Prelude: Setting the Stage for WWII

Prelude: Setting the Stage for WWII Dynamics leading up to WWII It is important to note that these are two events that will, themselves, shape future events and evolutions. It does not mean that they necessarily caused WWII, especially not the Russian revolution. The Russian revolution The Russia...

Prelude: Setting the Stage for WWII Dynamics leading up to WWII It is important to note that these are two events that will, themselves, shape future events and evolutions. It does not mean that they necessarily caused WWII, especially not the Russian revolution. The Russian revolution The Russian revolution was a very important event that would have a wide and lasting impact, not just on Russia, but on the entire European continent and, eventually the whole world. In full war, revolution bursts in Russia and the revolutionaries get rid of the Russian Monarchy of the emperor, Tsar Nicholas II. The Russian revolution actually happened in two phases: A first revolution erupts in February of 1917 in Petrograd – known today as St. Petersburg and Russia’s capital at the time. After the emperor abdicated, a provisional government was set up. At the same time, the power of ‘Councils of workmen and soldiers’, called ‘Soviets’, increasingly grew. The provisional government, however, was considered as representing the interests of the wealthy capitalists and aristocrats. The Soviets were under control of the Bolsheviks, the communists led by Lenin, who was in exile in Switzerland at the time of the first revolution in February. So he did everything that was possible to return to St Petersburg as soon as possible. The Bolsheviks asked for an immediate end to the war, which was a heavy burden on Russia. The Bolsheviks were displeased with the provisional government and in October 1917, they overthrew the provisional government and took power. In March 1918, the communist government signed the Brest-Litovsk Treaty, ending the war between the central powers and the Soviets. This allowed the Central powers (Germany and the Austro-Hungarian empire) to focus on the Western front only – before that, they were fighting both the Russians in the East, and the allied forces (Great Britain and France) in the West. However, while the Russians ended the war, around the same time, the Americans had decided to join the allied forces. Both the allies and the central powers wanted to end the war quickly; the allies for fear of social unrest and the central powers because they would not be able to sustain their war efforts for much longer. It is important to note that during that time, many people started asking why they were sacrificing the lives of ordinary people for wars that were conducted by wealthy kings and generals who would never join the battle themselves. This idea that the rich and powerful were exploiting the powerless masses was not only felt in factories, but also on the front. Now, this movement was strongest in Russia, but it also spread to other countries, including France, Belgium and Germany. One of the consequences on the longer term is that there would be an important country actively supporting and spreading these revolutionary ideas, which was considered as a major threat to the other powers. Lenin’s travels This is a map of how Lenin travelled back from his exile in Switzerland to Saint Petersburg in Russia. As you can tell, this is not the shortest way. However, it was the only way that allowed him to return to St Petersburg without having to cross large parts of Russia, where he was not welcome. Strikingly, He travelled through Germany, with which his country was at war at the time. The Germans, however, believed that they could weaken Russia by allowing his return. They knew that if Lenin succeeded, he had pledged to end the war. If he did not succeed in his revolution, he could at least hurt the Russians enough to weaken them, this way serving German interests. That is why they allowed him to cross Germany without being detected. Brest-Litovsk After the October revolution of 1917, Russia ended the war with the Central Powers and basically crashed into civil war. Ending the war with the Central Powers came at an important cost; the loss of a lot of important territory, land on which it was possible to grow crops and where there were interesting resources. After the end of WW1, new countries will be formed between Germany and Russia to form a buffer between them. Under Stalin, the Russians will try to win these territories, like the Baltic states and Ukraine, back. The Versailles Treaty The Versailles Treaty comes at the end of the Paris Peace Conference and will set the conditions of the peace between the allies and Germany and in large part reshape Europe. There will be similar Treaties with the four other countries who lost the War; Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary and the Ottoman empire  A first accomplishment of the treaty is the establishment of the League of Nations, a precursor of the United Nations. The goal was to settle disputes through debate instead of war, but the League was completely powerless and, therefore, ineffective.  As for Germany, the terms of the treaty were very heavy.  They included territorial losses, both in Europe and in their colonies, as you will see in the maps in the next slides.  