Climate Hazards and Trends Quiz

Climate Change in the Caribbean

• Multiple climate hazards are affecting the Caribbean, including warm nights, intense rain events, and sea level rise.
• Annual rainfall anomalies have been observed from 1950 to 2022, with significant rise in extreme rainfall since about 1990.
• Observed temperature has increased by 0.15°C–0.2°C per decade in Small Island Developing States (SIDS), with more warm days and nights, and declines in cool days and nights.
• The global proportion of major (Category 3–5) tropical cyclone occurrence has increased over the last four decades.
• Sea level is rising and accelerating, with an average rate of 3.7 mm/yr between 2006 and 2018, and a Caribbean rate of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr for 1993-2019.

Climate Models and Scenarios

• Climate models include Global Climate Models, Regional Climate Models, and Statistical Downscaling models.
• Scenarios for future climate include Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
• When examining maps/graphs of future climate, it's essential to consider the model used, its suitability for small islands, and the scenarios employed.

Future Climate Change in the Caribbean

• The Caribbean can expect even drier conditions, hotter times, and higher sea levels, with up to 1 m by century's end.
• Temperatures may rise by up to 3-4 degrees by century's end, with 30-98% of days annually being 'hot' by the 2090s, and only 2% being 'cool' by the 2080s.
• Rainfall variability is expected to decrease, with shorter rainy seasons and longer, more severe droughts.
• Some models predict significant annual increases of 2–8 tropical cyclones (TCs) by 2070–2090, while others suggest declines in TC frequency.

Global Impact of Climate Change

• Climate change is already affecting every inhabited region across the globe, with human influence contributing to many observed changes in weather and climate extremes.
• Ocean acidification has increased globally, and the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves have increased in some areas of the Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans.