Lecture 2: Systems Thinking & Analysis PDF

The Scientific Method & Critical Thinking Reporting your Findings 1. Problem Statement – State the reason for the study – What question is being asked and why? 2. State Hypothesis 3. Describe your study or experiment 4. Report the data or infor...

The Scientific Method & Critical Thinking Reporting your Findings 1. Problem Statement – State the reason for the study – What question is being asked and why? 2. State Hypothesis 3. Describe your study or experiment 4. Report the data or information 5. Summarize your analyses – Consider potential challenges & alternative interpretations 6. State your conclusions – Provide arguments supporting your conclusions – Review evidence both in favor AND against – If appropriate, provide arguments against opposing views Why do you disagree? Why don’t they work? 51  Systems Thinking A Different Way of Looking at Things… 52  Motivation: Why Systems Thinking? Suppose you are the head of an organization that is behind on its goal … What can you do? Target % Complete time 53  Motivation: Why Systems Thinking? You decide to add more people. What happens? % Complete Desired Result You Might Be Late Anyway! Why? time Current staff must train new staff, reducing productivity!! 54  Basic Definition Definition of a System: A regularly interacting or inter-dependent set of components forming a unified whole (the system) to serve a specific purpose. 55  Basic Definition Definition of a System: A regularly interacting or inter-dependent set of components forming a unified whole (the system) to serve a specific purpose. 56  Basic Definition Definition of a System: A Demonstration… 57  System Characteristics A system has the following characteristics Structure – Elements or components – Connections Interconnectivity – Inter-relationships among components Behavior – How the system operates Boundary – Limits – What is in and what is not Emergence – Collective behavior Impossible with any single component – “The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.” 58  Discussion: What is a System? List some examples. Automobile What does it do? Purpose Air conditioning system What are the Components? Structure Educational System How does it Operate? Behavior Name others … How are components Related? Interconnectivity 59  Discussion: Examples of Systems (and not!) Is a random group of items in a room a system? No! The items do have definite relationships But … There are No functional relationships There is No defined purpose Not every collection is a system. 60  System Boundaries and Environment Define the system 1. Boundaries – Physical limits or scope System 2. Environment Environment – Everything outside the System 61  Kinds of Systems Physical Conceptual Closed Open Static Dynamic Man-made Natural Think About Examples of Each 62  Discussion: Physical & Conceptual Systems Name some natural & man-made systems RNEP … – Is RNEP a natural or man-made system? – Interfaces with natural systems? – Interfaces with human systems? – Interfaces with other man-made systems 63  Discussion: Physical & Conceptual Systems Name some physical & conceptual systems RNEP … – What are some physical systems in an RNEP? – What are some conceptual systems in an RNEP? 64  Discussion: Physical & Conceptual Systems Name some closed & open systems RNEP … – Is RNEP an Open or Closed system? Explain – Can Open Systems be beneficial for an RNEP? Discuss 65  Discussion: Physical & Conceptual Systems Name some static & dynamic systems RNEP … – What are some static systems in an RNEP? – What are some dynamic systems in an RNEP? – How do they interact? 66  Kinds of Systems Physical Conceptual Closed Open Static Dynamic Man-made Natural 67  Systems Analysis Using Systems concepts to manage systems Systems Analysis 68  System Analysis (2) System Analysis Examines the Whole System Consider all functional relationships 1. Start with … System Objective(s) 2. Components … Support for System Objective(s) 3. Component interactions … Support for System Objective(s) 69  When to Use System Analysis? System Indicators … Multiple, inter-dependent factors System behavior Multiple perspectives about the situation Diverse opinions Contradictory inferences “The blind man and the elephant” Troublesome/Problematic Behaviors Endless oscillation; Previously applied fixes have created new problems Performance goals are declining Partners have become adversaries – competing interests Growth in one area leads to decline elsewhere 70  Recall: Analytic and Synthetic Thinking Examining Information or Data Analysis Breaking down the whole into parts or components. Synthesis Combining parts or components into a coherent whole. Analysis & Synthesis are complementary Synthesis provides an understanding of collective phenomena 71  Synthetic Thinking / Analysis RNEP … An Open & Dynamic System – Understand synergy among components Optimally performing components may not lead to an Optimally performing system What is missing? 