Age and Sex Structure of Population 2024 PDF

Age and sex: Structure of population NGO Thi Thuy Dung 1 OBJECTIVES OF THE LECTURE Describe the importance of the population structure based on age and sex Analyze characteristics of a population based on its demo...

Age and sex: Structure of population NGO Thi Thuy Dung 1 OBJECTIVES OF THE LECTURE Describe the importance of the population structure based on age and sex Analyze characteristics of a population based on its demographic pyramids Compare between population pyramids of developed and developing countries. 2 Structure of a Population This entry provides the distribution of the population according to age. Information is included by sex and age group as follows: 0-14 years (children), 15-64 years (working age), and 65 years and over (elderly). 3 Young vs. old. Does it matter? The age structure (and the sex structure) of a population influences population growth. Can you explain why? Size Adults Female Expected Total babies 1000 300 200 400 1400 1000 500 400 800 1800 1000 500 300 600 1600 4  Age-Sex: Structure of a Population Morbidity patterns Birth, Death, Migration Different generation: 198x vs 20-- Different age groups: < 15; 15 – 64; 65+ Male vs female Demographic Demographic Population at risk → processes structure policies 5 INDEX 6  Gender balance Sex ratio Male : female VIETNAM 2009 2014 2019 Male 42.413m 44.618m 47.881m Female 43.433m 45.874m 48.327m Sex ratio 0.976 0.973 0.99 7  Worldwide sex ratio 2024 Poland - 91 Japan -95 Germany - 98 Vietnam -101 China -104 India -106 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% Male Female 8 https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/sex-ratio/  99,5 VIETNAM SEX 99 RATIO 98,5 (1950 – 2019) 98 - =65 (67) 55-64 (86) 25 - 54 (102) 15 - 24 (106) 0 - 14 (109) Lúc sinh (110) 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% VN 2019 tổng điều tra dân số Nam Nữ 11  RULE OF SEX RATIO Age group Vietnam China India Japan Poland At birth 110 109 110 106 106 64 069 086 085 079 067 0 TuổI 18 tuổi 60 tuổi 105 – 106 100 70 12 https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/sex-ratio/ Sex Ratio at Birth: Imbalance 13 Worldwide 14  Sex Ratio at Birth Imbalance: Vietnam 2006 - 2014 15 Factbook- 2018 Sex ratio at birth Imbalance in Viet Nam: the 2019 Census 16 Sex Ratio at Birth Imbalance in Viet Nam: the 2019 Census UNFPA: https://youtu.be/5qXaUK8VoEY 17  Sex Ratio at Birth Imbalance in China – Consequence 10 years, a shortage of 40-60 million women 18 Sex Ratio at Birth Imbalance: Cause – Consequence Adolescent marriage in females Late/no marriage in males Prostitution, human trafficking Gender inequality Gendercide Population aging 19 How to reduce sex ratio imbalance? 20  RULE OF SEX RATIO Age group Vietnam China India Japan Poland At birth 110 109 110 106 106 64 069 086 085 079 067 0 TuổI 18 tuổi 60 tuổi 105 – 106 100 70 21 https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/sex-ratio/ Rule: higher mortality in males? Body size: larger Disease susceptibility: High proportion in males: trauma, suicide, respiratory cancer, chronic liver disease and coronary heart disease Immune-related genes on the X chromosome → high change in women: inflammation and cancer Cardiovascular disease: Estrogen increases HDL and decreases LDL Bad behavior: smoking, staying up late, drinking alcohol → hypertension, cirrhosis. High–risk occupations Weak social ties 22 23 24 Rule: higher mortality in males? Analysis method and evidence: Comparing population structure by age Comparing mortality rates by gender Gender Life Expectancy Comparison 25 Difference in life expectancy at birth VN 26 https://www.statista.com/statistics/974763/life-expectancy-at-birth-in-vietnam-by-gender/  WORLDWIDE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH 2024 Total Female Male 1 Hong Kong 85.63 88.26 82.97 2 Japan 84.85 87.88 81.83 3 South Korea 84.43 87.28 81.32 4 French Polynesia 84.19 86.62 81.90 5 Switzerland 84.09 85.95 82.17 … 98 Vietnam 74.74 79.38 70.05 123 India 72.24 73.86 70.73 27 28 Aging population vs old/elderly population? Opportunities? Challenges? 