Unit 2: The Global Situation PDF

Unit 2: The Global Situation STAT101: Statistics in The Modern World Department of Statistics UAE University STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 1 / 14 ...

Unit 2: The Global Situation STAT101: Statistics in The Modern World Department of Statistics UAE University STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 1 / 14  Outline 1 Introduction 2 Limits to Growth 3 Sustainability 4 Economic Growth and Climate Change STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 2 / 14  Introduction The Global Situation Despite the high levels of achievement in science and economy, the earth is in great difficulty today as a result of the population growth. Population growth is a global issue and cause for concern for the entire human race. Due to the recent trends of population increase around the world, it is important to deeply investigate the factors that cause populations to grow and the problems that occur due to this growth. To match the population growth, obviously there should be a paral- lel economic growth. However, the ability to increase production has coincided with serious problems of population explosion, raw material depletion, environmental pollution and global climatic change. STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 3 / 14  Limits to Growth Limits to Growth? In their book Limits to Growth, Dennis Meadows and a group of sci- entists (1972) modeled the consequences of a rapidly growing world population and finite resource supplies including five variables: world population, industrialization, pollution, food production and resource depletion. The team presented and analyzed 12 scenarios that showed different possible patterns-and environmental outcomes-of world development over two centuries from 1900 to 2100. The team suggested that unless policies were changed and individual behavior could be altered, sooner or later there would be serious prob- lems for the planet as a whole. Exponential growth of the world population, as well as the growth of industrial capital for the production of ’world product’ seemed to be the key culprits, causing problems of resource depletion and pollution. STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 4 / 14  Limits to Growth Limits to Growth? In 1992, the team updated Limits in a book called Beyond the Limits. Beyond the Limits argued that in many areas we had “overshot our limits, or expanded our demands on the planets resources and sinks be- yond what could be sustained over time. The main challenge identified was how to move the world back into sustainable territory. The most recent updated version was published 2004 under the name Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. The team presented 10 differ- ent scenarios for the future, through the year 2100 and concluded that humanity is dangerously in a state of overshoot. While the past 30 years has shown some progress, including new tech- nologies, new institutions, and a new awareness of environmental prob- lems, the authors are far more pessimistic than they were in 1972. Hu- manity has squandered the opportunity to correct our current course over the last 30 years and much must change if the world is to avoid the serious consequences of overshoot in the 21st century. STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 5 / 14  Limits to Growth State of the World Figure: One scenario for the future of the world through the year 2100 STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 6 / 14  Sustainability Towards Sustainability In 1987, the World Commission on Environment and Development put the idea of sustainability into these words: A sustainable society is one that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. A sustainable society is one that has informational, social, and insti- tutional mechanisms to control population and capital growth. This means that birthrates roughly equal death rates, and investment rates roughly equal depreciation rates. Such a society would be almost unimaginably different from the one in which most people now live. To have a much clearer idea about some of the quantitative aspects of our world, we will focus on some global trends, including: population growth, levels of global output, pollution and indications of possible climatic change. The magnitudes of population growth and the growth of output help to understand some trends in a world where economic developments can be characterized by a deep division between ’rich’ and ’poor’. STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 7 / 14  Sustainability Towards Sustainability On the ’poor’ side there are high birth rates, high infant mortality, illiteracy, low life expectancy and ’explosive’ population growth. On the ’affluent’ side there is high per capita energy consumption, mass ownership of cars and many other polluting consumer durables (washing machines, refrigerators, etc.). Both trends contribute to global environmental pressures including depletion of resources, desertification, deforestation, global warming, ozone holes and acid rain. This definitely leads us to wonder: Is it really totally inconceivable that ’overshoot’ could be the result of unsustainable developments, particularly in the field of economic growth as well as of resource depletion? Will better global management tomorrow, enable us to cope with rising world population as well as with vigorous economic growth for rich and poor alike? To make some educated guesses about future scenarios, we should explore the existing longterm trends. STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 8 / 14  Economic Growth and Climate Change Economic Growth and Climate Change Economic activity, energy use, and carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions move together. The burning of fossil fuels for the purposes of industrial production and consumption is the main source of man-made CO2 emissions, one of the key greenhouse gases allegedly contributing some 50% to the greenhouse effect. The world is experiencing the impact of rising average global tempera- ture on physical and biological systems, and the situation is worsening. The 13 warmest years since 1880 have occurred in the last 16 years.1 Approximately 70% of all CO2 emissions in 2016 were generated in the industrialized, high-income countries. In 2016, per capita emissions were greatest in Saudi Arabia and Aus- tralia, followed by Canada, South Korea and the Russian Federation. China’s per capita emissions were 6.4 metric tons while India’s were 1 1.6 tons.2 Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007 2 Source: The Union of concerned scientists, 2016 STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 9 / 14  Economic Growth and Climate Change CO2 Emissions per capita by Income Class, 2014 CO2 EMISSION PER CAPITA (TON) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 High income Middle income Low income Figure: CO2 Emissions per capita in low-, middle-, and high-income countries, 2014. Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank), table 2.1, Unit 2.xls STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 10 / 14  Economic Growth and Climate Change World CO2 Emissions 1950-2010 According to the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), world emissions of CO2 have increased substantially since the end of World War II, table 2.2. 35000 30000 CO2 Emission in million tons 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Figure: World CO2 emissions in millions of metric tons of carbon 1950-2010. STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 11 / 14  Economic Growth and Climate Change The Darker Side of Economic Growth However, such increase is not only as a result of a growing world population, but also as a result of increasing per capita emissions. Table: Per capita CO2 emissions (tons), 1960-2010, table 2.2. Year Per capita CO2 emissions (tons) 1960 3.22 1970 4.03 1975 4.18 1980 4.43 1985 4.24 1990 4.27 1995 3.94 2000 3.90 2005 4.27 2010 4.83 STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 12 / 14  Economic Growth and Climate Change Economic Growth and Climate Change In the 1980s global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rose more slowly than primary energy demand, mainly because the shares of nat- ural gas, nuclear power, and renewables in the power mix expanded. However, this decarbonization of energy reversed at the beginning of the 21st century as the share of nuclear energy fell while that of coal rose and as the world becomes wealthier, energy-related CO2 emissions continue to rise in absolute terms. Annual greenhouse gas emissions are projected to grow 35% in 2030 and the share of energy-related CO2 emissions in total emissions is forecast to increase from 61% in 2005 to 68% in 2030.3 This scenario puts us on a path to doubling aggregate concentrations by the end of the century, increasing global average temperatures up to 6◦ C.4 Moreover, this could lead to changing precipitation patterns and rising water levels due to the gradual melting of the polar ice caps. 3 Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007 4 Source: World Energy Outlook, 2008 STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 13 / 14  Economic Growth and Climate Change Project 1 What is climate change? What are its indicators? 2 Discuss the role of developed and developing countries in facing the problem of climate change. 3 Using the following sources, obtain data on the United Arab Emirates CO2 emissions in the last 20 years, plot the data and comment on the results. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) The World Bank Group: World Development Indicators United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 4 Using the above sources, rank the gulf countries based on CO2 emis- sions and per capita CO2 emissions. Comment on the ranking. STAT101 (UAEU) Unit 2: The Global Situation UAE University 14 / 14