Heavy military restrictions, as Germany’s military would now be limited both in terms of personnel and in weapons  Germany was also forced to pay reparations for the damages caused to the countries with which it was at war. This will cause very high inflation to the German economy  And finally, Germany will be labelled the aggressor, the one responsible for WW1 WWI the Broken Vienna System In the next few slides, we will explain the geopolitical impact of WWI, which will lead to the creation of new states or bring back countries that had been temporarily absorbed by the major powers, like Poland. The goal of this part is to explain how fast and deep these changes were and how they will, in turn, contribute to WWII. It will also help you understand why the world looked the way it did at the onset of WWII and how it evolved to eventually shape Europe into what it looks like today. The Broken Vienna System The Vienna system, also known as the Concert of Europe, was put in place after Napoleon was defeated by a coalition of the British, Dutch, and Germans. The Vienna System refers to the multipolar world order after 1815, whereby the major powers tried to maintain a balance of power and prevent was between them in Europe. There are different phases of the Concert of Europe, which we will not discuss further here. After the German unification, the German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, revived the Concert of Europe to secure Germany’s new gains and its position in Europe. Now, there are a number of reasons why the Vienna System or the Concert of Europe will break down. Here, we highlight the two most important ones; the rise of nationalism, and the rigidity of the coalitions. In the next slide, you can observe how the Ottoman empire had been in a relative decline for years. Basically, many populations no longer wanted to be part of an empire ruled by the Ottoman. As you can see on the slide after the next one, the Austro-Hungarian empire also included many different nationalities and ethnicities. And so, nationalism was a real threat to the existence of both the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empire If either or both these two empires would crumble or lose territories, they feared that the Russian empire would try to seize them, take a hold of them – and thus, become bigger. This was particularly the case for the territories with large Slavic populations, like the Bulgarians, the Serbs, Croats and Ukrainians. If the Russians would seize these territories and include them to their empire, they would significantly grow and threaten the existence of the other major powers. Aside from the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empire themselves, especially Germany would also consider Russia as a threat, as it would then become almost surrounded by Russia. And so, preventing the disintegration of those empires became very important for Germany. A second factor that would accelerate the breakdown of the Vienna System is the rigidity of the coalitions, which were no longer serving the purpose of preventing war, maintaining stability in Europe or preventing the dominance of one of the major powers. And so, we will see that Germany will stand by its ally, Austria-Hungary, even if this will lead them into war. At the time, Germany was part of the triple alliance, which also included Austria-Hungary and Italy. Due to this system of alliances, the triple alliance, and especially Germany will feel surrounded, trapped almost, by the triple entente, with France on its West front, Russia on its Eastern borders and Great Britain who dominated the seas, including the North Sea and the Baltic Sea if necessary  And so, the Vienna system will no longer serve its purpose A Chain of Events So, what exactly happened that caused WW1and what were some of the main geopolitical considerations? - On June 28, Gavrillo Princip kills Franz Ferdinand, the son of the Austrian emperor, who was visiting Sarajevo. Princip was a nationalist who no longer wanted Bosnia to be ruled by the Austro-Hungarian empire, but wanted Bosnia to be part of a greater Serb nation. - This set in motion a chain of events - As a reaction, Austria-hungary sets an ultimatum to Serbia on July 23, which is declined. The demands were so far-going and humiliating that the Serbs asked for help from the Russians. As you know, the Russians and the Serbs are both Slavic peoples of Orthodox faith, so they have always been close allies. But the Russians wanted to avoid war with Germany, so they refused and pushed te Serbs to accept the ultimatum. So the Serbs made far-reaching concessions to accept as much from the ultimatum as they could to avoid war - Eventually, Austria-Hungary decides to attack Belgrade, the Serb capital on July 28. Germany was pushing towards war, as they saw the Russians growing their power and gaining military strength and saw this as a threat. It was now or never. - Russia supports Serbia and mobilizes its troops on July 30 - In response, the axis powers do the same and demand Russia to demobilize on July 31, which of course they don’t. Russia declines to demobilize - On August 1st, Germany declares war on Russia in support of their Austrian ally - France then mobilizes on August 2nd, setting in motion the alliances between the major powers. - On august 6, Austria Hungary declares war on Russia - After Belgium refuses to grant Germany free passage, the Germans invade Belgium. At that moment, Belgium was a neutral country whose neutrality was guaranteed by the British. And so, the British declares war on Germany on August 4th - On August 12, Britain and France declare war on Austria Hungary. - And so, Europe is now lit on fire, with all the major powers declaring war on each other. - By 1914, through centuries of colonization, Europeans had gained control of 84% of the world. So very quickly, this conflict spread to major parts of the world, in North Africa and Near Asia where the British and French fought against the Ottoman empire, which had joined the axis powers, in