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Questions and Answers
What is the reference category for self-perceived health status?
What is the reference category for self-perceived health status?
Which region is marked as the reference category in the dataset?
Which region is marked as the reference category in the dataset?
What percentage of senior citizens in the sample have private insurance?
What percentage of senior citizens in the sample have private insurance?
What is the primary focus of predictive analytics?
What is the primary focus of predictive analytics?
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Which of the following is NOT considered a legitimate use for predictive analytics?
Which of the following is NOT considered a legitimate use for predictive analytics?
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Which machine learning technique primarily focuses on predictive analytics?
Which machine learning technique primarily focuses on predictive analytics?
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What does the term 'chronic illnesses' refer to in the dataset?
What does the term 'chronic illnesses' refer to in the dataset?
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How many senior citizens are included in the sample mentioned?
How many senior citizens are included in the sample mentioned?
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Who are the primary beneficiaries of algorithmic transparency in XAI?
Who are the primary beneficiaries of algorithmic transparency in XAI?
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What does realistic representation in XAI primarily focus on?
What does realistic representation in XAI primarily focus on?
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Which of the following is NOT one of the primary goals of the stakeholders of XAI?
Which of the following is NOT one of the primary goals of the stakeholders of XAI?
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What role do domain experts play in the context of realistic representation in XAI?
What role do domain experts play in the context of realistic representation in XAI?
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What do external regulators primarily inspect regarding AI technologies?
What do external regulators primarily inspect regarding AI technologies?
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Which group is mainly concerned with the ethical implications of AI deployments?
Which group is mainly concerned with the ethical implications of AI deployments?
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What aspect of AI does prescriptive actionability concern in XAI?
What aspect of AI does prescriptive actionability concern in XAI?
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Trustworthiness, confidence, and generalizability are concepts related to which aspect of XAI?
Trustworthiness, confidence, and generalizability are concepts related to which aspect of XAI?
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What does a lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE) indicate about predictions?
What does a lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE) indicate about predictions?
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Why is it essential to have explanations behind accurate predictions in prescriptive analytics?
Why is it essential to have explanations behind accurate predictions in prescriptive analytics?
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What is a consequence of relying solely on accurate models without understanding how they work?
What is a consequence of relying solely on accurate models without understanding how they work?
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What does Explainable AI (XAI) aim to provide in the context of predictive modeling?
What does Explainable AI (XAI) aim to provide in the context of predictive modeling?
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What capability does simulation provide in the context of prescriptive analytics?
What capability does simulation provide in the context of prescriptive analytics?
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Which statement best describes the relationship between accurate predictions and explanations in prescriptive analytics?
Which statement best describes the relationship between accurate predictions and explanations in prescriptive analytics?
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What is the role of input features in prescriptive analytics?
What is the role of input features in prescriptive analytics?
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What defines high controllability of concepts for managers?
What defines high controllability of concepts for managers?
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What is the primary responsibility of managers under conditions of high control?
What is the primary responsibility of managers under conditions of high control?
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Which analytics stage provides managers with insights based on past data?
Which analytics stage provides managers with insights based on past data?
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What should managers do when they have low or no control over a concept?
What should managers do when they have low or no control over a concept?
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What is the goal of prescriptive analytics for managers?
What is the goal of prescriptive analytics for managers?
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What is a key focus of ethical responsibility in explainable AI (XAI)?
What is a key focus of ethical responsibility in explainable AI (XAI)?
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Explainable AI (XAI) helps managers by providing which of the following?
Explainable AI (XAI) helps managers by providing which of the following?
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Why is actionable explanation important for managers?
Why is actionable explanation important for managers?
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Which of the following best describes prescriptive actionability in XAI?
Which of the following best describes prescriptive actionability in XAI?
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In the context of XAI, what does privacy refer to?
In the context of XAI, what does privacy refer to?
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During which conditions should managers anticipate and measure the concept's values?
During which conditions should managers anticipate and measure the concept's values?
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What is an ALE plot used for in the context of XAI?
What is an ALE plot used for in the context of XAI?
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Which group of stakeholders is prioritized by managers when implementing XAI?
Which group of stakeholders is prioritized by managers when implementing XAI?
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What challenge does XAI face when balancing accuracy and explainability?
What challenge does XAI face when balancing accuracy and explainability?
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Which aspect of XAI involves stimulating interaction with users?
Which aspect of XAI involves stimulating interaction with users?
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In the context of XAI, what is the relevance of causality?
In the context of XAI, what is the relevance of causality?
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What is the significance of the Ultimate concept in a project?
What is the significance of the Ultimate concept in a project?
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Which of the following accurately describes a Relevant concept?
Which of the following accurately describes a Relevant concept?
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What should managers do regarding concepts designated as Not Relevant?
