Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability (PDF)

Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective - Understanding socio-spatial dimensions Patrick Sakdapolrak Population Geography and Demography...

Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective - Understanding socio-spatial dimensions Patrick Sakdapolrak Population Geography and Demography [email protected] VO Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective (2024W) 07.10.2024 Seite 2 Seite 3  Website: population.univie.ac.at/ Twitter: @TransForm_Res Facebook: @TransFormResearch Seite 4 Agenda today Part 1 – History of ideas Part 2 – Understanding socio-spatial dimensions (Patrick Sakdapolrak) Content - Different concepts of space in Geography exemplified for the case of LULCC & climate change Aim - Understanding of different socio-spatial perspectives and ist relevance for global change and sustainability Seite 5 Outline Introduction Concepts of space in Geography ◦ Abstract physical space ◦ Scale ◦ Networks ◦ Territory ◦ Place Socio-spatial dimensions of climate change Seite 6 Understanding socio-spatial dimensions of global change and sustainability Introduction Seite 7  I Spray can Corn German Federal Minister for International Development (retired) Examples The Red Thread Man (unknown) uses hair spray ** Thomas Midgley (1889-1944) Inventor of CFC* Molina & Rowland Nobel Laureate (1995)* * Quelle: http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fckw-erfinder-thomas-midgley- fotostrecke-114365-8.html ** Qulle: www.becomegorgeous.com  Hazardous waste pile CFC refrigerators * Der Spiegel February 1992* 10 * Quelle: http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fckw-erfinder-thomas-midgley- The ozone hole* fotostrecke-114365-8.html Example I – socio-spatial dimensions? Place Scale 11  Anthropogenic caused CO2 emission through use of fossil fuels Petrol pump with biofuel 12 Corn - basic material for E10 Super E10 * Quelle: http://www.derwesten.de/auto/rueckspiegel-tankt-e10-id4374860.htm laerosols.blogspot.com; ; www.opelz-blog.de  http://www.wiedenroth- karikatur.de/02_WirtKari070706.html 13 Example II - socio-spatial dimensions? Territory Place Network 14  Nationalpark Yasuní Ecuador 15  “Dirk Niebel (German minister of Economic Development) likes this.” A multinational oil company in Yasuní National Park 16 Example III – socio-spatial dimensions? Territory Network Place 17 Aim - Understanding of different socio-spatial perspectives and ist relevance for global change and sustainability Seite 18 What is geography? Seite 19 What is geography? „Something with space“ What is geography? - “earth describing” - Straddles science–social, science–humanities divide - not an armchair science  fieldwork - spatial organization of human activity & of people’s relationships with their environment - recognizing the interdependence among places and regions, without losing sight of the individuality and uniqueness of specific places Source: Mosley et al. 2014, Chapter 1 Seite 21 What is geography? - “earth describing” - Straddles science–social, science–humanities divide - not an armchair science  fieldwork - spatial organization of human activity & of people’s relationships with their environment - recognizing the interdependence among places and regions, without losing sight of the individuality and uniqueness of specific places Source: Mosley et al. 2014, Chapter 1 Seite 22 Concepts of space in geography 1. Abstract physical space / space as a container 2. Scale 3. Networks 4. Territory 5. Place Source: Wardenga (2002): Räume der Geographie und zu Raumbegriffen im Geographieunterricht, GWK Beiträge Wissenschaftliche Nachrichten, 120, 47-52; Jessop, B., N. Brenner and M. Jones 2008: Theorizing socio- spatial relations. – Environment and Planning D: Society and Space 26 (3): 389-401 Seite 23 Land use and land cover change (LULCC) Sources: JohnnyLye | Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto; Kamal Aryal/ICIMOD; Paul_012 | Credit: Flickr; Seite 24 LULCC – Global Trends Seite 25 https://www.tabledebates.org/building-blocks/what-land-use-and-land-use-change Seite 26 1. Abstract physical space / space as a container Socio-spatial dimensions of global change and sustainability Seite 27  Abstract physical space / space as a container Space as an element of physical-material reality Three-dimensional container or "Häferl" in which everything material is embedded Quelle: http://thumbs.werkaandemuur.nl/399ce742b62bb3927120b9a4d71d9df7_950x 600_fit.jpg Seite 28 Quelle: Wardenga 2002; Weichart 2008: 77-78; Bailey 2014: 27-31; Fryetag 2014: 16 Scheme of regional studies Space as a container & LULCC Preservation Exploitation Conservation Seite 29 Source: Mosley et al. 2014, Chapter 1 Space as a container & LULCC Container 1 Exploitation Aerial view of the recently land clearing by PT. Agra Bumi Niaga. Peunaron Village. East Aceh, Indonesia. 13/01/2017 Photo credit: Nanang Sujana/RAN Seite 30 Source: Mosley et al. 2014, Chapter 1 Space as a container & LULCC Container 1 Conservation Photo: https://www.recoftc.org/special-report/communities-improve-landscapes-southeast-asia Seite 31 Source: Mosley et al. 2014, Chapter 1 Space as a container & LULCC Container 1 Preservation / nature conservation Photo: https://geographical.co.uk/people/development/item/1693-mixed-outlook-on-sdgs-for-asia-pacific Seite 32 Source: Mosley et al. 2014, Chapter 1 Space as a container & LULCC Net change in forest area 2015 Source: https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation Seite 33  Soybean Space as a container & LULCC Beef, soy and palm oil are responsible for 60% of tropical deforestation Cattle Source: https://ourworldindata.org/soy Palm oil Source: https://ourworldindata.org/palm-oil Robinson TP, Wint GRW, Conchedda G, Van Boeckel TP, Ercoli V, Palamara E, et al. (2014) Mapping the Global Distribution of Livestock. PLoS ONE 9(5): e96084. Seite 34 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0096084 What are the drivers of tropical deforestation? Seite 35 2. Scale Socio-spatial dimensions of global change and sustainability Seite 36 Scale - Scale as size - Scale as level - Politics of scale / scale as relation [Scale in cartography: distance on the map in relation to the distance on the surface of Earth] https://img.scoop.it/AFhqQNW8ncZtJnnRnP3_uTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBVvK0kTmF0xjctABnaLJIm9 Seite 37 Scale & LULCC Container space - forest Seite 38 Source: Mosley et al. 2014, Chapter 1 Scale & LULCC Seite 39 Source: Mosley et al. 2014, Chapter 1 Scale & LULCC Exploitation at the scale of the plot Seite 40 Source: Mosley et al. 2014, Chapter 1 Scale & LULCC Conservation at the scale of the forest E.g. formular: forest area/age to maturity 150 hectares / 30 years  5 hectares / year harvested and replanted Seite 41 Source: Mosley et al. 2014, Chapter 1 Scale & LULCC Conservation at the scale of the forest E.g. formular: forest area/age to maturity 150 hectares / 30 years  5 hectares / year harvested and replanted Seite 42 Source: Mosley et al. 2014, Chapter 1 Scale & LULCC III Conservation at the scale of the forest Seite 43 Source: Mosley et al. 2014, Chapter 1 Scale & LULCC Origin of the sustainability idea - ICLEI Sustainable forest management Seite 44  Seite 45 https://ourworldindata.org/global-deforestation-peak