Vermont 2024 Election PDF

State Fact Sheet U.S. Embassy School Election Project 2024 Vermont (VT) (3 votes) Capital: Montpelier Area: 9,616sq mi. / 24,923 sq km...

State Fact Sheet U.S. Embassy School Election Project 2024 Vermont (VT) (3 votes) Capital: Montpelier Area: 9,616sq mi. / 24,923 sq km Wikimedia Commons Population: 647,464 Nickname: "Green Mountain State" State motto: "Freedom and Unity" Governor: Phil Scott (R) U.S. Senators: Peter Welch (D), Bernie Sanders (Independent) How will your state vote? Predicting a vote is a challenging task. Politi- What are the most common predictors to de- cal researchers have different opinions on termine how citizens will vote? Socio-eco- how to predict an election outcome. Different nomic factors are among the most important formulas and methods are used, however ones. They include, but are not limited to, cit- none is perfect. Each prediction is a snapshot izens’ education, income, and ethnicity. While of the voters’ opinion at a certain point in these are often mentioned as decisive, others time. But with election issues and current are important to consider as well. For exam- events changing so fast, it is quite a challenge ple, many Americans cast their vote based on to have an accurate prediction of how the a single issue like health care, women’s repro- election will turn out. In the 2020 election, ductive rights, the economy, or the environ- most political pundits and polls before Elec- ment. These voters choose their preferred tion Day accurately estimated that Demo- candidate based on the issue most important cratic candidate Joe Biden would receive to their identity, their social network, or per- more votes than the Republican candidate sonal biography, for example religious affilia- and former President Donald J. Trump. How- tion, ideology, or health. Americans also of- ever, Biden’s victory in the Electoral College ten cast their vote in a local context and are was narrower than predicted because the influenced by political and social issues af- polls overstated Biden’s support relative to fecting their own state. Finally, calculating Trump. voter turnout is key to an accurate prediction. Some key variables for predicting the election outcome Voting history Ethnicity Religion How have people in the state What ethnic group does a citizen How important is religion to the voted in the past? Is the state belong to? What is the ethnic citizens? How often do they solidly red, blue, or purple? make-up of the state? pray or attend worship service? What is the expected turnout? Economy Income inequality Education What’s the current economic How wide is the gap between How many people graduate situation in the state? How wealthy and poor people? How from high school in your state? many citizens live in poverty? much income does the top 1% How many have a college de- How many are without a job? in the state take home? gree? 1 State Fact Sheet U.S. Embassy School Election Project 2024 Voting history Election results in Vermont (2004–2020): Vermont, the first state admitted after 2020 31% 66% the original 13 colonies, joined the Union in March 1791, and has participated in 2016 30% 56% every election since 1792. While current-day Vermont is reliably Democratic 2012 31% 67% in national elections, it is interesting to note that from the founding of the modern Republican Party 2008 30% 68% in 1854 through the election of 1988, Vermont went Republican in every election except 1964, when it voted for Lyndon Johnson over Barry Gold- 2004 39% 59% water. In 1992, Vermont broke this tradition, vot- ing for Bill Clinton over George Bush, and has been 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% “blue” ever since. In 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald VT Republicans other VT Democrats Trump by a vote of 66% to 31%, easily winning the state’s three electoral votes. Voter turnout 2020: State 74% U.S. 67% Ethnicity Religion White (only) 91,9% VT is tied for 48th most religious state overall U.S. 59% Hispanic & Latino 2,3% 34% of adults in VT are “highly religious,” based on an U.S. 19% overall index African Am. & Black 1,5% Religious profile of Vermont U.S. 14% Asian American 2,1% 32% (51st) say religion is very important in their lives U.S. 6% Am. Indian/Alaska Native 0,4% 21% (51st) say they attend worship at least weekly U.S. 1% 33% (51st) say they pray daily (U.S. average in grey) 41% (50th) say they believe in God w/ absolute certainty Economy Income inequality 10.4% (41 st The top 1% take 1% of the families highest) home 14% of all poverty rate the income in VT. 2.2% (4 th lowest) (U.S. average: 21%) 14% of the income unemployment rate Education High school degree Bachelor’s degree or higher or higher persons 25+ yrs. old 94.2% persons 25+ yrs. old 41.7% U.S. average (grey): 89.1% U.S. average (grey): 34.3% 2 State Fact Sheet U.S. Embassy School Election Project 2024 More information on Vermont * State information Official state website: https://www.vermont.gov Media Vermont Political News https://www.politico.com/news/vermont Vermont Politics Podcast https://www.vermontpublic.org/podcast/vermont-public-news Democrats and Republicans in the state Democratic Party Republican Party http://www.vtdemocrats.org http://vtgop.org http://www.youtube.com/user/VTDemocrats https://www.youtube.com/@VTGOPclips http://twitter.com/VTDems http://twitter.com/vtgop https://www.instagram.com/vtdems/ https://www.instagram.com/vtgop/ no official site no official site * Please note, these are third-party resources, Teach About U.S. is not responsible for this content. Sources: 1. State map: Wikimedia Commons 2. Voting history text: adapted from 270towin.com 3. Ethnicity, economy, and education data: U.S. Census Bureau 4. Religion data: Pew poll: How religious is your state? 5. Poverty and unemployment rate: Poverty Rates by State & Unemployment Statistics Map 6. Wealth and income inequality data: Economic Policy Institute – The Unequal States of America 3