sub-Saharan Africa, where Belgian Congo was facing German Ruanda-Urundi and Tanzania. These are just a few examples of how major parts of the world got involved in war, which was basically a conflict between royalties, between families, between cousins. Europe 1914 vs 1923 In this slide and the next, you can see the impact of WWI on the European map and how its border were redrawn. A couple of things stand out; First, the Austro-Hungarian empire completely collapsed creating new countries. While some would themselves disintegrate later on, like Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, most of borders that were established then still exist today. And that is one of the reasons why it is important to know this part of history to understand why Europe, and certain other parts of the world, look the way they look today. This is because the Allied powers at the Versailles Treaty decided to create relatively large and strong countries as a buffer around Germany and between Germany and the Soviet Union. Second, instead of growing beyond its borders and increasing its power, Germany actually lost territory in the East, Third, Russia, now the Soviet Union, also lost a lot of its territory, compared to before the war started. It could certainly be argued that the communist leadership made an important strategic mistake by negotiating peace with the Germans. The Sykes-Picot Agreement The Sykes-Picit agreement of 1916 is important to understand why the Middle East looks the way it does today and also helps understand the roots of the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel. Despite military reforms which rebuilt the Ottoman Army, the Ottoman Empire lost its North African territories in 1911 and almost all of its European territories in the Balkan Wars of 1912–13. When the second World War broke out, the Ottoman empire were allies of the axis powers. The British recruited Thomas Lawrence to help organize an Arab revolt against the Ottoman empire. His pre-war connections made him particularly effective in this role. He fought alongside the Arabs in a series of battles between 1916 and 1918. Through Lawrence, the British had promised independence to the Sharif of Mecca and the Arab Allies who participated in the rebellion. Lawrence would later attend the 1919 Paris Peace Conference to press for these promises to be kept. However, instead, the British and French divided Arab territories between themselves under the terms of the Sykes–Picot Agreement, which they had secretly negotiated in 1916. WWII We will spend quite some slides and some time on WWII and on certain events that will turn out to be decisive for what the world order will be, what the division of power among great powers will be and for how Europe will be shaped. These events and evolutions will later also help us understand how the Cold War will develop. In the next slides, we will see how the War starts and develops, when and how the tide will turn to the advantage of the allies. At that point, the allies will start thinking about how to prepare the world once the war is over and how to avoid some of the mistakes made after World War I. Preparing for War While we generally refer to the second world war as occurring between 1940 and 1945, for a number of countries, the German territorial expansion, in certain cases aggression, happened well before. 1938 On 13 March 1938, Germany annexes Austria; the Germans invade Austria and are greeted with enthusiasm and without any violence. On 30 September of that same year, the Munich Agreement recognizes the German annexation of the Sudetenland – the German-speaking part of Czechoslovakia. Signed by UK, France, Germany and Italy, this was part of the appeasement policy, as France and Britain did not feel ready for a military conflict and wanted to prevent war with Germany. 1939 On 14 March Czechoslovakia disintegrates and Germany annexes the Czech part (Bohemia and Moravia), thus creating a new Slovac state On 23 August 1939, the German and Soviet ministers of foreign affairs, Molotov and von Ribbentrop, sign a neutrality pact, which surprises and worries the French and the British, especially since Germany and the Soviet Union are considered as arch-enemies. We will later find out that Germany and the Soviet Union also divide the territories that lay between them. On September 1st, Germany Invades Poland. As a response, Britain starts general mobilization. Then, on 3 September, British and French declare War on Germany and the first hostilities between the UK and Germany occur On 17 September, the Soviets invasion the eastern part of Poland, as foreseen in the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement 1940 But then, not a lot happens between Germany, Britain and France for a while. This period would come to be known as the Phoney War or the Sitzkrieg, in contrast to Blietzkrieg. At least not until 7 months later, in April 1940, when the Germans invaded Denmark and Norway. Then, on 10 May, German troops invaded Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxemburg and France. WWII Key events: East Let us start by focusing on the Key events on the eastern front in Europe. We have already mentioned the Molotiv-Ribbentrop Agreement between Germany and the Soviet Union. But why would two countries that have such profound differences and that some would call archenemies negotiate a pact of non- aggression between them? Well, there are a number of reasons; First, Hitler wanted to avoid having to fight on two sides – both on the West with Britain and France and on the East with the Soviets. This way, he could avoid an alliance between his enemies. Stalin realized the Soviet Union was