78 Questions
Which skill is required to develop hypotheses in intelligence analysis?
Establishing logical relationships
What is the purpose of developing hypotheses in intelligence analysis?
To provide a more complete explanation
What is the critical aspect of developing hypotheses in intelligence analysis?
Organizing a set of premises into an argument
Which of the following is a step in developing hypotheses?
Considering alternative perspectives
What is a recommended approach to counter biases and oversimplification?
Developing techniques to recognize biases
What should be considered when seeking additional information to test hypotheses?
Value-cost-risk tradeoffs
Which skill is closely related to seeking disconfirming evidence?
Testing alternative hypotheses
Confirmation bias affects the development of alternative hypotheses by ____.
Encouraging seeking of confirming evidence
What is the main application of seeking disconfirming evidence in intelligence analysis?
Testing alternative hypotheses
How can analysts overcome the tendency to seek confirming evidence?
By seeking disconfirming evidence
Which skill does an intelligence analyst need to continuously reevaluate their view of the situation and eliminate negative influences from their analysis?
Hypothesis development and testing
When does the dilemma of value-cost-risk tradeoffs typically occur in the intelligence analysis process?
During testing of hypotheses
What does seeking disconfirming evidence involve in the testing of hypotheses?
Collecting additional information
What is the primary concern regarding negative influences in the intelligence analysis process?
Their role in hypothesis development
Which system is described as quick, automatic, and implicit?
System 1
Which system is effortful, conscious, and deliberately controlled?
System 2
Which system is responsible for monitoring and adjusting the judgments made by the other system?
System 2
What are the principal challenges that affect critical thinking according to the text?
All of the above
What is the objective of intelligence analysis?
To develop inferences that can be acted on with confidence
What is the tradeoff when providing greater detail in intelligence analysis?
Lower level of confidence
What is the role of critical thinking within the related fields of reasoning and judgment?
Enhancing understanding and permitting empirical testing
What is the foundation of heuristic theory?
The use of two cognitive systems to make judgments
Which of the following best describes the logical relationships in intelligence analysis?
They are inductive in nature, going from the specific to the general.
What is the measure of the likelihood that the conclusion of an argument is true given that its premises are all true?
Logical strength
What is an important component of the ability to consider alternative perspectives in intelligence analysis?
Setting aside one's own inclinations and preferences
What is the purpose of developing alternative competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis?
To guide the collection of additional information
Which skill is essential for developing useful hypotheses in intelligence analysis?
Logical reasoning
What is the role of a hypothesis in intelligence analysis?
To provide a complete explanation based on facts alone
What is the measure of the degree of support that premises confer on a conclusion in intelligence analysis?
Logical strength
Which type of logic is used to derive hypotheses from available information?
Inductive logic
What is the purpose of seeking disconfirming evidence during the testing of hypotheses?
To challenge the hypotheses
What is the recommended approach to counter biases and oversimplification in intelligence analysis?
Develop alternative perspectives
Which system in intelligence analysis is described as effortful, conscious, and deliberately controlled?
System 2
What is the purpose of cognitive ergonomics in the design of future systems to support intelligence analysis?
To benefit from critical thinking skills
What are the limitations that affect critical thinking in intelligence analysis?
All of the above
What are the 11 critical thinking skills that are most important for successful intelligence analysis?
All of the above
Which of the following is a characteristic of seeking disconfirming evidence in intelligence analysis?
It is applied during the development of alternative hypotheses
What is the relationship between premises and hypothesis in the development of a hypothesis?
Inductive logic
What is the critical thinking skill required to assess the strength of logical relationships in intelligence analysis?
Numerical probability estimation
Why is the assessment of logical relationships subjective and require critical thinking in intelligence analysis?
Because the analyst will hardly ever have the type of statistical evidence needed
Which stage of the intelligence analysis process is the primary concern for negative influences?
Hypothesis development and testing
When does the dilemma of value-cost-risk tradeoffs typically occur in the intelligence analysis process?
