Monte Carlo Simulation for Wind Power Density Calculation
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Questions and Answers

What type of forecasts are needed to account for uncertainty?

  • Interval forecasts
  • Point forecasts
  • Risk forecasts
  • Density forecasts (correct)

    • Why do decision-makers generally prefer point forecasts?

  • They are more informative
  • They provide a range of outcomes
  • They are more reliable
  • They convey over-confidence (correct)

    • What does a Brier score of zero indicate?

  • Poor performance
  • Perfect forecast (correct)
  • High deviation
  • Uncertainty

    • How is the Brier score calculated for a single forecast/verification?

    <p>(p - x)^2 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the Brier score used to measure?

    <p>Probability assessment accuracy (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What property does CRPS possess that makes it a proper score?

    <p>It minimizes the expected score for an observation from the forecast (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    For which types of forecasts does CRPS reduce to the mean absolute error (MAE)?

    <p>Point forecasts (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does CRPS stand for?

    <p>Continuous ranked probability score (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

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