Jan 2025 Public Forum Brief PDF

Champion Briefs January 2025 Public Forum Brief Resolved: The African Union should grant diplomatic recognition to the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state.  Copyright 2024 by Champion Briefs, LLC. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced...

Champion Briefs January 2025 Public Forum Brief Resolved: The African Union should grant diplomatic recognition to the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state.  Copyright 2024 by Champion Briefs, LLC. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by an information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner and the publisher. The Evidence Standard January 2025 The Evidence Standard Speech and Debate provides a meaningful and educational experience to all who are involved. We, as educators in the community, believe that it is our responsibility to provide resources that uphold the foundation of the Speech and Debate activity. Champion Briefs, its employees, managers, and associates take an oath to uphold the following Evidence Standard:. 1. We will never falsify facts, opinions, dissents, or any other information. 2. We will never knowingly distribute information that has been proven to be inaccurate, even if the source of the information is legitimate. 3. We will actively fight the dissemination of false information and will provide the community with clarity if we learn that a third-party has attempted to commit deception. 4. We will never knowingly support or distribute studies, news articles, or other materials that use inaccurate methodologies to reach a conclusion or prove a point. 5. We will provide meaningful clarification to any who question the legitimacy of information that we distribute. 6. We will actively contribute to students’ understanding of the world by using evidence from a multitude of perspectives and schools of thought. 7. We will, within our power, assist the community as a whole in its mission to achieve the goals and vision of this activity. These seven statements, while simple, represent the complex notion of what it means to advance students’ understanding of the world around them, as is the purpose of educators. Champion Briefs 5 Letter from the Editor January 2025 Letter from the Editor This debate topic offers an excellent opportunity for students to explore the complexities of statehood, self-determination, and regional stability in Africa. However, it also presents unique challenges that debaters must navigate carefully. While the topic is engaging and relevant, its nuances require significant research and understanding of international law, African geopolitics, and the historical context of Somaliland. One key challenge is the need to clarify what “diplomatic recognition” entails and its implications for Somaliland, the African Union, and other member states. Another consideration is the tension between the principle of self-determination and the African Union’s historical commitment to maintaining colonial-era borders. The debate topic implicitly requires students to address this balance, but understanding why the African Union prioritizes territorial integrity—especially in a continent with a history of colonial division—requires significant contextual knowledge. Without this foundation, debaters might struggle to engage deeply with the AU’s perspective and the broader consequences of recognizing Somaliland. Additionally, the resolution assumes that granting recognition is solely within the AU’s authority, but this overlooks other actors in the international system. Recognition is a multi- faceted process involving not only regional organizations like the AU but also the United Nations, individual states, and global powers. Ultimately, this topic challenges students to think critically about sovereignty, governance, and the role of regional organizations. To succeed, debaters must engage with both theoretical and practical aspects of recognition, equipping themselves with a deep understanding of Somaliland’s unique position and the African Union’s broader mission. Yair Fraifeld Editor-in-Chief Champion Briefs 6 Table of Contents January 2025 Table of Contents The Evidence Standard........................................................................ 5 Letter from the Editor......................................................................... 6 Table of Contents................................................................................ 7 Topic Analyses................................................................................... 10 Topic Analysis By Yair Fraifeld................................................................................................... 11 Topic Analysis By Rachel Mauchline......................................................................................... 16 Topic Analysis By Thadeus Smith.............................................................................................. 24 General Information.......................................................................... 30 Pro Arguments.................................................................................. 48 PRO: Somaliland has a more stable government than Somalia............................................... 49 PRO: African Union Recognition grants Somaliland international legitimacy.......................... 52 PRO: Recognition of Somaliland strengthens international legitimacy of Taiwan................... 55 PRO: African Union recognition of Somaliland is a prerequisite to United States recognition 59 PRO: Without recognition, Somaliland’s people lack an international advocate.................... 62 PRO: International recognition reduces Somaliland’s reliance on remittances....................... 65 PRO: International recognition strengthens the state of Somaliland’s democracy................. 68 PRO: Recognizing Somaliland could set a new precedent for Africa to deviate away from violence..................................................................................................................................... 72 PRO: Recognizing Somaliland encourages Jubaland to advocate for independence............... 79 PRO: Recognizing Somaliland prevents proxy warfare in the region....................................... 87 PRO: Subsequent recognitions of statehood provide Somaliland access to IMF and World Bank assistance......................................................................................................................... 93 PRO: Recognition of statehood would enable the development of strong ties to the U.S...... 99 PRO: Subsequent recognitions of statehood provide Somaliland access to international markets and global trade........................................................................................................ 