Classical Linear Regression Model Assumptions
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Questions and Answers

What does the assumption E(ut) = 0 imply in a classical linear regression model?

  • The errors average out to zero (correct)
  • The errors have a non-zero mean
  • The errors are independent of the predictors
  • The errors are normally distributed

What is the potential consequence of violating the assumption var(ut) = σ² < ∞?

  • The model will definitely produce correct forecasts
  • The test statistics may not follow the expected distributions (correct)
  • The estimates of standard errors will be consistent
  • The model's coefficient estimates could become biased

Which of the following tests specifically addresses autocorrelation in regression residuals?

  • Jarque-Bera test
  • Breusch-Pagan test
  • Shapiro-Wilk test
  • Durbin-Watson test (correct)

What is one possible effect of ignoring a violation of the assumption cov(ut, xt) = 0?

<p>Parameter estimates may be biased (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which statement accurately defines the normality assumption in a regression model?

<p>The residuals are normally distributed (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is a step in testing for heteroscedasticity in regression residuals?

<p>Plotting residuals against fitted values (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What might be an advantage of using a dynamic model in econometrics?

<p>They account for time-dependent patterns in data (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the Breusch-Godfrey test specifically diagnose?

<p>The presence of autocorrelation (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What conclusion can be drawn when both the F - and χ 2 tests indicate no evidence of heteroscedasticity?

<p>The results are ambiguous regarding heteroscedasticity. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which regression option needs to be selected in EViews to obtain heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors?

<p>Heteroskedasticity consistent coefficient variance. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What effect do heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors typically have on the parameter estimates?

<p>They remain identical to those from ordinary standard errors. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does Assumption 3 of the CLRM state regarding the error terms?

<p>The covariance between error terms is zero. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the implication of positive autocorrelation in residuals?

<p>Positive residuals tend to follow positive residuals. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the Durbin-Watson (DW) test specifically test for?

<p>Independence of error terms over time. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of autocorrelation, what does a plot showing no pattern in residuals indicate?

<p>Absence of autocorrelation. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following indicates evidence of negative autocorrelation?

<p>Residuals alternate between positive and negative values. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens to the p-values when comparing heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors to ordinary standard errors?

<p>P-values become smaller. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When testing for autocorrelation, what is plotted to assess the relationship between current and previous residuals?

<p>Residual plot against its lagged values. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What effect does a high p-value have on the evidence of heteroscedasticity?

<p>Does not support the presence of heteroscedasticity. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the test statistic formula for DW primarily assess?

<p>Change in residuals over observations. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens to OLS estimators in the presence of heteroscedasticity?

<p>They remain unbiased but are no longer BLUE. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When heteroscedasticity is ignored, what is most likely affected?

<p>The standard errors of the coefficients. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does a significance test statistic of TR² = 28 indicate regarding the null hypothesis?

<p>Reject the null hypothesis. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which method can be used to adjust for known heteroscedasticity in a regression model?

<p>Generalised Least Squares (GLS) (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What effect does heteroscedasticity typically have on the slope standard errors when its variance is positively related to an explanatory variable?

<p>They are too low. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the use of heteroscedasticity-consistent standard error estimates do for hypothesis testing?

<p>Makes testing more conservative. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the consequence of using OLS under conditions of heteroscedasticity?

<p>The standard errors may be misleading. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one method suggested for transforming variables to deal with heteroscedasticity?

<p>Taking logarithms of the variables. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the variance of errors relate when applying GLS with the specific form var(ut) = σ²zt²?

<p>It becomes homoscedastic. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which option best describes the relationship between heteroscedasticity and OLS standard errors for the intercept?

<p>They are typically too high. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How can the residuals help identify heteroscedasticity?

<p>They should have systematically changing variability. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens when a researcher applies OLS yet the errors are inversely related to an explanatory variable?

<p>Slope standard errors will be too low. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a common problem faced when trying to identify the exact cause of heteroscedasticity?

<p>Researchers are typically unsure of the exact cause. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What distribution does the LM test statistic follow in the context of regression diagnostic tests?

<p>Chi-squared distribution (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one reason why R-squared values may be meaningless when the regression does not include a constant term?

<p>The mean of the dependent variable will not equal the mean of the fitted values. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which test is a commonly used method for detecting heteroscedasticity in regression?

<p>Goldfeld-Quandt test (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Under the null hypothesis of heteroscedasticity tests like Goldfeld-Quandt, what is assumed about the variances?

