Crime Analysis and Intelligence Techniques

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Questions and Answers

Crime analysis provides information on prolific offenders and organized criminal groups.

False

The integration of crime analysis and criminal intelligence can produce a holistic understanding of criminal activity.

True

The structured analytical techniques (SATs) aim to enhance bias and unstructured thinking in intelligence analysis.

False

The 6-3-5 method involves six analysts each proposing three hypotheses in a time limit.

True Signup and view all the answers

Abductive reasoning is the method of evaluating evidence based on a complete set of observations.

False Signup and view all the answers

Crime analysts primarily focus on understanding long-term patterns of criminal behavior.

False Signup and view all the answers

Covert information becomes criminal intelligence when it is analyzed and assessed in context with other known information.

True Signup and view all the answers

Tactical intelligence is exclusively used by top-level managers to make informed decisions about crime reduction strategies.

False Signup and view all the answers

The SARA process consists of Scanning, Analysis, Review, and Assessment.

False Signup and view all the answers

Strategic intelligence aims to provide insight into immediate crime issues and operational objectives.

False Signup and view all the answers

Crime analysts focus on individuals and their activities more than reported crime.

False Signup and view all the answers

Integrated analysis relies on both crime information and criminal intelligence to provide a complete picture of the criminal environment.

True Signup and view all the answers

The integrated model promotes segregation of data between crime analysts and intelligence officers.

False Signup and view all the answers

Legal constraints are a hindrance to integrated analysis between intelligence and crime analysts.

True Signup and view all the answers

Intelligence officers generally have a more secretive role compared to crime analysts within police departments.

True Signup and view all the answers

An integrated analysis model can lead to increased enforcement options by suggesting a broader range of tactics.

True Signup and view all the answers

Different mission statements between intelligence units and crime analysis units facilitate better cooperation.

False Signup and view all the answers

Intelligence-led policing relies solely on historical data to facilitate crime reduction and prevention.

False Signup and view all the answers

The clearance rate is calculated by taking the number of cases cleared divided by the total number of cases and multiplying by 100.

True Signup and view all the answers

Tactical crime analysis is concerned with understanding long-term crime patterns over periods up to a decade.

False Signup and view all the answers

Environmental criminology investigates why crime occurs in specific environments rather than focusing on the individual criminal's motivations.

True Signup and view all the answers

The concept of a crime triangle includes understanding the roles of target/victim, offender, and location in the commission of crime.

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The purpose of a criminal prosecution is solely to obtain a conviction.

False Signup and view all the answers

Co-locating analysts and intelligence officers can enhance collaboration and improve policing strategies.

True Signup and view all the answers

Borchard identified environmental factors contributing to wrongful convictions as primarily due to jury bias.

False Signup and view all the answers

The checklist for action for executives encourages minimal interaction with analysts and intelligence staff.

False Signup and view all the answers

The errors leading to wrongful convictions are exclusively due to police misconduct and not influenced by other factors.

False Signup and view all the answers

Creative forgettery refers to the accurate recall of memories in court testimonies.

False Signup and view all the answers

Tunnel vision in criminal prosecution can arise from a close identification with police and media pressure.

True Signup and view all the answers

The four elements of intelligence-led policing do not concern the management of crime hotspots.

False Signup and view all the answers

Educating officers about community trust has no significant impact on information gathering.

False Signup and view all the answers

Using thematic mapping should be done with high caution to avoid misleading interpretations of data.

True Signup and view all the answers

Match the analytical techniques with their descriptions:

Dumping = Analysts generate numerous hypotheses quickly and compile them into one source Role-playing = Analysts adopt the mindset of a subject of interest for new perspectives 6-3-5 method = Six analysts each propose three hypotheses in five minutes Starbursting = Generating questions to define and plan a project or collection Signup and view all the answers

Match the terms with their definitions:

Abductive reasoning = Selecting the best hypothesis based on incomplete observations Diagnostics = Identifying evidence that supports the likelihood of a hypothesis SLEPNIR = A method used to gauge the threat level of criminal organizations Structured Analytical Techniques (SATs) = Rule-based processes to minimize bias in intelligence analysis Signup and view all the answers

Match the components of SWOT/CLVI analysis with their meanings:

Strengths = Positive attributes of a subject or organization Weaknesses = Negative attributes of a subject or organization Opportunities = External factors that could be leveraged for advantage Intentions = Plans or objectives of a subject or organization Signup and view all the answers

Match the SLEPNIR levels with their threat categorizations:

High (red) = 4 times reverse rank number Medium (orange) = 2 times reverse rank number Low (yellow) = 1 times reverse rank number Unknown (blue) = 2 times reverse rank number Signup and view all the answers

Match the analysis approaches with their intended outcomes:

Integrated analysis = Holistic view of the criminal environment Crime analysis = Examination of crime context and trends Intelligence analysis = Insight into prolific offenders and criminal groups Tactical intelligence = Data-driven strategies for crime reduction Signup and view all the answers

Match the level of intelligence analysis with its primary focus:

Tactical Intelligence = Supports front-line enforcement officers Operational Intelligence = Guides foresight decision-making Strategic Intelligence = Influences long-term organizational objectives Criminal Intelligence = Creates products to support decision-making in law enforcement Signup and view all the answers

Match the components of crime analysis with their respective descriptions:

Tactical Component = Focuses on immediate issues significant to a police department Operational Component = Identifies priority areas and potential problems Strategic Component = Looks at longer-term problems solvable by various agencies Problem Analysis = Uses formal theories and data collection for in-depth examination Signup and view all the answers

Match the analytical process with its method:

SARA process = Scanning, Analysis, Response, and Assessment Starbursting = Questions involving who, what, where, when, why, how 6-3-5 Method = Six analysts proposing three ideas each in a time limit Integrated Analysis = Combines intelligence and crime analysis for a complete picture Signup and view all the answers

Match the type of analysis with its primary concern:

Crime Analysis = Understanding causes and effects of crime and disorder Criminal Intelligence Analysis = Identifying systemic weaknesses in society Covert Information = Gathering details through surveillance and mapping Integrated Model = Uncovering links between organized crime groups Signup and view all the answers

Match the characteristics with the correct type of intelligence:

Tactical Intelligence = Micro-level scenarios for short-term objectives Operational Intelligence = Meso-level support for area commanders Strategic Intelligence = Future-oriented and proactive insights Criminal Intelligence = Analyzes information to assess organized crime activities Signup and view all the answers

Match the types of crime patterns with their definitions:

Series = A group of similar crimes thought to be committed by the same individuals Spree = Numerous crimes occurring in a short period of time Hot prey = Crimes involving victims with shared characteristics Hot place = Crimes committed in a specific geographical location Signup and view all the answers

Match the following terms related to integrated analysis with their definitions:

Integrated Analysis Model = Aims to integrate crime information with criminal intelligence. Crime Analysts = Focus primarily on reported crime and trends in areas. Intelligence Officers = Sworn officers working in specialized units to gather intelligence. Information Silos = Result from the dissemination of intelligence within a single unit. Signup and view all the answers

Match the crime analysis types with their focus areas:

Tactical crime analysis = Analytical support to cases over short time frames Strategic crime analysis = Long-term reduction objectives through extensive data examination Problem-oriented policing = Managing specific cases, such as organized crime groups or high crime locations Environmental criminology = Examining why crime occurs in specific situations Signup and view all the answers

