Chapter 8: A Look into the Future PDF

Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material Chapter 8: A look into the Future 1. What about the future? Futurology? The future is essenBally “unknowable” Nevertheless, major trends are foreseeable so that 1. Educated guesses about likely direcBons and s...

Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material Chapter 8: A look into the Future 1. What about the future? Futurology? The future is essenBally “unknowable” Nevertheless, major trends are foreseeable so that 1. Educated guesses about likely direcBons and scenarios under “no change” policies are possible o Assuming policies won’t change 2. Policy changes to avoid undesirable scenarios and to a;ain wanted scenarios can be formulated o Major policy shi` 3. Helpful changes in collecBve and individual behavior can be listed “Scenario planning” (a tool inspired by military intelligence methods) is one way of combining informaBon about known facts with assumpBons on key driving forces o Plan in advance what will be the adequate response if something happens Development pathways: 20th century development models focused primarily on economic growth through an increase of producBon and less government regulaBon Economical/ material growth in rich countries Now the majority of the world populaBons lives in middle income countries (have moved out of low income) But there is a price paid for the increase of material wellbeing (things that where mostly ignored) o Natural resource limits o PolluBon damage (externaliBes, commons problems, …) Some believed that natural resources are not finite in any real economic sense, and that more scarcity would increase prices and lead to reduced use, subsBtuBon, etc. Nowadays, models focus on sustainable growth and integrate natural resource scarcity and environmental costs ExternaliBes and commons issues need to be taken into account in order to make development and growth “sustainable” (quality of life for next generaBons) E.g., the development of the Adjusted Net Savings concept 2. Current outlook: business as usual 2.1. key trends Global extreme poverty has decreased significantly (Lecture 2) But the progress seems to have come to standsBll It is unlikely that global poverty will be eliminated by 2030 Global DGP has risen enormously (Lecture 2) But global income inequality remains large GlobalisaBon has had posiBve and negaBve effects 71 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material The global populaBon keeps on increasing (Lecture 3) An ageing populaBon in high-income (and emerging) economies Youth bulges in low-income countries Agricultural producBvity has increased significantly and there is enough food for everyone (Lecture 4) But hunger and undernourishment sBll exist Future agricultural producBon faces several threats The demand for energy is high and increasing (Lecture 5) Fossil fuels remain the most important source of energy, especially in emerging economies The main challenge will be the next energy transiBon Climate change and global warming are already happening (Lecture 5) Energy consumpBon (fossil fuel use) is the main cause InternaBonal collaboraBon is required, but difficult There are many forms of environmental damage and depleBon of natural resources (Lecture 6) Environmental issues involve air, water, land, waste, … Overstepping the boundaries could be dangerous Technological progress has brought a lot of benefits (Lecture 7) But there are also a lot of risks involved It is unlikely that there is a “technological fix” for everything 2.2. “Business as usual” scenario Following a “business as usual” scenario seems risky Can the growing world populaBon be fed? Will agriculture be sustainable? Will it be possible to saBsfy the growing needs for energy? Can dramaBc climate change be avoided? Can environmental collapse be avoided? => If we do not implement major policy shi`s (and we act like there is no major problem and conBnue like this), it becomes likely that climate change will become dramaBc or some parts of the environment will collapse More a;enBon needs to be given to sustainable development Our wealth (especially natural wealth) must be maintained o Also in the longer term future We must stay within the boundaries of the planetary system 3. The living planet report The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and Zoological Society of London (ZSL) have studied for many years how human acBvity is affecBng our natural environment In cooperaBon with the Global Footprint Network and a broad range of scienBsts and insBtuBons they produce a two-yearly publicaBon: Living Planet Report 72 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material Assessment of the current situaBon on earth, focusing on nature and the role of natural resources & Looking ahead in the future (what needs to be done to prevent bad things happening) Two research quesBons: 1. How is biodiversity evolving? o Is a sign for the health/ wellbeing of the planet 2. Is the carrying capacity of the earth sufficient to sustain human consumpBon? o EsBmate: are we not overexploiBng our natural environment? Are we not using to much of the earth? 