72  Synthetic Thinking / Analysis Focusing on components may ignore system behaviors – Emergent behaviors System Objective – Define or Determine the Purpose – System Components Interrelationships – Desired output From input 73  System Objective and Effectiveness Effectiveness – measure how well the system performs Define … – System Objective or Purpose Ask … – Does the system achieve its objective? A system is NOT effective if it does NOT achieve its objectives 74  A Universal Model For Describing a System We can describe a system and its environment with the following elements Processes: A set of behaviors or processes that transform the inputs into the outputs Can be a combination of many RESOURCES interacting processes Interaction among processes results in feedbacks Input(s): Instructions to the system INPUT(s) Processes OUTPUT(s) Output(s): The effect of the system -- we want these to match the “objective(s)” of the system! ENVIRONMENT Resources: Materials or … used by the system but not consumed or transformed Environment: Natural or Human-Made Systems with which the system interacts 75  Example: Cooling System Resources Inputs: Processes: Outputs: Air Temperature Thermostat Control Cool Air Energy Condenser Environment: Room Air Thermal Mass Outside Temperature “Feedback” 76  Simple Component / Sub-system Feedbacks Sometimes called “mutual interaction” or “interrelationships” X Y Z Feedback: X Increasing affecting Ycomplexity and Y in turn affecting X X affecting Y affecting Z affecting Y affecting X 77  We may have a system of systems Policy Financial 78  Complex Component / Sub-system Feedbacks Interactions/Interplays System RESOURCES Feedbacks Feedbacks INPUTS PROCESSES OUTPUTS Feedbacks Feedbacks ENVIRONMENT 79  Feedback Loops Can Be Combined Simple balancing loop – our cooling system Show what the temperature looks like over time 80  System Archetypes Studying and understanding the feedback is crucial in system analysis System dynamics is a methodology for studying and managing systems 81  Another Perspective: Perspective Four Levels of Thinking Events Bottom-Up Patterns Synthesis Systemic Structures Mental Models 82  Another Perspective: Four Levels of Thinking Events Top-Down Analysis Patterns Systemic Structures Mental Models 83  System Analysis and System Solution We have the foundations on which we will build a system solution First … – We examine the problem – as a System Next … – We will develop a Solution – as a System Notice the role of critical thinking 84  System Analysis / Solution Approach Does a problem reflect a system? – Objective/Purpose – Emergent behaviors – Components & Structure Additional indicators – multiple perspectives about the situation How to deal with the situation – Problematic behaviors – Others? Imagine additional examples 85  System Analysis / Solution Approach Determine the system – Type – Objective(s) / Goals / Scope – Components and their attributes – Role of each component – Relationships among components – Feedbacks – Boundaries Environment Test your Hypothesis – Evaluate a solution – Scientific Method 86  System Approach to Problem Solving Define the System’s Purpose, Goals or Objectives Gather Information – Data Analyze the System Examine System Dynamics – Feedback Evaluate Risk & Consider Unintended Consequences Develop Plans to Mitigate Risk Develop Solutions – Consider multiple possibilities – Rank Solutions Make Recommendations – Decision Think Critically Throughout 87  Concluding Remarks System thinking is one of the most important analytical capabilities available to us Systems Analysis provides a holistic approach to deciding what we need or want – Achieving our goals within our resource constraints Decision Analysis and Risk Analysis are useful in that context When facing sequential decisions, consider future effects – Think forward, then back to the initial decision  KEEP IN MIND THE BIG PICTURE  88  System Analysis - Tools Many tools have been developed to help analyze system feedbacks and system optimizations. – Mathematical modeling & simulations – Sensitivity analysis 89  How can we apply a system approach and critical thinking skills to successfully managing a Responsible Nuclear Energy Program? Let’s begin by asking: Is an RNEP a System? We will examine this question 90  Is a RNEP a System? A system has a purpose (System Objective) What are some purposes of a RNEP? A system has a set of components or elements What are some components of a RNEP? System components have certain properties Interactions or Relationships