Science for Sus Dev PDF Lecture Notes

Lecture I: 09-05 Science for SusDev Introduction JUNK SCIENCE ORIGINS In the 90s, the Tobacco Industry coined the term Junk Science. They were fighting the idea that secondhand smoke caused disease. - Big Tobacco started attacking individual studies. - They created “good epidemiological prac...

Lecture I: 09-05 Science for SusDev Introduction JUNK SCIENCE ORIGINS In the 90s, the Tobacco Industry coined the term Junk Science. They were fighting the idea that secondhand smoke caused disease. - Big Tobacco started attacking individual studies. - They created “good epidemiological practices” that would make it nearly impossible to conclude that secondhand smoke and other environmental toxins caused diseases. - CRITICALLY ANALYZING LANGUAGE “Bullshit involves language, statistical figures, data graphics, and other forms of presentations intended to persuade by impressing and overwhelming a reader or listener, with a blatant disregard for truth and logical coherence.” JUNK SCIENCE - makes generalized and overarching claims that don’t necessarily apply to everyone. - plays into your emotions (ex: exclamation points after every phrase). - passes something off as a certainty, when science does not prove things, only disproves. - if it seems too good to be true, it most likely is. - endorsed by celebrity figures - uses terms like “makes your __ feel better” lacks control groups SAMPLE SIZES AND CONTROL - One person is not a sample, it is an anecdote. - The larger the sample size, the less the effects of chance can skew the results. - Controlled Trials keep all variables constant except for the one being observed. - Control groups are important so we can determine if it is correlation or causation. - Control groups allow for generalizability if demographics are accounted for. - Randomized Controlled Trials: Give one group a placebo, one group the real medicine. - Double Blind Trial: Both subjects and researchers do not know which is placebo vs real. #1 SPURIOUS CORRELATIONS - Correlation does not equal causation, and just because two things are correlated, one does not definitely cause the other. - Study size must be considered, experiment must be copied, no biases, is there a control group? - Sometimes there are confounding variables, other times the relationship is not in the direction one assumes.  Example used in class: Parents’ smoking is correlated with delinquency in their children. It is false to assume smoking causes bad kids. Maybe there are socioeconomic variables, maybe parents smoke because their kids are bad. #2: CONFIRMATION BIAS: - Play off what people expect to hear, or want to hear. - Gender bias, racial bias, etc. cause problems in academia ( ex: less likely to be published, receive grants, be first author because of gender/race) Example from class: In teaching evaluations, male teachers are more likely to receive positive feedback than female teachers, despite them performing in exactly the same ways. #3 HIDE UNDER THE GUISE OF SCIENCE Using scientists or people related to science for your own agenda. Political projects that hire scientists to push their own conclusions and agendas. Dr. Oz approved! Dr. X recommends… Frontline Drs. with “FDA approved” treatments. TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS Garrett Hardin popularized the term. Important Idea: Garrett Hardin was a white supremacist and a nativist. He used his status as a prominent scientist to push his agenda of sterilizing non white women and eugenics. “EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY” - Whenever you see this with a capital E and a capital P, there is an agenda behind it. - “Environment of evolutionary adaptation”: Pleistocene - Rapid social/technological changes= maladapted minds - Ignores recent evolution, cultural contexts, diverse preferences, & agency - Faulty methodology (can’t be tested) NOTES FROM READING “7 warning signs of bogus science” 1. The discoverer pitches the claim directly to the media. (look for peer-review) 2. The discoverer says that a powerful establishment is trying to suppress his or her work. 3. The scientific effect involved is always at the very limit of detection. 4. Evidence for a discovery is anecdotal (based on emotional evidence, superstitious beliefs, eye witness stories) this is all confirmation bias 5. The discoverer says a belief is credible because it has endured for centuries. 6. The discoverer has worked in isolation. 7. The discoverer must propose new laws of nature to explain an observation. Your Science Toolkit: Evaluating Scientific Messages ○ Where does the information come from? ○ Are the views of the scientific community accurately portrayed? ○ Is there balance to both sides of the argument? Include multiple scientists! ○ Is the scientific community’s confidence in the ideas accurately portrayed? ○ Mention additional research, caveats, room for improvement ○ Is a controversy misrepresented or blown out of proportion? ○ Fundamental scientific controversy, secondary, ethicality, application! ○ Where can I get more information? ○ How strong is the evidence? Lecture 2: 09-10 Science for SusDev Introduction LARGE SCALE EARTH PROPERTIES & PROCESSES Property: measurable quantity that describes something about a system–density, mass, dimensions Process: an action that takes place over time that changes properties Stellar Parallax: star distances are measured in units of the distance from the sun to the earth, The nearer the star/the larger the angle is. Doppler Shift: detecting speed of star movement. Moving toward you: blue shift. Moving away: red shift. - Everything looks like it is moving away…the expanding universe. There is no central raisin in raisin bread baking, we are somewhere in the expanded universe and everything is moving away from each other. Hubble said this Doppler effect: Sound In front of a moving object, waves get closer together. (blue if light) Behind a moving object, waves get further apart. (red if light) Hubble looked at these objects and the spectrum and everything seemed to be at the red end, so objects moved away. This made him think objects were moving away from Earth. Everything was moving away. He couldn’t find anything moving towards Earth. Big Bang: Dark matter (nothing) expanded into something. - 1st stars 400 million years ago - Development of galaxies, planets - Dark Energy accelerated Expansion BREAKING TIMELINE DOWN OF BIG BANG: 1. t=0 →nothing exploded 2. Protons and neutrons created → 10^-6 seconds 3. H, He, Li nuclei created → 1-200 seconds 4. H, He atoms; light formed → 380,000 years from big bang 5. Milky Way formed → 1 Billion years 6. Sun, Earth formed → 9.16 billion years Galaxy rotation: spinning with a dense central core. Look at one limb, see a blue shift, other arm shows a red shift. The doppler effect proves this. - The Milky way (galaxies) formed from dust which started to rotate and coalesce. Heliocentrism Geocentrism - The Sun is the center (everything - Earth is the center of the Universe orbits sun) - Motion of planets used complex paths - Problem: Why is there no apartment - Problem: Retrograde motion of motion of stars? Mercury: when you track stars it does - Copernicus: proposed model (1543) not go around in a circle. - Ptolemy: proposed model Planet speed is fastest closest to the sun. New Observations support heliocentric - Kepler and Galileo both fought for a heliocentric model in the 1600’s - Kepler showed that planets follow elliptical not circular orbits—thus showing Ptolemy’s assumption of circular orbits wrong - Heliocentrism Skepticism: no apparent motion of stars was an issue. No observable stellar parallax. If the Earth were orbiting the Sun, distant stars would appear to shift in position relative to nearby stars but technology at the time could not detect this. - Geocentric Skepticism: Retrograde Motion: where certain planets (Mars and Juptier) would appear to briefly move backward in the night sky. Newton’s Laws of Motion and Gravity (late 1600’s) explained why planetary orbits are elliptical. This helped the heliocentric model become widely accepted! Axis is tilted = seasons In the winter, we are closest to the sun. Winters are shorter in the northern hemisphere than the southern hemisphere (week difference). - Earth and Moon are binary planets, not a planet with a satellite. The moon is not rotating around the earth, but instead rotating around a point in space. - - Moon formed after oblique collision between earth and mars sized impactor: debris created the moon. - When earth solidified, heavy elements consolidated into the middle. The core of earth: iron and nickel EARTH & WATER: - Oceans and atmosphere both originated in early Earth formation by outgassing of volcanoes. 