Anwendungsgebiete der VWL - Long-Run Development PDF

Anwendungsgebiete der VWL Long-Run Development: Part 1 – Demographics Uwe Sunde Economics Department LMU Muenchen Wintersemester 2024/25 Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 1 Compar...

Anwendungsgebiete der VWL Long-Run Development: Part 1 – Demographics Uwe Sunde Economics Department LMU Muenchen Wintersemester 2024/25 Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 1 Comparative Development: The World Today Substantial disparities in I economic development I demographics I health / life expectancy I education I fertility I institutions I democracy I rule of law I inclusive vs. extractive institutions Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 2 Global Inequality: Income p.c. (6457.12,52301.6] (2288.45,6457.12] (609.744,2288.45] [103.776,609.744] No data Source: PWT 9.1. Year: 2010. Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 3 Global Inequality: Life Expectancy (76.25767,82.84268] (72.051,76.25767] (63.558,72.051] [45.596,63.558] No data Source: World Bank. Year: 2010. Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 4 Global Inequality: Education (tertiary) (18.3,55.8] (10.0,18.3] (3.6,10.0] [0.2,3.6] No data Source: Barro-Lee data. Year: 2010. Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 5 Global Inequality: Fertility (4.0875,7.485] (2.4615,4.0875] (1.8095,2.4615] [1.226,1.8095] No data Source: World Bank, Total Fertility Rate, Year: 2010. Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 6 Global Inequality: Democracy (9,10] (6,9] (-2,6] [-10,-2] No data Source: Polity-V. Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 7 Economic Development, Demography, and Institutions “Global Mega Trends” I demographic change I population aging I fertility decline I education expansion I technological change and economic development I increasing inequality (?) I democratic reversals (?) I (climate change and resource depletion) Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 8 Economic Development, Demography, and Institutions I Are they related? How? I Implications for global development? Today and next week: A Bird’s Eye View I microeconomics: individual decisions I macroeconomics: aggregate dynamics I filling some gaps Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 9 Demography and Economic Development Why is demography important? I Micro-view: Individual intertemporal decisions I savings I education I fertility I Macro-view: Aggregate allocation I capital stock I human capital I population dynamics Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 10 Stylized Patterns of Long-Run Development Economic Transition: I from stagnation to sustained growth of income I linked to expansion of human capital Demographic Transition: I increase of adult longevity I decline of child mortality I fertility decline Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 11 Global Inequality: Income p.c. (6457.12,52301.6] (2288.45,6457.12] (609.744,2288.45] [103.776,609.744] No data Source: PWT 9.1. Year: 2010. Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 12 Economic Development ln GDP per capita 12 11 10 ln GDP p.c. 8 7 6 5 9 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 13 Global Inequality: Life Expectancy (76.25767,82.84268] (72.051,76.25767] (63.558,72.051] [45.596,63.558] No data Source: World Bank. Year: 2010. Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 14 Demography: Longevity Dynamics Life Expectancy at Birth 80 Life Expectancy at Birth 40 20 60 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 15 Global Inequality: Fertility (4.0875,7.485] (2.4615,4.0875] (1.8095,2.4615] [1.226,1.8095] No data Source: World Bank, Total Fertility Rate, Year: 2010. Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 16 Demography: Fertility Dynamics Total Fertility Rates 8 6 Total Fertility Rate 42 0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 17 Conceptual Framework A unified model of long-run development based on Cervellati und Sunde (AER 2005, AEJ:Macro 2015). I overlapping generations with finite life expectancy I individual decisions: I education I fertility (quantity, quality) I general equilibrium: production, factor prices, incomes I externalities across generations (or countries) I health technology I production technology I =⇒ long-run equilibrium development dynamics I =⇒ delays in development due to country-specific factors Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 18 Dynamics of Long-Run Development Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 19 