Factors Affecting Air Transport Demand PDF

OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Factors Affecting Demand for Air Transport • Local and regional socioeconomic data and characteristics • Demographics • Geographic attributes • Political developments affecting the airline industry, i.e., open sky policies, trade agreements • Travel attitudes (trav...

OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Factors Affecting Demand for Air Transport • Local and regional socioeconomic data and characteristics • Demographics • Geographic attributes • Political developments affecting the airline industry, i.e., open sky policies, trade agreements • Travel attitudes (travelers’ preferences in terms of routes and destinations) • Changes in user charges • Availability of airports and airspace capacity OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Factors Affecting Demand for Air Transport • General economic situation - local, national and international • Economic factors directly related to airlines, i.e., fuel price • Competition between airlines serving the airport • Competition between other modes of transportation • Environmental constraints on the airport • Technological advancement in aeronautics, telecommunication and air navigation • Safety, security and convenience of air travel OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Forecasting Horizons Short-term forecasting (5 years or less) • Used to support near-term development • Used to support operational planning, e.g., personnel requirements • Used for incremental improvements or expansions of facilities Medium-term forecasting (6 – 10 years) • Used to plan capital investments such as extensions of existing runways, terminal buildings, adding tower facilities, etc. Long-term forecasting (11 – 20 years) • Used to plan major capital investments such as land acquisition, building new terminals, runways, taxiways, etc. OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Forecasting Models • Time series model forecasting – trend extrapolation of existing activity (Regression analysis) • Econometric model forecasting – aviation activity tied to economic measures (GDP correlation) • Market share forecasting – local activity calculated as a share of some larger aggregate forecast • Simulation – a separate method used to provide high fidelity “snapshot” estimates of how traffic flows across a network or through an airport OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Average Annual Growth Rate: Calculation Annual growth rate for year X = YEAR FIGURES TOTAL PASSENGERS ANNUAL GROWTH 2009 Actual 1,792,690 N.A 2010 Actual 3,868,048 1.16 2011 Actual 3,961,450 0.02 2012 Actual 4,081,098 0.03 2013 Actual 4,230,938 0.04 2014 Actual 4,364,796 0.03 2015 Actual 4,473,576 0.02 2016 Actual 4,577,466 0.02 2017 Actual 4,706,338 0.03 2018 Actual 4,882,250 0.04 2019 Actual 5,084,008 0.04 Average Annual Growth Rate (2011 – 2019): 0.03 (Pax for year (X+1) – Pax for year X) Pax for year X Outlier • In order to use the average annual growth rate method, outliers should not be included in the average annual growth rate calculation. • Therefore, the average annual growth rate is 0.03 (2011 – 2019). • Use this value (0.03) to forecast the annual passenger movements for the airport. OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Linear • Aircraft are parked along the face of the terminal building Kansai International Airport Source: VINCI Concessions OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Linear – Advantages & Disadvantages • Advantages: i. Offers ease of access (clear orientation) ii. Relatively short walking distance iii. Simple construction iv. Afford a high degree of flexibility for expansion i.e. expansion by linear extension of an existing structure v. Simple and low cost Baggage Handling System (BHS) • Disadvantages: i. Can only be used for lowvolume airports where the number of gates required would not necessitate an inconveniently long terminal ii. Longer walking distance for transfer passengers (if arrival and departure flow is separated) iii. Special logistics for handling of transfer bags will be required since it uses simple BHS OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Pier/Finger • Consists of a main centralised passenger processor and a series of piers (airside concourses) • Departing passengers are processed at centralised check-in facilities and walk or use the people movers to the gates (reverse process for arriving passengers) Beijing Daxing International Airport Source: CNN OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Pier/Finger – Advantages & Disadvantages • Advantages: i. Can be expanded incrementally when demand increases ii. Centralisation of resources (airline and government regulatory staff) iii. Facilitates passenger management iv. Large volume of passengers can be accommodated under one roof v. Efficient use of land • Disadvantages: i. Long taxiway routes to / from runways ii. Relatively long walking distance from check-in to boarding gate especially for transfer passengers iii. Kerbside congestion in peak periods (surface access concentration) iv. Reduced aircraft circulation and manoeuvrability v. Limited expansion capability OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Satellite • The Satellite is detached from other airport buildings and is located on the airside. Therefore, it has no landside access. • Aircraft is parked around its circumference. • Automatic People Mover (APM) will transport passengers from the main terminal building to the Satellite. McCarran International Airport (Nevada, Las Vegas) Source: Google Maps OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Satellite – Advantages & Disadvantages • Advantages: i. Centralisation of airline and government regulatory staff at the main terminal building ii. Short taxiing distance for aircraft to/ from runway iii. Flexibility to accommodate new generation aircraft developments • Disadvantages: i. High capital, operating and maintenance costs of an underground people mover system between the main terminal building and the Satellite building ii. High capital, operating and maintenance costs of baggage conveying / sorting systems iii. Lacks flexibility for expansion iv. Kerbside congestion OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Open Apron • Aircraft and aircraft-servicing functions are remotely located from the main terminal building. • The connection to the terminal is provided by transport vehicles. Also used for charter flights. Vienna International Airport Source: Wikimedia commons, Stanislav Doronenko OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Open Apron – Advantages & Disadvantages • Advantages: i. Flexibility in airside to accommodate changes in size and maneuvering characteristics in aircraft ii. Flexibility in providing additional aircraft parking positions to accommodate increases in schedule iii. Ease and speed in maneuvering aircraft in and out of parking positions iv. Having simple and smaller terminal • Disadvantages: i. High capital, operational and maintenance costs associated with the transporter vehicles ii. Increased traffic on the aprons caused by bus operations iii. Passenger are exposed to higher risk during transport from terminal to aircraft iv. Kerbside congestion OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Passenger Terminal System Purpose: • Provides the interface between the passenger airport access mode, to process the passenger for origination, termination, or continuation of an air transportation trip, and convey the passenger and baggage to and from the aircraft. Three major components of passenger terminal system:  Access Interface  Processing System  Flight Interface OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Passenger Terminal System – Access interface Access interface • Passenger transfers from the access mode of travel to the passenger processing component. • Circulation, parking, kerbside loading and unloading of passengers are the activities that take place within this component. Facilities associated with Access interface: • • • • • Kerbside. Vehicular parking facilities. Vehicular roadways. Pedestrian walkways. Service roads and fire lanes. OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Passenger Terminal System – Processing system Processing system • Passenger is processed in preparation for starting, ending or continuation of an air transport trip. • Primary activities that take place within this component are ticketing, baggage check-in, baggage claim, seat assignment, federal inspection services, and security. Facilities associated with Processing system • • • • • • • • Airline ticket counters and offices. Terminal service spaces for concessionaires. Lobby for circulation and passenger and visitor waiting areas. Public circulation space consisting of stairways, escalators, elevators and corridors. Outbound passenger space for sorting and processing baggage for departing flights. Intraline and interline baggage space. Airport administration and service areas. Federal inspection service facilities and security functions. OFFICIAL (CLOSED) \ NON-SENSITIVE Passenger Terminal System – Flight interface Flight interface • Passenger transfers from the processing component to the aircraft. • The activities that occur here include assembly, conveyance to and from the aircraft, and aircraft loading and unloading. Facilities associated with Flight interface • Concourse for circulation to departure lounges and other terminal areas. • Departure Lounge or gate hold room. • Passenger boarding device to transport enplaning and deplaning passengers between aircraft door and concourse / lounge. • Airlines operations space. • Security facilities for inspection of passengers and baggage. • Terminal services areas.