Session 5 Business Experimentation

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Questions and Answers

What is often relied upon by managers in the absence of sufficient data for decision-making?

  • Experimentation
  • Data analysis
  • Conventional wisdom (correct)
  • Scientific data

What distinguishes a dependent variable from an independent variable in an experiment?

  • The dependent variable is manipulated to observe changes.
  • The independent variable is the one that is measured.
  • The dependent variable is held constant.
  • The independent variable is the presumed cause. (correct)

What is essential for stakeholders before a test is conducted?

  • They must commit to how to proceed post-results. (correct)
  • They should advocate for using conventional wisdom.
  • They must agree on the manipulation of variables.
  • They should evaluate the control group for reliability.

Which of the following is NOT a consideration for companies when determining the value of an experiment?

<p>Deciding on product pricing (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When is it typically concluded that an experiment is necessary?

<p>When the potential outcome is uncertain. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is implied as a risk in relying solely on experienced-based decision-making?

<p>It may overlook relevant variables. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which component is critical to ensure reliable experimental results?

<p>Keeping all other potential causes constant. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What methodological approach is suggested to resolve debates on potential innovations?

<p>Performing rigorous experiments. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was Kohl's primary concern that led to testing different store hours?

<p>Decreasing operating costs (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is essential for ensuring the reliability of an experiment?

<p>Addressing the specific questions posed (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What important factor did many companies overlook before conducting experiments, according to the content?

<p>The commitment of stakeholders (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What hypothesis did Kohl's test in relation to store operations?

<p>Opening stores later would not affect sales (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What can be inferred about the methodology of the experiment conducted by Kohl's?

<p>It lacked a clear purpose initially (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one question companies should ask themselves before running a business experiment?

<p>Is the experiment easily executable? (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best reflects the significance of pre-experimentations questions?

<p>They assure that the experiment aligns with strategic goals. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of these elements is critical for maximizing the value of the experiment?

<p>Thoroughly analyzing the results (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the primary reason for Johnson's departure from Penney after 17 months?

<p>The retailer's sales had drastically decreased and losses had increased. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What limitation does big data have in the context of predicting customer behavior?

<p>It can only indicate past customer actions and not future reactions. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the absence of sufficient data, what do most managers tend to rely on for decision making?

<p>Their own experience and intuition. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the term 'bold changes' in the context likely refer to?

<p>Drastic shifts in business strategy or operations. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is implied about Penney's use of transaction data?

<p>It only highlighted demographics without actionable insights. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the phrase 'did an about-face' suggest about Penney's approach after Johnson's exit?

<p>It resumed its previous sales tactics before Johnson's tenure. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What challenge do managers face when attempting to innovate, based on the content provided?

<p>Insufficient empirical data to guide their decisions. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was a significant consequence of the decisions made under Johnson's leadership?

<p>Substantial losses and eventual job loss for Johnson. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary benefit of value engineering as applied by Petco?

<p>To maximize the return on investment (ROI) by selecting only beneficial components. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

During the promotional testing, what specific aspect of advertising was questioned for its effectiveness?

<p>The training of the store staff. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of the experiments conducted by Petco, what does the term 'disentangle' refer to?

<p>To analyze mixed results to identify separate contributing factors. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the unexpected result of the 20%-off promotion observed by the retailer?

<p>A 5% lift in sales that could not be fully attributed to the promotion. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What confusion arose regarding the restaurants' lighting standards?

<p>Store managers were not adhering to the company's lighting guidelines. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was one likely reason customers thought the restaurants were closed?

<p>Inadequate use of bright lighting technologies. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role does experimenting with various promotional components play for retailers?

<p>It aids in determining which components yield the best ROI. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the 5% lift in sales signify for the retailer?

<p>Sales increased, but other factors should be considered. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What factor is primarily considered by Finance when approving significant expenditures?

<p>The presence of positive experiment results (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the average annual sales of QwikMart stores?

<p>$1 million (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How many tests did Petco perform in the past before reducing the number?

<p>100 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one major aspect that the experiments must address according to the content?

<p>The contribution to the company’s overall strategy (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following stores has higher average annual sales?

<p>FastMart (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What concept does Frank Maggio emphasize regarding project reviews?

<p>Having test results to streamline the process (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one variable that affects store sales apart from the store name?

<p>The physical size of the store (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What reduction was made in the number of tests conducted by Petco?

<p>From 100 to 75 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the initial result of Kohl's decision to delay the opening of its stores?

<p>A decrease in overall sales (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the analysis of big data allow companies to do?

<p>Test their assumptions regarding operational variables (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What misconception can arise from relying solely on correlation data?

<p>That certain products are less profitable than they are (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What crucial factor did the experiment with Cracker Barrel highlight regarding understanding business performance?

<p>The necessity of understanding causality in sales (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is it important for executives to understand causality rather than just correlation?

<p>To avoid making poorly informed decisions (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Throughout the experimentation process, what remained stable for Kohl's despite the drop in total sales?

<p>The number of customer transactions (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What did the careful analysis of data generated by experiments allow companies to uncover?

<p>The actual causal relationship between variables (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What can be a consequence of companies lacking a fundamental understanding of causality?

<p>Fragmentary comprehension of operational dynamics (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Clear Purpose of Experiment

A clear and focused reason for conducting an experiment. It addresses specific questions about proposed actions.

Hypothesis

A statement that can be tested through an experiment. It proposes a relationship between variables.

Experiment Doability

The process of determining if an experiment can be practically conducted considering resources and feasibility.

Experiment Reliability

Ensuring that the experiment's design and execution minimize bias and maximize accuracy.

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Experiment Value

Evaluating the experiment's worth by considering whether it provided valuable insights and data.

