Podcast
Questions and Answers
What is the primary distinction between a heuristic and an algorithm?
What is the primary distinction between a heuristic and an algorithm?
How does the concept of 'System 1' relate to heuristics?
How does the concept of 'System 1' relate to heuristics?
In the card selection task, what is the logical explanation for why the correct cards must be selected?
In the card selection task, what is the logical explanation for why the correct cards must be selected?
What did Cosmides and Tooby's research on cheater-detection modules suggest about human reasoning?
What did Cosmides and Tooby's research on cheater-detection modules suggest about human reasoning?
Signup and view all the answers
In the context of the plane armor example, what critical data was omitted?
In the context of the plane armor example, what critical data was omitted?
Signup and view all the answers
What is the main mistake in analyzing only the returned planes when designing protection?
What is the main mistake in analyzing only the returned planes when designing protection?
Signup and view all the answers
What was the consequence of the U.S. military's initial analysis of plane damage prior to Wald's insight?
What was the consequence of the U.S. military's initial analysis of plane damage prior to Wald's insight?
Signup and view all the answers
How is the card selection exercise similar to the plane reinforcement example?
How is the card selection exercise similar to the plane reinforcement example?
Signup and view all the answers
Which of the following best describes the sunk cost fallacy?
Which of the following best describes the sunk cost fallacy?
Signup and view all the answers
What is the key finding regarding 'realistic' versus 'best case' scenario predictions in the context of planning tasks?
What is the key finding regarding 'realistic' versus 'best case' scenario predictions in the context of planning tasks?
Signup and view all the answers
What does the planning fallacy primarily refer to?
What does the planning fallacy primarily refer to?
Signup and view all the answers
What is the primary issue with only observing the success stories of college dropouts when evaluating the decision to drop out?
What is the primary issue with only observing the success stories of college dropouts when evaluating the decision to drop out?
Signup and view all the answers
Which of these is NOT a characteristic of a 'maximizer' decision-maker?
Which of these is NOT a characteristic of a 'maximizer' decision-maker?
Signup and view all the answers
How does the 'default effect' influence decision-making?
How does the 'default effect' influence decision-making?
Signup and view all the answers
What is the central purpose of a 'premortem' as an antidote to the planning fallacy?
What is the central purpose of a 'premortem' as an antidote to the planning fallacy?
Signup and view all the answers
Which of the following scenarios best exemplifies the 'anchoring effect'?
Which of the following scenarios best exemplifies the 'anchoring effect'?
Signup and view all the answers
Why do people often overestimate the probability of deaths caused by unusual events, such as nuclear disasters?
Why do people often overestimate the probability of deaths caused by unusual events, such as nuclear disasters?
Signup and view all the answers
What does Nassim Taleb suggest about low probability events when they are repeated?
What does Nassim Taleb suggest about low probability events when they are repeated?
Signup and view all the answers
Based on the provided description, which of the following best characterizes Tom W.'s personality?
Based on the provided description, which of the following best characterizes Tom W.'s personality?
Signup and view all the answers
What is a practical solution mentioned in the text to mitigate the availability heuristic?
What is a practical solution mentioned in the text to mitigate the availability heuristic?
Signup and view all the answers
What is a key characteristic of the 'base rate fallacy'?
What is a key characteristic of the 'base rate fallacy'?
Signup and view all the answers
If someone uses the availability heuristic, what is their primary basis for estimating the likelihood of an event?
If someone uses the availability heuristic, what is their primary basis for estimating the likelihood of an event?
Signup and view all the answers
Which cognitive bias is most directly linked to an overestimation of war-related deaths compared to the actual statistic?
Which cognitive bias is most directly linked to an overestimation of war-related deaths compared to the actual statistic?
Signup and view all the answers
What best describes Tom W.'s personality, which is used as an example in the text?
What best describes Tom W.'s personality, which is used as an example in the text?
Signup and view all the answers
Which of the following best illustrates the distinction between the availability heuristic and the representativeness heuristic?
Which of the following best illustrates the distinction between the availability heuristic and the representativeness heuristic?
Signup and view all the answers
What is a common consequence of the 'exponential growth bias'?
What is a common consequence of the 'exponential growth bias'?
Signup and view all the answers
Why does exponential growth result in 'thick-tailed' distributions, rather than normal distributions?
Why does exponential growth result in 'thick-tailed' distributions, rather than normal distributions?
Signup and view all the answers
Which is an example of a distribution with a ‘thick tail’?
Which is an example of a distribution with a ‘thick tail’?
Signup and view all the answers
According to the provided information about 'Prospect Theory', which choice would most people select? Option A: Get $900 for sure OR Option B: 90% chance to get $1,000
According to the provided information about 'Prospect Theory', which choice would most people select? Option A: Get $900 for sure OR Option B: 90% chance to get $1,000
Signup and view all the answers
According to the concept of loss aversion, which option would a person be more likely to choose?
According to the concept of loss aversion, which option would a person be more likely to choose?
Signup and view all the answers
The tendency to be more risk-seeking when trying to avoid a loss, rather than to achieve a gain, is best described by what psychological concept?
The tendency to be more risk-seeking when trying to avoid a loss, rather than to achieve a gain, is best described by what psychological concept?
Signup and view all the answers
Which of these options best illustrates the 'peak-end rule'?
Which of these options best illustrates the 'peak-end rule'?
