9.4. Application of available technology-9.6. Conclusions
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Questions and Answers

Which skill is required to develop hypotheses in intelligence analysis?

  • Considering alternative perspectives
  • Oversimplification
  • Countering biases
  • Establishing logical relationships (correct)

    • What is the purpose of developing hypotheses in intelligence analysis?

  • To consider alternative perspectives
  • To counter biases
  • To establish logical relationships
  • To provide a more complete explanation (correct)

    • What is the critical aspect of developing hypotheses in intelligence analysis?

  • Developing a more complete explanation
  • Filling in missing gaps
  • Applying logical reasoning to data
  • Organizing a set of premises into an argument (correct)

    • Which of the following is a step in developing hypotheses?

    <p>Considering alternative perspectives</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a recommended approach to counter biases and oversimplification?

    <p>Developing techniques to recognize biases</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What should be considered when seeking additional information to test hypotheses?

    <p>Value-cost-risk tradeoffs</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which skill is closely related to seeking disconfirming evidence?

    <p>Testing alternative hypotheses</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Confirmation bias affects the development of alternative hypotheses by ____.

    <p>Encouraging seeking of confirming evidence</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the main application of seeking disconfirming evidence in intelligence analysis?

    <p>Testing alternative hypotheses</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How can analysts overcome the tendency to seek confirming evidence?

    <p>By seeking disconfirming evidence</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which skill does an intelligence analyst need to continuously reevaluate their view of the situation and eliminate negative influences from their analysis?

    <p>Hypothesis development and testing</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When does the dilemma of value-cost-risk tradeoffs typically occur in the intelligence analysis process?

    <p>During testing of hypotheses</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does seeking disconfirming evidence involve in the testing of hypotheses?

    <p>Collecting additional information</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary concern regarding negative influences in the intelligence analysis process?

    <p>Their role in hypothesis development</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which system is described as quick, automatic, and implicit?

    <p>System 1</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which system is effortful, conscious, and deliberately controlled?

    <p>System 2</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which system is responsible for monitoring and adjusting the judgments made by the other system?

    <p>System 2</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are the principal challenges that affect critical thinking according to the text?

    <p>All of the above</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the objective of intelligence analysis?

    <p>To develop inferences that can be acted on with confidence</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the tradeoff when providing greater detail in intelligence analysis?

    <p>Lower level of confidence</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the role of critical thinking within the related fields of reasoning and judgment?

    <p>Enhancing understanding and permitting empirical testing</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the foundation of heuristic theory?

    <p>The use of two cognitive systems to make judgments</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following best describes the logical relationships in intelligence analysis?

    <p>They are inductive in nature, going from the specific to the general.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the measure of the likelihood that the conclusion of an argument is true given that its premises are all true?

    <p>Logical strength</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is an important component of the ability to consider alternative perspectives in intelligence analysis?

    <p>Setting aside one's own inclinations and preferences</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the purpose of developing alternative competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis?

    <p>To guide the collection of additional information</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which skill is essential for developing useful hypotheses in intelligence analysis?

    <p>Logical reasoning</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the role of a hypothesis in intelligence analysis?

    <p>To provide a complete explanation based on facts alone</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the measure of the degree of support that premises confer on a conclusion in intelligence analysis?

    <p>Logical strength</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which type of logic is used to derive hypotheses from available information?

    <p>Inductive logic</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the purpose of seeking disconfirming evidence during the testing of hypotheses?

    <p>To challenge the hypotheses</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the recommended approach to counter biases and oversimplification in intelligence analysis?

    <p>Develop alternative perspectives</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which system in intelligence analysis is described as effortful, conscious, and deliberately controlled?

    <p>System 2</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the purpose of cognitive ergonomics in the design of future systems to support intelligence analysis?

    <p>To benefit from critical thinking skills</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are the limitations that affect critical thinking in intelligence analysis?

    <p>All of the above</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are the 11 critical thinking skills that are most important for successful intelligence analysis?

    <p>All of the above</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is a characteristic of seeking disconfirming evidence in intelligence analysis?

