363c64ca-77b6-46f7-864b-194acbabf2a5_Political_Psychology.pdf

Political Psychology Syllabus Book Ideas Lovely One Lecture 9/27 What is Political Psychology? EC point: send a picture Dr. Smith through email of myself and say “I am...

Political Psychology Syllabus Book Ideas Lovely One Lecture 9/27 What is Political Psychology? EC point: send a picture Dr. Smith through email of myself and say “I am registered to vote” Voting Integrity: false positives vs. false negatives GALLUP Polling Congressional job approval has fallen dramatically (19% approval in 2024) 76% disapproval Trends Approval spiked in 2001 after 9/11 (oct/nov) Bumps Political Psychology 1  Post 2008 housing crisis potentially lead to 2009 bump Party of President switches Novelty; enthusiasm 2020 stimulus checks Trust in Federal Gov. to Solve Problems Pretty historically low atm Differences broken down can highlight different trends (e.g., party, age, etc.) Gov. changing parties affects people’s perceptions Preference for policy often flips depending on who is in office Presidential Approval by Party 1. People have an in-party preference 2. The difference between parties is growing over time 81% difference for Trump Mostly due to decrease in out-party approval 3. Most presidents stay the same or get less popular Supreme Court use to be mostly immune to this phenomenon…not anymore Both parties used to mostly agree on favorable/unfavorable option of SC together Now it switches by party along with Fed and Congress Major change in 2013 along w/ legalization of Gay marriage Again Overturn of Roe Affective Polarization Individual’s feelings towards members of their own political group become more positive while their feelings towards members of opposing party/group become more negative Political Psychology 2  In-group support Pushing down the out-group…disliking them Feeling Thermometer Ratings A little less warm towards in-group over time Worse in the US than other countries Our two-party system is more aggressive than many other governments Often more polarized candidates win in early elections Rural and urban divide Majority of registered voters report that they have few to no friends that support other candidate Same party marriage Independents Gallup: 43% independents today Few are truly independent (lean towards a certain side) No lean is ~7% Lecture 9/29 TA - Abhay Psych 311J Consumer preference surveys Is the simple view that there are two Americas (pushed by media) counterproductive? Do we continue to create differences because of these heuristics? Minute differences being extrapolated falsely (much variability) The more we learn about the differences, the more we emphasize them Red States vs. Blue States Political Psychology 3  This concept was coined during the 2000 Presidential election (Tim Russert of NBC) Phrasing caught on immediately Created a framework/language to discuss this concept in media 2004 → Senator Obama gave his speech at the DNC (Kerry), titled: “Red States, Blue States” as a backlash against this concept Swing states Variability within-states County break down How the map is shown creates psychological implications for how people think the state is like Cloropleth maps - maps broken down by color These two maps break down different info based on regions Cartogram weights (i.e., size) - weigh/size the states based on electoral votes Dot density map - highlights voters with dots/circles Minimizes where there aren’t people Removes state lines ❓ Are we interested in representing where more people are or where more land is? Republicans generally prefer the representation by state because it makes it look more like Red America Democrat view: “Land doesn’t vote, people do” Maps create a lot of debate Trump hung a version of the cloropleth map by region during his presidency Political Psychology 4  Florida! Recent US Presidential Elections in Florida Has been quite close the based 3 elections Purple state In 2012 voted for Obama but Trump in last 2 elections Cities & College towns tend to be Bluer Jacksonville is one of the most conservative cities (military presence); one of the biggest cities → Jacksonville flips Political Psychology Application of psych research methods, theory and data to politics (Stone et al., 2014) Application of what is known about human psych to study of politics (Sears, Huddy, & Jervis, 2003) Power of situation Personality perspective Predicting voting behavior Attitudinal factors, demographic factors, location, etc. Understanding differences between liberals and conservatives Difficulties in communication between groups Methods Survey methods → representative sampling! Cross-sectional (Pew, Gallup, ANES) Longitudinal (typically not purely ofc) Describe what a DV looks like in a given pop. E.g., how much do Americans like Harris? Political Psychology 5  Thermometer rating with mean Asses relationship between DVs E.g., how much did racial attitudes relate to support for Obama in 2008? Experimental methods → causality w/ random assignment Lab studies Field studies (e.g., online) Surveys of Presidential Contests Polling throughout history 1948 - Chicago Tribune ran “Dewey defeats Truman” Early edition (150,000 copies) ran w/ incorrect headline Based on prediction from political analyst (Arthur Sears Henning) who was correct in 4/5 of the last contest 2000 - 7:48 pm CNN calls FL for Al Gore → rest of networks followed Based on exit-polling (closed at 8pm in FL) 2:18 am networks call FL for Bush 2:30 am Gore calls Bush to concede 3:30 am Gore un-concedes 4:04 networks uncall FL for Bush Recounts happened for weeks until 5-4 US Supreme Court overturned FL Supreme Court decision which elected Bush Gallup stopped conducting “horse race” polling measure in 2012 after being off In 2008 Nate Silver accurately predicted 49/50 states (and all senate races) using regression; 2012 all states Regression modeling Poll of polls: aggregate data from any available polls Political Psychology 6  Weighting info based on where it is from; importance → weights are key to models success 🗒️ Summary: Conclusions shouldn’t be based on one person’s predictions Exit polling has issues Lack of reporting honesty, accuracy, and many polls are missed Weighted regression with all info is best! 2016 - Went into Election using regression models Clinton predicted to win at 71% Original reaction was that polls were completely wrong More to do with psychological reactions towards how percentages and polls work The polls were accurate with the national average for electoral college predicting 3% while she was at 2% Late-deciding voters went for Trump Difference was 30% in Wisconsin and 17% in FL Not enough weight adjustment for college-educated respondents vs. voter turnout Inevitability of victory might have depressed turnout of Clinton voters Belief in polls based on party Close election overall 2020 - Public opinion polls made many errors (unusual magnitude) Far less precise than assumed by poll consumers Political Psychology 7  Should not take polls seriously!! Damaging to the process Catch-up Lectures Attitudes and Persuasion.pdf Attitudes and Persuasion Attitude: a psychological tendency that is expressed by evaluating a particular entity w/ some degree of favor or disfavor Learned predisposition to respond in a consistently favorable or unfavorable manner with respect to a given object Summary evaluation Association between a concept and an evaluation Historical definition derives from body position/posture Measurement Types Political Psychology 8  1. Direct Likert Scale 5 or 7 point scale → strongly agree to strongly disagree Semantic Differential Scale 2. Indirect/Covert Bogus pipeline - a fake polygraph used to get participants to truthfully respond to emotional/affective questions in a survey Political Psychology 9  Unobtrusive measures - based on physical characteristics/data collected without the participant’s knowledge Room characteristics on the Big Five 3. Implicit Evaluative priming Implicit Association Test (IAT) Affect Misattribution Procedure (AMP) Problems with Direct Measurement 1. Respondent carelessness 2. Impression management/reactivity There is evidence that Republicans have stopped responding to polls/started giving misleading answers Polls are not predictive for Republicans 3. People don’t always know their own mind 4. Lack of knowledge/misinformation People were in favor of all of the pieces affordable care act but not the act as a whole (”Obamacare”) Persuasion Overview Yale approach Political Psychology 10  Carl Hovland & colleagues at Yale in the 50s/60s Who said what to whom Source cues Expertise, trustworthiness, likability, similarity attractiveness Message cues Strong vs. weak Affective vs. cognitive TV vs. radio Audience Cues Need for cognition (NFC) Paying attention Motivated audience Elaboration Likelihood Model Political Psychology 11  Petty et. al @ Ohio State Similar to Shelly Chaiken’s Heuristic Systematic model 2 routes by which attitude change occurs Peripheral route Quick, based on feeling Used when audiences are not motivated Central route Carefully evaluating an argument Used by motivated audiences Political Campaigns.pdf Political Psychology 12  Political campaign spending has increased dramatically since 2016 Political Psychology 13  Political spending across battleground states is extreme $211 million total so far in Pennsylvania 75% of this money comes from 18 y/o, reporting intention to vote for main candidate, completed all measures Predicted vote (intention) using Race IAT, AMP, Thermometer ratings, Likert scale Implicit race attitudes did end up predicting the vote IAT & AMP and two self-report measures → regression Political ideology Gender 2016 - higher hostile sexism predicted voting for Trump over Clinton Hostility/“protective” dynamic; hostile/benevolent sexism Political Psychology 20  2020 primary → higher hostile sexism amongst Democratic voters predicted less support for Elizabeth Warren Benevolent sexism predicted more support for Biden Facial Competence Todorov, et. al (2005) Participants given a pair of images of two candidates Asked to rate which looked more competent (amongst other traits) Correlations w/ votes r~.40 Voice Voice pitch influences voting behavior In war times or times of stress/hardship we want a candidate with especially deeper voices Context Effects Polling location Variability in polling locations Libraries Schools Churches Official buildings Rural areas → churches and schools more likely People voting at schools More likely to vote to fund schools? Gay marriage on the ballot Does voting at a church impact this? Yes, but evidence that this only affects Christians (priming) → designated polling location Political Psychology 21  Also voting in church affects support for Republican candidate Flag priming Political Psychology 22