Money and Its Forms: Potosi's Silver Impact

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Questions and Answers

What is the primary function of money as defined in the Oxford Dictionary?

  • A digital record of ownership for stock trading
  • A collectible item that holds no intrinsic value
  • A generally accepted medium of exchange (correct)
  • A government-issued certificate for purchasing land

Which type of money is issued by a government and not backed by commodities?

  • Fiat money (correct)
  • Token money
  • Gold standard money
  • Commodity money

What was a significant outcome of the influx of silver from Potosi into Europe?

  • It led to the establishment of the gold standard
  • It completely eradicated the barter system in Europe
  • It caused widespread financial collapse in Europe
  • It facilitated the development of capitalism (correct)

What form of currency includes items like grains and shells as agreed valuable objects?

<p>Commodity money (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What economic structure did Potosi contribute to being the first city of capitalism?

<p>Monetary-based economy (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What drove other European countries to pursue colonial opportunities following Spain's wealth from silver?

<p>Competition for global influence and power (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does token money typically allow individuals to exchange for?

<p>The equivalent currency value (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which aspect reflects the shared consensus of value in currency?

<p>The agreed worth perceived by the society (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What major financial assurance was created in Canada during 1967-1968?

<p>Canadian Deposit Insurance (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is said to be essential for new innovations like Bitcoin and Apple Pay to function effectively?

<p>Trust in the currency (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which EU member state has a formal opt-out clause from adopting the euro?

<p>Denmark (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What prompted the European nations to realize the necessity for monetary cooperation in the 1960s?

<p>Cracks in the Bretton Woods arrangement (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What economic structure was introduced in Europe as a response to restored stability in the 1970s?

<p>Currency Snake (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What document initiated the plan for a common European currency?

<p>Treaty of Rome (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does ECU stand for in the context of the European Monetary System?

<p>European Currency Unit (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which two concepts define the basis of the European Monetary System?

<p>Fixed rates and capital mobility (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which countries primarily supported strict economic convergence for monetary integration?

<p>Germany and the Netherlands (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

During which decade did economic crises in Europe lead to the failure of the 'currency snake'?

<p>1970s (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the ultimate goal of the European Monetary Union as proposed by Jacques Delors?

<p>Replacing national currencies with euros (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What were the three stages proposed for the implementation of the Economic and Monetary Union?

<p>Coordination, Transfer of Sovereignty, and Full Handover (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What major concern did Germany have about deeper monetary cooperation?

<p>Potential inflation risks (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the primary purpose of the creation of the Bank of England in 1694?

<p>To finance the government's naval wars (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following accurately describes the role of the Federal Reserve?

<p>It regulates and controls the banking system. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What significant event led to the establishment of the Federal Reserve in the United States?

<p>The financial crisis of 1907 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What major change occurred in Canada regarding its monetary system in 1931?

<p>Canada abandoned the gold standard. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a key feature of chartered banks in Canada?

<p>They provide loans and take deposits. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements about the Bank of Canada is true?

<p>It was initially controlled by private interests. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which factor influenced the chartered banks' conservative nature in British North America?

<p>The fear of centralized authority leading to a monopoly. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What distinct feature characterized the banking system in Canada compared to that in the United States prior to 1923?

<p>A stable and regulated banking structure. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What led to the creation of a more open and competitive banking system in Canada in the 1960s?

<p>The Royal Commission's recommendations. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was one of the primary functions of the first real central bank, the Bank of England, towards the end of the 18th century?

<p>To print and manage currency. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role did J.P. Morgan play during the banking crisis in New York City before the creation of the Federal Reserve?

<p>He provided funds to stabilize the banking system. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In what year was the Bank of Canada officially established?

<p>1935 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one of the primary objectives of the Federal Reserve?

<p>To maximize employment. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was a major factor that allowed Germany to support the launch of the monetary union?

<p>Winning support for German reunification (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which country negotiated an opt-out from the monetary union?

<p>United Kingdom (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What significant treaty was signed in 1992 to facilitate the monetary union?

