Podcast
Questions and Answers
What is the first step in calculating run expectancy based on the data frame from 2018?
What is the first step in calculating run expectancy based on the data frame from 2018?
- Group by the number of outs
- Calculate the mean number of runs scored from any given event (correct)
- Create a list of all possible starting states
- Calculate the total number of runs scored
What does the variable 'runs future' represent in the data set?
What does the variable 'runs future' represent in the data set?
- Runs expected from the next game
- Total runs scored in a season
- Runs scored from the beginning of the event to the end of the inning (correct)
- Projected runs for the next inning
In the state with no runners on base and one out, what is the run expectancy?
In the state with no runners on base and one out, what is the run expectancy?
- 1.00
- 0.10
- 0.49
- 0.26 (correct)
What is the run expectancy when there are two outs and no runners on base?
What is the run expectancy when there are two outs and no runners on base?
What state has a run expectancy of just over one run?
What state has a run expectancy of just over one run?
What does the run expectancy matrix provide?
What does the run expectancy matrix provide?
How does run expectancy change with increasing outs?
How does run expectancy change with increasing outs?
What is done after calculating the list of run expectancies for each possible starting state?
What is done after calculating the list of run expectancies for each possible starting state?
What is a run value defined as in this context?
What is a run value defined as in this context?
In the first example provided, what event is suggested to have occurred?
In the first example provided, what event is suggested to have occurred?
What was the increase in run expectancy when the batter reached first base with no outs?
What was the increase in run expectancy when the batter reached first base with no outs?
What role does run expectancy play in measuring batting events?
What role does run expectancy play in measuring batting events?
What conclusion can be drawn from the example where the batter got a hit to first base?
What conclusion can be drawn from the example where the batter got a hit to first base?
What does runs value represent?
What does runs value represent?
What happens when there are three outs in an inning?
What happens when there are three outs in an inning?
Why is it necessary to create a state for three outs?
Why is it necessary to create a state for three outs?
How do start and end run expectancy matrices compare?
How do start and end run expectancy matrices compare?
What is run expectancy at the beginning of an event based on?
What is run expectancy at the beginning of an event based on?
What must be added to calculate the end run expectancy?
What must be added to calculate the end run expectancy?
What does adding an extra state for three outs enable?
What does adding an extra state for three outs enable?
What is the run expectancy when there are three outs?
What is the run expectancy when there are three outs?
What happens to run expectancy when a runner on third base scores?
What happens to run expectancy when a runner on third base scores?
What does the end run expectancy matrix include that the start run expectancy does not?
What does the end run expectancy matrix include that the start run expectancy does not?
Why does run expectancy change based on the events occurring in a game?
Why does run expectancy change based on the events occurring in a game?
What is the run expectancy at the start and end of the first event if there are no outs and no one on base?
What is the run expectancy at the start and end of the first event if there are no outs and no one on base?
In merging the end run expectancy with the main data set, which state is used for the merge?
In merging the end run expectancy with the main data set, which state is used for the merge?
How does run expectancy change if a player is put out?
How does run expectancy change if a player is put out?
What is the likely run expectancy when there are no outs and a runner is on first base?
What is the likely run expectancy when there are no outs and a runner is on first base?
What value does the end run expectancy matrix retain from the start run expectancy?
What value does the end run expectancy matrix retain from the start run expectancy?
Flashcards
Run Expectancy
Run Expectancy
The average number of runs expected to be scored from a given state (runners on base and outs) to the end of the inning.
Starting State
Starting State
A grouping of baseball events based on the number of outs and runners on base. For example, 'Runners on 1st and 2nd, 2 outs' is a specific state.
Runs Future
Runs Future
The number of runs scored from the start of the event (pitch, at bat, etc.) to the end of the inning.
Run Expectancy Matrix
Run Expectancy Matrix
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Merging Run Expectancy
Merging Run Expectancy
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Runner on Third, One Out
Runner on Third, One Out
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Calculating Run Expectancy from Data
Calculating Run Expectancy from Data
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Understanding Run Expectancy
Understanding Run Expectancy
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End State
End State
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Runs Value
Runs Value
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Run Expectancy with Three Outs
Run Expectancy with Three Outs
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End Run Expectancy
End Run Expectancy
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Combining Start and End Run Expectancy
Combining Start and End Run Expectancy
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Adding the Three-Out State
Adding the Three-Out State
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No Change Event
No Change Event
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Empty Bases, No Outs
Empty Bases, No Outs
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Increase in Run Expectancy
Increase in Run Expectancy
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Start Run Expectancy
Start Run Expectancy
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Runner on Third Base
Runner on Third Base
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Runner Scoring
Runner Scoring
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Run Expectancy Decreases
Run Expectancy Decreases
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Three Outs
Three Outs
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Study Notes
Run Expectancy Calculation
- Run expectancy (RE) is calculated based on data from 2018.
- Mean number of runs scored in an inning is calculated for each event.
- Code groups events by starting state (runners on base, outs).
- Run expectancy is calculated for each possible starting state.
- Example: 0 runners on base, no outs: RE = 0.49 (average of runs scored in that state).
- Example: 1 out, no runners: RE = 0.26.
- RE decreases as the number of outs increases.
- Starting state with runner on 3rd, 1 out: RE ≈ 1.0.
- RE values are calculated for each starting state.
Run Expectancy Matrix
- The run expectancy matrix is a table of RE values for various base states.
- Each row represents a specific configuration of runners and outs (starting state).
- Values represent average runs expected for each starting state.
- Values change depending on the number of outs and the number of runners on base.
Run Value Calculation
- Run value (RV) measures the contribution of an event.
- RV = Runs scored + (End RE - Start RE)
- Start RE is the RE at the event start.
- End RE is the RE at the event end.
- An event ending with 3 outs and no runs scored, has a RV of zero.
- The run value calculation considers the change in RE during an event.
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