What should managers do regarding concepts designated as Not Relevant?
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Which option correctly describes the control levels of concepts?
Which option correctly describes the control levels of concepts?
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In the context of actionable explanations, what is the outcome of classifying concepts?
In the context of actionable explanations, what is the outcome of classifying concepts?
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What is a potential managerial implication of having a high control concept?
What is a potential managerial implication of having a high control concept?
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What does the term 'relevance' imply in actionable explanations?
What does the term 'relevance' imply in actionable explanations?
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Which of the following is NOT a key attribute of concepts in actionable explanation?
Which of the following is NOT a key attribute of concepts in actionable explanation?
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Flashcards
Predictive Analytics
Predictive Analytics
Analyzing past data to predict future outcomes, assuming the future will resemble the past.
Target Outcome
Target Outcome
The specific result or event being predicted.
Input Factors
Input Factors
The variables used to predict the target outcome.
Supervised Machine Learning
Supervised Machine Learning
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High-Accuracy Estimation
High-Accuracy Estimation
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Automated Machine Learning (AutoML)
Automated Machine Learning (AutoML)
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Prioritize
Prioritize
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Benchmark
Benchmark
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Prescriptive Analytics
Prescriptive Analytics
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Explainable AI (XAI)
Explainable AI (XAI)
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What makes accurate predictions valuable?
What makes accurate predictions valuable?
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What are the limitations of accurate predictions without explanations?
What are the limitations of accurate predictions without explanations?
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Why are meaningful explanations important for prescriptive analytics?
Why are meaningful explanations important for prescriptive analytics?
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How do simulations support prescriptive analytics?
How do simulations support prescriptive analytics?
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What is the goal of prescriptive analytics?
What is the goal of prescriptive analytics?
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How does prescriptive analytics differ from predictive analytics?
How does prescriptive analytics differ from predictive analytics?
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Ethical Responsibility in XAI
Ethical Responsibility in XAI
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Fairness in XAI
Fairness in XAI
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Privacy in XAI
Privacy in XAI
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Prescriptive Actionability in XAI
Prescriptive Actionability in XAI
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Causality in XAI
Causality in XAI
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Interactive Explanations in XAI
Interactive Explanations in XAI
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Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) Plots
Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) Plots
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Median Line in ALE Plots
Median Line in ALE Plots
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XAI Stakeholders
XAI Stakeholders
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XAI for Algorithmic Transparency
XAI for Algorithmic Transparency
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XAI for Realistic Representation
XAI for Realistic Representation
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Algorithmic Transparency in XAI
Algorithmic Transparency in XAI
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Realistic Representation in XAI
Realistic Representation in XAI
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Trustworthiness in Realistic Representation
Trustworthiness in Realistic Representation
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Domain Experts in XAI
Domain Experts in XAI
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Model Representation Variety
Model Representation Variety
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Ultimate Concept
Ultimate Concept
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Relevant Concept
Relevant Concept
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Not Relevant Concept
Not Relevant Concept
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Controllable Concept
Controllable Concept
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Uncontrollable Concept
Uncontrollable Concept
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Actionable Explanation Types
Actionable Explanation Types
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Concept Analysis
Concept Analysis
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Re-verification
Re-verification
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Controllability of Concepts
Controllability of Concepts
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High Control
High Control
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Low Control
Low Control
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No Control
No Control
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Managerial Implications of Controllability
Managerial Implications of Controllability
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High Control: Managerial Responsibility
High Control: Managerial Responsibility
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Low or No Control: Managerial Observation
Low or No Control: Managerial Observation
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Responding to Concept Changes
Responding to Concept Changes
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Study Notes
Prescriptive Analytics and Explainable AI
- Prescriptive Analytics and Explainable AI (XAI) are presented in a business context, within a postgraduate program (PGE M1).
- Chitu Okoli, Professor of Digitalization from SKEMA Business School, Paris, is the presenter.
Conscientious Commerce
- Conscientious Commerce is contrasted with Pure Money Commerce
- Pure Money Commerce is characterized by buying low, selling high, with no concern for the other person in the transaction.
- Conscientious Commerce prioritizes creating value and ensuring fair deals for all parties. It centers on the ethical principle of being honest and transparent.
Data Analytics Stages
- Data analytics has three stages:
- Descriptive analytics
- Predictive analytics
- Prescriptive analytics
Descriptive Analytics and Data Visualization
- Descriptive analysis examines past data to identify patterns and trends.
- Data visualization presents data in an engaging, insightful manner, facilitating easy understanding and accurate interpretation.
- Data visualization should be accurate and not misleading, avoiding statistical tricks.
Role-playing Exercise (Health Insurance)
- The exercise focuses on health insurance management for senior citizens (age 66 and older).