During the stage of analysis where hypotheses are being tested
What is the main objective of seeking additional information in intelligence analysis?
To produce an inference in sufficient time and at a high enough level of confidence
What is the critical part of the process of developing a useful inference in intelligence analysis?
Evaluating the need for new information by considering value-cost-risk tradeoffs
Which of the following is a characteristic of logical relationships in intelligence analysis?
They enable the discovery of previously unknown information
What is the measure of the logical strength of an argument?
The likelihood of the conclusion being false given that the premises are all true
What is an important component of the ability to consider alternative perspectives in intelligence analysis?
Setting aside one's own inclinations and preferences
What is a common challenge that affects critical thinking in intelligence analysis?
Biases and oversimplifications
Which of the following is a key factor in the success of the intelligence analysis process?
The application of cognitive ergonomics
What does the model developed for critical thinking in intelligence analysis incorporate?
The variables discussed in the relevant literature
What is the goal of providing confidence assessments in intelligence analysis?
To enable the analyst to best meet the needs of the user
What is the primary focus of the analyst when generating and communicating subjective conditional probability estimates?
Providing the probability that the hypothesis is true
True or false: Developing hypotheses in intelligence analysis requires skill in logical reasoning?
True
True or false: The stronger an argument is, the looser the relationship between its premises and conclusion?
False
True or false: A hypothesis is a tentative explanation that is subject to further testing?
True
True or false: Negative influences can have a devastating impact on the work of an intelligence analyst.
True
True or false: The ability to continuously reevaluate one's view of the situation helps eliminate negative influences from the analysis.
True
True or false: Seeking additional information in intelligence analysis always adds value and reduces risks.
False
True or false: The value-cost-risk tradeoffs in seeking additional information are mainly encountered during hypothesis testing.
True
System 1 is a conscious and controlled process that relies on associational strengths to arrive at solutions.
False
System 2 is an automatic and intuitive process that functions effortlessly.
False
System 1 and System 2 work together and complement each other's strengths and weaknesses.
True
Cognitive ergonomics can be used to design future systems that support the intelligence process.
True
True or false: The set of hypotheses developed in intelligence analysis is based on conjecture rather than facts.
False
True or false: Logical relationships in intelligence analysis are deductive in nature, going from the general to the specific.
False
True or false: Counter biases, expectations, mindsets, and oversimplifications do not affect the thinking of intelligence analysts.
False
True or false: Seeking alternative perspectives in intelligence analysis involves developing explanations from different perspectives for the same information.
True
True or false: Developing hypotheses involves establishing logical relationships by applying inductive logic to derive one or more hypotheses from available information.
True
True or false: Seeking disconfirming evidence is a recommended approach to counter biases and oversimplification in intelligence analysis.
True
True or false: Assessing the strength of logical relationships provides a numerical probability estimate of the confidence one can have in the validity of hypotheses and inferences.
True
True or false: The goal of intelligence analysis is to provide the greatest level of detail at the highest level of confidence.
True
True or false: Providing confidence assessments enables the analyst to best meet the needs of the user.
True
True or false: The analyst must be capable of generating and communicating subjective conditional probability estimates.
True
True or false: Intelligence analysis remains highly dependent on the critical thinking skills of the human analyst.
True
True or false: Seeking disconfirming evidence is a skill that is closely related to considering alternative perspectives and counter biases in intelligence analysis.
True
True or false: Confirmation bias works to impede the development and testing of alternative competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis.
True
True or false: The skill of seeking disconfirming evidence is mainly applied during the testing of hypotheses in intelligence analysis.
True
True or false: The strength of the logical relationship between premises and hypothesis in intelligence analysis can be assessed by providing a numerical probability estimate of the confidence in the validity of hypotheses and inferences.
True
Test your knowledge about the two cognitive systems: System 1 and System
Make Your Own Quizzes and Flashcards
Convert your notes into interactive study material.
Get started for free
