Podcast
Questions and Answers
What is the purpose of illness scripts?
What is the purpose of illness scripts?
What is the definition of prevalence?
What is the definition of prevalence?
What is the purpose of physical exams in the diagnostic process?
What is the purpose of physical exams in the diagnostic process?
What is the best estimate of disease probability before a test is conducted?
What is the best estimate of disease probability before a test is conducted?
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Which of the following is true about likelihood ratios?
Which of the following is true about likelihood ratios?
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What does a likelihood ratio less than 1 indicate?
What does a likelihood ratio less than 1 indicate?
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What is the purpose of creating a problem list in the process of differential diagnosis?
What is the purpose of creating a problem list in the process of differential diagnosis?
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What is the availability heuristic in the differential diagnosis process?
What is the availability heuristic in the differential diagnosis process?
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When should clinicians start considering differential diagnoses?
When should clinicians start considering differential diagnoses?
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What is the equation for calculating the positive likelihood ratio (LR+)?
What is the equation for calculating the positive likelihood ratio (LR+)?
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What is the equation for calculating the negative likelihood ratio (LR-)?
What is the equation for calculating the negative likelihood ratio (LR-)?
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What do you need to be careful of when applying multiple LR's?
What do you need to be careful of when applying multiple LR's?
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What is the significance of pathognomonic findings?
What is the significance of pathognomonic findings?
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What is the equation for calculating the positive likelihood ratio (LR+)?
What is the equation for calculating the positive likelihood ratio (LR+)?
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What is the purpose of the differential diagnosis process?
What is the purpose of the differential diagnosis process?
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What are the potential errors that can occur during the differential diagnosis process?
What are the potential errors that can occur during the differential diagnosis process?
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What factors should be considered when generating a differential diagnosis?
What factors should be considered when generating a differential diagnosis?
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What are the steps involved in the process of differential diagnosis?
What are the steps involved in the process of differential diagnosis?
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What is the purpose of history-taking in the diagnostic process?
What is the purpose of history-taking in the diagnostic process?
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What are illness scripts and how do they aid in the diagnostic process?
What are illness scripts and how do they aid in the diagnostic process?
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What is a differential diagnosis and why is it important?
What is a differential diagnosis and why is it important?
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What is the significance of physical exams in the diagnostic process?
What is the significance of physical exams in the diagnostic process?
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A naturopathic doctor has just obtained some initial information from a patient about her main concern. What is the next step?
A naturopathic doctor has just obtained some initial information from a patient about her main concern. What is the next step?
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If a practitioner is seeking to obtain valuable medical information while exposing the patient to minimal harm, discomfort or inconvenience, what aspect of the diagnostic process will they engage in?
If a practitioner is seeking to obtain valuable medical information while exposing the patient to minimal harm, discomfort or inconvenience, what aspect of the diagnostic process will they engage in?
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In what section of a medical chart would we be most likely to include information about symptoms?
In what section of a medical chart would we be most likely to include information about symptoms?
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What term is used to describe a mental summary of a practitioner's knowledge of a disease?
What term is used to describe a mental summary of a practitioner's knowledge of a disease?
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What single attribute of a test will best help a practitioner determine its value as evidence as it relates to a particular condition?
What single attribute of a test will best help a practitioner determine its value as evidence as it relates to a particular condition?
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How might illness scripts most help in creating a differential diagnosis?
How might illness scripts most help in creating a differential diagnosis?
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When comparing disease illness scripts, which of the following should you do?
When comparing disease illness scripts, which of the following should you do?
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Obsessive compulsive disorder typically begins before age 25. This information is part of what illness script component?
Obsessive compulsive disorder typically begins before age 25. This information is part of what illness script component?
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A patient complains of a headache that started with mild pain this morning and has been getting worse over the course of the day with no periods of relief. How would the timing best be described?
A patient complains of a headache that started with mild pain this morning and has been getting worse over the course of the day with no periods of relief. How would the timing best be described?
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A portion of a syndrome statement in a patient illness scripts reads as follows: "unilateral headaches with phonophobia". What might the patient have indicated during the intake?
A portion of a syndrome statement in a patient illness scripts reads as follows: "unilateral headaches with phonophobia". What might the patient have indicated during the intake?
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What is the purpose of gathering some information about the patient's chief concern before considering a differential diagnosis?
What is the purpose of gathering some information about the patient's chief concern before considering a differential diagnosis?
