Prescriptive Analytics and Explainable AI (PGE M1)
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Questions and Answers

What is the reference category for self-perceived health status?

  • Average (correct)
  • Limited
  • Poor
  • Excellent
  • Which region is marked as the reference category in the dataset?

  • Northeast
  • Midwest
  • Other (correct)
  • West
  • What percentage of senior citizens in the sample have private insurance?

  • 15%
  • 9%
  • 75% (correct)
  • 85%
  • What is the primary focus of predictive analytics?

    <p>High-accuracy estimation of the target outcome (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is NOT considered a legitimate use for predictive analytics?

    <p>Improving day-to-day operations (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which machine learning technique primarily focuses on predictive analytics?

    <p>Supervised machine learning (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the term 'chronic illnesses' refer to in the dataset?

    <p>The number of chronic conditions (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How many senior citizens are included in the sample mentioned?

    <p>4,406 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Who are the primary beneficiaries of algorithmic transparency in XAI?

    <p>Developers of AI building models (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does realistic representation in XAI primarily focus on?

    <p>Explaining how the AI reflects a faithful representation of real-world scenarios (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is NOT one of the primary goals of the stakeholders of XAI?

    <p>Technical Complexity (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What role do domain experts play in the context of realistic representation in XAI?

    <p>They verify the model’s real-world correspondence and may act as users or managers. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What do external regulators primarily inspect regarding AI technologies?

    <p>Legal compliance and user impact (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which group is mainly concerned with the ethical implications of AI deployments?

    <p>External regulators inspecting compliance (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What aspect of AI does prescriptive actionability concern in XAI?

    <p>Offering practical recommendations based on AI results (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Trustworthiness, confidence, and generalizability are concepts related to which aspect of XAI?

    <p>Realistic Representation (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does a lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE) indicate about predictions?

    <p>Predictions are more accurate (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why is it essential to have explanations behind accurate predictions in prescriptive analytics?

    <p>To ensure the reliability of the model (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a consequence of relying solely on accurate models without understanding how they work?

    <p>The model may become unreliable over time (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does Explainable AI (XAI) aim to provide in the context of predictive modeling?

    <p>Meaningful explanations for managerial action (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What capability does simulation provide in the context of prescriptive analytics?

    <p>Estimating effects of various actions on target variables (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which statement best describes the relationship between accurate predictions and explanations in prescriptive analytics?

    <p>Explanations help to validate accurate predictions. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the role of input features in prescriptive analytics?

    <p>They guide the analysis to suggest intervention priorities. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What defines high controllability of concepts for managers?

    <p>Total influence on the values of the concept (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary responsibility of managers under conditions of high control?

    <p>Shape the concept to create desired changes (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which analytics stage provides managers with insights based on past data?

    <p>Descriptive analytics (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What should managers do when they have low or no control over a concept?

    <p>Measure and observe the concept's values (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the goal of prescriptive analytics for managers?

    <p>To suggest actions for shaping the future (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a key focus of ethical responsibility in explainable AI (XAI)?

    <p>Providing insights into model biases and fairness (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Explainable AI (XAI) helps managers by providing which of the following?

    <p>Understanding of factors influencing predictions (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why is actionable explanation important for managers?

    <p>It emphasizes analysis results with the greatest impact potential (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following best describes prescriptive actionability in XAI?

    <p>It explains how AI results can influence human decision-making. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the context of XAI, what does privacy refer to?

    <p>The risks of AI models exposing private information. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    During which conditions should managers anticipate and measure the concept's values?

    <p>When they lack control or have limited control (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is an ALE plot used for in the context of XAI?

    <p>Illustrating the average predictions and the effects of variables. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which group of stakeholders is prioritized by managers when implementing XAI?

    <p>Managers focusing on actionable insights for real objectives (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What challenge does XAI face when balancing accuracy and explainability?

    <p>More ethical models may sacrifice some level of accuracy. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which aspect of XAI involves stimulating interaction with users?

    <p>Interactive explanations for decision support (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the context of XAI, what is the relevance of causality?

    <p>Understanding how variables influence one another for decision-making. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the significance of the Ultimate concept in a project?

