Decision Making Process Overview

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Questions and Answers

What is the best definition for the word satisfice?

  • requires a perfect solution
  • accepts a less than perfect solution (correct)
  • not sufficient
  • very satisfying

Herbert Simon found that most people satisficed because they had limited ability to ________.

  • think independently
  • deal with difficult situations
  • grasp present conditions and anticipate future conditions (correct)
  • be truthful and honest in situations that deal with other people

A person who satisfices fails to ________.

  • make any kind of decision
  • accept the truth of a situation
  • understand his or her position
  • maximize his or her decision (correct)

Sticking to a decision despite evidence that it is a mistake is called ________.

<p>escalation of commitment (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which model of decision making takes advantage of unconscious reasoning?

<p>intuitive (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a major advantage of intuitive decision making compared to fully rational decision making?

<p>speed (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Approximately what percentage of managers typically use intuitive decision making rather than formal analysis to make decisions?

<p>75% (B), almost 50% (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which option is LEAST likely to be a decision criterion for a high-tech bicycle buyer focused on performance?

<p>warranty (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What defines a heuristic in decision making?

<p>A simplistic and quick rule of thumb (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What can be a consequence of using heuristics instead of a systematic decision-making process?

<p>Increased likelihood of errors and biases (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why do managers often opt for heuristics in decision making?

<p>They appear to reduce complexity and save time. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which factor is NOT typically included in a bicycle buyer's evaluation of different models?

<p>the color of the bicycle (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the last step Sondra should take in the decision-making process?

<p>Evaluate the decision's effectiveness (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following correctly defines the nature of a problem in decision making?

<p>A problem is a discrepancy between current and desired states (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does a decision criterion refer to in the decision-making process?

<p>It outlines factors that are crucial for making a decision (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Emotions and feelings ________ decision making.

<p>can improve (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How can heuristics impact the decision-making process?

<p>They can simplify complex decisions but may lead to errors (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which statement about confirmation bias is accurate?

<p>It refers to disregarding new evidence that contradicts existing beliefs (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Is it realistic for today's managers to be completely rational?

<p>No, that is an unrealistic goal (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

An assumption of bounded rationality indicates that managers can analyze all relevant information about all alternatives for a situation.

<p>False, it is not realistic (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the assumption made regarding a rational decision maker?

<p>They strive for objectivity and logical reasoning (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes structured problems?

<p>clear and straightforward (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In decision-making, what does it mean for a decision maker to maximize value?

<p>To select options that provide the highest possible benefits (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Unstructured problems are defined as ________.

<p>situations in which all options are not known (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does identifying the wrong problem entail for a manager in a decision-making scenario?

<p>It is equally as harmful as failing to solve the right problem (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which one of the following is an example of a structured problem?

<p>deciding shipping options for a vacuum cleaner (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Structured problems typically have ________ while unstructured problems typically have ________.

<p>only one solution; many solutions (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Programmed decisions are best suited for solving ________.

<p>routine and repetitive problems (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT a factor that can increase the probability of groupthink?

<p>Group leaders solicit ideas from all group members without passing judgment on their ideas. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which option is NOT a way to minimize groupthink?

<p>Foster open discussion. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What technique is specifically designed to generate creative ideas in a group?

<p>Brainstorming (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT allowed in a brainstorming session?

<p>Criticism or dismissal of poor ideas (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which group technique promotes both group interaction and independent decision-making?

<p>Nominal group technique (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following describes a blend of the nominal group technique with computer technology?

<p>Electronic meeting (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a key advantage of videoconferencing for group decision making?

<p>Savings on travel and time (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a common drawback of group decision making?

<p>Increase in decision legitimacy (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Groups tend to be more efficient and less effective than individual decision making.

<p>False (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is a major advantage of electronic meetings?

<p>Anonymity (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Mid-level managers from high power distance countries are ________ than those from low power distance countries.

<p>Less likely to take risks (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Mid-level managers in low uncertainty avoidance countries are ________ than those in high uncertainty avoidance countries.

<p>Less risk-averse (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Individualistic countries like the United States tend to have ________ than group-oriented countries like Japan.

<p>Less conformity and more cooperation (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The use of ringisei in Japanese organizations is indicative of which cultural value?

<p>Consensus-seeking (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When tackling international management styles, managers must be ________.

