Wind Power Density Monte Carlo Simulation Quiz

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Questions and Answers

What type of forecasts are required for risk management in wind energy?

  • Ensemble forecasts
  • Density forecasts (correct)
  • Point forecasts
  • Log likelihood forecasts

How is wind power variability affected by the spatial locations of wind farms?

  • It is not affected by spatial diversification
  • It increases with spatial diversification (correct)
  • It becomes more intermittent with spatial diversification
  • It decreases with spatial diversification

What is the purpose of stepwise variable selection?

  • To add all variables to the model at once
  • To remove all variables from the model
  • To select variables based on their predictive value (correct)
  • To randomly select variables for the model

In stepwise variable selection, how are variables added or removed from the model?

<p>Variables are added or removed based on their significance or correlation with others (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which type of changes in wind power are typically analyzed when considering power system operations?

<p>Positive and negative changes separately (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was found to be the best in point forecasting based on the text?

<p>Ensemble mean (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is considered problematic for both electricity system operators and wind farm operators?

<p>Wind power integration (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What problem does stepwise variable selection help to address?

<p>Overfitting the model with too many variables (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which statement best describes the starting point of stepwise variable selection?

<p>Start with all variables and remove them one by one (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of wind energy density forecasting, what is the purpose of ensemble predictions?

<p>Provide alternative to ARGARCH (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary consideration when selecting variables using a stepwise approach?

<p>The predictive value and correlation of variables (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is it important to eliminate some variables in stepwise variable selection?

<p>To make the model more accurate (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What factor caused a high maximum error of 5500 MW in intraday wind power prediction for Germany?

<p>Path of low-pressure system (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which evaluation method assesses the probabilistic correctness of forecasts?

<p>Reliability (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What aspect of the forecast quality assesses the ability to concentrate distribution?

<p>Sharpness (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the calibrated wind speed ensemble predictions, what does 'µtENS +k|t' represent?

<p>Mean of the ensemble members for the square root of wind speed (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What could have been avoided with extreme event correction according to the text?

<p>5500 MW maximum error (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main assessment measure for evaluating the overall quality of forecasts?

<p>Skill (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What method was used to convert 51 calibrated wind speed ensemble members into 51 wind power scenarios?

<p>Kernel density estimation (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What type of forecast benchmark is compared to evaluate wind power predictions?

<p>Linear ARIMA models (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which parameter in the square root of wind speed ensemble forecast is denoted by 'bk'?

<p>Calibration parameter (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was evaluated using ARFI-GARCH from 1995 to 2003 and calibrated ensembles from 1997 to 2003?

<p>Point Forecasting (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does 'ENSS' represent in the context of the text?

<p>Calibrated Wind Speed Ensemble Predictions (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which approach used historical forecasts/verifications, kernel smoothing, and calibration jointly estimated?

<p>Log-likelihood evaluation (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What are the main types of variability that need to be described when modeling daily wind speed data?

<p>Intraday and intraweek variability (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which wind farm has the highest annual homes equivalent based on its MW capacity?

<p>Llyn Alaw, Anglesey (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which wind turbine model was installed at Bears Down in Cornwall?

<p>Bonus 34 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When fitting AR-GARCH models to the square root of wind speed, which parameter represents the mean?

<p>$S(\mu, t)$ (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

For wind speed density construction, which types of distribution are typically used?

<p>Gaussian and Poisson distribution (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What data transformation was applied before fitting AR-GARCH models to the wind speed data?

<p>Square root transformation (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

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