Scale & LULCC Shifting cultivation in North Thailand Photo: Sakdapolrak 2018 Seite 46 Scale & LULCC Shifting cultivation in North Thailand Photo: Sakdapolrak 2018 Seite 47 3. Network Socio-spatial dimensions of global change and sustainability Seite 48  Networks Connections between multiple nodes Connectedness created through the exchange and transfer of tangible and intangible resource flows The global flow of people Quelle: Sander et al. 2014 Seite 49 Quelle: Wardenga 2002; Weichart 2008: 77-78 Networks & LULCC Conservation at the scale of the forest Seite 50 Networks & LULCC Preservation at the local scale Seite 51 Networks & LULCC Preservation at the local scale  subsidized by exploitation at a distant site „Land-use displacement“ Seite 52 Networks & LULCC Example for land-use displacement National logging ban in Vietnam and its impact on neighboring countries Seite 53 Source: https://www.rfa.org/english/news/cambodia/vietnam-still-smuggling-timber-from-cambiodia-despite-ban-ngo-investigation-finds-05082017170810.html; P Meyfroidt, EF Lambin (2009) Forest transition in Vietnam and displacement of deforestation abroad, PNAS, 106 (38), 16139 –16144 Networks & LULCC Cattle pasture, deforestation and international beef trade Source: https://maaproject.org/2021/amazon-hotspots-2020-final/; https://resourcetrade.earth/?year=2019&exporter=76&category=78&units=value&autozoom=1 Seite 54 Networks & LULCC Large-scale land aquisition / land grabbing Large scale land acquisition (in 1000 hectares) Sold farmland in % of total cultivated land State and private investors 2012 Source: https://www.globalagriculture.org/fileadmin/_processed_/csm_Map withouttitlebig_820e5da2d2.jpg; https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/foreign-investors-are- buying-up-farmland-in-third-world-a-884306.html#bild-dc317c58- 0001-0004-0000-000000463057 Seite 55 Networks & LULCC - Tele-coupling Changes in agriculture production through embeddeness in commodity markets in North Thailand „Tele-coupling“ Seite 56 Photo: Sakdapolrak 2019 4. Territory Socio-spatial dimensions of global change and sustainability Seite 57  Territory Section of the earth, which is outlined by boundaries and over which an actor exercises control Grenzsicherung zwischen San Diego (links) und Tijuana (rechts) Quelle: https://machineproject.com/build/engine/wp- content/uploads/2017/07/Screen-Shot-2017-07-19-at-12.03.26-PM.png Seite 58 Territory & LULCC https://www.protectedplanet.net/en Seite 59 Territory & LULCC - Fortress conservation GUARD MOUNT ON MAMMOTH PARADE GROUND, NATIONAL HOTEL IN BACKGROUND. "2nd Lt. Johnathan M. Wainwright Officer of day/1st U.S. Cavalry" https://www.nhpr.org/environment/2020-11-07/outside-in-the- problem-with-fortress-conservation Soldiers from Fort Yellowstone, posing with captured buffalo heads after apprehending a poacher. Seite 60 Territory & LULCC - Fortress conservation Kenya Wildlife Service Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya Huai Nam Dang Nationalpark in Mae Hong Son, Thailand Seite 61 Photo credit: Sakdapolrak 2011; Sakdapolrak 2016; http://karibu.mambozuri.com/wp- content/uploads/2018/08/4547959_cywj8lew8aal9zb_jpeg7890adce0b0912d94873d1c7cf99dafb.jpg Territory & LULCC - Fortress conservation Discursive construction of nature Seite 62 Seite 63 Territory & LULCC Shifting cultivation in North Thailand Photo: Sakdapolrak 2019 Seite 64 Place Socio-spatial dimensions of global change and sustainability Seite 65  Place Section of the earth's surface - but not static and limited Created by connections - junction of flows and articulation of social relations Community forest in North Thailand Seite 66 Quelle: Sakdapolrak 2010 Place and LULCC - Community based forest Management in Thailand 67  การสร้ างการยอมรับจากภายนอก จัดการเงิน ร่ วมทํา จัดการงาน ร่ วมคิด สหกรณ์ การเกษตรยังยืนแม่ ทา จํากัด ร่ วมแก้ ไขปัญหา สถาบันพัฒนาทรั พยากรและ ฯลฯ ร่ วมรับผลประโยชน์ วัด เกษตรกรรมยังยืนแม่ ทา กลุ่ม กลุ่ม สร้ างอัตลักษณ์ และอิสระภาพ เยาวชน แม่บา้ น ชุ มชนจัดการตนเอง กลุ่ม โรงเรี ยน ผูส้ ู งอายุ อนามัย ปกครอง อบต. ผสานนโยบายรัฐ กํานัน การกระจายอํานาจ ผูใ้ หญ่บา้ น ผูใ้ หญ่บา้ น ผูใ้ หญ่บา้ น ผูใ้ หญ่บา้ น ผูช้ ่วยฯ ผูช้ ่วยฯ การให้ บทบาท เขตพัฒนา เขตพัฒนา เขตพัฒนา เขตพัฒนา การบริหารจัดการตําบล ประชาธิปไตยภาคประชาชน การสร้ างการมีส่วนร่ วม จัดการคน Spatial dimension of climate change Seite 69 Spatial dimension of climate change Annual emission – global scale Annual global temperatures from 1850-2017 https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions Spatial dimension of climate change Annual emission – national scale China 10.17 billion tons USA 5.28 billion tons Austria 68.5 million tons Seite 71 https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions?country= Spatial dimension of climate change Cummulative emission – national scale Share of global cumulative CO2- emission China 219 billion tons USA 410 billion tons Source: OurworldinData 2020 (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-cumulative-co2) Seite 72 Spatial dimension of climate change Climate change WorldRiskIndex vulnerability Seite 73 Source: https://weltrisikobericht.de/weltrisikobericht-2021-e/ Climate justice Seite 74 Spatial dimension of climate change Annual emission – individual scale Spatial dimension of climate change Annual emission – individual scale by income Per capita and absolute CO2 consumption emissions by four global income groups in 2015 Source: Emmissions Gap Report 2020; https://theconversation.com/private-planes-mansions- and-superyachts-what-gives-billionaires-like-musk-and- abramovich-such-a-massive-carbon-footprint-152514 Seite 76  Consumption-based CO2 emission Spatial dimension of climate change - Networks Production-based / territorial based CO2 emission Seite 77 Souorce: https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2 Spatial dimension of climate change - Networks Imported vs. exported emissions by country and sector Balance of CO2 emissions embodied in imports and exports of the largest net importing/exporting countries (and Middle East region). Colors represent trade in finished goods by industry sector. Traded intermediate goods (gray) are those used by industries in the importing country to meet consumer demand for domestic goods. nec, “not elsewhere classified.” Seite 78 Davis, S. J., & Caldeira, K. (2010). Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(12), 5687-5692. Spatial dimension of climate change - Networks Production based Consumption based per capita emission per capita emission Seite 79 Spatial dimension of climate change - Place Source: https://nachhaltigerkonsum.info/service/news/neue-darstellung-des-co2-fussabdrucks-nutzbar; https://theconversation.com/5-charts-show-how- Seite 80 your-household-drives-up-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-119968 Wrap up 1. Abstract physical space / space as a container 2. Scale 3. Networks 4. Territory 5. Place Seite 81 Literature Text books 83 Journals 84 Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective - Understanding socio-spatial dimensions Patrick Sakdapolrak Population Geography and Demography [email protected] VO Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective (2024W) 07.10.2024 290043 VO Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective 14.10.2024, Mo 9:45-13:00, Hörsaal II Lecturers: Prof. Dr. Stephan Glatzel Dr. Philipp Marr Prof. Dr. Patrick Sakdapolrak (course coodinator) Prof. Dr. Michaela Trippl Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective Monday, 09:45 – 13:15 h, Hörsaal 2 Date Content Overview 07.10.2024 - Idea history, basic terms, systematizations (P. Marr) - Spatial perspectives - Space, location, scale, network (P. Sakdapolrak) Block 1 In Depth 14.10.2024 - Theoretical perspective (Physiogeography) (S. Glatzel) - Theoretical perspective (Humangeography) (P. Sakdapolrak) 21.10.2024 - Population and Environment (P. Sakdapolrak) - Migration and Global Environmental Change (P. Sakdapolrak) 28.10.2024 -Environment and Sustainability I (S. Glatzel) -Environment and Sustainability II (P. Marr) Block 2 04.11.2024 - Geoecology (S. Glatzel) - Earth Surface Dynamics (P. Marr) 11.11.2024 - Economy and Sustainability (M. Trippl) - Socio-Economic Dynamics (M. Trippl) Exam 18.11.2024 Exam 2 Theoretical perspectives (Physiogeography) Prof. Dr. Stephan Glatzel 3 Theoretical perspectives Physiogeography Key concepts: Systems approach… in Geomorphology in Geoecology 4 Systems approach… in Geomorphology 5  Interactions in terrestrial systems Process Form Material © Angelika Riegler (New Zealand field trip 2010) Southern Alps / New Zealand „Systems“ Etymology: From Latin word systēma, in turn from Greek σύστημα systēma: "whole compounded of several parts or members, system", literary "composition“ Some common characteristics: A system has structure, it contains parts (or components) that are directly or indirectly related to each other; A system has behavior, it contains processes that transform inputs into outputs (material, energy or data); A system has interconnectivity: the parts and processes are connected by structural and/or behavioral relationships. A system's structure and behavior may be decomposed via subsystems and sub-processes to elementary parts and process steps. Wikipedia.org 7 „System mechanisms“ Transport (transfer): Transmission of units relevant for the respective system (energy, material), active and passive, source and sink Transformation: Qualitative change Storage: Material and energy can be stored in pools 8  Earth System Science …… ?? Hugget (2003), p.42 9 History of Science Aristoteles, Herodotus, Seneca => River valleys, deltas, relation between earthquakes and deformations on earth – BUT: Only single observations James Hutton 1726-1797 (1785): The Earth Surface was formed by water John Playfair (1802): Prof. for Mathematics and friend of Hutton: 'Illustrations of the Huttonian Theory of the Earth' Fundamental relations between rivers and valleys Charles Lyell 1797-1875 (1830-1833): Principles of Geology => Formation of Uniformatism 'The present is the key to the past' In contrast to Catastrophism from some geologists Uniformatism - Catastrophism 10 History of Science C.F. Naumann (1850): „Handbuch der Geognosie“ First morphology of the earth surface Karl Gilbert (1877): „Report on the Geology of the Henry Mountains“ => Conflict between erosional - and resistence forces Gilbert, Grove Karl Friedrich Simony (1851 Vienna) – Founder in A Worldwide first Professor focussing on Geomorphology, Freiherr v. Richthofen (1886): Holistic concept 'Führer für Forschungsreisende‘ based on travels in China and North America William Davis (1899 - 1905, 1906) – Erosion cycle Freiherr von Richthofen, Ferdinand 11 Davis – Erosion cycles 12 Zepp, H. (1987): Geomorphologie.- UTB, S. 72 Models of Relief Development Davis Penck King Summerfield M.A. (2000): Geomorphology and Global Tectonics.- John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 367 S. 13 Models of Relief Development Davis Penck Hack Burbank D. W. & Anderson R. S. (2000): Tectonic Geomorphology. - Blackwell Science Inc., 273 S. 14 History of Science Passarge (1904): Influence of former and current climate on terrestrial systems Penck A. (1894 - Vienna): Morphology of the Earth Surface Structuring the earth surface in form elements, first Passarge , Siegfried „systemic“ approach Penck & Brückner (1901-1909): 'Die Alpen im Eiszeitalter' engl.: „The European Alps in the Ice Age“ Focussing on processes and forms, but develop as well the glaciation of the European Alps => introduce a „model“ Penck, W. (1924): Morphological analysis 15 Penck , Albrecht Penck‘s impact ….. Establishment of „Geomorphology“ as an independent research field „Thinking observations“, „trained judgement“, „expecting the unexpected“, Search for disagreement Guided by theory, NOT: theory driven!!! Self-reflection, Abduction* * Abduction: Form of logical inference that goes from data description of something to a hypothesis that accounts for the reliable data and seeks to explain relevant evidence (first introduced by American philosopher American philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce (1839–1914)) From a lecture given by Wardenga, U. (2009): Albrecht Penck – Schlüsselfigur der deutschen Geomorphologie.- AK Geomorphologie, Vienna, 24.09.2009 16 Current situation Today‘s focus: Analysis of processes operating in terrestrial systems In Geomorphology: triggered by R. Horton's (1945) description of hydrological pattern in catchments Fluvial geomorphology Chorley (since 1957) Hack 1960 Leopold & Langbein 1962 Schumm & Lichty 1965 In the German speaking countries: Ahnert, Barsch, Dikau TIME in terrestrial systems!! Interplay: Site conditions created by processes Site conditions determine processes Mathematical / physical models and quantification Genetic research – terrestrial systems 17 Preliminary conclusion Not only WHAT, but also HOW. All observations are strongly dependent on previous knowledge and theory(ies). In order to be able to observe, one has to learn on how to observe. Hereby, please be aware on the power of images and their effects – in particular during field investigations. It is absolutely helpful to remind yourself, to reflect on HOW you observe WHAT you observe – to avoid the pit-falls of memory trainings. From a lecture given by Wardenga, U. (2009): Albrecht Penck – Schlüsselfigur der deutschen Geomorphologie.- AK Geomorphologie, Vienna, 24.09.2009 18 Albrecht Penck Tradition is not keeping the ash, but forwarding the flame! 19 From a lecture given by Wardenga, U. (2009): Albrecht Penck – Schlüsselfigur der deutschen Geomorphologie.- AK Geomorphologie, Vienna, 24.09.2009  Temporal evolution Complexity Paradigmatic Paradigmaticcrises crises Quantitative Quantitative revolution revolution System Research activity theory Geomorpho- genetics Creationism Processes Time 20 (Richards 2002, Dikau 2005) Fundamentals Measurable and quantifyable „facts“ in system analysis WHAT can be observed / monitored?? Observations: Processes in the defined system Site conditions at the selected regions / locations Current and former conditions => Genetic information 21  Space Humans and Society Atmosphere System approach …. Near surface Technogenic atmosphere Größe der Compartments Schutthalde Surface hydrology Animals Vegetation Terrestrial System of the earth Lithology of the earth 22 Leser H. (1995): Geomorphologie.- Braunschweig, Westermann. Changes in time noise pattern background Time Based on Jentsch & Beierkuhnlein 2003 23 From a lecture given by Samimi, C. (2011): Grundzüge der Biogeographie und Landschaftsökologie.- University of Vienna.  