Understanding Trends PDF

LESSON 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CATEGORIES OF TRENDS ELEMENTS AND CHARACTERISTICS OF TRENDS Micro-TRENDS -​ Tiny shifts that occur in everything What are TRENDS? -​ characte...

LESSON 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CATEGORIES OF TRENDS ELEMENTS AND CHARACTERISTICS OF TRENDS Micro-TRENDS -​ Tiny shifts that occur in everything What are TRENDS? -​ characterized by change (McKinley Definition 2010) ​ single short-lived trend -​ Understood as a change or that develop in specific tendency in the visual expression of markets or sectors fashion caused by various trend ​ characterized by being mechanisms. renewed at a faster pace -​ A pattern of continuing change in a than macro trends, which condition output or process of gives them a more local and something that affects the people, specific scope. lifestyle, economy, sports, ​ These trends are linked to government and all other aspects of specific business and life. economic sectors and are updated more constantly than trends with a greater How do we define TRENDS? impact. It is a pattern in the data that must be indicative and significant (to be Why do we study Micro-TRENDS? considered as a trend) ​ Give us clues about our Trends MUST pass basic tests of future significance; ​ Catching the right ★​ they must create change microtrends now allows us to that affects a wide range of glimpse the shape of things people; as such, they have to come. broad social, economic, cultural, spiritual and political “The main thing is that these things implications. are trending right now, they are observable, and we can use them to predict where the world is going”. TRENDS create big and small changes in our lives and institutions… - Rhen and Lindkvist (2013) Some last for long periods while others are short-lived Macro-TRENDS -​ Major changes that affect both our daily lives and society. Definition  ​ Major influences that affect Trend Analysis our society and our daily lives ​ The extended analysis that ​ Lasts far longer than becomes possible if trendspotting Micro-TRENDS pays attention to the wider area of ​ Can start as a human behavior. Micro-TREND and grow ​ based on trendspotting observing into a Macro-TREND all sorts of different current phenomena, but it extends into developing future scenarios. “A microtrend can pop up and disappear again, but macro-trends can endure for a surprisingly long time”. ​ LESSON 2: FADS, TRENDS, AND - Rehn and Lindkvist, 2013 PRINCIPLES IN THE MODERN WORLD DETECTING A TREND Fads Once trends become mainstream, the ​ Are all about being in the moment in novelty and appeal is lost. time, particularly to enjoy that moment. (Zach, n.d) “Detecting a Trend” is also known ​ A temporary but widely copied as Cool Hunting or Trend Hunting activity, enthusiastically followed by a large number of people. ​ Defined as the search for ​ People who start, or lead fads are all what’s not popular yet about capturing attention ​ It is a hunt for those things that will become popular before they are popular and TRENDS VS FADS thus intimately connected to FADS are about ATTENTION the analysis of fads and -​ They are designed to attract the fashions attention of anyone -​ for Fads in products, the goal is Trendspotting maximum advertisement ​ Refers to the study of trends and -​ Dependent on the usage of right how they affect society words, images, and marketing ​ Is always on the lookout for less cool strategies to succeed. subjects including subtle changes ​ Product of a thorough and careful TRENDS are about INTENTION analysis of anybody who is -​ Has sense of direction, all trends sensitive to what is happening to serve a specific PURPOSE and/or society AGENDA -​ Involves investment and a sense of delayed gratification  dynamism among organizations Fundamental Elements that Drive all Trends ★​ Institutional Constraints ​ Includes laws, ★​ Basic Needs regulations, and tariffs Minimum requirements for every by international person on having a decent standard organizations, of life pressure from government and ​ Concerned with meeting non-government certain standards such as organizations adequate food, shelter, clothing and household ★​ Technological Innovation equipment. ​ This era is constantly ​ Can also include important referred to as the services such as security, “INFORMATION safe drinking-water, AGE” due to easy sanitation and education. availability of information. Abraham Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs ★​ Hyper Competition ​ A market situation in which there is a lot of ardent competition between companies ​ Markets can change very quickly, sometimes it can be hard for one company to enter a market due Progression of Needs from Minimal to to ​ another’s Complex dominance ↓ Life-Sustaining ↓ Life-Supporting ↓ Life-Enhancing ★​ Advancements in ↓ Life-Enriching Education ​ High rate of young EXTERNAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE qualified engineers ★​ Globalization and IT professionals ​ Leads to new markets in India and China and demands has made them favorite destinations  of offshore outsourcing ​ Nursing graduates from the Philippines can be seen in LESSON 3: CAUSE AND CONSEQUENCE English-speaking RELATIONSHIP countries due to their proficiency in the ➔​ Determining cause and effect is a language. strategy to find a causal relationship between or among events, conditions or behaviors. ➔​ It is an analysis tool to display possible causes of a specific condition or event, or the possible INTERNAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE effects of a specific condition or event. ★​ CULTURE ​ What is familiar, Cause and Consequence Relationship recognizable and habitual Linear Causality ​ According to Van Maneen ​ Direct link between cause and effect and Laurent (1993): It is ​ Has a clear beginning and a clear “what goes without saying end that provides members with ​ Effect can be traced back to one images of their basic cause concerns, principles, ethics and bodies of manners, —> Where Event A is clearly a rituals, ideologies, strategies cause of Event B and tactics of self-survival.” ​ Can include certain notions Domino Causality of good and bad, various ​ An extended linear pattern that forms of folklore and results in direct and indirect legends. effects —> Where Event A can cause other ★​ INNOVATION effects like Event B, Event C, etc ​ The application of new ideas and comes with unanticipated to the products, processes or effects other aspects of activities of a firm that lead to increase in ​ Can be branching where there is “value.” more than one effect of a cause ​ Can be viewed as a and that these may go on to have purposeful and focused effort multiple effects to achieve change in ​ Branching forms can be traced back economic or social contexts to “stem” causes  ​ Anticipating outcomes involves market-expansion deciding how far to trace effects opportunities ​ It also means Cyclic Causality connectedness and ​ One thing impacts another which in mobility turn impacts the first thing ​ Or alternatively impacts something 2.​ LOCALIZATION else which then impacts something ​ Reaction to Globalization else and so on, but eventually ​ Occurs because people don't impacts the first thing like globalization or ​ Involves a repeating pattern and homogenization feedback loops ○​ May be sequential 3.​ POLARIZATION (sunod-sunod) or Def: the act of dividing something, simultaneously (sabay-sabay especially something that contains at the same time) different people or opinions, into two completely opposing groups. Relational Causality ​ Two things in relation to each other ​ The future is an either/or kind cause an outcome of place, with most things polarizing in some form or Example ni sir: another. If a war occurs in a country that primarily ​ First there will be multiple supplies gas, ang pagtaas o pagbaba ng futures, some of them presyo ng gas sa buong mundo ay speeding up and others nakadepende sa supply mula sa bansang slowing down. iyon. ​ The economic middle class will eventually disappear in ​ It often involves two variables in most developed countries, comparison to each other with people either moving ​ There may be a relationship of upwards into a new global balance, equivalence, similarity or managerial elite or there may be a relationship of downwards into a new difference enslaved working (not working) class. 5 Trends that will Transform Society 4.​ ANXIETY 1.​ GLOBALIZATION ​ This insecurity is to some ​ One of the biggest extent generational, but macrotrends whether you are 18 or 80 ​ Has an impact on the there will be a growing sourcing of products and feeling of powerlessness and services and on a continual state of anxiety that will fuel everything from  an interest in nostalgia and escapism to a growth in “Online life is so delicious because it is narcissism and localization. socializing with almost no friction.” -​ David Brooks 5.​ SEARCH FOR MEANING ​ It leads to an increase in Type of Networks individual spirituality 1.​ Friends (people searching for the 2.​ Family answer to the question of 3.​ Online Social Networks (ex: online how to live their life) friends sa discord etc etc) ​ Physics will produce a theory of everything, and this will BIRDS OF THE SAME FEATHER FLOCK destroy old-fashioned TOGETHER superstitions such as ★​ It means that the company we keep religion. reflects our personality ​ In other words, science will ★​ The type of people we surround become our new religion. ourselves with speaks our values ​ The more this happens, the and what we stand for. more people will seek out of safety, comfort, and If we look at nature, networks are guidance from religion everywhere. Understanding Local Networks ​ “Radical Connectedness” is an extremely important aspect of modern-day society LESSON 4: UNDERSTANDING LOCAL —> What does this mean? NETWORKS Explanation ni sir: It is the concept we, as a generation, What is a Network? carry na “we