105 PRO: Subsequent recognitions of statehood provide Somaliland access to military aid....... 110 PRO: Recognition of statehood enables counterterror support, undermining al-Shabaab... 113 Champion Briefs 7 Table of Contents January 2025 Pro Responses to Con Arguments.................................................... 116 A/2: Granting independence encourages other secessionist movements in Africa.............. 117 A/2: Somaliland will be economically taken advantage of by predatory lending.................. 121 A/2: Recognition causes backlash from the Somali government........................................... 125 A/2: Recognition would worsen the Somali Civil War............................................................ 129 A/2: Recognition is an extension of Colonialism.................................................................... 132 A/2: The African Union recognizing Somaliland is purely symbolic and not worth the risk of enhanced tensions.................................................................................................................. 135 A/2: Recognizing Somaliland could lead to violence between Egypt and Ethiopia............... 143 A/2: There are better alternatives for a peaceful future in Somaliland................................. 151 A/2: Recognizing Somaliland could lead to economic disaster in the country...................... 158 A/2: Recognizing Somaliland encourages other Somali provinces to split from Somalia...... 164 A/2: Recognizing Somaliland would divert the African Union’s resources and attention from more pressing issues............................................................................................................... 171 A/2: Recognizing Somaliland will alienate donors and development organizations that favor a unified Somali state................................................................................................................ 173 A/2: Recognizing Somaliland prematurely rewards the state without it first making progress on human rights and governance challenges......................................................................... 175 A/2: Recognizing Somaliland at this stage undermines the African Union’s status as a neutral arbiter in conflicts occurring within the continent................................................................. 177 A/2: Recognizing Somaliland harms the African Union’s relations with Somalia’s allies....... 179 Con Arguments............................................................................... 181 CON: Granting independence encourages other secessionist movements in Africa............. 182 CON: Somaliland will be economically taken advantage of by predatory lending................ 186 CON: Recognizing Somaliland causes backlash from the Somali government....................... 190 CON: Recognizing Somaliland would worsen the Somali Civil War........................................ 194 CON: Recognizing Somaliland reinforces colonial boundaries............................................... 198 CON: The African Union recognizing Somaliland is purely symbolic and not worth the risk of enhanced tensions.................................................................................................................. 201 CON: Recognizing Somaliland could lead to violence between Egypt and Ethiopia.............. 207 CON: There are better alternatives for a peaceful future in Somaliland............................... 214 CON: Recognizing Somaliland could lead to economic disaster in the country..................... 222 CON: Recognizing Somaliland encourages other Somali provinces to split from Somalia.... 228 CON: Recognizing Somaliland would divert the African Union’s resources and attention from more pressing issues............................................................................................................... 235 CON: Recognizing Somaliland will alienate donors and development organizations that favor a unified Somali state.............................................................................................................. 238 CON: Recognizing Somaliland prematurely rewards the state without it first making progress on human rights and governance challenges......................................................................... 242 Champion Briefs 8 Table of Contents January 2025 CON: Recognizing Somaliland at this stage undermines the African Union’s status as a neutral arbiter in conflicts occurring within the continent................................................................. 245 CON: Recognizing Somaliland harms the African Union’s relations with Somalia’s allies..... 248 Con Responses to Pro Responses.................................................... 251 A/2: Somaliland has a more stable government than Somalia.............................................. 252 A/2: African Union recognition grants Somaliland international legitimacy.......................... 255 A/2: Recognition of Somaliland strengthens international legitimacy of Taiwan.................. 258 A/2: African Union recognition of Somaliland is a prerequisite to U.S. recognition.............. 262 A/2: Without recognition, Somaliland’s people lack an international advocate................... 265 A/2: International recognition reduces Somaliland’s reliance on remittances...................... 268 A/2: International recognition strengthens the state of Somaliland’s democracy................ 271 A/2: Recognizing Somaliland could set a new precedent for Africa to deviate away from violence................................................................................................................................... 274 A/2: Recognizing Somaliland encourages Jubaland to advocate for independence.............. 280 A/2: Recognizing Somaliland prevents proxy warfare in the region...................................... 287 A/2: Subsequent recognitions of statehood provide Somaliland access to IMF and World Bank assistance................................................................................................................................ 294 A/2: Recognition of statehood would enable the development of strong ties to the U.S..... 299 A/2: Subsequent recognitions of statehood provide Somaliland access to international markets and global trade........................................................................................................ 306 A/2: Subsequent recognitions of statehood provide Somaliland access to military aid........ 310 A/2: Recognition of statehood enables counterterror support, undermining al-Shabaab.... 313 Champion Briefs 9 Champion Briefs January 2025 Public Forum Brief Topic Analyses Topic Analysis by Yair Fraifeld January 2025 Topic Analysis By Yair Fraifeld Resolved: The African Union should grant diplomatic recognition to the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state. Introduction The resolution, “Resolved: The African Union should grant diplomatic recognition to the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state,” dives into the heart of African geopolitics, identity, and self-determination. Somaliland, located in the Horn of Africa, declared independence from Somalia in 1991 following the collapse of Somalia’s central government. Since then, Somaliland has operated with its own government, constitution, and security forces. However, it remains unrecognized internationally, including by the African Union (AU). This debate topic challenges students to weigh the benefits and drawbacks of granting Somaliland official recognition as an independent state, balancing the principles of self-determination with concerns about regional stability and the precedent it might set for other separatist movements. Strategy Considerations When debating this resolution, it’s important to clarify key terms and focus on the implications of diplomatic recognition by the African Union. First, what is Somaliland? Understanding Somaliland’s history and its current status is critical. Somaliland was a British protectorate before joining Italian Somaliland to form Somalia in 1960. Its declaration of independence in 1991 was driven by years of conflict and marginalization under Somalia’s central government. Since then, Somaliland has built a Champion Briefs 11 Topic Analysis by Yair Fraifeld January 2025 functioning democracy with a stable economy and relative peace compared to the rest of Somalia. Highlighting these factors can bolster affirmative arguments. Second, what does diplomatic recognition mean? Diplomatic recognition is more than symbolic—it grants a state legitimacy on the international stage, allowing it to enter treaties, join international organizations, and access development funding. Affirmatives should frame recognition as a necessary step for Somaliland to thrive. Negatives, however, might argue that recognition is not a panacea and could exacerbate existing tensions. Third, what are some of the broader implications for the African Union? The AU has traditionally opposed recognizing secessionist movements to maintain the territorial integrity of African states. The legacy of colonial borders complicates this further, as recognizing Somaliland might encourage other separatist movements across the continent, like in Ethiopia’s Tigray or Nigeria’s Biafra region. Both sides should consider how this decision affects the AU’s principles and its role in African geopolitics. And finally, an emphasis on a focus on regional stability. The Horn of Africa is a volatile region plagued by terrorism, piracy, and economic instability. Affirmatives should argue that recognizing Somaliland could stabilize the region by encouraging development and cooperation. Negatives, however, might claim that recognition could destabilize Somalia and fuel further conflicts. Affirmative Arguments Champion Briefs 12 Topic Analysis by Yair Fraifeld January 2025 A common argument is that recognition validates Somaliland’s democratic achievements. Somaliland has demonstrated its ability to function as a sovereign state with democratic elections, peaceful transitions of power, and stable governance. Granting recognition would reward and encourage democratic values in a region where they are often lacking. Somaliland’s government has proven it can provide services to its citizens and maintain security, showing it deserves recognition as a legitimate state. Next, recognition could promote regional stability. Recognition of Somaliland could stabilize the Horn of Africa by creating a cooperative and peaceful state in a troubled region. Somaliland has maintained peace within its borders, which could serve as a model for other regions. Diplomatic recognition would allow Somaliland to join international organizations and receive development assistance, strengthening its economy and security infrastructure. It is also important to look at historical and legal justification. Somaliland has a strong historical case for independence. Before merging with Somalia, it was a separate British protectorate. Affirmatives can argue that Somaliland’s declaration of independence simply restores its previous sovereignty. Furthermore, international law recognizes the right of peoples to self-determination, and Somaliland meets the criteria for statehood under the Montevideo Convention (permanent population, defined territory, government, and the capacity to enter relations with other states). Finally, there may be humanitarian benefits. Recognition would allow Somaliland to access international aid and loans from institutions like the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This funding could improve infrastructure, healthcare, and education for Champion Briefs 13 Topic Analysis by Yair Fraifeld January 2025 its citizens. Without recognition, Somaliland remains ineligible for many of these opportunities, perpetuating poverty and underdevelopment. Negative Arguments A common negative argument is that recognition could set a destabilizing precedent for Africa. Recognizing Somaliland could set a dangerous precedent for secessionist movements across Africa. The AU has historically prioritized preserving colonial-era borders to prevent conflicts. If Somaliland gains recognition, it might embolden other separatist groups, leading to a wave of fragmentation and instability. This could worsen existing conflicts in regions like Ethiopia, Cameroon, or Nigeria. Next, there may be risks to Somalia’s fragile stability. Recognition could destabilize Somalia, a country already grappling with internal conflict and terrorism. Losing Somaliland would weaken Somalia’s economy, as Somaliland controls valuable ports and trade routes. It could also deepen divisions within Somalia, leading to more separatist movements or resentment from Somali leadership. There is also questionable viability for Somaliland as a state. While Somaliland has made progress, it still faces significant challenges, including high unemployment, reliance on remittances, and limited international trade. Recognition might not address these issues and could even create new pressures, such as heightened scrutiny or diplomatic conflicts. Negatives can argue that Somaliland should focus on building its economy and infrastructure before seeking recognition. Champion Briefs 14 Topic Analysis by Yair Fraifeld January 2025 Finally, recognition could undermine African unity. The AU was founded on the principle of promoting unity and cooperation among African states. Recognizing Somaliland might weaken this unity, as some member states could oppose the decision and withdraw support for the AU. Negatives might argue that maintaining continental solidarity is more important than granting recognition to a single entity. Conclusion The debate over whether the