Applied Analytics for Business – Agriculture PDF

Applied Analytics for Business – Agriculture Dr. Ravi Shankar Prof – Data Science (AI -ML) Dean – Enterprise Solutions & Academic Collaborations https://www.linkedin.com/in/ravi-shankar-70584b1/ [email protected] Second & Third Sessions , 29th AUG , 2023 AgTech | Indian Agriculture | Ag 4.0 | Data Faculty Profile : Dr. Ravi Shankar INTRODUCTION • Background: PhD - Econometrics, Entrepreneur, Start-up Mentor, Social Impact Investor, Data Science Thought Leader, Senior Venture Partner • Current Focus: AI adoption in Business, Deep Learning, XAI, ML Operations, Design Thinking, OB & Strategy • Sectoral Exposure: multiple sectors straddling BFSI / Pharma / Manufacturing / Retail / Tech • Overall Experience : 30 Yrs. Applied Analytics for Business - Agriculture: Learning Journey Five sessions of 90 mins each First session Second session Third session AgTech & Agri 4.0 & Agri Data Fourth session Fifth session IntroductionThe Agricultural Challenge & Solutions Agriculture in India AI-ML Applications in Agri – use cases Real World Example STRUCTURE & Learning outcomes… AgTech Start-up's Indian Agri Ag 4.0 Data in Agri What is AgriTech? Usage of technology in agriculture practices to increase overall yield, eﬃciently managing time, reducing cost and increasing proﬁtability for farmers. Plant Health and Nutrition Animal Health and Nutrition Equipment and Data Food Technology • includes novel plant biologicals, breeding techniques, soil amendments, bio-stimulants, and biopesticides. • includes animal disease vaccines and medicines, new animal feeds, genetic makeup, and livestock management. • includes aerial monitoring, precision agriculture, agricultural equipment linked by the internet, big data, and data analysis services. • includes cultured meat, novel ingredients, plantbased proteins, food safety, new production methods, and agricultural marketplace. Agritech players are transforming the way agriculture is traditionally being done across all stages of the value chain. ► For instance, players in market linkages: farm inputs segment are seamlessly blending technology with physical infrastructure to offer farm inputs at a greater price certainty ► Precision agriculture and farm management players are helping farmer improve their yields by up to 30% ► Quality management and traceability players are helping farmers realize better realizations by incentivizing high quality produce ► Players operating in supply chain tech and output market linkages segment are eliminating inefficiencies such as high wastage of farm produce, which is a win-win for both farmers as well as consumers ► Financial services players could serve 30% of farmer households through access to credit, and 65% of farmer households through access to crop insurance Hypothesis for today’s session….. Start-up's have the power to transform Start-up's solve a real problem & are innovation driven Start-up's are driven and energetic AgFoodTech Start-up’s can usher in Agri 4.0 AgFoodTech Start-up’s can bring in efficiencies AgFoodTech Start-up’s can address moon-shot predicaments AgFoodTech Start-up’s can turbocharge AgriBiz while balancing SDG’s Motivation 🚀 AgriTech is a sunshine sector that is solving real problems of our farmers with the help of technology and data solutions. 🚀 There is no substitute for food 😁. #FoodSafety and #Sustainability are critical. 🚀 Agriculture continues to be the backbone of the Indian economy. 🚀 AgTech is paving the way for meaningful innovation investments in agriculture. 🚀 The Agritech sector is finally opening the portals to enhance and support the Govt. initiatives in agriculture through PublicPrivatePartnerships (PPP) There has been a consistent increase in the funding raised by entrepreneurs in agritech, with new-age start-ups raising record funding rounds from leading venture capital and private equity funds globally. It is estimated that the Indian agritech startups will create a value pool worth $30-35 Bn by 2025. Agritech is slowly reducing the information asymmetry present in the agriculture sector thanks to mobile phones and free and cheap data. If domestic production capabilities are fine-tuned through agritech solutions, India’s potential for Horticulture export is far greater than its software export. Facilitating market linkages for the farmers and expanding into Southeast Asian markets is a key focus area for AgTech Startup’s. AI can unlock a $127B opportunity by reducing food waste Scaling up AI’s deep learning technology with a