Podcast
Questions and Answers
What is the average price of oil projected for 2024?
What is the average price of oil projected for 2024?
Which government bond yield is projected to be average for the United States in 2024?
Which government bond yield is projected to be average for the United States in 2024?
What does a basis point refer to in financial terms?
What does a basis point refer to in financial terms?
How is the trend of real effective exchange rates assumed to behave during the specified period?
How is the trend of real effective exchange rates assumed to behave during the specified period?
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Which currency’s bond yield is projected to be at 0.0 percent in 2024?
Which currency’s bond yield is projected to be at 0.0 percent in 2024?
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In which year is the average three-month government bond yield for the euro area projected to be 2.6 percent?
In which year is the average three-month government bond yield for the euro area projected to be 2.6 percent?
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What is the value of the projected average three-month government bond yield for Japan in 2025?
What is the value of the projected average three-month government bond yield for Japan in 2025?
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How are exceptional reporting periods denoted for national accounts and government finance data?
How are exceptional reporting periods denoted for national accounts and government finance data?
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What primarily reflects the growth in employment and incomes despite structural frictions?
What primarily reflects the growth in employment and incomes despite structural frictions?
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What is a potential consequence of dimmer growth prospects in major emerging markets?
What is a potential consequence of dimmer growth prospects in major emerging markets?
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What is one of the risks to the global economic outlook mentioned?
What is one of the risks to the global economic outlook mentioned?
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How might high interest rates affect households with fixed-rate mortgages?
How might high interest rates affect households with fixed-rate mortgages?
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What is the revised forecast for global growth in 2024?
What is the revised forecast for global growth in 2024?
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What effect could a divergence in disinflation speeds among economies have?
What effect could a divergence in disinflation speeds among economies have?
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What is expected to happen to global headline inflation from 2023 to 2024?
What is expected to happen to global headline inflation from 2023 to 2024?
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What does the projected global growth rate of 3.2 percent in 2023 suggest?
What does the projected global growth rate of 3.2 percent in 2023 suggest?
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What could be a direct result of high government debt levels according to the economic outlook?
What could be a direct result of high government debt levels according to the economic outlook?
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Which factor is noted as a reason for the low pace of expansion in many economies?
Which factor is noted as a reason for the low pace of expansion in many economies?
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What could potentially raise economic activity in the short term according to the forecast?
What could potentially raise economic activity in the short term according to the forecast?
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What might occur in China without a comprehensive response to the property sector crisis?
What might occur in China without a comprehensive response to the property sector crisis?
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What is the primary priority for central banks as the global economy approaches a soft landing?
What is the primary priority for central banks as the global economy approaches a soft landing?
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What long-term effect is contributing to the low pace of economic growth?
What long-term effect is contributing to the low pace of economic growth?
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What is anticipated regarding advanced economies in relation to inflation targets?
What is anticipated regarding advanced economies in relation to inflation targets?
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Which factor could lead to a quicker return of inflation targets for advanced economies?
Which factor could lead to a quicker return of inflation targets for advanced economies?
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What percentage of world GDP does the sample of 57 economies account for in 2023?
What percentage of world GDP does the sample of 57 economies account for in 2023?
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How many economies are included in the median sample plotted in Panel 3?
How many economies are included in the median sample plotted in Panel 3?
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What is the range represented by the vertical axes in the panels?
What is the range represented by the vertical axes in the panels?
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What method is used for the economic data in the sample?
What method is used for the economic data in the sample?
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What does IMF stand for in the context of economic calculations?
What does IMF stand for in the context of economic calculations?
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What percentile range is depicted by the bands across economies in the panels?
What percentile range is depicted by the bands across economies in the panels?
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Which of the following regions is NOT mentioned in the provided content?
Which of the following regions is NOT mentioned in the provided content?
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What is the purpose of plotting the median sample of economies in the panels?
What is the purpose of plotting the median sample of economies in the panels?
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What was the index value for energy prices in 2016?
What was the index value for energy prices in 2016?
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Which group is indicated as 'AEs' in the forecast data?
Which group is indicated as 'AEs' in the forecast data?
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What does 'EMDEs' stand for in the context of the energy forecasts?
What does 'EMDEs' stand for in the context of the energy forecasts?
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What does the term 'long term' refer to in the inflation expectations data?
What does the term 'long term' refer to in the inflation expectations data?
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In which year was the actual data showing approximately 95 million barrels a day for world oil supply?
In which year was the actual data showing approximately 95 million barrels a day for world oil supply?
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What does the index value of 300 represent in the context of energy prices?
What does the index value of 300 represent in the context of energy prices?
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What notable event ties into the forecasting mentioned for October 2022?
What notable event ties into the forecasting mentioned for October 2022?
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What does the phrase 'weighted sum of forecasts' imply about the calculations mentioned?
What does the phrase 'weighted sum of forecasts' imply about the calculations mentioned?
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Study Notes
Global Economic Outlook
- Global growth is projected to remain at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025.
- The forecast for 2024 has been revised upwards, by 0.1% since the January 2024 WEO update, and 0.3% since the October 2023 WEO.
- The latest global growth projection for five years from now is 3.1%, the lowest in decades.
- Global headline inflation is expected to decline from an annual average of 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.
- Advanced economies are anticipated to reach their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.
- The global economy is projected to experience a soft landing.
Drivers of Global Growth
- Growth in employment and incomes has remained steady, driven by government spending, household consumption and a labor force expansion.
- Households in major advanced economies have drawn on substantial savings accumulated during the pandemic, contributing to economic resilience.
- Changes in mortgage and housing markets have moderated the impact of policy rate hikes.
- A tightening of fiscal policies with higher taxes and lower government spending is anticipated to weigh on growth.
Risks To The Global Outlook
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Downside risks:
- New price spikes from geopolitical tensions could raise interest rate expectations, reduce asset prices, and put financial sectors under pressure.
- A divergence in disinflation speeds among major economies could cause currency movements and exert pressure on financial sectors.
- High interest rates could have greater cooling effects than expected, potentially causing financial stress.
- Without a comprehensive response to the troubled property sector in China, growth could falter, impacting trading partners.
- A disruptive shift to tax hikes and spending cuts in economies with high government debt could weaken activity, erode confidence, and hinder reform efforts.
- Geoeconomic fragmentation could intensify, with higher barriers to the flow of goods, capital, and people leading to a supply-side slowdown.
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Upside risks:
- Looser fiscal policy than projected could stimulate economic activity in the short term, but may require more costly policy adjustments later.
- Inflation could fall faster than anticipated due to increased labor force participation, enabling central banks to accelerate easing plans.
- Artificial intelligence and stronger-than-expected structural reforms could boost productivity.
Policy Priorities
- Central banks: Ensure inflation touches down smoothly by avoiding premature easing or delaying action too long.
- Fiscal policy: Focus on reducing government debt, with a balanced approach to tax hikes and spending cuts while supporting efforts to mitigate climate change risks.
- Structural policies: Implement reforms to enhance productivity and competitiveness.
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Description
Explore the global economic forecast for 2024 and 2025, highlighting growth projections and inflation trends. Understand the drivers behind steady growth, including government spending and household consumption. This quiz offers insights into advanced economies versus emerging markets and their respective economic challenges.