Temporal temperature variations Global average temperature Mesozoic Tertiary Quaternary 180 65 1.8 Million years 24 From a lecture given by Samimi, C. (2011): Grundzüge der Biogeographie und Landschaftsökologie.- University of Vienna.  Temporal temperature variations Eem-Warm period Quaternary Temperatur change (°C) Weichsel- / 0 Würm- ice age -2 -4 -6 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Thousand years 25 From a lecture given by Samimi, C. (2011): Grundzüge der Biogeographie und Landschaftsökologie.- University of Vienna. based on Hauser 2002  Temporal temperature variations 2 Temperature change (°C) Dryas-Event 0 -2 -4 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Thousand years 26 From a lecture given by Samimi, C. (2011): Grundzüge der Biogeographie und Landschaftsökologie.- University of Vienna. based on Hauser 2002  Temporal temperature variations 0.75° Modern Mediveal warm period Warm optimum 0.50° 0.25° Little Ice Age 0°C -0.25° -0.50° -0.75° -1.0° 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 27 From a lecture given by Samimi, C. (2011): Grundzüge der Biogeographie und Landschaftsökologie.- University of Vienna. changed from Glaser 2001  Spatial and temporal scales a) Temporal variability noise pattern background t b) Spatial variability noise pattern background 28 From a lecture given by Samimi, C. (2011): Grundzüge der Biogeographie und Landschaftsökologie.- University of Vienna. Spatiotemporal scales – CO2 Spheres - terrestrial system Atmosphere (Climatologie / Meteorology) Größe der Schutthalde Biosphere (Botany / Zoology) Hydrosphere (Hydrology) Pedosphere (Soil Sciences) Lithosphere (Geosciences) Earth surface Reliefsphere => Terrestrial system Zepp, H. (2004): Grundriß Allgemeine Geographie: Geomorphologie.- UTB-Uni 30 Taschenbücher, 2164. UTB, Paderborn, 454 S.  Some challenges … Größe der Schutthalde 31 http://necsi.edu/projects/mclemens/cs_char.gif  Forces and Response the former presentation from Martin Mergili … Dearing, J.A., Battarbee, R.W., Dikau, R., Larocque, I. & F. Oldfield (2006): Human-environment interactions: learning from the past. Regional Environmental Change, 6: 1-16. 32  Stability of systems Periodic Quasi stationary „Elasticity“ threshold exceeded 33 From a lecture given by Samimi, C. (2011): Grundzüge der Biogeographie und Landschaftsökologie.- University of Vienna.  Stability of systems Forman & Godron 1986, p. 436 34 From a lecture given by Samimi, C. (2011): Grundzüge der Biogeographie und Landschaftsökologie.- University of Vienna.  And more ….. Time lag the former presentation from Martin Mergili … 35 Nach Dearing J (2004), in: Goudie A.S. [Hrsg.]: Encyclopedia of Geomorphology, S. 721 The concept of connectivity Turnbull et al., 2018 36 The concept of connectivity Controls Keesstra et al., 2018 37 The concept of connectivity in geomorphology Connectivity between social and geomorphic systems 38 Poeppl et al., 2017 Resilience (and connectivity): The adaptive cycle concept Kombiadou et al., 2019 39 The concept of connectivity in geomorphology Example Marchi et al., 2019 40 The concept of connectivity in geomorphology Acting on different spatial (and temporal) scales… Keesstra et al., 2018 41 Complexity in geomorphology (complex response) Temme et al., 2015 42 Systems approach… applied to Geoecology Some key concepts: Biodiversity and Ecosystem stability 43 „All the living and nonliving things interacting in an area“ 44 An example from biodiversity research Renate Hieger 45 Climate change and anthropogenic environmental changes cause biodiversity loss 46 Based on Rohde & Muller (2005) Diversity-stability Theory: Cleland, E. E. (2011) Biodiversity and Ecosystem Stability. Nature Education Knowledge 3(10):14 47 Insurance hypothesis: Cleland, E. E. (2011) Biodiversity and Ecosystem Stability. Nature Education Knowledge 3(10):14 48 10 yr biodiversity experiment at the Cedar Creek Production stability Ecosystem Science Reserve Population stability 49 Cleland, E. E. (2011) Biodiversity and Ecosystem Stability. Nature Education Knowledge 3(10):14 Systems approach… applied to Geoecology Some key concepts: Mass Balance Approach 50 Mass Balance Approach: The Law of Conservation of Mass https://www.seilnacht.com/chemiker/chelav.html Antoine Lavoisier's 1789: mass is neither created nor destroyed in chemical reactions. In other words, the mass of any one element at the beginning of a reaction will equal the mass of that element at the end of the reaction. If we account for all reactants and products in a chemical reaction, the total mass will be the same at any point in time in any closed system. Lavoisier's finding laid the foundation for modern chemistry and revolutionized science. 51 Hypothetical pathway of a carbon atom Sterner, R. W., Small, G. E. & Hood, J. M. (2011) The Conservation of Mass. Nature Education Knowledge 3(10):20 52 Hypothetical pathway of a carbon atom through an ecosystem Early successional forest Biomass increasing C inputs > C outputs Mature forest Biomass static C inputs = C outputs Harvested forest Decreasing biomaass C inputs < C outputs https://www.geograph.ie/photo/6067569 https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Austrian_Forest.jpg https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timber_Harves ting,_Muncaster_Fell_-_geograph.org.uk_-_117030.jpg 53 Sterner, R. W., Small, G. E. & Hood, J. M. (2011) The Conservation of Mass. Nature Education Knowledge 3(10):20 All types of natural and even human-designed systems can be evaluated as ecosystems based on conservation of mass. Sterner, R. W., Small, G. E. & Hood, J. M. (2011) The Conservation of Mass. Nature Education Knowledge 3(10):20 54 Comparison between elemental composition of the Earth's crust and the human body https://wps.prenhall.com/wps/media/objects/165/169061/blb9ch0102.html 55  Mass Balance in Watersheds: Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest Sterner, R. W., Small, G. E. & Hood, J. M. (2011) The Conservation of Mass. Nature Education Knowledge 3(10):20 56 Mass Balance in Human Dominated Ecosystems: P Cycle in the US Midwest Margenot et al., 2019 57 Ecosystem resilience and change A given environment can support more than one potential state of an ecosystem ◦ Depends on current and past System adapts to changes ◦ E.g. New England forestry history ◦ “Alternative stable states” Data from Foster et al. (2010). 58 Resilience and thresholds Ecosystem resilience is the ability of an ecosystem to maintain its functioning in the face of shocks and perturbations Ecosystems are usually pretty resilient to changes to which organisms are well adapted ◦ Seasonal cycles, El Nino, droughts, fire etc. if part of environmental history 59 Internal dynamics can also drive fluctuations in ecosystem processes Data from Laine and Henttonen (1983). 60 Limits to resilience Ecosystems have limits to resilience ◦ Biological and physical External shocks may exceed the adaptive range ◦ Directional change ◦ Variability ◦ Adaptive range may contract Based on Smit and Wandel (2006). 61 Regime shifts When resilience is exceeded, regime shifts can occur suddenly ◦ Tipping points Example of clear water/turbid water system ◦ As P inputs increase in system, system loses resilience ◦ A random (stochastic) even, e.g. storm, triggers a mixing event ◦ New stable state occurs − Even if original driver (i.e. P concentrations) is reduced Redrawn from Carpenter (2003). 