always have to (Human aspect of network) be connected to the internet” ​ Can be understood as a group of or how we are always relying people interacting regularly like on our interconnectedness families, peers, neighbors, teachers, not just sa internet but also and managers. sa social life natin. ​ Has a certain structure, where ​ We live in what we call the members exchange and “information age” where knowledge communicate information and is available at the click of a button experiences for both social and ​ The internet as a macro-trend has professional purposes. had a profound impact on the formation of society today When we create connections meaning the social structures that we create are indeed “networked” Tiktok, Facebook, Instagram, etc -> tayo ang responsible kung paano nagw-work and nagt-thrive ang social media Kilduff and Tsai (2003) because … Networks are analyzed in terms of density, ​ Without users, social media hierarchy, multiplexity, interdependence, services would not exist. and embeddedness. ​ They are dependent on the infinite 1.​ DENSITY capability for collaboration between ➔​ Measured by the number of partners and customers connection between actors (mga tao) ​ The interconnectedness that social ◆​ The higher the number of media enables is one of the most connections, the denser the important foundations of today's network. society. ➔​ Describes the potential connections in each network that could potentially exist between two nodes Ex: A person (actor) could know WHAT ARE NETWORKS? another person; a computer could connect to another one. Brass (1999) Networks is a “set of nodes and ties” ​ Strong ties in the network facilitate Things that are connected are transmission of complex knowledge about the human community, its usually called nodes varied operations and networks. ★​ A node might be a person, computer, or even a hyperlinked text. 2.​ HIERARCHY -​ Refers to the way connections in a Connections are the links between network are structured based on influence, importance, or power. nodes -​ means some people (or groups) -​ They are relations that bind have more connections and the tie or even make the ties influence than others. Instead of suffer everyone being equally connected, some act as bridges between different groups. ​ Networks provides us the opportunity to ​ Actors in the network can interact with people outside of our leverage their connections regular social circle by establishing relations ​ Awareness concerning social networks with different groups rather is important to the extent that people than interacting with all the are uncertain who is connected to members of one group. whom. ​ The tie in a network can be weak or strong depending on  the amount of time and reciprocal services spent between actors ​ Ties in the network can be useful in facilitating change and reforms. “There will be relationships in life that are caught in conflict” “They struggle as one-party attempts to restore its balance”. 3.​ COMPLEXITY ​ It is the extent to which a link between actors serve multiple interests in the community ​ Also represents the extent to which two people are bound to each other on different social grounds. Social Ties 4.​ INTERDEPENDENCE Def: The state of being dependent upon The interdependence of social ties in a one another community produces benefits for actors and members ​ Ties in the network can be useful in facilitating change ​ Weak Ties - result of infrequent and reform and distant relationships of the ​ Facilitates cooperation and actors creates social capital necessary for the progress of the community. ​ Strong Ties - stem from frequent, long-lasting, and affect laden (heavily or abundantly loaded) relationships. Social Capital -​ The accumulated benefits as a result of the maintenance of a positive relationship between different groups and associations in the community.  —> Free Nets evolved from just providing internet access to 5.​ EMBEDDEDNESS becoming platforms that help Networks of relations within communities stay informed, which each person is rooted connected, and engaged. ​ Can include relations like family, friends and acquaintances. ​ Organization and institutions ★​ COMMUNITY WEBSITE are bound not only by formal relations of authority, but by embedded network of ​ When the WWW appeared relationships Internet to bringing easy to use have-nots, to that of graphical web pages, many providing some enhanced people saw the text-based form of community value and free nets as obsolete collaborative capacity. ​ The new model of a community network was a LESSON 5: FIVE MAIN MODELS OF community-sponsored web COMMUNITY NETWORKS archive of images, with hyperlinks to resources from ★​ Free Nets different organizations and businesses. ​ Free nets began with the mission of providing free local dialup Internet access, In summary: When websites became popular, community networks and creating a public forum changed into online directories with for online discussions, to links to local