Match the stages of the intelligence-led policing model with their descriptions:

First stage = Interpreting the criminal environment Second stage = Identifying and influencing decision-makers Final stage = Enthusiasm and skills of decision-makers to reduce crime Impacting the criminal environment = Influencing crime reduction during the decision-making process Signup and view all the answers

Match the following benefits of integrated analysis with their descriptions:

Increased Enforcement Options = Broader tactics suggested through combined crime and intelligence analysis. Fluid Response to Crime = Erasures of compartmentalized policies enhance responsiveness. Ending Segregation of Data = Shared access to data allows for a more comprehensive understanding. Better Coordination with Agencies = Facilitates faster communication and data transmission. Signup and view all the answers

Match the following hindrances to integrated analysis with their causes:

Terminology Confusion = Different terms used by crime analysts and intelligence units. Technology Constraints = Incompatibility due to differently structured databases. Case-by-case Thinking = Conditioned approaches lead to compartmentalized perspectives. Legal Constraints = Regulations that may limit data sharing and collaboration. Signup and view all the answers

Match the crime frequency analysis methods with their explanations:

Frequency distribution = Shows how often values in a dataset occur Crosstab = A table showing relationships between multiple variables Weighted Time Span Analysis = Analyzing fluctuations of crime based on time variables Seasonality = Frequency of crime changes based on external factors like weather Signup and view all the answers

Match the analysis techniques with their intended outcomes:

Pattern Analysis = Identifying commonalities in crime patterns MO summary = Synthesizing multiple crime narratives Trend Comparisons = Evaluating the significance of crime trends over time Tempogram = Graphical display of temporal intervals between crimes Signup and view all the answers

Match the following ways to jumpstart integrated analysis with their strategies:

Become Intelligence Led = Shift focus towards intelligence-driven policing. Close Collaboration = Police chiefs working closely with analysts. Integrated Reporting Mechanisms = Establish common channels for reporting findings. Informal Information-Exchange Mechanisms = Constant communication beyond final meetings. Signup and view all the answers

Match the following levels of decision making in integrated analysis with their descriptions:

Tactical Level = Provides actionable intelligence for viable law enforcement targets. Operational Level = Determines appropriate resource usage and pressing priorities. Strategic Crime Analysis = Approaches problems from a long-term perspective. Strategic Intelligence Analysis = Focuses on overarching criminal patterns and behaviors. Signup and view all the answers

Match the following challenges faced by intelligence analysts with their perceptions:

Feeling Superior = Some analysts view crime analysts as unworthy. Different Missions = Units have significantly different mission statements. Diminished Understanding = Issues may arise from divergent objectives in analyses. Unwillingness to Collaborate = Analysts may resist sharing insights with one another. Signup and view all the answers

Match the following roles within law enforcement with their primary functions:

Criminal Intelligence Analysts = Identify and support the prosecution of organized crime. Crime Analysts = Analyze reported crimes for trends and patterns. Police Chiefs = Lead efforts in fostering collaboration between analysts. Decision Makers = Evaluate resources and prioritize crime intervention efforts. Signup and view all the answers

Match the following best practices in preventing miscarriages of justice with their descriptions:

Tunnel vision = Impairs the proper role of the Crown Attorney due to close identification with police. Mistaken identification = A key factor leading to wrongful convictions due to unreliable eyewitness accounts. Circumstantial evidence = Can lead to erroneous inferences and wrongful convictions. Public pressure = Often influences the urgency to solve horrific crimes, increasing wrongful conviction risks. Signup and view all the answers

Match the following analysts' responsibilities with their associated actions:

Building connections = Fostering relationships with decision makers to understand the big picture. Cross-training = Facilitating mutual appreciation of roles between analysts and intelligence officers. Education on trust = Instructing all officers on building trust within the community. Database integration = Working to avoid duplication of effort in intelligence sharing. Signup and view all the answers

Match the following elements of intelligence-led policing with their focuses:

Targeting offenders = Focusing on active criminals through various means. Management of hotspots = Concentration on areas with high crime and disorder. Investigation of crimes = Linking series of crimes to understand patterns. Preventative measures = Collaboration with local partnerships to reduce crime. Signup and view all the answers

Match the following components of effective crime mapping with their descriptions:

Scale bar = Indicates distance and feature size on a map. North arrow = Provides direction orientation on a map. Legends = Essential for understanding symbols and colors in mapping. Caveats = Statements that clarify limitations to avoid misleading interpretation. Signup and view all the answers

Match the following sources of evidence that contribute to wrongful convictions with their characteristics:

DNA evidence = Often viewed as a strong but not infallible source. Forensic evidence = Can be misinterpreted or improperly presented. In-custody informers = Risky reliance on potentially coerced or unreliable testimony. Eyewitness testimony = Highly susceptible to misidentification and memory errors. Signup and view all the answers

Match the following common errors in criminal justice with their implications:

Police error = Can stem from unprofessional conduct or overzealousness. Prosecution error = Involves suppressing evidence that could aid the defense. Biased conclusions = Appeal to a particular perspective leading to flawed judgments. Witness errors = Often result from faulty memory or stress during testimony. Signup and view all the answers

Match the role of executives in integrated analysis with their actions:

Understanding intelligence-led = Strives to achieve a comprehensive grasp of this concept. Training investment = Prioritizes personal development in understanding related practices. Analyst meetings = Regularly convenes with analysts to discuss strategic direction. Signal importance = Communicates to the department that intelligence functions are valuable. Signup and view all the answers

Match the following studies of wrongful conviction with their findings:

Frank's Study = Identified systemic causes such as mistaken testimony. Borchard's findings = Highlighted mistaken identification and environmental factors. Brandon and Davies Study = Revealed a demographic bias in wrongful conviction cases. Tunnel vision concept = Showed how a focus on winning cases can distort justice. Signup and view all the answers

Match the checklist items for executives with their purposes:

Investing in joint training = Enhances collaboration between intelligence officers and analysts. Co-location of staff = Promotes integration between roles for better analytical outcomes. Focusing on repeat offenders = Aims to address chronic crime problems in the community. Educating about community trust = Informs officers of best practices in community engagement. Signup and view all the answers

Match the following principles of effective police handling of crime with their descriptions:

Mutual independence = Prevents tunnel vision by ensuring separate roles for police and Crown. Understanding of evidence = Fosters transparency in prosecution and builds public trust. Proper duty of disclosure = Ensures critical evidence is made available to the defense. Pressure mitigation = Seeks to alleviate media and public backlash to improve investigation integrity. Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary aim of strategic intelligence in law enforcement?

Provide insight into long-term organizational objectives. Signup and view all the answers

Which component of crime analysis focuses on immediate issues crucial for police departments?

Tactical analysis Signup and view all the answers

At which level of analysis does the focus shift towards understanding organized crime groups and their vulnerabilities?

Operational intelligence Signup and view all the answers

What defines an effective integration of intelligence and crime analysis functions?

Uncovering links between crimes and organized criminal groups. Signup and view all the answers

Which analytical process assists officers and analysts in achieving their goals through systematic examination?

SARA process Signup and view all the answers

What is a key benefit of the integrated analysis model for police agencies?