    <p>Every project must have at least one distinct Ultimate concept. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following accurately describes a Relevant concept?

    <p>It is studied and confirmed to affect the Ultimate positively or negatively. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What should managers do regarding concepts designated as Not Relevant?

    <p>They should periodically verify if they still classify as Not Relevant. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which option correctly describes the control levels of concepts?

    <p>Concepts can be designated as high, low, or no control. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the context of actionable explanations, what is the outcome of classifying concepts?

    <p>To indicate which concepts may affect the Ultimate concept. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a potential managerial implication of having a high control concept?

    <p>Managers should actively shape the concept to their advantage. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the term 'relevance' imply in actionable explanations?

    <p>It refers to the discernable importance of a concept in affecting outcomes. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is NOT a key attribute of concepts in actionable explanation?

    <p>Perspective (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Flashcards

    Predictive Analytics

    Analyzing past data to predict future outcomes, assuming the future will resemble the past.

    Target Outcome

    The specific result or event being predicted.

    Input Factors

    The variables used to predict the target outcome.

    Supervised Machine Learning

    A machine learning method primarily used for predictive analytics.

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    High-Accuracy Estimation

    Making highly accurate predictions about a target outcome.

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    Automated Machine Learning (AutoML)

    Software that automatically selects and trains machine learning models.

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    Prioritize

    To organize tasks or activities by importance and urgency.

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    Benchmark

    A standard or point of reference for comparison.

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    Prescriptive Analytics

    Predicting future outcomes and suggesting actions to improve them, focusing on understanding the relationships between input factors and target outcomes.

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    Explainable AI (XAI)

    Making machine learning models understandable by humans, providing insights into how they work and why they produce certain predictions.

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    What makes accurate predictions valuable?

    Accurate predictions are valuable because they can provide insights into future trends and help make informed decisions.

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    What are the limitations of accurate predictions without explanations?

    Without explanations, accurate predictions can be limited in their usefulness because they lack transparency and context.

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    Why are meaningful explanations important for prescriptive analytics?

    Meaningful explanations enable managers to understand the relationships between variables and target outcomes, guiding them to make informed decisions.

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    How do simulations support prescriptive analytics?

    Simulations allow us to test different scenarios and predict the effects of actions based on accurate predictive models.

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    What is the goal of prescriptive analytics?

    The goal of prescriptive analytics is not just to predict the future, but to actively intervene to improve target outcomes.

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    How does prescriptive analytics differ from predictive analytics?

    Prescriptive analytics aims to improve future outcomes by understanding and influencing factors, while predictive analytics focuses solely on predicting future outcomes.

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    Ethical Responsibility in XAI

    XAI that ensures AI aligns with human values like fairness, privacy, and freedom.

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    Fairness in XAI

    XAI highlighting biases in training data and results to ensure impartial AI outcomes.

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    Privacy in XAI

    XAI addressing the risk of AI models unintentionally revealing private information.

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    Prescriptive Actionability in XAI

    XAI explaining how AI results can guide human decisions to achieve specific goals.

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    Causality in XAI

    XAI identifying cause-and-effect relationships between variables to understand the reasoning behind AI's recommendations.

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    Interactive Explanations in XAI

    XAI providing interactive tools to allow users to simulate and compare different scenarios based on AI's insights.

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    Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) Plots

    Visualizations in XAI that demonstrate the impact of each input variable on the AI model's predictions.

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    Median Line in ALE Plots

    Represents how much impact each input variable has on the AI model's predictions, with a stronger effect the further away from the line.

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    XAI Stakeholders

    Individuals or groups impacted by AI decisions and involved in its development and regulation.

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    XAI for Algorithmic Transparency

    Explaining how AI arrives at results in a human-understandable way, focusing on the 'why' rather than the technical details.

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    XAI for Realistic Representation

    Ensuring AI's outputs accurately reflect real-world scenarios and can be reliably applied in different contexts.

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    Algorithmic Transparency in XAI

    XAI techniques that make the internal decision-making process of AI models clear and understandable.

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    Realistic Representation in XAI

    XAI techniques that ensure AI models accurately represent the real-world scenarios they are designed to handle.

