Condorcet's Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind PDF

Condorcet Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind: Tenth Epoch Translated by Keith Michael Baker Translator's Note: There is still no definitive mind) or to powers arising from their exercise. or critical edition of Co...

Condorcet Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind: Tenth Epoch Translated by Keith Michael Baker Translator's Note: There is still no definitive mind) or to powers arising from their exercise. or critical edition of Condorcet's "Esquisse I have used faculties'for the former, 'capaci d'un tableau historique des progr?s de l'esprit ties'for the latter. Finally, like most eigh humain," or of the other parts of the work for teenth-century writers, Condorcet generally which it was intended as an introduction. The uses the singular and plural forms of 'homme' text published posthumously in 1795 contains to refer genetically to human beings. Where additions to the extant manuscript that were possible without contortion, I have used gen presumably made by the author before his der-free language in translating these terms. death. The standard edition of Condorcet's Please also note that the section breaks that collected works, "Oeuvres de Condorcet" appear in this translation are my own. (edited by A. Condorcet O'Connor and M. F. I wish to express thanks to Emma Roth Arago, 12 vols. [Paris:FirminDidotfr?res, schild for helpful comments on a draft of this 1847 -1849]), reprints the text of 1795 with translation. many minor changes; it also includes substan tial fragments from the larger work. I have followed the edition of the "Esquisse" by If we can predict phenomena with al O. H. Prior (Paris: Boivin, 1933; republished most complete confidence when we with an introduction by Yvon Belavel [Paris: know their laws, and if, even when we f. Vrin, 1970]), which uses the text as pub are ignorant of these laws, past experi lished by Arago and O 'Connor, placing in ence allows us to anticipate future events square brackets passages from the 1795 edition with a great degree of probability, why that do not appear in the extant manuscript. should it seem an impossible undertak Several of the choices I have made as trans ing to project the future destiny of the lator should be mentioned. In current English, human species with some plausibility the term 'perfectibility' and its close cognates from the results of its history? The only seem to carry a stronger implication of abso basis for belief in the natural sciences is lute perfection than they do in eighteenth-cen the idea that, whether we know them or tury French. In most cases, I have found terms not, the general laws governing the phe like 'ameliorability, ' 'amelioration, ' and 'bet nomena of the universe are necessary terment' closer to Condorcet's intended mean and constant. Why should this same ing. The French term facult?s also presents a principle be less true for the develop question : it can refer, as in English, to capa ment of the intellectual and moral ca bilities with which an individual is physically pacities of humankind than for other endowed (e.g., sight or operations of the natural processes? In short, since judg D dalus Summer 2004 65 Condorcet on ments grounded on past experience of and industry without entailing depend like events are the sole rule of conduct ence, humiliation, or impoverishment? progress for the wisest individuals, why shouldn't In other words, will human beings ad a philosopher be permitted to base his vance toward a situation in which all will conjectures on this same foundation, have the knowledge necessary to act ac provided he attributes to them a certain cording to their own reason in the com ty no greater than can be sustained by mon affairs of life, to remain free of prej the number, consistency, and precision udices, and to comprehend their rights of his observations ? and exercise them according to their Our hopes for the future condition of judgment and their conscience? Will the human species can be reduced to they approach that state in which all will three important points : the destruction be able to secure the means of providing of inequality among nations ; the prog for their needs, and in which stupidity ress of equality within each people ; and and misery will at last be only accidental the real betterment of humankind. Will rather than the habitual condition of all nations necessarily approach one part of society? day the state of civilization achieved by Might it also be the case that the hu those peoples who are most enlightened, man species will necessarily better itself freest, and most emancipated from prej through new discoveries in the sciences udice, such as the French and the Anglo and the arts and, as an inevitable conse Americans ? Will we necessarily see the quence, in the means of individual well gradual disappearance of that vast dis being and common prosperity; through tance now separating these peoples progress in the principles of conduct and from the servitude of nations subjected the practice of morality; or through opti to kings, the barbarism of African tribes, mization of the intellectual, moral, and the ignorance of savages ? physical capacities that may result from Are there regions of the globe where improving the instruments that intensify the inhabitants have been condemned these capacities and guide their use, or by their environment never to enjoy lib even the natural constitution of human erty, never to exercise their reason? kind? Do the differences in enlightenment, In answering these three questions, we resources, or wealth so far observed be will find that past experience, observa tween the different classes within civi tion of the progress made so far by the lized peoples - the inequality that the sciences and by civilization, and analysis initial advances of society augmented of the advance of the human mind and and may even have produced - derive the development of its capacities yield from the very nature of civilization or the strongest grounds for believing that from the current imperfections of the nature has set no limit to our hopes. social art? Must these differences con tinually diminish, giving way to the real l\ glance at the present state of the equality that is the ultimate goal of the globe reveals, in the first place, that the social art, that of reducing the very ef principles of the French Constitution are fects of natural differences in individual accepted already by every enlightened capacities while allowing for the contin person. We see these principles now too uation only of an inequality useful to the widespread and too firmly professed for common interest because it will foster the efforts of tyrants and priests to pre the progress of civilization, education, vent their gradually penetrating the huts 66 D dalus Summer 2004 of the enslaved, where they will soon re stroy the shameful exploitation Sketch athat for has Historical awaken the vestiges of good sense and corrupted and depopulated that conti Picture of the silent indignation that constant hu nent for two centuries. the Progress miliation and terror fail to stifle in the of the of Already, in Great Britain, friends Human soul of the oppressed. humanity have set an example ; Mind and if In considering different nations, we the Machiavellian government of this shall see in each one the particular ob country, forced to respect public reason, stacles opposing this revolution or the has not dared oppose it, what can we not conditions favoring it. We shall identify expect from this same spirit once a ser those nations in which it will be brought vile and corrupt constitution has been about peacefully by the perhaps belated reformed and rendered worthy of a