Project Management Chapter 7: Managing Risk
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Questions and Answers

What factors contribute to the assessment of technical requirements in a product development project?

  • Cooperation between different functional boundaries and schedule dependence
  • Budget reliability and contractor task ambiguities
  • Stability of requirements and quality considerations in design (correct)
  • Development process procedures and customer understanding

What does Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) add to the risk severity matrix?

  • Probabilities of technical requirements instability
  • Functional boundary cooperation assessment
  • Risk Value calculation based on cost estimates
  • Ease of detection of risk events (correct)

Which of the following best describes the purpose of the risk severity matrix?

  • To prioritize which risks should be monitored and evaluated (correct)
  • To calculate the overall budget reliability
  • To assess contractor experience and staffing levels
  • To analyze the work environment conditions

What is a potential indicator that a product development project may face issues?

<p>Inexperienced or understaffed project team (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does risk value assess in project management?

<p>The impact, probability, and detection of risk events (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which action is specifically aimed at increasing the probability and positive impact of an opportunity?

<p>Enhance (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What type of funding is allocated specifically to cover identified risks?

<p>Contingency reserves (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following strategies involves notifying appropriate personnel about an opportunity without taking action to pursue it?

<p>Escalate (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How should contingency funds be managed to cover unidentified risks?

<p>Through management reserves (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which method is NOT a technique for managing schedule risks?

<p>Utilizing the best people for low-risk tasks (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In opportunity management, what does the term 'share' mean?

<p>Dividing ownership of the opportunity with others (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes time buffers?

<p>Additional time allocated to cushion against delays (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of exploiting an opportunity in project management?

<p>To ensure it definitely happens (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does a risk severity matrix help to classify?

<p>The probability and impact of a risk event (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which risk response strategy focuses on reducing the likelihood of risk events?

<p>Mitigating risk (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), what does the risk value represent?

<p>Impact times probability times detection difficulty (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which impact level indicates a scope reduction that is unacceptable to the project sponsor?

<p>Very High (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which risk event had the highest impact score in the risk assessment form?

<p>Hardware malfunctioning (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is represented by a score of 4 on the likelihood scale in the risk assessment?

<p>Likely occurrence (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which type of impact would result in an insignificant cost increase when evaluating a project?

<p>Very Low (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the PERT simulation primarily analyze?

<p>Time management (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following represents a reduction in quality that requires sponsor approval?

<p>Quality degradation in demanding applications (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does a 'Red zone' classification in the risk severity matrix indicate?

<p>Major risk (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary purpose of contingency reserves?

<p>To cover unexpected changes in project scope (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following reflects the process of managing changes in a project effectively?

<p>Changes are openly communicated and monitored. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does an approved change request signify in project management?

<p>The change has been estimated and funded. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which term describes the formal request to alter a project's original scope?

<p>Change order (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is meant by a 'risk profile' in project management?

<p>An evaluation of potential risks associated with a project (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of change management, what does 'scope creep' refer to?

<p>Uncontrolled changes or continuous growth in a project's scope (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is included in a risk register?

<p>Descriptions and responses of risks (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which action is NOT typically part of the scope change management process?

<p>Ignoring stakeholders' feedback on changes (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary goal of a change control process?

<p>To formally review and approve proposed changes (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following roles in change management involves ensuring that all parties understand the impact of changes?

<p>Project manager (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the term 'management reserves' refer to?

<p>A buffer for unforeseen changes not covered by contingency plans (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the total project budget according to the provided estimates?

<p>$1,567,000 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT a benefit of change control systems?

<p>Accelerating all changes without assessment (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the function of a change request log in project management?

<p>To document and track the status of change requests (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does risk control primarily involve?

<p>Executing the risk response strategy (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which step is NOT part of the change control process?

<p>Assigning tasks without conflict resolution (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is included in the project management reserve as shown in the estimates?

<p>$50,000 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of establishing a Change Management System?

<p>To formalize the change process and its impacts (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which value represents the most optimistic activity time in the weighted average calculation?

<p>a (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main purpose of using optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely time estimates?

<p>To estimate activity durations and variances (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which formula is used to calculate the weighted average activity time?

<p>(a + 4m + b) / 6 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the variance allow the project planner to compute?

<p>The probability of meeting different project durations (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the relationship between project duration and the probability of meeting that duration?

<p>Longer projects have higher probabilities of meeting the duration (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the formula for standard deviation of activity time, what do 'b' and 'a' represent?

<p>The best and worst case activity times (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How is the standard deviation for the project calculated?

<p>As the square-root of the sum of the variances of all critical tasks (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following correctly identifies the weighted average time estimate formula components?

<p>a: optimistic, m: most likely, b: pessimistic (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Scenario Analysis

A technique for assessing the significance of each risk event by considering its probability of occurrence and its impact on the project.