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Commitment to Results

The commitment by stakeholders to accept and act upon the results of the experiment, regardless of the outcome.

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SMART Objective

A specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) objective for an experiment.

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Business Experiment Checklist

A list of key questions and considerations to ensure a successful business experiment.

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Bold Changes

The practice of making significant and unexpected alterations or shifts in strategies, approaches, or products. In business, it involves exploring new ideas and implementing novel solutions.

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Transaction Data

The information gathered from past customer interactions and transactions. This data can reveal patterns in buying behavior, preferences, and trends.

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Operating in a World of Insufficient Data

The ability to make good decisions without relying solely on complete information. This often involves using intuition, experience, and judgment.

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Intuition

A deep-seated feeling or understanding that provides guidance, especially when there's limited information. It can be a powerful tool for making decisions in uncertain situations.

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Big Data Limitations

The act of using data to understand past customer behaviors, but recognizing its limitations in predicting future reactions to new initiatives.

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Innovation

The process of creating something new or different, usually involving a shift in strategies, products, or approaches.

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Experience-Based Decisions

The reliance on personal experience and past knowledge when making decisions, particularly in situations where data is limited.

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About-face

The act of significantly changing direction or course, often in response to changing circumstances or new information.

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Data-Free Decisions

When leaders lack solid data to make decisions about new ideas, they often rely on personal experience, gut feelings, or common knowledge, which might not be reliable.

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Rigorous Scientific Test

A controlled test where the impact of a specific factor (the cause) is measured by observing changes in a related outcome (the effect), while keeping other potential causes constant.

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Experiment's Purpose

Before starting an experiment, it's crucial to define a clear and specific goal, addressing a crucial question about the proposed innovation.

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Experiment Evaluation

After conducting an experiment, reflect on its effectiveness, identifying any shortcomings or areas for improvement in future experiments.

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Value Engineering

A method for evaluating the effectiveness and profitability of different program components by testing various combinations and analyzing the results.

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A/B Testing

A technique used to isolate the impact of specific elements on a program's outcome, such as promotional offers, advertising, or staff training.

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Return on Investment (ROI)

A metric used to assess the profitability of a program by comparing the benefits generated to the costs incurred.

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Control Group

A group in a business experiment that receives the standard treatment or no treatment, used as a baseline for comparison.

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Test Group

A group in a business experiment that receives the new treatment or change being tested.

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Targeted Rollouts

A systematic approach to improving program effectiveness by focusing on the most impactful elements and discarding those with low or negative ROI.

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Retailer's Experiments

A business experiment designed to test and analyze the impact of various program components, including sales, marketing, and operations.

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Disentangling the Effects

The process of identifying and analyzing the factors influencing the outcome of a business experiment, such as promotional offers or staff training.

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Experimentation Process

A process for evaluating new initiatives before launching them, often involving testing and data analysis. Its goal is to ensure projects are aligned with business goals and have a high chance of success.

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Real-World Experimentation

The use of real-world experiments to collect data and inform business decisions. This approach helps leaders see the true impact of a change before implementing it company-wide.

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Experiment Result Analysis

The process of evaluating the results of an experiment to understand what worked, what didn't, and what insights can be applied to future decisions.

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Experiment Alignment with Strategy

The process of ensuring that experiments are aligned with the company's overall strategy and priorities. This helps ensure that the insights gained are valuable to the organization.

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Focused Experimentation

The importance of focusing on specific questions or variables when designing an experiment. This helps keep the experiment focused and ensures that meaningful insights are obtained.

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Acceptance of Experiment Results

The willingness of stakeholders to accept the results of an experiment, regardless of whether they are positive or negative. This enables learning and improvement based on real data.

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Iterative Experimentation

The process of adjusting the experiment design or process based on the results of earlier experiments. This iterative approach allows for continuous learning and improvement.

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Business Experimentation

The practice of using experiments to understand the cause-and-effect relationships between different variables in a business setting.

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Investigating Causality

Analyzing data to determine if a change in one variable directly causes a change in another.

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Correlation

Observing that two variables occur together, but not necessarily proving that one causes the other.

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Study Notes

The Discipline of Business Experimentation

  • Innovation test-drives increase the chances of success.
  • Stefan Thomke and Jim Manzi authored the article.
  • Ron Johnson's experience at J.C. Penney highlights the importance of testing.
  • Big data can only reveal past customer behavior, not future reactions to innovation.
  • Effective business experimentation necessitates rigorous testing.
  • Many companies are hesitant to conduct these tests.
  • Testing new models and concepts is crucial.
  • A/B testing is a relatively simple approach for online businesses, but more complex systems require careful planning and analysis.
  • Most business experimentation is poorly designed.
  • The experiments lack sufficient scientific basis.
  • Businesses need to ask critical questions to maximize the value of their experiments:
    • Does the experiment have a specific objective?
    • Are stakeholders committed to the results?
    • Is the experiment feasible?
    • Can reliable results be ensured?
    • How can the experiment produce the best possible outcome?

Experiment Design

  • Clear purpose is crucial for experiments.
  • Commitment from stakeholders is vital for enacting the results.
  • Practicality dictates the feasibility of experiments.
  • Reliable outcomes require meticulous design.
  • Maximizing value requires evaluating the worth of each experiment element.

Best Practices

  • Matching characteristics between test and control groups ensures reliable experiments.
  • Targeted rollouts optimize the use of resources where benefits will be greatest.
  • Value engineering allows companies to focus components with high return on investment (ROI).
  • Understanding causality helps interpret data effectively.
  • Replicability is critical for ensuring the validity of findings.

Challenging Conventional Wisdom

  • Extensive data gathering and analysis is needed.
  • Resisting established beliefs is often crucial for innovation.
  • Reevaluating business models via experiments can often overturn long-held assumptions.

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