3.1. Living Planet Report 2022 Three parts: 1. The challenge 2. The current situaBon 3. The policy opBons Two quanBtaBve indicators: Living Planet Index o Measuring the biodiversity by one number Ecological Footprint More data than in previous reports This report assesses the situaBon up to 2018 Chapter 1: The global double emergency We are living through climate and biodiversity crises: these are not separate from each other but are two sides of the same coin Land-use change is sBll the most important driver of biodiversity loss The cascading impacts of climate change are already affecBng the natural world Unless we limit warming to 1.5%, climate change is likely to become the dominant cause of biodiversity loss in the coming decades Three photo stories explore how communiBes use the knowledge to adapt to local changes in climate and biodiversity Chapter 2: Assessment of the current situaBon Chapter 3: Building a nature-posiBve society 1. The challenge The report builds upon insights from the recent IPCC report Climate Change 2022. Impacts, AdaptaBon, and Vulnerability Climate change increases the risk of biodiversity loss o It can speed up biodiversity loss 73 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material 2. The current situaFon The Living Planet Index (LPI) is presented as an ‘early warning indicator’ for the health of the planet The LPI = a biodiversity index that measures how populaBons of species have evolved over Bme New in this report: more species, more scienBfic informaBon o 838 new species and 11,011 new populaBons o Non-English sources (mainly in Portuguese about Brazil) Global evoluBon: -69%!! between 1970 and 2018 o Large decrease in the LPI!! 3. Policy opFons In 2022 the General Assembly of the UN has declared access to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment a universal human right How can this right be guaranteed? The ulBmate cause of the threat to our natural environment is the pressure exerted by humanity This pressure can be measured by comparing the Ecological Footprint (EF) (demand) to the exisBng Biocapacity (BC) (supply) 3.2. Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity The concept of the EF (and BC) was developed in 1992 by William Rees and Mathis Wackernagel (University of BriBsh Columbia) Thanks to a campaign of BriBsh Petroleum in 2005 the idea of the carbon footprint came under the a;enBon of the wider public In the Living Planet Report 2022 the concept has a less prominent place than in previous reports Ecological footprint: grazing land footprint, forest product footprint, fishing grounds footprint, cropland footprint, built-up footprint, carbon footprint 6 categories of consumpBon translated in areas of land we need to saBsfy Ex: carbon footprint in term of trees: how many forests do we need to capture all the CO2 that we release in the atmosphere Today the ecologic footprint > biocapacity!! Graph Maps every country, the size of the dots is proporBonal with the populaBon if the countries Human development index: a good measurement of the wellbeing of people Economical footprint per capita on the y-axis We want to achieve a world with a high level of human development, but with a low ecological footprint o No country achieves this! As countries develop, the ecological footprint also increases (more consumpBon of energy, resources…) 74 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material 3.3. Cri5cism of the Ecological Footprint Linus Blomqvist, Barry W. Brook, Erle C. Ellis, Peter M. Kareiva, Ted Nordhaus, Michael Shellenberger (2013), “Does the shoe fit? Real versus imagined Ecological Footprints”, PLoS Biology, 11(11): e1001700 Robert R. Richardson (2019), “Resource depleBon is a serious problem, but ‘footprint’ esBmates don’t tell us much about it”, The ConversaBon, 24 July 2019 Global Footprint Network Research Team (2020), Ecological Footprint AccounBng: LimitaBons and CriBcism, August 2020 – Version 1.0 4. Collapse and sustainable development Collapse warnings are not new Rachel Carson (1962) Silent Spring Paul Ehrlich (1968) The PopulaBon Bomb Donella Meadows et al. (1972) The Limits to Growth (Club of Rome) Jared Diamond (2005) Collapse Warnings tend to OveresBmate the pace of destrucBon (price mechanism) Overlook unanBcipated technological innovaBons (e.g., Green RevoluBon) But current trends (populaBon, consumpBon, …) combined with natural resource limits necessitate a focus on sustainable development Current generaBons should not compromise future generaBons Two principal opBons to avoid collapse 1. Improve producBon within sustainable limits (technology) o The first opBon involves major changes and efficiency improvements in producBon 2. Reduce demand by slowing populaBon growth and by adopBng lifestyles that are less harmful for the environment o The second opBon involves drasBc changes in habits and behaviour “Governance” will be crucial 4.1. Governance “The process a society uses to achieve commonly desired goals and to se;le conflicts among groups with different interests plays a central role in determining what the future will be like and how well we will work toward common interests.” (Hite & Seitz: 320) Important aspects include:Inequality, role of communiBes, internaBonal cooperaBon, inclusivity 5. To sum up It is difficult to predict the future, but scenarios can be developed to deal with global trends Achieving sustainable development remains a huge challenge Major changes in technology and/or behaviour will be required in order to avoid collapse Governance will play a central role 75 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year? Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)