African Union should grant diplomatic recognition to Somaliland as an independent state revolves around questions of legitimacy, stability, and precedent. The affirmative side focuses on Somaliland’s achievements, its historical claim to independence, and the potential benefits of recognition for both Somaliland and the region. Meanwhile, the negative side raises concerns about destabilizing Africa, weakening Somalia, and undermining the AU’s principles of unity and territorial integrity. For high school debaters, this topic offers a rich field of argumentation, blending history, international law, and geopolitical strategy. Success in this debate will depend on understanding the complexities of Somaliland’s situation, framing the broader implications for Africa, and crafting persuasive narratives that weigh the risks and rewards of diplomatic recognition. About Yair Fraifeld Yair Fraifeld is a former competitor in Public Forum, where he competed at national tournaments for Trinity Preparatory School in Orlando, FL. Yair was invited to several round robins and the Tournament of Champions and ranked seventh at the NSDA National Tournament. Yair holds a Bachelor of Science in Entertainment Management from the University of Central Florida, and is the Executive Office Assistant at Destination DC, Washington D.C.’s official convention and visitors bureau. Champion Briefs 15 Topic Analysis by Rachel Mauchline January 2025 Topic Analysis By Rachel Mauchline Resolved: The African Union should grant diplomatic recognition to the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state. Introduction Welcome to the start of 2025! Hopefully, everyone will/did have a relaxing break from competition and preparation. While this topic analysis will focus on the specific intricacies of the January PF topic, it is important to consider the adjustment of topic release dates in the Spring compared to the Fall. As we delve into the structure of PF topics being monthly rather than bi-monthly, I encourage students to be aware of how their prep structure may change, as students will be focusing on two topics at the same time. As students begin to prepare for this topic in the month of January, students will also be aware of the February topic on January 1. Therefore, it is critical for teams/debaters to create strategies that allow them to develop still in-depth topic knowledge while not burning out due to time management concerns. Utilizing briefs and topic analysis, like this one, provides debaters a glance into the key stock arguments that will be seen on the topic to help shape their preparation work going forward. The primary question that I ask when examining a topic begins with a simple question: Why was this topic selected? With the emphasis on the majority of United States-specific topics over the last few years, this topic is a shift away from that. Honestly, I love this. This topic provides an opportunity for students to engage in literature that they may not have knowledge of prior to debating. Thus, again, the importance of learning about the topic is highlighted. But that doesn't answer the question as to why this topic is being debated. As a classroom Champion Briefs 16 Topic Analysis by Rachel Mauchline January 2025 educator, I believe it is vitally important that students learn more about the world around them and learn about topics possibly beyond the scope of what they learn in standard classroom curriculum. This is a topic that has become more of a conversation in the news. If you go into Google News and search Somaliland, articles continue to be published recently about their lack of recognition from the world. Considering that Somaliland has been attempting to be recognized internationally since the 1991 Somali Civil War, it's important to analyze why this topic is being debated now. This topic analysis addresses the overarching consideration that debaters need to keep in mind. The final component to introducing this topic analysis is that students need to invest time in developing an understanding of the real-world implications of such a geopolitically relevant topic. I'd encourage students to spend time understanding how the action of this resolution impacts the many parties involved. One of the best sources that I found in my preliminary research was from the Council of Foreign Relations. Beyond this brief, this article provides a clear overarching topic of knowledge of the history and the role Somaliland has on the international scope. I'd urge students to use this to help with their understanding of the topic. Topic knowledge is a vital component to be successful on a topic, especially when judges will possibly not have the topic knowledge that students will gather. Hopefully, this brief will assist in preparing for January, with many local and national tournaments on the calendar to start the year. Strategy Considerations Champion Briefs 17 Topic Analysis by Rachel Mauchline January 2025 With any topic, it is vital to examine the possible strategic considerations that will impact both sides of the topic. As this topic has a vast historical context, it is the most prevalent strategic consideration that will impact the stance of both teams. It's important that teams don't focus on giving a history lesson to the judge but instead use historical understanding to shape a current awareness and argument for the topic. I really don’t want this topic analysis to become a history lesson either, so I’ve created bullet points that shape the history of the topic – This is NOT a comprehensive list, but it gives a good starting point for understanding. - Somaliland was a former British protectorate – Separate from Italian Somaliland. - Somaliland gained independence on June 26, 1960, and unified with Italian Somaliland - Unification caused conflict based on the Somali Republic’s constitution from 1961 - Siad Barre served as a Dictator from 1969 to 1991 after a coup that fragmented Somalia further and led to economic harm and human rights violations. - Somaliland declared independence in 1991 after the civil war, and Barre being ousted - Somaliland had a referendum in 2001 that indicated that 97% of the people supported the call for independence - Somaliland fails to be recognized on the international level - Ethiopia–Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) occurred on January 1, 2024, highlighting the potential recognition of Somaliland as an independent state - Countries such as Somalia and Egypt condemn the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) - Presidential and Parliamentary Election occurred in Somaliland in November 2024 with the Waddani Party (the opposition for 14 years) defeating the Kulmiye Party. Champion Briefs 18 Topic Analysis by Rachel Mauchline January 2025 While this is a timeline of history, the most recent updates of the Memorandum of Understanding