62 Disturbance Disturbance is removal of plant biomass in a discrete event in time Disturbance vs. normal function? ◦ E.g. herbivory vs. disease outbreak After disturbance, ecosystems undergo succession ◦ Primary = Remove most, if not all, products of ecosystem processes (e.g. soil, vegetation) ◦ Secondary = sites where disturbance has taken place, but some products remain (e.g. soil, seed banks) Chapin et al., 2011 63 Succession Often occurs over long time scales (years to decades to centuries) Early colonizers facilitate establishment of later successional species ◦ E.g. N fixation Competition also occurs between organisms for limited resources Succession after glacial retreat; Chapin et al. (1994) 64 Succession and ecosystem functioning Disturbance and succession also impact: ◦ Water and Energy Exchange ◦ Carbon Balance ◦ Nutrient Cycling ◦ Trophic Dynamics How might these change? [Have a look in Chapin et al., 2011 for examples] 65 Temporal scaling of ecological processes Ecologists typically measure processes over shorter time periods that the timescales involved for predictions ◦ Climate change impacts will take place over decades to centuries ◦ Can we realistically measure this? Temporal scaling is extrapolation of measurements at one interval to another interval Scale according to: ◦ Long-term measurements ◦ Isotopes ◦ Modelling results Chapin et al., 2011 66 Planetary boundaries Rockstrom et al (2009) Defining a ‘safe operating space for humanity’. Once Earth system has passed certain thresholds or tipping points, defined as planetary boundaries, then there is a risk of irreversible change 67 Stable states in the Earth system Conceptually, the Anthropocene could be seen as the Earth system moving into a new stable state (Steffen et al., 2016) 68 Are we entering a new stable state? Gaffney and Steffen (2017) 69 System-theoretical considerations ▪ Spatial and temporal dimensions? ▪ Continuously changing buffering capacities ▪ Thresholds - activity, Hysteresis-effects! ▪ „Tipping-Points“ – changing system behaviour ▪ Factors very difficult to differentiate: Preparational factors Triggering factors Controlling factors ▪ Non-linearity – depends on the „point of view“ ▪ Emergence is evident 70 Challenges … In General: Reflected observations (own glasses / socialization …) Applying a system approach Try to quantify though modeling Define the limitations & assumptions Combine laboratory results with field observations Define the limitations & assumptions Considering time / space 71 Materials for the lectures Available on the eLearning-Platform Moodle Lectures Supplementing materials List of publications Note: The overheads are purely for your own use. The provision of the materials to people outside the enrolled students of this course is strictly prohibited. The overheads are available as downloads until end of the course, then the course will be closed and the materials will not be further available. 72 References (Geomorphology) Blume et al., (eds).(2016): Scheffer/Schachtschabel: Soil Science. Springer, Berlin. Chapin III F.S., Matson P.A. & Vitousek P. (eds) (2011): Principles of Terrestrial Ecosystem Ecology.- 2nd edition, Springer, Berlin Candell J.G., Pataki D. & Pitelka L.F. (eds.) (2007): Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing Worls. – Springer, Berlin. Gange A.C. & Brown V.K. (eds.) (2009): Multitrophic Interactions in Terrestrial Systems. - 36th Symposium of the British Ecological Society. Goudie, A. (2013): The human impact on the natural environment: past, present and future. Wiley- Blackwell. Huggett J.H. (2003): Fundamentals of Geomorphology. Routlegde, London. Keller, E.A. (2012): Introduction to Environmental Geology. Pearson Prentice Hall, New Jersey. Phillips J. D. (1999): Earth Surface Systems – Complexity, Order and Scale, Blackwell Publishers Inc., Oxford. Slaymaker O., Spencer T. & Embelton-Hamann C. (2009): Geomorphology and Global Environmental Change.- Cambridge University Press. 73 References (Geomorphology) Keesstra, S., Nunes, J. P., Saco, P., Parsons, T., Poeppl, R., Masselink, R., & Cerdà, A. (2018). The way forward: can connectivity be useful to design better measuring and modelling schemes for water and sediment dynamics? Science of the Total Environment, 644, 1557-1572. Kombiadou, K., Costas, S., Carrasco, A. R., Plomaritis, T. A., Ferreira, Ó., & Matias, A., 2019. Bridging the gap between resilience and geomorphology of complex coastal systems. Earth-Science Reviews, 198, 102934. Marchi, L., Comiti, F., Crema, S., & Cavalli, M. (2019). Channel control works and sediment connectivity in the European Alps. Science of the total environment, 668, 389-399. Poeppl, R.E., Keesstra, S.D., Maroulis, J., 2017. A conceptual connectivity framework for understanding geomorphic change in human-impacted fluvial systems. Geomorphology 277: 237-250. Richards, A., 2002. Complexity in Physical Geography. Geography, 87(2), 99–107. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40573664 Temme, A. J., Keiler, M., Karssenberg, D., & Lang, A., 2015. Complexity and non‐linearity in earth surface processes– concepts, methods and applications. Earth surface processes and landforms, 40(9), 1270-1274. Turnbull-Lloyd, L., Parsons, A., Kininmonth, S., Poeppl, R.E., Huett, M., Keesstra, S.D., Tockner, K., Ioannides, A., Masselink, R., 2018. Connectivity and complex systems: learning from a multi-disciplinary perspective. Applied Network Science 3:11. Wohl, E., Brierley, G., Cadol, D., Coulthard, T., Covino, T., Fryirs, K., Grant, G., Hilton, R., Lane, S., Magilligan, F., Meitzen, K., Passalacqua, P., Poeppl, R., Rathburn, S., Sklar, L., 2018. Connectivity as an emergent property of geomorphic systems. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms doi:10.1002/esp.4434 74 References (Geoecology) Chapin, F. S. et al. Principles of Terrestrial Ecosystem Ecology. New York, NY: Springer, 2002. Likens, G. E. & Bormann, F. H. Biogeochemistry of a Forested Ecosystem. 2nd ed. New York, NY: Springer-Verlag, 1995. Moen, R. A. et al. Antler growth and extinction of Irish Elk. Evolutionary Ecology Research 1, 235–249 (1999). Sterner, R. W. & Elser, J. J. Ecological Stoichiometry: The Biology of Elements from Molecules to the Biosphere. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002. Simpson, S. J. et al. Cannibal crickets on a forced march for protein and salt. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 103, 4152-4156 (2006). 75 References (Geoecology) Balvanera, P. et al. Quantifying the evidence for biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning and services. Ecology Letters 9, 1146–1156 (2006). Hooper, D. U. et al. Effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning: A consensus of current knowledge and needs for future research. Ecological Monographs 75, 3–35 (2005). Ives, A. R. & Carpenter, S. R. Stability and diversity of ecosystems. Science 317, 58–62 (2007). McCann, K. S. The diversity-stability debate. Nature 405, 228–233 (2000). McGrady-Steed, J. et al. Biodiversity regulates ecosystem predictability. Nature 390, 162–165 (1997). Naeem, S. & Li, S. Biodiversity enhances ecosystem reliability. Nature 390, 507–509 (1997). Naeem, S. et al. Declining biodiversity can alter the performance of ecosystems. Nature 368, 734–737 (1994). Sala, O. E. et al. Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287, 1770–1774 (2000). Stork, N. E. Re-assessing current extinction rates. Biodiversity and Conservation 19, 357–371 (2010). Tilman, D. et al. Biodiversity and ecosystem stability in a decade-long grassland experiment. Nature 441, 629–632 (2006). Wardle, D. A. et al. Stability of ecosystem properties in response to above-ground functional group richness and composition. Oikos 89, 11–23 (2000). Yachi, S. & Loreau, M. Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in a fluctuating environment: The insurance hypothesis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 96, 1463–1468 (1999). 76 Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective - Perspectives in human geography Patrick Sakdapolrak Population Geography and Demography [email protected] VO Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective (2024W) 14.10.2024 Agena today Part 1 – Global change and sustainability: perspectives in physical geography (Stephan Glatzel) Part 2 – Global change and sustainability: perspectives in human geography (Patrick Sakdapolrak) Content - Different concepts in human geography for the analysis of global change and sustainability Aim - Introduce human geography for the analysis of global change and sustainability Seite 2 Outline Interdisciplinarity & environmental geography Concepts in human geography ◦ Climate justice ◦ Political ecology ◦ Social vulnerability Seite 3 Perspectives from human geography Introduction Seite 4 Interdisciplinarity & environmental geography Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective Please discuss with your seat neighbor the following questions (3 mins) How do you understand interdisciplinarity? How important is it for you? What role does geography has in interdisciplinary research? What is interdisciplinarity? Souorce: Mollinga (2018): The rational organisation of dissent: Boundary concepts, boundary objects and boundary settings in the interdisciplinary study of natural resources management. Seite 7 ZEF Working Paper Series: Bonn. What is interdisciplinarity? “Interdisciplinary studies may be defined as a process of answering a question, solving a problem, or addressing a topic that is too broad or complex to be dealt with adequately by a single discipline or profession.” (Klein and Newell, 1996:393) Souorce: Mollinga (2018): The rational organisation of dissent: Boundary concepts, boundary objects and boundary settings in the interdisciplinary study of natural resources management. Seite 8 ZEF Working Paper Series: Bonn. What is interdisciplinarity? science as we know it is organised in disciplines; the knowledge domain that a discipline covers is limited; some problems, questions and topics require the input of more than one discipline; for this category of broad and complex problems, questions and topics we (therefore) need an interdisciplinary approach that is able to integrate the different types of disciplinary knowledge in some way or the other Souorce: Mollinga (2018): The rational organisation of dissent: Boundary concepts, boundary objects and boundary settings in the interdisciplinary study of natural resources management. ZEF Working Paper Series: Bonn. Seite 9 Interdisciplinarity – levels and degree Between the three main groups Between the main disciplines in these three natural groups; sciences Between specialisations within a main arts & discipline; humanitie social s Between subsequent specialisations, and sciences so forth. Souorce: Mollinga (2018): The rational organisation of dissent: Boundary concepts, boundary objects and boundary settings in the interdisciplinary study of natural resources management. ZEF Working Paper Series: Bonn. Seite 10  Interdisciplinarity – levels and degree Synopsis: creation of an overview of the different dimensions of a problem, topic or question by collecting together the different disciplinary perspectives relevant to it (multi-disciplinarity ) Interaction: disciplines do influence each other – concept formation and/ or problem solving. Symbiosis: problem definition and research question are shaped by the interdisciplinary collaboration Unification: When symbiosis leads to a new discipline (which, as already suggested, is as much a social and institutional process as it is an intellectual one) [in Geography - Intra-interdisciplinarity] Souorce: Mollinga (2018): The rational organisation of dissent: Boundary concepts, boundary objects and boundary settings in the interdisciplinary study of natural resources management. ZEF Working Paper Series: Bonn. Seite 11 Transdisciplinarity start from the problem/issue, and all the knowledge dimensions and claims associated with it, be they scientific, lay, professional, or otherwise, and consider the different claimants as equal partners in the research cum action. action oriented accepts local contexts and uncertainty; it is context specific negotiation of knowledge Souorce: Mollinga (2018): The rational organisation of dissent: Boundary concepts, boundary objects and boundary settings in the interdisciplinary study of natural resources management. ZEF Working Paper Series: Bonn. Seite 12 Interdisciplinarity as boundary work Interdisciplinarity as boundary work: Economic Geomorphology - concepts geography - objects Geoecology - settings Population Development Geography Studies Philosophy Political science Biology 13 Boundary concepts analytical work to be able to think across disciplinary boundaries, that is, to be able to conceptually (and by inference, methodologically) capture the multidimensionality of complex problems (product: boundary concepts); Souorce: Mollinga (2018): The rational organisation of dissent: Boundary concepts, boundary objects and boundary settings in the interdisciplinary study of natural resources Seite 14 management. ZEF Working Paper Series: Bonn. Boundary objects instrumental work to be able to make knowledge useful in concrete settings of decision making or other forms of action and intervention by designing appropriate instruments for that (product: boundary objects) Souorce: Mollinga (2018): The rational organisation of dissent: Boundary concepts, boundary objects and boundary settings in the interdisciplinary study of natural resources management. ZEF Working Paper Series: Bonn. Seite 15 Boundary settings organisational work to shape incentives, processes and organisations, and people’s knowledge, skill and attitudes in such a way that they facilitate interdisciplinarity (product: boundary settings). Souorce: Mollinga (2018): The rational organisation of dissent: Boundary concepts, boundary objects and boundary settings in the interdisciplinary study of natural resources management. ZEF Working Paper Series: Bonn. Seite 16 What is environmental geography/ geography of human-environment relations? Seite 17 Environmental geography 18 Quelle: Castree et al 2009: 2 Environmental geography 19 Quelle: Castree et al 2009: 4 Environmental geography Castree et al. (2009: 6): “any form of geographical inquiry which considers formally some element of society or nature relative to each other” 20 Perspectives from human geography Global change and sustainability Seite 21 Global change and sustainability: Perspectives from human geography Climate justice Political ecology Social vulberability Climate justice What is climate justice? What is climate justice? “Climate