Risk Analysis In Practice PDF

Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis [email protected] Updated Nov-2022 PRACTICAL BASES FOR RISK ANALYSIS Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis • • • • • • • • • • Practical Bases for Risk...

Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis [email protected] Updated Nov-2022 PRACTICAL BASES FOR RISK ANALYSIS Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis • • • • • • • • • • Practical Bases for Risk Analysis • High subjectivity • High-moderate uncertainty • Based only on perceptions To obtain a preliminary assessment of the possible level of risk based on the subjective perception of the society and involved stakeholders. • • • • • Practical Bases for Risk Analysis 4 4 5 5 2 3 ZONE 2 4 2 3 4 3 4,20 HIGH 2,80 MEDIUM 1,80 LOW 4,40 HIGH 2,60 MEDIUM 3,40 MEDIUM 2,80 MEDIUM 2,40 MEDIUM 3,40 MEDIUM 2,60 MEDIUM Norte: Ancón-Ventanilla Delta Río Rimac - Márquez Costa Verde – La Perla La Chira – La Herradura Lurín - Chorrillos Pucusana- San Bartolo EXPOSURE 2,60 3,40 2,40 2,80 3,40 2,40 HAZARDIMPACT ASSESSMENT 2,80 MEDIUM 2 4 2 2 4 3 Other nonclimate HAZARD 2 - IMPACT 2 2 2 2 2 Droughts 2,40 MEDIUM 3 3 2 2 2 Heat waves HAZARD-IMPACT INDICATORS Erosion 3 Flooding 3,00 MEDIUM 4,00 HIGH 1,20 LOW 2,40 MEDIUM 4,60 HIGH 4,00 HIGH 2,73 MEDIUM 3,93 HIGH 1,80 LOW 2,67 MEDIUM 4,07 HIGH 3,07 MEDIUM RISK Practical Bases for Risk Analysis VULNERABILITY • Requires (usually simple) data to characterize the different risk components • Moderate uncertainty To obtain an estimate of the level of risk by basing the study on indicators of limited complexity and thresholds. Norte: AncónVentanilla Delta Río Rimac Márquez Costa Verde – La Perla La Chira – La Herradura Lurín Chorrillos PucusanaSan Bartolo Zone Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis • Based only on expert knowledge and available (simple) data • Relative subjectivity • High-moderate uncertainty To obtain a subjective but at the same time expert assessment of the possible level of risk. Practical Bases for Risk Analysis SAN FELIPE DE PUERTO PLATA 1,31 EXPOSURE 36,40% Percentage of households with high vulnerability to CC 16,41% -53,52% 2,90% 0,00% 36,40% 0,00% MEDIUM 162.922 -5,27% 3.165,90 -5,27% 2,73% 0,00% MEDIUM 68,91 3,13% 2,03 54,96% 752,58 -3,62% HIGH SSP2 (4.5) SSP3 (7.0) 16,41% -53,52% 2,90% 0,00% 36,40% 0,00% MEDIUM 148.940 -13,40% 2.894,20 -13,40% 2,73% 0,00% MEDIUM 66,43 -0,58% 1,55 18,32% 764,92 -2,04% HIGH 2040-2060 16,41% -53,52% 2,90% 0,00% 36,40% 0,00% MEDIUM 137.737 -19,91% 2.676,51 -19,91% 2,73% 0,00% MEDIUM 66,82 0,00% 1,58 20,61% 762,42 -2,36% HIGH SSP5 (8.5) SSP3 (7.0) 7,80% -77,90% 2,90% 0,00% 36,40% 0,00% MEDIUM 95.600 -44,41% 1.857,70 -44,41% 2,73% 0,00% MEDIUM 51,88 -22,36% 0,29 -77,86% 700,42 -10,30% LOW 2080-2100 7,80% -77,90% 2,90% 0,00% 36,40% 0,00% MEDIUM 85.322 -50,39% 1.657,98 -50,39% 2,73% 0,00% MEDIUM 57,50 -13,95% 1,05 -19,85% 577,05 -26,10% LOW SSP5 (8.5) Practical Bases for Risk Analysis 7,80% -77,90% 2,90% 0,00% 36,40% 0,00% MEDIUM 118.984 -30,81% 2.312,09 -30,81% 2,73% 0,00% MEDIUM 71,21 6,57% 2,04 55,73% 719,08 -7,91% HIGH SSP2 (4.5) • Requires data of medium to high spatial and temporal resolution • Requires the use of simple or high resolution impact modeling • Requires computational processing • Moderate to limited uncertainty To obtain a quantitative expression or value of the potential consequences and/or risk, based on the exposed elements considered. MEDIUM 2,90% WEIGHTED VULNERABILITY INDEX 35,30% Percentage of population living in substandard housing MEDIUM 2,73% 3.341,88 171.978 MEDIUM VULNERABILITY Percentage of low income households WEIGHTED EXPOSURE INDEX Percentage of urban area (%) Value of buildings (million USD) Population (people) WEIGHTED HAZARD INDEX 780,85 Number of days with rainfall greater than 20mm (days) Average rainfall (mm) 66,82 PRESENT HAZARD Accumulated rainfall during 5 days (mm) FLOOD RISK CAUSED BY HEAVY PRECIPITATION Practical Bases for Risk Analysis PRESENT MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM LEVEL OF RISK FLOOD RISK CAUSED BY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FLOOD RISK CAUSED BY EXTREME COASTAL EVENTS HEAT WAVE RISK CAUSED BY EXTREME PRECIPITATIONS DAMAGES RISK CAUSED BY EXTREME WINDS DAMAGES RISK CAUSED BY WILDFIRES WATER SHORTAGE RISK CAUSED BY REDUCED RAINFALL SAN FELIPE DE PUERTO PLATA HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH SSP2 (4.5) HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH SSP3 (7.0) 20402060 HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH SSP5 (8.5) HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH SSP2 (4.5) HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH LOW SSP3 (7.0) 20802100 HIGH HIGH HIGH MEDIUM HIGH LOW SSP5 (8.5) Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis US$ mill. Wind US$ mill. Coastal flooding Resid Stock Services Stock Total differences Services Stock Total differences Resid Stock 0.4026 1.2757 +0.2826 0.3141 0.9931 – 0.8731 0.1884 +0.1421 0.0463 – 0.6790 0.0493 0.1391 0.0332 0.0131 2.0928 +1.0997 0.6686 1.4542 0.1225 +0.0762 0.0924 0.0301 2.1959 +1.2028 0.7047 1.4912 0.3491 +0.3028 0.1528 0.1963 Intensive (2050) Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis ANNUAL EXPECTED DAMAGES Present BAU Sustainable (2018) (2050) (2050) Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis economic value 'how relevant is 0.5 m of flood depth to damage a 2-floored, brick material, 3 Million-worthy house?' --> translates flooding height into $ Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis water depth Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis ECOSYSTEM VALUATION Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis Practical Bases for Risk Analysis