50-60% of volcanic gasses are water vapor, then 24% CO2 - HUman actions do not directly alter the circulation or temperature of the oceans, but we can indirectly change the atmosphere and then alter ocean flow. - Composition of atmosphere changed due to: - Absorption of Co2 in oceans: chemical reactions with rocks to form carbonates like limestone - Nitrogen relatively inert so remains in same total amount (changes in proportion) - Oxygen level increased: photosynthesizing algae? Lecture III: 09-12 Our Incredible Planet How Our Planet Sustains Life Fermi Paradox: contradiction between high probability of existence of extraterrestrial civilizations, no contact and lack of evidence. What conditions are necessary for life to exist on a planet? 1. Liquid Water: universal solvent facilitates chemical reactions, robust vascular system evolved to help transport water for trees thanks to hydrogen bonds. Moderates temperature, water is slow to heat up. When heat is put into water, but to break any bond, you have to put the warming into breaking the hydrogen bonds, and then it will expand and turn into gas. Is the right distance from the sun the only factor required for liquid water? - Venus is +430 degrees celsius surface temperature, so much more than earth…why? Albedo: Ranges from 0 (black body everything is absorbed) to 1 (everything is bouncing back) How reflective a surface is. - GreenHouseEffect: some infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere, but most is absorbed and re-emitted in all directions by greenhouse gas molecules and clouds. This warms the earth's surface and lower atmosphere. #2 Benign Climate for a Long Time - Orbital Cycles: Milankovich cycle contributes a predictable amount of variation to Earths climate over time frames of tens of thousands to thousands of years. - Changes in Eccentricity (orbit shape), obliquity (tilt) more extreme winter vs summer, and axial precession (wobble) Planetary Thermostat: Plate Tectonics - Water moves the plates on the earth’s mantle, mars has no heat to drive and venus has no water. This causes volcanic activity (where atmospheric gasses came from before life) Calcium Carbonate shell, these protists die and contribute their calcium carbons. CARBON CYCLE Volcanoes put carbon in atmosphere through CO2. Rain falls, taking some CO2 with it. Weak carbonic acid, which erodes mountains with this carbonic acid running down, and reacting, and brings down calcium in rock and carbon from the sky. Then animals and protists use this to make their shells, and when they die, their shells and skeletons, time, heat and pressure, form sedimentary rock, creating limestone: foraminifera. That carbon has been sequestered. Through plate tectonics it can hit a fault that hits magma and comes back through the volcano as CO2. Or it touches magma and becomes metamorphosed, turning into marble. Enough time heat and pressure turns into fossil fuels, oils and gasses. Keeling curve: seasonal variations in the CO2 concentrations Lecture IV: 09-17 Cycles and Feedback Anoxia: (no O2) → no decomposition so carbon is sequestered, CO2 was taken out of the atmosphere (from the volcanoes) by these photosynthesizers to create duckweeds. This led to about a 80% drop in Co2, 3. Shield from Ultraviolet Radiation The higher the energy, the more damaging the radiation is. UV-C is the most damaging, and it was all bombarding planet earth until the Ozone was created. The Ozone layer came from photosynthesising (life), releasing it as a byproduct. The great oxygenation Event 2.3 Billion Years Ago First producers, cyanobacteria, aerobic eukaryotes, plastid endosymbiosis, algae, cambrian explosion, land plants, - Great Rusting Event: iron and oxygen - Archaens were a new breed of bacteria that was discovered in the Yellowstone, but deep sea mining on hydrothermal vents threatens biodiversity (archaeans) - Landfills produce methane, rice fields, wet areas lacking oxygen, methanobacterium (archaea) release methane gas. 4. Not too many mass extinctions, Carbon and other Biogenic elements 4 Interacting Sphere: 1. Hydrosphere: liquid and frozen water 2. Lithosphere: Earth’s mantle, crust, and core 3. Atmosphere: Gasses around air 4. Biosphere: all living organisms Soil = inorganic + organic Reservoirs: different capacities for holding things (dollars in bank, nitrogen in atmosphere) Nitrogen: makes producers grow more, and most limiting element to food production - Most Nitrogen is in the atmosphere 78% in a triple bond, three pairs - Ammonification and Nitrification Fluxes: going in between reservoirs (rate of change, gallons per year) - Nitrogen cycle - Nitrogen-fixing Bacteria (breaking the triple bond into Ammonia), Nitrogen has been fixed by bacteria and archaeans (many in the soil) - Legumes can fix their own nitrogen!  - Plants can only access Nitrates (NO3) and Ammonia (NH4), Cyanobacteria are also nitrogen fixing! NITROGEN CYCLE 1. Nitrogen fixation: Atmospheric nitrogen (N₂) → ammonium (NH₄⁺) or nitrate (NO₃⁻). (Nitrogen-fixing bacteria (e.g., in the roots of legumes like beans or peas) that convert N₂ into ammonium.Lightning and industrial processes (like making fertilizers), which can also convert N₂ to nitrate.) 2. Assimilation: Plants absorb nitrogen → animals eat plants.Plants take up usable nitrogen (ammonium or nitrate) from the soil through their roots and incorporate it into their tissues to make proteins, nucleic acids (DNA/RNA), and other vital molecules by eating plants. 3. Ammonification: Organic nitrogen (from dead plants/animals) → ammonium (NH₄⁺). When plants and animals die, or animals excrete waste, organic nitrogen (in the form of proteins, DNA, etc.) is broken down by decomposers (bacteria and fungi) into ammonium (NH₄⁺) and released back into the soil. 4. Nitrification: Ammonium (NH₄⁺) → nitrite (NO₂⁻) → nitrate (NO₃⁻). by nitrifying bacteria 5. Denitrification: Nitrate (NO₃⁻) → nitrogen gas (N₂) back into the atmosphere. What happens: In low-oxygen environments (like waterlogged soils or wetlands), denitrifying bacteria convert nitrate (NO₃⁻) back into nitrogen gas (N₂) or nitrous oxide (N₂O), which is then released back into the atmosphere. Sources & Sinks: Where the nutrient is going to (sink), where it is leaving from (source) Steady State: flow is equal going in and out of reservoir (columbia student administration) Cover Crops: do ot leave soil uncovered, legumes can add Nitrogen into the soil, after plants suck it out. Also covers soil from abiotic factors - Guano: bat poop and bird poop The Haber-Bosch Process: Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch split the triple nitrogen bond, this created synthetic fertilizers. These nitrogen fertilizers (50% taken up by plants), Nitrous Oxide is created by 50% that is fixed by bacteria. Eutrophication: 1. Excess nutrients, particularly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), enter a water body from fertilizer use, poop from cattle industry, sewage and waste water. 