and the Presidential Election highlight the timeliness of the topic. First, the Memorandum of Understanding highlights a signal of change to the region. This MoU has a quid pro quo arrangement; Somaliland leases some of the Gulf of Aden coastline to Ethiopia, and in return, Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland as an independent state in the future. This dynamic of such an arrangement, especially being the first UN member to recognize Somaliland, did infuriate other actors such as Somalia and Egypt. Somalia’s constitution dictates Somaliland as a piece of Somalia and, therefore, can't legally recognize the agreement with Ethiopia. Egypt promptly stood behind Somalia with their statement quickly condemning and maintaining the stance that Somaliland is part of Somalia. This divide has continued to ripple. In fact, as I’m working on this topic analysis, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan met with both leaders of Somalia and Ethiopia separately to discuss trade and also to provide mediation to both countries. This again highlights how the topic will continue to unfold more based on updates throughout the month. This action occurred on December 11 – so I’d recommend debaters have some news alerts set up for over the holiday season. No, that doesn't mean doing debate work every day, but at least keeping an eye on the news that is occurring periodically. The other current update on this situation mentioned above was the Presidential and Parliamentary Election that occurred in Somaliland in November. This election was actually pushed back due to timelines and voter registration issues. However, this election highlights the importance of integrity and engagement. The opposition Waddani Party won with the Champion Briefs 19 Topic Analysis by Rachel Mauchline January 2025 candidate Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, and Somaliland had the first peaceful transition of power in history. It is also uniquely interesting to examine this through the lens of the United States presidential election. There are "several leading US Department of State officials who worked on Africa policy during Republican leader Donald Trump’s first term have publicly voiced support for recognizing Somaliland.” (Al Jazeera, November 2024) Therefore, it will be interesting to see how the topic may even have an updated analysis specifically after the inauguration on January 20. It would be curious for teams to examine if the United States recognizes Somaliland and what that means for other UN members. What would the backlash be from other countries? How would that influence credibility? As we approach the one-year mark of the MoU, along with the recent outcome of the presidential election, it is important to understand how those actions will influence the positioning of Somaliland on a regional and international scale. The Horn of Africa continues to become an area that is one to watch for analysts and individuals invested in the region. Teams on both sides should consider the legal, international, political, economic, and regional implications of affirming or negating the diplomatic recognition of the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state. There continues to be more literature that is posted that is timely and takes into account both sides of this controversial issue, and will certainly help shape arguments for both sides. Overall, the strategy of this debate on both sides needs to consider the ramifications of the action. Both sides need to answer the central question: Do the harms or the benefits outweigh the changes in how Somaliland will be recognized in the year 2024? This leads to the debate being viewed as a set of scales. It's critical that debaters are aware of how their position is Champion Briefs 20 Topic Analysis by Rachel Mauchline January 2025 established based on current events. The Economist published an article in November that was really helpful in understanding the timely nature of this debate. Hopefully, this provides some guidance in the strategy – without being too history-based. Affirmative Arguments With this topic, the affirmative is defending a change in the status quo that has been how Somaliland has been viewed since 1991. This is a natural uphill battle because individuals have a natural inclination to fear change. Therefore, the affirmative has a natural burden to respond to the concerns that individuals, countries, and the global community may have. There are a couple of different stock arguments that this topic analysis will highlight, but there are certainly many stances that the pro teams could take to defend the change. The overarching component of this debate will be focusing on the benefits of self-determination for Somaliland and the international community at large. Let’s isolate two key arguments that pro teams could make. First is the economic benefits that Somaliland could access for international recognition. Currently, due to the limitations in Somaliland's recognition, they are limited in the economic markets and institutions that they can engage with. This, in turn, limited the ability Somaliland had in specific trade, even with its prime geographic position to be a hub for maritime trade. Allowing Somaliland to be recognized as an independent state would garner economic benefits not only for Somaliland but also for the surrounding regional economies that could use such a port for their own increased trade relationships. This stability can also impact the global economy, which will be a strong impact magnifier for teams. Champion Briefs 21 Topic Analysis by Rachel Mauchline January 2025 Second is the partnership that can be formed with Somaliland and other regional countries to tackle security threats and other factors that cause instability. The Horn of Africa is on the brink of a security risk, with tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia rising due to the MoU. If the African Union recognized the Republic of Somaliland, what would that mean for these tensions? There is also the potential that Somaliland could partner with other countries to tackle security threats such as terrorism in the region. Somaliland doesn't have credibility in the status quo as they aren't recognized on a diplomatic level to engage. There are many impacts that teams could read with this argument logic, but it's important to prove specifically why the recognition is key to security alliance partnerships and the long-term stability of the Horn of Africa. Negative Arguments The negative aspect of this topic has history inherently on its side, as from 1991 to the present day, there has been a negation stance on Somaliland - not being an internationally recognized nation. Therefore, there are some compelling arguments for why change should not occur. Let’s focus on two specific arguments that I could see being