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Questions and Answers
What type of forecasts are needed to account for uncertainty?
What type of forecasts are needed to account for uncertainty?
- Interval forecasts
- Point forecasts
- Risk forecasts
- Density forecasts (correct)
Why do decision-makers generally prefer point forecasts?
Why do decision-makers generally prefer point forecasts?
- They are more informative
- They provide a range of outcomes
- They are more reliable
- They convey over-confidence (correct)
What does a Brier score of zero indicate?
What does a Brier score of zero indicate?
- Poor performance
- Perfect forecast (correct)
- High deviation
- Uncertainty
How is the Brier score calculated for a single forecast/verification?
How is the Brier score calculated for a single forecast/verification?
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What is the Brier score used to measure?
What is the Brier score used to measure?
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What property does CRPS possess that makes it a proper score?
What property does CRPS possess that makes it a proper score?
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For which types of forecasts does CRPS reduce to the mean absolute error (MAE)?
For which types of forecasts does CRPS reduce to the mean absolute error (MAE)?
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What does CRPS stand for?
What does CRPS stand for?
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