It allows for a more cohesive understanding of crime patterns and individual behaviors. Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is a hindrance to implementing integrated analysis within police departments?

Terminology confusion leading to misinterpretation. Signup and view all the answers

Which approach is suggested to facilitate the integration of intelligence and crime data analysis?

Establishing informal information-exchange mechanisms. Signup and view all the answers

What is a main focus of crime analysts compared to criminal intelligence analysts?

Reporting crime trends in specific areas. Signup and view all the answers

Which factor does NOT contribute to the separation of intelligence officers from crime analysts?

The use of similar technological tools and databases. Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary purpose of structured analytical techniques (SATs) in intelligence analysis?

To encourage rule-based processes that enhance structured thinking Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT a method used in the brainstorming structured analytical techniques?

A/B Testing Signup and view all the answers

Which analysis method facilitates understanding the likelihood of a hypothesis being true based on evidence?

Diagnositicity Signup and view all the answers

What is the outcome of wrongly segregating crime analysis and criminal intelligence analysis?

Limited decision-making resources for stakeholders Signup and view all the answers

What does the '6-3-5 method' specifically involve in the context of analytical brainstorming?

Six analysts each proposing three hypotheses within a time limit Signup and view all the answers

What is a key factor that can lead to wrongful convictions according to historical studies?

The presence of creative forgettery Signup and view all the answers

Which best describes the concept of tunnel vision in the context of criminal prosecution?

The tendency to overlook evidence that supports a suspect's innocence Signup and view all the answers

What is emphasized in training for analysts in an intelligence-led policing environment?

Understanding the roles and perspectives of police officers Signup and view all the answers

In the context of intelligence-led policing, which of the following is NOT an essential element as outlined in the content?

Investigating isolated incidents without context Signup and view all the answers

What is a common misconception about the impact of media pressure during legal prosecutions?

It sometimes causes prosecutors to overlook exculpatory evidence Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Integrated Intelligence and Crime Analysis

Crime analysis provides the "what" and criminal intelligence the "why" of the criminal environment.
Integrated analysis model provides a complete picture of criminality for access to a wider range of enforcement options.
Crime analysts evaluate based on SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) and CLVI (Capabilities, Limitations, Vulnerabilities, Intentions).
Criminal intelligence analysts use an 8-Point Scale, a method derived from the RCMP’s Sleipnir tool to gauge the relative threat of criminal organizations.
Starbursting generates questions, defines projects/collection, and plans/issues.
Diagnositicity assesses the usefulness of evidence in judging a hypothesis's likelihood.
Abductive reasoning involves choosing the best hypothesis based on incomplete observations.

Avoiding Heuristics and Biases

Structured analytical techniques (SATs) are rule-based processes for minimizing bias and encouraging structured thinking.
SAT methods include Dumping, Role-playing, 6-3-5, and Starbursting.

Very important overview of Crime Analysis and Criminal Intelligence

Tactical-level crime analysts focus on mapping crime incidents for police officers, while criminal intelligence analysts support case investigations of known offenders.
Operational-level crime analysts study crime patterns to inform police resourcing, while criminal intelligence analysts understand and chart the activities of organized crime groups.
Crime analysts seek to understand the causes and effects of crime problems, while criminal intelligence analysts focus on identifying systemic weaknesses exploited by organized crime groups.

What is Intelligence Analysis?

Criminal intelligence supports decision making in law enforcement, crime reduction, and crime prevention.
It can be a written bulletin, presentation, verbal report, or a combination thereof.
It also suggests strategies to reduce crime through problem-oriented tactics like situational crime prevention and crime prevention through environmental design.
Covert information, like wiretap records, becomes criminal intelligence when analyzed and assessed in context with other information.

Levels of Criminal Intelligence

Tactical Intelligence: Used for short-term, arrest-focused activity, supporting front-line officers and investigators.
Operational Intelligence: Guides foresight decision making on an organizational level, supporting area commanders and regional operational managers in planning crime reduction and deploying resources.
Strategic Intelligence: Provides insight into criminal behavior and functioning of the criminal environment, aiming to be future-oriented and proactive.

What is Crime Analysis?

Crime analysis has tactical, operational, and strategic components.
Tactical aspect focuses on immediate issues for a police department.
Operational issues identify priority areas and potential problems.
Strategic component addresses longer-term problems that might be solved by the police or other agencies.
Problem analysis involves systematic investigation of crime and disorder problems using criminal justice theory, research methods, and data analysis.
Problem solving is achieved through the SARA (Scanning, Analysis, Response, and Assessment) process.

The Need for an Integrated Analysis Model

An integrated model of criminal intelligence information and problem analysis was first proposed in the 2000 report, Calling Time on Crime.
Integrating intelligence and crime analysis is essential to uncover crimes linked to organized criminal groups.
Crime analysts often lack the complete picture of crime without intelligence on individuals, locations, and groups.

Why IO and Crime Analysts are Separate

Security clearance and the level of information access influence the separation.
Intelligence officers' sworn oath mandates secrecy.
Crime analysis tends to be disseminated more widely, but sometimes lacks the context for focused operations.
Conversely, criminal intelligence is often disseminated only within a single unit, creating an information silo.

What is an Integrated Analysis Model?

Integrates crime information with criminal intelligence for a complete picture of the criminal environment.
Both crime analysis and criminal intelligence feed into a central pool.
At the tactical level, actionable intelligence provides viable targets for law enforcement attention.
At the operational level, decision makers determine the best resource allocation and priorities.
Strategic crime analysis and strategic intelligence approach the same problem from different directions.

How Might an Integrated Model Work?

Fosters cohesion and eliminates political and subordinate disrespect.
Creates a unified understanding of the problem, allowing for more effective interventions.

Benefits of an Integrated Model

Ends segregation of data, creating a more complete understanding of the criminal environment.
Increases enforcement options by combining targeted patrol areas and offender target packages.
Offers long-term benefits from merging databases, software, computing resources, and training.
Enhances fluid response to crime by removing compartmentalizing procedures.
Creates opportunities for better coordination with outside agencies by improving communication and data transmission.

Hindrances to Integrated Analysis

Some intelligence analysts perceive crime analysts as inferior.
Different missions between intelligence and crime analysis units.
Confusion over terminology.
Case-by-case thinking.
Legal constraints.
Technological limitations.

Jumpstarting Integrated Analysis

Become Intelligence Led.
Police chiefs must collaborate closely with analysts.
Articulate an analytical vision within the police department.
Develop integrated reporting mechanisms.
Establish informal information-exchange mechanisms.
Disseminate useful analysis to decision makers.

Develop Integrated Analysis

Checklist for Executives:
- Understand intelligence-led policing and strive to achieve it.
- Invest in training to understand intelligence-led policing.
- Co-locate analysts and intelligence officers near your office.
- Meet with analysts and intelligence staff together.
- Work with analysts to articulate a vision for analysis.
- Signal the importance of these functions.
- Focus on repeat offenders and persistent problems.
- Invest in joint training opportunities for intelligence officers and crime analysts.
- Educate officers on the importance of building trust with the community.
Checklist for Analysts:
- Build connections with decision makers and other analysts.
- Help decision makers understand the big picture and develop strategic products.
- Learn about problem-oriented policing and apply this approach.
- Organize cross-training for analysts to appreciate intelligence officers' work and vice versa.
- Share intelligence for the common good.
- Integrate databases and avoid duplication of effort.

JJERRYS TOP TEN CRIME MAPPING TIPS

Include a scale bar.
Include a north arrow.
Use simple and clear titles.
Use color carefully.
Fully understand your data and its limitations.
Use thematic mapping cautiously.
Include legends.
Explain any caveats.
Limit the information displayed.
Check maps' appearance in grayscale.

Miscarriages of Justice

Working Group on the Prevention of Miscarriages of Justice focuses on identifying best practices to prevent wrongful convictions.
Key factors contributing to wrongful convictions include tunnel vision, mistaken eyewitness identification and testimony, false confessions, in-custody informers, DNA evidence, forensic evidence and expert testimony, and education.

State Indemnity for Errors of Criminal Justice

Wigmore argued for state compensation for wrongful convictions.
Borchard identified mistaken identification, circumstantial evidence leading to erroneous inferences, perjury, and public pressure to solve horrific crimes as contributing factors.
Borchard noted that an accused's right to remain silent often left a sour taste in the mouth of the jury.

Franks’ Study (1957)

Examined 36 cases of wrongful conviction and pointed to mistaken testimony, especially by eyewitnesses, defective understanding of evidence by jurors, and the adversarial process emphasizing strategies rather than truth.
Psychologists highlight the unreliability of memory.

Brandon and Davies Study (1973)

Wrongful convictions disproportionately affected individuals from lower socioeconomic backgrounds.
Identified contributing factors: police practices, unreliable evidence, unreliable secondary sources, and media and public pressure.

Common Errors Leading to Wrongful Convictions

Errors by witnesses.
Police error.
Prosecution error (suppressing evidence).
Biased conclusions.
The importance of qualified legal counsel as a safeguard.

Tunnel Vision

Tunnel vision occurs when investigators focus narrowly on a suspect, ignoring alternative explanations.
Contributing factors include close identification with the police or victim, and pressure from the media or special interest groups.
Independent Crown attorneys are essential to preventing tunnel vision.

Intelligence-led Policing

Four elements: targeting offenders, managing crime hotspots, investigating linked crimes, and applying preventative measures.
Relies on criminal intelligence analysis to inform decision-making for crime reduction and prevention.
Involves interpreting the criminal environment, identifying and influencing decision-makers, and influencing the criminal environment.
The whole process lacks impact if decision-makers cannot influence the criminal environment and effect crime reduction.

Defining Intelligence

Intelligence involves collecting and processing information that is relevant to a client's needs and can potentially influence their decision-making.
It's an ongoing process that includes tasks, data collection, analysis, dissemination, and feedback to refine future tasks.

Problem-Oriented Policing

Problem-oriented policing and the SARA model (Scanning, Analysis, Response, Assessment) prioritize a case management approach for intelligence-led targeting.
This involves compartmentalizing problems into manageable "chunks," aligning with the case-oriented approach of other professions.

Tactical Analysis

Tactical analysts primarily focus on short-term data analysis, typically using data from the past 24 hours to three months.
Pattern analysis involves identifying commonalities and similarities in crime cases to string them together.
Clearance rates measure the effectiveness of solving crimes.

Types of Crime Patterns

Series: A group of similar crimes believed to be committed by the same individuals.
Spree: A large number of crimes committed over a short period.
Hot Prey: Crimes targeting victims with similar characteristics and behaviors, often seen in gang-related violence.
Hot Product: Crimes involving the theft of a specific type of property, such as espionage activities.
Hot Place: Crimes committed in a specific location.

Analyzing Crime Frequency

Tactical analysts analyze short-term trends, while strategic analysts focus on long-term trends.
Frequency distribution: Analyzes how often values appear within a dataset, revealing trends in the data.
Crosstabulation: A table that shows the relationship between multiple variables.
Weighted Time Span Analysis: Analyzing crime frequency over time to identify patterns and potential interventions.
Seasonality: The influence of factors like weather, school attendance, and work schedules on crime rates.

Trend Comparisons

Comparing monthly or yearly crime trends against other crime categories, jurisdictions, or relevant comparators is essential for understanding their significance.

Temporal Intervals

Accelerating: Decreasing time between incidents.
Decelerating: Increasing time between incidents.
Constant: Consistent time intervals between incidents.
Random: No discernable pattern in intervals.
Tempogram: A visual representation of temporal intervals between crime events in a series.

Chapter 4: Crime Analysis and Prevention

The overarching goal of crime analysis is to improve societal safety and security through crime reduction.
Crime prevention involves proactive measures to eliminate criminal opportunities or create disincentives.
Crime analysis does not involve crime scene investigation, forensic profiling, or physical evidence analysis.
Tactical crime analysis: Supports cases by analyzing incident data from 24 hours to three months.
Strategic crime analysis: Focuses on long-term crime reduction goals, analyzing data from three months to decades.

Environmental Criminology and the Crime Triangle

Environmental criminology investigates why crime occurs in certain situations, not why individuals become criminals.
It examines environments that create opportunities for crime.
The crime triangle consists of a target/victim, a place, and an offender.
Routine Activities Theory: This theory proposes that crime occurs when opportunity arises from an overlap between the activities of potential offenders, victims, and targets.
Crime pattern theory: Offenders often commit crimes within or near places they frequent during their daily routines.
Pareto principle (80/20 rule): A small number of places are responsible for a large proportion of crime events.

Crime Repeat Types

True-repeats: Similar crimes targeting the same person repeatedly.
Chronic-repeats: Different types of crimes targeting the same person repeatedly.
Near-repeats: Similar crimes targeting different targets in close proximity.
Virtual-repeats: Similar crimes targeting targets with similar characteristics.

Intelligence-Led Policing (ILP)

Developed in the early 1990s to proactively combat serious and organized crime.
Prioritizes serious offenders, crime groups, and extremist threats.
Utilizes the PESTLE framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental) for early warning monitoring.

Human Intelligence (HUMINT)

HUMINT involves gathering information from suspects, informants, and witnesses.
Intelligence officers are responsible for vetting and documenting intelligence gathered from these sources.

Integrated Model and Big Data

Aggregate data: Large datasets formed by combining individual-level data.

Biases in Crime Analysis

Representativeness heuristic: Judging individuals or events based on perceived similarity to a known group or event.
Clustering illusion: Assuming a pattern exists in random data.
Dirty data: Large datasets that may contain inaccurate, incomplete, or subjective information.
Anchoring and adjustment heuristic: Heavy reliance on initial information during decision-making, neglecting subsequent data.

Promoting Integrated Analysis

Devil's advocacy: Challenging consensus by presenting alternative hypotheses.
Alternative future analysis: Exploring how uncertainty can impact future outcomes.
Red team: Designing defense strategies based on an opponent's perspective.
Alternative competing hypothesis: Encouraging the consideration of alternative hypotheses to avoid confirmation bias.

Crime Analyst Objectives

Gathering and analyzing crime statistics.
Identifying crime trends.
Preparing reports and briefing notes.
Producing awareness bulletins.
Communicating findings.
Creating crime maps highlighting hotspots and transportation routes.
Extracting and preparing data from records management systems.