common on this topic. The first of those in the precedent set with such an action. By recognizing Somaliland as an independent state, it sets a precedent that other countries could follow. In turn, such an action could uniquely hurt the sovereignty of Somalia while also setting a standard that such a call for independence could lead to successionist movements. There are already worries from the African Union directly that "fears the creation of yet another nexus of instability in the Horn of Africa, or the setting of a precedent for a secessionist movement” (GIS Report, 2024) Champion Briefs 22 Topic Analysis by Rachel Mauchline January 2025 Therefore, this potential instability could impact beyond the scope of the original intention and spark other movements that could have unintended negative consequences. The second con argument to focus on is the meaning of the African Union recognition. This is more of a defensively based argument, but it is based on the question of what AU recognition means. Often, the United Nations is the organization that guides others in making such decisions. The choice of the African Union as the actor in the resolution was interesting. Con teams could certainly make the defensive argument that even if the AU recognizes, that doesn't mean that members of the UN will fall in line with that interpretation. There is probably a compelling argument about the possible fracturing that will magnify a lack of agreement on this issue. This argument highlights the lack of a clear line on how to determine if Somaliland meets the criteria for recognition as an independent state. The impacts of this argument beyond fracturing are also just general rifts between countries – as is already being highlighted between Ethiopia and Somalia. I hope this topic analysis is helpful and has provided a brief preview of the argumentation/considerations to keep in mind in January. Wishing you the best start to 2025 in debate ☺ Good luck! Champion Briefs 23 Topic Analysis by Thadeus Smith January 2025 Topic Analysis By Thadeus Smith Resolved: The African Union should grant diplomatic recognition to the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state. Introduction It's a bit rare for PF topics to have a mandate – Oftentimes, the vote is highly close, with the difference between the two choices being just a couple of percentage points. Sometimes, the student vote is decisive, but those voices are overruled by the value of the coach vote. This topic, however, was selected decisively – 67% of the coach vote and 62% of the student vote. This does not mean much for what you do in round, but it is something interesting to note before we dive into the analysis. This topic is part of the NSDA’s efforts to broaden the scope of Public Forum Debate, which often has a focus on domestic topics. The topic this month is highly relevant, with the incoming Trump administration already discussing potential recognition, but teams should be careful to remember that the topic is not about the United States extending recognition – Instead, we’re focusing on whether or not the African Union should extend recognition to the Republic of Somaliland. That distinction is small but crucial because it means most cases will need to focus on intra-Africa impacts rather than possible benefits to the United States (or at least will have to do more work to connect topics to the United States. The nice thing about a topic that is so timely is the wide range of literature available on the topic. The first thing I recommend teams do is find what I refer to as a "seminal article" – An article that provides a wide range of background on the topic. There are several options Champion Briefs 24 Topic Analysis by Thadeus Smith January 2025 available to teams on this front – The Council on Foreign Relations, the Heritage Foundation, and the Center for Justice and Accountability all have good overviews. Interestingly, there is a lot of agreement between think tanks on both sides of the political spectrum. You will be hard- pressed to find scholars who refuse to see any benefits in granting Somaliland international recognition. This implies a lack of Negative ground, but as you will see later in this analysis, I do not think this is the case. As always, this analysis will begin by focusing on strategic considerations with the topic before moving on to discuss affirmative and negative arguments. You should use this analysis, along with the arguments in the brief itself, to guide your case development. Strategy Considerations The history of Somaliland has a deeply complicated colonial history that is, unfortunately for lay rounds, somewhat important for teams to explain for arguments to make sense. Brittanica has an excellent overview of the history, but the relevant parts for your cases start in the 19th century. The area that Somaliland occupies was claimed by three different colonial powers – Italy, Britain, and France. These different zones modified borders over time, with the Italian and British areas combining in 1960 to become the “Republic of Somali” and the French area becoming the independent nation of Djibouti in 1977. Throughout the 1980s, Somalia faced authoritarian rule until the 1991 civil war, which resulted in the area of Somaliland declaring independence. That independence was widely supported by residents of Somaliland, which has quickly become a democratic area – Since 2003, the country has held Champion Briefs 25 Topic Analysis by Thadeus Smith January 2025 elections and had peaceful transitions of power. Despite that, they have never been recognized internationally. In the past year, Somaliland has made greater strides towards recognition, signing a Memorandum of Understanding with Ethiopia to allow the country to open a port in Somaliland in exchange for recognition. This was fiercely opposed by Somalia, which still views Somaliland as part of itself (similarly to how China views Taiwan). In December 2024, Somalia and Ethiopia came to an agreement to allow the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal to move forward, with Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland becoming official. It is likely that more news breaks over the next month, so teams should monitor the news here. Past these historical discussions, teams need to consider ways to incorporate domestic interests into this debate naturally. I think a very common mistake on this topic will be inadvertently writing about the benefits of American recognition without clearly linking African Union recognition to the United States – We’ll discuss this in more detail in the next section. Affirmative Arguments I think that the Affirmative in this debate will focus on a few stock arguments: First, economic considerations; second, institutional democracy benefits; and third, military benefits. Let’s start with the economic