Dynamics of Long-Run Development 80 Life Expectancy at Birth 40 20 60 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Year (a) Life expectancy at birth 10 log Income per capita 6 4 8 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Year (b) Log Income per capita Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 20 Simulation and Data: Sweden 1750-2000 1 80 Life Expectancy at Birth and at Age 5.8 70 Share Skilled 60.6 50.4 40.2 30 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Year Data: Sweden (T0) Data: Sweden (T5) Data: Sweden Model Model Model Data: Primary School Enrolment; Model: Share Skilled (a) Life Expectancy (at birth and at (b) School Enrolment and λ 5) Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 21 Simulation and Data: Schweden 1750-2000 2.5 10 Gross and Net Fertility 2 Log GDP per capita 9 1.5 8 1.5 7 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year GRR (Data: Sweden) NRR (Data: Sweden) 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Gross Fertility (Model) Net Fertility (Model) TFR/2 (Data: Sweden) Data: Sweden Model (c) Gross / Net Reproduction Rates (d) log GDP per capita Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 22 The Timing of the Take-Off A lower extrinsic life expectancy implies I a later onset of the take-off I a permanently lower level of economic development I “extrinsic” mortality varies considerably and depends on country-specific, time-invariant factors (Cervellati, Sunde and Valmori, Mathematical Population Studies 2012) Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 23 Dynamic Implications 10 1.8 9 Ln GDP per capita Share Skilled.6 8.4 7.2 0 6 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Year Year Calibration: Baseline Calibration: High Mortality Calibration: Baseline Calibration: High Mortality (e) Education (f) Log GDP p.c. Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 24 Global Perspective 1960-2000 Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 25 Global Perspective 1960-2000 80 Life Expectancy at Birth 40 20 60 0.2.4.6.8 1 Population Share Educated Life Expectancy at Birth (1960) Life Expectancy at Birth (2000) Model (Baseline) Model (High Mortality) Model (High Mortality, Low Fertility Cost) (a) Life Expectancy Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 26 Global Perspective 1960-2000 500 80 400 Life Expectancy at Birth Child Mortality Rate 60 200 300 40 100 20 0 0.2.4.6.8 1 0.2.4.6.8 1 Population Share Educated Population Share Educated Life Expectancy at Birth (1960) Life Expectancy at Birth (2000) Child Mortality (1960) Child Mortality (2000) Model (Baseline) Model (High Mortality) Model (Baseline) Model (High Mortality) Model (High Mortality, Low Fertility Cost) Model (High Mortality, Low Fertility Cost) (a) Life Expectancy (b) Child Mortality 1 10 Population Share Educated.8 Log GDP per capita 9.6 8.4 7.2 6 0 5 0.2.4.6.8 1 0.2.4.6.8 1 Population Share Educated: Lag 40 Years Population Share Educated % with some formal education 2000 (Barro−Lee) Ln GDP per capita (1960) Ln GDP per capita (2000) Model (Baseline) Model (Baseline) Model (High Mortality) Model (High Mortality) Model (High Mortality, Low Fertility Cost) Model (High Mortality, Low Fertility Cost) (c) Log GDP p.c. (d) Education 1960 and 2000 Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 27 Life Expectancy and Changes in Education Composition.4 20.5years.6 years.6.4 40.5 over.3 over Educated Educated.3.2 Share.2 0 in Share.1 0 in.1 Change Change −.1 −.1 25 50 75 25 50 75 Life Expectancy at Birth: Lag 20 Years Life Expectancy at Birth: Lag 40 Years Change % with some formal education (1960−1980)Fitted values Change % with some formal education (1960−2000)Fitted values Model (Baseline) Model (High Mortality) Model (Baseline) Model(High Mortality) (a) Change in λ over 20 years (b) Change in λ over 40 years Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 28 Longevity and Income: The “Preston Curve” 80 70 Life Expectancy at Birth 40 5030 60 0 10000 20000 30000 GDP per capita Data, 1960 Data, 2000 Model (Baseline) Model (High Mortality) Model (High Mortality, Low Fertility Cost) Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 29 Distributions of Life Expectancy at Birth (Model and Data 1960-2000) Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 30 Distributions of Life Expectancy at Birth (Model and Data 1960-2000).05.05.04.04.03.03 Density Density.02.02.01.01 0 0 30 40 50 60 70 80 30 40 50 60 70 80 Life Expectancy at Birth, 1960 Life Expectancy at Birth, 2000 Data Model Data Model Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 