2. The high levels of nutrients cause a rapid growth of algae and aquatic plants called algal blooms (love nitrogen) 3. block of sunlight kills existing aquatic plants, and with short life span, the algae dies 4. Aerobic Decomposition occurs when bacteria break down the dead organic matter by using up oxygen in the water, causing mobile animals to die and plants to suffer (HYPOXIA) 5This happens in spring and summer when seas are calm, and there are no waves getting oxygen oxygenating the water. All oxygen is used up by decomposers Hypoxia: “Dead Zone” less than 2 mg / L dissolved oxygen - This region goes away in the fall and winter because hurricane season drops Lecture V: 09-19 Continuing Our Incredible Planet (Systems & Cycles) - The number of red tides have created harmful algal blooms that create a red toxin. There is a correlation between fertilizer use and algae blooms that enter the food chain. (Dinoflagellates are the red protists) unicellular - Coral & Dinoflagellates : responsible for 25% of all marine life (but only 1% of sea floor) Coral Bleaching Mutualistic relationship: Coral Stomach tissue, carbon and water → sugar, co2, and sugars - If water gets too warm, the dinoflagellates leave, and then calcium carbonate skeletons remain - 50% of ocean’s corals have been bleached - Coral and algae have a mutualistic relationship, where algae provide coral with energy (through photosynthesis) in exchange for shelter. - Coral bleaching occurs when water temperatures get too warm, causing the algae to leave the coral (primary source of energy since it doesn't get sugar from its photosynthesis anymore), which turns white and weakens. - If bleaching continues for too long, the coral starves and can die, leading to the loss of coral reefs, which are vital to ocean life. - NITROGEN is the Biogeochemical flows that has been surpassed in Planetary Boundaries PHOSPHORUS CYCLE - very important for freshwater systems - Most commonly found in rocks and in the form of phosphates Positive and Negative feedback: When feedback counters initial input (up and down graphically): negative feedback Positive feedback: amplifies the initial input (continues to go up or down in one direction) Example: Homeostasis our bodies sweat and shiver to go in opposite direction of trend - What stops positive feedback loops: release of energy (apple falls from tree) - Ask for feedback questions (will the initial thing continue moving in that direction?) - Keystone species: important animal for lifesystem Example: melting permafrost (frozen soil) releases methane or CO2, that will increase temperature even more. Another example, less incoming solar radiation is reflected, increasing heat absorption but decreasing ice albedo. Carbon only has 4 electrons in the outer shell so it easily bonds, especially to itself. It can form chains of itself creating glucose, but it is also in rocks and shells as calcium carbonate. Short term Carbon Cycle: Co2 is still in atmosphere, but then it is absorbed by photosynthesis taking it in. Cellular respiration is putting it back, but when animals consume then they decompose it through poop that is decomposed, ?which is then combined with carbon compounds in water? put back out through cellular respiration. !!!!We have taken coal, something that belongs in long term carbon cycle, and place it into the short term carbon cycle. !!!! Carbon is stored in the largest reservoir: SEDIMENTARY ROCKS LONG TERM CARBON CYCLE Weathering of rocks takes carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. Carbon silicate weather cycle: Cooler temperature → less evaporation → less weather → less CO2 scrubbed from atm → more greenhouse effect (it build up) → warmer temperature (thennnn) warmer temperature → more evaporation → more weathering of rocks → more CO2 ……COOLER TEMP These do not have a carbon cycle VENUS: no weathering or plate tectonics and runaway greenhouse Mars: carbon is trapped with no way to get back into atmosphere QUIZ #2 MATERIAL Lecture VI: 09-24 Earth’s Climate System Radiative Balance: In equilibrium, the passive body will absorb and radiate back into space the same amount of energy it receives from the Sun. - We do not feel the Earth’s internal heat at all! Only from the Sun Factors Affecting how How an Object Becomes: 1. The Sun's temperature 2. Distance of the sun from the object 3. Absorbing properties of the body - Every object that has a non-zero temperature in degrees Kelvin radiates electromagnetic energy into space. This radiation depends entirely on the body’s temperature. Electromagnetic Waves: caused by vibrating electrons, faster the vibration, the different radiation. Hot bodies have high vibration, slow bodies are cooler. - Higher the temperature the faster they vibrate - Amplitude: half amplitude, from equilibrium line to maximum - Wavelength: between peaks NOT from peak to trough - The speed of light is always constant If you irradiate an object, you can make the electrons move, vibrating electron will produce electromagnetic energy (this is how microwaves work) Electromagnetic Spectrum If the sun was hotter and produced X-Rays, then our eyes would see X-Rays, maybe like superman if we had adapted. We cannot hear or see super high or super low frequencies. The sun’s energy is strongest, around 550 nm wavelength Spectrum of Light Speed © in a vacuum is constant Wavelength changes with the temperature of emitting body How do we know what the Sun’s temperature is? #1 We look at the spectrum (color) of radiation changes with temperature The sun moves strongest in the green/ yellow range of the spectrum Planck function (blackbody radiation curve) : Wilhelm Weins Law 1893: T of the sun is 5500 defrees K The wavelength at which most energy is produced is inversely related Stefan-Boltzman Law: flux from Sun = 63,000,000 W/m^2 You don't need to change the temperature of the item as much to change the radiation? Difference between the bottom line and Sun shows the greenhouse effect? #2: Distance from the Sun Spherical spreading (divergence) If you got half the distance half the distance to the sun, you wuldnt be twice as hot, but 4 times as hot. THIS IS NOT LINEAR, inverse square law (sound, seismic energy) #3: The Earth’s Albedo Earth has a Radiation Budget: 30% of the heat does not contribute to heating the passive object (earth) up When it gets to the surface, it is more like 300 W/m^2 Short wavelength radiation comes from hot objects (ultraviolet) Long wavelength radiation comes from colder objects (infrared)  Incoming and outcoming do not equal each other, incoming ignores atmosphere, the outgoing knows a lot about the atmosphere. GHG Re-radiation: Energy that doesn't get through is absorbed and re-radiates (NOT A REFLECTION) absorbed by the atmosphere again as long wave radiation warms us. Long wavelength radations causes some molecutles in the atmospeher to vibrate. Absorb and re-emit radiation. Co2 vibrates (the oxygen molecutles do) and this is the vibration modes of carbon dioxide. Longwave excites 4 different vibration in CO2, causing them to absorb and re-radiate VERY vigorously. Oxygen and Nitrogen (triple strong bond). Long wave radiation to Nitrogen will NOT DO ANYTHING. Methan gets even MORE vibration because it has 9 different types of vibrations. Greenhouse Effect: Nitrogen and Oxygen absorb little to no radiation but Water vapour absorbs the IR wavelength range. 70-75% Transmitted 15-30% Transmitted Only certain components of the atmosphere contribute to the Greenhouse Effect Heat can be transmitted in three different ways. 1. Radiation 2. Conduction - 3. Convection - cools earth (hot and cold material moves around) exporting warm air from bottom to colder places. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. All 1, to 8, describe what is going on in one sentence? John Tyndall in 1862 first thought of this, but Eunice Foote found out about GHG properties. HOW CARBON CYCLE EFFECTS LONG TERM CLIMATE The Long term Carbon Cycle can affect the amount of heating on the planet. On very long time scales, tectonic plate movement changes rate at which carbon seeps from the Earth’s interior. Earth has undergone such a change over the last 50 million years, from the extremely warm climates of the Cretaceous to the glacial climates of the Pleistocene. The uplift of the Himalaya, beginning 50 million years ago, reset Earth’s thermostat by providing a large source of fresh rock to pull more carbon into the slow carbon cycle through chemical weathering. The resulting drop in temperatures and the formation of ice sheets changed the ratio between heavy and light oxygen in the deep ocean. READING NOTES: 09/26 At present, volcanoes emit between 130 and 380 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. For comparison, humans emit about 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year—100–300 times more than volcanoes—by burning fossil fuels. Humans are currently emitting just under a billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere per year through land use changes. Without human interference, the carbon in fossil fuels would leak slowly into the atmosphere through volcanic activity over millions of years in the slow carbon cycle. By burning coal, oil, and natural gas, we accelerate the process, releasing vast amounts of carbon (carbon that took millions of years to accumulate) into the atmosphere every year. By doing so, we move the carbon from the slow cycle to the fast cycle. In 2009, humans released about 8.4 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, when people first started burning fossil fuels, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have risen from about 280 parts per million to 387 parts per million, a 39 percent increase. This means that for every million molecules in the atmosphere, 387 of them are now carbon dioxide—the highest concentration in two million years. Methane concentrations have risen from 715 parts per billion in 1750 to 1,774 parts per billion in 2005, the highest concentration in at least 650,000 years. Carbon dioxide, on the other hand, remains a gas at a wider range of atmospheric temperatures than water. Carbon dioxide molecules provide the initial greenhouse heating needed to maintain water vapor concentrations. When carbon dioxide concentrations drop, Earth cools, some water vapor falls out of the atmosphere, and the greenhouse warming caused by water vapor drops. Likewise, when carbon dioxide concentrations rise, air temperatures go up, and more water vapor evaporates into the atmosphere—which then amplifies greenhouse heating. So while carbon dioxide contributes less to the overall greenhouse effect than water vapor, scientists have found that carbon dioxide is the gas that sets the temperature. Carbon dioxide controls the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere and thus the size of the greenhouse effect. Second, the more acidic water is, the better it dissolves calcium carbonate. In the long run, this reaction will allow the ocean to soak up excess carbon dioxide because more acidic water will dissolve more rock, release more carbonate ions, and increase the ocean’s capacity to absorb carbon dioxide. In the meantime, though, more acidic water will dissolve the carbonate shells of marine organisms, making them pitted and weak. Warmer oceans—a product of the greenhouse effect—could also decrease the abundance of phytoplankton, which grow better in cool, nutrient-rich waters. This could limit the ocean’s ability to take carbon from the atmosphere through the fast carbon cycle. Lecture VII:The Climate Future Climate Zones: these zones arise from… change from 30 and 60 N and S. Not perfectly symmetric because Antarctic is much colder than the arctic Equator SHOULD be the hottest place on earth, however, the deserts are hotter Tropical: Rainforests are in the equatorial regions, not the deserts… Precipitation is greatest in equatorial regions, parts of the oceans can be thought of as deserts (something where it doesn't rain very much at all) Trade winds: both have the same sort of zonal pattern, alternating or reversing—not a smooth transition from equator to pole. Why does this switch from low to high pressure, it is not uniform, and it has something to do with the global air temperature Large Scale Energy Transport: a non-rotating planet might have circulation that is only hot in the middle and cold at both ends. The air would expand, get buoyant, the density would lower and it would go up to the air.  CORIOLIS EFFECT: The deviation from actual path to expected path from the North Pole. From temperature gradients and Earth’s rotation, a c3 cell structure emerges: Hadley Cell, Ferrell Cell, and Polar Cell (every 30 degrees). Circulation cells are split up. Convection cells are at an angle, not perfectly N S because it correlates differently at sea level vs in the atmosphere. Air rises because it becomes less dense (expanded and buoyant full of water vapor) as it rises, it cools down in atmosphere, then becomes liquid (rain). In the Equator zone, thai is why the air is full of water because there is also lots of transpiration (plants) When the air comes down at 30 degrees, it is dry since the moisture has rained out. Then this is where the deserts are (right next to rainforests). 60 degrees (London, Paris) Deserts in Antarctica are dry at the edge of the Polar cell. This also explains the pressure changes, buoyant air rising creates low pressure, Dry air sinking creates high pressure, then low, then high! - Rainforest, desert, wetland, cold desert. - Strong convection is what causes the slope down from the Equator (check this)  Climate Zones and Vegetation Convection gives us the climate zones, the vegetation zones, and that's why we look like what we do. We know it is getting warmer, what is going to happen to this pattern? - Venus rotates very slowly, (a day is longer than a year, slower to rotate on axis than sun) Venus has ONE big cell, Jupiter has FIVE cells. Mars has THREE, and is tilted on its axis allowing it to have seasons, and zones. The Fog of Uncertainty - predictions of the future in anything are foggy - The arctic always heats up more than anywhere else: further change by a greater amount and more rapidly than anywhere else NO MATTER WHAT: WHY???? There has to be an input and output Common misunderstanding that climate models calculate emissions in the future, they don't! They need to be TOLD what these predictions are Step 1: calculate concentrations from emissions RCPS do that Step 2: Calculate “radiative forcing” (not () or oxygen” Step 3: Calculate temp responce Aerosols: bounce back energy back at earth (NOT GAS) Emissions Scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways RCPs (CONCENTRATIONS, not emissions) - These rely on estimates of a whole range of social factors (not scientific) - Energy Consumption mapped as well, SSPs: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, what we think that WE are going to do Model Representation: Pixel density (grid size) Many different Modeling Groups: Sensitive: put input and output will be a BIG difference. Insensitive: put a lot of GHG into atmosphere, not a lot happens The earth is almost in radiative balance with the sun, these are the amounts that we will be OUT of balance at the end of the century (only way is for the earth to warm up). If we do follow RCP2.6, then maybe we will only raise the temp a little bit. RCP8.5 says that our future is doomed. ( ) = # of models used Social is bigger than physical (social factors GHG, GDP), the greatest uncertainty used to come from the models all disagreeing (physical) Why do Models Differ? - coding, incomplete knowledge of feedback effect Why does the arctic warm more than any other equatorial region? - The ice shrinks in, and exposes more land, changing the albedo (down), this is the positive feedback), amplifying the heat absorbed. Ice-albedo-feedback Most important source of uncertainty in climate models: Cloud Radiative Feedback - Huge amount of convection in that one area (ecuador is the cloudiest country on earth because of its location) - Lower clouds over the ocean block the sun, but if the ocean warms the ocean, this creates more clouds (negative feedback) - High Cirrostratus clouds don’t block the sun so this is a positive feedback. SOCIAL UNCERTAINTY (how will we progress in the future) is bigger than model uncertainty 10-01 Climate Basics & Other Greenhouse Gasses (INSERT slide from lectures here!) Ocean Acidification: Ph of ocean is lowering, and this creates less carbonates available for calcification (formation of calcium carbonate) by marine organisms such as corals (leads to bleaching) Carbon-silicate / weathering cycle (some people want to speed this up) (insert slides here) We used to think most of carbon (poop carbon death) layering on ground was because of gravity, but this is also because of ocean mixing and migrant pumps. Migrant pumps: fish that bring down organic carbon (lively animals) however, warmer waters stress plankton, as well as getting rid of available oxygen. Ocean Mixing: cold and dense below, warm above, differences can become TOO extreme, and mess up with ocean mixing. Most abundant phytoplankton: DIATOMS responsibly for 20% of oxygen (but very sensitive to ocean acidification, the silica they need becomes less soluble or available) Whale poop (nitrates, phosphates, potassiums) fertilizes the ocean, then making more whales that sequesters carbon, then whale falls also sequester carbon. “Great Whale Conveyer Belt” - whales transport nutrients globally. GREENHOUSE GASSES - Water vapor, Ozone, Carbon dioxide, CFCs, Methane CH4, Nitrous Oxide (Kyoto Protocol HGH) Why does Kyoto not include water vapor? : - Water vapor is condensable, it becomes liquid when it is up high  - It doesn't mix globally (only up there for about 2 weeks) Warming Potentials of Greenhouse Gasses: (Insert doc here with Global Warming Potential) - We put everything in terms of 1 GWP for Carbon Dioxide GWP: Global Warming Potential: how uch a given mass of GHG will ( KNOW THIS INSERT) Methane only lasts for 12 years up in the atmosphere. CO2 is never degraded, it is just part of the carbon cycle. 