hu wisdom of their governments, and those mane and generous nation? Will France in which it will be rendered more violent not hasten to imitate these undertakings by the resistance of governments that dictated in equal measure by philanthro will inevitably be swept up in its terrible py and European interests properly un and rapid upheavals. derstood? Spice production has been Can there be any doubt that good introduced in the French islands, in Gui sense or the absurd divisions among the ana, and in some English possessions, European nations will further the slow and one will soon see the collapse of the but inevitable effects of the progress of monopoly in this trade the Dutch have their colonies, resulting soon in the in maintained by so many betrayals, ag dependence of the New World ? Or gressions, and crimes. These European that the European population, rapidly nations will finally learn that exclusive increasing over this immense territory, trading companies are only a form of tax will civilize or cause the disappearance, imposed on them to give their govern even without conquest, of the savage ments a new instrument of tyranny. nations that still occupy vast regions of Then the European peoples, limiting it? themselves to free commerce, and too Review the history of our enterprises enlightened regarding their own rights and settlements in Africa and Asia and to disregard those of other peoples, will you will see our commercial monopo respect the independence they have lies, our betrayals, our bloodthirsty con hitherto violated so arrogantly. Their tempt for people of another color or settlements will no longer be filled with creed, the insolence of our usurpations, government favorites profiting from a and the extravagant proselytizing or the place or a privilege as they rush to accu intrigues of our priests destroying the mulate a treasure through brigandage or sentiment of respect and goodwill ini treachery in order to get back to Europe tially inspired by the superiority of our to buy titles and honors. Instead, they knowledge and the benefits of our com will be populated by industrious persons merce. traveling to these beneficent climates in But the moment is surely approaching search of the prosperity that has eluded when we shall stop appearing tothem them in their own country. Liberty will hold only as corruptors and tyrants and be these individuals there and ambi come their useful instruments ortion gener will no longer draw them home. As ous liberators. a result, these outposts for bandits will Sugar cultivation, as it is established becomein colonies of citizens spreading to the immense African continent, Africa will de and Asia the principles and prac D dalus Summer 2004 67 Condorcet on tices of European liberty, knowledge, the newly acquired good sense of the progress and reason. In place of the monks who European nations or from their obsti brought these peoples nothing but nate attachment to their commercial shameful superstition, filling them with prejudices. revulsion against the threat of a new We shall demonstrate that a new Tar domination, we shall see individuals tar invasion from Asia is the only cir disseminating among these nations the cumstance that could prevent this revo truths useful to their happiness and en lution, and that such an event is no lon lightening them as to their interests and ger possible. In the meantime, every their rights. Zeal for truth is also a pas thing is leading to the prompt collapse sion, and it will extend its efforts to dis of the great religions of the East. Aban tant regions when it no longer sees itself doned almost everywhere to the people, surrounded at shorter range by gross infected by the degradation of their min prejudices to combat and shameful er isters, and already viewed by powerful rors to dissipate. men in some countries as mere political In these vast regions there are numer inventions, these religions no longer ous peoples who seem to be waiting only threaten to keep human reason hope to receive from us the means to become lessly enslaved and in eternal infancy. civilized, only to find brothers among The advance of these peoples should Europeans and to become their friends be more rapid and assured than ours be and disciples. There are nations under cause they should receive from us what the yoke of sacred despots or benighted we have had to discover, and because conquerors who have been crying out for they should only need to be able to fol liberators for so many centuries. There low the explanations and proofs we offer are still almost savage tribes held back orally and in books to grasp the simple from the enjoyments of civilization by truths and certain methods we have at the harshness of their climate, which in tained only after long error. If the prog turn deters those who would like to ac ress accomplished by the Greeks was quaint them with these benefits. There lost to other nations, we must blame a are conquering hordes that know no law lack of communication among peoples but force, nor occupation but brigand and the tyrannical domination of the age. The progress of the latter two Romans. But once mutual needs have groups will be slower and stormier ; it is brought all humanity together; once the even possible that their numbers will most powerful nations have included diminish as they find themselves pushed among their political principles a com back by the civilized nations, and that mitment to equality among societies as they will end up gradually disappearing, among individuals, respect for the inde or being lost in the midst of these pendence of weaker states, and a hu nations. mane concern for ignorance and misery; We shall show how these develop and once maxims fostering the action ments will be an ineluctable result, not and energies of human faculties replace only of European progress but also of those tending to inhibit them, will it the liberty that the French and North then still be possible to fear that parts of American republics have both the real the globe remain inaccessible to enlight interest and the power to bring to Afri enment, or that the pride of despotism can and Asian commerce, and how they can oppose to the truth barriers that will must necessarily spring either from remain insurmountable for very long? 68 D dalus Summer 2004  The time will therefore come when the mitting more direct and disastrous vio Sketch for a Historical sun shines only on free human beings lations of human rights. Picture of who recognize no other master but their It is easy to prove that there is a natu the Progress reason ; when tyrants and slaves, priests ral tendency toward equality of wealth, of the Human and their benighted or hypocritical min and that an excessive disproportion Mind ions exist only in the history books and among fortunes cannot exist, or must the theater, and our only concern with quickly come to an end, unless civil laws them is to pity their victims and their establish artificial means of perpetuating dupes, maintain a useful vigilance moti and combining them. Inequality will di vated by horror at their excesses, and minish if liberty of commerce and in know how to recognize and stifle, by the dustry destroys the advantage that any weight of reason, the first seeds of super restrictive law or fiscal privilege confers stition and tyranny that ever dare to re on accumulated wealth ; if taxes on con appear. tracts and agreements, restrictions on their freedom, their subjection to cum in reviewing the history of societies, we bersome formalities, and, finally, the un will have occasion to show that there is certainty and obligatory cost of securing often a great gap between the rights the their execution do not impede the activi law recognizes as belonging to citizens ty