not yet ready to compete and had to reorganize the forces of the Red Army. During the 1920s and 1930s, the Soviet Union had been going through a civil war first and then important purges, including in the army. This means that Stalin got rid of some of the best Russian and Soviet generals and tacticians. The Soviet Union had a large army in terms of manpower, soldiers, but it was rebuilding its equipment. The advantage of a large country like the Soviet Union, with a large population and vast resources, is that it can quickly achieve a high production, building a lot of arms and tanks very quickly. Also, they both benefitted from their agreement, as both countries annexed a piece of Poland. Exactly one week after signing the agreement, the Germans invaded Poland, the Soviets followed soon. Both armies met at Brest-Litovsk. Shortly after, the Soviet Union would also occupy Finland and the three Baltic States. The question then, of course, arises as to why the Germans would turn on their Soviet counterpart and decide to engage in Operation Barbarossa: Basically, for Hitler, the agreement served a purpose at the time that it was signed and those motivations were no longer applicable The first reason was Russia’s weakness: Hitler wanted to attack the Soviets before the Red army become too strong. The invasion of Yugoslavia in March 1941 and the fact that Soviets did not react in support of their Slavic allies, signified to Germany that the SU was weak and that it was the right moment to attack. During the “great purge” of 1936, Stalin got rid of (suspected) opponents of his communist regime, among which many military officers, which had weakened the Red Army. Second; this was a strategic move towards Britain: the Germans wanted to remove any British hope that the Soviet Union would join the war against Germany by occupying the USSR, this way pushing England to seek peace. At that point, Britain stood alone in its fight against Germany and it was struggling to defend itself. As we will see, the German attack will have the exact opposite effect The third motivation was resources and supplies: Hitler wanted to take ahold of the strategic supplies and resources for which he did not want to depend on Stalin and the Russians, like the oil fields in the Caucasus and grain fields in Ukraine), for example. Shortly after the German attack, the Soviets joined the allied powers. As we will see later on in this course, operation Barbarossa will not pan out for the Germans as planned and the effects will be disastrous for the Germans. Operation Barbarossa will signify the beginning of the end for Germany. Operation Barbarossa The goal of Operation Barbarossa was to invade and occupy the European part of the Soviet Union. In terms of troops, this was the largest military operation in history. Germany planned a rapid and total victory, like it had conquered the Western front. The Germans relied on their technological and strategic superiority, but also on the support of local non-Russian populations, in countries like the Ukraine, for example. The Soviet Union did not expect the operation and was not prepared to it. They knew the attack might come at some point in time, but not now, not this early. The Germans quickly made swift advances and the operation was initially very successful. But, Hitler underestimated the resilience, military capacity and strength of the Soviets. He stumbled upon the largest army in the world, heavily armed. For the Soviets, it was important to hold the Germans off long enough, to stand their ground until their production of arms and tanks would be able to supply their large armies. To do this, the soviets could count on what looked like an almost endless supply of new fresh troops, even after major losses. There were three main “targets” and the German army was divided in three parts: The industrial heart of the USSR (Leningrad); the political heart (Moscow, the capital) The natural resources in the south (oil and grain) The Germans greatly miscalculated the number of reserve troops of the USSR and believed the soviet regime would quickly collapse from internal opposition WWII Key Events: The Pacific In the Pacific, war had already begun way before 1940, as Japan had invaded and try to conquer important parts of China since 1937. Japan tried to build an empire by invading Chinese land. In September of 1940, Japan sided with the axis powers by signing a pact with Germany and Italy. But it was only in December of 1941, that the Pacific would fall into full World War mode when the Japanese attacked the American naval base of Pearl Harbor. This was a meticulously planned attack by the Japanese (including over 400 airplanes) This caused great damage to the Americans and almost none on the Japanese side; in total over 2000 Americans were killed and over 1000 US soldiers wounded. This will be a determining event, as it will officially bring in the United States into WWII, first in the Pacific, but also on the European theater. Why did the Japanese decide to attack and provoke the Americans? The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in the hopes that it would scare the Americans, which they believed did not have the stomach for an all-out war. They wanted to heavily destroy the American fleet so that they would have free game in the Pacific, as they had more plans to invade and conquer more territories. The Japanese wanted to dominate the Pacific and eliminate any other threat, knowing that the British, the French and the Dutch were either too busy or had already capitulated in Europe. So shortly after the attack on Pearl Harbor, the Japanese attacked Thailand, Hong Kong and the Philippines, which was an