Emerging Africa 2024-2025 PDF

Emerging Africa in the framework of the sustainable development goals A.A. 2024-2025 UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI ROMA LA SAPIENZA PROF. JEAN-LÉONARD TOUADI I. Why Africa today  I.1 Changing Africa...

Emerging Africa in the framework of the sustainable development goals A.A. 2024-2025 UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI ROMA LA SAPIENZA PROF. JEAN-LÉONARD TOUADI I. Why Africa today  I.1 Changing Africa Africa has been Economic recovery, in changing fast over the turn, fostered a past fifteen to twenty The turnaround of dramatic years. Both the economic improvement in the growth performances performances began way the continent was and the international as early as the mid- perceived and image of the continent 1990s and led to a represented by the went through number of sub- international media, surprising U-turns, Saharan countries where talk of ‘Africa from widespread achieving record rising’ or ‘emerging stagnation and growth rates for the Africa’ became pessimism to better part of the gradually more unprecedented following decade. frequent, stimulating progress and new a growing interest in prospects. the region.  I.1 Changing Africa What was largely a neglected continent during the 1990s, from around 2000 became the terrain of a new scramble for positioning by advanced as well as emerging economies. Over the past decade six of the World’s ten fastest growing economies were African. In eight of the past ten years Africa has grown faster than East Asia, including Japan (Africa has a fast growing middle class with around 60 million Africans having an income of $3,000 per year with 100 million expected to have reached middle income status by 2015-almost the same as in India now. The rate of foreign investment has increased about tenfold in the past decade. Increased Chinese involvement in Africa has improved Africa’s infrastructure and boosted its manufacturing sector. Other non-Western countries such as Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia and India are following its lead (The Economist, 2011).  Emerging Africa (R. Mudida) In the year 2000, the World Bank published an influential book posing the question: can Africa claim the 21st century? (World Bank, 2000). This was a pertinent question at the time since Africa had experienced two decades of economic stagnation between the years 1980 and 2000. African citizens were, on average, poorer in real terms in the year 2000 than they were two decades earlier. Since the turn of the century, however, Africa has been emerging economically, politically, socially and technologically. A much larger proportion of Africa’s 1.2 billion people in the year 2020 are in the middle class than was the case only a decade ago and poverty rates have almost halved compared to 1990 (Robertson, 2012). Development outcomes related to health and education have greatly improved over the past two decades. Africa is now much better governed than was the case in the first four decades after independence when authoritarian regimes abounded in more than half of Africa’s states (Rotberg, 2013). Many of these authoritarian regimes in Africa collapsed in the 1990s and were replaced by more democratic ones. Emerging Africa (Robert Mudida) African states are trying to find a more articulate and Overall, these new realities assertive voice on the global have contributed to an “Africa stage in areas such as rising” narrative that is being international trade, global increasingly more boldly environmental policy and the internalised by its citizens and jurisdiction of the International governments. An emerging Criminal Court. They are Africa has also been striving to increasing seeking out non- assert itself on the global traditional development stage and cope with the new partners such as China, Russia realities presented by and Brazil while also globalisation. continuing to develop relations with traditional partners. Emerging Africa (Robert Mudida) Despite these encouraging signs, however, an emerging Africa For example, poverty is much continues to struggle in the age of For example, debates persist more pronounced in the Central globalisation. African states seek about the true depth of African African region than in the rest of to address a lot of challenges democratisation. It is often Africa. Inequality is more evident posed by the new global order asserted that African in Southern Africa than the rest of such as international terrorism and democratisation is concerned Africa. In 2019, for example, South global pandemics. These more with form rather than Africa was the most unequal challenges represent part of a substance. The issue is further country in the world. There is complex global reality in which complicated by the fact that ultimately no such concept as “one African states increasingly find diverse African states and regions Africa.” Rather, there are 55 themselves. Opportunities are have very distinct realities. different African states, each with often accompanied by massive very distinct realities. obstacles that still remain to be over- come.  ► A popular theme emerging over the past Emerging decade is that of “African solutions to African problems.” Whereas it is certainly important Africa to contextualise African solutions to local realities, many challenges faced by African (Robert states reflect a broader and more interdependent global realities (Cheru, Mudida) 2002). This underscores the linkages between challenges in Africa and the rest of the world.  ► Ultimately, the ability of African states to Emerging come up with solutions that are both specific to sub-regional realities yet reflect an Africa increasing African and global interdependence will be vital. Insights from (Robert comparative public policy from different regions of the world will be extensively Mudida) utilised in the book when analysing distinct African opportunities and challenges. THE SIX MEGATRENDS The Six Megatrend s AFRICA’S PEOPLE WILL BE YOUNG. BY 2050, THE POPULATION OF THE CONTINENT, INCLUDING SUB-SAHARAN AND NORTH AFRICA, WILL DOUBLE TO REACH 2.5 BILLION. AS MUCH AS 60% OF AFRICA’S PEOPLE WILL BE UNDER 25. A HUGE WORKING-AGE POPULATION CAN BE A DISRUPTIVE FORCE, LEADING TO UNREST AND MIGRATION IF THERE ARE INSUFFICIENT JOBS. BUT WITH AMPLE OPPORTUNITY, THE YOUTHFUL DEMOGRAPHICS CAN HELP CATALYZE ECONOMIC GROWTH, PARTICULARLY IN DOMAINS THAT REQUIRE MOTIVATED AND SKILLED LABOR, SUCH AS MANUFACTURING, ENERGY (ESPECIALLY THE TRANSITION TO GREEN SOURCES), AND DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY.  AFRICA’S PEOPLE WILL BE YOUNG. The six WITH ITS YOUNG POPULATION AND AN ESTIMATED COMBINED GDP OF $2.96 TRILLION IN 2022, AFRICA IS POISED TO BECOME THE Megatren WORLD’S LARGEST GROWTH MARKET FOR CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES. IT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A PRIMARY RESOURCE ds FOR TALENT, EXPORTING DIGITAL NATIVES AND SKILLED LABOR TO THE REST OF THE WORLD. THESE BRIGHT FUTURES CAN ONLY COME TO PASS, HOWEVER, IF THE REGION’S EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, SUPPORTED BY GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT, CAN PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SCHOOLING, SKILLS TRAINING, AND RELATED SERVICES—A TASK THAT COULD REQUIRE AS MANY AS 17 MILLION ADDITIONAL PROFESSIONAL EDUCATORS  AFRICA’S PEOPLE WILL BE YOUNG. The Six WITH ITS YOUNG POPULATION AND AN ESTIMATED COMBINED GDP OF $2.96 TRILLION Megatren IN 2022, AFRICA IS POISED TO BECOME THE WORLD’S LARGEST GROWTH MARKET FOR CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES. IT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A PRIMARY RESOURCE FOR ds TALENT, EXPORTING DIGITAL NATIVES AND SKILLED LABOR TO THE REST OF THE WORLD. THESE BRIGHT FUTURES CAN ONLY COME TO PASS, HOWEVER, IF THE REGION’S EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, SUPPORTED BY GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT, CAN PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SCHOOLING, SKILLS TRAINING, AND RELATED SERVICES—A TASK THAT COULD REQUIRE AS MANY AS 17 MILLION ADDITIONAL PROFESSIONAL EDUCATORS  ►AFRICA’S CITIES WILL BE CROWDED. The Six ►URBAN AREAS IN AFRICA WILL ATTRACT AN ADDITIONAL 1 BILLION RESIDENTS BY 2050. Megratrend EXPERTS FORECAST THE URBAN POPULATION TO TRIPLE AND THE NUMBER OF “MEGACITIES” s —DENSELY SETTLED AREAS WITH 10 MILLION OR MORE RESIDENTS—TO INCREASE FROM THREE (CURRENTLY CAIRO, KINSHASA, AND LAGOS) TO 14. ►THE GROWTH OF AFRICAN CITIES WILL ADD VIBRANCY TO THE ECONOMY AND CULTURE OF THE REGION, ATTRACTING SIGNIFICANT FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND STRENGTHENING GLOBAL BUSINESS AND TRADE TIES. The Six Megatrends Africa’s cities will be crowded. When urbanization occurs this abruptly, it can destabilize a region; it can be challenging to provide basic services such as electric power and education, along with transportation links. However, if investment in infrastructure can occur rapidly enough, then urbanization tends to accelerate GDP and consumer spending, facilitate entrepreneurship and innovation, create new markets, and increase worker productivity. It can also lead to greater interchange between the government, the private sector, and the employee base.  THE CONTINENT WILL BE VULNERABLE TO The Six CLIMATE CHANGE. DESPITE CONTRIBUTING LESS THAN 4% TO GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS, 35 OF THE 50 COUNTRIES MOST AT RISK FROM CLIMATE Megratre CHANGE EFFECTS ARE LOCATED IN AFRICA. THE CONTINENT CAN EXPECT A TEMPERATURE INCREASE THAT WILL OCCUR 1.5 TIMES FASTER THAN THE GLOBAL AVERAGE INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO TOTAL DEGLACIATION OF AFRICA’S nds MOUNTAINOUS AREAS BY 2050, RISING SEA LEVELS ALONG THE COASTS, AND MORE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, INCLUDING DROUGHTS, STORMS, FLOODS, AND EXCESSIVE HEAT AND COLD. THESE CHANGES WILL HAVE CATASTROPHIC IMPACT ON BIODIVERSITY AND ANIMAL HABITATS— ESPECIALLY WORRYING BECAUSE AFRICA IS HOME TO 25% OF THE WORLD’S REMAINING RAINFORESTS.  