of the poor and swallow up their and the rights they actually enjoy, be skimpy capital. It will diminish provided tween the equality established by politi public administration does not open to cal institutions and that existing among some citizens abundant sources of opu individuals. We shall point out that this lence that are closed to others ; provided was one of the principal causes of the prejudices and the spirit of avarice we destruction of liberty in the ancient re associate with old age do not govern publics, the upheavals that disrupted marriage arrangements. And it will di them, and the weakness that delivered minish if simplicity of manners and wise them over to foreign tyrants. institutions make wealth no longer the These disparities have three principal means of satisfying vanity or ambition - causes: inequality of wealth; inequality without, however, issuing in a misguid of condition between the individual who ed austerity that prevents its use in the has assured means of subsistence trans search for life's enjoyments and as a re missible to his family and the individual source for preserving them once they for whom these means depend on his have been obtained. lifespan or, rather, on the length of time Turn to the enlightened European na during which he is able to work ; and tions and compare the current size of finally, inequality of instruction. their populations with the extent of their It will therefore be necessary to show territories. Note the distribution of work that these three kinds of real inequality and of the means of subsistence obtain must diminish continuously - without, ing in their agriculture and industry. We however, being completely eliminated. shall see that it would be impossible to For they have natural and necessary keep subsistence at this same level - and causes which it would be absurd and hence, necessarily, impossible to main dangerous to try to destroy; and one tain the same population size - if a great could not even attempt to eliminate number of individuals ceased to rely al their effects without opening up more most entirely for their needs, and those potent sources of inequality and com of their family, on their industry and the D dalus Summer 2004 69 Condorcet on yield from any capital invested in acquir yet to the extent and in the variety of progress ing it or making it more productive. Yet forms that would make them really use preservation of either of these resources ful, not simply to a few individuals but depends on the life and even the health to the entire mass of the society they of the head of each family; it becomes would free from that periodic ruin of a an income subject to his life chances, or great number of families which is an even more contingent than that. It fol ever-recurring source of corruption and lows that there is a very real difference misery. between the class of people in this situa We shall explain that institutional ar tion and the class of those whose re rangements of this kind can be formed sources are not subject to the same risks by the social power and become one of because their needs are supplied either its greatest benefits, but can also be cre by revenue from land or by interest on ated by private associations which will capital almost independent of their in be formed safely once the principles gov dustry. erning the organization of such institu There is therefore a necessary cause tions have become more widely known of inequality, dependence, even misery, and the errors that have destroyed a which ceaselessly threatens the most great number of them are no longer to numerous and most active class in our be feared. societies. [We shall set forth other means of se We shall show that this cause can be curing equality, whether by ensuring destroyed in large part by opposing that credit ceases to be a privilege so ex chance to chance itself: by guaranteeing clusively reserved for great wealth but to someone who reaches old age assis retains a no less solid foundation, or by tance that is produced by his own sav making industrial progress and commer ings, augmented by those of individuals cial activity less dependent on the exis who contributed in the same way but tence of great capitalists. We will owe died before needing to harvest the ben these means, too, to the application of efits ; by using the same principle of mathematical methods. ] compensation to provide women and The equality of instruction one can children who lose a husband or father hope to attain, and which should be suf with a similar income acquired at the ficient, would exclude all dependence, same cost, whether it be for families af whether forced or voluntary. We shall flicted by a premature death or for those demonstrate that the present state of hu whose head survives longer; or even by man knowledge allows easy means of building up for children who attain the arriving at this goal, even for those indi age to work for themselves, and to start viduals able to study only for a small a new family, the benefit of a capital number of their early years, and for a necessary to the development of their few leisure hours during the rest of their industry, a sum that will have increased life. We shall show that a good choice of at the expense of those prevented by pre the knowledge to be taught, and of the mature death from reaching this point. methods for teaching it, will make possi We owe the idea of these methods to the ble the instruction of an entire people in application of mathematical calculation everything one needs to know to manage to the probabilities of life and to finan a household, administer one's affairs, cial investment, and they have already and freely develop one's industry and been employed successfully, though not one's capacities; to know, defend, and 70 D dalus Summer 2004 exercise one's rights; to learn one's du share it, existing for them and not Sketch for a Historical ties, in order to fulfill them well; to against them. The natural difference Picture of judge one's actions and those of others in capacities among individuals whose the Progress according to one's own lights and be de understanding has not been developed of the Human nied none of the higher and more re produces charlatans and dupes, the Mind fined sentiments that honor human na clever and the gullible, even among the ture ; to avoid blind dependence on those savages. This same difference doubtless to whom one is obliged to entrust one's exists in societies where instruction has affairs or the exercise of one's rights, become truly general, but in this case it and to have the capacity to choose them entails no more than the differentiation and supervise them ; to be no longer the between enlightened individuals and dupe of those popular errors that tor those right-minded ones who recognize ment one's life with superstitious fears the value of knowledge without being and chimerical hopes ; to defend oneself dazzled by it, between talent or genius from prejudices by the force of reason and the good sense that knows how to alone; and finally, to escape the seduc appreciate and benefit from them. And tions of charlatanism that would en even if this difference were to become snare one's wealth, health, and freedom greater in terms of the relative strength of opinion and conscience, under the and extent of individual capacities, it pretext of promising enrichment, heal would not have a more marked effect on ing, or salvation. the relations among individuals and on From that point on, the inhabitants of factors affecting their independence and a single country will no longer be differ their happiness. entiated by their use of cruder or more These various causes of equality do refined language. They will be able to not operate in isolation. They