organizations, those who would otherwise businesses, and resources. go without such access. Kumbaga para silang online bulletin ​ Free nets were community boards for a town, city, or a group for networks dedicated to them to stay connected providing Internet access to citizens in a day when this access was very new and ★​ COMMUNITY LEARNING CENTER otherwise not available to most citizens. -​ also called COMMUNITY TECHNOLOGY CENTERS Free nets started as free internet services for people who didn’t have easy access. Over time, as ​ Consisted of a physical the internet became more computer lab for training common, they shifted focus to community members on the providing valuable community use of computers and the resources instead. internet  In summary, Community Public ​ Early community learning Networks were online spaces for centers had different ideas civic discussions and and opinions on what a “community curriculum” collaboration, though they would be comprised of. became less common after the web expanded. They may play a role in online democracy in the These were physical locations future. where people could learn how to use computers and the internet, though there were different ideas about what should be taught. CONTINUAL EVOLUTION ​ Keeping up with community ★​ COMMUNITY EDUCATION networking over the past ten years NETWORK has been like painting a moving ​ Schools and colleges train. created online learning platforms to teach internet ​ Technology changes steadily and computer skills, but causing definitions, perceptions there was debate about and practices of community how effective online networking to change learning was. ​ The goal of community networks stay the same however, and that is to be able to benefit people and the common good ★​ COMMUNITY PUBLIC FORUM ​ After the WWW (world wide web) appeared, this was the rarest model. LESSON 6: NETWORKS AND ​ creating a public forum for LINKAGES discussion and was based primarily on supporting civic Linkages and Networking collaboration through ​ Different in the degree of web-based text systems, or commitment by the partners a combination of both ○​ In LINKAGE, the web-based and older relationship between partner text-based systems. organizations is quite loose. ​ The future of electronic ○​ In NETWORKING, democracy is likely to focus relationships are much on the use of these public stronger, usually because discussion and the groups and agencies decision-making tools. have common objectives and beneficiaries.  Parang: Linkages → casual acquaintances Networking → close ANALYSIS VS. INTUITION friends STRATEGIC ANALYSIS NETWORKING is extending the outreach ​ From the Greek word “strategia”, of the resources in different ways to meaning skills possessed by increase the effectiveness of cooperation generals and are necessary to win battles LINKAGES intends to serve the ​ Careful study of each part of a members of both sides according to their whole and understanding how respective needs, interests, and each part and their relationships objectives with each other result in the ​ Creates bonds together to solicit world. support and assistance for purposeful activities STRATEGIC THINKING -​ It is the individual’s capacity for thinking conceptually, NETWORKS imaginatively, systematically and ​ These are structured opportunistically regarding the relationships wherein the attainment of success in the future. members of the network are able (Githens 2013) to share resources with one another. It employs mental processes that are: ​ Comprised of several institutions ​ Conceptual – abstractions (consortium) of several colleges of using analogy to translate different universities that bind across context. together for a common goal. ​ Systematic – composed of different components with interfaces that interact to NETWORKS also promote produce intended or working together to attain emergent behaviors and common objectives, undertake pattern finding. innovative practices and update ​ Imaginative – creative and members regarding visual breakthroughs in different ​ Opportunistic – searching disciplines. for and grasping new information and value ​ Networks can be considered as propositions linkages if they link one network to another creating a bigger Strategic Thinkers apply all these network. cognitive processes to achieve success INTUITIVE THINKING -​ The kind of thinking that helps you understand reality in the moment, without logic or analysis. -​ Is a form of knowledge that appears in consciousness without obvious deliberation. ​ Hunches (“kutob”) are generated by the unconscious mind and is based on past experiences and cumulative knowledge. ​ Is “quick and ready insight” according to Webster’s New Collegiate Dictionary ​ Involves far more than using common sense, can also be referred to as gut feeling, sixth sense, instinct, inner voice etc. STRATEGIC THINKING = planning carefully INTUITIVE THINKING = making decisions based on instinct or gut feeling, shaped by past experiences