<p>Maastricht Treaty (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following was NOT one of the Maastricht convergence criteria?

<p>High employment rates (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What event in Denmark in 1992 caused uncertainty about the monetary union?

<p>A referendum rejecting the Maastricht Treaty (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What year did stage three of the monetary union officially begin?

<p>1999 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why did the euro initially present a challenge to the US dollar in international markets?

<p>It was hoped that the euro could rival the dollar for foreign reserves. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How significant was the euro's role in financial transactions compared to the US dollar?

<p>The euro accounted for 20% of foreign-exchange reserves. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was created in 1994 as a precursor to the European Central Bank?

<p>The European Monetary Institute (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which countries did not meet the conditions to join the monetary union initially?

<p>Greece and Sweden (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What major crisis threatened the progress of the euro in the late 1990s?

<p>The crisis marked by speculation against weaker currencies (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was one of the effects of having an international presence for the euro?

<p>Easier for governments to raise money at cheap rates (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was one of the characteristics of the euro after its launch?

<p>It became the most popular currency for foreign-denominated debt initially. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What proportion of euro banknotes by value is held outside the euro area?

<p>Between 30% and 50% (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What factors contributed to the euro's declining importance compared to the dollar?

<p>Changes in America's international economic policy (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the EU aim to achieve by boosting the euro's international use?

<p>Strategic autonomy from America (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How did the pandemic affect perceptions of the euro's credibility?

<p>It increased confidence in the euro due to economic support measures. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was a significant response by the EU to enhance the euro's international appeal?

<p>Introduction of the NGEU bond issuance scheme (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a key feature of the NGEU bonds that supports international investment in euros?

<p>They are backed by all EU member states' balance sheets. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the lack of a 'safe asset' in the eurozone imply for its use as a reserve currency?

<p>It complicates cross-border financial operations. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of these challenges remains for the eurozone's international currency aspirations?

<p>Risk-sharing mechanisms for banks (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is America's dollar often considered a dominant global currency?

<p>It is supported by a larger amount of tradable debt. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What potential impact could digital currencies issued by central banks have on the dollar's status?

<p>It might disrupt existing network effects that support the dollar. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a concern regarding the sustainability of the NGEU bonds?

<p>They may only be a temporary solution. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a perceived risk of relying on the dollar for international transactions?

<p>Companies face penalties for non-compliance with US laws. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does 'exorbitant privilege' refer to in the context of the dollar?

<p>The unique advantages the dollar holds as a reserve currency. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is a potential future scenario for global currencies?

<p>A return to a multi-currency dominance before World War II. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one way that deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) can narrow?

<p>Via movements in prices (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why might rich countries have a higher cost of living compared to poor countries?

<p>Their wages are generally higher (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which outcome indicates that buying the cheapest currency from the Big Mac index would have been successful less frequently?

<p>It yielded gains 12 out of 15 times (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the adjusted Big Mac index account for when evaluating currency valuation?

<p>A country's level of GDP per person (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does Ken Rogoff suggest about purchasing power parity (PPP) in the short term?

<p>Few economists take it seriously (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was a major concern regarding the potential sale of the Borsa group?

<p>State intervention in foreign acquisitions (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What recurring theme was noted about the gains from trading currencies based on PPP?

<p>They yield respectable but unspectacular returns (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was indicated as a potential consequence if Deutsche Börse acquired MTS?

<p>Diverting clearing business from LCH (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which currency was highlighted as undervalued consistently in the adjusted Big Mac index?

<p>The Hong Kong dollar (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is often required for a successful transaction in foreign exchanges based on PPP according to research?

<p>Long-term investment strategies (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary characteristic of a currency board system?

<p>The domestic currency is fully backed by a foreign reserve currency. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What characterizes a free floating exchange rate system?

<p>The currency value is determined solely by market forces. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following currencies is pegged to the Euro?

<p>Bulgarian Lev (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes a managed floating exchange rate?

<p>The central bank intervenes to stabilize the currency as needed. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a key feature of a free-floating exchange rate system?