circular-economy vision could revolutionize the way food is grown, designed, purchased, and enjoyed. AI can have the biggest impact on the transition to a circular food system: • sourcing food grown regeneratively and locally where appropriate, • designing out avoidable food waste, and • designing and marketing healthier food products. How AI can unlock a $127B opportunity by reducing food waste (mckinsey.com) Top 5 AgTech Trends to Watch The Rise of Problem Solvers: • The agtech industry will continue to grow as companies try to solve problems of sustainability, pesticide and herbicide resistance, antibiotic replacements, farm level productivity, and the challenging economics of traditional agricultural methods. An Increasingly Diverse Landscape. • Since 2014, 282 agtech companies have raised $5.5 billion of private capital across 481 transactions in the U.S. and Canada. Plant Health and Nutrition has attracted the most investment, with 159 deals raising $2.2 billion, or 40 percent of all capital raised. Robust Capital Raising Activity. Smaller Deal Sizes Fragmented Investor Base • Agtech funding experienced substantial growth between 2014 – 2018, increasing from $828 million raised in 2014 to $1.4 billion in 2018, which represents a 13 percent CAGR. The average agtech capital raise has nearly doubled in size from $7.7 million in 2014 to $13.1 million in 2018, with activity growing most significantly in Food Technology and Plant Health and Nutrition. • For the five-year period, the average M&A deal size was $11.5 million, with 61 percent of all capital raises smaller than $5 million and 27 percent larger than $10 million. Since 2014, 86 agtech companies have closed 128 transactions larger than $10 million. Plant Health and Nutrition had the most transactions (44 total) with deal sizes greater than $10 million. Excluding the three largest transactions in each segment, the average deal size is $8.4 million. • Since 2014, 219 institutional investors, including venture capital firms and family offices, have bet on agtech with transactions larger than $10 million in size. Of note, more than 65 percent of those investors have participated in only one-off transactions. The 10 most active venture capital firms have made 112 agtech investments. Agri-tech can attract $10 billion investment over the next 10 years: FICCI-PwC report • Titled “Agri-start-ups: Heralding next level of agricultural transformation,” the report reveals that the existing start-ups in the country, estimated at over 600, account for merely one per cent of the potential market opportunity estimated at $24 billion. This connotes of the immense potential for agri start-ups in the country, the report said. • Despite being a pandemic year, investors pumped in more than $500 million in agri-tech arena in 2020, compared to $248 million in 2019. • “With a significant rise in investment activity and looking at the huge market potential of Agritech in India, industry experts estimate that there will be investments of over and above $10 billion in the next ten years,” the report said. • It further said that the Government has been exhibiting its commitment to bring policy reforms in agriculture and allied sector and bolster the agri start-up ecosystem. The recently launched Agri reforms are a step in this direction and endeavors to disintermediate the complex Agri-supply chain, it observed. • Further to attract investments and build a robust agri start-up ecosystem going ahead, the FICCI-PwC report said impetus is needed strategic key areas such as infrastructural enablement, product innovation, supporting entrepreneurship and incubation, enhanced co-creations and institutional support. FICCI-PwC has suggested a 5 point agenda for building a robust agri-tech ecosystem • Pacing development of an AgriStack – A nationwide single & unified digital agri database infrastructure could act as a one-stopsolution and enabler for data requirements in the start-up ecosystem. This coupled with better data infrastructure, mobile literacy and high-speed internet at rural India, will alleviate the infrastructure bottlenecks. • Ushering in entrepreneurship and incubation: Ecosystem-level support in agribusiness incubation centres, right mentorship, and a mix of technological and managerial assistance would help AgriTech start-ups leapfrog in their business. • Co-creating through collaborations: There is a need to foster a win-win collaborative partnership between start-ups, FPOs and MSMEs to optimise profitability across value chains and ensure