Canadian Intelligence and Law Enforcement

Canadian Integrated Intelligence Network (CIIN): A collaboration of law enforcement agencies to share intelligence.
CISC (Canadian Integrated Security Centre): Stewarded by the RCMP, it disseminates criminal intelligence products and services.
FINTRAC (Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada): Requires reporting of transactions over $10,000 or suspicious activity.
CDSA (Controlled Drugs and Substances Act): Defines controlled substances, narcotics, restricted drugs, and precursors.
Case Law: Legal precedents like R v Stinchcombe and R v McNeil shape disclosure obligations in criminal investigations.
Warrants: Require judicial authorization, unless exigent circumstances exist.
Part VI authorizations: Permit law enforcement to intercept private communications in real-time.
CCRTIS (Canadian Criminal Real Time Identification Services): National repository of fingerprints and criminal records.
Third-Party Rule: Documents cannot be shared or disclosed without the originating author's consent.

Uniform Crime Reporting Survey (UCR)

A standardized system administered by Statistics Canada that provides a continuous historical record of crime in Canada since 1962.

Used to determine the centrality of entities in a network to identify optimal targets.
Centrality Measures:
- Degree centrality: Measures direct connections between entities.
- Closeness centrality: Measures distance between an entity and others in the network.
- Betweenness centrality: Measures how often an entity acts as a bridge between other entities.

Intelligence Analysis Time Horizons

Tactical intelligence analysis: Focuses on targeting specific subjects of interest in ongoing investigations with short-term horizons.
Operational intelligence analysis: Compares subjects of interest to assess threat levels within medium-term horizons.
Strategic intelligence analysis: Assesses how social, political, and economic factors will impact the behavior of subjects of interest within long-term horizons.

IMINT (Imagery Intelligence)

Information obtained from visual reproduction using methods like satellite imagery, aerial photography, and infrared sensors.
Production order: Required for accessing information from internet service providers and social media platforms.

Integrated Intelligence and Crime Analysis

Crime analysis provides a snapshot of the criminal environment, while Criminal Intelligence explains the 'why' behind criminal activity.
Integrated analysis allows for comprehensive understanding of criminality, leading to a wider range of enforcement options.
The unnecessary separation of crime analysis and criminal intelligence leads to incomplete and less effective products.
Both Crime Analysts and Intelligence Officers use SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) & CLVI (Capabilities, Limitations, Vulnerabilities, Intentions) to analyze information.
The SLEPNIR scale, derived from the RCMP’s Sleipnir tool, quantifies the threat level of criminal organizations on a scale of 0-8, with 8 being the highest threat.
Analytical techniques like starbursting (question generation) and Abductive Reasoning (hypothesis selection) are used to structure analysis.
Structured Analytical Techniques (SATs) are rule-based processes that minimize bias and encourage structured thinking in intelligence analysis.

Tactical, Operational, and Strategic Levels of Analysis

At the tactical level, crime analysts focus on mapping and analyzing crime incidents, while criminal intelligence analysts concentrate on case support and activity of known offenders.
At the operational level, crime analysts study crime trends, while criminal intelligence analysts analyze the activities of organized crime groups.
At the strategic level, crime analysis aims to understand the causes and effects of major crime problems, while criminal intelligence analyzes systemic societal weaknesses exploited by criminal groups.

Criminal Intelligence

The aim of Criminal intelligence is to create knowledge for decision making in law enforcement, crime reduction, and crime prevention.
It can be presented in various formats, like written bulletins, presentations, or verbal reports.
Criminal Intelligence can suggest strategies to reduce crime and even prevent offending through methods like situational crime prevention and crime prevention through environmental design.
Covert information, like wiretap records and surveillance data, only becomes criminal intelligence when analyzed and assessed in the context of other known information.

Levels of Criminal Intelligence

Tactical intelligence is the most common level, providing support to front-line officers and investigators for short-term, arrest-focused action.
Operational Intelligence guides decision making at the organizational level and supports area commanders and regional managers in planning crime reduction and resource allocation.
Strategic intelligence provides insights into patterns of criminal behavior and aims for long-term proactive action, guiding organizational objectives, policy, resource allocation, and strategic discussions.

What is Crime Analysis?

Crime analysis has a tactical, operational, and strategic component.
The tactical aspect focuses on immediate issues relevant to police departments.
The operational level identifies priority areas and potential problems.
The strategic analysis focuses on long-term issues that may be addressed by police departments, city councils, or other agencies.
Problem analysis involves using criminal justice theory, research methods, and data analysis to examine and develop responses to crime and disorder problems.
The SARA (Scanning, Analysis, Response, Assessment) process is a common framework used for problem solving.

The Need for an Integrated Analysis Model

The integration of intelligence and crime analysis is crucial to understanding the full picture of criminal activity, especially in cases involving organized groups of criminals.
Intelligence analysis focuses on individuals and groups, providing detailed knowledge about offenders, while crime analysis focuses on trends and patterns of crime.
Limited communication between intelligence officers (IO) and analysts can hinder the effectiveness of analysis.
Intelligence information is often kept confidential due to security clearance and legal requirements, leading to information silos.

What is an Integrated Analysis Model?

It aims to integrate crime information with criminal intelligence for a comprehensive view of the criminal environment.
Data from both crime analysis and criminal intelligence is combined into a central pool for a complete picture.
This model allows decision makers to identify actionable intelligence for law enforcement, such as vulnerable locations or individuals, and prioritize resources effectively.

Benefits of an Integrated Model

Ending data segregation allows for a more unified and comprehensive understanding of crime.
Increased enforcement options by combining targeted patrol areas from crime analysis with offender target packages from intelligence analysis.
Long-term cost savings by merging databases, software, computing resources, and training.
More fluid responses to crime due to less compartmentalized information.
The integrated model removes barriers between the two disciplines and encourages better coordination with external agencies.

Hindrances to Integrated Analysis

Some intelligence analysts view crime analysts as less capable and qualified.
Different mission statements between intelligence and crime analysis units can hinder collaboration.
Confusing terminology and different approaches to analysis can create obstacles.
Legal constraints and technology limitations can further complicate integration efforts.

Jumpstarting Integrated Analysis

Shifting toward "intelligence-led" policing, where intelligence is used as a key decision-making tool.
Building strong relationships between police chiefs and analysts.
Articulating a clear analytical vision within the police department.
Developing integrated reporting mechanisms and informal information exchange.
Disseminating useful analysis products effectively to decision-makers.

Developing Integrated Analysis: Checklists for Action

Checklist for Executives

Understand and strive to achieve "intelligence-led policing."
Invest in training to understand intelligence-led policing concepts.
Co-locate analysts and intelligence officers near your office.
Meet with analysts and intelligence staff jointly.
Articulate a vision for analysis within the department.
Prioritize repeat offenders and persistent problems.
Invest in joint training opportunities for intelligence officers and crime analysts.
Educate officers on building trust with the community and how to gather valuable information from those relationships.

Checklist for Analysts

Establish strong connections with decision makers and other analysts.
Help decision makers understand the bigger picture and develop strategic products.
Learn about problem-oriented policing and apply it to solve long-term problems.
Organize cross-training to foster mutual understanding between crime and intelligence analysts.
Share intelligence for the common good.
Work to integrate databases and minimize duplication of effort.