THE CONTINENT WILL BE VULNERABLE TO The Six CLIMATE CHANGE. MANY EXPERTS BELIEVE THAT CLIMATE- RELATED CHALLENGES COULD DRIVE AFRICA TO BECOME A CENTER OF INNOVATION, Megatren LEADING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOLUTIONS. AMONG THE POSSIBILITIES, WHICH COULD ADD UP TO A $320 BILLION INDUSTRIAL SECTOR IN AFRICA, ARE RENEWABLE ENERGY (BUILDING ds ON THE REGION’S ABUNDANCE OF SOLAR, WIND, AND GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES AND ITS EXPERIENCE WITH OFF-THE-GRID SOLAR SOLUTIONS), CARBON SEQUESTRATION (TAKING ADVANTAGE OF AFRICA’S LANDS, FORESTS, AND COASTLINES), AND NEW APPROACHES TO SUSTAINABLE LAND USE AND AGRICULTURE. ALL OF THESE ARE POTENTIAL VEHICLES FOR GREEN JOB CREATION.  ►AFRICA WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO DIGITAL The Six TECHNOLOGY. ►THIS WILL OCCUR MORE RAPIDLY THAN MANY PEOPLE Megatrends CURRENTLY EXPECT. AFRICA’S DIGITAL TECH SECTOR, INCLUDING SOFTWARE, CLOUD, AND INTERNET SERVICES, HAS EXPERIENCED TREMENDOUS GROWTH SINCE 2010. CURRENTLY, ITS FIVE-YEAR GROWTH RATE IS AT 47%. INTERNET PENETRATION HAS GROWN TENFOLD IN THE PAST 12 YEARS, AND THE INTERNET ECONOMY WILL REACH $712 BILLION BY 2050. ►THERE ARE MORE THAN 600 ACTIVE DIGITAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL HUBS ACROSS THE CONTINENT, ALL MAKING NOTABLE ADVANCES IN FOSTERING INNOVATION AND WITH BOTH HOME-GROWN AND GLOBAL COMPANIES PARTICIPATING. THE LARGEST CLUSTERS OF DIGITAL ACTIVITY ARE IN EGYPT, KENYA, NIGERIA, AND SOUTH AFRICA—WITH GHANA, MOROCCO, AND TUNISIA CLOSE BEHIND.  AFRICA WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY. WITH APPROPRIATE The Six INVESTMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE, UPSKILLING, AND EDUCATION, Megatrends AFRICA’S IMMENSE WORKING-AGE POPULATION COULD POSITION THE CONTINENT AS A LEADER IN DIGITAL SERVICES.  THE REGION WILL BE MORE OPEN TO The Six INTRACONTINENTAL COOPERATION. THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND SUBSEQUENT FOOD CRISIS HAVE Megatren DEMONSTRATED TO AFRICAN DECISION-MAKERS IN THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS THAT THE ds CONTINENT NEEDS TO BECOME MORE SELF-SUFFICIENT. ITS COUNTRIES AND BUSINESSES NEED TO COOPERATE MORE AND REDUCE THEIR RELIANCE ON INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. A FEW INITIATIVES HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE AFRICA IN THIS DIRECTION.  THE REGION WILL BE MORE OPEN TO The Six INTRACONTINENTAL COOPERATION. THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND SUBSEQUENT FOOD CRISIS HAVE DEMONSTRATED TO AFRICAN DECISION-MAKERS IN THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE Megatren SECTORS THAT THE CONTINENT NEEDS TO BECOME MORE SELF-SUFFICIENT. ITS COUNTRIES AND BUSINESSES NEED TO COOPERATE MORE AND REDUCE THEIR RELIANCE ON INTERNATIONAL ds SUPPORT. A FEW INITIATIVES HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE AFRICA IN THIS DIRECTION. FOR EXAMPLE, IN 2018, 44 OF THE 55 AFRICAN COUNTRIES SIGNED THE AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AREA AGREEMENT (AFCFTA), ESTABLISHING THE WORLD’S LARGEST SUCH TRADE BLOC IN TERMS OF POPULATION AND LAND AREA, COVERING 1.3 BILLION PEOPLE. AS OF 2021, IT HAS BEEN SIGNED BY 54 MEMBER STATES AND IS GRADUALLY ADVANCING TO BECOMING OPERATIONAL.  The Six Megatrends Another indicator of support for intracontinental cooperation was the African Union’s adoption If the pact can overcome in 2015 of Agenda 2063, a complex hurdles of the blueprint for future The region will be more past—such as logistics, projects such as high- open to visas, and existing speed rail systems. There intracontinental barriers to trade—it could is also more interest in cooperation. produce substantial strengthening continental positive economic value. and regional organizations such as the AU, Southern African Development Community, and the Economic Community of West African States.  AFRICA WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE SOURCE OF INNOVATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP. ABOUT 22% OF WORKING- AGE AFRICANS START SMALL BUSINESSES, AS COMPARED The Six TO 18% IN LATIN AMERICA AND 13% IN ASIA. THE CONTINENT HAS A HISTORY OF BREAKTHROUGH INNOVATION IN RECENT YEARS, INCLUDING MOBILE PAYMENT AND DIGITAL Megatrends HEALTH CARE PLATFORMS. THE CONTINENT’S ENTREPRENEURIAL CULTURE IS ESPECIALLY PROMISING FROM THE STANDPOINT OF GENDER PARITY. WOMEN FROM AFRICA ARE TWICE AS LIKELY TO START AN ENTERPRISE AS WOMEN IN OTHER GEOGRAPHIES.  AFRICA WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE SOURCE The Six OF INNOVATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP. THIS RISE IN INNOVATION IS SUPPORTED BY THE CONTINENT’S DIGITAL HUBS, BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO INFORMATION AND Megatren COMMUNICATIONS ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN TECHNOLOGY. AFRICA BEGINNING TO FUEL TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE IN SECTORS SUCH AS ENERGY, IS ds HEALTH SERVICES, PHARMACEUTICALS, AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND LAND USE. IN FACT, THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR COULD GROW TO AS MUCH AS $320 BILLION PER YEAR IN ANNUAL REVENUES BY 2030, HELPING TO SOLVE THE CHALLENGES OF FOOD SHORTAGES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE. AFRICA COULD EVEN EVOLVE INTO A BREADBASKET FOR EUROPE AND THE MIDDLE EAST.  IF THESE MEGATRENDS CAN BE NAVIGATED SUCCESSFULLY, THEY COULD HELP IN ADVANCING AFRICA’S The Six SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROGRESS. THE WORLD HAS SEEN MANY EMERGING ECONOMIES PARLAY THEIR YOUNG POPULATIONS AND ENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRIT INTO INNOVATIVE GROWTH. WITH TARGETED INVESTMENT AND THOUGHTFUL Megatrends ACTION, THE SAME COULD BE TRUE FOR AFRICA. POLITICAL CHANGES  Political Changes Adebayo Olukali >, Cadernos RESULTED EITHER IN THE AMENDMENT OF EXISTING CONSTITUTIONS OR THE PRODUCTION OF ENTIRELY NEW ONES; THE END OF SINGLE PARTY/MILITARY RULE; THE RESTORATION OF MULTIPARTY POLITICS AND THE ORGANISATION OF MULTIPARTY de Estudios ELECTIONS; THE EMBRACE OF THE NOTION OF INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL COMMISSIONS; THE ADOPTION OF WIDESPREAD ELECTORAL REFORMS, INCLUDING MIXED LIST AND PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION SYSTEMS; THE ACHIEVEMENT BY A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF COUNTRIES OF A Africanos, 5/6 - PEACEFUL ALTERNATION OF POWER BETWEEN RULING PARTIES AND THEIR OPPONENTS; AND THE ORGANISATION OF REPEAT ELECTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED BY SOME AS A CRITICAL INDICATOR OF DEMOCRATIC CONSOLIDATION 2004 Political Changes 1. The Re- These changes were designed to open up the Structuring political space and in so doing, allow for greater competition in the struggle for political of the power. The ambition was to create a level Terrain of playing field for all political actors, make government more representative and Political accountable, allow for greater popular participation in national governance, and Competitio enrich the public space as an autonomous arena for the articulation of popular n and aspirations and/or the canvassing of policy Governance and political alternatives : Political Changes 2. The Emergence of Media Pluralism: Almost without exception, and as an integral part of the pressures for the opening up of the political space, the monopoly on media ownership exercised by the state was broken during the 1990s through the licensing by governments of private newspapers, radio stations (mostly FM stations), and television stations. Inroads were also made by digital satellite broadcasters and private internet service providers. Apart from representing a radical departure from the situation that prevailed previously, the development marked a new and important element in the promotion of political pluralism, governmental accountability, and popular participation Political Changes 3. The Efflorescence of Associational Life: Across Africa during the course of the last one and half decades, there has been a massive growth in the number and range of civil associations active in various spheres of life at the local, national, sub- regional and continental levels. Mostly set up as non-governmental organizations, they were seen by many as symbolizing the re-birth and vitality of civil society and, therefore, critical to the unfolding process of democratization on the continent. Equally importantly, the civic associations were seen by some scholars as central to the emergence of new political actors in Africa, actors who, by the fact of their insertion in the civic arena, played the critical role of underwriting the African democratic transition and, thus, contributed to the dawn of a new era in the affairs of the continent (Chazan, 1982, 1983; Bratton, 1989; Diamond, 1994) Political Changes 4. The Demise of the Last Vestiges of Colonial Rule and Institutionalised Racism in Africa: The persistence of (settler) colonialism in the Southern part of Africa and the institutionalised racial discrimination that went with it constituted the most important challenge to African nationalism and its agenda of the total liberation of the continent from foreign domination. Beginning with the independence of Zimbabwe in 1980 and culminating in the 1994 national elections in which the black majority in South Africa participated for the first time, the end of colonial rule and the collapse of formal apartheid unleashed new political forces and possibilities in the countries concerned; within Southern Africa and in the rest of Africa; this development also unleashed new processes and alliances. Political Changes If there was a perception that the unfinished business of national liberation prevented African countries from giving full attention to the challenges of overcoming their underdevelopment and The Demise of the Last Vestiges of dependence, the end of colonial rule and Colonial Rule and Institutionalised Racism apartheid was interpreted as marking the in Africa: end of an important phase in the history of the continent and the beginning of a new one in which concerns about African unity and development would pre- dominate.  