<p>It has no currency targets or central bank intervention. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which system allows some intervention but has preset limits for currency movements?

<p>Semi-fixed exchange rate system (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why would a country opt for a managed depreciation in currency?

<p>To improve competitiveness and trade balance. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What would a central bank in a fixed exchange rate system primarily focus on?

<p>Maintaining the fixed exchange rate. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a fixed exchange rate system, what is essential for the central bank?

<p>It must hold sufficient foreign exchange reserves to maintain the peg. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What significant changes occurred in 2022 affecting dollar dominance?

<p>Tightening of Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a characteristic of a semi-fixed currency system?

<p>It requires central banks to actively maintain an official exchange rate. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is typically involved in managing a floating exchange rate like that of the Singapore dollar?

<p>Adjustment against a narrow band of currencies. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What did the sanctions against Russia's Central Bank demonstrate?

<p>The limitations of using currencies other than the dollar. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one potential model for an alternative currency system referenced in the content?

<p>A deal paying for imports in Chinese renminbi. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does an adjustable peg require for alignment changes?

<p>Official sanction by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why might the emergence of a rival to the dollar system be difficult?

<p>The current economic slowdown and capital outflow in China. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one major impact of a central bank's decision not to intervene in a free floating exchange rate?

<p>Market forces solely dictate the currency's value at all times. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a currency board system, what must the amount of total domestic currency in circulation equal?

<p>The corresponding foreign currency reserves. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT a feature of a managed floating exchange rate?

<p>Unrestricted movement of capital across borders. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What key factor can lead to the need for fixed exchange rate realignment?

<p>Discrepancies between official rates and economic fundamentals. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What could potentially happen to the Chinese economy, as mentioned in the content?

<p>It might face capital outflow and economic instability. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the suggested role of foreign exchange reserves in a managed floating system?

<p>To intervene when currency values exceed limits. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How can interest rates influence managed floating exchange rates?

<p>They can be used as a tool to adjust currency values indirectly. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a potential downside of a fixed exchange rate system?

<p>It can require massive reserves to maintain the peg. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which country's central bank governor has the job of maintaining the currency's exchange rate against the Euro?

<p>Denmark (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What economic stability aspect is generally prioritized in a managed floating system?

<p>Controlling inflation while allowing for currency value adjustments. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does it mean if a currency is pegged in a fixed exchange rate system?

<p>It is anchored to a specific currency or currency basket. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What primarily underpins the global dominance of the dollar?

<p>Abundant liquidity and universal acceptance (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does a rising dollar impact dollar-denominated debts globally?

<p>It increases the debt service charges. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What effect does a 1 percent rise in the dollar typically have on global trade?

<p>It decreases global trade by around 0.7 percent. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What risk do weaker economies face during a tightening cycle by the Fed?

<p>Access to vital imports may be restricted (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What percentage of low-income borrowers are estimated to be at risk of debt distress?

<p>60 percent (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What consequence arises from emerging-market currencies devaluing against the dollar?

<p>Heightened inflationary pressure due to increased import costs (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why might the global financial system avoid a comprehensive crisis despite the dollar's fragility?

<p>Thanks to better protective measures developed since the 1990s (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What can often trigger a crisis in countries heavily reliant on dollar borrowing?

<p>Exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What type of borrowing method has become more common among low-income countries since the 2000s?

<p>Variable interest rate borrowing (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What major economic factor contributed to the crises faced by Sri Lanka and Argentina?

<p>Surging inflation and rising commodity prices (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a significant consequence of rising interest rates set by the Fed?

<p>Strained access to credit for weaker economies (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which aspect of the dollar system remains extremely fragile?

<p>Reliance on dollar-denominated debt without protections (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What has driven economies to synchronize their monetary policies since 2021?

<p>The Fed's rate increases (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the network of dollar-based financial systems react to shocks?

<p>It adapts and has developed coping strategies. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a key benefit of borrowing from foreign lenders in local currency for countries experiencing a crisis?