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A naturopathic student intern reads a book whose central thesis is that a condition which is thought to be rare is in fact common. If they are not careful, which cognitive bias may worsen their diagnostic performance as a result?
A naturopathic student intern reads a book whose central thesis is that a condition which is thought to be rare is in fact common. If they are not careful, which cognitive bias may worsen their diagnostic performance as a result?
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How should one proceed from the beginning of the encounter through the development of a differential diagnosis?
How should one proceed from the beginning of the encounter through the development of a differential diagnosis?
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An intern proposes a diagnosis for one of their patients because "the symptoms all fit". What might the intern have failed to consider that would most help create a strong list of differentials?
An intern proposes a diagnosis for one of their patients because "the symptoms all fit". What might the intern have failed to consider that would most help create a strong list of differentials?
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What is the main value of differential diagnosis?
What is the main value of differential diagnosis?
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According to the majority of research discussed in class, a number of cognitive biases are consistent with what error(s) when estimating probability in medicine?
According to the majority of research discussed in class, a number of cognitive biases are consistent with what error(s) when estimating probability in medicine?
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An intern completes a patient intake and is convinced that the patient they've seen has a rare disease, because "the symptoms match perfectly!" What should the intern's supervisor be most concerned that the intern is doing?
An intern completes a patient intake and is convinced that the patient they've seen has a rare disease, because "the symptoms match perfectly!" What should the intern's supervisor be most concerned that the intern is doing?
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You are discussing a patient case with your colleagues at the teaching clinic and voice uncertainty about the probability that your patient with joint pain has Disease X
Ariana points out that patients with joint pain are diagnosed with Disease X 14% of the time in a primary care setting
Bradley mentions that 60-70% of patients with Disease X have joint pain similar to what your patient described to you
Carla claims that the prevalence of Disease X in Canada is 1-2% of the population, according to recent statistics
Danaka adds that government statistics on the lifetime prevalence of Disease X in Canadians is 30%
Assuming all of them are correct, which is the best to use for a pretest probability?
You are discussing a patient case with your colleagues at the teaching clinic and voice uncertainty about the probability that your patient with joint pain has Disease X
Ariana points out that patients with joint pain are diagnosed with Disease X 14% of the time in a primary care setting Bradley mentions that 60-70% of patients with Disease X have joint pain similar to what your patient described to you Carla claims that the prevalence of Disease X in Canada is 1-2% of the population, according to recent statistics Danaka adds that government statistics on the lifetime prevalence of Disease X in Canadians is 30% Assuming all of them are correct, which is the best to use for a pretest probability?
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A patient describes her headaches as "all over" her head. They are accompanied by nausea and occasional vomiting which can occur first thing in the morning. She has been feeling tired lately and has been making more mistakes at work.
Thinking of differentials, you consider the following facts:
These are some of the classic symptoms of a brain tumor
Headaches occur in about 50% of patients with brain tumors
Cognitive dysfunction occurs in about 35% of patients with brain tumors
In general practice, one study found that 0.1% of people presenting with headache had primary brain tumors
Which option is closest to the most reasonable pretest probability that this patient has a brain tumor?
A patient describes her headaches as "all over" her head. They are accompanied by nausea and occasional vomiting which can occur first thing in the morning. She has been feeling tired lately and has been making more mistakes at work.
Thinking of differentials, you consider the following facts:
These are some of the classic symptoms of a brain tumor Headaches occur in about 50% of patients with brain tumors Cognitive dysfunction occurs in about 35% of patients with brain tumors In general practice, one study found that 0.1% of people presenting with headache had primary brain tumors Which option is closest to the most reasonable pretest probability that this patient has a brain tumor?
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Which of the following would make for the best reference class for use in estimating a pretest probability?
Which of the following would make for the best reference class for use in estimating a pretest probability?
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You are investigating the evidence involved in the diagnosis of infectious mononucleosis. You find the following data:
Finding LR+ LR-
splenomegaly 7.0 0.94
any cervical adenopathy 2.1 0.22
posterior cervical adenopathy 3.1 0.69
headache 1.3 0.73
Which of the following combinations of findings should you avoid applying (i.e. you should apply evidence from only one of the findings)?