combine, govern themselves according to their interact, and reinforce one another, own lights. They will no longer be limit jointly producing a stronger, surer, and ed to unthinking acquaintance with the more constant action. More equal in procedures of an art or the routine of a struction fosters greater equality in in profession. They will no longer depend, dustry and hence in wealth ; economic for the simplest matters or the most ele equality necessarily promotes equality mentary instruction, on skillful men of instruction ; and there is a mutual re who dominate them by virtue of their lationship between equality among peo necessary superiority. Real equality must ples and that among individuals. be the result, since differences in knowl In short, well-organized instruction edge and talents will no longer raise a corrects the natural inequality in human barrier between individuals whose senti capacities rather than strengthening it, ments, ideas, and language will permit just as good laws remedy natural in them to understand one another, who equality in the means of subsistence, may wish to be instructed by others but and just as liberty will be more extensive will not need to be directed by them, and and more entire in societies where insti who will be able to entrust responsibility tutions have led to such equality than it for government to the more enlightened was in the state of independence enjoyed among them without being forced to by the savages, even though it will be abandon it to them in blind confidence. subject to a regular constitution. The In this way, superiority becomes ad social art will thus have fulfilled its pur vantageous even to those who do not pose, that of assuring and extending for D dalus Summer 2004 71 Condorcet ments and methods used to observe and on all the enjoyment of the common rights to which nature calls them. measure them acquire a new precision. progress The real advantages to result from the As more relations become known among progress we may hope for with virtual a greater number of objects, it becomes certainty, as we have now seen, can have possible to subsume them under more no other limit than the very perfecting of general relationships and express them the human species. This must be so be in simpler terms, presenting them in cause, as the various causes of equality ways that make it possible to grasp a extend their effect to vaster means of greater number with the same brain providing for our needs, to a broader power and no greater force of attention. range of instruction, and to a more com As the mind reaches more complicated plete liberty, the resulting equality will combinations, simpler formulae make be more substantial and closer to em them easier to grasp. In consequence, bracing everything truly affecting hu truths first discovered by the greatest man happiness. effort, and initially understood only by individuals capable of profound reflec JLt follows that we can only know the ex tion, are soon developed and proved by tent or limit of our hopes in examining methods that are no longer beyond per the advance and laws of this ameliora sons of average intelligence. If the meth tion. ods that lead to new combinations are No one has ever thought that the mind exhausted, or if their application to could exhaust all the facts of nature or questions still unresolved demands ef reach the ultimate means of precision in fort exceeding the time or powers of re measuring and analyzing these facts, the searchers, soon more general methods relationships of objects one to another, and more simple means appear to open and all the possible combinations of a new field to genius. The power and ideas. The relations of magnitude alone range of human minds will have re - quantity and extension, the permuta mained the same, but the instruments tions of this single idea - form a system they can employ will have been multi that is already too immense for the hu plied and improved, and the language man mind ever to be able to grasp in its that fixes and determines their ideas will entirety, or for the part of this system have been able to acquire more precision our intelligence will have penetrated and generality. And in contrast to me ever to be greater than that remaining chanics, where force may be increased unknown to it. The conclusion has only by diminishing velocity, the meth therefore been drawn that, since human ods directing genius in the discovery of new truths will have added both to its kind will only ever be able to know a fraction of the objects its intelligence is force and to the rapidity of its opera capable of grasping, it is bound to reach tions. a point at which the number and compli Since these changes are the necessary cation of the facts already known will consequence of progress in the knowl have absorbed all its forces and any fur edge of detailed truths, and since the ther progress will become really impos need for new resources simultaneously sible. produces the means of obtaining them, it follows that the real accumulation of But as facts multiply, the human mind learns to classify them and reduce them truths forming the system of the empiri to more general facts, and the instru cal, experimental, and mathematical sei 72 D dalus Summer 2004 enees can grow constantly, and all the how much mineralogy, botany, zoology, Sketch for a Historical parts of this same system will be en and meteorology would benefit as a re Picture of hanced even assuming only the same sult ; and what a great disparity there is the Progress strength, activity, and extent of human in these sciences between the weakness of the faculties. of the methods that have nevertheless Human Mind In applying these general considera led us to so many useful and important tions to the different sciences, we shall truths, and the power of those that could find examples of successive advances in then be employed. each that leave no doubt regarding the We shall explain how the advantage certainty of those we must expect. In the of being cultivated by a large number case of those sciences regarded by preju of individuals extends even to those sci dice as closest to being exhausted, we ences in which discoveries are achieved shall make a particular point of identify by meditation alone, since progress in ing the advances that promise to be most these sciences can be made through probable and most imminent. We shall those improvements in detail that do elucidate everything that a more general not require an inventor's brainpower and philosophical application of the and become evident upon simple reflec mathematical sciences to all human tion. knowledge will necessarily add to the Turning to the useful arts, we shall see extent, precision, and unity of the entire that their progress is bound to follow system of this knowledge. We shall ex that of the sciences upon which they plain how more universal instruction in depend for their theory, and to have no each country must expand our hopes by other limits ; that their techniques are giving a greater number of individuals susceptible of the same improvements the elementary knowledge that can in and simplifications as scientific meth spire their taste for a particular subject ods ; that instruments, machines, and of study and foster their ability to make specializations steadily increase human progress in it. In the most enlightened strength and skill, augmenting both the countries, scarcely a fiftieth of those to perfection and precision of products whom nature has given talents receive while diminishing the time and labor the instruction necessary to develop needed to achieve them. The obstacles them. We shall show that our hopes of still opposing the progress of these arts progress will increase even further as will