Political Changes 5. The Revival of Regional Cooperation and Integration Efforts: There was a marked increase, in the period from the beginning of the 1990s, in the tempo of activities designed to promote sub-regional cooperation and integration in Africa both as an important exercise in its own right and as a building block towards pan-African economic unity. At the same time, new efforts were made to strengthen continental-level governance as evidenced, among other things, by the enabling of the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights, the outlawing by the defunct Organisation of African Unity (OAU) of the unlawful seizure of power and the exclusion from the counsels of the continental body of all governments installed other than by lawful means, the intensification of efforts at promoting pan-African conflict resolution mechanisms/peace-keeping instruments, and the transformation of the OAU into a new African Union (AU) complete with a pan-African parliament, a pan-African judicial system, and reinvigorated commission. Political Changes 6. The Changing Nature of Inter-State Relations: African countries attained independence in the 1960s on the basis of the inviolability of the boundaries they inherited a strict non-interference in the internal affairs of one another. These principles were, by and large, respected for some 30 years; in the 1990s however, they began seriously to be questioned and challenged in the wake of the crises that engulfed the Great Lakes region of the continent and which culminated in the invasion and occupation of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) by armies from several African countries. Armed conflicts in a number other countries, most notably Liberia and Sierra Leone, further eroded the principle of non-interference as sub-regional peace- keeping efforts were undertaken in the face of the actual or imminent collapse of central governmental authority. The position is now broadly established that governments involved in the massive and gross violation are not entitled to enjoy the principle of non- interference in the affairs of their countries  7. The Politics of Transitional Justice: During the course of the 1990s, as part of the Political Changes unfolding reform of political systems, various programmes were introduced to revisit the impact of the immediate authoritarian past with a view to establishing what happened, who had responsibility and what corrective measures could be taken in order to achieve national reconciliation. The first major experiment in this regard was undertaken in South Africa with its Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC); various adaptations of the TRC model and/or principle were subsequently developed by several other countries, particularly those emerging from periods of violent conflict and prolonged military rule. There was also an experiment in Rwanda with the Gatchacha or community-based system of tackling and overcoming the legacy of the genocide which the country suffered. THE CONTEXT OF POLITICAL CHANGES  A prolonged economic crisis which African governments were encouraged or outrightly pressured to redress through an equally prolonged programme of orthodox International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank structural adjustment that has already over lasted two decades and which has failed to overcome the difficulties it was introduced to help overcome at The Context the same time as it has created new complications of its own (Mkandawire & Olukoshi, 1995; Mkandawire & Soludo, 1999). of Political Change Economic crisis and decline, the state of maladjustment of African economies, the expansion of the informal sector, and the erosion of domestic policy autonomy and capacities represent a critical component of the context within which politics is being restructured in Africa.  The end of the old East-West Cold War as it was once played out, a development symbolised by the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the reunification of Germany, the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, and the dissolution of the Union of ADEBAYO OLUKOSHI 23 Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). The Context While it lasted, the Cold War had a major impact on the domestic politics of many African countries as the rival ideological blocs of Political immersed themselves in the internal political dynamics of different countries in their quest to contain each other and retain/expand their spheres of influence. Change The end of the Cold War may not have meant the end of history or ideology as was hastily suggested by some commentators; however, it altered an important geo-political factor around which a welter of strategies and interests had mushroomed in the domestic politics of African countries. Post-Cold War African politics involved a complex set of re-alignment of forces and interests in ways which affected the pre-existing patterns of politics.  The Context of Political Change Given the central role That agenda had the which the African state The politics of filling the consequence not only of assumed in every facet voids created by state delegitimizing the state of the post-colonial retrenchment, The significant as an actor in the political economy, the delegitimation and weakening of the political economy but institutional decline and decay has been at the African state by a also eroding its decay to which it was heart of some of the combination of factors, capacities through a exposed represented a changes that have not least among them series of retrenchment major development occurred over the last the distinctly anti-state measures that also which reverberated in decade and half or market reform agenda served to fuel the brain all spheres of life – the more, including the promoted by the IMF, drain, facilitate the economic, the socio- emergence of new the World Bank and erosion of the domestic cultural and the political actors/actresses of other donors. policy system, and (Mkandawire & various kinds with reduce Africa to the Olukoshi, 1995; competing/conflicting most under-governed Mkandawire & Soludo, projects region of the world. 1999). The Context Of Political Change The widespread resort to violence and arms in managing domestic political conflicts or Furthermore, in what some demonstrating disaffection. commentators presented as Connected to the end of the evidence of a new genre of wars, Lacking in ideological clarity or East-West Cold War and the the conflicts departed from the an alternative social project, retrenchment of the state in a traditional patterns in which these wars were easily dismissed manner which hobbled it, Africa professional armies were pitched by many as amounting to witnessed the against each other. Instead, banditry at the interface of greed emergence/resurgence of armed civilian groups took on and grievance; in fact, they conflicts, mostly of an intra-state others and/or heavily spoke to a much more profound type kind and with varying factionalised professional armies. of change associated with the degrees of intensity. Some of the Also, the widespread recruitment emergence into political conflicts were carried over from and deployment of child soldiers significance of a disaffected the Cold War period while others represented another unique urban youth (Abdullah & derived from grievances deriving aspect of the conflicts, as did the Bangura, 1997; Abdullah, 2003; from other sources. The most terror and mayhem which was Mkandawire, 2002; Mamdani, spectacular and tragic of the visited on unarmed civilian 2001; Sesay, 2003). conflicts had genocidal populations especially in the dimensions to them while in rural areas. many cases, there was also the collapse of central governmental authority;  The Context of Political Change The Emergence of a Diaspora of recent migrants from Africa also constitutes an important contextual factor which is growing in significance as the new Diaspora grows in influence as a constituency whose influence is refracted back into the domestic political processes unfolding in different countries. The process of the constitution of this new Diaspora is recent and still on-going as a wave of professionals, many of them still in their prime, migrate for a variety of reasons to Europe and North America at the same time as many who left temporarily to study abroad also choose to stay back. Their weight in lobbying around issues of political reform and human rights in their host countries is growing and their voice in the affairs of their home countries reverberates among some important constituencies. It is a mark of their growing influence that a formal recognition has been conferred on them by the African Union. The Context of Political change Concluding Remarks Overall, the transitional process has registered important new shifts in African politics which ought to be acknowledged for their significance in Africa’s post-independence history. Of these shifts, perhaps the most important is the embrace by most of the key players of a multi-party liberal constitutional framework for managing political competition, the expansion and pluralisation of the public space, the open discussion of strategies for governing national diversities, and the emergence into prominence of non-state actors. But these changes have also been tempered by the deepening socio-economic inequalities occurring in most countries, the continuing toll exacted by the prolonged economic crises on the continent, the narrowing of opportunities for social advancement by the deflationary macro-economic framework promoted by the international financial institutions, the stagnation of national economies, and the continuing incapacitation of the state as a public institution; With the investments which have been made by various groups in the project of democratic reform failing to yield some of the socio- economic dividends that could have been expected, it should not be surprising that across Africa, the citizenship question has emerged as perhaps the single most important issue around which the struggle for change has crystallised. Military coups in Africa are on the rise again After the Cold War, a neoliberal democratic programme was inaugurated in Africa. It promised to By 2012, there had been free the continent from over 200 coups and attempted coups authoritarianism and military seizures in Africa from their various times of of power, in favour of political independence. There was a coup pluralism and the rule of law. Thus, attempt every 55 days in the 1960s many decades later, coups were and 1970s, and over 90% of African supposed to be rare, if not a thing of states had a coup experience. the past, and dictatorships were supposed to be on the decline.  