<p>It ensures that lenders share part of the risk. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why should foreign currency borrowing be limited to private and corporate entities rather than households or governments?

<p>Households are more vulnerable to fluctuations in currency value. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What impact does the health of the U.S. economy have on the global dollar system?

<p>A robust economy can lead to higher interest rates, affecting global finances. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the Big Mac index illustrate in terms of currency valuation?

<p>It reflects purchasing-power parity by comparing burger prices across countries. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What consequence can arise when a currency is significantly undervalued?

<p>Investors may face losses if they bet on it appreciating. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was a significant finding regarding the performance of investments based on the Big Mac index over a period of two years?

<p>Ten out of fifteen investments would have lost money. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why did the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union agree to provide financial support to South Africa?

<p>For energy transition strategies and to alleviate pressures from Eskom's debts. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What challenge might arise for governments regarding foreign-currency debts held by corporations?

<p>They might need to bail out companies to maintain economic stability. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the term 'heads I win, tails you lose' imply in the context of the dollar system?

<p>When the U.S. economy thrives, it benefits the dollar system. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What has been a recent trend in the behavior of Hong Kong's monetary officials related to its currency?

<p>They have defended the currency against excessive strengthening. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the Big Mac index suggest about the Hong Kong dollar's valuation in recent months?

<p>It is undervalued and does not need to fall further. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What strategy did economists suggest regarding the timing for selling an undervalued currency based on the Big Mac index?

<p>Wait as modest deviations from fair value halve every one to three years. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the liquidity swap system affect the dollar-centered global finance?

<p>It helps stabilize currencies among major economies during crises. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What fundamental principle underlies the concept of purchasing-power parity illustrated by the Big Mac index?

<p>The cost of a standard good should reflect currency valuation. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Money definition

Generally accepted medium of exchange, a store of value that enables trading without barter; can be coins, notes, or digital records.

Commodity Money

Money with intrinsic value, like gold or silver coins, or other items of agreed value.

Token Money

Money without inherent value, such as coins exchangeable for gold or silver.

Fiat Money

Money issued by a government, not backed by a commodity like gold, but by government decree.

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Potosi's Impact

Potosi silver influx significantly changed world economies, boosting Spanish power and fostering European capitalism.

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Capitalism's Birthplace

Potosi, due to its immense silver production, is considered the birthplace of modern capitalism.

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Global Trade Changes

The influx of silver from the Americas altered global trade patterns, especially with China.

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Colonial Expansion

The influx of silver spurred other European powers to seek colonial opportunities abroad.

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Central bank

An institution that manages a country's monetary system, sets interest rates, and serves as the lender of last resort for other banks.

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Bank of England

The first central bank, established in 1694, providing loans to the government and issuing banknotes.

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Gold Standard

A monetary system where the value of currency is directly linked to gold reserves, meaning a country can only issue a limited amount of currency based on its gold holdings.

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Federal Reserve (Fed)

The central bank of the United States, established in 1913 to manage the economy, control inflation, and ensure stability.

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Crisis of 1907

A financial panic triggered by bank runs and lack of liquidity, highlighted the need for a central bank to regulate the US banking system.

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JP Morgan

A powerful banker who intervened in the 1907 crisis, providing funds to banks and demonstrating the need for a central bank.

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Lender of Last Resort

A role played by central banks, providing emergency loans to banks facing liquidity shortages, preventing systemic financial collapse.

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Bank of Canada

The central bank of Canada, established in 1935 to manage the country's monetary system and ensure economic stability.

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Fiat System

A monetary system where the value of currency is not backed by a commodity like gold but by government decree.

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Chartered Bank

A commercial bank licensed by the government to accept deposits, lend money and provide financial services.

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Branch Banking System

A banking system where larger, established banks operate a network of branches across various locations.

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Bank of Montreal

The first Canadian bank, established in 1817, playing a significant role in the country's economic development.

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Home Bank Failure (1923)

A major bank failure that led to stronger regulations for Canadian banks, highlighting the need for financial stability.