29 Populations are getting older 2015 2050 VN: Distribution of older population by age group, 2009 and 2019 + 3.96 million https://vietnam.unfpa.org  Population aging index P ≥ 60 yrs Ratio = --------------------------- x 100 P < 15 yrs 32  Population aging index Population aging process: Ratio: P ≥ 60 yrs/ 60+ > 10% Proportion of P < 15 yrs 60+ 65+ > 7% VN: 60+ (2009): 9,5%. Proportion of 60+ (2011): >10% → population 65+ aging in VN 33 VN population aging Getting old before getting rich index: 34 Population aging index (3) 60+ ≥ 20% 65+ ≥14% 35 How these extra 20 years can be spent… ? … It all depends on HEALTH Proportion of older persons having difficulties in different functions, 2009 and 2019 HẬU QUẢ CỦA GIÀ HÓA DÂN SỐ 38 Working age - Active population 39 40 VN: Changes in the % of population groups: 2009-2019 period Dependency ratio 41 Dependency ratio Child (youth) Children (0-14)/ 100 working- dependency age population (15-64). ratio Elderly Elderly (65+)/ 100 working-age dependency population (15-64). ratio Total Dependents/ 100 working-age dependency population ratio 42  Dependency Ratio Population below 15 years Young dependency ratio = X 100 Population aged between 15 − 65 years Population above 65 years Old.dependency.ratio = X 100 Population between 15 − 65 years Total dependency ratio = Population below15 years + those above 65 years X 100 Population aged between15 − 65 years 43  Dependency ratio CHÂU PHI NHẬT NGƯỜI LAO ĐỘNG 10 NGƯỜI LO CHO 10 NGƯỜI LO CHO 5 NGƯỜI 44 45 Demographic window % working – age: ≥ 66% Demographic bonus, Demographic dividend Dependence ratio < 1/2 ONE-TIME ONLY 46 Dân số vàng và tỉ số phụ thuộc 47 GIAI ĐOẠN DÂN SỐ VÀNG: 48  49 POPULATION PYRAMID  50 https://youtu.be/RZhv-4AYHlg 51 52 Age at first Initial 20 yrs later 30 yrs later 40 yrs later 50 yrs later 60 yrs later reproductio reproductio n n 20yrs Generation 1 Gen 2: 4 Gen 3: 8 Gen 4: 16 : 2 offsprings 30yrs Generation 1 Gen 2: 4 Gen 3: 8 : 2 offsprings 53 HOW TO ANALYSE A POPULATION PYRAMD 1. Shape 2. Events 3. Age groups 4. Median age 5. Sex ratio 54 HOW TO ANALYSE A POPULATION PYRAMD: 1. Shape 55 CÁCH ĐỌC THÁP TUỔI (1) 56  HOW TO Chiến tranh Trung – Nhật 1938 - 1939 ANALYSE A POPULATION PYRAMD: 2. Events 57  WW 1 Babyboom 58 HOW TO ANALYSE A POPULATION PYRAMD: 3. Age groups Youth: 0 – 14yrs Training time Working age: 15 – 64 yrs Labors, Elderly: 65+ Retire 59 HOW TO ANALYSE A POPULATION PYRAMD: 4. Median age 60  Median age Quốc Gia Tuổi Trung Vị 1 – Monaco 53.8 2 – Japan 47.7 3 – Germany 47.4 113 - Vietnam 30.9 218 – Burkina Faso 17.4 228 - Niger 15.5 61 HOW TO ANALYSE A POPULATION PYRAMD: 5. Sex ratio 62 The importance of the population pyramids 1. Sex ratio: Percentage of males and females. 2. Age structure: Base denotes births (broad or narrow base) Apex denotes elderly 3. Mortality and emigration: Shape of sides (sloping or steep). 4. Life expectancy: (Average number of years that a newborn is expected to live if current mortality rates continue to apply) Height of the pyramid and shape of the apex. 63 The importance of the population pyramids 5. Median Age: (lower or higher) 6. Dependency Ratio: Young dependency: Proportion of population below 15 years of age. Old dependency: Proportion of population above 65 years of age. Total dependency: Proportion of population below 15 years of age plus the proportion of population above 65 years of age. 64 Vietnam: Population pyramids by year 2019, 2039, 2069 Window opportunity Ended period of window Aged population → super aged opportunity population 65  VN: 2019 Demographic dividend + population aging Feminization trend in elderly 66  VN: 2039 Increase people aged 65+ + narrow bottom 67  VN: 2069 A narrowing bottom → decline fertility >> aged 80+ 68 69 70