You are investigating the evidence involved in the diagnosis of infectious mononucleosis. You find the following data:
Finding LR+ LR- splenomegaly 7.0 0.94 any cervical adenopathy 2.1 0.22 posterior cervical adenopathy 3.1 0.69 headache 1.3 0.73 Which of the following combinations of findings should you avoid applying (i.e. you should apply evidence from only one of the findings)?
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You are reading an article about the diagnosis of infectious mononucleosis and see the following likelihood ratios:
7.0
0.94
0.3
0.03
Which LR represents the minimum information you would need to move your estimate of the probability from approximately 10% to less than 1%?
You are reading an article about the diagnosis of infectious mononucleosis and see the following likelihood ratios:
7.0 0.94 0.3 0.03 Which LR represents the minimum information you would need to move your estimate of the probability from approximately 10% to less than 1%?
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With which pretest probability would your estimate of the probability change the most If you applied evidence with an LR of 5?
With which pretest probability would your estimate of the probability change the most If you applied evidence with an LR of 5?
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A naturopathic doctor claims that the treatment they recommend for CIN 1 (a condition where there are slightly abnormal cervical cells) is effective. They say that 75% of the women they treat who have CIN 1 find that their condition resolves. Before deciding how persuasive this evidence should be, what further piece of information would be most important to consider?
A naturopathic doctor claims that the treatment they recommend for CIN 1 (a condition where there are slightly abnormal cervical cells) is effective. They say that 75% of the women they treat who have CIN 1 find that their condition resolves. Before deciding how persuasive this evidence should be, what further piece of information would be most important to consider?
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You are looking for diagnostic evidence in the literature and are having difficulty finding likelihood ratios. What should you look for in order to be able to calculate likelihood ratios?
You are looking for diagnostic evidence in the literature and are having difficulty finding likelihood ratios. What should you look for in order to be able to calculate likelihood ratios?
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A ____________ is a manifestation of disease reported by a patient. It is considered ___________
A ____________ is a manifestation of disease reported by a patient. It is considered ___________
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____________ focuses on patients’ ideas and feelings about illness and impact on life (fears, expectations)
____________ focuses on patients’ ideas and feelings about illness and impact on life (fears, expectations)
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A ________ is to learn, compare and contrast conditions where as a __________ facilitates differential diagnosis
A ________ is to learn, compare and contrast conditions where as a __________ facilitates differential diagnosis
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A ___________ is a list of conditions that are candidates for explaining patient’s concerns
A ___________ is a list of conditions that are candidates for explaining patient’s concerns
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What is a premature close?
What is a premature close?
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___________ new occurrences of a condition in a specific population over a given period
___________ new occurrences of a condition in a specific population over a given period
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__________________ probability below which the diagnosis is so unlikely it is excluded without further testing
__________________ probability below which the diagnosis is so unlikely it is excluded without further testing
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___________ describes the probability above which the diagnosis is so likely you would treat the patient without further testing
___________ describes the probability above which the diagnosis is so likely you would treat the patient without further testing
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A _____________ is a manifestation of a disease that the clinician perceives (see, hear, feel, etc.). It is considered ______
A _____________ is a manifestation of a disease that the clinician perceives (see, hear, feel, etc.). It is considered ______
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A red flag is a ________________________
A red flag is a ________________________
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What are the four main categories included in an illness script?
What are the four main categories included in an illness script?
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After making your simple problem list, you would want to make a ___________
After making your simple problem list, you would want to make a ___________
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____________ is a way to obtain information from a patient and compare this information to one’s understanding of different conditions to generate multiple hypotheses
____________ is a way to obtain information from a patient and compare this information to one’s understanding of different conditions to generate multiple hypotheses
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Most _____________ not typically the most serious and consequences of missing a serious diagnosis are higher
Most _____________ not typically the most serious and consequences of missing a serious diagnosis are higher
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_____________ are particularly subject to the availability heuristic
_____________ are particularly subject to the availability heuristic
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________________ is a cognitive bias or mental shortcut that individuals use when making judgments or decisions
________________ is a cognitive bias or mental shortcut that individuals use when making judgments or decisions
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What are the three main things to consider in a differential diagnosis? (three P's)
What are the three main things to consider in a differential diagnosis? (three P's)
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___________ is what conditions have the best benefit to harm ratio if treated
___________ is what conditions have the best benefit to harm ratio if treated
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_______________ is how likely something is usually on a scale of 0-100%
_______________ is how likely something is usually on a scale of 0-100%
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Respondents _______________ the probability of a diagnosis before and after testing
Respondents _______________ the probability of a diagnosis before and after testing
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___________ is consistent with cognitive biases, including base rate neglect, anchoring bias and confirmation bias
___________ is consistent with cognitive biases, including base rate neglect, anchoring bias and confirmation bias
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___________ is a human trait; substitute judgments of representativeness for judgments of actual probability
___________ is a human trait; substitute judgments of representativeness for judgments of actual probability
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_______________ describes the degree to which something is representative of, or similar to, the stereotype
_______________ describes the degree to which something is representative of, or similar to, the stereotype
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An uncommon presentation of a _______________ is more likely than a common presentation of a _________________
An uncommon presentation of a _______________ is more likely than a common presentation of a _________________
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What is a pretest probability?