improved price realisation for small and marginal farmers. • Product innovation: Agri start-ups need to collaborate & engage actively with banking and insurance companies and introduce crop and region-based credit and insurance products (Agri-FinTech solutions) in such a manner that small and marginal farmers get encouraged to readily adopt climate resilient solutions. Agri start-ups can also innovate and customise tech solutions for quality assaying, traceability and food safety. Product innovation strategies can be executed successfully through continuous engagement between start-ups and the Government, and other facilitators in the ecosystem. • Institutional support: To ensure requisite institutional support for Agri start-ups there is also a need for creating a dedicated Agri start-up cell at a decentralized level to meet the requisite regulatory and Ease of Doing Business requirements for start-ups. From Traditional Agriculture to AgTech From Agriculture to AgTech The agricultural industry is about to be disrupted and will transform into a high-tech industry Disruption driver No. 1 A growing population Societal and demographic changes Increasing urbanization Climate change Smart agricultural technologies Biotechnology Servicization around core products Increasing value chain integration Globalized trade Changing international regulations From Agriculture to AgTech The agricultural industry is about to be disrupted and will transform into a high-tech industry Disruption driver No. 2 New consumer preferences: • the demand for personalized, on-demand products and increasing awareness for health and sustainability. Emerging technologies: • developing biological tissues, advanced manufacturing technologies, autonomous vehicles, and connected devices. Changing value chain and firm configurations: • growing trend towards horizontally and/or vertically integrating adjacent offerings. From Agriculture to AgTech The agricultural industry is about to be disrupted and will transform into a high-tech industry Three high-impact growth opportunities Improving yield efficiency The world population, of which 10% remain undernourished, is rapidly growing, thereby creating severe urgency to increase yields. Increasing supply chain efficiency Reducing the average value chain loss of 33% of initial production is a substantially stronger lever in increasing effective output than upfront yield improvement. technologies, autonomous vehicles, and connected devices. Decreasing complexity along farmers’ value chain Since today’s farmer already faces high complexity and tomorrow’s farmer will deal with even more players and technologies after the disruption, farmers are willing to pay for integrated solutions and ecosystems PRECISION AGRICULTURE Using DATA to make informed farming decisions - What is the level of moisture in my soil 6 or 12 inches beneath the surface? - What is the current micro climatic condition on my farm? Is it optimum for my crop growth? - Are my crops safe from any disease or pest attack? Satellite imagery Drones Sensors GPS 26 © Wolkus Technology Solutions Private Limited 2020 2 7 © W o l k u s T e c h n o l o g y S o l u t i o n s P r i v a t e L i m i t e d 2 0 2 0 Beneﬁts of precision farming. - Optimizing resource utilization - Cost Saving - Increase Crop Yield - Export quality produce - Sustainability 2 9 © W o l k u s T e c h n o l o g y S o l u t i o n s P r i v a t e L i m i t e d 2 0 2 0 Slow Adoption Precision Farming concept introduced in 1980s Challenges? Key areas to work on - Reduce the learning curve - Improving internet connectivity in rural areas - Affordable technology 12 © Wolkus Technology Solutions Private Limited 2020 What does IoT Analytics offer ? - Precise Irrigation Precise Disease and Pest Management Micro-Climatic Forecast Dynamic Crop Activity Planning Farm Finance Management 31 © Wolkus Technology Solutions Private Limited 2020 How it works? Solution Impact Water savings Spray cost decrease Yield increase Average: 20% - 30% Maximum: 70% Average: 18% - 25% Maximum: 60% Average: 8% - 15% Maximum: 20% 33 © Wolkus Technology Solutions Private Limited 2020 Recent development in agriculture brings on the scene real- time innovations and disruptions, whose effects are not easy to quantify, not to mention their future impact and evolutions that might trigger.Big Data disrupts agriculture around the world to meet these exigencies and is the driving force behind the current revolution in the industry and the driver to a new farming era. Here are some of the most