<p>The variances of the disturbances are equal. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the Wald test statistic follow in terms of distribution?

<p>F-distribution (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the Goldfeld-Quandt test, how are the two residual variances calculated?

<p>By estimating the regression model on two sub-samples. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a potential drawback of the Goldfeld-Quandt test?

<p>It is contingent on the choice of where to split the sample. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What phenomenon is observed when the variance of the errors changes over time?

<p>ARCH (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the consequence of forcing a regression line through the origin by omitting the constant term?

<p>It introduces bias in the slope coefficient estimate. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Under the assumptions detailed for regression analysis, what is homoscedasticity?

<p>The errors have constant variance. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens to the equivalence of the LM and Wald tests as the sample size increases?

<p>They become equivalent. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT a reason for using diagnostic tests in regression models?

<p>To solely predict future values. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of residual analysis for heteroscedasticity, what kind of plot is generally used?

<p>Residuals plotted against one of the explanatory variables. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements is true regarding the implications of heteroscedasticity in a regression model?

<p>It violates the assumption of constant variance. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does a Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic value less than the lower critical value indicate?

<p>There is positive autocorrelation (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT a condition for the Durbin-Watson test to be valid?

<p>The regressors must be stochastic (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If the DW statistic value is equal to 4, what does that suggest about the residuals?

<p>There is perfect negative autocorrelation (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What would be the implication if the DW statistic is found between the upper and lower critical values?

<p>No significant autocorrelation is presumed (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the numerator of the DW test statistic help identify in regression errors?

<p>The correlation between errors over time (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of these statistics follows an irregular distribution, making it difficult to classify autocorrelation?

<p>Durbin-Watson statistic (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the acceptable value range for the DW statistic to conclude no autocorrelation exists?

<p>Between 1.42 and 1.57 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the Breusch-Godfrey test assess in comparison to the Durbin-Watson test?

<p>Autocorrelation of multiple lagged values (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the example given, what conclusion can be drawn if the DW statistic value is 0?

<p>Residuals are positively autocorrelated (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which term is used to refer to the presence of errors in regression that are correlated across time periods?

<p>Autocorrelation (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does a positive autocorrelation in the errors indicate about the model's residuals?

<p>Errors tend to follow a consistent pattern (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the general hypothesis test structure used in Breusch-Godfrey test for autocorrelation?

<p>H0: ρ1 = 0 and ρ2 = 0, H1: At least one ρ ≠ 0 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why must the conditions for using the DW test be strictly adhered to?

<p>To avoid biases toward indicating no autocorrelation (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

E(ut) = 0

The expected value of the error term is zero. This means that the errors are not systematically biased in either direction and average out to zero over the sample.

var(ut) = σ² < ∞

The variance of the error term is constant and finite. This ensures that the errors are not consistently large or small and that their spread is stable.

cov(ui, uj) = 0

The covariance between any two error terms is zero. This means that the errors for different observations are not correlated, ensuring that the model adequately captures independent variations in the data.

cov(ut, xt) = 0

The covariance between the error term and any explanatory variable is zero. This ensures that the errors are truly independent of the factors used to predict the dependent variable.

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ut ~ N(0,σ²)

The error term is assumed to follow a normal distribution with a mean of zero and a constant variance. This assumption allows for the use of statistical tests and confidence intervals for the estimated coefficients.

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Heteroscedasticity

Heteroscedasticity occurs when the variance of the error term is not constant across observations. This means the error term is wider at some points and narrower at others on the regression line.

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Autocorrelation

Autocorrelation occurs when the error terms are correlated across different observations. This can happen when there is a pattern or trend in the errors, causing them to influence each other.

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Consequences of Violating CLRM Assumptions

Violations of the assumptions of the Classical Linear Regression Model (CLRM) can lead to unreliable coefficient estimates, incorrect standard errors, and inappropriate hypothesis testing. This can significantly impact the validity and accuracy of the model results.

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Homoscedasticity Test

A statistical test that examines whether the variance of the errors in a regression model is constant across all observations. It assumes that the variance of the errors is constant (homoscedasticity).

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ARCH Test (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity)

A statistical test that examines whether the variance of the errors in a regression model changes over time. It is used to detect changes in the variance of the errors in a regression model over time.

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Heteroscedasticity Test

A statistical test used to examine whether the variance of the errors in a regression model is the same across different groups or populations. It compares the variances of the errors in different groups.

