Pattern Analysis Chapter 5

Pattern Analysis (Chapter 5)

• Tactical analysts typically work with two weeks of data
• Collation aggregation of data involves grouping data based on similarities
• Commonality refers to an exact match in a crime pattern area. Similarity refers to a close match in a crime pattern area
• Clearance rate is calculated by dividing the number of cleared cases by the total number of cases, then multiplying by 100
• MO summary is a method of manually synthesizing multiple crime event narratives to identify patterns.
• Information is gathered from occurrence reports, tips, and social media to better understand crime patterns (who, what, where, how?)
• Types of Crimes Patterns:
  • Series: A group of similar crimes believed to be committed by the same individual or group.
  • Spree: A series of crimes committed in a short time period, often characterized by violence and killing.
  • Hot Prey: Crimes targeting individuals who share similar characteristics or behaviors, such as gang killings.
  • Hot Product: Crimes directed at a specific type of property, such as espionage which targets classified information.
  • Hot Place: Crimes committed in a specific location, often repeated by the same individuals.

Analyzing Crime Frequency

• Tactical analysts analyze data from 24 hours to three months to identify short-term trends.
• Strategic analysts analyze data from three months to a decade to identify long-term trends.
• Two ways to analyze crime frequency:
  • Frequency distribution: Groups values in a dataset based on predetermined categories, highlighting trends.
  • Crosstabulation: A table that shows the relationship between two or more variables, used for further data analysis.
• Weighted Time Span Analysis: A method analyzing frequency fluctuations based on factors like weather, school attendance, or work schedules.

Temporal Intervals

• Accelerating: A decrease in the number of days between incidents.
• Decelerating: An increase in the number of days between incidents.
• Constant: A steady pattern in the number of days between incidents.
• Random: No discernible pattern in the timing of incidents.

Trend Comparisons

• Comparing monthly/yearly trends to other crime categories, jurisdictions, or other relevant data helps understand the significance of the trends.
• Tempogram is a graphical representation of temporal intervals between crime events in a series.

Crime Analysis (Chapter 4)

• Crime analysis aims to improve societal safety and security by reducing crime.
• Crime prevention uses proactive measures to minimize opportunities for crime.
• Crime analysis does not involve crime scene investigation, forensic profiling, or analysis of physical evidence.
• Tactical Crime Analysis: Provides immediate analytical support for cases, examining incident data from 24 hours to three months.
• Strategic Crime Analysis: Focuses on long-term crime reduction objectives by analyzing data over extended periods (3 months to decades). It uses both primary and secondary data, facts, and theories.

Environmental Criminology

• Environmental criminology focuses on understanding why crime occurs in specific locations and situations, rather than why individuals become criminals.
• It explores how environmental factors create opportunities for crime.

The Crime Triangle

• The Crime Triangle includes:
  • Offender: The person committing the crime.
  • Target/Victim: Can be a human or an inanimate object.
  • Place: Any physical location including a temporal dimension.

Routine Activities Theory and the Problem Analysis Triangle

• Crime pattern theory states that opportunities for crime arise when the activity spaces of potential offenders and potential victims/targets overlap.
• Offenders often commit crimes within their familiar activity spaces, especially places they frequent due to their daily routines.
• Pareto principle: A small number of places account for a large proportion of crime events (20/80 rule).
• The Law of Crime Concentration states that 50% of crime happens in 2 to 6% of micro places, and these hotspots remain stable.
• True Repeats: A target is victimized on multiple occasions by the same type of crime.
• Near Repeats: Offenses occur at locations near where similar crimes have happened previously.
• Displacement: When crime shifts to a new location due to increased security or police presence in the original location.
• Micro Hotspots: Small, specific locations with an elevated crime rate, often concentrated around known crime generators.
• Micro-Hotspot Analysis: A method of identifying and analyzing micro hotspots to develop effective intervention strategies.