Cognitive Processes: Judgment and Decision Making

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What is judgment referred to as in the context of decision-making?

The process of making a choice

The process of evaluating the quality of a decision

The process of drawing conclusions based on observed evidence from prior experiences (correct)

The process of estimating the probability of an outcome

What type of estimate is involved in many judgments?

Probability estimate

Normative estimate

Frequency estimate (correct)

Causal estimate

Which of the following is an example of a judgment?

Deciding what to wear to a party

Evaluating the quality of a restaurant

Calculating the probability of a stock market crash

Determining whether a car is a good buy (correct)

What is the primary function of dual-process models?

To explain the triggers for skilled intuition Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary concern in confirmation and disconfirmation?

The confirmation or disconfirmation of a hypothesis Signup and view all the answers

What is the relationship between judgment and decision-making?

Judgment is a component of decision-making Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary mental shortcut used when judging the likelihood of an event based on how easily examples come to mind?

Availability Heuristic Signup and view all the answers

When assessing a job candidate, what heuristic is used if the judgment is based on how well the candidate resembles the ideal employee?

Representativeness Heuristic Signup and view all the answers

What is the strategy of relying on easily assessed information as a proxy for needed information?

Attribute Substitution Signup and view all the answers

When using the availability heuristic, what is substituted with frequency?

Speed of coming up with examples Signup and view all the answers

What is the type of substitution used in the representativeness heuristic?

Substituting likelihood with resemblance Signup and view all the answers

What is the focus of the question 'How many times was I late taking the Parkway'?

Availability Heuristic Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary reason why people overestimate the frequency of rare events?

Because they are more memorable and thus more available in memory Signup and view all the answers

What is the outcome of using the Availability Heuristic in medical diagnosis?

Physicians are more likely to overestimate the likelihood of rare diseases Signup and view all the answers

What did Schwarz et al.'s study (1991) demonstrate about the Availability Heuristic?

That people are more accurate when they recall fewer instances of a behavior Signup and view all the answers

What is the underlying cause of the error in the Availability Heuristic?

The tendency to overestimate the frequency of rare events due to their memorability Signup and view all the answers

What is the relationship between the number of examples recalled and the judgment of one's assertiveness?

Recalling fewer examples leads to a higher judgment of assertiveness Signup and view all the answers

What is the underlying assumption of the representativeness heuristic?

That all members of a category are exactly alike Signup and view all the answers

What type of argument is exemplified by the statement 'I have an aunt who smoked for 50 years and runs in marathons'?

Man who argument Signup and view all the answers

What is the error in reasoning in the statement 'I know a guy who bought this laptop and it fell apart the next day, so I shouldn't buy it'?

Assuming that the laptop is a representative sample of the entire category Signup and view all the answers

What is the gambler's fallacy?

The belief that a random event is more likely to happen because it has not happened recently Signup and view all the answers

What is the probability of getting tails on the seventh coin toss if heads have been tossed six times in a row?

Exactly 50% Signup and view all the answers

What is the main problem with the representativeness heuristic?

It assumes that categories are homogeneous Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary reason for base-rate neglect when both base-rate and diagnostic information are provided?

Reliance on the representativeness heuristic Signup and view all the answers

What is an example of covariation with a negative relationship?

Smoking and life expectancy Signup and view all the answers

What is the term for the tendency to seek out evidence that confirms one's beliefs?

Confirmation bias Signup and view all the answers

According to dual-process models, what is the alternative to relying on heuristics in human judgment?

Seeking out more accurate base-rate information Signup and view all the answers

What is the term for the illusion of detecting a covarying relationship when none exists?

Superstition Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary reason why people sometimes rely on heuristics and other times do not?

Context-dependent switching between heuristic and systematic thinking Signup and view all the answers