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    Trustworthiness in Realistic Representation

    The degree to which users can rely on AI model outputs to be accurate and reliable.

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    Domain Experts in XAI

    Experts in specific fields who validate that AI models match real-world scenarios and can be applied effectively.

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    Model Representation Variety

    The ability of different machine learning models to accurately reflect real-world scenarios, with some models being more suited than others.

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    Ultimate Concept

    The most important concept in a project, directly impacting the desired outcome. It's the target or label in supervised learning.

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    Relevant Concept

    A concept that directly influences the Ultimate Concept and has been confirmed through analysis.

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    Not Relevant Concept

    A concept that doesn't influence the Ultimate Concept, confirmed through analysis. It's valuable to identify these to save resources.

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    Controllable Concept

    A concept that can be manipulated or influenced by managers to impact the Ultimate Concept.

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    Uncontrollable Concept

    A concept that cannot be directly controlled by managers, but they can still observe and adapt.

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    Actionable Explanation Types

    Classifications of concepts based on their relevance and controllability, guiding managers on how to best utilize them.

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    Concept Analysis

    The process of studying concepts to determine their relevance, controllability, and impact on the Ultimate Concept.

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    Re-verification

    The periodic re-evaluation of concepts previously deemed Not Relevant to ensure their continued irrelevance.

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    Controllability of Concepts

    The degree to which managers can influence a concept's values. It depends on the relationship between the concept and managerial actions.

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    High Control

    Managers have a significant or complete influence on a concept's values. They can directly shape the concept to achieve their desired outcomes.

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    Low Control

    Managers have some influence on a concept's values, but external factors play a major role. Their actions have a limited impact.

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    No Control

    Managers have no influence whatsoever on a concept's values. External, uncontrollable factors determine its course.

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    Managerial Implications of Controllability

    The way managers should respond to different levels of control over a concept.

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    High Control: Managerial Responsibility

    Managers with high control are responsible for shaping the concept to achieve desired outcomes.

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    Low or No Control: Managerial Observation

    Managers with low or no control should focus on measuring and observing the concept, and identifying appropriate responses to its changes.

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    Responding to Concept Changes

    Managers should proactively identify and implement effective responses to changes in observed values of concepts.

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    Study Notes

    Prescriptive Analytics and Explainable AI

    • Prescriptive Analytics and Explainable AI (XAI) are presented in a business context, within a postgraduate program (PGE M1).
    • Chitu Okoli, Professor of Digitalization from SKEMA Business School, Paris, is the presenter.

    Conscientious Commerce

    • Conscientious Commerce is contrasted with Pure Money Commerce
    • Pure Money Commerce is characterized by buying low, selling high, with no concern for the other person in the transaction.
    • Conscientious Commerce prioritizes creating value and ensuring fair deals for all parties. It centers on the ethical principle of being honest and transparent.

    Data Analytics Stages

    • Data analytics has three stages:
      • Descriptive analytics
      • Predictive analytics
      • Prescriptive analytics

    Descriptive Analytics and Data Visualization

    • Descriptive analysis examines past data to identify patterns and trends.
    • Data visualization presents data in an engaging, insightful manner, facilitating easy understanding and accurate interpretation.
    • Data visualization should be accurate and not misleading, avoiding statistical tricks.

    Role-playing Exercise (Health Insurance)

    • The exercise focuses on health insurance management for senior citizens (age 66 and older).
    • US private health insurance often covers all medical costs, in contrast to systems such as France's mutuelle, which allows individuals to contribute to potential future costs.
    • Balancing providing adequate care with reducing costs and maximizing profit is crucial for the exercise's scenario.

    US National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) Dataset

    • This dataset is for analyzing hospital stays and related factors in a sample group of US aging citizens (66+ years).
    • Variables include hospital stays, self-perceived health, chronic illnesses, activities of daily living, region, age, gender, marriage status, education, income, employment status, private insurance and Medicaid coverage.

    AI-Powered Descriptive Analytics (Microsoft Excel)

    • Al-powered descriptive analytics capabilities are available in Microsoft Excel, facilitating easier data analysis.

