Monte Carlo Simulation for Wind Power Density Calculation

Explore how Monte Carlo simulation and power curve can be used to convert wind speed data to wind power density. Learn about ensemble predictions, maximum likelihood approach, and interpreting wind speed ensemble forecasts.

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Questions and Answers

What type of forecasts are needed to account for uncertainty?

Density forecasts

Why do decision-makers generally prefer point forecasts?

They convey over-confidence

What does a Brier score of zero indicate?

Perfect forecast

How is the Brier score calculated for a single forecast/verification?

(p - x)^2 Signup and view all the answers

What is the Brier score used to measure?

Probability assessment accuracy Signup and view all the answers

What property does CRPS possess that makes it a proper score?

It minimizes the expected score for an observation from the forecast Signup and view all the answers

For which types of forecasts does CRPS reduce to the mean absolute error (MAE)?

Point forecasts Signup and view all the answers

What does CRPS stand for?

Continuous ranked probability score Signup and view all the answers

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