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Residual Plot

A graphical method used to visualize and detect potential heteroscedasticity. It involves plotting the residuals (the differences between the actual values and the predicted values) against one of the explanatory variables.

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Goldfeld-Quandt Test

A statistical test used to examine whether the variance of the errors in a regression model is the same across different sub-samples of data. It involves splitting the data into two or more sub-samples.

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White Test

A statistical test used to examine whether the variance of the errors in a regression model is related to an observable variable. It involves regressing the squared residuals on the observable variable.

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F-test

A statistical test that examines whether all the coefficients in a multiple linear regression model are simultaneously equal to zero. It is used to test the overall significance of the regression model.

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t-test

A statistical test that examines whether any individual coefficient in a multiple linear regression model is statistically significant.

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LM test (Lagrange Multiplier test)

A statistical test that tests the null hypothesis that the regression coefficients are equal to zero. It examines whether the explanatory variables have a significant linear relationship with the dependent variable.

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Wald Test

A statistical test that examines whether the relationship between the dependent variable and any individual explanatory variable is statistically significant.

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Joint Significance Test

A statistical test that examines whether the relationship between the dependent variable and all the explanatory variables is statistically significant. It is performed when multiple explanatory variables are included in the model.

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Independence Assumption

The assumption that the errors in a regression model are independent of each other. It means that the error term in one observation does not affect the error term in any other observation.

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Normality Assumption

The assumption that the errors in a regression model are normally distributed with a mean of zero. It helps facilitate hypothesis testing and confidence interval construction.

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Homoscedasticity Assumption

The assumption that the errors in a regression model have a constant variance. It implies that the variability of the predicted values remains the same across all levels of the explanatory variables.

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Multicollinearity Test

A regression diagnostic test used to determine if any of the variables are correlated with each other, which can affect the accuracy of the regression model.

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Linearity Test

A statistical test used to examine whether the relationship between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables is linear. It is used when the linearity assumption is violated.

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Heteroscedasticity Test

A statistical test that specifically addresses the assumption of homoscedasticity. It examines whether the variance of the errors changes based on any external factors or characteristics of the data.

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Generalised Least Squares (GLS)

A technique used to estimate regression coefficients when the error terms are heteroscedastic. GLS transforms the data to make the error variances equal, allowing for more efficient estimates.

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Breusch-Pagan Test

A test used to determine if there is evidence of heteroscedasticity in a regression model. It involves regressing the squared residuals on the explanatory variables.

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Weighted Least Squares (WLS)

A method for correcting heteroscedasticity by transforming the data. It involves dividing each observation by a value related to the heteroscedasticity, often to make the error variances equal.

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Heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors (HCSE)

A general term used to indicate estimates of the variance of the regression coefficients that have been adjusted to account for heteroscedasticity.

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Auxiliary Regression

A method to test for heteroscedasticity by creating a new regression using the squared residuals from the original regression. This allows for checking if the variance of errors is related to the explanatory variables.

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Homoscedasticity

A statistical assumption that the variance of the error term is constant across all observations. This is one of the key assumptions underlying the Classical Linear Regression Model (CLRM).

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Coefficient Variance Formula

The formula used to calculate the variance of the regression coefficients. It assumes homoscedasticity, and if not, the resulting standard errors can be incorrect.

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Linear Regression Model

A type of regression model where the relationship between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables is assumed to be linear.

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Homoskedastic Model

A model that assumes that the error term has a constant variance across observations.

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Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)

An estimation method used to estimate the parameters of a regression model, often used when the error terms are homoscedastic. It minimizes the sum of squared residuals to obtain estimates for the coefficients.

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Regression Analysis

A method for analyzing the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. It uses statistical techniques to identify patterns and relationships in data.

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Non-Linear Regression Model

A type of regression model where the relationship between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables is assumed to be non-linear.

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Error Term (ut)

The error term in a regression model represents the difference between the actual value of the dependent variable and the value predicted by the model. It captures the random and unexplained variations in the data.

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Classical Linear Regression Model (CLRM) Assumptions

A set of assumptions that are typically made about the error term in a regression model, including the assumption of homoscedasticity. These assumptions are crucial for the validity of the regression results.

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What is heteroscedasticity?

Heteroscedasticity occurs when the variance of the error term is not constant across different observations in a regression model. This means the spread or variability of the errors changes at different points on the regression line.

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What is autocorrelation?