    <p>It is applied during the development of alternative hypotheses</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the relationship between premises and hypothesis in the development of a hypothesis?

    <p>Inductive logic</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the critical thinking skill required to assess the strength of logical relationships in intelligence analysis?

    <p>Numerical probability estimation</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why is the assessment of logical relationships subjective and require critical thinking in intelligence analysis?

    <p>Because the analyst will hardly ever have the type of statistical evidence needed</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which stage of the intelligence analysis process is the primary concern for negative influences?

    <p>Hypothesis development and testing</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When does the dilemma of value-cost-risk tradeoffs typically occur in the intelligence analysis process?

    <p>During the stage of analysis where hypotheses are being tested</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the main objective of seeking additional information in intelligence analysis?

    <p>To produce an inference in sufficient time and at a high enough level of confidence</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the critical part of the process of developing a useful inference in intelligence analysis?

    <p>Evaluating the need for new information by considering value-cost-risk tradeoffs</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is a characteristic of logical relationships in intelligence analysis?

    <p>They enable the discovery of previously unknown information</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the measure of the logical strength of an argument?

    <p>The likelihood of the conclusion being false given that the premises are all true</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is an important component of the ability to consider alternative perspectives in intelligence analysis?

    <p>Setting aside one's own inclinations and preferences</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a common challenge that affects critical thinking in intelligence analysis?

    <p>Biases and oversimplifications</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is a key factor in the success of the intelligence analysis process?

    <p>The application of cognitive ergonomics</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the model developed for critical thinking in intelligence analysis incorporate?

    <p>The variables discussed in the relevant literature</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the goal of providing confidence assessments in intelligence analysis?

    <p>To enable the analyst to best meet the needs of the user</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary focus of the analyst when generating and communicating subjective conditional probability estimates?

    <p>Providing the probability that the hypothesis is true</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Developing hypotheses in intelligence analysis requires skill in logical reasoning?

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: The stronger an argument is, the looser the relationship between its premises and conclusion?

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: A hypothesis is a tentative explanation that is subject to further testing?

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Negative influences can have a devastating impact on the work of an intelligence analyst.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: The ability to continuously reevaluate one's view of the situation helps eliminate negative influences from the analysis.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Seeking additional information in intelligence analysis always adds value and reduces risks.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: The value-cost-risk tradeoffs in seeking additional information are mainly encountered during hypothesis testing.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    System 1 is a conscious and controlled process that relies on associational strengths to arrive at solutions.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    System 2 is an automatic and intuitive process that functions effortlessly.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    System 1 and System 2 work together and complement each other's strengths and weaknesses.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Cognitive ergonomics can be used to design future systems that support the intelligence process.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: The set of hypotheses developed in intelligence analysis is based on conjecture rather than facts.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Logical relationships in intelligence analysis are deductive in nature, going from the general to the specific.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Counter biases, expectations, mindsets, and oversimplifications do not affect the thinking of intelligence analysts.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Seeking alternative perspectives in intelligence analysis involves developing explanations from different perspectives for the same information.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Developing hypotheses involves establishing logical relationships by applying inductive logic to derive one or more hypotheses from available information.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Seeking disconfirming evidence is a recommended approach to counter biases and oversimplification in intelligence analysis.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Assessing the strength of logical relationships provides a numerical probability estimate of the confidence one can have in the validity of hypotheses and inferences.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: The goal of intelligence analysis is to provide the greatest level of detail at the highest level of confidence.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Providing confidence assessments enables the analyst to best meet the needs of the user.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: The analyst must be capable of generating and communicating subjective conditional probability estimates.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Intelligence analysis remains highly dependent on the critical thinking skills of the human analyst.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Seeking disconfirming evidence is a skill that is closely related to considering alternative perspectives and counter biases in intelligence analysis.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: Confirmation bias works to impede the development and testing of alternative competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: The skill of seeking disconfirming evidence is mainly applied during the testing of hypotheses in intelligence analysis.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    True or false: The strength of the logical relationship between premises and hypothesis in intelligence analysis can be assessed by providing a numerical probability estimate of the confidence in the validity of hypotheses and inferences.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

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