Jerry’s Top Ten Crime Mapping Tips

Include a scale bar to visually represent distance and feature size.
Include a north arrow to indicate direction.
Use simple and clear titles.
Use color strategically.
Understand your data and its limitations.
Use thematic mapping cautiously.
Legends are essential for interpreting the map.
Caveats ensure transparency about the map's limitations.
Limit the amount of information displayed.
Check map appearance in grayscale to ensure it’s readable in different formats.

Miscarriages of Justice

The Working Group on the Prevention of Miscarriages of Justice aims to identify best practices for prosecutors and police to understand the causes of wrongful convictions and develop preventative measures.
Key contributors to wrongful convictions include tunnel vision, mistaken eyewitness identification, false confessions, unreliable informants, DNA evidence, forensic evidence, and lack of education.

State Indemnity for Errors of Criminal Justice

Indemnity should be provided by the state to compensate for wrongly convicted individuals.
Common causes of wrongful conviction include mistaken identification, misinterpreted circumstantial evidence, and perjury.
Environmental factors, such as public pressure to solve crimes, and the negative perception of the exercise of the right to remain silent, can contribute to wrongful convictions.

Franks’ Study (1957)

Analyzes 36 cases of wrongful conviction, identifying systemic issues including mistaken testimony, misinterpretations by jurors, and an adversarial legal system that prioritizes strategies over truth-seeking.
Memory is unreliable and can be influenced by suggestive factors or imagination, even causing "imaginative memory" or "creative forgettery."

Brandon and Davies Study (1973)

Wrongful conviction involves a variety of factors:
- Police practices: overzealousness, unprofessional conduct, incompetence.
- Unreliable evidence: biased expert testimony and weak circumstantial evidence.
- Unreliable secondary sources: police informants, prison informants.
- Media and public pressure to convict.
The prosecution’s failure to disclose all relevant evidence can contribute to wrongful convictions.

Common Errors Leading to Wrongful Convictions

Errors by witnesses.
Police errors.
Prosecution errors, including withholding evidence.
Biased conclusions to appeal to a particular viewpoint.
Proper legal representation is crucial to prevent wrongful convictions.

Tunnel Vision

The purpose of criminal prosecution is to present evidence, not to secure convictions.
Tunnel vision, a focus on achieving conviction without properly considering all evidence, can occur due to:
- Strong relationship between police and prosecutor or the victim.
- Pressure from media or special interest groups.
Mutual independence between prosecutors and police is essential to prevent tunnel vision.

Intelligence-Led Policing

Focus on targeting offenders, managing crime hotspots, investigating linked crimes, and implementing preventative measures.
Intelligence-led policing uses criminal intelligence analysis for objective decision making to reduce crime.
It involves interpreting the criminal environment, influencing decision-makers, and effectively impacting the criminal environment to reduce crime.

Defining Intelligence

Intelligence is valuable information derived from collated and processed data, relevant to client needs and significant for decision making.
Intelligence is a continuous cycle of tasking, data collection, analysis, and dissemination. Feedback informs further tasking.

Problem-Oriented Policing and SARA

Problem-oriented policing utilizes SARA (Scanning, Analysis, Response, Assessment) as a framework for intelligence-led targeting.
This approach structures problems into manageable “chunks” that align with other professional case management methods.

Pattern Analysis

Pattern analysis is identifying and stringing together cases based on commonalities and similarities.
Commonality refers to an exact match in a crime pattern area. Similarity refers to a close match.

Clearance Rates and MO Summaries

Clearance rate measures crime solving success by dividing cleared cases by the total number of cases.
MO (Modus Operandi) summaries utilize pattern analysis by synthesizing details from crime event narratives.
MO summaries gather information from occurrence reports, tips, and social media to establish "who, what, where, how" of an event.

Types of Crime Patterns

Series: Similar crimes likely perpetrated by the same individuals.
Spree: Multiple crimes committed in a short period, notably a killing spree.
Hot prey: Crimes targeting victims sharing similar characteristics and behavior, like gang-related killings.
Hot product: Crimes targeting unique property types, such as espionage targeting specific intel.
Hot place: Crimes committed by the same individuals in the same location.

Analyzing Crime Frequency

Tactical analysts analyze data from 24 hours to 3 months for short-term trends, while strategic analysts examine data up to a decade for long-term trends.
Frequency distribution reveals how often values occur within a dataset based on predetermined categories, highlighting trends.
Converting frequency data into percentages can identify hot spots and common denominators.
Crosstabulation is a table demonstrating relationships between two or more variables.
Grouping data by week and month helps detect longer-term patterns.
This information supports crime reduction measures, resource allocation, and policy formulation.

Weighted Time Span Analysis and Seasonality

Crime frequency can fluctuate seasonally due to factors like weather, school attendance, and work schedules.

Trend Comparisons

Comparing monthly/yearly trends with crime categories, other jurisdictions, or relevant comparators clarifies their significance.

Temporal Intervals

Temporal intervals describe crime patterns over time.
Accelerating: Decreasing time between incidents.
Decelerating: Increasing time between incidents.
Constant: Steady pattern in the time between incidents.
Random: No discernible pattern in the time between incidents.
Tempogram visually represents temporal intervals between events in a series.

Crime Analysis and Its Purpose

The overarching objective of crime analysis is to enhance societal safety and security through crime reduction.
Crime prevention focuses on proactive measures, creating disincentives and removing opportunities for crime.
Crime analysis does not include crime scene investigation, forensic profiling, or analysis of physical evidence.

Tactical and Strategic Crime Analysis

Tactical crime analysis provides analytical support for cases, examining incident data over 24 hours to 3 months.
Strategic crime analysis focuses on long-term crime reduction objectives, examining data from 3 months to decades.

Traditional and Environmental Criminology

Traditional criminology investigates biological, psychological, and sociological factors associated with criminality.
Environmental criminology examines how specific situations, rather than individual motivations, create opportunities for crime.

Crime Triangle and Routine Activities Theory

The crime triangle includes the offender, the target/victim, and the place.
Routine Activities Theory suggests crime patterns emerge when the activity spaces of potential offenders and victims overlap.
Offenders often commit crimes in familiar locations related to their routines.

Pareto Principle and the Law of Crime Concentration

The Pareto Principle states that a small percentage of places account for a large proportion of crime events.
The Law of Crime Concentration posits that 50% of crime occurs in a few micro-hotspots that remain stable over time.

Types of Crime Repeats

True-repeats: The same target is victimized multiple times by the same type of crime.
Chronic-repeats: The same target is victimized multiple times by different types of crime.
Near-repeats: Targets in close proximity with similar characteristics are victimized.
Virtual-repeats: Similar targets are victimized in separate occasions.

Inteligence-Led Policing

ILP was developed in the 1990s to proactively combat serious crimes through a focus on high-risk individuals, crime groups, and emerging threats.
ILP utilizes methods to prioritize these groups and provide early warnings.

The Intelligence Community and PESTLE

The PESTLE model refers to political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental factors considered in early warning monitoring.

HUMINT (Human Intelligence)

HUMINT is intelligence gathered from suspects, informants, and witnesses.
Intelligence officers collect, vet, and document information from these sources, making it accessible to analysts.