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Porter Commission (1964)

A Royal Commission that recommended reforms to the Canadian banking system, leading to a more open and competitive environment.

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Differentiated Integration

A situation where some members of a group, like the EU, participate in a common policy (like the euro) while others don't.

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Bretton Woods System

A post-WWII agreement that set fixed exchange rates between the US dollar and other Western currencies, with the dollar tied to gold.

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How did the Bretton Woods System work?

The US dollar was tied to gold, and other currencies were tied to the dollar, creating a predictable exchange rate system.

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Werner Plan

A plan proposed in 1969 to create a European economic and monetary union, aiming to replace national currencies with a common European currency.

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Conditions for Monetary Union

The Werner Plan required strong fiscal coordination, removal of capital controls, and fixed exchange rates between European currencies.

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'Economist' vs. 'Monetarist'

Two views on achieving monetary union: 'Economists' favored strict economic convergence first, while 'Monetarists' believed monetary integration would lead to convergence.

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Currency Snake

A temporary system in 1972 where European currencies fluctuated within a narrow band, an attempt to stabilise exchange rates after the collapse of Bretton Woods.

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Why did the Currency Snake Fail?

The 1973 oil crisis and uncoordinated responses from member states resulted in currency depreciation and the failure of the 'currency snake'.

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European Monetary System (EMS)

A system created in 1978, using a virtual currency (ECU) and fixed but adjustable exchange rates, aiming to stabilise European currencies.

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ECU (European Currency Unit)

A virtual currency created in 1978 as part of the EMS, serving as a common unit of account but not issued as coins or banknotes.

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Exchange Rate Mechanism

A system within the EMS where currencies fluctuated within a band around a central rate, which could be adjusted periodically with agreement.

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Delors Report

A report in 1989 outlining a three-stage plan for implementing the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in Europe.

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Three Stages of EMU

Stage 1: economic policy coordination, monetary cooperation, free capital movement. Stage 2: transfer of monetary sovereignty, European Central Bank, narrower exchange rate bands. Stage 3: full handover of monetary power, fixed exchange rates, eventual replacement by the euro.

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German Reluctance to EMU

Germany was hesitant to relinquish control over its strong currency, fearing it would lose its economic power and stability.

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Berlin Wall Fall's Impact

The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 influenced Germany's role in the EU, positioning it as a key player in the push for monetary union.

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Stage One of the Euro

Starting in 1990, this stage focused on preparations for the monetary union, involving discussions and negotiations.

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Maastricht Treaty's Goal

Signed in 1992, the treaty established the European Union and aimed for a common monetary policy with the euro.

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Convergence Criteria

These requirements, set by the Maastricht Treaty, were meant to ensure economic stability among countries before adopting the euro.

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Why the UK Opted Out

The UK chose not to join the eurozone, negotiating to stay outside the monetary union.

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Danish Referendum's Impact

The Danish rejection of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 put the euro project in jeopardy.

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Currency Speculation's Effect

Speculation on the Italian lira and British pound forced their currencies to leave the European Monetary System.

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Euro's Introduction

The euro was formally introduced as a virtual single currency in 1999, with exchange rates fixed.

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Euro's Physical Debut

Euro coins and banknotes began circulating on January 1, 2002, marking its physical presence.

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Euro's Aspiration

When the euro was launched, it aimed to challenge the dollar's dominance as a global reserve currency.

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Euro's International Role

The euro is used beyond the 19 countries that officially use it, with some countries linking their currencies to it.

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Benefits of International Currency

Having a currency widely accepted internationally helps businesses avoid exchange rate fluctuations and governments borrow money cheaply.

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Euro's Reserve Share

While the euro is widely used, it holds about 20% of central bank reserves compared to the dollar's 60%, signifying less international prominence.

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Euro's Rise?

The euro aims to reduce the dollar's dominance in international finance, but faces challenges.

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Trump's Impact

Trump's protectionist policies made the dollar less reliable, boosting the euro's potential.

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Strategic Autonomy

Europe wants to be less reliant on the dollar for its economic and political decisions.

