Neo-Neo Debate Slides (International Relations)

2024/2025 CLASS 5 – The Neo-Neo Debate Lecturer : Dr. Valentina Brogna (replacing Prof. Amandine Orsini) THE PRISONER’S DILEMMA NEO-REALISM THE COLD WAR “Political, strategic, military as well as ideological and cultural opposition that took place between two antagonistic blocks struc...

2024/2025 CLASS 5 – The Neo-Neo Debate Lecturer : Dr. Valentina Brogna (replacing Prof. Amandine Orsini) THE PRISONER’S DILEMMA NEO-REALISM THE COLD WAR “Political, strategic, military as well as ideological and cultural opposition that took place between two antagonistic blocks structured around two superpowers that never entered into direct conflict” (translated from Quétel, 2008:11)  THE DIFFERENT STAGES OF THE COLD WAR 1945-1953: setting up of the Cold War – “containment” 1956-1961: peaceful coexistence. Warsaw Pact (1955) 1961-1962: the acute crises 1962-1975: the ‘détente’ 1979-1985: the tense observation 1985-1991: the end of the Cold War Note: the number of stages are not ‘set in stone’ and can differ depending on the specialists... NEO-REALIST THEORY: KENNETH WALTZ (1924- 2013) University of California, Berkeley, Columbia University “Man, the State and War” (1959) Theory of International Politics (1979) A “THIRD-IMAGE” THEORY “Man, the State and War” (1959) Main causes of war? - First-image theories à human nature - Second-image theories à internal causes within States - Third-image theories à features of the international system (ex: structure) Waltz: third-image theory: “A war occurs because there’s nothing to prevent it” = ANARCHY  Billiard ball model Ordering Principle Anarchy – Each state wants to survive and protect itself from other states => balance of power THE BALANCE OF POWER Kenneth Waltz’s Theory of International Politics (1979)  STATES AND POWER DIFFERENTIAL Differentiation Principle: States differ significantly only regarding their greatly varying capabilities in performing similar tasks. “To say that a state is sovereign means that it decides for itself how it will cope with its internal and external problems”. BUT… the states that have greater capabilities - the great powers - are the ones that determine changes in the structure of the international system. The power differentials between states explains international relations. International change occurs when great powers rise and fall and the balance of power shifts accordingly. “If there is any distinctively political theory of international politics, balance-of-power theory it is.” K. Waltz Theory of International Politics, 1979, p.117. “(Cold war) is firmly rooted in the structure of post-war international politics, and will last as long as that structure endures.” K. Waltz, ‘The Origin of War in Neo-Realist Theory”, in The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars, Rotberg & Rabb (eds), 1989, p.52 Neo-realism: central analytical focus is on the structure of the system (external to the actors) and the relative distribution of power.  MULTIPOLAR / BIPOLAR SYSTEMS Bipolar systems – e.g., Cold War with the US and the Soviet Union – vs multipolar systems – e.g., those existed both before and after the Cold War Bipolar systems are more stable and peaceful than multipolar systems Reasons: 1. Fewer great-power conflicts 2. Deterrence is possible 3. Lower chances of miscalculation DEFENSIVE REALISM JOHN J. MEARSHEIMER (1947-) University of Chicago The False Promise of International Institutions (1994) The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2001)  OFFENSIVE REALISM Mearsheimer: anarchy => power competition at its maximum level = States seek hegemony Idea of ‘regional hegemons’: states can only become the hegemon in their own region of the world “Great powers are always searching for opportunities to gain power over their rivals, with hegemony as their final goal” (Mearsheimer, 2001:29) THE TRAGEDY OF GREAT POWER POLITICS (Mearsheimer) KEY IDEA 1: COOPERATION DOES EXIST, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE AND TO SUSTAIN KEY IDEA 2: INSTITUTIONS ARE ESSENTIALLY ‘ARENAS FOR ACTING OUT POWER RELATIONSHIPS’ KEY IDEA 3: BECAUSE STATES ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE BALANCE OF POWER, THEY WILL BE PRIMARILY MOTIVATED BY RELATIVE GAINS “While each state wants to maximize its absolute gains, it is more important to make sure that it does better, or at least not worse that the other state in any agreement.” KEY IDEA 4: RIVALS, AS WELL AS ALLIES, COOPERATE “Balance-of-power logic often causes states to form alliances and cooperate against common enemies.” BACK TO THE 4 KEY QUESTIONS: NEO-REALISM WHO? States WHAT? War and peace / distribution of power/stability / institutions HOW/WHY? War can be explained by anarchy; only bipolarity can bring the ‘absence of war’; Institutions are created because of the relative gains they provide to powerful states SO WHAT? Any ideas? CLASSICAL REALISM VS NEO- REALISM International politics is power politics, due to: - CR: human nature - N-R: ANARCHY States look internationally for: - CR and OFFENSIVE REALISM: power - N-R: security and survival (DEFENSIVE REALISM) Stability within the international system (not peace) is possible due to: - CR: Multipolar balance (Morgenthau -> 19th century stability) - N-R: bipolar balance (Waltz -> Cold War) BOTH APPROACHES: BALANCE OF POWER (2 or more powers) => UNIPOLAR system possible?  NEO-LIBERAL INSTITUTIONALISM Information exchange => cooperation 25. NPT – signed: 1968; entry into force: 1970; member states: 191 (Sept. 2024) Horizontal proliferation  TO SUM UP: T H E N E O - N E O D E B AT E  VS Joseph Grieco (1953 -) Duke University “Anarchy and the limits of cooperation: a realist critique of the newest liberal institutionalism” (1988) Cooperation is a positive-sum game Cooperation is a zero-sum game Neo-realists: Neo-liberal institutionalists: - individual, relative gains - collective, absolute gains - conflict, not cooperation - cooperation is useful for all states - States resort to cooperation IF it - Information sharing through IOs is in their (security) interests OR - BUT states have to be INDUCED because of POWER to cooperate (through IOs) DIFFERENTIALS - Cooperation is a positive-sum - Cooperation is a zero-sum game game  NEO-NEO SYNTHESIS In the end, Keohane and Grieco (and the other scholars in the debate) found a synthesis. They differentiated between: - The economic domain of cooperation è States look for absolute gains, cooperation is easier (ex: International Trade) - The strategic domain of cooperation è States look for relative gains, as security is at stake, thus cooperation is harder (ex: Military domain) BALDWIN 1993 – NEOREALISM AND NEOLIBERALISM: THE C O N T E M P O R A R Y D E B AT E (EXTRACT)