THE RECENT EVENTS IN Military coups NIGER AND GABON SHOW THAT MILITARY COUPS ARE AGAIN A COMMON TREND IN AFRICAN POLITICS. in Africa are ALTHOUGH THE ARMED FORCES NEVER CEASED PLAYING A ROLE IN POLITICS, MILITARY COUPS HAD on the rise BECOME LESS FREQUENT SINCE THE EARLY 1990S. THE NUMBER OF SUCCESSFUL COUPS HAD CONTINUOUSLY again DECLINED AFTER 1990 AND CAME TO AN ALL- TIME LOW OF SIX MILITARY COUPS IN THE PERIOD FROM 2010 TO 2019.  LESS THAN FOUR YEARS INTO THIS DECADE, AT LEAST Military coups EIGHT PUTSCHES HAVE SUCCEEDED. BURKINA FASO AND MALI BOTH SAW TWO MILITARY TAKEOVERS, GUINEA ONE IN 2021, AND NIGER AND GABON ONE EACH IN JULY AND AUGUST in Africa are 2023, RESPECTIVELY. THE DEVELOPMENTS IN SUDAN IN 2021 CONSTITUTE AN ADDITIONAL CASE. IN CHAD, THE UNCONSTITUTIONAL TAKEOVER BY MOHAMED on the rise DÉBY JR AFTER THE DEATH OF HIS FATHER IN 2021 MIGHT EVEN BRING THE COUNT TO NINE. HOWEVER, THE SUCCESSION FROM FATHER TO SON DID again CONFIRM THE MILITARY AS THE ACTUAL POWER CENTRE OF THE COUNTRY. WE DO NOT KNOW WHETHER THE TREND WILL CONTINUE. IF NO DECISIVE ACTION IS TAKEN HOWEVER, IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DO SO. Africa’s “democracy”: one step forward, two steps back MUCH OF THE ANALYSES POINT TO RECENT COUPS AS RETURNING ON THE HEELS OF AFRICAN DEMOCRACIES IN REVERSE GEAR. HOWEVER, THIS LINE OF ARGUMENT SEEMS TO ACCEPT THAT NEOLIBERAL DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA MADE A FORWARD MOVE, IN THE FIRST PLACE – A MOVE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PREVENT COUPS FROM HAPPENING AGAIN. THERE ARE ENOUGH REASONS TO SAY OTHERWISE. NOAM CHOMSKY SUGGESTS IN WHO RULES THE WORLD THAT WE LIVE IN THE SAME UGLY WORLD MERELY PUNCTUATED BY ONE HISTORICAL MOMENT AFTER ANOTHER. IMPERIAL AND CORPORATE INTERESTS LARGELY SURVIVE ACROSS THESE MOMENTS. DESPITE THE MOVE FROM COLD WAR TO POST-COLD WAR, AND RECENTLY TO POST-9/11 POLITICS, IT APPEARS NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN AFRICA’S DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL POLITICS.  CLAIMS OF DEMOCRATIC PROGRESS IN AFRICA ARE OVERRATED. DESPITE SOME EMERGENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, A MORE ACCURATE PICTURE Africa’s “democracy”: OF DEMOCRACY IN THE CONTINENT IS THAT OF ONE STEP FORWARD, FOLLOWED BY TWO BACK. IN ONE ASSESSMENT, FOR EXAMPLE, RESEARCHERS CONCLUDE THAT DEMOCRATISATION IN AFRICA BETWEEN 1990 AND 2010 SAW PROGRESS BUT ALSO one step SETBACKS. IT FOUND DEMOCRACY IN THE CONTINENT TO BE ‘INCREASINGLY ILLEGITIMATE’. WITHIN THAT PERIOD, THERE WERE REGULAR ELECTIONS BUT ALSO DEMOCRATIC ROLLBACKS; DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONALISATION BUT forward, two ALSO ENDEMIC CORRUPTION; INSTITUTIONALISATION OF POLITICAL PARTIES BUT ALSO WIDESPREAD ETHNIC VOTING AND VIOLENT POLITICS; INCREASED NUMBER OF CIVIL SOCIETIES BUT ALSO LOCAL REALITIES OF INCIVILITY steps back AND VIOLENCE; AND POLITICAL FREEDOMS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH BUT ALSO POLITICAL CONTROLS AND INEQUALITY.  WHILE COUP CAUSES ARE ALWAYS COUNTRY-SPECIFIC, THREE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN KEY DRIVERS: Coups Don’t ACUTE CRISES, POLITICIZED ARMED FORCES AND AN INCREASINGLY SELF- REINFORCING DYNAMIC. FIRST, ALL COUNTRIES WERE FACING CRISES BEFORE THE COUPS AND HAD ENTRENCHED SOCIO-ECONOMIC Come out of CHALLENGES. DISCONTENT GROWS WHEN POLITICIANS DO NOT DELIVER PUBLIC GOODS, AND THEY LACK LEGITIMACY BECAUSE OF CORRUPTION. THE RECENT POLITICAL CRISES HAVE TAKEN DIFFERENT SHAPES: POWER STRUGGLES, SUCH AS THOSE BETWEEN CIVILIAN the Blue PRESIDENTS CLINGING TO POWER DESPITE TERM LIMITS, HAVE BEEN IMPORTANT SOURCES OF CRISES IN GUINEA AND GABON. IN MALI AND BURKINA FASO, JIHADIST INSURGENCIES HAVE SPREAD IN WEST AFRICA IN RECENT YEARS AND INTENSIFIED INSTABILITY AND DISSATISFACTION. SECOND, A MILITARY COUP IS MUCH MORE LIKELY IN PLACES WHERE THE ARMED FORCES HAVE PREVIOUSLY INTERVENED IN POLITICS, WHICH IS TRUE FOR AROUND 40 Coups Don’t PER CENT OF ALL SUB-SAHARAN COUNTRIES, WITH WEST AFRICA AS ITS EPICENTRE. THE SPECIFIC INTERESTS OF THOSE WITHIN THE RANKS OF THE MILITARY ARE OFTEN THE TRIGGERS FOR COUPS. THE COUP IN MALI IN 2012 WAS MOTIVATED BY DISSATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT’S SUPPORT IN FIGHTING Come out of the AGAINST THE REBELS, WHO INFLICTED HEAVY CASUALTIES. IN THE RECENT CASE OF NIGER, COUP LEADER OMAR TCHIANI FACED THE THREAT OF BEING OUSTED AS THE LEADER OF THE PRESIDENTIAL GUARD. RUMOURS PERSIST THAT THE DEFENCE MINISTRY EMBEZZLED LARGE AMOUNTS OF THE MILITARY BUDGET. Blue THIRD, COUPS BREED COUPS. SUCCESSFUL MILITARY TAKEOVERS IN OTHER COUNTRIES MAY INSPIRE FURTHER COUPS AND CREATE A SELF-REINFORCING DYNAMIC. A FURTHER MOTIVATING FACTOR FOR TAKEOVER ATTEMPTS IS THAT WOULD- BE PLOTTERS OF COUPS MIGHT HOPE FOR RUSSIAN SUPPORT, AS WITH THE JUNTA IN MALI.  ►ABOVE ALL, WE MUST BEGIN TO TAKE SERIOUSLY AFRICAN SOCIETIES' OWN UNDERSTANDING OF THEIR OWN HISTORICAL LIFE TODAY. THE CONTINENT IS EXPERIENCING MULTIPLE AND SIMULTANEOUS Political and TRANSFORMATIONS. ►VARYING IN SCOPE, THEY AFFECT ALL LEVELS OF Social SOCIETY. IN CONCRETE TERMS, THEY ARE GIVING RISE TO A CASCADE OF RUPTURES. changes in ► AT THE TOP, THE RULING ELITES WHO HAD BEEN ABLE TO CAPITALIZE ON THE COLONIAL REVOLUTION SOUGHT TO CONSOLIDATE FAMILY FORTUNES AND the African SECURE RENTS BY PRIVATIZING THE STATE; ► FROM BELOW, THE STRUGGLE FOR ACCESS TO societies LIVELIHOODS INTENSIFIED. WITH THE ADVENT OF A MULTIPARTY SYSTEM, THE STAKES FOR THE MASSES HAVE RETURNED, WHILE NEW INEQUALITIES AND CONFLICTS, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN GENDERS AND GENERATIONS, CONTINUE TO GROW. Political and social changes in the African societies ►In particular, the arrival on the public scene of those born between 1990 and 2000, who grew up in a period of unprecedented economic crisis and insecurity, is a crucial event in this regard. It coincides with the technological awakening of the continent, the growing influence of diasporas, the accelerating processes of artistic and cultural creativity, the intensification of mobility and displacement practices, and the relentless search for alternative development models that draw on the richness of local traditions.. Because of the demographic divide, demographic, sociocultural, economic and political issues are intertwined, as evidenced by:- - the contestation of political and institutional models that emerged in the 1990s; - the changes in family authority; - women's silent rebellion and worsening generational conflicts.  From good GOOD GOVERNANCE WAS A POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC THEORY BASED ON MARKET FREEDOM. THIS FREEDOM governance HAD TO BE GUARANTEED BY THE STATE, WHICH COULD LEGITIMATELY USE STATE COERCION TO OBTAIN IT. IN AFRICA, THE to neo- NOTION OF A FREE ECONOMY DEPENDENT ON A STRONG STATE DEGENERATED VERY QUICKLY, AS IT SERVED TO JUSTIFY STATES sovereignism CAPABLE OF RESORTING TO UNDEMOCRATIC PRACTICES. From good IT WAS AROUND 2010, WITH THE DEFEAT OF SECOND- GENERATION CITIZEN MOVEMENTS, THAT A POPULIST VERSION OF NEO-SOVEREIGNISM EMERGED. IN THE CURRENT CONTEXT OF IDEOLOGICAL DISORDER, MORAL DISORIENTATION AND CRISIS OF MEANING, IT IS NOT SO MUCH A COHERENT POLITICAL VISION AS A GRAND governance FANTASY. IN THE EYES OF ITS SUPPORTERS, IT ACTS FIRST AND FOREMOST AS THE FERMENT OF AN EMOTIONAL AND IMAGINED COMMUNITY, AND THIS IS WHAT GIVES IT ALL to neo- ITS STRENGTH, BUT ALSO ITS WEIGHT OF TOXICITY. ITS MAIN BATTALIONS ARE RECRUITED AMONG THE BANGS OF CONTINENTAL YOUTH PRESENT ON SOCIAL NETWORKS, BUT RELATIVELY FEW WITHIN FORMAL INSTITUTIONS. sovereignis IT ALSO DRAWS ON THE VAST RESERVOIR OF DIASPORAS. OFTEN POORLY INTEGRATED IN THE COUNTRIES WHERE THEY WERE BORN AND RAISED, AND SOMETIMES TREATED AS SECOND-CLASS CITIZENS BY THEIR HOST COUNTRIES, MANY YOUNG PEOPLE OF m AFRICAN DESCENT ARE QUICK TO EQUATE THEIR DIFFICULTIES WITH THE GREAT POSTWAR PAN- AFRICANIST BATTLES AGAINST COLONIALISM AND RACIAL SEGREGATION. ECONOMIC CHANGES  The work of Radelet (2010) is one of the pioneer works on the topic. He African studied African countries’ emerging performance since the 1990s and identified 17 countries to be as and African Emerging: Botswana, South frontiers Africa, Lesotho, Namibia, Zambia, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, countries Rwanda, Ethiopia, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Capo Verde, Mauritius, Sao Tome and Principe and Seychelles.  ►THERE’S GOOD NEWS OUT OF AFRICA. SEVENTEEN EMERGING Emerging COUNTRIES ARE PUTTING BEHIND THEM THE CONFLICT, STAGNATION, AND DICTATORSHIPS OF THE PAST. SINCE THE MID- 1990S, THESE COUNTRIES HAVE DEFIED THE OLD NEGATIVE Africa STEREOTYPES OF POVERTY AND FAILURE BY ACHIEVING STEADY ECONOMIC GROWTH, DEEPENING DEMOCRACY, IMPROVING GOVERNANCE, AND DECREASING POVERTY. Steven ►EMERGING AFRICA: HOW 17 COUNTRIES ARE LEADING THE WAY UNEARTHS THE DEEP POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CHANGES UNDERWAY IN THESE COUNTRIES. IT TAKES A FRESH APPROACH BY NOT TREATING SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA AS A MONOLITHIC ENTITY AND Radelet RECOGNIZES INSTEAD THE DIFFERENT DYNAMICS IN COUNTRIES ACROSS THE REGION. IT EXAMINES THREE GROUPS OF COUNTRIES: THE EMERGING COUNTRIES, OIL EXPORTERS (WHERE PROGRESS HAS BEEN UNEVEN AND VOLATILE), AND OTHERS (WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE PROGRESS). ►EMERGING AFRICA EXPLORES FIVE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES UNDERWAY IN THE EMERGING COUNTRIES: (1) MORE DEMOCRATIC AND ACCOUNTABLE GOVERNMENTS; (2) MORE SENSIBLE ECONOMIC POLICIES; (3) THE END OF THE DEBT CRISIS AND CHANGING RELATIONSHIPS WITH DONORS; (4) THE SPREAD OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES; AND (5) THE EMERGENCE OF A NEW GENERATION OF POLICYMAKERS, ACTIVISTS, AND BUSINESS LEADERS.  The transformation in these countries has been little noticed by the outside world and is too often Emerging overshadowed by negative news from other African countries. But the break from the past is clear. Africa: economic Consider the economic turnaround in the 17 emerging countries: between 1975 and 1995, their economic growth per capita was essentially zero. changes But between 1996 and 2008, they achieved growth averaging 3.2 percent a year per capita, equivalent to overall GDP growth exceeding 5 percent a year. That growth has powered a full 50 percent increase in average incomes in just 13 years Emerging IT’S NOT JUST GROWTH: TRADE AND INVESTMENT HAVE DOUBLED, SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS ARE RISING, AND HEALTH INDICATORS ARE IMPROVING. THE SHARE OF Africa: PEOPLE LIVING IN POVERTY HAS DECLINED FROM 59 PERCENT TO 48 PERCENT. DEMOCRACY, WHILE STILL FLAWED, HAS BECOME THE NORM RATHER THAN THE EXCEPTION. economic GOVERNANCE HAS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY IMPROVED. TO BE SURE, THESE COUNTRIES ARE FAR FROM PERFECT. THEY FACE MANY CHALLENGES, AND THEIR CONTINUED SUCCESS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. BUT DEEP CHANGES ARE changes TAKING PLACE IN THE EMERGING COUNTRIES, AND THEIR FUTURE PROSPECTS LOOK BRIGHT Emerging Africa: Five Fundamental Changes The turnaround in emerging Africa is neither temporary nor simply the result of favorable commodity prices. The revival persisted through the global recession of the late 1990s, and these countries weathered the 2009 global economic crisis better than most developing countries. Something deeper is at work. Emerging Africa points to five fundamental changes underway in these countries. The first two ignited the turnaround in the 1990s and helped sustain it over time; the next three took hold later and are helping sustain progress.  1. More democratic and accountable governments. Emerging Africa’s troubles have been, in large part, a failure of leadership. Too many leaders have ruled by intimidation, violence, and brute force. But in the 1980s, many authoritarian Africa: Five governments lost their legitimacy and the economic and financial resources to maintain control. Protestors began to call for change, and governments lost the backing of key supporters. With the end of the Cold War and apartheid in the early 1990s, authoritarian Fundamental leaders were forced to give wayto democratic governments. The number of democracies in sub-Saharan Africa jumped from just 3 in 1989 to 23 in 2008, including most of the 17 emerging countries. Changes Democracy means not only elections but greater adherence to basic political and civil rights, more freedom of the press, and stronger political institutions. Not all of the emerging countries are democracies, but there has been a clear shift toward greater political accountability and improved governance more broadly. Democratic progress has been uneven and remains incomplete, but it has been—and will continue to be—at the core of emerging Africa’s renaissance. Emerging Africa: Five Fundamental Changes In the late 1980s, the emerging countries Twenty years ago, began to implement nearly all African much stronger economies were Economic economic policies. effectively bankrupt, mismanagement and Today, black markets with large budget the heavy hand of the are but a distant 2. More sensible deficits, double-digit state scared off memory. Budget and economic policies. inflation, growing debt investors, provoked trade deficits are burdens, thriving capital flight, and led more sustainable. The black markets, to stagnation and role of the state is shortages of basic rising poverty. smaller, the business commodities, and environment is rising poverty. friendlier, and trade and investment barriers are lower. Emerging Africa: Five Fundamental Changes 3. The end of the debt crisis and major changes in relationships with the international community. The 1980s debt crisis hit Africa particularly hard. Stagnant economies and heavy borrowing created huge debt burdens. As the crisis deepened, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) took on a much more prominent role, and IMF–World Bank “stabilization and structural adjustment” programs became central to economic policymaking and the relationship between African countries and the donor community. Some middle-income countries began to resolve their debt problems in the early 1990s, but it took another decade or more for low-income countries to get out from under their debt burdens through the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). Of the 40 countries eligible for the HIPC program, 36 have received at least the first stage of HIPC debt relief. Today, the debt crisis is finally winding down. Debt burdens are significantly lower, freeing up financial resources and relieving the time burden on senior policymakers. But perhaps even more important, relationships with donors have become much healthier. Country-led Poverty Reduction Strategies have replaced structural adjustment programs at the center of policymaking, providing a stronger basis for donor support to bolster future development going forward.  Emerging Africa: Five Fundamental Changes Cell phones are The Internet is opening becoming ubiquitous new economic across Africa, and opportunities and Internet access is creating jobs that did growing quickly. In the not exist before, such as 4. New technologies most remote corners of data entry and other that are creating new the countryside, cell services. And both are opportunities for phones are relaying widening political business and political information on prices involvement by enabling accountability. and shipments of goods the debate and flow of in real time and information that are the facilitating the transfer backbone of political of funds with simple text accountability and messages. transparency. Emerging Africa: Five fundamental Changes A new generation of savvy, sharp, and They are fed up with entrepreneurial the unaccountable leaders is emerging governments and across Africa. They are economic stagnation rising through the of the past and are ranks of government, bringing new ideas 5. A new generation starting up and new vision, often of policymakers, businesses, working as fortified by travel activists, and local representatives abroad and a business leaders. of multinational globalized outlook. corporations, leading With the new local NGOs and generation at the activist groups, and helm, Africa’s future taking an increasing looks increasingly role in political bright. leadership. Emerging Africa: The Road Ahead The five changes described above provide the foundation for continued success in the emerging countries, but the turnaround is young and remains fragile. The emerging Meeting these challenges will not be countries face several challenges, easy; it will require difficult choices, including the need to deepen effective leadership, and hard work democracy and strengthen by the citizens of the emerging governance, diversify their countries. Their future is primarily in economies to create new economic their own hands: the decisions they opportunities for a growing make, the priorities they set, and the workforce, manage the role of China institutions they establish. Their to ensure that the benefits outweigh record since the mid-1990s in these the risks, adapt to the effects of areas has been strong, and there is climate change, and build strong great promise for the future. education and health systems. Unleashing the power of girls and women will be central to maximizing the speed, equity, and sustainability of development. Emerging Africa: The Road Ahead While emerging Africa holds the keys to its future, the international community can play an important supporting role. Donors can make aid more effective by letting the emerging countries take the lead in establishing priorities and implementing programs, and they can make larger and more enduring commitments. Both donors and recipients need to hold themselves more accountable for achieving results. The rich countries can level the playing field and help spur new economic opportunities in the emerging countries by reducing barriers to trade, such as agricultural subsidies and high tariffs on finished products. And they can vocally stand with the emerging countries, highlighting their progress and giving them the credibility and respect they deserve for the progress they have made so far. Africa’s emerging countries will undoubtedly face challenges, but they have shown that nations once considered failures can turn around and climb out of poverty. The renaissance in emerging Africa provides hope for some of the most challenged countries in the world that it is possible to combat poverty, secure peace, increase prosperity, and widen the global circle of development.  