy. 1. Isolationism a. Prior to the Second World War, the U.S. rarely sought close alignment with other states. b. Furthermore, the U.S. rarely intervened in the political affairs of states outside the Western Hemisphere. c. The U.S. attempted to avoid entanglement in the great power conflicts which embroiled Europe. d. Isolationism permitted Americans to focus on territorial and economic growth and develop a sense of uniqueness. e. But perhaps the U.S. was not as isolationist throughout history as many Americans believe. 2. Moralism a. The nation’s founders believed that the U.S. government and foreign policy were superior to those of other states. b. During the 19th century, many Americans believed in ‘manifest destiny’: it was a divinely mandated U.S. obligation to expand and acquire all North American territory. c. During the late 19th and early 20th centuries, many Americans argued that U.S. interventions abroad were done in the name of liberty and justice. d. Throughout the 20th century, promoting democracy became a rationalization for American interventionism. e. There is also a perception that the United States represents ‘good’ in the world and has to stand up to ‘evil’ adversaries. 3. Pragmatism a. A realist view: A friend today could become a foe tomorrow, and vice versa. b. Despite moralistic claims, U.S. foreign policy has frequently been pragmatic in terms of doing what is necessary to fulfill American national interests. 4. Unilateralism a. Throughout most of its history, the U.S. has tended to embrace unilateralism, acting alone and independently, usually without consulting other states. b. After the two world wars of the 20th century, the U.S. began to favour multilateralism. Competing themes 1. Idealism vs. Realism a. Should U.S. foreign policy be based on visions of how the world ought to be, or be oriented to deal with the world the way it actually is? 2. Isolationism vs. Involvement a. Should the U.S. avoid entanglement in foreign affairs, or should it intervene to influence international relations? 3. Unilateralism vs. Multilateralism a. Should the U.S. act on its own or in concert with other states? 7 Sins of American Foreign Policy (Loch Johnson) 1. Ignorance. 2. Executive branch dominance. 3. Excessive emphasis on the military. 4. Unilateralism. 5. Isolationism. 6. Lack of empathy. 7. Arrogance. Lecture 1 2024-09-17 7:05 PM Key dimensions of FP Analysis Three images (Kenneth Waltz) ○ Individual level § Examine cognition, perception, choices, values, emotions, biases, and idiosyncrasies of key decision-makers § Can create a psychological profile ○ State level § Analyze the substate actors and institutions that influence foreign policy-making □ Want to understand domestic politics □ How does relationships between actors present itself § Congress, the political parties, interest groups, the foreign policy bureaucracy, the military. ○ Systemic level § Investigate the influence of the international system on foreign policy. § E.g., Changes in the international distribution of power; trends in globalization □ Can be changes from war, systemic changes due to technological development, social media ○ All three images allow you to understand IR at a deeper level Three decision making models Rational actor model ○ Policy-makers select the foreign policy option with the most benefits and least costs ○ Policy-makers have bounded rationality: due to limited time and information, decision- makers select the first satisfactory option that they encounter. Organizational process model ○ Policy-makers in a governmental agency usually rely on standard operating procedures (SOPs) to make decisions. Bureaucratic politics model ○ Foreign policy decisions result from the bargaining process between government agencies with divergent interests. Five Paradigms 1. Realism: ○ Classical Realism: § States are concerned with maximizing their power relative to other states. § It is assumed that the national government derives rational decisions that maximize the power of the state and serve the national interest. □ Sometimes decisions can be poor, but no government would rationally choose the worse option for the state ○ Structural Realism: § States respond to changes in the international distribution of power. □ Hegemony is one way for peace and security □ Or regional hegemony □ Or balance of power ○ Neoclassical Realism: § The responses of states to systemic trends are conditioned by domestic factors (individual cognition, political culture, domestic politics). □ Three images 2. Liberalism: ○ All three levels of analysis are critical for understanding foreign policy. § Who controls national government… ○ Multiple domestic actors influence foreign policy. Causes of Peace and Order in IR Realism: Global hegemony or regional hegemony or balances of power Liberalism: Interdependence, international institutions, and the spread of democracy Power Vs Ideas 3. Constructivism a. Examines how ideas, interests and ideas are socially constructed, how they change, and how they impact foreign policy making i. Democracy, human rights b. Foreign policy is influenced by norms, institutions, and identities which people have socially constructed 4. Marxism a. Capitalism fuels imperialist expansion i. Why help Kuwait under Iraq control but not other countries? Financial interests? b. US. Hegemony was supported by dominant classes who promoted social vision that falsely claims to serve the interests of everyone, but actually benefits the dominant classes. i. People do not fight against ruling class because they are fed a false social vision c. Explains economic exploitation 5. Feminism a. Critiques the androcentric nature of IR b. Identities and interests have been defined by men c. Female perspectives and contributions to IR have been downplayed or ignored NATIONAL INTERESTS TAKES PRIORITY