Cognitive Psychology: Heuristics and Biases
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Questions and Answers

What is the primary distinction between a heuristic and an algorithm?

  • Heuristics rely on a complex analysis, while algorithms rely on simple rules.
  • Algorithms are step-by-step procedures guaranteeing a correct solution, while heuristics are shortcuts that may not always be accurate. (correct)
  • Heuristics are exhaustive, while algorithms are shortcuts.
  • Algorithms are used in natural environments, while heuristics are used in formal settings.
  • How does the concept of 'System 1' relate to heuristics?

  • System 1 is a slow, deliberate process for correcting heuristic errors.
  • System 1 is associated with heuristic decision-making processes. (correct)
  • System 1 is a random process that produces unsystematic errors.
  • System 1 is a sophisticated computational process that always follows set rules.
  • In the card selection task, what is the logical explanation for why the correct cards must be selected?

  • To verify the statement by confirming all possible pairs.
  • To seek evidence that confirms a social rule.
  • To look for exceptions to prove the statement was correct.
  • To attempt to falsify a conditional rule and its counterexample. (correct)
  • What did Cosmides and Tooby's research on cheater-detection modules suggest about human reasoning?

    <p>Human reasoning involves a specific adaptation for social interactions. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the context of the plane armor example, what critical data was omitted?

    <p>Data about the planes that were damaged and did not return. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the main mistake in analyzing only the returned planes when designing protection?

    <p>It suffers from selection bias by ignoring the most critical data. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What was the consequence of the U.S. military's initial analysis of plane damage prior to Wald's insight?

    <p>They would've focused on reinforcing areas that were actually survivable with damage instead of the most vulnerable parts. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How is the card selection exercise similar to the plane reinforcement example?

    <p>Both involve identifying missing data essential for a valid decision. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following best describes the sunk cost fallacy?

    <p>Making a choice based on past efforts, not future outcomes. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the key finding regarding 'realistic' versus 'best case' scenario predictions in the context of planning tasks?

    <p>There was little difference between the 'realistic' and 'best case' estimates, often leading to underestimation of time. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the planning fallacy primarily refer to?

    <p>The tendency to underestimate the duration needed to complete most tasks. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary issue with only observing the success stories of college dropouts when evaluating the decision to drop out?

    <p>It ignores the vast number of dropouts who do not achieve the same success, creating survivorship bias. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of these is NOT a characteristic of a 'maximizer' decision-maker?

    <p>They tend to be more satisfied with their choices. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does the 'default effect' influence decision-making?

    <p>It increases the chance that a pre-selected option will be chosen. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the central purpose of a 'premortem' as an antidote to the planning fallacy?

    <p>To list all factors that could prevent you from meeting the schedule, allowing for better estimation. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following scenarios best exemplifies the 'anchoring effect'?

    <p>A car salesman starting with a very high asking price to influence the final sale price. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why do people often overestimate the probability of deaths caused by unusual events, such as nuclear disasters?

    <p>Because these events often have very few, but very salient examples in the news, which influence the availability heuristic. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does Nassim Taleb suggest about low probability events when they are repeated?

    <p>The chance of an extreme outcome increases as low probability events accumulate, making paranoia about them rational. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Based on the provided description, which of the following best characterizes Tom W.'s personality?

    <p>Intelligent yet lacking in true creativity, with a preference for order and a limited interest in others. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a practical solution mentioned in the text to mitigate the availability heuristic?

    <p>Looking at statistical data instead of relying on immediate or easily recalled examples. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a key characteristic of the 'base rate fallacy'?

    <p>Overemphasizing the representativeness of a situation while ignoring prior probabilities. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If someone uses the availability heuristic, what is their primary basis for estimating the likelihood of an event?

    <p>The ease and speed with which similar events can be recalled. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which cognitive bias is most directly linked to an overestimation of war-related deaths compared to the actual statistic?

    <p>The availability heuristic. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What best describes Tom W.'s personality, which is used as an example in the text?

    <p>He is highly intelligent but not creative as he needs systems in which every detail fits neatly. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following best illustrates the distinction between the availability heuristic and the representativeness heuristic?

    <p>The availability heuristic uses ease of recall, while the representativeness heuristic judges based on similarity to a category. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a common consequence of the 'exponential growth bias'?

    <p>Underestimating the rate of exponential growth, leading to surprises. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why does exponential growth result in 'thick-tailed' distributions, rather than normal distributions?

    <p>Because extreme values deviate greatly from the mean with exponential growth. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which is an example of a distribution with a ‘thick tail’?

    <p>Populations of cities. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    According to the provided information about 'Prospect Theory', which choice would most people select? Option A: Get $900 for sure OR Option B: 90% chance to get $1,000

    <p>Most people would choose option A to avoid the risk of receiving nothing. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    According to the concept of loss aversion, which option would a person be more likely to choose?

    <p>A guaranteed loss of $900 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The tendency to be more risk-seeking when trying to avoid a loss, rather than to achieve a gain, is best described by what psychological concept?

    <p>Loss aversion (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of these options best illustrates the 'peak-end rule'?