EMERGING COUNTRIES/AFRICA:DEFINITION In the last couple of decades, some Africans countries have achieved a significant economic improvement even thought it is overshadowed by the severe poverty and conflicts in the continent. Indeed, some of this countries, such as south Africa, Nigeria and Egypt, are recognized as emerging economies by many international organizations. However, there are many economies in the continent which achieved an equivalent economic improvement recently. The “miraculous” growth of these countries are remarkable and their dominance on the global economy is increasing. In general terms, emerging markets or emerging economies are located in various regions and rarely known as Asian Emerging, European Emerging, Latin American Emerging and the other Frontier Markets. (Marr & Reynard, 2010) II.1 Emerging Economies: Definition? The original definition of the term was introduced in 1980s by then World bank economist Antoine Van Agtmael after observing some fast growing economies such as China and India but structurally different from developed economies (Logue 2011). So far, the terms emerging markets, emerging economies or emerging countries are not clearly defined and characterized, more by what they are not rather than what they are (Tiku, 2014). “The coming of some new countries in the new global order happened as a result of multidimensional transformations. Especially, in the last couple of decades, the world emerging countries such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have performed well to dominate the world economy. What make them common in the last decades, their economic performance improved substantially. They spent more time and effort in expansion and faced smaller economic challenges than industrialized nations. Especially, in the last 20 years their progress was mainly associated with their good policies and a lower incidence both internal and external shocks. But commonly, better policies account for more than half of their improved performance” (Abiad et al, 2015). II.1 Emerging Economies: Definition? Key aspects taken into consideration to define these countries and to stress their difference with the so called developed countries: a) Some define these countries based on quantitative factors such as GDP or GDP-per- capita, populations statistics, growth rates, etc; b) Others put forward qualitative factors such as governance and related issues; c) Others emphasize on socio-economic factors such as literacy level, health and the status of women and children in the comunity; d) In general terms, they are markets that are growing fast and may “emerge” and become richer soon (Ciravegna et al., 2013). II.1 Emerging Economies: Definition? 1 2 3 It is important to stress Emerging economies are Gross Domestic that emerging economies those countries classified Product (GDP) is an are certainly not by the World Bank as aggregate measure of developed markets like “upper middle income” production equal to the the North America, Japan and “lower middle sum of the gross values and Europe. income”, which used GDP added to all resident (Gross Domestic Product) institutional units per capita as metric. engaged in production. II.1 Emerging Economies: Definition? They are characterized by higher economic growth than developed nations but own less developed or less transparent political and financial institutions and lack of governance predictability; Most of these nations have also less adequate rule-of-law and limited property rights which taken granted in the developed world (Tiku, 2014 and Logue, 2011); Moreover, in contrast to developed countries, risk is widely perceived and priced in (Booth, 2014). II.2 What countries deserve to be considered as emerging economies ? “transformationCountries categorized as emerging are characterized by high economic and population and are achieving rapid urbanization and industrialization. The living standars of citizens in these nations are improving through time and expected to be improved in the near future. Emerging countries have already forced the G-8 group to be G-20 through economic power created in the last couple decades.” (Concalves & Xia, 2014) African emerging and frontiers countries In order to categorise African countries as emerging and non-emerging economies status, a set of criteria is used: The primary criterion is economic size. Since the emerging economies are mainly characterized by their economic or market size, their GDP size and its growth rate are taken as major criteria; Next to their economic size GDP per capita income and its growth in the last few years is considered as an important factor. Economically smaller countries such as Seychelles, Mauritius, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Botswana and Namibia have higher income than others. However, Ethiopia, Equatorial Guinea, Rwanda, Mozambique, Nigeria, Chad and Sudan increased their GDP per capita income rate higher than the rest in the last 10 years; African emerging and frontiers countries c) Emerging economies have atttracted high FDI (Foreign A foreign direct investment Direct Investment) share in the (FDI) is an investment made by a world in the last couple of decades. firm or individual in one country into Because of their continuous business interests located in another economic growth and an increasing country. Generally, FDI takes place middle class population, FDI in these when an investor establishes foreign countries have shown a significant business operations or acquires increment. Consequently, it is used foreign business assets in a foreign as important criteria to categorize a company. However, FDIs are nation into emerging. Nigeria, South distinguished from portfolio Africa and Egypt are the leading investments in which an investor countries in this regard by far merely purchases followed by Morocco, Mozambique, equities of foreign-based companies. Ghana and Congo. African emerging and frontiers countries d) Trade is also an important aspect in understanding the nature of countries’ emergence. Export product diversification index is used as a clear indicator whether a country’s fast economic growth happened because of a single product exports such as petroleum oil or some minerals. Countries with a better export diversification may be engaged in vast economic growth which is independent of a single product. In the measurement, the biggest African economies have less product diversification than Botswana, Zambia, Rwanda, Niger, Seychelles and many others. NEW SCRAMBLE FOR AFRICA New Scramble for Africa Since the start of the new millennium, sub-Saharan African economies have undergone a dramatic boom. This surge has been marked by rapidly increasing trade and investment on continent – sometimes described as the “new scramble for Africa,”, which has seen competition between the US, European nations and China. China, however, leads on many fronts, and its sharpening global competition with the U.S. is likewise playing out on the African continent.  The New Scramble for Africa ► For the US, imperial tensions have been expressed most recently in the growing trade war with China. But China’s rise as a global power has accelerated this rivalry for several years. Beyond a struggle for mere access to resources, imperialism is the competitive drive for control over resources and markets. Africa is a critical component of China’s strategic objectives for economic growth and hegemony. I.3 Weakness, Resources and Power 1 2 3 4 The structural They compete to Overall, Europe The European weakness of the appropriate Africa’s occupies a rather continenti is directly various postcolonial wealth of natural marginal position. affected by Africa’s states still affect the resources, which France was an demographic growth present period of extend far beyond exception, and still has and instability. external interference in traditional raw a permanent military Africa. The old colonial materials, such as oil presence in few powers and their and gas. countries. France is mining companies have loosing positions after been joined by the the coup in Mali, United States and Burkina Faso and China but also by India, Niger,. Brazil, Turkey, Japan, Russia. Scramble for Africa Having fluctuated for centuries between being on the geopolitical sidelines and being a priority for the major powers, subsaharian Africa commands attention not only because of its natural resources but also as a source of great instability and huge demographic flows. While Europe plays a marginal role, there is growing rivalry between the United States and China on the continent. India, Japan and Russia too have begun pursuing its interest there. Subsharian Africa has always been confined to the sidelines of world geopolitics. North Africa has always been more important, its history having been closely bound up with Europe’s.  NEW SCRAMBLE FOR AFRICA The US had declared the region “a high priority” of “growing geo-strategic importance” and renewed its African aid, trade and military policies, culminating in an unprecedented US-Africa Leaders Summit held in Washington D.C. in 2014. Britain and France also rekindled their historical ties and a range of other countries undertook a variety of new initiatives. Turkey, for example, vastly expanded its network of diplomatic and air links with the continent. Brazil courted African governments by emphasizing shared cultural and environmental features. Even Germany renewed its policy towards the region by acknowledging the many business opportunities for “tapping into the potential of African markets”. Suddenly, Africa had gained appeal.  