UDM URB26 Topic 3 Migration 2024-2025 PDF

Topic 3 Migration Urban Demography & Migrations Term II, 2024-2025  2 Outline 1. Defining migration 2. Measuring internal and international migration. Stocks versus flows. I...

Topic 3 Migration Urban Demography & Migrations Term II, 2024-2025  2 Outline 1. Defining migration 2. Measuring internal and international migration. Stocks versus flows. Indicators of (internal) migration 3. Theories of migration 4. Potential economic, demographic and social effects of international (labor) migration on: sending (origin, source) countries receiving (destination, host) countries Annex: WDR-2023 framework for policymakers: Match and motive matrix Literature: W. Chapter 6. The Migration Transition. UNECE (2011) Statistics on International Migration. A Practical Guide for Countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Geneva: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. Kupets O. (2012) Characteristics and Determinants of Internal Labor Mobility in Ukraine. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Simpson N.B. (2022) “Demographic and economic determinants of migration”, IZA World of Labor, v2. World Bank (2022) World Development Report 2023. Migrants, Refugees, Societies. Washington D.C.: World Bank.  3 Defining migration Basic demographic approach: The migrants are the difference between the population sizes in a given period with respect to number of births and deaths (e.g. Lewis G. (1982) “Human Migration. A Geographical Perspective”, Routledge): According to Weeks (Glossary, p. 462), “migration is the process of permanently changing residence from one geographic location to another; it is one of the three basic demographic processes”. However, no universally accepted definition for “migrant” or “migration” exists at the international level.  4 Defining migration International Organization for Migration (IOM) uses the definition developed for it own purposes: “a migrant is a person who moves away from his or her place of usual residence, whether within a country or across an international border, temporarily or permanently, and for a variety of reasons. The term includes : a number of well-defined legal categories of people, such as migrant workers; persons whose particular types of movements are legally-defined, such as smuggled migrants; as well as those whose status or means of movement are not specifically defined under international law, such as international students.” See more at https://www.iom.int/about-migration. A person’s country of usual residence is defined as “the country in which a person lives, that is to say, the country in which he or she has a place to live where he or she normally spends the daily period of rest” (§32, UN Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration, 1998).  5 Defining migration Basic criteria used for systematizing and recording migrants Source: UNECE (2011)  6 Defining migration Categories of migrants by duration of stay (absence) criterion Data on long-term migrants are important for evaluating the dynamics of population size at the national and regional levels because a 12-month limit is usually used in censuses to define resident (de facto) population. Source: UNECE (2011)  7 Measuring migration. Stocks versus flows Migrant flows (migration flows) refers to the number of migrants that have moved from one country/migration-defining area to another within a certain period of time, as a rule within one year, or the number of migration events (such as arrivals or departures) that have occurred within the same period. Sources of data on migration flows: Registration and cancellations from the population registers/ register of foreign nationals [the main source of data used in Ukraine] Registered movements at the borders Permits (residence /work / stay) granted in a period of time* Regularizations and apprehensions at the border (irregular migration) Consular records Household migration and other surveys (e.g. LFS, HBS) * It must be taken into account that the number of procedures doesn't always coincide with the number of migration events or number of migrants. Source: UNECE (2011) + CARIM-East project  8 Measuring migration. Stocks versus flows Stock (number) of migrants refers to a group of persons who directly or indirectly experienced a migration event (i.e. they themselves migrated or they are descendants of migrants) and are living in a given country/migration- defining area at a given moment. Sources of data on the stock of migrants: Population Census Population registers/Register of foreign nationals Permits (residence/ work/ stay) at a given date in time (e.g. December 31st, or January 1st) Consular records Household migration and other surveys (e.g. LFS, HBS) Source: UNECE (2011) + CARIM-East project  9 Measuring migration Criteria of immigrant stock identification Source: UNECE (2011)  10 Measuring migration: Example Distribution of international lifetime migrant stocks by periods of arrival to Ukraine according to the Population Census in 2001 “The 2001 population census in Ukraine showed that 5,256,923 persons included in the resident population had moved to Ukraine from abroad... Taking into account that 5,156,240 persons were foreign-born, we can suppose that almost all international