American colony at the time, and also the Dutch colony of Indonesia Map of the Pacific The next slide shows the different colonial territories in the pacific in September of 1939, so well before the attack on Pearl Harbor. By this time, Japan had already taken over important parts of China, especially on its coast, which was important for trade. A bit lower, you see French Indochina in purple, which would be Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. To the West, in yellow, you see the British empire, which included todays India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, known as Burma and Sri Lanka also known as Ceylon. In orange, we have the Dutch East Indies, today known as Indonesia. Pearl Harbor Here, we see the sinking of the USS Arizona in Pearl Harbor. The attack was carried out by 350 aircraft in two waves departing from 6 aircraft carriers While the attack can certainly be considered a success for the Japanese, its impact was actually fairly limited. Since the ships were in the harbor, they were in shallow water, so they would not completely sink and it would be possible to salvage or repair them. This would have been impossible at open sea. Since they were in harbor, the personnel was not in the ships and so, the number of casualties on the American side were fairly limited, especially compared to the number of casualties if the ships had sunk in open seas. Finally, the American aircraft carriers, the most important ships of the fleet, were not in the harbor that day. WWII Key Events: West The next slides show how the events of late 1941 and early 1942 will start turning the tide to the advantage of the Allies. In July 1943, the Allies invade Sicily and Italy from the South moving up. The goal is to attract military troops to this front and then later on open a second front in the coast of Normandy. This would allow the allies to pinch the Germans out of France while the Soviets push them back in the East. By 1944, the Soviets began to capitalize their numerical superiority in January in the center and south. The Soviet resources were so ample that they could attack a sector of the German line, force Hitler to commit his reserves there, then hit another sector of the German line. Hitler’s insistence on not permitting any withdrawals made them extra vulnerable. The pressures on Germany became overwhelming in June with the Anglo-American landings in Normandy, commonly known as D-Day (6 June). Hitler, convinced that the main landings would take place further east, had withheld panzer forces. In July, the American army broke through the defenses, and the German positions in France collapsed. The war had to be fought to a finish, without any consideration of compromise. Allies would only accept unconditional surrender. At this point, there was a widespread feeling among the allies that hurting or even destroying Germany would be even better than its surrender. Preparing Post WWII The allies needed to coordinate their efforts if they wanted to win the war. Forcing the Germans to fight on several fronts was an important step, but by working together and coordinating their attacks, they could make more important and decisive advances towards winning the war. As the tide started to turn in favor of the allies, the question arose how to deal with Germany, Europe and even the world after the end of the War. How to deal with the liberated countries and how could we prevent another global war? How do you deal with Germany and avoid mistakes of the past that contributed to the second WW, like the Versailles Treaty? At the same time, some started to worry about a Soviet takeover of Europe, or at least of major parts in Eastern Europe. Finally, another question would how to reconstruct or rebuild Europe, which was completely in ruins? The answers to these questions needed to be agreed upon among the allies. Conferences To coordinate their efforts and address the previously mentioned questions in the previous slide, the allies will organize a series of conferences. On top of that, there will also be a number of bilateral meetings. Churchill especially, will travel a lot to meet with Roosevelt or Stalin. Here, we will dig a little deeper into four conferences, which are generally considered as the most important ones, and which will determine the further course of history. It is important to keep in mind that the war ends in Europe in early May – officially 8 May 1945, and in Asia only on 2 Sept. 2 1945 The first, Casablanca, conference is principally aimed at establishing a coordinated strategy among the allies. During the three others, Yalta and Potsdam, the Allies were discussing how to deal with the post-war world Casablanca Conference On the next slide, you will see generals Giraud (left) and De Gaulle standing, with Pres. Roosevelt and British PM Churchill (right). Stalin was invited and welcomed this meeting but he could not join because of the ongoing battle of Stalingrad. Now, it was later confirmed that Stalin had a profound fear of flying, which also explains why he was not present in Casablanca. It was decided to invite French general Giraud, commander of the French forces, as well as general De Gaulle, leader of the French resistance, to reconcile the two men. The Conference established two important decisions: First, the doctrine of unconditional surrender: The Soviets were afraid that the other allies would try to negotiate peace with Germany and let the Soviets fight alone against the Germans on the Eastern front. The goal was to send the message to the Soviets that the allies would fight till the end to avoid that the SU would try to negotiate a separate peace. This was Criticized by some as