disappear, along with the accidents more widespread prosperity allows one will learn to anticipate and prevent, more individuals to devote themselves and the dangers to health arising from to these occupations, and as the number the work itself, from habitual practices, of individuals destined to push back the or from climate. limits of the sciences by their discoveries Then an ever-smaller tract of land will necessarily grows in the same propor yield a quantity of more useful and valu tion. able commodities; greater enjoyments It will be seen how much this equality will be obtained with less consumption of instruction, and the equality that of resources; the same industrial prod must be established among the various ucts will require less destruction of raw nations, would accelerate the progress materials, or become more durable. It of those sciences in which advances de will be possible to select, for each kind pend on observations repeated in greater of soil, the crop satisfying the greatest number and extended over a larger area; needs, and to choose, among crops serv D dalus Summer 2004 73 Condor cet on ing similar needs, those satisfying a man species would necessarily have ac progress greater number of people with less work quired knowledge we can scarcely imag and less real consumption. Thus, with ine. And who would dare guess what the out any sacrifice, the means of conserva art of converting the elements into sub tion and of economy in consumption stances fit for our use must one day will follow the progress of the art of re bring? producing various substances, process But supposing this limit must one day ing them, and producing goods from be reached, there is nothing we need fear them. as a result, either for the happiness of the Not only will the same plot of land human species, or for its indefinite im thus be able to feed more individuals, provement. If we assume that up to this but they will each be engaged in less ar point the progress of reason will have duous but more productive occupations, matched that of the sciences and the and better able to satisfy their needs. arts, that the ridiculous prejudices of As the progress of industry and wel superstition will have ceased to infuse fare leads to a more advantageous ratio morality with a severity that corrupts between human capacities and needs, and degrades it rather than purifying and each generation will be brought to great elevating it, then humanity will know er enjoyments, as a result either of this that the obligations it has toward those progress or of the conservation of goods not yet born consist in giving them not produced earlier. Given the constitution life but happiness. These obligations of the human species, however, it fol pertain to the general welfare of the hu lows that there will be an increase in the man species, of the society in which one number of individuals. Will there not lives, of the family to which one is at inevitably come a point, therefore, at tached, not to the childish idea of filling which these two equally necessary laws the earth with useless and miserable will clash and the growth in the number beings. Thus there could be a limit to of people will exceed the increase in the possible quantity of foodstuffs, and their resources? Is this not bound to lead hence to the maximum population, to a kind of oscillation between good without this resulting in a premature de and evil, if not to the constant diminu struction of some of those beings al tion of well-being and population that ready living, which would be contrary would constitute a real retrogression? to nature and to social prosperity. Will this oscillation not become an en during cause of periodic misery in soci -L>Jiscovery of the first principles of eties that have reached this point? Will metaphysics, ethics, and politics, or it not indicate the end point beyond rather their exact analysis, is still recent. which further improvement would be Because knowledge of these principles come impossible, the limit to its better was preceded by a great number of par ment the human species would finally ticular truths, the prejudice that it has reach after an immensity of centuries reached its ultimate limit easily took and never be able to go beyond? root. Because there were no more gross There is no one, surely, who fails to see errors to destroy or fundamental truths how distant this time is from us, but are to establish, it was assumed that there we not bound to reach it one day? It is was nothing left to do. equally impossible to pronounce for or But it is easy to see how imperfect the against the future reality of an event that analysis of the intellectual and moral would occur only in an age when the hu faculties of humankind remains. Since 74 D dalus Summer 2004 knowledge of one's individual duties de stantial progress because it offers the Sketch for a Historical pends on understanding the effects of sole means of giving their results an al Picture of one's actions on the well-being of one's most mathematical precision and of the Progress fellows and on the society to which one evaluating their degree of certainty or of the Human belongs, it can therefore still be extend likelihood. In the absence of calculation, Mind ed by more consistent, more probing, admittedly, the facts upon which these and more precise observation of these results rest may sometimes lead us to effects. Many questions remain to be general truths on the basis of observa answered, many social relations to be tion alone, and they may on occasion examined, before we will know precisely teach us whether the effect produced by the extent of the individual's rights, and a given cause has been positive or not. of the rights the social state gives to all But unless it has been possible to count in relation to each. Have we yet estab or weigh the facts, or to subject the ef lished with any precision the limits on fects to precise measurement, one will rights, either those of different societies not be able to gauge the extent of the in wartime, those of societies over their good or evil arising from this cause. The members in times of division and disor good and evil might almost balance out, der, or those of individuals or sponta or the difference between them might neous associations at the point of their not be very great, in which case one free and original formation or when would be unable even to determine with their dissolution becomes necessary? any certainty which way the scale might Turning to the theory that must direct tip. Without the application of mathe the application of these principles and matical calculation, it would often be serve as the basis for the social art, is it impossible to choose with any confi not still clearly necessary to reach a pre dence between two arrangements for cision to which these first truths cannot attaining the same goal, because their be susceptible when stated in absolutely relative advantages might not be obvi general form? Have we reached the ously disproportionate. Lacking such a point at which we can base all the provi resource, these sciences would remain sions of our laws on justice or a proven crude and limited for want of methods and recognized utility, and not on vague, sophisticated enough to grasp the elu uncertain, and arbitrary opinions or sive truth, or of techniques reliable alleged political advantages ? Have we enough to mine the depths at which determined the precise rules for choos part of their wealth lies hidden. ing with assurance, among the almost These applications of mathematics infinite number of possible arrange remain still elementary, one might say, ments under which the general princi despite the happy efforts of some mathe ples of equality and natural rights would maticians. They