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Dollar's Weapon

America uses the dollar's power to enforce its rules even on other countries.

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Euro's Crisis Growth

The euro's credibility increased after effectively managing the pandemic crisis.

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NGEU Scheme

EU's bond program to support member states, making the euro a safer investment.

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Euro's Safe Asset

The NGEU scheme provides a risk-free way for investors to hold euro-denominated bonds.

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Euro's Limitations

The euro lacks certain features of a fully integrated financial union, like risk-sharing.

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Diversification Benefit

Using the euro alongside the dollar reduces the risk of relying solely on the dollar.

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Digital Currency Impact

Digital currencies, like those issued by central banks, could change the world's monetary landscape.

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Yuan's Ambitions

China's yuan also aims for global prominence, but it's hampered by limitations.

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Multi-Currency World

A future with multiple currencies sharing reserve status may be possible.

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Exorbitant Privilege

The US's special advantage from the dollar's global dominance.

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Taper Tantrum

Disruptions caused by US monetary policy changes that impact global markets.

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Network Effects

The dollar's dominance is reinforced by its widespread use in global trade and finance.

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Floating Exchange Rate

The currency's value is entirely determined by market forces (supply and demand) with no central bank intervention.

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Managed Floating

The central bank allows the currency to float daily, but intervenes occasionally to influence the exchange rate.

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Semi-Fixed Currency (Crawling Peg)

The exchange rate is fixed but adjusted gradually over time, often based on inflation or other economic indicators.

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Fully Fixed (Hard Peg)

The central bank firmly fixes the currency's value to another currency or a basket of currencies.

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Currency Board System

A specific type of fixed exchange rate where the central bank holds sufficient foreign exchange reserves to fully back its currency.

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Appreciation

When a currency increases in value compared to other currencies.

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Depreciation

When a currency decreases in value compared to other currencies.

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Intervention (Central Bank)

When a central bank buys or sells its currency in the foreign exchange market to influence the exchange rate.

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Target (Exchange Rate)

A specific exchange rate level that a central bank aims to achieve or maintain.

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Capital Controls

Government restrictions on the movement (inflows and outflows) of money across international borders.

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Foreign Exchange Reserves

A central bank's holdings of foreign currencies or other assets used for intervention in FX markets.

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Unofficial Trading

Currency transactions happening outside the officially fixed exchange rate, often when the official rate doesn't reflect market realities.

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Devaluation

A deliberate official decrease in the value of a currency against other currencies.

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Revaluation

A deliberate official increase in the value of a currency against other currencies.

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Shadow Currency Markets

Informal markets where currencies are traded at rates different from the official rate.

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Fixed Exchange Rate

A currency's value is fixed to another currency at a predetermined rate, maintained by the central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market.

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Pegged Currency

A currency's value is fixed to another currency, like the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar.

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How does a Currency Board System work?

The central bank issues domestic currency only when there are corresponding foreign currency reserves, ensuring full convertibility and limiting its ability to print money.

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Dollar Power

The influence the US dollar holds in the global economy, impacting exchange rates, financial sanctions, and global trade.

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Financial Sanctions

Restrictions imposed by one country on another's financial institutions and transactions, often used as a political tool.

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Alternative Currency System

A system where other currencies, like the Chinese renminbi, become more prominent in international trade and finance.

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Dim Sum Bond Market

A market in Hong Kong where issuers from around the world issue offshore renminbi debt, offering an alternative to the US dollar market.

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Federal Reserve Policy Tightening

The US central bank raising interest rates to control inflation, which can affect global exchange rates and financial markets.

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PPP Deviations

Differences between the actual exchange rate and the rate predicted by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), where identical goods should cost the same in different countries after exchange rate adjustment.

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Big Mac Index

A simple measure of currency valuation, comparing the price of a Big Mac in different countries to estimate if a currency is overvalued or undervalued.

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Adjusted Big Mac Index

An adjusted version of the Big Mac Index that considers a country's GDP per capita, providing a more accurate estimate of currency valuation.