lifetime migrants were born abroad. In this case, 85 per cent of foreign-born persons moved to Ukraine before the break-up of the USSR”. Source: UNECE (2011)  11 Some indicators of migration Amongst the most frequently used indicators in the analysis of internal population migration based on administrative records are the following: 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠𝑖,𝑡 𝐼𝑛 − 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖,𝑡 = ∗ 1000 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖,𝑡 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠𝑖,𝑡 𝑂𝑢𝑡 − 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖,𝑡 = ∗ 1000 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖,𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠𝑖,𝑡 − 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠𝑖,𝑡 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖,𝑡 = ∗ 1000 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖,𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠𝑖,𝑡 + 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠𝑖,𝑡 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖,𝑡 = ∗ 1000 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖,𝑡 where Inflowsi,t and Outflowsi,t stand for in-migration and out-migration to/from the region i during time period t respectively, and Populationi,t is the average annual de facto population of the respective region i in time period t. Migration rates as well as many other demographic indicators are measured in per mille (i.e. per 1,000 population).  12 Some indicators of migration The country-level gross migration rate (or turnover rate) is the share of the population which has changed its place of residence inside the borders of a country within a year and can be defined as half of the sum of total internal outflows and inflows across all regions (division by two is necessary to avoid double counting): 1 σ𝑖(𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠𝑖,𝑡 + 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠𝑖,𝑡 ) 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑡 = ∗ 100% 2 σ𝑖 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖,𝑡 The net migration rate at the country level (or the rate of redistribution due to migration according to UN(1970)) is one half of the sum of all changes without regard to sign: 1 σ𝑖 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠𝑖,𝑡 − 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠𝑖,𝑡 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑡 = ∗ 100% 2 σ𝑖 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖,𝑡 An ‘effectiveness index’ measures how “effective” the total volume of migration is in redistributing the population: 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑡 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥𝑡 = ∗ 100% 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑡 If migration is completely effective (that is, migration is all in one direction), an effectiveness index takes value of 100%. A difference between 100% and the index shows a part of migration accounted for by churning flows when people move in and out  13 Theories of migration Theoretical Author Key ideas approach Ravenstein General laws of The majority of migrants move only a short distance. (1876-1889) migration Each main current of migration produces a compensating countercurrent. Long-distance migrants tend to move to the great centres of commerce or industry. Rural people have a higher propensity to migrate than urban people. Women have a higher propensity to migrate than men within the county of their birth, but males more frequently move beyond that county boundary. Economic factors are the major determinants of migration. Stouffer Theory of The number of persons going a given distance is directly (1940) intervening proportional to the number of opportunities at that opportunities distance and inversely proportional to the number of intervening opportunities. These intervening opportunities may persuade a migrant to settle in a place in the route rather than proceeding to the originally planned destination.  14 Theories of migration Theoretical Author Key ideas approach Zipf (1946) P1P2/D hypothesis, The number of persons that move between any two size-distance communities whose populations are P1 and P2 and (gravity) theory which are separated by the distance, D, is proportionate to the ratio, P1*P2/D, subject to the effect of modifying factors. Tiebout Voting with feet Given that individuals have differing personal valuations (1956) (Tiebout on local public goods and services and varying ability to hypothesis) pay the related taxes, individuals will move from one local community to another until they find the one which maximizes their personal utility. Lee (1966) “Push-pull” theory Four groups of factors which influence the process of of migration migration: 1) factors associated with the area of origin, 2) factors associated with the area of destination, 3) intervening obstacles, 4) personal characteristics. In every area there are factors which hold people within the area or attract people to it (pull), and there are others which tend to repel them (push). There are also other factors to which people are essentially indifferent.  