change has had unequal and uneven burdens across places whereby the planetary crisis involves a common but differentiated responsibility.” “Climate justice fundamentally is about paying attention to how climate change impacts people differently, unevenly, and disproportionately, as well as redressing the resultant injustices in fair and equitable ways.” Source: Sultana, Farhana (2022): Critical climate justice. In: Geographical Journal 188 (1), S. 118–124. DOI: 10.1111/geoj.12417. Seite 25 Historical Context and Emission Disparities Seite 26 Seite 27  Actual national contributions to Hypothetical equal per-capita national historical temperature changes shares of historical temperature increases Figure 3 | National climate debts and credits. a, Actual national contributions to historical temperature changes. b, Hypothetical equal per-capita national shares of historical temperature increases. c, Climate debts and credits for each country, calculated according to equation (2) (see Methods) as the accumulated difference between a country’s actual contribution to historical temperature changes (a) and its equal per- capita share of temperature increases (b). The climate debt/credit values are shown as a stacked area plot, whereby the width of each coloured area slice represents that country’s accumulated climate debt or credit over time. All countries are included in each figure panel, with the top 12 debtor and creditor countries listed and identified by colour in the legend accompanying the lower panel. Seite 28 Figure 3 | National climate debts and credits. a, Actual national contributions to historical temperature changes. b, Hypothetical equal per-capita national shares of historical temperature increases. c, Climate debts and credits for each country, calculated according to equation (2) (see Methods) as the accumulated difference between a country’s actual contribution to historical temperature changes (a) and its equal per- capita share of temperature increases (b). The climate debt/credit values are shown as a stacked area plot, whereby the width of each coloured area slice represents that country’s accumulated climate debt or credit over time. All countries are included in each figure panel, with the top 12 debtor and creditor countries listed and identified by colour in the legend accompanying the lower panel. Seite 29 Climate change vulnerability Seite 30 Seite 31  Adverse impacts of climate change, development deficits and inequality exacerbate each other. Existing vulnerabilities and inequalities intensify with adverse impacts of climate change (high confidence). These impacts disproportionately affect marginalised groups, amplifying inequalities and undermining sustainable development across all regions (high confidence). Due to their socioeconomic conditions and the broader development context, many poor communities, especially in regions with high levels of vulnerability and inequality, are less resilient to diverse climate impacts (high confidence). {8.2.1, 8.2.2, 8.3.2, 8.3.3} Seite 32 Figure 8.2 in Birkmann, J., E. Liwenga, R. Pandey, E. Boyd, R. Djalante, F. Gemenne, W. Leal Filho, P.F. Pinho, L. Stringer, and D. Wrathall, 2022: Poverty, Livelihoods and Sustainable Development. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. Seite 1171– 33 1274, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.010 Climate change and social inequality - a vicious cycle “initial inequality causes the disadvantaged groups to suffer disproportionately from the adverse effects of climate change, resulting in greater subsequent inequality.” Main channels (a) increase in the exposure; (b) increase in their susceptibility (c) decrease in their ability to cope & recover Seite 34  Intersectionality “the interaction between gender, race and other categories of difference in individual lives, social practices, institutional arrangements, and cultural ideologies and the outcomes of these interactions in terms of power” (Davis 2008) Davis, K., 2008. Intersectionality as buzzword: a sociology of science perspective on what makes a feminist theory useful. Feminist Theory, 9 (1), 67–85. Seite 35 Seite 36 Seite 37 Political ecology Perspectives in human geography 39  Desertification https://wad.jrc.ec.europa.eu/#services Seite 40 41 Quelle: http://www.br.de/themen/wissen/wueste-ausbreitung- desertifikation-verwuestung-100.html Political ecology Blaikie, P. (1985). The political economy of soil erosion in developing countries. London: Longman. 42 Political ecology 43 Political ecology of conservation and protected areas https://www.protectedplanet.net/en Seite 44 Modes of conservation as an expression of society-environment relations fortress conservation (Brockington 2002; Neumann 1998) Source: Vacarro et al. 2013 Seite 45 Modes of conservation as an expression of society-environment relations fortress conservation (Brockington 2002; Neumann 1998) different forms of co-management conservation (Brechin et al. 2003; Brosius, Tsing, and Zerner 2005; Gibson and Marks 1995; Peters 1998) Source: Vacarro et al. 2013 Seite 46 Modes of conservation as an expression of society-environment relations fortress conservation (Brockington 2002; Neumann 1998) different forms of co-management conservation (Brechin et al. 2003; Brosius, Tsing, and Zerner 2005; Gibson and Marks 1995; Peters 1998) neoliberal conservation Source: Vacarro et al. 2013 Seite 47 Political ecology of conservation and protected areas Conservation and the idea of nature Source: Adams and Hutton 2007 Seite 48  Example: INGO's narrative about the rainforest Exoticizing (jungle, mystic, unique, etc.) Climax (optimum, equilibrium) Old (ancient, oldest, millions of years) Vulnerable (exploited, damaged, non- renewable) Narrative about necessity ("lungs of the earth")  Narrative about vulnerability ("most countries have lost their ancient forest areas") 49 Stott, P. (1999) Political ecology of conservation and protected areas Conservation and the idea of nature Political economy of conservation benefits Source: Adams and Hutton 2007 Seite 50 Political economy of conservation benefits Eco-system services Tourism industry Illegal extraction of economic benefits Seite 51 Political ecology of conservation and protected areas Conservation and the idea of nature Political economy of conservation benefits Social impact of parks Seite 52 Source: Adams and Hutton 2007 Social impact of parks Displacement ◦ loss of rights to residence ◦ loss of rights to use land and resources ◦ foreclosure of rights to future use ◦ loss of non- consumptive use values Source: Adams and Hutton 2007 Direct and indirect cost for neighbours Seite 53 Seite 54 Social Vulnerability Perspectives in human geography Natural hazards and catastrophes https://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-and-extreme-weather-science-is-proving-the-link/a-43323706 Attribution science: Linking climate change to extreme weather Annual global temperatures from 1850-2017 Seite 57 https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world  Hurricane Ida (2021): 240 km/h 80 Fatalities Cyclone Nargis (2008): 215 km/h 138.000 Fatalities 58 Hazards Hazards „A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation“ Quelle: UNISDR o.J. (= United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction) 59 Natural Hazards „Natural processes or phenomena occuring in the biosphere that may constitute a damaging event.