RAE (Relative Age Effect) Analysis - PDF

Why do we Group Children by Age? Developmentally appropriate education & instruction Shared social exchanges & experiences Fair competition Equal opportunity  Players drafted into NHL - expected distribution 300 250 200...

Why do we Group Children by Age? Developmentally appropriate education & instruction Shared social exchanges & experiences Fair competition Equal opportunity  Players drafted into NHL - expected distribution 300 250 200 150 Series1 100 50 0 Jan-Mar Apr-June July-Sep Oct-Dec  Players drafted into NHL - actual distribution 400 350 300 250 200 Series1 150 100 50 0 Jan-Mar Apr-June July-Sep Oct-Dec  NHL Birth Distribution (5- year period) 12 10 8 Percentage 6 4 2 0 y r y ch r il ay e ly t r e r be r be r ar ua a r A p M J un J u us be o b u g n r M u em ct vem cem J a F eb A p t O o e Se N D Month of Birth  NHL Birth Distribution (5- year period 35 30 Percentage 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 Quartile of Birth  Summary 2025 World Junior (Males) Canada  18 in 1st half and 6 in 2nd half USA  18 in 1st half and 7 in 2nd half Windsor Spitfires  21 in 1st half, 6 in January  3 in 2nd half (1 in last 5 month of the year) 2025 - U18 Worlds (Females) Canada  17 in 1st half, 5 in January, 7 in February  7 in 2nd half, latest birthday is October 7th USA  19 in 1st half, 6 in January  6 in 2nd half, 0 in December  The Relative Age Effect Relative Age Effects (RAEs) are developmental advantages experienced by those born in the initial month after a cut- off date compared to their younger counterparts (Barnsley et al., 1985).  The Relative Age Effect  The older one is relative to peers, the greater the probability of eventually becoming an elite athlete  So why do older kids have such an advantage? Variability in physical development  RAE (relative to age) & Maturation Height and weight advantages Maturation variability peaks at 13-15 years in boys and 12-14 years in girls More likely to be identified by coaches, parents as ‘talented’ Get picked for all-star teams, get better coaching  RAEs within Women’s Hockey Recent results are more equivocal and the trends are less clear There is typically a peak in the number of athletes born in Quartile 2 This may be a result of women’s hockey being younger and less developed Women’s hockey (10-year period)  Nationallevel players  U-22 development team  Women - Team 45 NT Percentage of Players 40 U-22 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sept Oct-Dec Birth Quartile Women - Team NT 70 Percentage of Players U-22 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Birth Quartile  Implications The evolution of women’s hockey in Canada has provided more opportunities for women and girls to play Women’s hockey accepted as an Olympic sport in 1992, and debuted as a full medal sport in Nagano in 1998 After 30 years of development, RAE profile is starting to look like the men 5 x more male players than females in Canada 1993-1994 –just under 8,000 females registered in ice hockey Today - approximately 100,000 registered females  Other Sports The RAE has been found to exist in many other countries (e.g., Australia, USA, U.K). Across many different (e.g., rugby, cricket, baseball)  RAE in Soccer Since 1997 Belgian Soccer Federation has used January 1st as cut-off date. Prior to, August 1st was the cut-off date. Youth born from August to October were more likely to be identified as ‘talented’ and to be exposed to higher levels of coaching Greater dropout rates among those relatively younger, starting as early as 12 years old (Helsen et al., 2000)  Soccer the Perfect Test Case Researchers could compare how the birth-date distribution changed for 1996-1997 compared to 1997- 1998 for elite youth players 1996-1997 cut-off date August 1st 1997-1998 cut-off date January 1st  10-11 Year old Soccer Players 1996-1997 1997-1998 36.8% were born 32.7% were born within 3 months of in first 3 months the competitive of the selection year (i.e., Jan, year (i.e., Aug, Feb, Mar) Sept, Oct) 18.3% in last 3 17.1% in the last 3 months of the months of the selection year selection year (i.e., (i.e., Oct, Nov, Dec) May, June, July)  16-18 Year old Soccer Players No difference in birth-date distributions after the change in reference date from August to January Why? Drop out Catch-up growth associated with adolescence Existing players already established and are better due to training  Reverse RAE In sports where it is advantageous to have a small physique often there is a reverse in the RAE E.g. gymnastics Biologically Size and/or more mature weight advantage Motivation to Increase practice and practice/play play more opportunities Positive self- Enhanced concept support from adults (i.e., coaches, parents)  RAEs in Education Relatively older students have been found to: 1. Attain higher scores in math, science and physical education courses 2. Be more likely chosen for ‘gifted’ or talented streams 3. Have higher school attendance rates 4. Are 4-11% more likely to possess a leadership role  RAEs in Education Relatively younger students have been found to: 1. Be more likely to be identified as needing learning support 2. Have lower attendance rates 3. Less likely to attend a post secondary institution 4. Have slightly higher rates of suicide than their older classmates  RAE & ADHD Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder One of the most commonly diagnosed behavioural disorders among children Prescriptions of psychostimulants to children diagnosed with ADHD rose by more than 700% in the last 20 years  Accurate Identification ADHD is an underlying neurological problem incidence rates should NO% change dramatically form one birth date to the next Research has found children born just before the age-of-start cut-off date are 50% to 60% more likely to be diagnosed with ADHD than those born just after. ‘Relatively older’ children less likely to be diagnosed with ADHD  ADHD – its subjective nature Some degree of subjectivity in ADHD diagnoses may be unavoidable: Primary symptoms, inattentiveness and hyperactivity, are apparent in nearly all children, especially those under the age of six Normal for all children to be inattentive, hyperactive, or impulsive sometimes, but for children with ADHD, these behaviours are server and occur more often  Study Conclusions  “Our estimates imply that roughly 20 percent of the 2.5 million children who use drugs (Ritalin) intended to treat ADHD have been misdiagnosed”  500,000 American children  50,00 Canadian children  ‘Redshirting’ Parents are _______________ __________________ from kindergarten in order to gain an academic and/or athletic advantage. However, this is a luxury that many parents cannot afford - costs associated with an additional year of childcare.  So What is the Solution? Should we all just plan the birth of our children early in the year relative to a ________________?  RAE  Final thoughts…………..  Coaches/Teachers – acting rationally  The system – set up to promote equal opportunity.  Evidence suggests……………..