    Predictive Analytics

    • Predictive Analytics analyzes past data to forecast future outcomes, assuming the future will mirror the past.
    • It focuses on accurately estimating the target outcome using input factors, which can include incidental details.
    • Predictive analytics use cases include prioritizing actions, simulating scenarios, and anticipating outcomes with limited manager control.

    Altair Al Studio (RapidMiner)

    • Altair Al Studio (RapidMiner) is a data analysis tool, visualizing a user interface with various aspects of model building.

    Best-Performing Model for Predicting Hospital Stays

    • Evaluating models depends on factors such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE).
    • Lower values suggest greater accuracy in the predictions.

    Gradient Boosted Tree Model

    • Gradient Boosted Trees is a model for predicting hospital stays.
    • Key factors associated with the number of hospital stays might include demographic and health data such as income, chronic illnesses, health status, activity levels, and insurance. These are determined/ranked by analysis of model weights .

    Prescriptive Analytics

    • Prescriptive Analytics analyzes the past to determine how to intervene to create a better future compared to the past.
    • It prioritizes improving target results, not replicating previous outcomes.
    • Prescriptive analytics aims to establish how, why and to what extent variables influence a certain outcome (the ultimate).

    Accurate Predictions without Explanations

    • Accurate predictions are valuable but limited without explanations. Managers are unlikely to trust models where they don't understand the underlying logic.

    Explainable AI (XAI)

    • Explainable AI (XAI) provides meaningful explanations about how models make decisions and why they make these decisions.
    • XAI is critical to understand how the model functions, build trust, and understand relationships between model outputs and the various underlying input variables.

    Stakeholders of XAI

    • Stakeholders include managers, users, developers, and external regulators who are all interested in XAI in different ways.
    • Their different goals include algorithmic transparency (developers), realistic model representation (managers/users), ethical responsibility (all), and the ability to take prescriptive actionable steps (all).

    Primary Goals of Stakeholders of XAI

    • Algorithmic transparency
    • Realistic representation
    • Ethical responsibility
    • Prescriptive actionability:

    XAI for Algorithmic Transparency

    A high level explanation of a model's functioning without diving into intricate technical details is a key feature for understanding model outputs in human-understandable terms.

    XAI for Realistic Representation

    • XAI explains how an AI model reflects real-world scenarios
    • Models must be reliable, trustworthy, and consistently applicable to other contexts.
    • Domain experts verify correspondence between model outputs and real-world data.

    XAI for Ethical Responsibility

    • XAI aims to align AI with human values such as fairness and ethical behavior.
    • XAI helps identify biased data in training models.
    • XAI considers the tradeoff between model accuracy and ethical behavior.

    XAI for Prescriptive Actionability

    • XAI clarifies how AI output can inform actionable human decisions.
    • XAI emphasizes the identification of cause and effect relationships in model results.
    • XAI helps with interactive simulations to observe and model different scenarios.

    Relationships among Stakeholders' Goals for XAI

    • Relationships among the stakeholders (developers, users and regulators) are highlighted graphically.

    Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) Plots

    • ALE plots show the relationship between factors (y values) and the effects of variables (x values) on the predictions.
    • Median values depict minimal influence, while plots further away from the line indicate strong effects.

    Actionable Explanation Process

    • Methodology and analysis steps used for deriving actionable insights

    Relevance of Concepts

    • Ultimate (target): This is the most important factor.
    • Relevant concepts: Can be manipulated positively to achieve the ultimate outcome.
    • Not relevant concepts: Do not affect the ultimate outcome.

    Controllability of Concepts

    • Extent to which managers can change variable values
    • High control: The concept value is greatly influenced by managers.
    • Low control: Concept values can be influenced by managers but are affected by other factors.
    • No control: Managers have no influence over concept values.

    Summary

    • Descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics offer valuable insights.
    • Explainable AI (XAI) enables managers to understand and react to AI model predictions proactively.

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    Description

    Explore the concepts of Prescriptive Analytics and Explainable AI in a business context with insights from Chitu Okoli, a Professor at SKEMA Business School. This quiz covers the stages of data analytics, contrasting Conscientious Commerce with Pure Money Commerce, and the importance of data visualization.

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