Decision-Making Lecture 6 PDF

Decision-Making Lecture 6 APPLICATIONS IN OTHER DOMAINS Acknowledgement of Country https://healthinfonet.ecu.edu.au/learn/health-facts/overview-aboriginal-torres-strait-islander-health-status/  Lecture outline Focus questions Lecture...

Decision-Making Lecture 6 APPLICATIONS IN OTHER DOMAINS Acknowledgement of Country https://healthinfonet.ecu.edu.au/learn/health-facts/overview-aboriginal-torres-strait-islander-health-status/  Lecture outline Focus questions Lecture sections Metacognition in the legal system: What The post-identification feedback effect is the post-identification feedback effect in eyewitness identification and what can we do about it? Heuristics and biases in gambling: To The gambler’s fallacy what extent do people with gambling disorder display the gambler's fallacy and what can we do about it? Presentation of health-related information the fast-and-frugal way A Bayesian model of impulsive decision- making The University of Adelaide Slide 3  Readings for this lecture The University of Adelaide Slide 4 The post-identification feedback effect  A real-life example After identifying Ronald Cotton from a live lineup, [Jennifer] Thompson asked Detective Mike Gauldin whether she got the right guy. He said, “We thought that might be the guy. It’s the same person you picked from the photos”. This comment served to cement Jennifer Thompson’s certainty in the accuracy of her identification and contributed to the conviction of Ronald Cotton, who ultimately served 11 years in prison for a crime he did not commit. Bradfield Douglass & Smalarz (2019) The University of Adelaide Slide 6  Definition Confirming post-identification feedback—feedback that suggests that the witness made a correct identification—inflates witnesses’ recollections of how confident they were at the time of the identification. This post- identification feedback effect is particularly harmful when identifications are false because confirming feedback produces confident—but inaccurate—eyewitness evidence against an innocent suspect. And we know from Lecture 2 that confidence generally is correlated with accuracy, and it is likely that people (including jury members) take advantage of this feature of their environments. The University of Adelaide Slide 7  Extensive laboratory evidence Two meta-analyses show that participants in the feedback group in the experiment design on the next slide report higher confidence. Slide 8  Feedback Group No-Feedback Group Participants 1 Participants view a video of a crime being committed 2 Participants are asked to identify the perpetrator – usually from a series of photos that do not include the perpetrator Researchers 3 Confirming feedback: “Good, you identified the No feedback suspect.” 4 Participants answer questions about their confidence in their identification  Why does it occur? Selective cue integration The University of Adelaide Slide 10 0 1 Confirmation bias 2 3 Charman et al. (2010)  What can be done? Even if post-identification feedback is not provided often in the real world, each time it is provided, it is harmful to the case. So, what ‘system variables’ (features of the eyewitness identification process) can be put in place to avoid it? The first reading lists a number of recommendations. Watch the upcoming video showing an identification, and add shading to the tables in the slides that follow to indicate whether you think the procedure incorporates the recommended features for reducing the possibility of post-identification feedback. The first few have been completed for you. We will spend 10 minutes on this, and then you can compare your answers to mine. The relevant pages of the reading are 116 (‘Location of the photo array’) to 124 (‘Documentation: Recording the certainty statement’) inclusive. Slide 12 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxQ8bYQNAyg The Department of Justice Memorandum (2017) Location Identification procedure conducted out of earshot and view of others, and away from information or evidence (e.g., “Wanted posters”) that could influence the witness’ identification Photo Recent ? Resembles witness’ description ? Only one suspect in array ? Filler Fair; i.e., the photos are sufficiently similar so that NR photos a suspect’s photograph does not stand out Not so similar that a person who knew the suspect would find it difficult to distinguish them Yes – green; No – red; Unknown – ?; NR – not relevant to reducing the post-ID feedback effect Method of Evidence is inconclusive (few studies), but sequential might be presenting better photos Administrator’s Nil, thus ensuring the procedure is double-blind knowledge of the suspect*** Instructions to Unbiased – i.e., include the statement “the group of photographs witness may or may not contain a photograph of the person who committed the crime” Multiple other Separated from this witness, so that they cannot be a source of witnesses post-identification feedback Administrator Administrator must avoid any words, sounds, or actions that feedback suggest who the suspect is Yes – green; No – red; Unknown – ?; NR – not relevant to reducing the post-ID feedback effect Documentation The identification procedure is video- or audio-recorded, providing evidence of witness certainty reports before inevitable feedback from other sources (e.g., media) Witness’ certainty statement is recorded immediately following the witness’ identification – before inevitable feedback from other sources (e.g., media), and so that court has something with which to compare the witness’ confidence levels during the trial Witness’ willingness to testify is recorded Yes – green; No – red; Unknown – ?; NR – not relevant to reducing the post-ID feedback effect The gambler’s fallacy  Traditionally considered a consequence of applying the representativeness heuristic Heuristics Biases Representativeness Conjunction fallacy Gambler’s fallacy Base rate neglect Plous, 1993  However, it is best explained as the result of people having limited short-term memory spans Hahn & Warren (2009) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P92s3A7T8zo Memory limitations are universal, and truly random sequences that are explicitly pointed out to the individual as being examples of ‘random sequences’ are encountered in many parts of the world, so the gambler’s fallacy can be considered a universal guiding belief for other gambling errors – other erroneous gambling-related beliefs.  Well-fitting model of survey measures of erroneous beliefs about slot machine gambling Average of 10 Average of Average of 5 Average of 8 Average of Average items reflecting 31 items items items reflecting 8 items of 8 alternation reflecting reflecting belief in the reflecting items overestimation belief in belief in value cyclical nature of belief in the reflecting systems of of persistence luck power of belief in play luck rituals Natural strategies/ Supernatural gambler’s fallacy strategies Ejova et al. (2015)  What do we mean by a ‘set of supernatural beliefs’? Some universal features of supernatural beliefs around the world have been identified: Ejova & Ohtsuka (2020)  What can be done? In the second reading, the authors’ recommendation for addressing any motivations to gamble based on the gambler’s fallacy is to, as part of cognitive behavioural therapy, educate people with gambling disorder about the trap their own short-term memory is setting for them, generating beliefs about an imminent win or a temperamental Lady Luck. Summary  Timeline of Arctic science translation into policy under the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) Steindal et al. (2021) The University of Adelaide Slide 25  Lecture summary We have spent all of this week exploring applications of decision-making theories. Demonstrations of the post-identification feedback effect and subsequent research on its causes have translated into a concrete set of guidelines for obtaining eyewitness identification statements. Research on the gambler’s fallacy outside of the heuristics and biases framework is fairly new, but has some implications for additional educational messages that could be embedded within cognitive behavioural therapy for gambling disorder. 27  References Charman, S. D., Carlucci, M., Vallano, J., & Gregory, A. H. (2010). The selective cue integration framework: A theory of postidentification witness confidence assessment. Journal of Experimental Psychology. Applied, 16(2), 204–218. Ejova, A., Delfabbro, P. H., & Navarro, D. J. (2015). Erroneous gambling-related beliefs as illusions of primary and secondary control: a confirmatory factor analysis. Journal of Gambling Studies, 31(1), 133–160. Hahn, U., & Warren, P. A. (2009). Perceptions of randomness: why three heads are better than four. Psychological Review, 116(2), 454–461. Steindal, E. H., Karlsson, M., Hermansen, E. A. T., Borch, T., & Platjouw, F. M. (2021). From Arctic Science to Global Policy -Addressing Multiple Stressors Under the Stockholm Convention. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 12, 80– 107. The University of Adelaide Slide 28