What is a pretest probability?
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Best reference class is the __________________________
Best reference class is the __________________________
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A basic reference class uses the _________________________________
A basic reference class uses the _________________________________
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What are the cons to using a basic reference class?
What are the cons to using a basic reference class?
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______________________ refers to studies that give eventual diagnosis in patients presenting with complaints similar to your patient’s
______________________ refers to studies that give eventual diagnosis in patients presenting with complaints similar to your patient’s
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What are the pros to using a specific reference class?
What are the pros to using a specific reference class?
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What are the two things you should NOT use for reference classes?
What are the two things you should NOT use for reference classes?
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______________ is a number representing the diagnostic usefulness of a test
______________ is a number representing the diagnostic usefulness of a test
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What is the general written equation for LR?
What is the general written equation for LR?
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Describe what it means if LR = 1
Describe what it means if LR = 1
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Describe what it means if LR >1
Describe what it means if LR >1
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Describe what it means if LR < 1
Describe what it means if LR < 1
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A positive LR means that the finding was ____________
A positive LR means that the finding was ____________
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A negative LR means the finding was __________
A negative LR means the finding was __________
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____________________ considers patients who have the disease, the probability that the test will be positive; probability that you would see certain evidence if your hypothesis was true
____________________ considers patients who have the disease, the probability that the test will be positive; probability that you would see certain evidence if your hypothesis was true
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_________ considers patients who do not have the disease, the probability that your test will be negative; complement probability that you would see the same evidence if your hypothesis were false
_________ considers patients who do not have the disease, the probability that your test will be negative; complement probability that you would see the same evidence if your hypothesis were false
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For ______________ pretest probabilities, you can increase your pretest probability by a certain % based on the LR
For ______________ pretest probabilities, you can increase your pretest probability by a certain % based on the LR
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For _________________ pretest probabilities, you can multiply the probability by ____________ to get an estimate
For _________________ pretest probabilities, you can multiply the probability by ____________ to get an estimate
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A positive predictive value (PPV) is the probability that a disease is ______________________
A positive predictive value (PPV) is the probability that a disease is ______________________
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A negative predictive value (NPV) is the probability that disease is ________________________
A negative predictive value (NPV) is the probability that disease is ________________________
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What are pathognomonic findings?
What are pathognomonic findings?
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_____________ are findings which if absent, strongly decreases the probability of a condition
_____________ are findings which if absent, strongly decreases the probability of a condition
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What are the four main errors that occur in practice when applying evidence?
What are the four main errors that occur in practice when applying evidence?
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Study Notes
Purpose of Illness Scripts
- Illness scripts help clinicians organize knowledge about diseases and assist in generating differential diagnoses.
- They encompass key features of diseases, enhancing diagnostic accuracy and efficiency.
Definition of Prevalence
- Prevalence refers to the proportion of a population affected by a specific condition within a given time frame.
Purpose of Physical Exams
- Physical exams are essential for evaluating patients, confirming clinical suspicion, and providing data for accurate diagnosis.
Disease Probability Before Testing
- The best estimate of disease probability before a test is the pretest probability based on clinical judgment and existing data.
Likelihood Ratios
- Likelihood ratios quantify the probability of a condition being present given a specific test result.
- A likelihood ratio less than 1 indicates that the finding decreases the probability of the condition.
Role of Problem Lists in Differential Diagnosis
- Creating a problem list organizes patient symptoms and guides differential diagnosis by identifying potential conditions to consider.
Availability Heuristic
- This cognitive bias occurs when clinicians rely too heavily on recent experiences or easily recalled examples when diagnosing.
