Wind Power Density Monte Carlo Simulation Quiz

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What type of forecasts are required for risk management in wind energy?

Ensemble forecasts

Density forecasts (correct)

Point forecasts

Log likelihood forecasts

How is wind power variability affected by the spatial locations of wind farms?

It is not affected by spatial diversification

It increases with spatial diversification (correct)

It becomes more intermittent with spatial diversification

It decreases with spatial diversification

What is the purpose of stepwise variable selection?

To add all variables to the model at once

To remove all variables from the model

To select variables based on their predictive value (correct)

To randomly select variables for the model

In stepwise variable selection, how are variables added or removed from the model?

Variables are added or removed based on their significance or correlation with others Signup and view all the answers

Which type of changes in wind power are typically analyzed when considering power system operations?

Positive and negative changes separately Signup and view all the answers

What was found to be the best in point forecasting based on the text?

Ensemble mean Signup and view all the answers

What is considered problematic for both electricity system operators and wind farm operators?

Wind power integration Signup and view all the answers

What problem does stepwise variable selection help to address?

Overfitting the model with too many variables Signup and view all the answers

Which statement best describes the starting point of stepwise variable selection?

Start with all variables and remove them one by one Signup and view all the answers

In the context of wind energy density forecasting, what is the purpose of ensemble predictions?

Provide alternative to ARGARCH Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary consideration when selecting variables using a stepwise approach?

The predictive value and correlation of variables Signup and view all the answers

Why is it important to eliminate some variables in stepwise variable selection?

To make the model more accurate Signup and view all the answers

What factor caused a high maximum error of 5500 MW in intraday wind power prediction for Germany?

Path of low-pressure system Signup and view all the answers

Which evaluation method assesses the probabilistic correctness of forecasts?

Reliability Signup and view all the answers

What aspect of the forecast quality assesses the ability to concentrate distribution?

Sharpness Signup and view all the answers

In the calibrated wind speed ensemble predictions, what does 'µtENS +k|t' represent?

Mean of the ensemble members for the square root of wind speed Signup and view all the answers

What could have been avoided with extreme event correction according to the text?

5500 MW maximum error Signup and view all the answers

What is the main assessment measure for evaluating the overall quality of forecasts?

Skill Signup and view all the answers

What method was used to convert 51 calibrated wind speed ensemble members into 51 wind power scenarios?

Kernel density estimation Signup and view all the answers

What type of forecast benchmark is compared to evaluate wind power predictions?

Linear ARIMA models Signup and view all the answers

Which parameter in the square root of wind speed ensemble forecast is denoted by 'bk'?

Calibration parameter Signup and view all the answers

What was evaluated using ARFI-GARCH from 1995 to 2003 and calibrated ensembles from 1997 to 2003?

Point Forecasting Signup and view all the answers

What does 'ENSS' represent in the context of the text?

Calibrated Wind Speed Ensemble Predictions Signup and view all the answers

Which approach used historical forecasts/verifications, kernel smoothing, and calibration jointly estimated?

Log-likelihood evaluation Signup and view all the answers

What are the main types of variability that need to be described when modeling daily wind speed data?

Intraday and intraweek variability Signup and view all the answers

Which wind farm has the highest annual homes equivalent based on its MW capacity?

Llyn Alaw, Anglesey Signup and view all the answers

Which wind turbine model was installed at Bears Down in Cornwall?

Bonus 34 Signup and view all the answers

When fitting AR-GARCH models to the square root of wind speed, which parameter represents the mean?

$S(\mu, t)$ Signup and view all the answers

For wind speed density construction, which types of distribution are typically used?

Gaussian and Poisson distribution Signup and view all the answers

What data transformation was applied before fitting AR-GARCH models to the wind speed data?

Square root transformation Signup and view all the answers