15 Theories of migration Push and pull factors of migration Source: Simpson (2022)  16 Theories of migration Theoretical Author Key ideas approach Todaro Disequilibrium Spatial differences in wages, earnings, or income and (1969) approach: employment probabilities reflect opportunities for Sjaastad neoclassical individual utility gains that can be realized through (1962) economic theory, migration. Therefore, economic factors are the with human most influential of the push-pull factors. capital approach The potential migrant will select that locality at which the real value of the expected net benefit that accrues to him from migration is greatest. Research Segmented or Migration stems from labor demand in a segmented started after dual labor market labor market at the destination place, not from Harris and theory rational choice decisions by individuals; from pull Todaro factors rather than push factors. (1970) Migrant workers are needed as labor supply into secondary sector jobs, characterized by low wages, unstable working conditions, and lack of reasonable prospects for advancement. These are usually DDD (dirty, dangerous and demeaning) jobs that are refused by locals/natives.  17 Migration as investment in human capital The human capital model can be applied to the analysis of job mobility and migration (i.e. geographic mobility). Let BNEWt denote the utility derived from the new job in the year; BOLD t – the utility derived from the old job in the year t; T – the length of time one expects to work at the job/place; r – discount rate; С – direct migration costs (WHAT DO INCLUDE THESE COSTS?). Assuming that direct costs are one-time, the net benefits of mobility are identified as net present value: T B NEWt − B OLDt NPV =  t −C t =1 (1 + r ) and mobility/migration is reasonable if NPV>0. Age, education, marital status, distance and time preference are the main determinants of mobility according to this model.  18 Theories of migration Theoretical Author Key ideas approach Stark and New economics of Spatial economic imbalances enable people to make Bloom (1985) labor migration rational choices in order to maximize their utility, but individuals do not make these choices independently. A wider social entity such as a household or even community must be considered as well. Migration can be viewed as a strategy to diversify risks by a household that has insufficient income. Relative deprivation is an important determinant of migration: a person who is more relatively deprived can be expected to have a stronger incentive to migrate than a person who is less relatively deprived. Papers by Equilibrium Equilibrium prevails so that spatial differences in Graves cited approach wages are compensating differentials and therefore do in Greenwood not reflect opportunities for utility gains. (1997) Only those non-compensating regional differentials that remain after controlling for amenity differentials across regions should represent utility differentials that would induce migration. A conceptual model of migration decision 19 making The migration process can be thought of as having three major stages including: (1) the propensity to migrate in general, (2) the motivation to migrate to a specific location, and (3) the actual decision to migrate. Source: Weeks (Figure 6.3), adapted by Weeks from Gordon De Jong and James Fawcett, 1981, “Motivations for Migration: An Assessment and a Value-Expectancy Research Model,” in G. De Jong and R. Gardner (eds.), Migration Decision Making (New York: Pergamon Press), Figure 2.2; and Gordon De Jong, 2000, “Expectations, Gender, and Norms in Migration Decision-Making,” Population Studies 54:307–319, Figure 1.  20 Source: https://www.worldbank. org/en/news/podcast/20 23/05/25/migration- challenges-opportunities- global-economic- imbalances-population- demographic-conflict- development- podcast?cid=ECR_E_Ne wsletterWeekly_EN_EXT &deliveryName=DM1844 62 Potential effects of international labor migration: 21 sending countries Three main channels of the effects of international labor migration on the development of sending countries: Remittances Return migration Diaspora Potential effects of international labor migration: 22 sending countries I. Labor market  Emigration can provide some relief from unemployment by reducing the number of job-seekers and thus alleviating the situation of economic hardship and limited number of jobs in high emigration areas in the short-term.  However, it can create (temporary) labor shortages in certain industries or high emigration areas. This, in turn, can lead to a substitution of capital for labor in the production process, reducing job opportunities in the longer term.  If large-scale emigration leads to temporary labor shortages in specific industries or high emigration areas, it can lead to a rise in domestic wages for workers with similar skills in the short term. Potential effects of international labor migration: 23 sending countries I. Labor market and human capital  Returnees or household members receiving remittances can set up entrepreneurial activities that produce a job-creation effect.  Returnees may bring new skills, values and attitudes (‘brain gain’) that contributes to higher labor productivity.  On the other hand, (return) migration may reduce the present stock of human capital in the origin country through ‘brain waste’.  