propaganda that may have prolonged the war. Churchill, for example, had no problem with the aims but he found unwise to make such a declaration because it encouraged or motivate the Germans to fight to the end. The second main decision was to invade Sicily as a first step of an operation against Italy. The strategy was to first invade Italy from the south -> the Germans would then have to pull back some troops from the Western front in France and Eastern front in Russia - > then the allies would invade France and push through. Of course, this would be easier said than done: o First, the Atlantic had to be cleared from Donitz’ U boats. o The allies had to support the Soviets logistically o The allies would attack the German war industry by air from the UK o Preparations needed to be mad to invade France and the European continent when the time was ready Different Perspectives While the first conference in Casablanca mainly dealt with how to win the war, the next conferences would already address what to do with Germany and how to deal with the liberated territories. Very quickly, we will see that the three main powers, the US, the Soviet Union and Britain would have very different interests and perspectives that will be very hard to reconcile. These differences will also contribute to what will later become the Cold War. The Soviet perspective: The Soviets perspective was that of spheres of influence, were each of the three would be responsible for the security in areas of its vital interest. Its vital interests were Eastern and Central Europe, especially Poland and Romania where the Soviets could only obtain friendly governments by imposing them. They believed it was necessary to control these countries to guarantee their security. This was a very conservative perspective, as this was how it was done in the early times; the victor of a war can dominate the one who lost and take over territories. The United States: The US wanted to replace the power politics and spheres by liberal principles, which would eventually serve the American interest better. The Americans believed that this old way of power politics and alliances and counter alliances was what had caused so many wars in Europe. Roosevelt believed that more liberal and democratic societies would not go to war as quickly. The Americans also believed that they would be able to exert more influence on open, liberal societies. For the Americans, it was important that Europe would again buy American products after the war is over. That is why the Americans believed in the principles that people should be able to decide who their political leaders are; this also means they do not support the idea of colonies. The US’ vital interests were in Latin America and the Pacific Great Britain: The needs of the British Empire required spheres of influence and close co-operation with the United States. The British had a rather ambiguous position, as they believed it was important to establish those liberal principles for liberated countries like Poland, Hungary and Romania, but they were not eager or enthusiast to apply the liberal principles in their own sphere of influence. Britain’s’ vital interests lay in the Middle East and the Mediterranean and they were not planning on letting that go. And so, this is the context in which these negotiations, those conferences will take place Tehran Conference The Teheran Conference took place in late 1943 and at this point, the tide was already well in favor for the Allies. The Tehran Conference is the first of the Big Three conferences where Roosevelt, Stalin, and Churchill will attend. And so, discussions focused on opening a 2nd Western front. The Russians urged the other allies to step up their efforts because they were doing most of the heavy fighting at this point. They also discussed the possibility of the Russians engaging in the Pacific to help the Americans fight the Japanese. During this meeting, they also discussed the possibility of a United Nations for the first time, which was an idea of Roosevelt. Finally, they also discussed what to do with Germany after the war and this is where the idea would be further developed to divide Germany into different parts Yalta Conference About the context of the Yalta Conference: The Yalta Conference will take place in February of 1945. At this point, the War in Europe is almost won, and most of Belgium, France, Poland, Bulgaria and Romania have already been liberated. The Germans had just launched their final assault in the Battle of the Bulge (dec 44 – jan 45). The Red Army had pushed back the Nazis in large parts of Eastern Europe and was getting closer to Berlin There was growing mistrust between the allies. The Soviet Union did not understand why there was a delay to open a second front in the West – they felt the invasion of Normandy should have come sooner. On the other hand, the USSR had not kept its promises regarding Poland and elections in liberated eastern Europe. But, the mutual interest in fighting and containing Germany prevailed, forcing them to continue to cooperate US: The Soviets had done most of the fighting and the US did not have many interests in Eastern Europe, and they had little leverage over the Soviet Union in this area, even though they were the most powerful of the three Allies. But would the United States allow Poland to be controlled by SU? This would put the US under pressure of their own public opinion. SU Three main goals: First, they wanted to divide the world into spheres of influence and this way increase their power and their security and consolidate the Soviet regime Second, they wanted to get back the territories that were lost from the Tsar era