20 year window methane impact changes, 82 x stronger GHG than Carbon dioxide, bigger than 30. Shorter lifetimes than CO2, the effect will be LARGER when you look at a shorter window. Methane: The Global Warming Potential depends on properties of gas: - Absorption of infrared radiation - Spectral location of absorbing wavelengths - Atmospheric lifetime (INSERT SLIDES^^^) Terminology used in carbon markets Carbon Dioxide Equivalence: for a given mixture and amount of GHG, what would have the same GWP when measured over a time window. Taking mass by global warming potential of that amount. Carbon Equivalent: how much carbon has been emitted, no oxygens! Multiply by 0.27 Methane: (more GHG heating than Co2, responsible for half of global heating) 1. Who is emitting the methane? Anaerobic things loveeeeee manure. 2. We cannot break cellulose, we use anaerobic organisms to digest it for us ARCHAEANS! 3. Multi chamber, sheep and cows have such a large ecological footprint because cows can release 264 pounds of methane a day for COW 4. Rice is world's second largest crop. MEthane emissions from this low dissolved oxygen environment will GO UP! Double the amount of methane produced per kilogram of rice produced.  Natural Sources Anthropogenic - Wetlands - Natural gas and oil installations, coal - Termites mining - Ocean - Enteric fermentation in domestic - Freshwater animals - Enteric fermentation in ruminant - Rice paddies animals - Animal wastes - Methane Hydrate - Sewage treatment - Landfills - Biomass - Dams Sinks: Dry permafrost turns to Co2 from bacteria photosynthesizing?, if it is wet after thawing in a low oxygen environment archean decomposers will do their thing and create methane as byproduct If it warms up and it is wet, than it will be METHANE which is worse than Co2 Yedoma: carbon rich permafrost covering large areas in Arctic under lakes, melting yedoma is source of methane and co2. Methane is responsible for HALF of the heating of climate change. Burning Methane: It will turn into Co2 through combustion, this flaring is suspicious, and it is vented by companies! Or alot is released accidentally due to faulty equipment, spilled, leakage! - 1000 super emitter events March 2023, in turk, 20 miles, 434 tonnes of methane per hour. - Then Pennsylvania, methane is used as a fuel, why is it being released? - 80% of gas areas, they should just sell extra gas captured! Hydroelectric dams: NO! It is not emissions free, it will become dissolved oxygen, archaeans come to play and release methane for decades!!! Majorly flooding these reservoirs causes decomposition of vegetation! - Fossil fuel power plants: methane emissions from reservoirs ABATEMENT OPTIONS FOR METHANE: - Animal feed: CRIPST cut methane to put bacteria in guts of cows to over power archaeans processes from methane as a by-product to Co2. Or adding seaweed to cattle feed, reducing cow burps and farts about 70%.  - Waste Management in landfills: capture methane from landfills, we should capture instead of flaring methane! - Degasification in coal mines: - Reducing leaks in natural gas production: “Biogas” - “renewable natural gas” → take manure, household waste, let archaeans do the thing and capture methane for heating, cooking fuel. Organic waste diverted from landfills, to put to a digester plant, broken down by archeans and taking the methane to use. - Dairy farms should do this as well! Nitrous Oxide - Agricultural soil management 75% (fertilizers put on our crops, 50% only taken up by plants, then rest causes eutrophication etc. NITRIFICATION and DENITRIFYING BACTERIA! (she said we don't need to know this) - Target our fertilizer use, 273 x stronger than Co2! Right type, right amount at the right time and right place: this will reduce Nitrous oxide Chlorofluorocarbons: Montreal Protocol, immediate cause and effect: aerosols, we replaced them with the HCFs that were still considered GHG, even though they did not deplete the ozone. Why did the concentrations of CFCs still go up even after the stop of putting them up: emissions went down, not to zero, still emissions happening, so to stop concentrations from going up, you need to turn OFF the CFCs Climate Change Consequences Why 1.5 - small developing island states advocate for 1.5 (look into this) Sea level rise → “easy” water has a known expansion coefficient, warm it up by a couple of degrees, you know the sea level rise: steric sea level rise, due to ocean expansion. The Union of Concerned Scientists say this is wrong, it didn't match predictions from back. The LEVELS get higher (exponential) - Sea surface temperature: thermometer on the surface, not too different from total temperature. Ocean surface on top will respond to the heated atmosphere (but not the water from the bottom). Sea level is NOT level. If you start with warm water and heat it up, it will expand differently than starting with cold water. Sea level IS NOT level! It responds to global winds, pushing the ocean surface around. Current sea level rise RATES in mm per year, most high levels by australia. SCIENCE CAN IDENTIFY WHICH COMMUNITIES AND ISLANDS ARE MOST VULNERABLE! (this is accurate) Science and policy! Measurement, this will stay accurate where SLR is fastest. - Best case 2.6 worst case 8.5. Two different causes: Steric sea level rise: ocean expanding Melting Land Ice: 1. Floating Ice (sea ice) sea water frozen and floating on top. If it all melts, it provides ice for ecosystems, but SEA LEVEL WOULD NOT RISE. 2. Gravitation effect of melting ice sheets a. Sea levels might fall. Ice sheet sits on top of crust, it attracts the ocean level gravitationally up towards the ice sheet. b. Weight of the ice sheet pushes earth crust down to the mantle. If it melts, it comes back up (springs back) and the gravitational pull is los so the sea level actually lowers. IT REBOUNDS If greenland and antarctica drop, then sea level will also drop. SL will fall, it is not level, and it rises differently in different areas Effect of temperature on plant growth: - Organisms can respond to changes, however, photosynthesis rate. - Hardly any crop plants in ideal temperature, we just grow them Crop production suffers in areas above this temperature (sub sarah africa) Change in Precipitation: Where it is wet today, it will get wetter, where it is dry, it will get dryer (ITCZ mentioned) - Will benefit from a rise in temperature (in some places and a decline in others ) related to climate temp change and agricultural output. Crop reductions in some, increases in some. - Southern cell: - Northern Cell: - Further from equator production gets better, closer gets WORSE! Changes in hurricanes frequency and strength. THERE WILL BE LESS hurricanes in the future. 