important disruption directions: Three Key Disruptions More Accurate Data to Manage Processes High Quality Seeds and Speed Up Automation and Data Supported Breeding Farming Procedures • Big Data and the associated analytics • Relying on Big Data agriculture scientists • Taking profit on drone technology, allow high accuracy forecasts that were can create plants that grow faster, analytics, internet of things, helps never possible before like reliable crop stronger and on scarce soils or in poor farmers identify in real time deficiencies predictions. These insights enable climate conditions.This might be the in their systems and take corrective farmers to optimize the production solution to extinct the hunger across the measures. Available technology and cycles, the time of planting, some plants globe. Advances in genomics supported data, allow farmers to make simple on square meter, inputs to apply to by Big Data facilitate the biological decisions for different crops in function maximize harvests, etc. research, reduce costs, accelerate of the weather and plot conditions. evolution and permits things impossible before. Indian Agri & AI: Overview ● ● ● Current status & challenges in the sector Few use cases worth pursuing/being pursued through AI & emerging technologies Challenges in digitization/AI Journey So Far During 1965 to 2015, with green revolution, 3.7x increase in production, while population increased 2.5x in India. ● 45% increase in per person food production. We became a net exporter ● Farmer’s income did not grow. 22.5% of farm household in KA below poverty line. Dual Mandate: a) Food Security - Ensure adequate food supply to all, with adequate nutrition b)Double the Farmer Income sustainably - 80 % marginal farmers, with less than 2 hectares Current Status & Challenges ● Area Per Person Declining: Crop area per person declining with increase in population & declining area under agriculture. ● Dependency on Rain: Large portion still under Rainfed. ● Extreme Weather : Expected to be more extreme in nature & variability. ● Fragmented Farm Holding: 86% own below 2 hectare, and 70% below 1 hectare. Current Status & Challenges ● Low Yield: India’s farm yield is much lower than the world, by 1.5 to 3x ● Soil Depletion: Carbon content and nutrients in soil are depleting and majority of soil with insufficient nutrients. ● Water Challenges – 85%of water in India used in agriculture. ● Farmer Income - Doubling the farmer’s income a key initiative Source: Niti Aayog – Role of Digital and AI Technologies in Indian Agriculture: by Tanay Mahindru Trends in Agriculture – With a focus on DATA Seven Problems worth solving using AI, Digital, Emerging Technologies 1. Crop Yield, and Price Prediction in ongoing manner Why? • Prevent price falls & take preventive actions – State • Help in Automated Crop Monitoring for Farmer. • Planning a harvest calendar for farmer • Import/Export decisions by State • Yield prediction can reduce Crop cutting experiments needed for insurance. • Story Use Case • • • • Many states have crop survey data shows crop wise acreage & sowing week. Field submission may be inaccurate, so need actual real time data. Using AI model, one finds the excess of crop, which means prices will likely fall. Advisory to farmers to stagger the crop cutting to avoid the glut in market & price fail & suicides Crop Yield, and Price Prediction Weather Inputs + extreme events +rainfall data Demand Factors +APMC demand transacted Crop Survey Inputs +area under which crop Remote Sensing & IOT data +NDVI and VCI Index +Area under which crop +Soil health & moisture Seed Supplier Data +Type of Seed used by district Agri AI/ML Platform Yield Forecast Price Forecast Historical Prices +APMC prices +Open market prices + Futures market Actionable Insights List of Data Sources ● ● ● ● Crop Vegetation Index & more at Taluk level - https://vedas.sac.gov.in/en/ Soil Health at District, Taluk, Village level - https://www.soilhealth.dac.gov.in/ Weather Advisory – https://www.imdagrimet.gov.in/ Mandi Prices at APMC https://agmarknet.gov.in/,http://agmarknet.nic.in/market_profile/MProfile.as px 2. Crop Selection– What crop is optimal to grow Why? • • Optimize farm resources based on current conditions of soil, weather prediction, to maximize farmer income, keeping sustainability in mind. Increase the crop yield & increase Agri GDP. Achieve food security and minimize imports for country . • Story Use Case • A farmer learns of new emerging trends of millet consumption in the west, and the extra income