Finally, they absolutely wanted access to the Mediterranean (through the Black Sea) UK The UK had made (secret) deals with Stalin about dividing Eastern Europe (Greece, for example, would be under British influence and Bulgaria under Soviet influence). But these could not be maintained because of the Americans. The Yalta conference was all about balancing interests and principles. Yalta: Discussions and Outcomes With respect to Germany: There was a consensus to create four occupation zones in Germany, whereby France would also receive a zone. This was not yet a definitive solution for Germany: the question was whether it would remain a single state or not? The Soviets expected reparations to be extracted from Germany (mainly in the form of capital goods, such as machinery and raw materials). Germany would be demilitarized, denazified and turned into a democracy The UN organization was a project that Roosevelt had underwritten and for which he had secured congressional support. Roosevelt’s idea was that effective power would be held by a four-power Security Council – The US, SU, Britain and China (France was added subsequently): they would act as the world’s policemen to enforce their definition of peace on other nations.  Stalin insisted for each Permanent Member to have a veto right, meaning that one of the members could block any resolution. Roosevelt finally accepted. The Soviet Union was too big and too important to be left aside from this project. In the Far East, Stalin committed to entering the Pacific War three months after Germany’s surrender. In exchange, the Soviet Union would receive a number of (territorial) concessions Eastern Europe: it was agreed that the liberated European populations, including Eastern-Europeans, would hold free elections and create their own democratic institutions With respect to Poland, Stalin supported the (re-)creation of a strong and big Polish country, but he would not give back the parts the Soviet Union annexed in 1939. The lost territory would have to be recuperated in the West (by ceding German territory). Potsdam Conference The context compared to Yalta is very different: the War is over in Europe, but not yet in the Pacific. First, there had been an important change in leadership: Roosevelt died on 12 April 1945 and was replaced by his Vice-President (Harry Truman). Truman was more suspicious of Stalin, as he saw the actions in eastern Europe as a straight violation of the agreements of Yalta. De Gaulle was not invited at the request of the Americans. Churchill lost the elections in the UK during the conference and was replaced also during the conference by the leader of the victorious labour party, Clement Attlee. Churchil had been the one most distrustful of Stalin Second, since the last conference, the situation on the ground had also changed, as the Soviet Union was strengthening its grip on Eastern Europe: The Soviet Union was now occupying Eastern and Central Europe. They controlled the Baltic states, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania. They considered this their legitimate sphere of influence. If the US and UK wanted to discuss Poland and Romania, the Soviets wondered, why wouldn’t they also discuss Greece and Turkey who were under British influence? And so, the Allied powers had started to turn from cooperation to confrontation mode Third, while he was at the conference, Truman learned that a successful atomic bomb had been tested and informed Stalin of this new weapon. Some believe that the conference was delayed by Truman so he could make sure the bomb was tested. Having a nuclear weapon considerably increased the power of the US. In terms of decisions, the allied leaders had decided to create a special four-power occupation zone in Berlin. Germany needed to be a militarily weak and heavily controlled state. As for Japan, the allies sent a message to Japan threatening with total destruction. The end of the War Germany finally surrenders on 8 May 1945. By this time, Germany was completely destroyed, and so were major parts of Europe. Moreover, the discovery of the German extermination camps put a heavy stigma on Germany and the German population. Japan did not want to surrender, even when it no longer had any chance to be victorious. So, on 6 and 9 August 1945, the Americans dropped the first atomic bombs on Hiroshima and then on Nagasaki. Japan surrendered on 2 September 1945. The question many wonder; why use the atomic bomb? First, it was the quickest way to end the war without causing any American casualties and, without having to wait for the Soviet Union to help The Americans also wanted to display the power of their new weapon to the world. This way, it also sent a message to the Soviet Union not to become too greedy or aggressive in their territorial claims. Moreover, the Americans wanted to assess what this weapon was really capable of in real life conditions. The end of the War (II) The Second World War has caused an estimated number of deaths between 60-80 million people, including around 20 million military and 50 million civilians, The United States emerged from this conflict as the key global player, the most important and most powerful country There was only one challenger; the Soviet Union, who did not really come close to the US It was clear, once again, that Europe was not able to resolve its own problems; this was an entirely new reality for the European countries. The era of the Great empires was now really over. In terms of casualties, the Soviet Union suffered most, with about 25 million deaths, followed closely by China with 20 million, Poland and Germany each with estimated losses of 5 million and Japan with around 3 million