1. Will there be change in area they form 2. Will they provide fewer or more hurricanes? Wildfires: 1. Wildfires will be ignited more often (vague, 80% are lit by people) 2. Once they are ignited, are they getting bigger (yes) A lot of hurricanes start on islands off of the Sahara where the ocean is quite warm. Lots of evaporation clouds : genesis region for hurricanes in atlantic. can start in the Caribbean as well. Fishhook shape: corrillos effect! pushed around by local highs and lows: bermuda high! sits over bermuda when it is strong, it can take cyclones and not allow them to hook up (corrillos effect) If it is weak, corrillos allow it to do stuff and stay off shore. Warm water fuels the hurricane, warmer water the more intense it will be! if it forms 10 miles off coast, they need a long distance to really get going. if they cross the gulf of mexico, there is. pool of warm water which takes it from category 3 to 5! why do they peter out because they hit colder water up north at the end of the fish hook! Ocean waters will be warmer further north than now, so they will travel further north! warm water can allow it to travel further distances Damage caused by the wind and storm surge. a hurricane pushes the ocean in front of it and makes a bulge. This is damaging to coastal communities, not the wind. Higher sea level rise higher the storm surge will come l. to land ! Factors influencing hurricane occurrence:warm ocean humid air presence of spin in the atmosphere. convergence of human air! hurricanes do not form with a weather front!!! ENSO modulates vertical wind shear: It needs horizontal winds in the upper atmosphere , strong winds blow it off the side making it harder to form if the ul wings are high. WIND SHEAR - El niño = strong shear and fewer hurricanes - Warm phase el niño, water is warmer but FEWER hurricanes, bc enhanced wind shear! - More hurricanes in the cold phase of ENSO! - Hurricanes need moisture fuel instability and vertical wind shear making them grow is decided on warmth or water. greater warm waters, once formed it will become really big! warm = more evaporation more moisture in atmosphere so they create more rain than previous which cause more flooding! - The ice shelf lies in ice! - Glaciers are restricted to high latitude and elevation in present climate - There are tropical glaciers (explain this) - Greenland is losing ice mass (more here) up and down is seasonal but overall decline! - Both glaciers and ice flow by gravity! Sliding by internal deformation How do ice sheets get into the ocean: outlet glaciers! glaciers are retreating, the ice melts and turns into rivers. a delta forms at the end of an outlet glacier! Hanging balance between sea water and salt water (glaciers are freshwater) this messes with thermohaline circulation (lots of freshwater) Mars has fluvial waves, delta looking features. loss of ice mass in antarctica: melts at top, big cracks form, warmer water goes down to the floor and it lubricates the bottom. The gravitational force can move easily since lubricant is there. you add area when you crack a big chunk of ice, it melts according to how much of it is exposed to warmth around the sides now instead of just at the bottom, you are making more surface available for melting. Greenland's melting is a lot faster than the surface area effect, it is impacted also by basal melting: ablation. warm water is brought under the ice shelf. ocean currents get underneath and melt it from below! both processes lead to fast rate of melt! warm water under shelf, warm air between cracks - more likely to have heat waves since it is only one standard deviation away from the mean! - the heat wave intensified stronger, length frequency and season! - sea ice is an indicator of global heating but not contributing to SLR 10/08 Climate Change Consequences - Human Health Effects are often indirect: - If the climate in Africa becomes warmer and wetter, then we will see an increase in mosquitoes that carry pathogens…this increases Malarai, not about human tolerance, but vector behavior. Malaria: 100 countries have endemic malaria (there all the time) They also have epidemics (there all the time, but every once in a while there are big breakouts). Malaria used to be prevalent in other parts of the world, but not eliminated from everywhere. - Malaria is declining in most parts of the world, but there is a big increase in Venezuela because their health care system is falling apart. They cannot get vaccinated, the mosquitoes have not grown, just the inability to get proper care. Malaria Life Cycle: 1. Cycle within the mosquito (they do not live very long) but they have to bite an already infected person, then they will incubate a pathogen inside. The pathogen does not live very long either. A middle aged mosquito would die before the pathogen is ready to be passed. (human to mosquito to human) 2. Many cycles going on. The mosquito cycle, and the growth of the pathogen, and US our cycle. Malaria doesn't kill that many people, mostly young people, but adults can withstand it. Malaria takes a spike when it gets warm and wet during rainfall. (El Nino southern oscillation) - If we can predict rainfall, we can indirectly predict malaria conditions (breakout) EL NINO comes at Christmas time WHAT IS DIFFERENCE between El and La Nino When the world is warmer, there are more el ninos, we will expect more el ninos. You feel it most in the sea surface temperatures el nino - particularly cold, la nina - particularly warm NO DIRECT WAY to measure if there is malaria or not. Two Factors in Transmission: 1. How long it takes for the pathogen to develop in mosquito 2. How long the mosquito will live after the pathogen has developed a. Both depend on the ambient temperature. Relationship between parasites and temperature: EIP shortens at higher temps, so mosquitoes are infected sooner. - 30 degrees celsius is the right temp. (global average temp 17 degrees do not have to worry). Schustisinuasis: caused by a parasite Zika Virus: - Mosquito transmitted disease, not as deadly, lethal to children. Lyme Disease - Difficult to diagnosis, doctors did not know what this was, it was misdiagnosed for many years. West Nile Virus Covid 19: The pangolin has been falsely accused. Dryer climate → negative changes in food production, reduced nutrition → stunting and morbidity in children. Direct Effects: through mainly to be excess mortality and morbidity from extreme events. Heat waves are more frequent, lasting longer, and season is longer, and intensity is also increasing. 2003 Heat Wave in Europe: - 15,000 deaths in France - Possible 70,000 all-cause mortality. - No AC becuase nights are cold, elderly people died of heat exacerbated pre-existing conditions. Wet bulb temperature; this is the lowest temperature that may be achieved by evaporating cooling of a water-wetted, ventilated surface. If air is laden with water, then evaporation cooling does not work. WBT above 35 degrees is dangerous for humans and animals that sweat—cows, horses, zebras, hippos. Psychrometer: measures wet and dry bulb temperature HEAT = loss of productivity Most climate change impacts are indirect Climate change causes a natural system change which causes health consequences. Direct effects are mostly associated with heat waves. Productivity of outdoor workers declines in higher temperatures, even in places that are normally hot, as in tropics. 