with each other Inter-dependence Emergence Name some properties of a RNEP’s components 91  RNEP Goals Contribute to public life and prosperity Support the Economy Economical source of electricity Jobs & income Technologically advanced industry Can drive other economic sectors But also … Minimize risk to the public, environment and infrastructure Nuclear Safety & Security Assure other countries of peaceful intent International Safeguards Can you name other goals of a RNEP? 92  RNEP Elements International Context National Context Commerce National NE Program Global Commerce Facilities Finance International Processes Society Finance Policies Governance Environment Materials Environment International Organizations Safeguards Infrastructure People 93  Interactions, Interdependence, Emergence International Context National Context Commerce National NE Program Global Commerce Facilities Finance International Processes Society Finance Policies Governance Environment Materials Environment International Organizations Safeguards Infrastructure People How do these elements interact or relate to each other? What elements are interdependent? How? What properties emerge from interactions among the elements? – Not evident in isolation 94  Technical aspects of nuclear power generation International Context National Context Commerce National NE Program Global Commerce Facilities Finance International Processes Society Finance Policies Governance Environment Materials Environment International Organizations Safeguards Infrastructure People What are some of the technical aspects of nuclear power? How do technical aspects affect other components? – Policies? Organizations? People? – What about Commerce? Society? Infrastructure? Finance? – International obligations? Safeguards? 95  Policy aspects of a nuclear program International Context National Context Commerce National NE Program Global Commerce Facilities Finance International Processes Society Finance Policies Governance Environment Materials Environment International Organizations Safeguards Infrastructure People What are some of the policy aspects of nuclear power? How do they affect other components? – Organizations? People? – What about Commerce? Society? Infrastructure? Finance? – International Obligations? Safeguards? 96  Nuclear Safety International Context National Context Commerce National NE Program Global Commerce Facilities Finance International Processes Society Finance Policies Governance Environment Materials Environment International Organizations Safeguards Infrastructure People What about Safety? Does Safety have its own purpose or goals? – How do these relate back to a RNEP? Can Nuclear Safety be considered a system in its own right? 97  Nuclear Security International Context National Context Commerce National NE Program Global Commerce Facilities Finance International Processes Society Finance Policies Governance Environment Materials Environment International Organizations Safeguards Infrastructure People What about Security? Does Security have its own purpose or goals? – How do these relate back to a RNEP? Can Nuclear Security be considered a system in its own right? 98  International Safeguards International Context National Context Commerce National NE Program Global Commerce Facilities Finance International Processes Society Finance Policies Governance Environment Materials Environment International Organizations Safeguards Infrastructure People What about Safeguards? Do Safeguards have their own purpose or goals? – How do these relate back to a RNEP? Can Safeguards be considered a system in their own right? 99  The RNEP as a System These are also components of a RNEP Technical aspects Policy aspects Security Security Safety Technical Safety & Safeguards Policy These components also have relationships, interact with each other, influence each other, and can be interdependent Safeguards 100  The RNEP as a System What roles do people play? People with Technically Capable Critical Decision Makers Thinking Skills Policy Makers Security Managers Safety Technical & Policy People who understand these components & relationships Safeguards 101  An Integrated 3S Framework Safeguards Safety Security 102  Managing a RNEP & Decision-making Decisions require understanding the RNEP system System Approach – Purpose/Goals – Elements/Components RNEP & 3S – Relationships/Interactions Critical-Thinking Skills – Questioning Attitude Problem-Solving Skills – The Scientific Method 103  The Role of Culture People make decisions Culture influences people – Culture can affect peoples’ decisions What is “Culture”? – Example: Apple Corporate Culture 104  What is culture? Three Levels of Culture VISIBLE More Deeply Ingrained Artifacts & Architecture, Greeting Rituals, Behaviour Dress, Forms of Address ELUCTIBLE Espoused Values Strategies, Goals, Philosophies Basic Assumptions TACIT or UNCONCIOUS Human Nature, Underlying Beliefs IAEA TECDOC-1329, “Safety culture in nuclear installations, Guidance for use in the enhancement of safety culture.” 