<p>Flexible (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does individual creativity require according to one well-accepted model?

<p>Expertise (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Satisficing

Accepting a solution that is good enough, rather than the optimal solution.

Limited ability to grasp present conditions and anticipate future conditions

A reason why people satisficing in decision-making.

Escalation of commitment

Sticking to a bad decision, even when evidence suggests it's wrong.

Escalation of commitment reason

Avoiding admitting an earlier decision was flawed.

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Intuitive decision making

Decision-making based on unconscious reasoning and feelings.

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Intuitive decision making advantage

Speed and swiftness compared to a rational decision-making process.

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Typical use of intuitive decision making by managers

About 75% of managers use intuition rather than thorough analysis for decisions.

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Intuitive decision making complement

Combining intuition with other decision-making approaches.

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Intuition in decision-making-ethics and values

Intuition guides ethical decision-making.

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Intuition in decision-making - experience

Leveraging past experiences in making decisions.

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Intuition in decision-making - (knowledge, skills, training)

Drawing on knowledge, skills, and training to make decisions.

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Decision Criteria

Features or factors used to evaluate and compare different options during a decision-making process.

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Analysis of Alternatives

A step in decision-making where different options are examined and compared.

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Evaluation of Decision Effectiveness

Assessing the success of a chosen decision after its implementation.

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Selection of an Alternative

Choosing the best option from a set of available decisions.

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Implementation of an Alternative

Putting the chosen decision into action.

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Decision Criteria (High-Tech Bicycle)

Factors a high-tech bicycle buyer considers, like technical specifications and performance.

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Heuristic

A mental shortcut or rule of thumb used for making decisions quickly.

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Rational Decision

A decision made that is logical and consistent with the decision maker's goals.

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Objective Criterion

A measurable factor used for evaluating alternatives without personal bias, unlike subjective factors.

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Weighted Criteria

Criteria that are assigned varying degrees of importance in the decision-making process.

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Errors and Biases

The potential for mistakes and distorted judgments when using heuristics instead of a comprehensive decision-making process.

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Heuristics in Decision Making

Using mental shortcuts to simplify decision-making, often leading to faster choices.

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Emotions' effect on decision-making

Emotions and feelings can influence decision-making, sometimes positively, and sometimes negatively.

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Rational decision vs. best solution

A rational decision may not always lead to the best or most successful solution to a problem.

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Bounded rationality

The idea that managers' ability to make rational decisions is limited by constraints.

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Satisfice

To choose a solution that is satisfactory, not necessarily the best, but adequate.

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Intuitive decision making

Decision-making based on instinct, experience, and gut feelings, often used for unstructured problems.

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Escalation of commitment

Continuing a failing course of action despite evidence of its poor performance. 'Throwing good money after bad'.

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Structured problems

Clear, straightforward problems with readily available data and solutions.

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Unstructured problems

Complex, ambiguous problems with limited information and multiple potential solutions.

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Programmed decisions

Routine decisions made quickly using established procedures or rules.

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Decision-Making Process Last Step

Evaluating the decision's effectiveness, not implementing the alternative.

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Problem Definition

Difference between current state and desired state.

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Decision Criterion

Factors relevant to a decision.

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Problem Identification

Comparing current state to a standard.

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Decision Criteria Importance

Not all criteria have equal weight.

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Identifying Wrong Problem

Equal failure as solving right, yet failing to complete solution.

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Decision-Making Process Final Step

Implementing the chosen alternative.

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Heuristic

Simplifying decision-making process.

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Heuristics and Errors

Heuristics can lead to decision-making errors.

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Confirmation Bias

Seeking information that confirms existing beliefs.

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Availability Bias

Judging likelihood based on ease of recall.

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Rational Decision-Making Models

Rational, bounded rational, and intuitive.

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Rational Decision Maker

Makes objective and logical choices.

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Maximize Value

Choosing the best option to get the most positive effect.

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Groupthink

A phenomenon where a group's desire for harmony and consensus overrides critical evaluation of different ideas and solutions.

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Groupthink Factors

Influential members dominating discussions, group leaders prioritizing consensus, lack of impartial judgment.

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Minimizing Groupthink

Strategies to avoid groupthink, including having an impartial leader, fostering open discussion, and encouraging diverse perspectives.