will open up to succeed be respected, those which would more ing generations a source of knowledge as fully guarantee the preservation of these inexhaustible as the science of calcula rights, allow great leeway for their exer tion itself, as vast as the number of com cise and enjoyment, and ensure most binations, relationships, and facts that effectively the peace and well-being of can be made subject to it. individuals and the strength, tranquility, There is another advance to be made and prosperity of nations ? in these sciences that is no less impor The application of combinatorial the tant : perfecting their language, which is ory and the calculus of probabilities to still so vague and obscure. This can give these sciences promises even more sub them the advantage of becoming truly D dalus Summer 2004 75 Condor cet on popular, even in their elementary form. sary result of a well-conceived study of progress Genius can overcome the imprecision of morality, a greater equality in the condi scientific languages along with other tions of the social pact? The sense of obstacles ; it recognizes the truth despite one's dignity that belongs to the free the strange mask that conceals or dis person, an upbringing based on a devel guises it. But will the individual who can oped knowledge of the constitution of only devote a few moments to his in our moral being : must these not render struction be able to acquire and retain common among almost all of us those the simplest notions if they are disfig principles of a strict and pure justice, ured by an imprecise language? The those habitual movements of an active less able he is to assemble and combine and enlightened benevolence, of a deli ideas, the more he needs them to be ex cate and generous sensibility? Their act and precise ; his own intelligence seeds have been placed by nature in all cannot supply him with a system of our hearts, and they await only the sweet truths that will protect him against er influence of enlightenment and liberty ror ; and his mind, lacking the strength to develop within us. Just as the mathe and refinement that comes from long matical and physical sciences serve to exercise, is unable to seize the feeble rays improve the arts employed to provide that slip through the obscurities and am for our simplest needs, is it not equally biguities of an imperfect and perverted within the necessary order of nature that language. the progress of the moral and political sciences exercise a similar effect on the iluman beings cannot enlighten them motives that direct our sentiments and selves regarding the nature and develop our actions? ment of their moral sentiments, the Is it not the case that improvement in principles of ethics and the natural moti the laws and public institutions resulting vations that bring their actions into ac from the progress of the moral and polit cordance with them, their interests as ical sciences will have the effect of har individuals or as members of a society, monizing and identifying the common without also making progress in the interest of each individual with the com practice of morality as real as that in the mon interest of all? Is it not the goal of science itself. Is not interest badly un the social art to destroy this apparent derstood the most frequent cause of opposition? Will not the society whose actions contrary to the common good? constitution and laws conform most Is the violence of the passions not fre exactly to the voice of reason and nature quently the effect of habits embraced be the place where virtue will be easiest, only as the result of miscalculation, or the temptations to stray from it weakest of ignorance of the means of resisting and most rare? their first impulses, calming them, What vicious habit is there, what prac and redirecting and controlling their tice contrary to good faith, what crime action? even, that cannot be shown to derive its Consider the habit of reflecting upon origin and first cause from the legisla one's own conduct and listening to one's tion, institutions, and prejudices accord reason and one's conscience as one does ing to which it is observed? so, the experience of those gentle senti In short, will the well-being that fol ments that blend our happiness with lows from the advances of the useful arts that of others : are these not the neces when they are based on sound theory, or 76 D dalus Summer 2004 from the progress of a just legislation as humans, or the interests of society? Sketch for a Historical based on the truths of the moral and Would it not realize what has so far been Picture of political sciences, not dispose individu only a fantasy: national manners that the Progress als toward a sense of humanity, benevo are sweet and pure, formed not by priva of the Human lence, and justice? tions arising from pride, by hypocritical Mind These observations will be developed appearances, by restrictions imposed by more fully in the work to follow. Do they the fear of shame or religious terrors, not prove that moral goodness - the nec but by habits that are freely acquired, essary result of the human constitution inspired by nature, and declared by - is susceptible like all the faculties to in reason? definite improvement, and that nature The most enlightened peoples, re has linked truth, happiness, and virtue claiming the right to expend their blood together by an indissoluble chain? and their wealth, will gradually learn to The advances of the human mind see war as the deadliest scourge and the most important for the general happi greatest of crimes. The first conflicts to ness must include the complete elimina disappear will be those into which peo tion of the prejudices that have estab ples are dragged by the usurpers of na lished an inequality of rights between tional sovereignty in support of alleged the two sexes that is fatal even to the one hereditary rights. it is presumed to favor. We would look in Peoples will know that they cannot vain for grounds to justify this inequality become conquerors without losing their in terms of differences in the physical own liberty; that permanent confedera organization of the sexes, or of a puta tions are the sole means of maintaining tive disparity in powers of intelligence their independence ; that they must seek or in moral sensibility. Its only origin is security, not power. Commercial preju abuse of force ; subsequent attempts to dices will gradually dissipate ; false mer excuse it have been empty sophistries. cantile interests will lose their dreadful We shall show how much the destruc power to cover the earth with blood, ru tion of the practices authorized by this ining nations under the pretext of en prejudice, and of the laws it has dictated, riching them. As peoples finally come to can contribute to the enhancement of closer agreement on the principles of family happiness, and to making com politics and ethics, as each finds that its mon and habitual the domestic virtues own advantage consists in offering for that are the first foundation of all the eigners a more equal share of the goods others; how much this change can foster it owes to nature and its industry, all the the progress of instruction, and especial causes producing, envenoming, and per ly render it truly general, either because petuating national hatreds will gradually it will be extended to the two sexes more vanish, no longer to serve as fuel or pre equally, or by virtue of the fact that it text for the fury of war. cannot become general, even for men, Institutions better devised than the without the support of mothers of fami projects for perpetual peace that have lies. Would this belated tribute to equity occupied the leisure and consoled the and good sense not stifle a fertile source spirit of some philosophers