10-10 Lecture 12 Climate Solutions - Energy Systems Conventional (fossil) & Renewables Coal: - Plant matter - 100-400 million years ago - Compressed → turns into coal like matter - Peat→lignite→subbituminous→bituminous→anthracite - Anthracite is hard to extract - Low grade coal can just be scraped up - China and US have a lot of lignite - COAL- C6H4 - Combustion! C6H4 + O2→ H2O and CO2 - Exothermic→ releases heat - Coal is hard to transport - Africa and South America have little coal - Deposits may exist in Greenland and Antarctica When we burn coal, we release more co2 than h20. South africa - most prosperous Oil: 50-100 million years ago Petroleum is under oil in fairly young sediments. Not land plants, but instad things that had inhabited the ocean. Oil and natural gas are often found together The ocean is not the next saudi arabia, but it will have some oil in the crust. Like coal, oil comes in grades. - Sweet: - Sour: sulfites in it (must be extracted before refined into gasoline) US consumes more than it produces but Africa produces more than it consumes Most of yet to be discovered oil will be found off shore, maybe in the arctic. Natural Gas: not quite the same as Methane (CH4) - All about ratio of hydrogen to carbon Tar Sands: lots of carbon, but cannot flow or be pumped. Using tremendous amount of water, you can transport it. - water intensive and very high environmental costs (NO NEED TO DO THIS!) Renewables: Nuclear Power: SMR small modularized reactors may have a future. - Nuclear power - Lots of little ones (safer, energy output coud be regulated) - PROBLEM: storage - Finnland has creed a solution: tubes made out of copper, put waste material in? Hydroelectricity: - Falling water drives a turbine to create electricity - you need a dam. - We built too many dams! (what does this cause?) - You need mountain areas, high mountain dams. - Non Mountain: Inga Dam in DRC on Congo River Solar Energy: All of this energy could power everything on earth forever (no surprise why such a big focus on solar) Why do we use 0.5 and 0.3 % of solar and wind energy? World total is 19% renewable energy (including hydro) Wind power: rotor blades are getting bigger and taller. How many wind turbines do you need to replace a 16 terrawatts, one wind turbine will give you 3 - 5 mega watts. WE NEED HUNDREDS OF WINDMILLS to generate anything worthwhile They take up a huge area relative to a conventional power plant - Largest produce up to 8 MW - Up high = to get out of turbulence of lower things, they want strong consistent winds. Wind strength is greater at a higher height. Challenges: - Bird strikes: turbines do not kill as many birds as buildings and windows! - Blades running too fast causes fires  - Wind turbines create INFRASOUND (NOT MEANT TO HEAR!) low frequency that we cannot hear, but it is an acoustic wave. (what are the implications of this?!) The Betz Limit of wind turbine efficiency – 40% 100 energy in, 40 watts out (0.4). Natural energy in, electric energy out. 40% is actually pretty good for wind farms, half the energy is pretty good. Turbines need to be spaced at least 5 blade diameters apart to avoid interference. Wind theft: the second wind turbine behind the first turbine is less efficient because the air going through becomes turbulent. Winds are often strongest in remote places. (strongest winds are down at the end of south america) a long way from where it is needed. THIS IS A PROBLEM! No one lives here Winds over the ocean are typically stronger than over land. SOMETIMES in denmark, they get 100% of their wind from wind farm! SOLAR: in theory, the most abundant sourc - Not used in industrial revolution, only particular wavelengths cause photoeletrons to be ejected. “Like the greenhouse effect”, shining electromagenet radiation, some matieral swill free up electrons to move and create energy, but if you do it with long wave radiation (sun), nothing happnes.  - Cost of producing one watt of energy from a cell has decreased from 76 dollars to less than 50 cents. Photo You need light, but you do not need heat. You could do this in antarctica ( make panels VERY absorbing). - Up the efficiency, make it 30%, half the area!!! (FOR SILICON PV CELLS!) Challenges: - They need direct sunlight, every day has a night, global average number of daylight hours useful for PV is 5 hours a day. Why does Morocco have so many solar thermal companies? There is no way the UK can get down to 0 emissions. It needs to import energy from Morroco so that they can make their 0 target. MOROCCO is money making.  Heat is much easier to store than electrons! There are not many places where you can have solar and wind energy because where it is windy, it is not sunny. Solar energy is seasonal. From 89,000 terawatts, you multiply by 24 / 5 (only 5 hours a day), then you multiply by efficienty. Wind 370→ 138 for efficiency If we can capture this amount of energy, we will SOLVE the problem! 10-15 Geoengineering: solar Radiation Management (SRM), Carbon Capture Use & Sequestration (CCUS), Direct Air Capture (DAC) Geoengineering: intentional large scale manipulation of the environment This is because : - Slow progress of mitigation effort to reduce CO2 emissions - Evidence of increasing climate impacts (sea-ice, Greenland ice sheet) - Irreversibility of CO2 induced climate change (solomon paper) - 2006: Paul Crutzen: idea od examining geoengineering feasibility and impacts from scientific point of view  SRM: WILL NOT CHANGE AMOUNT OF CO2 in atmosphere, but temperature might drop. SRM: acts on incoming short wavelength solar radiation: schemes to enhance albedo Nasa says that between the sun and earth, we could place a defocusing lens, so that energy that comes to earth is “focused away”. If you put it at the lagrange point #1 , then this will stop so much from hitting earth. Nasa also thinks that we could put a bunch of steerable sunshields into orbit to block incoming solar radiation (this would cost 150,000 rocket launches) Low clouds block the sun The biggest uncertainty: cloud radiative feedback (they cool the planet) Cloud Brightening: Increase cloud albedo to reduce amount of solar radiation reach the earth Clouds are salty: convection currents, salt is propelled into the atmosphere where it precipitates into making clouds! SOOO we can make more of them, and brighter! Ships need to use better quality diesel fuel! - if it is highly sulfurous, it is BAD. good - not sulfurous. Cost of fuel is not a large component of shipping things around, where there is lots of shipping, it gets warmer. Clouds went away from the sulfide in the atmosphere (aerosol) from the ships! Cruise ships that pull up keep their engines running (that is how they generate electric power). - Cloud bleaching was tested in Australia's great barrier reef to combat coral bleaching - THIS WILL MAKE CLOUDS LAST LONGER (an average cloud lasts about a week, but if you add more salt crystals, so it can last longer) Aeroslas are NOT gasses: have potentially large negative forces (Surface albedo, cloud albedo effect yay but then the negatives outweigh (GHG emissions) Four different ways how salt particles can change clouds: Eight difference processes to consider, only 4 are really understood. Volcanic ash spreads in the stratosphere. You CANNOT keep the volcano local, it will spread through the ATMOSPHERE only!!!! In stratosphere, nothing changed. Troposhphere a big dip and surface temperature BIG dip because the ash of the volcano spreads all around, impacting temperature of globe. In troposphere: some change Sulfate Aerosols Injections: these balloons can be put into the stratosphere with sulfur. Tethered Balloon Delivery System: lots of energy is needed to do this, producing emissions to create balloons, and you're not even reducing emissions, just shading. Tiny Glass beads: put glass beads on sea ice to prevent melting.  CARBON CAPTURE: acts on the outgoing long wavelength terrestrial radiation. - This DOES affect atmospheric concentrations and directly affects it. PREVENTING carbon from entering the atmosphere or removing it from the atmosphere. Separate CO2 from natural gas, then take it in liquid form, put it back underground into salient aquifer. Here in this aquifer it is useless (and located quite shallow.) The gas is bellow, and they are able to drill through it to get natural gas. (session 13) PROBLEM: continuous monitoring, making sure the liquid co2 doesnt leak. Liquid plume of CO2 builds up and you much watch it! What if it leaks: ???? Coal fired power plants produce a large fraction of emissions. In order to strip carbon dioxide from glasses, they used an AMINE to capture CO2. Take exhaust from power plant, mix it with an amine (in liquid form), the co2 binds with amine molecules! They do not undergo chemical reaction. Then you separate the CO2 crom Amine through heat, you then use amine again, and the CO2 can be stored in some way. PROBLEM: requires HEAT! Source of heat comes from power plant, which reduce efficiency of power plants. Reduces output energy of power plants. Geological Sequestration: (underground) Now you have captured CO2 and it is liquid, now we have to put it somewhere. Nowwe can put it underground. - There is enough storage underground