that it can generate for it. He wants to learn about the suitability of that crop, and what profitability to expect from that? A key input into this would be price expected for a commodity He uses a system to identify, among the various options he has in mind, which are best for him keeping the soil health, weather inputs in mind along with any constraints like his ability to invest. Govt can use a similar system, and overlay its objectives of Agri GDP maximization, and food security, along with other inputs, and advice the farmers on what to grow in a region. • • • • 2. Crop Selection– What crop is optimal to grow? Commercial Inputs Investment needed Profitability Agri AI/ML Engine Environment Inputs Weather, Soil, Water State Inputs GDP Maximization Food Security Optimal Crop Advisory Actionable Insights 3. Plant Pests - Early alerts 3. Plant Pests early detection Crowdsource data & user submitted photos of plant leaves. Farmer takes a suspect leaf picture & uploads through mobile. The system shares which pest it is, and what corrective action to take. Idea: Crop Insurance Companies could fund this, as it reduces claims 4. Early Locust Warnings ● Why: In 2019-20, Rajasthan had 179 lakh hectares impacted by locust attack. Rs 132 crores was paid as relief to farmers. Problem much severe in Africa ● How: Remote sensing based satellite imagery can be used to predict the movement of locust. ● This can be used to provide early warnings – like weather – so preventative actions can be taken Source: FAO 5. Farmer/Farm Credit Score for cheaper Lending Why? ● 60% of India small and marginal farmer don’t have ● ● ● access to institutional credit. Cost of lending for farmer too high for his working capital needs. It takes longer time for formal institutions to lend money. Lack of CIBIL score for farmers makes it harder for institutions to make lending decisions. A Solution Provide a score for the (a) Farmer (b) Farm land he is farming on, and produce a CIBIL like score, which lenders can use. Large opportunity Source: The Agri Collaboratory 6. Seed Traceability Why? • 65% to 70% Unbranded seeds (privately produced) • Spurious seeds & Low quality seeds in market • Leads to crop loss and Farmer distress • Recalls of unregistered seeds Seed key input for yield increase A Solution Source: TraceX 6. Seed Traceability Source: TraceX • Track the Seed purity from source to destination. • Verifiable data across several multiplication stages and production stages • Farmers have easy access to reliable information about the product they are buying. • Helps the seed production agencies create a sense of trust and transparency amongst the farmers. • Digitization of entire seed to sales process Product Traceability – another large area of work. Organic Produce from farming to production. 7. Precision Farming with IOTsensors, Remote Sensing ● ● ● ● ● Field is broken in zones, and optimal inputs based on the realtime data is provided. Optimal water usage, fertilizer usage, right tilling, seed usage as per the area. Ongoing soil nutrient measurement, early crop disease detection, yield estimation. Ongoing farmer advisory through an app. Can attract younger generation to come back to farming. 7.2. Farmer Advisory along with Precision Farming ● ● ● Based on date of sowing, regular alerts to farmer on following the Package of Practices. Use real time weather data, crop data to alter the advisory & optimize This can lead to higher yield, and lower cost, thus higher net income.Many western countries have many successful models using this. Challenges Lack of irrigated area. Small land holding, and ability to pay upfront for this This can be viewed as public good like weather advisory 7.3 Increase in Mechanization & Drones ● Use of Drones for insecticide spray, monitoring the farm. ● Use of robots/machines for harvesting, and in labour intensive areas. ● GPS enabled tractors, Harvesters, already being adopted. ● Operating Drones/Unmanned vehicles require extra skills. ● With 5G availability coming up, this can catalyze the growth of IOT and mechanization Mechanization in India still low - only 40% Source: Bain Agriculture report Agri 4.0 the next big trends The coming years will be characterized by unprecedented rates of innovation at the intersection of digital technologies and life sciences that—if harnessed and applied— can provide the tools humanity needs to adapt to or mitigate some of its most pressing challenges Emerging Digital Trends Assignment A five page note on the CGIAR “ Platform for Big Data in