Timing for Considering Differential Diagnoses
- Clinicians should start considering differential diagnoses as soon as they have enough initial information about the patient's symptoms.
Positive Likelihood Ratio Equation (LR+)
- LR+ = Sensitivity / (1 - Specificity)
Negative Likelihood Ratio Equation (LR-)
- LR- = (1 - Sensitivity) / Specificity
Cautions When Applying Multiple LRs
- Applying multiple likelihood ratios requires careful consideration to avoid misinterpretation of combined evidence.
Significance of Pathognomonic Findings
- Pathognomonic findings are specific signs that reliably indicate a particular disease, providing strong evidence for diagnosis.
Purpose of Differential Diagnosis
- The differential diagnosis process aims to systematically identify potential conditions that could explain a patient's symptoms.
Potential Errors in Differential Diagnosis
- Errors may include premature closure, cognitive biases, misinterpretation of symptoms, or disregarding significant findings.
Factors in Generating Differential Diagnosis
- Consideration of patient's history, presenting symptoms, disease prevalence, and specific risk factors is essential.
Steps in Differential Diagnosis Process
- Initial assessment, problem list creation, consideration of potential diagnoses, and further testing or imaging if needed.
Purpose of History-Taking
- History-taking gathers comprehensive information about symptoms, helping clarify the clinical picture and guiding further evaluation.
Definition of Differential Diagnosis
- A differential diagnosis is a list of potential diagnoses for a patient's symptoms, crucial for systematic evaluation.
Next Steps After Initial Information Gathering
- Following initial information, obtaining a detailed patient history or performing a physical exam is essential for clarification.
Minimizing Patient Harm in Diagnostic Process
- Engaging in patient-centered history-taking and physical examinations prioritizes acquiring valuable information with minimal discomfort.
Medical Chart Symptom Information Section
- Symptoms are primarily recorded in the "Subjective" section of a medical chart.
Mental Summary of Disease Knowledge
- The term "illness script" describes a clinician's mental summary of their knowledge about a specific disease.
Key Attribute of Diagnostic Tests
- The most valuable attribute is the test's likelihood ratio, which indicates its effectiveness in changing the probability of disease.
Illness Scripts and Differential Diagnosis
- Illness scripts facilitate differential diagnosis by providing a structured framework for comparing various diseases.
Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder Component
- Its typical onset before age 25 illustrates a demographic characteristic within an illness script component.
Describing Headache Timing
- The headache's progression from mild to worse throughout the day signifies an acute onset with no relief.
Indications During Intake (Unilateral Headaches)
- Phonophobia accompanying unilateral headaches may suggest a migraine or similar condition during patient intake.
Purpose of Gathering Chief Concern Information
- Initial gathering of information is essential to align diagnostic consideration with the patient's most pressing issues.
Biases Impacting Diagnostic Performance
- The availability heuristic may cause misdiagnoses, particularly for conditions perceived as rare due to recent literature exposure.
Process Through Differential Diagnosis
- Begin with a comprehensive history and examination, followed by comparative analysis to generate a robust differential list.
Potential Oversight in Diagnosis Proposal
- Failing to consider alternative diagnoses may limit the intern's perspective and lead to inaccurate conclusions.
Main Value of Differential Diagnosis
- It enhances the accuracy of diagnoses, ensuring appropriate treatment plans by exploring all potential conditions.
Cognitive Biases in Probability Estimation
- Common cognitive biases include base rate neglect, anchoring bias, and confirmation bias, leading to possible errors in estimates.
Concern with Intern's Rare Disease Diagnosis
- Concern arises if the intern relies solely on symptom matching, neglecting broader diagnostic considerations.
Best Pretest Probability in Joint Pain Case
- The best pretest probability for Disease X is derived from the most relevant statistic among the colleagues' claims.
Reasonable Pretest Probability for Brain Tumor
- Estimating the pretest probability for a brain tumor based on the given symptoms would be approximately 0.1%.
Reference Class for Pretest Probability
- The best reference class is comprised of patients exhibiting similar symptoms or demographic markers to those of the current patient.
Likelihood Ratios for Infectious Mononucleosis
- Avoid combining findings with low LR values (e.g., headache) with significant findings, as this could dilute the overall diagnostic value.
Minimum LR for Probability Change
- An LR of 0.3 is required to shift an initial estimate from around 10% to less than 1%.