benefits. Right now, Somaliland is ineligible from participating in what I would describe as the “international system” – This includes trade agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area and also includes international lenders like the IMF and the World Bank. As a result of that lack of access, Somaliland’s economy is highly limited, and the government is incredibly reliant on remittances to fund basic services when Somaliland gets Champion Briefs 26 Topic Analysis by Thadeus Smith January 2025 international recognition; however, that changes because they can quickly increase government funding and will have a greater ability to import goods. The second stock argument here has to do with the benefits of institutional democracy. While Somaliland has maintained a functioning democracy for twenty years, that has very much beaten the odds given their situation, and they've been forced to delay elections in the past – For example, the 2022 election was postponed until 2024 because the government could not afford to run it. When countries enter the international system and get access to institutional lenders, those loans often come with conditions that require democratic reforms. In addition, being treated as equals in international systems provides an incentive for Somaliland's government to remain functioning, as once they are recognized, they will not want to lose that recognition. The last stock argument I think will come up on the Affirmative has to do with possible military benefits. Here, I want to shift gears and talk about the United States. The State Department has said that the United States will not be recognizing Somaliland until after it receives African Union recognition. This recognition could not come at a better time, however, because the United States maintains an extremely important drone base in the neighboring country of Djibouti. Over the last several years, however, Djibouti has grown closer to China, and there are intelligence concerns that may prompt the United States to seek other partnerships to combat terrorism in the region. Somaliland could very well fill that gap, with insiders in the incoming administration stating as much in interviews. Champion Briefs 27 Topic Analysis by Thadeus Smith January 2025 Negative Arguments On the negative, I again think there are three main stock arguments. The first has to do with institutional lending, the second has to do with secession groups, and the last has to do with colonialism. Let’s start with institutional lending. The main reason Somaliland does not receive significant IMF or World Bank loans in the status quo is because they do not have international recognition. When that changes, it’s likely that their government will apply for significant loans in order to ramp up government services and the economy. IMF loans come with conditions that tend to require advanced austerity measures – Those measures lead to extraordinarily negative impacts on regular citizens because they tend to cut human services and welfare programs, potentially plunging the country even further into poverty. The second argument has to do with secession groups. A key reason why Somaliland has not been recognized in the squo is fears that recognizing one secession group in Africa will embolden other groups who feel they deserve the same treatment. Teams will have a wide range of impact scenarios to draw from here – There are hundreds of active rebel groups across Africa that could be emboldened by Somaliland receiving recognition. In the Horn of Africa alone, those groups have caused incredible amounts of damage and civilian casualties in recent years. The last stock argument I see on the negative has to do with colonialism. Somaliland justifies its bid for recognition by saying that it is returning to colonial-era boundaries. Indeed, Somaliland’s boundaries are based on an 1887 treaty between Britain and Ethiopia. While this can be used to justify their bid to connect to prior African Union precedent, teams on Champion Briefs 28 Topic Analysis by Thadeus Smith January 2025 progressive circuits have the potential to link into colonialism frameworks and have an interesting philosophical discussion. As always, I hope this topic analysis is helpful in some way – Make sure you use the evidence in this brief but don't rely on it. Do your own research, fill in the gaps, and have some good debates! About Thadeus Smith Thadeus is a speech & debate teacher at the American Heritage School in Plantation, FL, where he has coached state and national champions in multiple events. He holds an MA in Theory & Practice of Human Rights from the University of Essex, where he competed internationally in British Parliamentary Debate. He competed in a variety of events for Kingston High School in Washington and placed tenth in World Schools Debate at NSDA Nationals in 2019. Champion Briefs 29 Champion Briefs January 2025 Public Forum Brief General Information General Information January 2025 General Information Resolved: The African Union should grant diplomatic recognition to the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state. Foreword: We at Champion Briefs feel that having deep knowledge about a topic is just as valuable as formulating the right arguments. Having general background knowledge about the topic area helps debaters form more coherent arguments from their breadth of knowledge. As such, we have compiled general information on the key concepts and general areas that we feel will best suit you for in- and out-of-round use. Any strong strategy or argument must be built from a strong foundation of information; we hope that you will utilize this section to help build that foundation. Champion Briefs 31 General Information January 2025 The African Union (AU): The African Union is a continental organization consisting of 55 member states that promotes unity, peace, and development in Africa. It was established in 2001, succeeding the Organization of African Unity (OAU). One of its foundational principles is respect for the borders inherited from colonial powers to avoid secessionist conflicts. Its involvement in this resolution would involve granting diplomatic recognition to Somaliland, a move that could have significant implications for its stance on African unity and territorial integrity. The African Union’s history and goals according to the African Union The African Union (AU) is a continental body consisting of the 55 member states that make up the countries of the African Continent. It was officially launched in 2002 as a successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU, 1963-1999). History: In May 1963, 32 Heads of independent African States met in Addis Ababa Ethiopia to sign the Charter creating Africa’s first post-independence continental institution, The Organisation of African Unity (OAU). The OAU was the manifestation