Week 2.docx

Climate Change Adaptation Week 2 The start of adaption: UNFCCC was created in 1992 and called on nations to enact measures Research on adaption was driven by vulnerability and impacts Then ways vulnerable populations could adapt to future changes became to focus Adaptions were rarely recognised by...

Climate Change Adaptation Week 2 The start of adaption: UNFCCC was created in 1992 and called on nations to enact measures Research on adaption was driven by vulnerability and impacts Then ways vulnerable populations could adapt to future changes became to focus Adaptions were rarely recognised by UNFCCC as they assumed that a reduction in GHG’s would be enough to control problems 2007 - The adaption fund launched by the UNFCCC 2009 – fund became operational 2015 – a global goal for adaptation was established at the Paris agreement The number of chapters on adaption in IPCC reports gradually increased since 2001 Sustainability is now being incorporated Why is mitigation not enough? Climate change is already occurring and isn’t a future vent We continue to live on fossil fuels despite advances in renewable energy Removal of all human-induced CO2 emissions will take hundreds of thousands of years Even if all greenhouse gas emissions are ceased there is an excess of CO2 in the atmosphere – consequences will still occur (temperature rises, thermal expansion of oceans) Adaption must be addressed with the same priority as mitigation – UNFCCC conference, Mexico, 2010 Definition of Adaption = Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities Types of Adaptation: Incremental - adaptation processes [that] operate to maintain a system within its current state e.g. changing crops to maintain current farming practices Transitional - intermediary stage: adaptation measures attempt to cause a shift in these ‘incremental processes’, transitioning adaptation into a new state Transformational – most drastic: radically new endeavor, no longer seeking to maintain the status quo e.g. GM crops or Thames estuary plan in 2100, UK Ideal characteristics of adaptation: Be complementary to mitigation (both adaptation and mitigation; not either/or) Decrease vulnerability Seek to avoid maladaptation (maladaptation may cause increase in conflict, emissions, and vulnerability) Promote innovation and take advantage of beneficial opportunities Be inherently interdisciplinary Take climate change into account Be proactive Agree with the 17 goals of sustainable development for 2030 Maintain or increase quality of life, standard of living Apply cultural and conflict sensitive approaches Consider not only primary and secondary impacts, but also interconnected and cascading impacts Increases in peer-reviewed literature appeared after the UNFCCC in 1992 Challenges in adaptation research: It doesn’t have a single metric like mitigation Takes place in every sector, for every impact and in every geographic region in the world – its scale needs to be determined Some say the rise of adaptation is linked to a nation’s wealth, government system, geographic location, funding availability Finance is restricting adaption: Three key components in the climate finance discussion: estimating the damages from climate change; the cost of adapting to climate change; and how adaptation will be financed Calculating the cost of climate change adaptation: Stern Review (2007) - cited the cost of climate change to be 5-20% of GDP per year indefinitely UNFCCC (2007) reported that $49-171 billion per year by 2030 would be needed to adapt to climate change, and of this, $27-66 billion would be for developing countries World Bank (2010) – 2oC warmer world would cost $70-100 billion per year by 2050 UNEP (2016) - costs of adaptation are likely to be two-to-three times higher than current global estimates by 2030 - potentially four-to-five times higher by 2050 Recent debates over funding: Developed countries assisting developing countries in meeting costs of climate change adapting Developing countries argue for climate justice – they have contributed less to climate change but are enduring the most impacts Obligation is on developed countries to provide funding Concepts, frameworks and methodologies for vulnerability and adaptation assessments Natural hazards domain - it refers to the degree to which a unit is likely to suffer in response to a disturbance and the capacity (or lack thereof) the unit has to deal with the disturbance (either by returning to its original state, arrive at a new state of equilibrium or perish) Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. Biophysical vulnerability – changes in rainfall, cyclones, flooding Social vulnerability – education levels, poverty rate, income Current vulnerability (based on present climate variability): allows one to assess the known risks and implement measures to reduce or manage those risks. Future vulnerability (based on climatic changes): allows one to assess the potential and known risks with the goal of estimating the level of danger and identifying the appropriate adaptation measures. Resilience and stability: Ecological