Autocorrelation occurs when the error terms in a time series regression model are correlated with each other across different time periods. This means the errors exhibit a pattern or dependence on previous errors, rather than being independent.

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What is the Durbin-Watson (DW) test?

A test for first-order autocorrelation, checking for a relationship between an error and its immediately preceding value. The Durbin-Watson test statistic is calculated using the residuals from the regression analysis.

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How is the Durbin-Watson test statistic calculated?

The Durbin-Watson test statistic is a measure of autocorrelation between consecutive error terms in a time series regression model. It is calculated as the ratio of the sum of squared differences of residuals over the sum of squared residuals.

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What are the hypotheses of the Durbin-Watson test?

The null hypothesis of the Durbin-Watson test states that there is no autocorrelation, meaning the error terms are independent. The alternative hypothesis states that there is autocorrelation, meaning the error terms are dependent on each other.

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How do we interpret the results of the Durbin-Watson test?

The p-value of the Durbin-Watson test indicates the probability of observing the calculated test statistic if there were actually no autocorrelation in the data. A low p-value suggests evidence of autocorrelation.

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What is the auxiliary regression method?

The auxiliary regression method is used to test for heteroscedasticity in a regression model. It involves regressing the squared residuals from the original regression model on the explanatory variables from the original regression model.

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What is the White test?

The White test is a popular test for heteroscedasticity. It involves running an auxiliary regression and using the F-statistic from that regression to test if the variance of the errors is constant.

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What is the Breusch-Pagan test?

The Breusch-Pagan test, another method to detect heteroscedasticity, involves a regression of the squared residuals from the original regression model on the explanatory variables and their squares and cross-products.

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What are heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors?

Heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors are adjusted standard errors that account for the presence of heteroscedasticity in the model. They are more reliable in situations where the errors have unequal variances.

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What is the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test?

The Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test, a common heteroscedasticity test, is based on an auxiliary regression of the squared residuals on the explanatory variables.

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Why is handling heteroscedasticity important?

The choice of how to handle heteroscedasticity can influence the results of a regression analysis. If heteroscedasticity is present, using heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors can improve the reliability of the estimates.

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How can we handle heteroscedasticity in EViews?

EViews, a widely used econometric software package, allows users to estimate regressions with heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors by checking the 'Heteroskedasticity consistent coefficient variance' box in the equation estimation window.

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What are lagged values in time series analysis?

Lagged values of a variable refer to past values of that variable at different time periods. For example, the lagged value of a variable at time t-1 is its value in the previous period.

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Why is understanding lagged values important?

The concept of lagged values is crucial for understanding and testing for autocorrelation, especially in time series analysis. It allows us to examine the relationships between errors at different points in time.

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Variance of the residuals

The sum of squared residuals divided by (T-1), where T is the number of observations.

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Durbin-Watson (DW) test

A test for autocorrelation in the residuals of a linear regression model.

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Sum of squared differences in residuals

The numerator of the DW statistic, calculated as the sum of squared differences between consecutive residuals.

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DW statistic as a function of ρˆ

An approximate function of the estimated autocorrelation coefficient (ρˆ) of the residuals.

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ρˆ (estimated autocorrelation coefficient)

The estimated correlation coefficient between the error term at time t and its lagged value at time t-1.

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Null hypothesis (H0) for DW test

The hypothesis that there is no autocorrelation in the residuals of a linear regression model.

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Alternative hypothesis (H1) for DW test

The hypothesis that there is autocorrelation in the residuals of a linear regression model.

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Upper and lower critical values (dL and dU)

The critical values for the DW test that define the rejection regions.

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ρˆ (estimated autocorrelation coefficient)

The estimated value of ρˆ based on an estimation of the regression model.

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Breusch-Godfrey test

A test that examines the relationship between the error term at time t and multiple lagged values.

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Error model for Breusch-Godfrey test

The model for the errors under the Breusch-Godfrey test, where the current error term is represented as a linear combination of its lagged values and a random term.

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Null hypothesis (H0) for Breusch-Godfrey test

The null hypothesis for the Breusch-Godfrey test, where the current error term is independent of its lagged values.

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Alternative hypothesis (H1) for Breusch-Godfrey test

The alternative hypothesis for the Breusch-Godfrey test, where the current error term is related to at least one of its lagged values.

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Conditions for validity of DW test

The conditions that must be met for the DW test to be applicable.