Scramble for Africa Since the begining of the modern era, the whole continent has been the era for rivalries between Europeans powers. And in the twenty-first century, those powers have been joined by others – particularly the United States and China. With decolonization in the second half of the twentieh century, championed by the United States, colonial administrative boundaries became political borders, and the continent remained fragmented. It is a well-known fact that the territories of the states resulting from that period of history reflect no ethnic, economic, or religious criteria. This has resulted in chronically weak state institutions and great potential for conflict between different identities, tribes, ethnicities, and religions. This state of affairs produces a vicious circle, with internal state vulnerabilities causing – or at least facilitating – interstate conflicts and interference. Weakness, Resources and Power The migration flow to This context gives Europe is inexorable rise to profoundly Population growth in and bound to different Sub-Saharan Africa is continue throughout assessments of particularly stiking, the twenty-first interests between even the 250 million century, while any Europe on the one Africans of 1950 police to provide hand and the United have now increased development aid States and China on to over 1.2 billion. By and/or to counter the other: neither of 2030 they will be 2.5 migration (including the non-European billion. strict repatriation powers is much measures) will have affected by the a limited impact. demographic issue. I.4 The two superpowers on the vast continent The two main “lessons learnt” by America, which influence the country’s forms of indirect The rivalry between the United involvment, are the disastrous States and China in Africa is both 1993-1994 intervention in Somalia pragmatic and flexibile. and the chaos in Libya following the 2011 Western intervention (formally by NATO, with UN authorization). For China, following a period of major growth in economic influence, Some see this a zero-sum game, the time is approaching for some which could even lead to a direct difficult decisions to be made about conflict between the two rivals. what methods to adopt. I.4 The two superpowers on the vast continent Other believe that In the end, it is more The most important Beijing and advantageous to thing is to reduce the Washington stand to gain access while risk of conflict over both gain from avoiding excessive Africa’s resources: in cooperating, direct involvment. the twenty-first especially in We can conclude century raw guaranteeing the that there is a materials are to be stability needed by growing purchased, non their economic compatibility longer conquered, interests. It would between China’s and partly because of the also benefit Europe America’s priorities growing cost of indirectly. That would regarding the use of controlling make a positive sum- Africa’s natural territories. game. ressources. I.4 The two superpowers on the vast continent African oil is of much less strategic importance for Washington – particularly in the case of the deposits in the Gulf of Guinea, which, despite price fluctuations, were once considered crucial to reducing dependence on an unstable Middle East. China, however, will remain extremely dependent on energy imports (as will India, the other Asian giant). By 2035 China will import three fourths of its oil requirements, as reflected in a number of recent decisions. In any case, Washington and Beijing have a common interest in the stabilization of Sub-Saharan Africa: mainly for political and security reasons in America’s case, and for economic reasons in China’s case.  II. African emerging economies: the leading economies of Africa in the 21st Century In the last couple of decades, some Africans countries have achieved a significant The “miraculous” growth of these countries economic improvement even thought it is are remarkable and their dominance on the overshadowed by the severe poverty and global economy is increasing. In general conflicts in the continent. Indeed, some of terms, emerging markets or emerging this countries, such as south Africa, Nigeria economies are located in various regions and Egypt, are recognized as emerging and rarely known as Asian Emerging, economies by many international European Emerging, Latin American organizations. However, there are many Emerging and the other Frontier Markets. economies in the continent which achieved (Marr & Reynard, 2010) an equivalent economic improvement recently. III. African economic outlook 2020 III.1 Africa’s growth: Performance, Outlook and Inclusiveness There is significant regional and Africa’s economic growth has country variation in growth, with stabilized and is expected to several “success stories.” In pick up but remains below 2019, East Africa was the historical highs. Since 2014, fastest growing region, and Africa’s growth has slowed down North Africa continued to make from a decadal average of 5 the largest contribution to percent to around 3 percent. Africa’s overall GDP growth, due This moderate growth continued mainly to Egypt’s strong growth in 2019, stabilizing at 3.4 momentum. Six African percent, the same as in 2018. countries are among the world’s Growth is forecast to pick up to 10 fastest-growing economies: 3.9 percent in 2020 and 4.1 Rwanda at 8.7%, Ethiopia 7.4%, percent in 2021. Côte d’Ivoire 7.4%, Ghana 7.1%, Tanzania 6.8%, and Benin 6.7%. III.1 Africa’s growth: Performance, Outlook and Inclusiveness Growth fundamentals have improved, as its drivers gradually shift toward investments and net exports and away from private consumption. In 2019, for the first time in a decade, investment spending accounts for a larger share (more than half) of GDP growth than consumption. Net exports were also a strong contributor, particularly among commodity exporters, as oil prices recovered. As macroeconomic stability and monetary credibility have improved, inflation has also eased, but remains high. Long-term growth is driven mainly by physical capital accumulation, but human capital plays an important complementary role. Growth decomposition shows that fixed capital formation is the primary driver of rising worker productivity on the continent. Human capital development has the greatest impact when combined with high physical capital investment. III.1 Africa’s growth: Performance, Outlook and Inclusiveness ► Africa’s economic growth has not been inclusive, however, as reflected in persistently high inequality. Only about a third of African countries have achieved inclusive growth. Countries with better education outcomes and higher rates of structural change are more likely to achieve inclusive growth. Ending extreme poverty by 2030 remains a challenge in most African countries. Countries with active inequality-reducing policies have better prospects of reducing extreme poverty more by 2030. III.1 Africa’s growth: Performance, Outlook and Inclusiveness To accelerate growth in Africa and enhance its inclusiveness, policies should aim at: Deepening structural reforms to diversify the continent’s productive base and unleash growth potential; Sustaining macroeconomic stability while improving public financial management; Strengthening domestic capacity to cushion extreme weather events. Addressing obstacles to labor mobility, within and across countries and industries. Expanding social safety nets and increasing their efficiency  Growth is stable and forecast to pick up Economic growth in Africa is estimated at 3.4% for 2019, about the same as in 2018. III.1 Africa’s Although stable, this rate is below the decadal average of 5% growth for the region. The growth: slower than expected growth is partly due to the moderate expansion of the continent’s big Performance, five—Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa — which jointly grew at an Outlook and average rate of 3.1%, compared with the average of 4.0% for the rest of the continent. Inclusiveness Growth is forecast to pick up to 3.9% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2021. Africa’s estimated growth masks significant cross-regional and cross- country variation.  East Africa maintained its lead as the continent’s fastest growing region, with average growth estimated at 5.0% in 2019. III.1 Africa’s North Africa is the second fastest, at 4.1%. growth: West Africa’s growth rose to 3.7% in 2019, from Performance, 3.4% the year before. Outlook and Central Africa is estimated to have grown at 3.2% in 2019, from 2.7% the year before. Inclusiveness Southern Africa’s growth slowed from 1.2% to 0.7%, dragged down by the devastation of cyclones Idai and Kenneth.  Investments and exports are increasingly driving growth: III.1 Africa’s ▪ Growth’s fundamentals have improved, as its drivers are gradually shifting toward investments and net growth: exports, and away from private consumption. Performance, ▪ In 2019, for the first time in a decade, investment expenditure accounts for a larger share (more than half) of GDP growth dynamics than consumption. Outlook and ▪ Net exports were also a strong contributor, especially Inclusiveness among commodity exporters, as oil prices recovered. Since 2011, and particularly following the end of the commodity price supercycle in 2014, the divergence between gross savings and total investment has been widening for Africa. Nonresource-intensive countries have driven the widening gap in the continent’s average and thus the growing current account deficits. Although many countries have experienced strong growth episodes, relatively few have posted significant declines in III.1 Africa’s extreme poverty and inequality ricks to the outlook skew to growth: the downside Africa’s growth materialized despite a challenging external environment. Performance, ▪ Global trade volumes slowed from annual growth of Outlook and 5.7% in 2017 to 1.1% in 2019, with the slowdown Inclusiveness especially acute for metals and food, two of Africa’s major export commodities. ▪ Extreme weather events—particularly the type of devastating storms and floods that afflicted Southern Africa in the first half of 2019 and the expected return of El Niño conditions to East Africa—could usher in severe droughts and suppress agricultural output and growth. ▪ In countries holding elections in the next two years, there may be sociopolitical pressures to increase III.1 Africa’s public spending, which could undermine fiscal