Call Detail Records:

Destination number
Direction (incoming/outgoing)
Date and time of communication
Duration
Tower ID
X & Y coordinates of the cell tower

Integrated Model and Data Aggregation

Integrated models aggregate large datasets by combining individual-level data.

Cognitive Biases in Crime Analysis

Representativeness heuristic: Making judgements based on perceived similarity to a known group or event.
Clustering illusion: Perceptually identifying a pattern in a random cluster of data.
Dirty data: Large datasets with inaccuracies, incomplete entries, and subjective information.
Anchoring and adjusting heuristic: Decisions heavily influenced by initial information, neglecting subsequent data.

Integrated Analysis and Siloing

Integrated analysis promotes a holistic approach to data analysis, avoiding "siloing" where different departments work in isolation.
The VPD utilizes CRIME (Consolidated Records Intelligence Mining Environment) as its integrated analysis system.

Devil's Advocacy, Alternative Future Analysis, and Red Teaming For Hypothesis Testing

Devil's advocacy: Actively challenging consensus thinking by building strong arguments for alternative hypothesis.
Alternative future analysis: Exploring how uncertainty can impact outcomes.
Red team: Designing defense strategies based on an enemy's perspective.

Alternative Competing Hypothesis

Encouraging the consideration of alternative hypothesis.
Searching for evidence that contradicts prior beliefs.
Adjusting prior hypotheses when existing evidence is disproven.
This approach helps mitigate confirmation bias.

PRIME BC is a records management system used by the BC Police.
VPD operates in an integrated environment, utilizing the same RMS, MDT, and CAD systems across the province.

Crime Analyst Objectives and Roles

Gather and analyze crime statistics.
Identify crime trends.
Produce reports and briefing notes.
Create bulletin awareness reports.
Communicate findings.
Generate crime maps (hotspots, drug routes).
Extract data from records management systems.

Stewarded by the RCMP, CISC comprises a central bureau in Ottawa and provincial bureaus.
The central bureau provides intelligence products and services to law enforcement and stakeholders.
CISC has a responsibility to report financial transactions exceeding $10,000 or any suspicious transactions to FINTRAC (Financial Transactions And Reports Analysis Centre of Canada).
CDSA ("controlled substance") refers to substances in Schedules I-V of the CDSA, including narcotics, restricted drugs, and controlled drugs.
"Precursor" refers to substances listed in Schedule VI of the CDSA.

Case Law and Disclosure in Intelligence Analysis

Legal precedents like R v Stinchcombe (1991) and R v McNeil (2009) address disclosure obligations, impacting intelligence analysis.
Disclosure refers to the Crown's legal obligation to share relevant evidence with the accused.

Warrants and Authorizations

Judicial authorization is required for warrants unless exigent circumstances exist (imminent harm, loss of evidence).
Obtaining a warrant requires proof of "reasonable suspicion" and "reasonable grounds to believe."
Part VI authorizations legalize intercepting private communications in real-time.

CCRTIS: Canadian Criminal Real Time Identification Services

CCRTIS manages the national repository of fingerprints and criminal record information for Canada.

The Third-Party Rule

Documents cannot be shared or disclosed without consent from the originating author.

UCR: Uniform Crime Reporting Survey

A standardized crime data collection system administered by Statistics Canada.
The survey has provided continuous historical crime records since 1962.

SNA is used in intelligence analysis to identify central entities in networks.
These central entities are considered optimal targets for investigations.
SNA considers various network ties: business, kinship, social, and criminal.

Degrees of Centrality in SNA

Degree centrality measures the direct connections between entities.
Closeness centrality measures the distance between an entity and others (direct and indirect connections).
Betweenness centrality measures the degree of intermediation between other network entities.

Levels of Intelligence Analysis

Tactical: Focusing on targeting specific SOIs (Subjects of Interest) in ongoing investigations within short timeframes.
Operational: Comparing SOIs to assess relative threat levels within medium-term timeframes.
Strategic: Assessing how social, political, and economic factors impact SOI behavior within long-term timeframes.

IMINT (Imagery Intelligence)

IMINT is gathered through optical means, including satellite imagery, aerial photography, and infrared sensors.

Production orders are required from Internet service providers to access user activity, messages, or communications on social media platforms.

Integrated Crime Analysis and Intelligence

Crime analysis describes the "what is happening" of the criminal landscape
Intelligence Analysis describes the "why it is happening" of the criminal landscape
Integrated Analysis provides a holistic view of the criminal landscape, allowing executives to see the "big picture" and access a wider range of enforcement options
Crime analysts focus on evaluating crime trends and patterns
Intelligence analysts focus on evaluating individual offenders and organized crime groups
Both rely on SWOT and CLVI analysis to evaluate situations

Avoiding Heuristics and Biases

Structured Analytical Techniques (SATs) are distinct, rule-based processes to minimize bias and encourage structured thinking
Brainstorming SATs:
- Dumping
- Role-playing
- 6-3-5 Method
- Starbursting

Tactical, Operational, and Strategic Intelligence

Tactical Intelligence supports frontline operations in achieving short-term, arrest-focused objectives
Operational Intelligence supports regional and area operation managers in planning crime reduction activity and deploying resources
Strategic Intelligence provides insight into criminal behavior patterns and the functioning of the criminal environment, aiming to be future-oriented and proactive

Crime Analysis

Crime analysis has a tactical, operational, and strategic component
Tactical: Focuses on immediate issues of significance to police departments
Operational: Identifies priority areas and potential problems
Strategic: Looks at long-term problems that may be solved by police or other agencies

The Need for an Integrated Analysis Model

The integration of intelligence and crime analysis is essential to uncovering crimes linked to organized groups (juveniles, gang-related activity, etc.)

Hindrances to Integrated Analysis

Intelligence analysts may view crime analysts as unqualified
Intelligence and crime analysis units often have different mission statements
Terminology confusion can create barriers
Legal and technology constraints may limit data sharing and analysis

Developing Integrated Analysis

Embrace an intelligence-led approach
Foster strong relationships between police chiefs and analysts
Articulate a clear vision for analysis within the department
Implement integrated reporting mechanisms and informal information exchange
Disseminate useful analysis to decision makers

Jerry's Top 10 Crime Mapping Tips

Include a scale bar
Include a north arrow
Use simple and clear titles
Use color carefully and thoughtfully
Clearly understand the data and its limitations
Use thematic mapping cautiously
Create essential legends
Be transparent about any caveats
Limit the amount of information presented
Check map appearance in grayscale

Miscarriages of Justice

Key factors contributing to wrongful convictions:
- Tunnel vision
- Mistaken eyewitness identification and testimony
- False confessions
- In-custody Informers
- DNA evidence
- Forensic evidence and expert testimony
- Lack of education

Intelligence-Led Policing

The four elements of intelligence-led policing concentrate on:
- Targeting offenders
- Managing crime and disorder hotspots
- Investigating linked series of crimes
- Applying preventative measures
Intelligence-led policing uses analysis for objective decision-making to facilitate crime reduction and prevention
For intelligence-led policing to be effective, decision-makers must be able to influence the criminal environment and effect crime reduction.

Defining Intelligence

Intelligence is a product derived from information, relevant to client needs and significant for decision making.
Intelligence is also a process of continuous cycles of tasking, data collection, analysis, dissemination, and feedback.
Problem-oriented policing and SARA approach intelligence-led targeting, breaking down problems into manageable units.