The self-selection of migrants in terms of education and skills tends to cream off some of the most enterprising and innovative workers of the sending country (‘brain drain’). This tends to have a negative effect on labor productivity and human capital base.  Emigration of teaching and research professionals may act doubly as a ‘brain drain’: firstly, by directly depriving the country of its own human capital, and secondly, by indirectly impeding the accumulation of human capital by the future generations.  Emigration may also result in a dependency of household members on remittances and reduced labor efforts (moral hazard problem). Potential effects of international labor migration: 24 sending countries II. Demographic and social effects  Large-scale emigration of workers from depressed regions and sectors depletes population and changes its age structure, further undermining economic viability of these regions.  Labor migration may affect marriage/divorce behavior and fertility rates by separating couples across international boundaries, by altering the incentives of those who might have children, or by reducing the number of individuals of reproductive age.  Labor migration may also affect morbidity and mortality rates in the origin countries through its adverse effect on health of migrant workers, increased disease transmission, and ‘brain drain’ of health workers.  (Long-term) labor migration of one or two parents can detrimentally affect educational outcomes, health performance and economic activity of the children left behind. Potential effects of international labor migration: 25 sending countries III. Economic growth and development  Remittances coupled with increased technology transfer from migrants abroad (including Diaspora) may provide resources for investment in innovative production activities. This, in turn, can stimulate exports and economic growth.  Remittances may boost investment in education and health thus contributing to human capital formation and promoting the social basis for economic development.  Remittances and extra income from migration may increase the propensity of households to consume that can increase overall output through multiplier effects. Potential effects of international labor migration: 26 sending countries III. Economic growth and development (cont.)  Remittances-induced demand for non-tradable goods such as housing and services may result in expanding local employment opportunities and the development of the financial system.  However, such remittances-induced demand may provoke inflation.  Remittances-driven conspicuous consumption of foreign goods may cause a psychological downgrading of domestic goods and a further increase in imports and worsening of the balance of payments.  Remittances in foreign currency may cause an appreciation of the real exchange rate and therefore may undermine a country’s price competitiveness (the so-called ‘Dutch disease’ which most often refers to the damaging effect of the exploitation and export of natural resources on an economy and takes its name from the crisis in the Netherlands in the 1960s).  Emigration can have negative impact on economic growth in the long run because of demographic, education and health impacts. Potential effects of international labor migration: 27 sending countries IV. Living standards  Labor migration provides opportunities for household members to finance essential human needs (including nutrition and housing), to have a better access to under-provided public goods (health care and education), to ease liquidity constraints and to smooth household consumption in case of adverse shocks, e.g. flood, crop failure, job loss, etc. (insurance function of remittances). Therefore labor migration is likely to improve living standards of households.  Labor migration can reduce the incidence of poverty in migrant-sending areas.  Remittances may be an effective means to redistribute income and thus reduce income inequality.  But remittances may sharpen income inequality in the case of the underrepresentation of the poor among migrants. Potential effects of international labor migration: 28 sending countries V. Public budget and public policy  As labor migration and remittances provide temporary relief from unemployment and poverty, they release resources from social funds and provide government with an extra degree of fiscal freedom.  But remittances and emigration may reduce government’s incentives to implement the necessary structural reforms (public moral hazard problem), while increasing the exposure of the domestic economy to external shocks.  The opportunity cost of emigration (the possible earnings forgone by the migrant and the output loss to the economy) may be significant compared to its benefits. It adversely affects tax revenues.  