resilience: Degree to which perturbations can be absorbed by the system before it changes from one state to another. Stability: function of the tendency of a system to return to its original equilibrium after a perturbation Social resilience: Capacity of groups or communities to adapt to, or learning to handle, stresses and external political, social, economic or environmental perturbations Adaptation - changes in procedures, practices and structures with a view to limiting or eliminating the potential damage from or capitalizing on the opportunities created by climate variability and change. Adaptive capacity - ability of a system, community or individual to adapt to climate change impacts (including climate variability) depends on the economic, social and human resources of the entity How is an adaption assessment created? Vulnerability = Risk (Danger x Exposure) +/- Adaptation (Responses / Options) Risk = Probability of a given danger occurring Danger = Current or potential threats to humans and their well-being, and ecosystems and their services Exposure = Susceptibility to loss Adaptation = Capacity of a system to adjust to new or changing conditions in its environment Responses = The mechanisms used or actions taken in response to current and future adverse effects Options = Different possible response measures to the changes Different frameworks for adaptive assessment: Identifying which adaption option is best: Be conscious of the appropriate methods and tools Ensure that all stakeholders participate in the process and that their views are taken into consideration – make sure solid relationships are made so they will listen Highlight the importance of resolving urgent problems Keep the objective of identifying possible adaptation options at the forefront at all times Ensure that the information used is on the appropriate timescale and meets the needs of decision-makers Pay attention to how models, scenarios and results are used The objective of vulnerability and adaptation assessments is to produce relevant information so as to diminish uncertainty, increase awareness amongst stakeholders and monitor adaptation strategies. The assessments should assist in diminishing the gap that exists between the scientific community, decision-makers and the general population. Adaption learning cycle: Strategies for climate change adaptation: United States Outdoor air Voluntary Transportation Tips Reduce vehicle emissions by encouraging smart growth development. Choose a cleaner commute — carpool, use public transportation, bike or walk when possible. Combine errands to reduce "cold starts" of your car and avoid extended idling. Keep car, boat and other engines properly tuned, and avoid engines that smoke. Follow gasoline refueling instructions for efficient vapor recovery. Be careful not to spill fuel and always tighten your gas cap securely Indoor air Weatherization & Ventilation It is essential to maintain proper ventilation to maintain healthy indoor environments. Proper ventilation is essential for moisture control and to dilute pollutants generated indoors. Weatherization or retrofitting may include: installing storm windows weather stripping caulking insulating your home It should also include an assessment of the ventilation required, and adjustment to the ventilation if needed, to accommodate weatherization changes in the home. Case studies Camden, NJ and DC using green infrastructure to manage stormwater – protecting from increases precipitation anf sewer overflows Fredericktown, Missouri prepares for drought risk 2. United Kingdom Case studies 3. EU Adaptation options can be aimed at: Accepting the impacts, and bearing the losses that result from risks (e.g. managing retreat from sea level rise) Off-setting losses by sharing or spreading risks (e.g. through insurance) Avoiding or reducing exposure to climate risks (e.g. building new flood defences, or changing location or activity) Exploiting new opportunities (e.g. engaging in a new activity, or changing practices to take advantage of changing climatic conditions). Case studies 4. Developing countries What are common adaptation priorities? Agriculture under pressure Protecting freshwater supplies Climate impacts on health Risks posed to the energy sector Fisheries and local livelihoods Case studies Kenya - passed a Climate Change Bill, has in place a National Climate Change Strategy and National Climate Change Action Plan, and has prepared a draft national climate change framework policy and a draft climate finance policy. Bangladesh has prepared a climate change strategy and action plan, with funding earmarked for their implementation. Climate Change Trust Fund Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund financed by donors river bank protection, afforestation and disaster management Burkina Faso published a National Adaptation Programme of Action in 2007 and released its National Adaptation Plan in 2015. National Council for the Environment and Sustainable Development lacks the capacity and financing required to implement its adaptation plans. Global Adaptation Index