Signup and view all the answers
An investor believes that because a stock has increased in value for several consecutive days, it is now due for a decline and chooses accordingly. This behavior is mostly consistent with what concept?
An investor believes that because a stock has increased in value for several consecutive days, it is now due for a decline and chooses accordingly. This behavior is mostly consistent with what concept?
Signup and view all the answers
Which concept best explains why someone might undervalue an item they don't own, compared to an identical item they do own?
Which concept best explains why someone might undervalue an item they don't own, compared to an identical item they do own?
Signup and view all the answers
You are managing a project that is over budget. Although a competing product out-performs yours, you are still inclined to continue funding it. Which concept is most likely influencing your decision?
You are managing a project that is over budget. Although a competing product out-performs yours, you are still inclined to continue funding it. Which concept is most likely influencing your decision?
Signup and view all the answers
Why, from an ancestral perspective, might humans be more sensitive to losses than to gains?
Why, from an ancestral perspective, might humans be more sensitive to losses than to gains?
Signup and view all the answers
You have two different job offers, one with a high salary but long working hours, and another with a moderate salary but much better working conditions. Which of the described biases would best relate to the reason why someone might choose the high salary, despite high working hours?
You have two different job offers, one with a high salary but long working hours, and another with a moderate salary but much better working conditions. Which of the described biases would best relate to the reason why someone might choose the high salary, despite high working hours?
Signup and view all the answers
Study Notes
Judgement & Decision Making
- Heuristics are mental shortcuts, rules of thumb, used in decision-making.
- Algorithms are step-by-step procedures that guarantee a correct solution, but can be time-consuming.
- The human mind often relies heavily on heuristics.
- Heuristics are associated with System 1 thinking.
- System 1 thinking is automatic, fast, and intuitive.
- System 1 thinking is successful at solving problems in practical, natural environments.
- System 1 thinking may involve systematic errors, not necessarily flaws.
- System 1 thinking also involves errors in assessing probabilities.
- Cheater detection module highlights that social context influences reasoning. Specific mechanisms govern social interaction problems, rather than general-purpose mechanisms.
- Survivorship bias is a common cognitive bias where only the survivors of a process are considered, leading to an inaccurate assessment of the overall outcome.
Availability Heuristic
- People judge the probability of an event based on how easily similar instances come to mind (e.g., from memory or media).
- Vivid memories of dramatic events can make those events seem more frequent than they actually are.
- The ease with which instances come to mind can be a surrogate for probability.
- This heuristic can be important for solving practical problems, but also involves subjective biases that can be misinterpreted.
- Estimate of deaths from war and conflict is often notably higher than actual; this involves recall bias.
- Massive opposition to nuclear power can be attributed to the availability heuristic when significant tragedies such as Fukushima are highlighted.
Anchoring Effect
- Anchoring is a cognitive bias where individuals depend too heavily on an initial piece of information offered (the "anchor").
- The anchor can be highly or extremely high, very low, or even extraneous to the issue at hand.
- This bias can significantly impact negotiations and other decision-making processes.
- Individuals use an initial value (the anchor) to adjust their estimates, even if the anchor is arbitrary or irrelevant.
- Asking individuals to spin a wheel of fortune before estimating the percentage of UN members who are African nations is an example of anchoring.
Base Rate Fallacy
- The base rate fallacy is also known as the representativeness heuristic.
- People ignore the base rates when making judgments.
- Base rate is a fundamental part of evaluating probability, but the representativeness heuristic can cause an individual to ignore that factor instead.
- Example: People often judge a person to be a computer science student when there is no obvious reason to believe that, simply based on the stereotype.
Endowment Effect
- The endowment effect is the tendency for people to place a higher value on something they own or possess (e.g. property, goods, or services).
- Once ownership is established an individual will likely favor the object they own, even if established randomly.
- This effect can influence pricing and decision-making, impacting individual behavior and judgments.
Planning Fallacy
- The planning fallacy is the tendency for individuals to underestimate the time needed to complete tasks.
- Overconfidence often leads to unrealistic timelines.
- This bias is not just financial in nature, but can be observed in time, health, or ethical decisions.
- An important antidote is to use premortem analysis, where you consider all possible negative events, not only positive ones.
Loss Aversion
- Individuals tend to be more averse to losses and will likely take greater risks to avoid them rather than make gains.
- This is often attributed to a greater emphasis is placed on preventing losses, even in cases that might be beneficial to the individual financially.
- Losses loom larger than gains.
- Losses hurt more than the pleasure of gains.
Peak-End Rule
- People's judgments of past experiences are based on the peak (most intense moment) and the end.
- People forget the duration of an experience.
- This rule impacts things like evaluating medical treatments or vacations.
- The pain or pleasure from an experience is judged based on its peak and end moments.
Gambler's Fallacy
- Individuals believe that previous outcomes are more significant than they effectively are; this can cause a person to overthink future outcomes.
- If an event occurs more (or less) frequently than expected, it is assumed by some to be more (or less) likely to occur in the future as well; based on prior random events occurring.
- This belief often leads people to make mistakes when betting or evaluating outcomes of events, which often results in poor choices.
Studying That Suits You
Use AI to generate personalized quizzes and flashcards to suit your learning preferences.
Related Documents
Description
Explore the nuances of heuristics versus algorithms in cognitive psychology through this quiz. Delve into key concepts like System 1 thinking, the card selection task, and common reasoning errors. Gain insights into real-world applications, such as military analysis and forecasting errors.