Temporary migrants as well as returnees after a long period of stay abroad may undermine the pension and social welfare system in the home country if their contributions made abroad (if any) are not portable. Potential effects of international labor migration: 29 sending countries Opposing views on migration and development Migration optimists Migration pessimists Neo-classical Neo-Marxist Modernization Disintegration Brain gain Brain drain More equality More inequality Balanced growth of regions Asymmetric development of regions Remittance investment Remittance consumption Development Dependency/ underdevelopment Less migration More migration Source: de Haas (2010), Table 1 29 Labor migration from Ukraine: 30 A developmental path or a low-level trap? A low-level trap in Ukraine A fiscal-policy-driven consumption Deviant behavior and exit to boom, reinforced by rapidly the shadow economy or to expanding household credit economic inactivity Inefficient public services and social protection system Delayed transition reforms; rent-seeking and state capture; weak rule of law, widespread corruption and poor investment climate Limited financial intermediation Source: Kupets (2012) Potential effects of international labor migration: 31 receiving countries Widespread concerns (often myths) that contribute to a negative perception of immigrants in the receiving countries: 1) migrants take away jobs from the local population; 2) immigration is driving down wages; 3) immigrants are a heavy burden on the country’s social welfare system; 4) immigrants take money out of the host countries; 5) immigration contributes to a higher crime rate. Potential effects of international labor migration: 32 receiving countries I. Labor market  Immigration may lead to wage gains and/or improvements in the employment prospects of those natives who are complements to the immigrants. For example, female immigrants employed in outpatient and home care of the elderly exert positive effects on the labor supply of native highly skilled females.  Immigration may lead to a reduction in the wages and/or employment prospects of those natives, who are substituted by the immigrants, or of former immigrants from other regions, with whom they compete for similar niches in the labor market. Empirical studies based on the different approaches conclude that the labor- market effects of immigration on natives are negligible or statistically insignificant, while there are often large and significant effects in terms of former immigrants. Potential effects of international labor migration: 33 receiving countries II. Demographic effects  Increased immigration flows of working age population into ageing societies can have a significant impact on the demography of the receiving countries which are assumed to have a labor shortage. Therefore, immigration can remove labor scarcity and reduce wage-push inflationary pressure.  Even the temporary immigration of low-skilled workers may be beneficial, given the demographic situation in the receiving countries. Potential effects of international labor migration: 34 receiving countries III. Productivity and economic growth  Immigration may reinforce specialization and complementarities and induce organizational changes, which, in turn, increases competition and may help to reduce protectionist measures on the labor market and hence may ultimately lead to productivity-increasing efficiency gains.  Immigration may also foster technological progress, since immigrants bring new ideas and knowledge with them, potentially increasing the transfer of technologies between countries.  However, if immigration increases the availability of low-skilled labor, incentives of firms to invest in R&D may be reduced, leading to lower technological progress. Potential effects of international labor migration: 35 receiving countries IV. Public budget  Immigration may affect the public budget of destination country through the ensuing increase in the tax base.  Temporary migrants with a formal job contract are also likely to experience serious limits on the portability of their pension rights, which could represent a gain for social welfare systems at destination.  However, immigration may negatively affect the public budget of destination country through the expanded demand for public services and receipts of public transfers.  36 Tasks for a practical class on Jan 20 1. Collect and analyze statistical information from Eurostat (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/migration-asylum/) about migration of Ukrainians to the EU countries (the widest possible period of observation; select “Ukraine”): Acquisition of citizenship by age group, sex and former citizenship Immigration by age group, sex and citizenship Immigration by age group, sex and citizenship First permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship All valid permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship on 31 December of each year Long-term residents by citizenship on 31 December of each year EU Blue Cards by type of decision, occupation and citizenship Authorisations granted for the purpose of seasonal work by status, length of validity, economic sector and citizenship Authorisations granted for study and research by reason, type of decision, citizenship and length of validity Beneficiaries of temporary protection at the end of the month by citizenship, age and sex - monthly data (+Decisions granting temporary protection by citizenship, age and sex - monthly data) Unaccompanied minors benefiting from temporary protection at the end of the month by citizenship, age and sex - monthly data  37 Tasks for a practical class on Jan 20 2. Read recommended literature and be ready to discuss: (textbook) W. Chapter 6. The Migration Transition. IOM (2024) Ukraine — Internal Displacement Report — General Population Survey Round 18 (October 2024), https://dtm.iom.int/reports/ukraine-internal-displacement- report-general-population-survey-round-18-october-2024. Luecke, Matthias, and David Saha (2019) Labour migration from Ukraine: Changing destinations, growing macroeconomic impact, GET Policy Study PS 02 | 2019, https://www.german-economic-team.com/en/publication/labour-migration-from- ukraine-changing-destinations-growing-macroeconomic-impact/ Kupets O. (2012) Characteristics and Determinants of Internal Labor Mobility in Ukraine. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, https://hdl.handle.net/10986/26804. (optional) Розділ 5 «Тенденції міграції населення» у книзі Населення України. Демографічні тенденції в Україні у 2002– 2019 рр.: кол. моногр. / за ред. О.М. Гладуна; НАН України, Ін-т демографії та соціальних досліджень імені М.В. Птухи, с. 82-111).  38 Questions to discuss (Jan 20, 2025) 1. “All migrants are movers, but not all movers are migrants”. 2. “The demographic composition of the stock of migrants could have been changed by the flows, even if the stock did not change numerically”. 3. “Аналіз обороту внутрішньої міграції в Україні у 2002–2019 роках вказав на те, що внутрішня міграція все ще залишається домінуючою формою зміни місця проживання в Україні. Так, сумарний обсяг внутрішньої міграції переважає над сумарним обсягом зовнішньої міграції у більше, ніж 10 разів” (IDSS, 2020, “НАСЕЛЕННЯ УКРАЇНИ. ДЕМОГРАФІЧНІ ТЕНДЕНЦІЇ В УКРАЇНІ у 2002‒2019 рр.”, p.83). See stats in the Excel file “Topic 3_Migration in Ukraine_from Держстат. Населення України 2021” 4. “З 25 регіонів (не рахуючи тимчасово окуповані Російською Федерацією АР Крим та м. Севастополь) лише п’ять є регіонами-реципієнтами – головними є м. Київ та Київська область, а далі в порядку спадання значення міжрегіонального міграційного приросту йдуть Одеська, Харківська, Львівська та Івано-Франківська області. Загалом, така географія регіонів-реципієнтів в основному зумовлена тим, що ці регіони є провідними науково- освітніми центрами та мають гарно диверсифіковану економіку, що є магнітом для студентства та робочої сили з інших регіонів України” (IDSS, 2020, “НАСЕЛЕННЯ УКРАЇНИ. ДЕМОГРАФІЧНІ ТЕНДЕНЦІЇ В УКРАЇНІ у 2002‒2019 рр.”, p.85). 5. “Основна частина ВПО концентрується в прилеглих до зони конфлікту областях та Києві, а також переважно в містах, особливо великих, та їх приміських зонах. Таке розміщення ВПО чинить навантаження на локальні ринки праці, інфраструктуру, житловий фонд та ринок житла19. ” (IDSS, 2020, “НАСЕЛЕННЯ УКРАЇНИ. ДЕМОГРАФІЧНІ ТЕНДЕНЦІЇ В УКРАЇНІ у 2002‒2019 рр.”, p.89).  39 Questions to discuss (Jan 20, 2025) 1. “У світових міграційних процесах Україна виступає переважно у якості донора населення та робочої сили, однак при цьому сальдо зареєстрованої або т. з. стаціонарної міграції (тобто міграції, пов’язаної з реєстрацією/зняттям з реєстрації за місцем проживання) останні півтора десятиліття є додатним” (IDSS, 2020, “НАСЕЛЕННЯ УКРАЇНИ. ДЕМОГРАФІЧНІ ТЕНДЕНЦІЇ В УКРАЇНІ у 2002‒2019 рр.”, p.91). 2. What do we know about migration of Ukrainians to the EU countries in terms of numbers and main destination countries? (Discussion of HW using data from Eurostat) 3. “Labor migration from Ukraine before a large-scale war in 2022 was predominantly male, from Western regions of Ukraine and among low-to-mid-educated people”. 4. “Migration is selective and is associated especially with age”. “...migrants in Poland tend to be younger than the labour force: 47% are under 35 vs. 34% of the general population. Hence, if the steady outflow of migrants to Poland continues as in recent years, this will accelerate the demographic trend towards an aging population in Ukraine with all the attending challenges” (Luecke and Saha, p. 17). 5. Which migration theories do seem better in explaining the factors of internal and international migration of Ukrainians (before the war)? 6. Douglas Massey (1996) said: “Immigrants understand immigration better than do politicians and academicians. Because they understand immigration better than policy makers, immigrants are often able to circumvent policies aimed at stopping them”.  40 Annex WDR-2023 framework for policymakers: Match and motive matrix A framework for policymakers suggested by 41 the World Bank: Match and motive matrix Source: World Bank (2023) World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies, Overview booklet. A framework for policymakers suggested by 42 the World Bank: Match and motive matrix Source: World Bank (2023) World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies, Overview booklet. A framework for policymakers suggested by 43 the World Bank: Match and motive matrix Source: World Bank (2023) World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies, Overview booklet. A framework for policymakers suggested by 44 the World Bank: Match and motive matrix Source: World Bank (2023) World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies, Overview booklet. A framework for policymakers suggested by 45 the World Bank: Match and motive matrix Source: World Bank (2023) World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies, Overview booklet.