Chapter 5: Tactical Analysis

Tactical analysts use data from the last two weeks for analysis.
Pattern analysis is the process of stringing together cases based on similarities, focusing on commonalities or close matches.
Clearance rate is a measure of success in solving crimes, calculated as cleared cases divided by total cases multiplied by 100.
The MO summary is a form of pattern analysis that involves manually synthesizing multiple crime event narratives.

Types of Crime Patterns

Series: A group of similar crimes believed to be committed by the same individuals.
Spree: A series of crimes, often violent, committed in a short period.
Hot Prey: Crimes targeting victims with similar characteristics and behaviors.
Hot Product: Crimes targeting specific types of property for theft.
Hot Place: Crimes committed in a particular location by the same individuals.

Analyzing Crime Frequency

Tactical analysts identify short-term trends using data from 24 hours to 3 months.
Strategic analysts identify long-term trends using data from 3 months to a decade or more.
Frequency distribution shows the frequency of values in a dataset based on predefined categories, highlighting trends.
Crosstabulation is a table showing the relationship between two or more variables.
Analyzing frequency by week and month helps detect longer-term patterns.

Weighted Time Span Analysis

Seasonality refers to crime frequency fluctuations influenced by weather, school schedules, or work schedules.

Temporal Intervals

Accelerating: Decreasing time intervals between incidents.
Decelerating: Increasing time intervals between incidents.
Constant: Steady time intervals between incidents.
Random: No identifiable pattern in time intervals.

Tempogram

A graphical display representing temporal intervals between crime events in a series.

Chapter 4: Crime Analysis

The overarching goal of crime analysis is to enhance societal safety and security through crime reduction.
Crime prevention utilizes proactive measures to deter or eliminate opportunities for crime.
Crime analysis differs from crime scene investigation, forensic profiling, and analysis of physical evidence.

Types of Crime Analysis

Tactical Crime Analysis: Supports ongoing cases by examining data from 24 hours to 3 months.
Strategic Crime Analysis: Focuses on long-term crime reduction objectives, using data from 3 months to decades.

Criminology and Environmental Criminology

Traditional criminology examines biological, psychological, and sociological factors contributing to criminal behavior.
Environmental Criminology investigates the situational factors leading to crime occurrences, focusing on environmental opportunities that facilitate crime.

Routine Activities Theory and the Problem Analysis Triangle

Crime pattern theory posits that opportunities for crime arise when potential offenders and potential victims/targets share activity spaces.
Offenders often commit crimes within or near familiar environments, especially places they frequent.
Pareto principle: A small number of places account for a large proportion of crime.
Law of Crime Concentration: 50% of crimes occur in 2-6% of micro places, remaining stable over time.

Types of Repeat Victimization

True-repeats: Same type of crime against the same target repeatedly.
Chronic-repeats: Different types of crime against the same target repeatedly.
Near-repeats: Similar crimes in close proximity to an original target.
Virtual-repeats: Crimes against targets resembling an original target.

Intelligence-Led Policing

Intelligence-led policing (ILP): Developed in the 1990s to combat serious and organized crime through proactive measures, prioritizes serious offenders, crime groups, and domestic extremist groups.
PESTLE (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental): This framework helps monitor broad socio-economic factors for early warning threats.

HUMINT (Human Intelligence)

Information gathered from suspects, informants, and witnesses.
Intelligence officers and source handlers collect, vet, and document intelligence from HUMINT sources, making it accessible to analysts.

Integrated Models & Datasets

Aggregate data are large datasets created by combining individual-level data.

Cognitive Biases in Crime Pattern Theory

Representativeness heuristic: Judging a person or event based on perceived similarity to a known group or event.
Clustering illusion: Mistakenly perceiving patterns in random data.
Dirty data: Large datasets containing incomplete, inaccurate, and subjective information.
Anchoring and adjustment heuristic: Decisions heavily influenced by initial information, with minimal consideration for subsequent information.

Integrated Analysis & Promoting Collaboration

Integrated analysis: Promotes sharing information and collaboration between different units, breaking down silos.

Devil's Advocacy and Alternate Futures

Devil’s advocacy: Challenging group consensus by promoting alternative hypotheses.
Alternative future analysis: Exploring how uncertainty can influence outcomes.
Red team: Developing defense strategies by simulating enemy tactics.

Alternative Competing Hypothesis

Encourages considering alternative hypotheses to avoid confirmation bias.

Police Record Management Systems

BC Police System (PRIME BC): Uses software developed by Versaterm for records management.
VPD (Vancouver Police Department): Operates in a unique environment using the same records management system, mobile data terminal system, and computer-aided dispatch system across the province.

Crime Analyst Objectives

Roles and responsibilities:
- Gathering and analyzing crime statistics.
- Identifying crime trends.
- Preparing reports and briefing notes.
- Producing awareness bulletins.
- Communicating findings.
- Creating crime maps (hotspots, drug transport routes).
- Extracting and preparing data from records management systems.

Canadian Intelligence Community

CISC (Canadian Integrated Security Centre): Stewarded by the RCMP, providing criminal intelligence products and services to law enforcement.

Financial Transactions and Reporting

FINTRAC: Reporting requirements for transactions over $10,000 and suspicious transactions.
CDSA (Controlled Drugs and Substances Act): Definitions of "controlled substance" and "precursor."

Legal Considerations

Case law (precedents): R v Stinchcombe (1991) and R v McNeil (2009), have shaped disclosure requirements for crime and intelligence analysis.
Warrants and Authorizations: Require judicial authorization and proof of "reasonable suspicion" and "reasonable grounds to believe."
Part VI authorizations: Authorize law enforcement to monitor private communications in real time (Transmission Data Recorder).

National Criminal Records

CCRTIS (Canadian Criminal Real Time Identification Services): National repository of fingerprints and criminal record information.

Third-Party Rule

Indicates that documents can't be shared or disclosed without consent from the originating author.

Uniform Crime Reporting Survey (UCR)

A standardized crime data collection system administered by Statistics Canada.

Used to determine the centrality of entities in a network to identify optimal targets.
SNA considers business, kinship, social, and criminal ties.

Degrees of Centrality

Degree Centrality: Measures direct connections of an entity to others.
Closeness Centrality: Measures the distance between an entity and other network entities (direct and indirect connections).
Betweenness Centrality: Measures an entity's position as an intermediary between other network entities.

Intelligence Analysis Levels

Tactical intelligence analysis: Target specific SOIs (Subjects of Interest) in ongoing investigations within short timeframes.
Operational intelligence analysis: Compares SOIs to assess relative threat levels within medium-term timeframes.
Strategic intelligence analysis: Assesses how social, political, and economic factors will impact SOI behavior in long-term timeframes.

IMINT (Imagery Intelligence)

Information gathered through optical means, including satellite imagery, aerial photography, and infrared sensors.

Production orders are required from Internet service providers to monitor activity and communication on social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, WhatsApp, Signal, Telegram, and WeChat.

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Description

This quiz explores crucial concepts in crime analysis and intelligence, focusing on methods for evaluating criminal behavior, including the integration of structured analytical techniques and the SARA process. Test your understanding of crime patterns, tactical and strategic intelligence, and how covert information becomes actionable intelligence.