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Brainstorming

A group technique used to generate creative ideas, encouraging many alternatives without initial evaluation of ideas.

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Brainstorming Restrictions

During brainstorming sessions, criticism and evaluation of ideas are not allowed.

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Nominal Group Technique

A group technique for problem-solving that combines independent work and group discussion. This promotes individual idea generation and combines ideas without initial evaluation or social pressure.

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Electronic Meetings

A process that uses technology for group discussion, decision making. Sometimes includes a mixture of independent input or blended group interactive sessions.

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Video Conferencing Advantages

Video conferencing offers ways to reduce travel time and costs while allowing the expression of opinions in a relatively anonymous setting.

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Group Decision Advantages

Group decisions can provide more comprehensive information and increase perceived legitimacy of solutions.

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Group Decision Disadvantages

A drawback of group decision making is groupthink, a tendency towards poor decisions that prioritize consensus and avoid critical thinking.

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Group decision making efficiency

Groups are generally less efficient than individual decision-making. They can be slower due to the need for consensus and discussions.

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Electronic meetings advantages

Anonymity and honesty are common advantages of using technology for meetings. Group members may feel safer to express their true opinions.

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Power Distance & Risky Decisions (Mid-Level Managers)

In high power distance cultures, mid-level managers are less likely to take risks or disagree with their leaders, whereas managers in low power distance cultures are more likely to take risks and challenge decisions.

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Uncertainty Avoidance and Risky Decisions (Mid-Level Managers)

Managers in low uncertainty avoidance cultures are more likely to make risky decisions, Managers in high uncertainty avoidance cultures, are more risk averse.

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Individualistic vs. Group-Oriented Cultures (Conformity)

Individualistic cultures (like the US) generally exhibit less conformity than group-oriented cultures (like Japan).

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Ringisei in Japanese organizations

Ringisei is a Japanese management style emphasizing group decision making and consensus-seeking.

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French management style

French management is generally characterized by a rule-following and autocratic approach.

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International management flexibility

Interacting with international organizations requires being flexible and adaptable to understand and accommodate various management styles from different cultures.

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Creativity and problem-solving

Creativity can help individuals find unique and better solutions to everyday problems.

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Creativity levels: Men vs. Women.

Research suggested that most men and women exhibit similar levels of creativity.

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Individual Creativity: Expertise

A strong understanding of a subject is crucial for individual creativity—knowledge is power.

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Study Notes

Decision Making

  • Decision making begins with identifying a problem.
  • A problem is a discrepancy between what exists and what the decision-maker desires.
  • The decision-making process consists of eight steps.
  • Identifying a problem involves comparing the current state to a standard or goal.
  • A manager can follow the decision-making process correctly but still fail to achieve value if they don't correctly identify the problem.
  • Identifying decision criteria is a step in the decision-making process.

Purchasing New Computers

  • A manager considering new computers is identifying the problem.
  • Identifying decision criteria is a step in the decision-making process.
  • A manager assesses the current computers (analyzing alternatives)

Decision Criteria

  • Decision criteria are the factors that are relevant to a decision.
  • Decision criteria must be fairly objective (e.g., weight)
  • Decision criteria should be important to the decision maker (e.g. personal preference).

Decision-Making Errors & Biases

  • Sunk costs, randomness, and overconfidence are decision errors/biases.
  • Confirmation bias is seeking information that confirms existing beliefs.
  • Escalation of commitment is persisting with a decision despite evidence of its mistakes.
  • Heuristics are mental shortcuts or rules of thumb used in decision-making.

Models of Decision Making

  • Rational model: The ideal decision maker is completely objective and logical
  • Bounded rationality: The decision maker has limitations on their processing power, but they strive for rational decisions despite having limitations
  • Intuitive decision making: Decision is based on experience, feelings, and intuition.

Problem Types and Decision Types

  • Structured problems have clear goals and known options. They use programmed decisions (rules, policies, or procedures).
  • Unstructured problems are fuzzy and lack clear goals or available options. They require nonprogrammed decisions (original solutions, intuition, etc.).

Decision-Making Conditions

  • Certainty: All outcomes are known.
  • Risk: Probabilities of outcomes are known.
  • Uncertainty: Probabilities of outcomes are unclear.

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