2002 105  What is culture? Three Levels of Culture VISIBLE Artifacts & Architecture, Greeting Rituals, Behaviour Dress, Forms of Address Things we may see, hear and feel, but may not know their reasons ELUCTIBLE Espoused Values Strategies, Goals, Philosophies Basic Assumptions TACIT or UNCONCIOUS Human Nature, Underlying Beliefs IAEA TECDOC-1329, “Safety culture in nuclear installations, Guidance for use in the enhancement of safety culture.” 2002 106  What is culture? Three Levels of Culture VISIBLE Artefacts & Architecture, Greeting Rituals, Behaviour Dress, Forms of Address Things we may see, hear and feel, but may not know their reasons ELUCTIBLE Espoused Values Strategies, Goals, Philosophies Adopted & supported by the individual & by organizations > potential inconsistencies Basic Assumptions TACIT or UNCONCIOUS Human Nature, Underlying Beliefs IAEA TECDOC-1329, “Safety culture in nuclear installations, Guidance for use in the enhancement of safety culture.” 2002 107  What is culture? Three Levels of Culture VISIBLE Most Deeply Ingrained Artefacts & Architecture, Greeting Rituals, Behaviour Dress, Forms of Address Things we may see, hear and feel, but may not know their reasons ELUCTIBLE Espoused Values Strategies, Goals, Philosophies Adopted & supported by the individual & by organizations > potential inconsistencies Basic Assumptions TACIT or UNCONCIOUS Human Nature, Underlying Beliefs Our most fundamental beliefs Internalized & consistent value system IAEA TECDOC-1329, “Safety culture in nuclear installations, Guidance for use in the enhancement of safety culture.” 2002 108  What is culture? Three Levels of Culture Artefacts & If we make a change at Behaviour one of these levels … Have we really effected a change in the culture? Espoused Values Basic Assumptions 109  What is culture? Three Levels of Culture Making a change Artefacts & in the individual’s Basic Assumptions Behaviourimpacts the culture at all levels. Individual values, beliefs, & assumptions Espoused Values Basic Assumptions 110  What is culture? Three Levels of Culture Making a change Artefacts & in the individual’s Basic Assumptions Behaviourimpacts the culture at all levels. Individual values, beliefs, & assumptions We can begin Espoused to make a positive impact on our Values Basic Assumptions through Critical Thinking Basic Assumptions 111  Important Note about Culture Social Culture Social Culture is a complex system of Interactions: – history, geography, economy, religion, ethical, and other aspects of society There no right or wrong Social Culture! 112  Important Note about Culture 1. We are discussing a “3S” Culture – Must harmoniously interact with the Social Culture – Compatible with internationally accepted best practices, norms, and guidelines 2. The objective examination of “3S Culture” is one attribute of a Responsible Nuclear Energy Program (RNEP) 113  Capstone Objective Culminating research on NUCE 304-relevant topics – Coordinated with local, regional and international stakeholders Practical research Topics – Nuclear energy, RNEP, 3S – Guidance from mentors – In class presentations 114  Capstone Schedule Weeks 8 – 11 Introductory Capstone Research – Develop presentation on project topic & research outline Guided & Independent Study – Capstone Research – Complete research paper and presentation for Symposium – Dry runs of Capstone presentations Starting thinking NOW… 115  Term Project (select one topic for your term project) Development of Recommendations for the Nuclear Security Culture in the UAE Evaluation of Safeguards and Security Options for the Dry Cask Storage in the UAE Survey of the Current Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Technologies & Assessing Safety Approaches of Existing Systems for Barakah Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) Development of Recommendations for the Nuclear Security Culture in the UAE Evaluation of Security and Safeguards Measures for the Transportation Security in the UAE Evaluation of Safeguards and Security Options for the Dry Cask Storage in the UAE Synergy between Safeguards and Security at an NPP An Initial Radiation Baseline Study of Urban Environment in Abu Dhabi Effective Enhancements for Integrated Safety and Security Control Systems in BNPP 116  Conclusion Capstone Project is: – an opportunity to do practical research – a chance to improve presentation/communication skills – a way to demonstrate increased knowledge & capability with NUCE 304 course material 117