Risk Assessment Form

A tool used to evaluate the severity, probability, and detectability of potential risk events.

Risk Severity Matrix

A matrix that prioritizes risks based on their severity and probability, helping to identify which risks need to be addressed first.

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)

A systematic approach to identifying potential failures and their effects, by further considering the ease of detection of each risk in addition to its impact and probability.

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Probability Analysis

A technique that uses statistical methods to evaluate the likelihood of project risks.

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Contingency Funds

Monetary reserves set aside to handle potential project risks, both identified and unknown.

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Contingency Reserves

Portion of contingency funds specifically allocated to address known risks associated with specific project segments or deliverables.

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Management Reserves

Part of contingency funds intended to cover unforeseen risks that could impact the entire project.

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Time Buffers

Extra time added to project activities to act as a cushion against potential delays.

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Add Time Buffers to High-Risk Activities

Allocate extra time to tasks with a high probability of delay to minimize the impact on the overall schedule.

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Add Time Buffers to Merge Activities

Include extra time for activities that combine multiple tasks, as they are prone to delays due to dependencies.

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Add Time Buffers to Non-Critical Activities

Include additional time for tasks outside the critical path to reduce the risk of them becoming critical due to delays.

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Add Time Buffers to Activities Requiring Scarce Resources

Allocate extra time to tasks that require limited resources, as resource availability can cause delays.

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Project Budget

The total estimated cost of completing a project, including both the baseline budget and the contingency reserve.

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Risk Register

A comprehensive document that lists all identified risks, their details, and planned responses.

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Risk Control

The proactive process of managing and mitigating identified risks throughout the project lifecycle.

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Change Control System

A formal process for managing and approving project changes, ensuring they are intentional, documented, and assessed for impact.

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Sources of Change

Factors that may necessitate changes to the project plan, including scope modifications, contingency plan activation, or improvement requests.

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Change Control Process

A structured procedure for evaluating, approving, and implementing project changes, involving steps from identification to communication and implementation.

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Benefits of Change Control Systems

Advantages of formal change control processes, including preventing unnecessary changes, tracking change costs, and maintaining project integrity.

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Change Request

A formal document outlining a proposed modification to a project's scope, schedule, or budget.

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Change Management System

A structured process for managing change requests, ensuring they are evaluated, approved, and implemented efficiently.

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Risk

A potential event with a positive or negative impact on the project's objectives.

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Mitigating Risk

Taking steps to reduce the likelihood or impact of a risk.

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Transferring Risk

Shifting the responsibility for managing a risk to another party, often through insurance or contracts.

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Three Time Estimates

Using optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely estimates for activity durations to reflect uncertainty.

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Weighted Average Activity Time

A calculated average time for an activity, giving more weight to the most likely estimate.

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Optimistic Time (a)

The shortest time an activity could take under ideal conditions (1% chance).

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Pessimistic Time (b)

The longest time an activity could take under worst-case conditions (1% chance).

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Most Likely Time (m)

The most probable time to complete an activity under normal circumstances.

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Standard Deviation for Activity

A measure of the variability in the time estimates for a single activity.

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Standard Deviation for Project

A measure of the variability in the time estimates for the entire project.

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Probability of Meeting Project Duration

The chance of completing the project within a specific time frame.

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Risk Impact Scale

A tool used to assess the severity of a risk's potential impact on a project's objectives. It uses numerical scales (1-5) to quantify the severity of various impacts like cost, time, scope, and quality.

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Risk Value Formula

A formula used to calculate the overall risk value of a specific failure mode. Calculated by multiplying the likelihood, impact, and detection difficulty of the risk.

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Risk Response Development

The process of identifying and implementing strategies to address and manage identified risks, including mitigation, avoidance, transference, or acceptance.

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Likelihood

The probability of a risk event occurring. It is often expressed as a numerical value (1-5) representing the likelihood of the event happening.

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Impact

The severity of the negative consequences that could result from the occurrence of a risk event. It is often measured using a numerical scale (1-5) to represent the severity of the impact on various project objectives.

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Detection Difficulty

The level of difficulty in detecting the risk event early enough to take corrective actions. It is often expressed as a numerical value (1-5) representing the ease or difficulty of detecting the risk.

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Study Notes

Chapter Seven: Managing Risk

  • This chapter focuses on managing risk in project management.
  • The risk management process involves identifying, assessing, developing responses to, and controlling risks.
  • A risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on project objectives.
  • Risk management aims to recognize and manage uncertainties that may arise during project implementation.
  • Key elements of risk management include: identifying risks, assessing their impact and likelihood, developing strategies to mitigate risks, and monitoring risk response.
  • A risk event graph helps to visualize how the likelihood and cost to fix a risk event changes throughout the project lifecycle.
  • Benefits of risk management include: proactive approach, reducing surprises and negative consequences, preparing the project manager to respond appropriately, better control over the future, and improved chances of meeting project objectives.