- US private health insurance often covers all medical costs, in contrast to systems such as France's mutuelle, which allows individuals to contribute to potential future costs.
- Balancing providing adequate care with reducing costs and maximizing profit is crucial for the exercise's scenario.
US National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) Dataset
- This dataset is for analyzing hospital stays and related factors in a sample group of US aging citizens (66+ years).
- Variables include hospital stays, self-perceived health, chronic illnesses, activities of daily living, region, age, gender, marriage status, education, income, employment status, private insurance and Medicaid coverage.
AI-Powered Descriptive Analytics (Microsoft Excel)
- Al-powered descriptive analytics capabilities are available in Microsoft Excel, facilitating easier data analysis.
Predictive Analytics
- Predictive Analytics analyzes past data to forecast future outcomes, assuming the future will mirror the past.
- It focuses on accurately estimating the target outcome using input factors, which can include incidental details.
- Predictive analytics use cases include prioritizing actions, simulating scenarios, and anticipating outcomes with limited manager control.
Altair Al Studio (RapidMiner)
- Altair Al Studio (RapidMiner) is a data analysis tool, visualizing a user interface with various aspects of model building.
Best-Performing Model for Predicting Hospital Stays
- Evaluating models depends on factors such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE).
- Lower values suggest greater accuracy in the predictions.
Gradient Boosted Tree Model
- Gradient Boosted Trees is a model for predicting hospital stays.
- Key factors associated with the number of hospital stays might include demographic and health data such as income, chronic illnesses, health status, activity levels, and insurance. These are determined/ranked by analysis of model weights .
Prescriptive Analytics
- Prescriptive Analytics analyzes the past to determine how to intervene to create a better future compared to the past.
- It prioritizes improving target results, not replicating previous outcomes.
- Prescriptive analytics aims to establish how, why and to what extent variables influence a certain outcome (the ultimate).
Accurate Predictions without Explanations
- Accurate predictions are valuable but limited without explanations. Managers are unlikely to trust models where they don't understand the underlying logic.
Explainable AI (XAI)
- Explainable AI (XAI) provides meaningful explanations about how models make decisions and why they make these decisions.
- XAI is critical to understand how the model functions, build trust, and understand relationships between model outputs and the various underlying input variables.
Stakeholders of XAI
- Stakeholders include managers, users, developers, and external regulators who are all interested in XAI in different ways.
- Their different goals include algorithmic transparency (developers), realistic model representation (managers/users), ethical responsibility (all), and the ability to take prescriptive actionable steps (all).
Primary Goals of Stakeholders of XAI
- Algorithmic transparency
- Realistic representation
- Ethical responsibility
- Prescriptive actionability:
XAI for Algorithmic Transparency
A high level explanation of a model's functioning without diving into intricate technical details is a key feature for understanding model outputs in human-understandable terms.
XAI for Realistic Representation
- XAI explains how an AI model reflects real-world scenarios
- Models must be reliable, trustworthy, and consistently applicable to other contexts.
- Domain experts verify correspondence between model outputs and real-world data.
XAI for Ethical Responsibility
- XAI aims to align AI with human values such as fairness and ethical behavior.
- XAI helps identify biased data in training models.
- XAI considers the tradeoff between model accuracy and ethical behavior.
XAI for Prescriptive Actionability
- XAI clarifies how AI output can inform actionable human decisions.
- XAI emphasizes the identification of cause and effect relationships in model results.
- XAI helps with interactive simulations to observe and model different scenarios.
Relationships among Stakeholders' Goals for XAI
- Relationships among the stakeholders (developers, users and regulators) are highlighted graphically.
Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) Plots
- ALE plots show the relationship between factors (y values) and the effects of variables (x values) on the predictions.
- Median values depict minimal influence, while plots further away from the line indicate strong effects.
Actionable Explanation Process
- Methodology and analysis steps used for deriving actionable insights
Relevance of Concepts
- Ultimate (target): This is the most important factor.
- Relevant concepts: Can be manipulated positively to achieve the ultimate outcome.
- Not relevant concepts: Do not affect the ultimate outcome.
Controllability of Concepts
- Extent to which managers can change variable values
- High control: The concept value is greatly influenced by managers.
- Low control: Concept values can be influenced by managers but are affected by other factors.
- No control: Managers have no influence over concept values.
Summary
- Descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics offer valuable insights.
- Explainable AI (XAI) enables managers to understand and react to AI model predictions proactively.
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Description
Explore the concepts of Prescriptive Analytics and Explainable AI in a business context with insights from Chitu Okoli, a Professor at SKEMA Business School. This quiz covers the stages of data analytics, contrasting Conscientious Commerce with Pure Money Commerce, and the importance of data visualization.