31 Distributions of Child Mortality (Model and Data 1960-2000).008.008.006.006 Density Density.004.004.002.002 0 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 Child Mortality, 1960 Child Mortality, 2000 Data Model Data Model Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 32 Distributions of Share of Educated Individuals (Model and Data 1960-2000) 1.5 2 1.5 1 Density Density 1.5.5 0 0 0.5 1 0.5 1 Share Skilled, 1960 Share Skilled, 2000 Data Model Data Model Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 33 Distributions of Gross Fertility (Model and Data 1960-2000).3.3.2.2 Density Density.1.1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Total (Gross) Fertility Rate, 1960 Total (Gross) Fertility Rate, 2000 Data Model Data Model Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 34 Distributions of Net Fertility (Model and Data 1960-2000) 1 1.8.8.6.6 Density Density.4.4.2.2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Net Reproduction Rate, 1960 Net Reproduction Rate, 2000 Data Model Data Model Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 35 Distributions of Income per Capita (Model and Data 1960-2000).6.6.4.4 Density Density.2.2 0 0 6 7 8 9 10 11 6 7 8 9 10 11 Ln GDP per capita, 1960 Ln GDP per capita, 2000 Data Model Data Model Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 36 The “Facts” of (Long-Run) Growth The model delivers: I Secular acceleration from (quasi-)stagnation to sustained growth I Dramatic increase in human capital per worker I Increases in human capital have not reduced the skill premium I Market extent (population, globalization and urbanization) substantially increased I Large cross-country differences in incomes and factor productivity I Growth variability increases with distance to technology frontier Facts “that we once ruled out of bounds as important but too difficult to capture in a formal model” (Jones and Romer, AEJ:Macro 2010, p. 225). Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 37 Filling the Gaps I savings and capital? I evidence for the causal effect of life expectancy I on human capital? I on economic development? I drivers of delay? I institutions? Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 38 Filling the Gaps: Savings? “Comprehensive growth framework that fits these facts should capture the endogenous accumulation of, and interaction between, (...) four state variables: I physical capital I population I human capital I ideas (technology)” (Jones and Romer, 2010, p. 226) Can the framework incorporate savings/capital? Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 39 Dynamics of Long-Run Development Model extension: I 2-period OLG: I work, education, fertility, savings I work, returns to savings I education and fertility are costly! I aggregate capital-skill complementarity Source: Cervellati, Meyerheim, and Sunde (JoEG 2023). Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 40 Dynamics of Long-Run Development.025.02 Growth Rate (p.a.).01.015.005 0 1800 1900 2000 Year Output p.c. Growth Population Growth Source: Cervellati, Meyerheim, and Sunde (JoEG 2023). Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 41 Dynamics of Long-Run Development.025.3.02.2 Education (e).015.1.01.005 0 0 1800 1900 2000 Year Output p.c. Growth Growth in log Capital p.c. Population Growth Productivity Growth (skilled) Education (e) Source: Cervellati, Meyerheim, and Sunde (JoEG 2023). Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 42 Filling the Gaps: Evidence? Does Life Expectancy Cause Growth? I Micro evidence: does life expectancy increase schooling? I Macro evidence: does life expectancy cause growth? Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 43 Individual Decisions: Longevity and Education Conventional view: “Prototype” Ben-Porath model: I investing in human capital takes time, which is not available for market work I relaxing the (time-)budget constraint implies that greater longevity is associated with more education I longevity also affects labor supply decisions: lifetime labor supply Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 44 Evidence? Data: USA, cohorts of men born 1850-1970 (Source: M. Hazan (2009), Longevity and Lifetime Labor Supply: Evidence and Implications, Econometrica 77(6), 1829–1863) Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 45 Labor Supply? Data: USA, cohorts of men born 1840-1970 (Source: M. Hazan (2009), Longevity and Lifetime Labor Supply: Evidence and Implications, Econometrica 77(6), 1829–1863) Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 46 The Role of Health Does this imply a contradiction? No: Ben-Porath with realistic assumptions: I realistic survival law I consideration of variation along the intensive margin of labor supply I realistic human capital production function and earnings function Main implication: lifetime labor supply is not a necessary criterion for education expansions, but the relative increase of benefits over costs. Is this in line with the data? Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 47 Longevity: Rectangularization of the Survival Law Source: Cervellati, M., and U. Sunde (2013). Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 48 Average Years of Schooling and Necessary Condition 17 800.00 783.08 16 750.00 749.92 15 700.00 14 691.26 13 13.28650.00 12.45 12 600.00 11.76 576.14 11 11.00 550.00 10 528.11 502.58 9.34 500.00 9 491.12 478.20 8.71 463.84 8 8.18 8.06 8.23 450.00 441.40 7 400.00 Men Men Men Men Men Men Men Men Men Men born born born born born born born born born born 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 Average Years of Schooling [s(S)*B(S|M)]/K(S|M) (Benefits/Costs) age 14-17 Source: Cervellati, M., and U. Sunde (2013), “Life Expectancy, Schooling, and Lifetime Labor Supply: Theory and Evidence Revisited”, Econometrica 81(5), 2055-2086. Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 49 Filling the Gaps: Evidence? Does Life Expectancy Cause Growth? I Cross-country aggregate evidence: yes I NO! Contradictory evidence from panel-IV studies (Acemoglu and Johnson, JPE 2007) Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 50 Life Expectancy and Growth Consider a Solow-type closed economy with production technology Yt = (At Ht )α Kt1−α with Ht = ht · Nt. Iso-elastic reduced form effects of Life Expectancy T : I At = ATtθ , ht = hTtη and I Nt = NTtλ Then log income per capita yt = Yt /Nt (assuming a fixed K ): ln yt = α ln At + α ln ht − (1 − α) ln Nt + Bt ln yt = π ln Tt + Ct π = α (θ + η) − (1 − α)λ ≷ 0 Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 51 Life Expectancy and Growth Consider a Solow-type closed economy with production technology Yt = (At Ht )α Kt1−α with Ht = ht · Nt. Iso-elastic reduced form effects of Life Expectancy T : I At = ATtθ , ht = hTtη and I Nt = NTtλ Then log income per capita yt = Yt /Nt (assuming a fixed K ): ln yt = α ln At + α ln ht − (1 − α) ln Nt + Bt ln yt = π ln Tt + Ct π = α (θ + η) − (1 − α)λ ≷ 0 Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 52 Life Expectancy and Growth Empirical implementation: 2-way FE model ln yit = π ln Tt + ζi + µt + uit or ∆ ln yit = π∆ ln Tit + ∆µt + ∆uit with a panel involving only two observations per country. Estimation I data for 47 countries, 2 observations t0 = 1940 and t1 = 1980 (or 2000) I instrument for T : predicted mortality decline due to epidemiological transition I estimation of the model by 2SLS Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 53 Life Expectancy and Growth 1.5 PRT 1.5 Change in Log GDP per capita 1940−1980 ESP VEN Change in Log Population 1940−1980 CRI FIN GRC BRA NOR ITA FRA MEX NIC GTM ECU AUT MEX PHL HND THA BRA PAK BEL PRY COL SWE NLD CAN THA DNK PER PAN SLV CHE KOR MYS PAN 1 IRL CRI 1 MYS USA DEU ECU KOR LKA VEN AUS PER CHL COL AUS CAN IDN BGD IND SLV ARG MMR NZL ARG NZL CHN GBR PRYCHN URY CHL USA.5 HND.5 NIC PAK NLD IDN CHE URY PHL LKA ESP IND GTM NOR DNK SWE FRAFIN GRC ITA PRT GBR BEL MMR IRL DEU AUT 0 BGD 0 0.2.4.6.8 0.2.4.6.8 Change in Log Life Expectancy 1940−1980 Change in Log Life Expectancy 1940−1980 Change in log Population (1940−1980) Fitted values Change in log GDP per capita (1940−1980) Fitted values (a) Change in Log Population 1940-1980 (b) Change in Log GDP per Capita 1940-1980 Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 54 Life Expectancy and Growth Negative growth effect due to Malthusian features? What about the demographic transition? I non-monotonic effect of life expectancy on fertility I positive before the demographic transition I negative after the demographic transition I misspecification of empirical model? Evidence? Source: Cervellati, M., and U. Sunde (JoEG, 2011). Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 55 Life Expectancy and Growth 1.5 PRT 1.5 Change in Log GDP per capita 1940−1980 ESP VEN Change in Log Population 1940−1980 CRI FIN GRC BRA NOR ITA FRA MEX NIC GTM ECU AUT MEX PHL HND THA BRA PAK BEL PRY COL SWE NLD CAN THA DNK PER PAN SLV CHE KOR MYS PAN 1 IRL CRI 1 MYS USA DEU ECU KOR LKA VEN AUS PER CHL COL AUS CAN IDN BGD IND SLV ARG MMR NZL ARG NZL CHN GBR PRYCHN URY CHL USA.5 HND.5 NIC PAK NLD IDN CHE URY PHL LKA ESP IND GTM NOR DNK SWE FRAFIN GRC ITA PRT GBR BEL MMR IRL DEU AUT 0 BGD 0 0.2.4.6.8 0.2.4.6.8 Change in Log Life Expectancy 1940−1980 Change in Log Life Expectancy 1940−1980 Change in log Population (1940−1980) Fitted values Change in log GDP per capita (1940−1980) Fitted values (a) Change in Log Population 1940-1980 (b) Change in Log GDP per Capita 1940-1980 Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 56 Life Expectancy and Growth 1.5 PRT Change in Log GDP per Capita 1940−1980 1.5 Change in Log Population 1940−1980 ESP VEN BRA CRI FIN GRC NIC NOR ITA FRA MEX GTM ECU HND AUT MEX PHL THA BRA PAK BEL SWE THA PRY PER PAN COL SLV NLD DNKCAN CHE KOR MYS PAN 1 IRL CRI 1 MYS USA DEU ECU KOR LKA VEN AUS PER CHL COL AUS CAN IDN BGD IND SLV ARG MMR NZL ARG NZL CHN GBR PRYCHN URY CHL USA.5 HND.5 NIC PAK NLD PHL IDN CHE URY LKA ESP IND GTM NOR DNK SWE FRA FIN GRC ITA PRT GBR BEL IRL MMR DEU AUT 0 BGD 0 0.2.4.6.8 0.2.4.6.8 Change in Log Life Expectancy 1940−1980 Change in Log Life Expectancy Pre−Transitional Post−Transitional Pre−Transitional Post−Transitional Fitted Line (Pre) Fitted Line (Post) Fitted Line (Pre) Fitted Line (Post) (a) Change in Log Population 1940-1980 (b) Change in Log GDP per Capita 1940-1980 Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 57 Filling the Gaps: Drivers of Delay? Timing of demographic transition I explains contemporaneous economic development differences I determines growth potential and growth dynamics (see below) What determines the timing? I heterogeneity in extrinsic mortality I heterogeneity in demand for human capital Evidence? I historical population dynamics (Siuda and Sunde, JoEG, 2021) I historical patterns of technology adoption (Franck and Galor, JME 2021) I structural estimates of “deep determinants” of development (Cervellati, Meyerheim, Sunde, mimeo 2024) Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 58 Filling the Gaps: Institutions? Are institutions (“democracy”) irrelevant? Recurrent debate about the income-democracy nexus: I does income cause democracy? I does democracy cause growth? Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 59 Institutions – The Income-Democracy Nexus I long-run growth leads to inequality dynamics I models of institutional change are typically based on inequality and redistributive conflict I combining these views provides new insights Next week! Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 60 Conclusion Demographic dynamics are crucial to understand development and inequality dynamics! I health/longevity determines individual intertemporal decisions (especially education) I fertility decisions and population dynamics affect wage structure I global development patterns are closely linked to heterogeneous demographics Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 61 References I Acemoglu, Daron, and Simon Johnson (2007): “Disease and Development” Journal of Political Economy, 115(6), 925–985. I Cervellati, Matteo, Gerrit Meyerheim, and Uwe Sunde (2023): “The Empirics of Economic Growth Over Time and Across Nations: A Unified Growth Perspective” Journal of Economic Growth, 28, 173-224. I Cervellati, Matteo, Gerrit Meyerheim, and Uwe Sunde (2024): “Decomposing Economic Development: How Accumulation Shapes the Past, Present, and Future”, mimeo. I Cervellati, Matteo and Uwe Sunde (2005), “Human Capital, Life Expectancy and the Process of Development”, American Economic Review, 95(5), 1653–1672. I Cervellati, Matteo and Uwe Sunde (2011), “Life Expectancy and Economic Growth: The Role of the Demographic Transition”, Journal of Economic Growth, 16(2), 99-133. I Cervellati, Matteo and Uwe Sunde (2013), “Life Expectancy, Schooling, and Lifetime Labor Supply: Theory and Evidence Revisited”, Econometrica 81(5), 2055-2086. I Cervellati, Matteo and Uwe Sunde (2015), “The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality and Comparative Development”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(3), 189–225. I Cervellati, Matteo, Uwe Sunde, and Simona Valmori (2012), “The Distribution of Infectious Diseases and Extrinsic Mortality Across Countries”, Mathematical Population Studies 19(2), 73-93. I Cervellati, Matteo, Uwe Sunde, and Klaus F. Zimmermann (2017), “Demographic Dynamics and Long-Run Development: Insights for the Secular Stagnation Debate”, Journal of Population Economics 30, 401–430. I Siuda, Fabian, and Uwe Sunde (2021): “Disease and Demographic Development: The Legacy of the Plague”, Journal of Economic Growth, 26(1), 1–30, 2021. Uwe Sunde Topics Vorlesung I WiSe 2024/25 62