will acceler of injustices, cruelties, and crimes by ate the progress of this brotherhood eliminating so dangerous an opposition among nations. Wars between peoples, between the liveliest and most irrepress like assassinations, will be numbered ible natural inclination and our duties among those monstrous atrocities that D dalus Summer 2004 77 Condorcet considered in themselves must never on humiliate and revolt nature, and bring enduring disgrace to the country and the theless be as intense even when the artist progress century whose annals they have stained. can claim less merit to bringing them to perfection. As artistic works truly wor V Ve have already observed, when we thy of preservation multiply and become discussed the fine arts in Greece, Italy, more perfect, each generation will exer and France, that it is necessary to distin cise its curiosity and capacity for admi guish what in an artistic work really be ration on those deserving preference ; longs to the progress of the art and what others will gradually be forgotten ; and is owing to the talent of the particular the enjoyment to be derived from the artist. We shall point out here the prog simplest and most striking manifesta ress still to be expected in the arts, tions of beauty, those that were caught whether as a result of progress in philos the first, will not exist less for the new ophy and the sciences, of more numer generations who must find them among ous and thorough observations of the more modern creations. object, effects, and techniques of the arts, or of the destruction of the preju JLhe progress of the sciences guarantees dices that have restricted their sphere that of the art of instruction, which in and kept them still under the yoke of turn accelerates scientific advance. The authority, which the sciences and philos constant action of this reciprocal influ ophy have already cast off. We shall con ence must be counted among the most sider whether the arts must reach the dynamic and powerful causes of the point of exhaustion, as some have be amelioration of the human species. A lieved, once the most sublime and mov young man leaving school today knows ing beauty has been caught, the most fe more mathematics than Newton ac licitous subjects have been treated, the quired by profound study or discovered simplest and most striking arrangements through his genius ; he is able to utilize employed, the most vivid and most gen the instrument of the calculus with a erous characters portrayed, the strongest facility then unknown. The same obser passions and their truest and most natu vation is applicable to all the sciences, ral expressions represented, along with though in unequal measure. As each de the most imposing truths and the most velops, so do the means of expressing brilliant images. Are the arts con more concisely the proofs of a greater demned, in short, whatever fertility one number of its truths, and of making attributes to their techniques, to the them easier to understand. In conse eternal monotony of imitating the first quence, new advances in the sciences models? notwithstanding, not only do individu We shall make clear that this view is als of equal genius still reach the level of no more than a prejudice born of the the current state of knowledge at a simi tendency of writers and artists to judge lar age, but what each generation can individuals instead of appreciating learn in the same length of time, with works. If there must be a loss of the re the same brainpower and the same at flective pleasure produced by comparing tention, necessarily increases. Similarly, works of art from different centuries or the elementary part of each science, that different countries, or by admiring the which all can master, becomes more and efforts or the successes of genius, the en more extensive, thus comprising more joyment to be derived from these works fully the knowledge each individual 78 D dalus Summer 2004 must have to conduct his everyday life, from them. We shall explain how, with Sketch for a Historical or exercise his reason with complete the aid of a small number of these tables, Picture of independence. whose use will be easily learned, individ the Progress In the political sciences there is an or uals who have not been able to go far of the Human der of truths that can only be useful, es enough beyond the most elementary in Mind pecially among free peoples (which, struction to master detailed knowledge within a few generations, will mean all useful in common life will find it possi peoples), when they are generally known ble to locate this knowledge at will and acknowledged. The influence of the whenever the need arises. We shall also progress of these sciences on the liberty show how use of these same methods and prosperity of nations must therefore can facilitate elementary instruction in be measured, to some degree, by the any field where it is based on a systemat number of these truths that become ic order of truths or on a sequence of ob common to all minds as a result of ele servations or facts. mentary instruction. Thus the constant A universal language is one that uses expansion of elementary instruction in signs to represent either real objects, or these sciences, linked as it is to their nec those well-defined aggregates of simple essary progress, offers us an improve and general ideas that are found to be ment in the destinies of the human spe the same (or can take form equally) in cies that can be regarded as indefinite, the understanding of all individuals, or since its only limits are those of this the general relations between these same progress. ideas, the operations of the human We still have to discuss two general mind, the procedures particular to each means that must influence the improve science, or the techniques of the arts. ment of the art of instruction as well as People who knew these signs, the meth the advance of the sciences. One is the ods of combining them, and the princi more extensive and less imperfect use of ples underlying them would understand what might be called technical methods ; what is written in this language and be the other, the establishment of a univer able to express it with equal facility in sal language. the language of their own country. By technical methods, I understand Clearly, this language could be used to the art of bringing together a large quan set out the theory of a science or the tity of data in a systematic arrangement rules of an art, to report an experiment making it possible to see their relation or new observation, the invention of a ships immediately, grasp combinations procedure, or the discovery of a truth among them rapidly, and form new per or method. As in algebra, signs already mutations easily. known would supply the means of ex We shall set forth the principles and plaining the precise meaning of new show the utility of this art still in its in ones when they are needed. fancy. As it is developed, it will offer the A language of this kind would not advantage of bringing together within a share the disadvantages of a scientific small table what would often be difficult idiom different from common usage. to show as readily, or as well, in a very We have already observed that use of lengthy book. Alternatively, it will pro such an idiom would necessarily have vide the even more precious means of the effect of dividing society into two presenting isolated facts in the order unequal classes of people : those who most suitable to derive general results know the scientific language and thus D dalus Summer 2004 79 Condorcet on possess the key to all the sciences, and We have outlined the proofs of this those who have been unable to learn it here, and they will be developed more progress and consequently find themselves utter