“ (UNISDR o.J.) “those elements in the physical environment, harmful to man and caused by forces extraneous to him” (Burton and Kates 1964) “rare and extreme natural phenomena greatly exceeding human expectation in terms of its magnitude and frequency” (Chapman 1994) 60 Risk Risk „The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (death, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted, environment damaged) resulting from the interactions between natural or human induced hazards and vulnerable conditions“ Risk = Hazard X Vulnerability Quelle: UNISDR o.J. 61 Vulnerability Natural and engineering sciences tend to focus on the hazard “side” of vulnerability; Social science approaches highlight the social, economic and political structures that are framing vulnerability, as well as agency of individuals or groups in possibly reducing vulnerability Social vulnerability 63 From natural disasters to social vulnerability „The time is ripe for some form of precautionary planning which considers vulnerability of the population as the real cause of disaster – a vulnerability that is induced by socio-economic conditions that can be modified by man, and is not just an act of God. Precautionary planning must commence with the removal of the concepts of naturalness from natural disasters“ Quelle: O‘Keefe et al. 1976: 567 64 Social vulnerability Robert Chambers 65 Double structure of vulnerability Chambers (1989: 1): Exposure „Vulnerability here refers to exposure to contingencies and stress, and difficulty in coping with them. Vulnerability has thus two sides: an external side of risks, shocks, Double structure of vulnerability and stress to which an individual or household is subject; and an internal side which is defencelessness, meaning a lack of means to cope without damaging loss.“ Coping Source: Bohle 2001 66 Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity social & environmental VULNERABILITY Outcomes Stressors Multiple Adverse Exposure Adaptive Sensitivity Capacity Quelle: Watts & Bohle 1993; Turner et al. 2003; Vogel & O’Brien 2004 Entwurf: Sakdapolrak 07/2006 67 68  Vulnerability framework. Components of vulnerability identified and linked to factors beyond the system of study and operating at various scales 69 Quelle: Turner et al. 2003 Pressure and Release Model Ben Wisner, Piers Blaikie, Terry Cannon and Ian Davis (2004): At risk: Natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters 70 Pressure and Release Model 71 Key themes in explaining differential vulnerability to climate change Access to ressources Governance Culture Knowledge Seite 72 Access to resources & differential vulnerability Access to resources determines vulnerability. Resources can be tangible (e.g., food, infrastructure) or intangible (e.g., information). Social structures often prevent marginalized groups from accessing resources. Inequality in resource access exists even in wealthy areas. Vulnerability results from unequal distribution, not lack of resources. Inequality is rooted in social hierarchies (race, caste, gender, etc.). Source: Thomas et al. 2018 Seite 73 Entitlement approach Sen, A. (1981). Poverty and Famines. An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation. Oxford University. Entitlements 'the set of alternative commodity bundles that a person can command in a society using the totality of rights and opportunities that he or she faces' (Sen 1984: 497). 74 Governance & differential vulnerability Governance goes beyond government institutions and shapes vulnerability. Includes relationships between government, private actors, markets, and networks. Climate change presents challenges requiring different responses for sudden events and gradual changes. Representation in political processes is key to reducing vulnerability. NGOs play a role by challenging policies and partnering for social action. Source: Thomas et al. 2018 Seite 75 Culture & differential vulnerability Culture is essential for understanding climate vulnerability. People perceive and respond to risks through a cultural lens. Cultural systems shape exposure and responses to environmental changes. Cultural norms can increase vulnerability (e.g., women not learning survival skills). Cultural heritage (tangible and intangible) influences vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Source: Thomas et al. 2018 Seite 76 Knowledge & differential vulnerability Knowledge is key to addressing vulnerability, but scientific knowledge alone isn't enough. Local and traditional knowledge enhances adaptation and mitigation strategies. Collaboration between science and local organizations fosters trust and engagement. Co-production of knowledge, with researchers and communities, is highly effective. Source: Thomas et al. 2018 Seite 77 Seite 78 Vulnerability indices 1. Defining the scope ◦ Which SES is the object of study, e.g., locality, community, industrial sector, and ecosystem? ◦ Vulnerabilities of which valued attributes of this SES are to be assessed, e.g., health, prosperity, biological productivity, and biodiversity? ◦ Vulnerabilities to which climate-related stress(es) are to be assessed? 2. Selecting the indicators 3. Aggregating the values Seite 79 WorldRiskIndex WorldRiskIndex Seite 80 Source: https://weltrisikobericht.de/weltrisikobericht-2021-e/ WorldRiskIndex Seite 81 WorldRiskIndex Seite 82 Things to consider … Spatial Scale Vulnerability processes vary across scales At household level: Access to resources, income diversity, and social status are key. At regional/national scale: Market structures, social security, infrastructure, and income play a larger role. Scholars suggest smaller scales (local) are better suited for vulnerability assessments. Smaller scales allow clearer system definition and easier identification of socioeconomic and biophysical processes. Seite 83 Things to consider … Temporal Scale Vulnerability refers to potential harm, but timing is key: today or in the future? The assessment depends on whether it’s about current vulnerability or future potential vulnerability shaped by past adaptation. Temporal consistency is essential—when are indicators measured? Physical sciences often project vulnerability into the future, while social sciences focus on understanding current processes. Seite 84 Things to consider … Uncertainty Epistemic uncertainty arises from incomplete knowledge of processes (e.g., climate predictions). Social processes introduce significant uncertainty in projecting indicators. Some vulnerability processes are unknown or not quantifiable. Imprecision can arise from indicator fluctuations over time or space, especially when projected. Subjectivity exists in assigning weights to indicators, as expert/stakeholder opinions may vary. Seite 85 Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective - Perspectives in human geography Patrick Sakdapolrak Population Geography and Demography [email protected] VO Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective (2024W) 14.10.2024 290043 VO Fundamentals of Global Change and Sustainability from a Geographic Perspective 07.10.2024, Mo 09:45-13:00h, Hörsaal II Lecturers: Prof. Dr. Stephan Glatzel Dr. Philipp Marr Prof. Dr. Patrick Sakdapolrak (course coordinator) Prof. Dr. Michaela Trippl IPCC 2021 geomorph.univie.ac.at