to sequester ALL Co2! #1: Advanced (Enhanced) Oil Recovery: Oil comes out after you drill, then you pump it when it doesnt come out as easliy. Then it becomes low. If there is still oil down there, you can put an injection well, then you can push oil towards production well and this can sequester CO2, while also producing oil?? SALINE AQUIFER: Liquid CO2 is pumped underground into aquifers that contain brackish to be used for human consumption or agriculture. PROBLEM: monitor that CO2 does not escape. MONTIOR, keep drilling around to make sure that it is not leaking. Since it is a liquid underground, it is under pressure, and CAN BECOME A GAS. #3 Sequestration that creates solid products PROS: solid is immobile so no risk of leakage! Most abundant rock type on Earth is basalt; it is very porous! Liquid CO2 reacts with silicates to create Calcium carbonates which sequesters CO2 into Basalt. Carbon is inbound into solid so it cannot escape. Largest known olvinine sponge is OMAN OPHIOLITE. DIRECT AIR CAPTURE: a filter covered with an absorbing fluid (amine) - takes CO2 from atmosphere and removes it! Co2 captured, requiring heat that should be given from a non-fossil fuel source so that it ACTUALLY has an impact. Challenge: Not how you capture it, but how you make it energy efficient!!! Not a technology challenge, an energy challenge. - You can remove Co2 from the atmosphere using an ion exchange resin Carbon dioxide spreads everywhere! You cannot keep it in one area in atmosphere: reverse is that you can take Carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere ANYWHERE! It will help the planet throughout. Expert Opinions On the Risks: “How would you rate risks of different geoengineering ideas” - 10 is highest: Stratospheric aerosol injection (10) - Afforestation (2) - Solid carbon sequestration: super cheap - CCUS is very expensive! Stratospheric aerosol is high effective and high affordability (but it is risk) Afforestation is very affordable, and medium effective, but very safe! 10/17/2024 Living Systems: What is Biodiversity and Why Does it Matter? Trophic Levels: (producer, primary consumer, secondary consumer, tertiary consumer) Pyramids can represent total biomass (total weight of trophic level). - There are fewer foxes and bunnies than producers because of the energy loss. (reduction in energy) - Primary energy is lost from producer to primary consumer (energy loss) because entropy: when you transfer energy, heat is lost (cellular respiration → not all energy from eating a leaf goes into making more bunny). The bunny is also spending the ATP energy in being a bunny (metabolic energy, movement, etc). Also bunnies dying of old age does not contribute to next trophic level either. - 90 percent reduction in biomass because of universe tax Decomposer are below decomposing (more here) Like a bear, a bear eats berries, not only primary consumers. Ways that living things interact: (don't need to know this yet) 1. Consumer resource (whom eats whom) 2. Competition Top down (removing wolves from yellowstone) Bottom Up (messing with producers: grasses) → cascades How Stratospheric aerosol injections may impact global systems and human health outcomes: this could decrease ozone layer, come back down causing acid rain, influence methane cycle, keeping sunlight from photosynthesizing plants, decrease precipitation, effect soil ph, moisture, etc). What is Biodiversity? “The variability among living organisms and the ecological complexities of which they are part” - Genetic diversity - how many genes are heterozygous - Ecological relationships Communicty / ecosystems diversity: consumer resource, mutualism, parasitism, commensalism - ( ) one more here! INSERT PRAIRIE DOG SLIDE HERE AND VOCAB! Community: what are they eating, pathogens. Living things in a certain area Ecosystem: energy flux and cycling of nutrients (community + non living stuff (energy, nutrient cycling) Biosphere: global weather patterns, global processes Species Diversity: Animals, fungi, “protists”, then archaea and bacteria. Yes coal came from plants: this is why it has a structure while oil and gas came from smaller things and cannot be held. Petroleum and natural gas is not made from plants, tiny things like protists (cyanobacteria)!!! Dendroica fusca - correct writing of species name. Species: What is a species? - Reproduction (can they mate?) - can hybrid baby also reproduce? - Physical features Terrestrial-vertebrate species diversity (richness) - how many species are there? - Closer to equator = more species Measuring species diversity 1. Species richness 2. Relative abundance/even-ness How is new genetic diversity made: MUTATIONS (new allele appears) Wolf has all genetic diversity as in dog breeds: we just genetically selected things out WHY DO WE CARE? More is better, we don't want a population to become so small and inbreeding (causing defromations) More genetic diversity better than less = more resistance to things that effect survival and ecological reproduction. If the environment changes, then genetic diversity represents evolutionary potential. Directional selection: favors one direction (melanic difference in moths) Cant species adapt to human change and climate change: Well yes, some but there will be shooter generations to respond that are weedy (cockroaches) longer generation times with few offspring each generation have more trouble responding to environment changes. Diversity, then look at a genetic basis (is it nurture only not nature, is it how much food you get as a baby, or something that that you got from your parents?) →look at offspring - Not 100% nature or nurture BUT is there enough of a signal to show genetic component that natural selection may act upon?! (THIRD REQUIRMEMTN is last part of things to consider) Does it matter to your survival and reproduction to have something! 10-22-2024 Social Science for Sustainable Development Guest Speaker: Gernot Wagner [email protected] 1. Climate risk → known knowns 2. Climate Policy = Opportunity 3. Pricing Carbon “+” $200 / tCO2 = social cost of carbon (what it costs society per tonne of carbon) Median: $185, Mean $245 This is 8-10% OF GLOBAL GDP IS LOST!!!! (wow, people worried about debt) - Under Donald Trump (it was $7 because he is a moron) - (50→80, better damage estimates after Obama Administration) Average american = 14 tonnes per year Average European = 8 tonnes per year Positive Discount Rate: “We matter more than future generations” - Why do we lower the discount rate (increase social cost)? - Discount rate should be as low as possible because the future matters. Discount Rate: Hyperbolic (next minute of life matters a lot) discounting, immediate gratification matters more. - Future generations will be richer than we are today (and more equipped to handle) Small changes in average temperature, suddenly probability shifts (think normal distribution) - This leads to new extremes, increase in Mean, record hot weather. The uncertainty is COSTLY (check out “The Economist” → 25 trillion in US housing costs in the next 30 years) We need to price this negative externality implicitly. Elasticity. - Either price directly or allow cap and trade (instrument) and they are both first best solution. Climate Policy = Opportunity - Solar PV: sun, sand, and human imagination → so much growth for solar energy (in efficiency). - “Why not” - so cheap, it will be cheaper than wood soon. “Dawn of the Solar Age” - Sun sets in California, demand goes up, the sun goes down, you use gas. Then three years later, half of the increase is now batteries Longi (largest solar producer) says it will lay off about 5% of its employees, it is getting so cheap so quickly, you are making less money. Solar PV story: Tesla is solar electric car, EVs offer a techno fix, beneficial (an answer). - Massive pouting, MASSIVE COST 9.2 billion annual for next 30 years…buttttt…..HUGE net zero impacts. Once solar panel in ground, it prints electricity for free, put investments forward (good for economy), and then, you save money as the consumer. BCG – make more money going green (assumption is policy will drive that). INFLATION REDUCTION ACT This transition costs money