Learning Objectives

  • Describe the risk management process.
  • Understand identifying project risks.
  • Assess the significance of different project risks.
  • Describe the five responses for managing risks.
  • Understand the role of contingency plans in risk management.
  • Grasp opportunity management and the five approaches to responding to opportunities.
  • Recognize that risk management is an ongoing process.
  • Describe the change control process.

Chapter Outline

  • Risk Management Process
  • Step 1: Risk Identification
  • Step 2: Risk Assessment
  • Step 3: Risk Response Development
  • Contingency Planning
  • Opportunity Management
  • Contingency Funding and Time Buffers
  • Step 4: Risk Response Control
  • Change Control Management

7.1 Risk Management Process

  • Risk Defined: Uncertain events with positive or negative impacts on project goals.
  • Risk Events: What could go wrong.
  • Impact: Negative consequences of risk events.
  • Anticipation: Actions to take before events occur.
  • Contingency Plans: Actions to take if risk events happen.

7.3 Step 2: Risk Assessment

  • Scenario analysis evaluates the risk significance concerning probability and impact.
  • Risk assessment forms evaluate the risk's severity, probability, and detection difficulty.
  • Risk severity matrices prioritize which risks to address.
  • Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) enhances risk severity matrices by factoring in detection ease into the risk value calculation (Impact x Probability x Detection).
  • Probability analysis uses statistical techniques to evaluate project risk.
  • Decision-trees, net present value (NPV), program evaluation and review technique (PERT) and PERT simulation are statistical techniques in assessing project risk.

7.4 Step 3: Risk Response Development

  • Mitigating Risk: Reducing unwanted events' likelihood and impact.
  • Avoiding Risk: Eliminating risk or conditions from the project plan.
  • Transferring Risk: Shifting risk ownership to another party (e.g. fixed-price contracts, insurance).
  • Escalating Risk: Notifying appropriate personnel in the organization.
  • Retaining Risk: Accepting risk of an event happening.

7.5 Contingency Planning - Contingency Plan Defined

  • An alternative plan for unforeseen risk events.
  • Serves to reduce negative impact from risk events.
  • Comes into effect only after a risk occurs.
  • Proper contingency planning can help avoid critical delays, unnecessary panics, and high-cost resolutions to problems.

7.6 Opportunity Management

  • Exploiting Opportunities: Ensuring positive events occur.
  • Sharing Opportunities: Distributing ownership to improve project potential.
  • Enhancing Opportunities: Improve the positive impact or probability of a chance.
  • Escalating Opportunities: Notifying the right project stakeholders about chances.
  • Accepting an Opportunity: Acknowledge an opportunity if it arises, without acting on it.

7.7 Contingency Funding and Time Buffers

  • Contingency Funds: Funds earmarked to address (identified, and unidentified) project risks.
  • Contingency Reserves: Cover identified risks within specific project segments/deliverables.
  • Management Reserves: Cover unknown risks across the total project.
  • Time Buffers: Time added to activities with high risks to accommodate potential delays.
  • Managing Time Buffers: Increase or add buffers to non-critical activities, activities that share or rely on scarce resources, & activities at high risk of delay to reduce the probability of delay.

7.8 Step 4: Risk Response Control

  • Maintain a register of all project risks and their status.
  • Keep watch for new risks.
  • Implement risk responses as outlined in the plan.
  • Monitor risk events and adjust the plan when necessary.
  • A change management system helps to oversee, track, and manage changes.

7.9 Change Control Management

  • Sources of Change: Project scope changes, contingency implementation, & ongoing improvements.
  • Change Management Systems: Identify proposed changes, document their impacts (on schedule and budget), formally reviewing/approving/rejecting changes, negotiating and resolving conflicts, communicating changes, assigning responsibility for implementation, adjusting budgets/schedules, and meticulously tracking all authorized changes.

Appendix 7.1: PERT and PERT Simulation

  • PERT-Program Evaluation and Review Technique: An approach to manage project duration with a statistical perspective, using a set of time estimates for each activity within a project to derive project probabilities.
  • Assumes activity durations have a range that follows a beta distribution employing optimistic, pessimistic, and likely estimations.
  • Computation of weighted average time estimates and variances for project activities using PERT estimates help determine the probability of project success, with more prolonged projects having a higher chance of successfully meeting their duration goal. Activity and project frequency distributions are used, alongside formulas for project average activity time and project standard deviation, to arrive at the critical path duration and predicted project duration probabilities.

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Explore the intricacies of managing risk in project management with Chapter Seven. This chapter delves into the risk management process, highlighting key elements like risk identification, assessment, and response development. Understand how to control uncertainties to improve the chances of achieving project objectives.

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