fully and forcefully in the work to come. ly unable to acquire knowledge. The uni We could therefore already conclude versal language, in contrast, would be that humankind is indefinitely amelio learned with a science itself, as in alge rable. But so far we have assumed that it bra ; the sign would be understood at the will have the same faculties and the same same time as the object, the idea, or the physical constitution. What then would procedure it represents. An individual be the extent and certainty of our hopes who had acquired the elements of a sci if we could believe that these natural ence and wanted to study it further faculties and this physical constitution would find in books not only truths he themselves could also be improved? could understand with the help of the This is the last question remaining for signs whose precise meaning he already us to consider. knew, but also the explanation of new Organic amelioration or deterioration signs necessary to reach other truths. of vegetable and animal species may be We shall demonstrate that there is regarded as one of the general laws of nothing chimerical about the idea of nature. This law extends to the human forming such a language, provided it is species and surely no one will doubt that limited to the expression of simple and progress in medical care, healthier nutri precise propositions of the kind that tion and accommodation, a mode of life form the system of a science or the prac developing strength through exercise tice of an art. Its creation would already without destroying it through excess, be easy for a large number of objects, and, finally, destruction of the two most and the strongest obstacle against ex potent causes of degradation - misery tending it to others would be the some and excessive wealth - will inevitably what humiliating necessity of accepting extend the average lifespan and assure how few precise ideas and well-defined human beings more consistent health notions we have yet to agree on. and a more robust constitution. It seems We shall show how this language, con clear that advances in preventive medi stantly improving and daily extending cine, rendered more efficacious by the its range, would bring to bear on all the progress of reason and of the social or objects embraced by human intelligence der, will in the long run extinguish trans a rigor and precision that would make missible and contagious illnesses, as knowledge of the truth easy and error well as the common illnesses caused by almost impossible. Then each science climate, foodstuffs, and working condi would advance as surely as mathematics, tions. Nor will it be difficult to prove and the propositions forming its system that this same expectation must apply to would acquire all the geometric certain almost all other illnesses, whose distant ty permitted by the nature of its subject causes will one day probably be discov and method. ered. Would it be absurd at this point to imagine that this amelioration of the hu j?\l\ these causes of the amelioration of man species must be regarded as suscep the human species, all these means as tible of indefinite progress, that a time suring it, must by their very nature exer will come when death will be only a re cise a continuous action and constantly sult of unusual accidents or the slower extend their range. and slower deterioration of vital forces, 8o D dalus Summer 2004 and even that the average interval be whether the laws of nature have fixed Sketch for a Historical tween birth and this deterioration will such a point. Picture of have no assignable limit? Human beings As for physical faculties, the force, the Progress will certainly not become immortal, but adaptability, and delicacy of the senses, of the can there not be an indefinite increase in Human are these not among the qualities whose Mind the interval between the beginning of improvement in the individual can be life and the average point at which exis transmitted? Observation of the differ tence becomes difficult for them natu ent species of domestic animals leads us rally, without illness or accident? Since to believe so, and we will be able to we are speaking here of a progress that confirm this by direct study of human can be represented with precision nu beings. merically or diagrammatically, this is the Finally, can these same hopes be ex appropriate point at which to explicate tended to intellectual and moral facul the two possible meanings of the term ties ? Our parents pass on to us the ad indefinite. vantages and defects of their physical It might be that this average lifespan, constitution, from which we derive dis constantly increasing the further we tinctive bodily characteristics and dispo advance in time, expands by virtue of a sitions to particular physical states. Can law according to which it continually they not also pass on to us that part of approaches a point of unlimited dura physical organization governing intelli tion without ever reaching it. Or it gence, strength of mind, emotional might be that it expands by virtue of a energy, and moral sensibility? Is it not law according to which, over the im plausible that in improving these quali mensity of centuries, it reaches a dura ties education could affect this same tion greater than any determinate limit physical organization, modifying and we might have assigned to it. In this lat improving it? Analogy, analysis of the ter case, the increase is truly indefinite in development of human faculties, and the most absolute sense, because there even some observed facts seem to prove exists no endpoint before which it must the reality of these conjectures, which stop. In the former case, the increase is would extend even further the limits of also indefinite in relationship to us if we our hopes. cannot fix the point it must always ap proach and can never reach, and espe JLhese are the questions to be exam cially if, knowing only that it can never ined in concluding the discussion of this stop, we do not even know which of the Tenth Epoch. And how welcome to the two senses of the term 'indefinite' philosopher is this picture of the human should be applied to it. This is precisely race freed from all its chains, released the limit of our present knowledge as from the domination of chance and of to the potential ameliorability of the the enemies of its progress, advancing human species, and hence the sense in with a firm and sure step in the path of which we can call it indefinite. truth, virtue, and happiness ! How this Thus, in the example considered here, spectacle consoles him for the errors, we have to believe that the average hu crimes, and injustices that still defile the man lifespan must increase constantly earth, of which he is often the victim ! In unless this is prevented by physical revo contemplation of this picture, he finds lutions, but we do not know the limit the reward for his efforts on behalf of beyond which it cannot extend, or even the progress of reason and the defense D dalus Summer 2004 8l Condor cet on of liberty. He dares thus to link these ef forts to the eternal chain of human des progress tinies, finding there the true reward of virtue, the pleasure of having done some lasting good which fate will no longer destroy, bringing back prejudices and slavery in a deadly swing of the pendu lum. This contemplation affords him an asylum where the memory of his perse cutors cannot pursue him, where he forgets humanity tormented and cor rupted by greed, fear, or envy, to live in the mind with humanity restored to the rights and dignity of its nature. There he truly lives in communion with his fellows, in a paradise that his reason has been able to create and his love of humankind enhances with the purest of pleasures. 82 D dalus Summer 2004