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PPP's Long-Term Power

While PPP is not a reliable short-term predictor, it is believed to play a role in anchoring exchange rates over the long term.

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LSE's MTS Sale

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) is selling MTS, a subsidiary providing clearing services, with Euronext being the most likely buyer.

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Clearing House's Role

A clearing house acts as a central counterparty in financial transactions, ensuring the completion of trades and reducing risk for participants.

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Euronext's Advantage

Euronext's partnership with the Italian government, with CDP owning 8% of Borsa, gives it a strong advantage in the MTS acquisition.

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Golden Power Law

This law allows the Italian government to intervene in deals concerning strategically important sectors, like financial infrastructure.

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Populist Influence

Populist political movements in Italy are pushing for Borsa, the Italian stock exchange, to remain under Italian control.

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Consob's Euroscepticism

Consob, the Italian financial regulator, is headed by a Eurosceptic figure, suggesting potential resistance to foreign acquisitions.

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Dollar's Global Dominance

The US dollar is the primary currency for international trade and finance, due to its abundant liquidity, low cost, and universal acceptance.

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Dollar's Military Backing

The global dominance of the US dollar is partly due to the US's powerful military, ensuring its debt's status in the world economy.

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Dollar's Impact on Interest Rates

A sudden increase in US interest rates, which strengthens the dollar, can have a significant impact on global credit markets and commercial transactions.

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Rising Dollar's Effects

A stronger dollar makes US exports less competitive, increases debt service costs for those borrowing in dollars, and can harm global trade.

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Dollar's Ubiquity's Impact

The dollar's dominance means that a rise in its value has a disproportionate effect on global markets compared to the fall of other currencies.

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Dollar Rise and Inflation

A rising dollar can cause inflation in countries with currencies that fall in value, forcing them to raise interest rates to match.

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Synchronized Tightening

Central banks around the world are simultaneously raising interest rates due to the US's rate increases and inflation pressures, causing a global tightening of credit conditions.

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Dollar-Based System's Risk

Tightening credit conditions in the dollar-based system can cut off weaker economies from essential imports and access to credit, potentially leading to crises.

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Debt Crisis Potential

The current economic environment, with rising interest rates and a strong dollar, poses risks to low-income countries already burdened with debt, potentially leading to a debt crisis.

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Variable Interest Rate Debt

Many low-income countries have borrowed at variable interest rates, which are good during low rates but become dangerous when rates rise, increasing their debt burden.

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Dollar System's Resilience

Despite the potential for a debt crisis, the dollar-based system has evolved to manage these risks. Strong economies are better protected, while weakened economies struggle.

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Dollar System's Dependence

Countries heavily reliant on the dollar, especially those with dollar-pegged currencies or excessive dollar borrowing, are vulnerable to its fluctuations.

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Moderating Dollar Dependence

Since the 1990s, various tools have been developed to manage the risks associated with the dollar-based system, reducing dependency on the dollar and managing risks.

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Dollar System's Fragility

While the dollar system has become more resilient, it remains fragile due to its reliance on a single currency and the interconnected nature of global finance.

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Managing Global Finance

Countries and businesses are increasingly employing strategies to manage their exposure to the dollar's fluctuations, including hedging, diversifying, and using local currencies.

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Foreign Currency Borrowing Risk

When a country borrows money in a currency other than its own, it risks devaluation if the foreign currency strengthens. Foreign investors might sell their stakes, driving down the value of the local currency.

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The Big Mac Index

A tongue-in-cheek way to measure the buying power of currencies by comparing the price of a Big Mac in different countries. It's based on the concept of purchasing power parity (PPP).

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Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

The theory that exchange rates between two currencies should be adjusted to reflect the actual price of goods and services in each country.

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Currency Speculation

Investors taking advantage of currency fluctuations by buying and selling currencies to profit from price differences. Sometimes, speculation can drive currency values up or down.

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De-Risking in Global Finance

Public authorities like central banks provide support to the global financial system, reducing the risk of major disruptions, often subtly and behind the scenes.