consolidation plans. And risks associated with growth: terrorism, conflict, insurgency, and social unrest may Performance, also weigh on economic activity in some countries. Outlook and Inclusiveness Macroeconomic stability Overall, macroeconomic stability in Africa improved inflation remains persistently high. However, the average inflation rate for the continent inched down by 2 percentage points, from 11.2% in 2018 to Central 9.2% in banks reacted 2019, with by adjusting notable variations interest rates to manage across countries domestic and economies. demand. In countries with downward inflationary pressures, interest rates were reduced to encourage investment and spur growth. Fiscal balances improved in the past two years, with the weighted This resulted average mostly from deficit-to-GDP a stabilization ratio in Africa in commodity declining fromprices and 5.9% in higher 2017 tax and to 4.8% in nontax 2019. revenues for large natural resource exporters. The revenue-to-GDP ratio rose by 0.3 percentage point on average for the 54 African economies, but by more than 1 percentage point among oil exporters, such as Angola, whose ratio rose 2.2 percentage points. Debt weight Debt continues to rise Public and publicly guaranteed debt levels are high and rising in most African economies, with the median ratio of government debt-to-GDP climbing over 56% in 2018, up from 38% 10 years earlier. The upward trend in external debt ratios is partly driven by the end of the commodity supercycle and the slowing growth and export revenues, especially among commodity producers. But it also stems from a more stable macroeconomic and governance environment, which allowed more African countries to tap international bond markets for the first time, some at 30-year maturities. Composition of Debt African governments have had a structural shift in the composition of debt, with less reliance on concessional lending from multilateral institutions and official Paris Club creditors, broader access to long-term finance from international capital markets, and financing Similarly, higher domestic from borrowing emergingmore (reaching bilateral creditors, than 35 percent ofsuch as China. GDP) in part reflects elevated government spending and capital investment to close the infrastructure gap. But it also reflects gradually slowing inflation, greater monetary credibility, and stronger ability to market domestic currency debt to international creditors. Only a few countries have achieved inclusive growth. Figthing Poverty Although many countries have experienced strong growth episodes, relatively few have posted significant declines in extreme poverty and inequality, which remain higher than in other world regions. ▪ On average, between 2000–05 and 2010–17, the consumption of Africa’s poor has been growing slower than for the average population. While the average per capita consumption on the continent has been growing at 3.3% a year over the two subperiods, the mean growth rate of the poor reached only 3.0%. So, although poor populations have benefited from the continent’s unprecedented economic growth between 2000 and 2016, their consumption growth has not been fast enough to escape poverty, which declined at much lower pace in Africa than elsewhere in the developing world. ▪ Growth has been inclusive—registering faster average consumption for the poor and lower inequality between different population segments —in only 18 of 48 African countries with data. ▪ Five actionable policy initiatives can help policymakers improve both the level and the quality of Africa’s growth consumption. Growth was positive between 2000 and 2017, just 12 of 37 achieved inclusive growth. Although faster growth for most countries since 2000 was associated with increases in the living standards of poor populations, it did not significantly reduce the consumption gap between rich and poor. If current trends persist, Africa will not eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The extreme poverty rate (weighted by population) will fall from 33.4% in 2018 to only 24.7% in 2030, which is far above the 3% Sustainable Development Goal target. And the number of extreme poor will fall slightly by close to 8 million people, from 429.1 million in 2018 to 421.2 million in 2030. ▪ In addition, poverty rates in all regions but North Africa are expected to remain well above that 3% target by 2030. However, improving the quantity and quality of growth could accelerate the pace. Africa’s per capita consumption would need to grow by 10.25% a year to meet the Sustainable Development Goal target. This suggests that, if historical trends persist, an average African country would have to more than double its average annual consumption growth between 2018 and 2030. Unless bold policy measures are implemented to improve both the quality and quantity of growth, Africa would meet the 3% target only by 2045. Diversification Policy recommendations deepen structural reforms to diversify. Although forecasts point to continuing recovery in 2020 and 2021, the pace of growth is weaker than previously anticipated and lower than its historical trend. Policymakers thus need to carry out deeper structural reforms that can bolster the current expansion, strengthen resilience to risks, and raise medium-term growth. Policymakers should: a) Improve productivity by alleviating constraints in the business environment. Growth in the region has been driven mainly by factor accumulation (labor, capital, land and entrepreneurship) while the contribution of total factor productivity has been limited and in some cases declined. The large and persistent gaps in output per worker between Africa and other world regions can be explained by inefficiencies in the allocation of production factors. Improving productivity to revive growth will require cultivating a dynamic and competitive private sector by alleviating the most binding constraints to business operation b) Foster structural transformation and economic diversification to speed up growth. Growth in many countries is still driven by primary commodities, which invariably makes it volatile and vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations. Policymakers should continue to strive to diversify their economic base away from primary commodities and expand their export base. Deliberate and carefully targeted policies that seek to move productive resources away from informal low-productivity sectors to formal high- productivity sectors would help increase productivity and unlock untapped growth potential. Improve competitiveness by addressing exchange rate misalignments. Policymakers should align exchange rate policies in line with their economic structure and support the drive for structural transformation. Sustain macroeconomic stability and improve public financial management. With more challenges in the external environment, policymakers need to ensure that the gains in the last two years—in macroeconomic stability, including lowering inflation rates, narrowing fiscal balances, and stabilizing exchange rate fluctuations—are sustained. Fiscal policy needs to continue to be prudent to rein in debt buildups. Monetary policy needs to continue to stimulate the economy while stemming inflation and disorderly exchange rate movements. Improve the quality of fiscal consolidation and create more fiscal space. This can be achieved through increasing revenues, which is less costly for growth than cutting expenditures. African countries still have huge potential to upgrade their tax policies and tax administration systems thereby mobilize domestic resources for development without significant distortions to economic activities. Monetary policy needs to continue to stimulate the economy while stemming inflation and disorderly exchange rate movements. IV. THE END OF “EMERGING” AFRICA? (CARBONE,  Sub-saharan economies and vulnerability to terms-of-trade shock - The end of the commodity super-cycle is being felt across the continent. The collapse in the price of iron ore is making the recovery efforts of Ebola- stricken Liberia and Sierra Leone more difficult. The economic slowdown in China, which accounts for over 40 per cent of global demand for copper, led commodity corporations to suspend mining operations in Zambia. - The enthusiasm of international investors for coal mining in Mozambique cooled off considerably, while the oil price drop is jeopardizing developments in countries such as Uganda, where petroleum was recently discovered. - Yet sub-Saharan economies are not a homogeneous lot. First, some of them are more diversified than others. South Africa, admittedly a unique case in the region, has a highly diversified economy and its outward trade includes minerals, precious metals and stones, but also motor vehicles and electronics, chemical products, agro-processed food and wine. Second, economies in the region do not all export the same primary goods. Some do not have any major extractives to exploit.  Sub-saharan economies and vulnerability to terms-of-trade shock - Ultimately, the overall effects of the end of the cycle will be broadly negative in the short and medium term, albeit they look set to be somewhat heterogeneous and probably not devastating. A second growing threat for sub-Saharan Africa, as mentioned, is the instability caused by jihadist movements. The latter find an ideal terrain in the region, where state weakness offers would-be terrorists and insurgents the opportunity to mount serious challenges against central governments.  - The limits of post-colonial state-building processes in Africa are well known. Many sub-Saharan The failure countries failed to develop well-functioning state administrations capable of establishing order within national territories and implementing public policies for of nation their people. building in - More than sixty years after their independence, African countries such as Somalia, the Central African African Republic, Chad or Congo-Kinshasa – as well as the