Agriculture” - How to leverage the platform (i.e. using big data) to solve agricultural development problems faster, better and at greater scale. Specifically elaborate on OADM, GARDIAN, AGROFIMS, HiDAP etc Agriculture 4.0 ● Agriculture 4.0 is a term for the next big trends facing the industry, including a greater focus on precision agriculture, the internet of things (IoT) and the use of big data to drive greater business efficiencies in the face of rising populations and climate change. ● In 2018, the World Government Summit published their report called Agriculture 4.0 – The Future Of Farming Technology, in collaboration with Oliver Wyman. The report addresses the four main developments placing pressure on agriculture in the near future: Demographics, Scarcity of natural resources, Climate change, and Food waste. ● The term “Agriculture 4.0” has entered the public consciousness. What are some of the changes this means for agriculture’s future? Agriculture 4.0 The role of big data IoT sensors in field and on livestock New technologies Improved precision agriculture and the benefits The Impact of Industry 4.0 on the Agriculture Industry The Impact of Industry 4.0 would disrupt and transform the Agriculture Industry in many ways. >Impact 1 - Application of Augmented Reality (AR), Virtual Reality (VR) and Mixed Reality (MR) - Run simulation for growing crops; Conduct surveys of the ﬁeld such crop analysis, soil analysis, pest analysis – from the data captured from on-ﬁeld sensors; Provide an overlay of weather data so farmers can decide on the most appropriate crop to grow; Training and upskilling of farmers; Machinery design and manufacturing >Impact 2 - Digital Supply Chains, Blockchain and Cloud Computing - Process Simpliﬁcation; Automated Logging of Data; Improved Food Safety; Improved Ethical Practices in the Supply Chain; Reduced Risks and Fraud; democratized access; more effective decision-making; elimination of paper documents; signiﬁcant reduction of errors in the supply chain >Impact 3 - Precision Agriculture (PA) - Also known as ‘Satellite Farming’, ‘As-needed farming’ and ‘Site Speciﬁc Crop Management (SSCM)’; Based on active observation, measuring and responding to crops in the ﬁeld which has been enabled by technological tools in both inter and intra-ﬁeld variability of crops >Impact 4 - Automation, Drones and Robotics -Harvesting and picking automation; autonomous machines; seeding; weeding; swarm farming >Impact 5 - Real-time Monitoring and Big Data Analytics - Solve the most burning issues of food security; optimize farming equipment; a continuously improving supply chain; planting; insurance; weather forecasting >Impact 6 - Applications of Additive Manufacturing - Zero-waste construction; greater reduction time and material cost; create complex architectural designs with ease; reduce labour costs; more accurate designs and less errors; usage of 3D printers on-site for spare parts and replacements; improved health and safety >Impact 7 - Applications of Artiﬁcial Intelligence - Image recognition; powering data analytics and predictive analytics; maximize the yield; AI-powered chatbots; autonomous equipment; yield mapping and estimation >Impact 8 - Urban and Vertical Farming, Hydroponics and Aquaponics - Urban Farming - Practice of cultivating, processing and distributing produce in and around urban areas; Vertical Farming - Growing produce in vertically stacked layers in controlled-environments; Hydroponics - Growing plants without soil using a liquid solution which contains nutrients like nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium and other elements; Aquaponics - Combines conventional aquaculture with hydroponics; Aeroponics -growing without a solid or liquid medium >Impact 9 - Genetic Engineering and Nano-Technology Applications - CRISPR (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats); CRISPR enables researchers to alter DNA sequences and modify the functions of genes >Impact 10 - Online Marketplaces and Smart Farming -Online platforms which facilitate sale, rent or lease of agriculture equipment and machinery such as combines, planters and sprayers; Agriculture Insurance (Crop Insurance) platforms; Credit and Crowdfunding platforms; Networking Platforms such as farmer-to-farmer collaboration platforms or farmer-to-restaurant/direct retail platforms; B2B procurement platforms – spare parts, components, chemicals, seeds, etc. Thank you

Applied Analytics for Business – Agriculture PDF

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