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'Heads I Win, Tails You Lose' System

A system where the US dollar benefits from both strong economic growth and situations where the US economy falters. This creates an uneven playing field for other countries.

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Wall Street Consensus

The dominance of investment banks, fund managers, and their borrowers in shaping and maintaining the US dollar-based global financial system.

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Liquidity Swap Lines

Arrangements between the US Federal Reserve and major central banks around the world, where they can borrow dollars from each other in emergencies.

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Tight US Monetary Policy

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to control inflation, it can impact the global economy, even beyond the US.

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Soft Landing Scenario

A situation where the US economy slows down slightly to control inflation, but avoids a recession.

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Hong Kong Dollar Peg

The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar, meaning its value fluctuates in a tight range relative to the US currency.

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Under-Valued Currency

A currency that, according to PPP, is priced lower than it should be, reflecting a potential for appreciation.

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Currency Speculation Outcomes

Currency speculation doesn't always guarantee profit. Investing in undervalued currencies may not always lead to gains, as exchange rates can be unpredictable.

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Modest Deviations from Fair Value

When currencies are slightly undervalued or overvalued, they typically revert back to their fair value over time, but this process can take a few years.

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Study Notes

Money and its Forms

  • Money is any generally accepted medium of exchange, enabling trade without barter. It's also a store of value
  • Coins have value from metal content (e.g., gold) or as representative tokens (e.g., 25c). Paper money represents value. Digital currency is exchanged as information. All rely on shared consensus of value.
  • Commodity money includes gold, silver, shells, or grain. Token money can be exchanged for a pre-determined commodity value (e.g., the gold standard). Fiat money is issued by a government, not backed by a commodity.

Potosi and the Impact of Silver

  • Potosi, in Bolivia, was a significant source of silver during Spanish colonial rule. Spanish enslaved local populations to mine and process the silver.
  • The influx of silver drastically changed global economies, fueling European capitalism and trade with other areas, especially China.
  • Potosi's wealth did not benefit the local people. The region is now a leading lithium producer.

Banks and Central Banks

  • Banks are categorized as commercial or central.
  • The Bank of England, established in 1694, was a model for other central banks. It initially raised money for the government to finance the Navy.
  • Central banks like the Federal Reserve (US, created in 1913) aim to maximize employment, stable prices, and moderate interest rates.
  • They regulate banks, act as lenders of last resort, and set interest rates.
  • The Bank of Canada was established in 1935, initially controlled by private interests but later transferred to federal government control.
  • Chartered banks (e.g., Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia) are essential to capitalistic economies. They take deposits and make loans, primarily mortgages. Canadian Banking is heavily regulated, contrasting with the US approach.

The Euro

  • The euro, while a common EU policy, isn't adopted by all members (differentiated integration).
  • All EU members are legally obligated to adopt the euro except Denmark, which has an opt-out.
  • The history of the euro traces back to the Treaty of Rome and the Bretton Woods arrangement.
  • The Werner report proposed a gradual transition to a common currency, requiring fiscal and budgetary policy coordination, capital controls removal, and fixed exchange rates.
  • The 1992 Maastricht Treaty established a European Monetary Union.
  • The euro's international role is still developing, challenged by the U.S. dollar's dominance. The establishment of the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU) bond issuance could improve the euro's position.

Currency Systems

  • Currency systems include free floating, managed floating, semi-fixed (crawling peg), fully fixed (hard peg), and currency board systems.
  • Each system has different mechanisms for responding to domestic and global market forces.
  • The dollar's position as a global reserve currency remains strong, especially due to the U.S. financial and military power.
  • The dollar system's strength is tied to the U.S. economy. Crisis responses and stability affect global economic conditions.

The Big Mac Index

  • The Big Mac index assesses currency value using purchasing power parity (PPP). It compares the cost of a Big Mac in different countries.
  • Deviations from PPP tend to narrow over time. While a simplified tool, it isn't a perfect predictor for currency speculation. Adjustments considering GDP per capita can be more accurate than a simple price comparison.

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