    <p>Choosing to repeat a trial of 14 degrees for 60 seconds, then 15 degrees for 30 seconds, despite it being more unpleasant. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    An investor believes that because a stock has increased in value for several consecutive days, it is now due for a decline and chooses accordingly. This behavior is mostly consistent with what concept?

    <p>The gambler's fallacy (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which concept best explains why someone might undervalue an item they don't own, compared to an identical item they do own?

    <p>The endowment effect (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    You are managing a project that is over budget. Although a competing product out-performs yours, you are still inclined to continue funding it. Which concept is most likely influencing your decision?

    <p>Loss aversion (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why, from an ancestral perspective, might humans be more sensitive to losses than to gains?

    <p>Because losses could have led directly to starvation, whereas gains only have diminishing returns (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    You have two different job offers, one with a high salary but long working hours, and another with a moderate salary but much better working conditions. Which of the described biases would best relate to the reason why someone might choose the high salary, despite high working hours?

    <p>Loss aversion (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Study Notes

    Judgement & Decision Making

    • Heuristics are mental shortcuts, rules of thumb, used in decision-making.
    • Algorithms are step-by-step procedures that guarantee a correct solution, but can be time-consuming.
    • The human mind often relies heavily on heuristics.
    • Heuristics are associated with System 1 thinking.
    • System 1 thinking is automatic, fast, and intuitive.
    • System 1 thinking is successful at solving problems in practical, natural environments.
    • System 1 thinking may involve systematic errors, not necessarily flaws.
    • System 1 thinking also involves errors in assessing probabilities.
    • Cheater detection module highlights that social context influences reasoning. Specific mechanisms govern social interaction problems, rather than general-purpose mechanisms.
    • Survivorship bias is a common cognitive bias where only the survivors of a process are considered, leading to an inaccurate assessment of the overall outcome.

    Availability Heuristic

    • People judge the probability of an event based on how easily similar instances come to mind (e.g., from memory or media).
    • Vivid memories of dramatic events can make those events seem more frequent than they actually are.
    • The ease with which instances come to mind can be a surrogate for probability.
    • This heuristic can be important for solving practical problems, but also involves subjective biases that can be misinterpreted.
    • Estimate of deaths from war and conflict is often notably higher than actual; this involves recall bias.
    • Massive opposition to nuclear power can be attributed to the availability heuristic when significant tragedies such as Fukushima are highlighted.

    Anchoring Effect

    • Anchoring is a cognitive bias where individuals depend too heavily on an initial piece of information offered (the "anchor").
    • The anchor can be highly or extremely high, very low, or even extraneous to the issue at hand.
    • This bias can significantly impact negotiations and other decision-making processes.
    • Individuals use an initial value (the anchor) to adjust their estimates, even if the anchor is arbitrary or irrelevant.
    • Asking individuals to spin a wheel of fortune before estimating the percentage of UN members who are African nations is an example of anchoring.

    Base Rate Fallacy

    • The base rate fallacy is also known as the representativeness heuristic.
    • People ignore the base rates when making judgments.
    • Base rate is a fundamental part of evaluating probability, but the representativeness heuristic can cause an individual to ignore that factor instead.
    • Example: People often judge a person to be a computer science student when there is no obvious reason to believe that, simply based on the stereotype.

    Endowment Effect

    • The endowment effect is the tendency for people to place a higher value on something they own or possess (e.g. property, goods, or services).
    • Once ownership is established an individual will likely favor the object they own, even if established randomly.
    • This effect can influence pricing and decision-making, impacting individual behavior and judgments.

    Planning Fallacy

    • The planning fallacy is the tendency for individuals to underestimate the time needed to complete tasks.
    • Overconfidence often leads to unrealistic timelines.
    • This bias is not just financial in nature, but can be observed in time, health, or ethical decisions.
    • An important antidote is to use premortem analysis, where you consider all possible negative events, not only positive ones.

    Loss Aversion

    • Individuals tend to be more averse to losses and will likely take greater risks to avoid them rather than make gains.
    • This is often attributed to a greater emphasis is placed on preventing losses, even in cases that might be beneficial to the individual financially.
    • Losses loom larger than gains.
    • Losses hurt more than the pleasure of gains.

    Peak-End Rule

    • People's judgments of past experiences are based on the peak (most intense moment) and the end.
    • People forget the duration of an experience.
    • This rule impacts things like evaluating medical treatments or vacations.
    • The pain or pleasure from an experience is judged based on its peak and end moments.

    Gambler's Fallacy

    • Individuals believe that previous outcomes are more significant than they effectively are; this can cause a person to overthink future outcomes.
    • If an event occurs more (or less) frequently than expected, it is assumed by some to be more (or less) likely to occur in the future as well; based on prior random events occurring.
    • This belief often leads people to make mistakes when betting or evaluating outcomes of events, which often results in poor choices.

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    Description

    Explore the nuances of heuristics versus algorithms in cognitive psychology through this quiz. Delve into key concepts like System 1 thinking, the card selection task, and common reasoning errors. Gain insights into real-world applications, such as military analysis and forecasting errors.

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