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Model eligible for DW test

A regression model with a constant term, non-stochastic regressors, and no lags of the dependent variable.

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Study Notes

Classical Linear Regression Model Assumptions and Diagnostic Tests

  • Five assumptions underpin the classical linear regression model (CLRM) to ensure ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation's desirable properties and validity of hypothesis tests. These include:

    • Expected value of the error term (ut) is zero (E(ut) = 0).
    • Variance of the error term is constant and finite (var(ut) = σ2 < ∞).
    • Covariance between any two error terms is zero (cov(ui, uj) = 0).
    • Covariance between the error term and explanatory variables is zero (cov(ut, xt) = 0).
    • Error term follows a normal distribution (ut ~ N(0, σ2)).
  • Violations of these assumptions can lead to several problems:

    • Incorrect coefficient estimates (β̂s).
    • Incorrect standard errors.
    • Invalid test statistic distributions.

Diagnostic Tests

  • Diagnostic (misspecification) tests calculate a test statistic.
    • Common approaches include the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test and Wald test, both asymptotically equivalent but with slightly different small-sample results.
      • LM test statistics follow a chi-squared distribution (χ2) with degrees of freedom (m) equal to the restrictions.
      • Wald test statistics follow an F-distribution with (m, T - k) degrees of freedom.

Assumption 2: Constant Variance (Homoscedasticity)

  • Homoscedasticity assumes the error term's variance is constant.
  • Heteroscedasticity implies varying error variances—a common violation.
  • A graph of residuals against an explanatory variable can illustrate heteroscedasticity. Increasing variance with the variable in the plot clearly depicts heteroscedasticity.

Detecting Heteroscedasticity

  • Visual inspection of residual plots can be unreliable.
  • Formal statistical tests like the Goldfeld-Quandt test are more robust.

Goldfeld--Quandt Test

  • Divides the sample into subsamples (T1, T2).
  • Estimates the regression and calculates residual variances (s12, s22).
  • Assumes equal error variances (H0: σ12 = σ22) and tests for heteroscedasticity using the ratio (GQ) of the variances.
  • Large GQ values lead to heteroscedasticity rejection.

Consequences of Ignoring Heteroscedasticity

  • OLS coefficient estimates remain unbiased and consistent but aren't the Best Linear Unbiased Estimators (BLUE).
  • OLS standard errors are incorrect, resulting in misleading inferences.
    • Intercept standard errors are typically underestimated.
    • Slope standard errors depend on the heteroscedasticity form.

Dealing with Heteroscedasticity

  • GLS (Generalized Least Squares) or WLS (Weighted Least Squares) can address known heteroscedasticity patterns.
  • Data transformation (e.g., logs) may reduce the effect of heteroscedasticity.
  • Robust standard error estimates account for heteroscedasticity. A software packages adjustment of the std errors.

Testing for Heteroscedasticity in EViews

  • Residual plots can indicate heteroscedasticity if variability changes systematically over time.

Assumption 3: Zero Covariance (No Autocorrelation)

  • The covariance between error terms across observations (or over time) is zero in the classical linear model.
  • Autocorrelation (serial correlation) indicates correlated error terms.

Detecting Autocorrelation

  • Visual inspection of plots (residuals against lagged residuals, or residuals over time).
  • Positive autocorrelation indicates a pattern of similar signs in successive errors.
  • Negative autocorrelation indicates alternating signs.
  • No pattern represents no autocorrealtion

Durbin-Watson (DW) Test

  • Tests for first-order autocorrelation (correlation between consecutive errors).
  • DW statistic's value depends on the autocorrelation level (positive or negative), which can be inconclusive in some cases.
    • Critical values (dL, dU) help determine rejection or non-rejection regions.

Breusch-Godfrey Test

  • A generalized test for autocorrelation up to a specified order (r).
  • Uses auxiliary regressions and calculated χ2 or F statistics to test for autocorrelation.
  • Assumes no relationship between the error term and previous values of errors (H0).

Conditions for Valid DW Test

  • Constant term in the regression.
  • Non-stochastic regressors.
  • No lagged dependent variables in the regression.

Other Key Considerations

  • White's method provides heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors for OLS and helps with appropriate inference in case of heteroscedasticity during regression analysis.

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Description

This quiz covers the five key assumptions that underpin the classical linear regression model (CLRM), essential for the validity of ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. Understand the implications of each assumption and the potential issues arising from their violations. Test your knowledge through diagnostic tests and mis-specification assessments.

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