Pretest Probability Changes with LR of 5
- Using an LR of 5 leads to the most substantial change when applied to a lower pretest probability.
Importance of Effectiveness Evidence in Treatment
- Evaluating the percentage of effective treatment cases is essential to assess the credibility of a naturopathic doctor's claims.
Finding Likelihood Ratios in Literature
- Look for studies that correlate diagnostic tests with specific conditions for evidence to calculate likelihood ratios.
Patient Reported Manifestation of Disease
- A "symptom" is a manifestation reported by a patient and is subjective in nature.
Focus in Patient Interviewing
- "Patient-centered approach" focuses on an individual’s thoughts, feelings, fears, and expectations about their illness.
Learning and Comparing Conditions
- "Illness scripts" learn about conditions, whereas a "differential diagnosis" aids in finding potential causes of symptoms.
List of Candidate Conditions
- A "problem list" includes conditions that could explain the patient's concerns for systematic investigation.
Premature Closure in Diagnosis
- Premature closure occurs when a clinician stops searching for alternative diagnoses too early in the evaluation process.
Incidence Definition
- "Incidence" refers to new occurrences of a condition within a specific population over a designated time period.
Diagnostic Thresholds
- "Exclusion threshold" indicates the probability below which a diagnosis is unlikely and requires no further testing.
- "Treatment threshold" refers to the probability above which a diagnosis is highly likely, warranting treatment without testing.
Clinician Perceived Manifestation of Disease
- A "sign" is a manifestation observed by a clinician and is considered objective, contrasting a patient's subjective symptom.
Red Flag Definition
- A "red flag" is a serious finding that indicates a potentially significant issue requiring immediate attention.
Components of an Illness Script
- Four main categories of an illness script include epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical features, and management.
Post Problem List Action
- After creating a problem list, prioritize and refine it to establish a more focused differential diagnosis.
Comparison and Hypothesis Generation in Diagnosis
- "Clinical reasoning" helps in comparing patient information against different conditions to hypothesize potential diagnoses.
Non-serious Diagnoses Consideration
- Most non-serious conditions present risks that, while notable, are manageable compared to serious potential diagnoses.
Cognitive Bias in Decision Making
- "Cognitive shortcut" is a mental strategy to simplify decision-making, which may lead to diagnostic errors.
Considerations in Differential Diagnosis
- The three key aspects of differential diagnosis include prevalence, presentation, and patient characteristics (three P's).
Benefit-to-Harm Ratio in Conditions
- Assessing the benefit-to-harm ratio determines which conditions are most justified to treat, balancing risks and outcomes.
Probability Scale in Diagnosis
- Probabilities in diagnosis usually range from 0-100%, representing the likelihood of a condition based on available evidence.
Respondents and Probability Estimation
- Clinicians should evaluate the probability of a diagnosis before and after obtaining diagnostic tests to adjust clinical approaches.
Consistent Cognitive Biases
- Probabilistic reasoning errors often stem from biases like base rate neglect, anchoring, or confirmation bias.
Representativeness in Diagnoses
- "Representativeness" indicates how closely a patient’s presentation aligns with stereotypical features of a specific condition.
Presentation Type in Diagnostics
- An uncommon presentation of a common condition could deceive clinicians more than a common presentation of a rare disease.
Pretest Probability Clarification
- Pretest probability defines the likelihood of a diagnosis before conducting diagnostic tests.
Reference Class Utility
- The best reference class provides a foundational context of patients whose presentations align with the patient in question.
Basic Reference Class Limitations
- Basic reference classes lack specificity and may include irrelevant data, leading to less accurate estimations.
Studies Correlating Similar Symptoms
- "Diagnostic studies" provide invaluable evidence relevant to the eventual diagnosis of patients with symptoms akin to those presented.
Specific Reference Class Advantages
- Specific reference classes tailor estimates to closely matched populations, enhancing diagnostic precision.
Reference Classes to Avoid
- Avoid using anecdotal evidence or personal experiences as reference classes as these can skew perception of prevalence and likelihood.
Diagnostic Usefulness
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Test your knowledge on probability and its role in decision-making. Explore the concept of overestimating probabilities and its impact on medical diagnoses. Learn about cognitive biases such as base rate neglect and confirmation bias. Discover how overestimation can lead to medication overuse and excessive procedures. Take this quiz to enhance your understanding of probability and its practical implications.