of the pan-African vision for an Africa that was united, free and in control of its own destiny and this was solemnised in the OAU Charter in which the founding fathers recognised that freedom, equality, justice and dignity were essential objectives for the achievement of the legitimate aspirations of the African peoples and that there was a need to promote understanding among Africa’s peoples and foster cooperation among African states in response to the aspirations of Africans for brother-hood and solidarity, in a larger unity transcending ethnic and national Differences. The Champion Briefs 32 General Information January 2025 guiding philosophy was that of Pan-Africanism which centred on African socialism and promoted African unity, the communal characteristic and practices of African communities, and a drive to embrace Africa’s culture and common heritage. The main objectives of the OAU were to rid the continent of the remaining vestiges of colonisation and apartheid; to promote unity and solidarity amongst African States; to coordinate and intensify cooperation for development; to safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Member States and to promote international cooperation. The OAU Charter spelled out the purpose of the Organisation namely: To promote the unity and solidarity of the African States; To coordinate and intensify their cooperation and efforts to achieve a better life for the peoples of Africa; To defend their sovereignty, their territorial integrity and independence; To eradicate all forms of colonialism from Africa; and To promote international cooperation, having due regard to the Charter of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Through the OAU Coordinating Committee for the Liberation of Africa, the Continent worked and spoke as one with undivided determination in forging an international consensus in support of the liberation struggle and the fight against apartheid. The OAU had provided an effective forum that enabled all Member States to adopt coordinated positions on matters of common concern to the continent in international fora and defend the interests of Africa effectively. Champion Briefs 33 General Information January 2025 On 9.9.1999, the Heads of State and Government of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) issued the Sirte Declaration calling for the establishment of an African Union, with a view, to accelerating the process of integration in the continent to enable Africa to play its rightful role in the global economy while addressing multifaceted social, economic and political problems compounded as they were by certain negative aspects of globalisation. The launch of the African Union: The African Union (AU) was officially launched in July 2002 in Durban, South Africa, following a decision in September 1999 by its predecessor, the OAU to create a new continental organisation to build on its work. The decision to re-launch Africa’s pan-African organisation was the outcome of a consensus by African leaders that in order to realise Africa’s potential, there was a need to refocus attention from the fight for decolonisation and ridding the continent of apartheid, which had been the focus of the OAU, towards increased cooperation and integration of African states to drive Africa’s growth and economic development. The AU is guided by its vision of “An Integrated, Prosperous and Peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the global arena.” The Constitutive Act of the African Union and the Protocol on Amendments to the Constitutive Act of the African Union lay out the aims of the AU which are: Achieve greater unity and solidarity between African countries and their the people Defend the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of its Member States; Accelerate the political and socio-economic integration of the continent; Promote and defend African common positions on issues of interest to the continent and its peoples; Champion Briefs 34 General Information January 2025 Encourage international cooperation Promote peace, security, and stability on the continent; Promote democratic principles and institutions, popular participation and good governance; Promote and protect human and peoples’ rights in accordance with the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights and other relevant human rights instruments; Establish the necessary conditions which enable the continent to play its rightful role in the global economy and in international negotiations; Promote sustainable development at the economic, social and cultural levels as well as the integration of African economies; Promote cooperation in all fields of human activity to raise the living standards of African peoples; Coordinate and harmonise the policies between the existing and future Regional Economic Communities for the gradual attainment of the objectives of the Union; Advance the development of the continent by promoting research in all fields, in particular in science and technology Work with relevant international partners in the eradication of preventable diseases and the promotion of good health on the continent. Ensure the effective participation of women in decision-making, particularly in the political, economic and socio-cultural areas; Develop and promote common policies on trade, defence and foreign relations to ensure the defence of the Continent and the strengthening of its negotiating positions; Champion Briefs 35 General Information January 2025 Invite and encourage the full participation of the African Diaspora as an important part of our Continent, in the building of the African Union. The work of the AU is implemented through several principal decision making organs:- The Assembly of Heads of State and Government, the Executive Council, the Permanent Representatives Committee (PRC), Specialised Technical Committees (STCs), the Peace and Security Council and The African Union Commission. The AU structure promotes participation of African citizens and civil society through the Pan-African Parliament and the Economic, Social & Cultural Council (ECOSOCC). Organs that handle judicial and legal matters as well as human rights issues include:- African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights (ACHPR), African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights(AfCHPR), AU Commission on International Law (AUCIL), AU Advisory Board on Corruption (AUABC) and the African Committee of Experts on the Rights and Welfare of the Child. The AU is also working towards the establishment of continental financial institutions (The African Central Bank, The African Investment Bank and the African Monetary Fund) The Regional Economic Communities (RECs) and the African Peer Review Mechanism are also key bodies that that constitute the structure of the African Union. To ensure the realisation of its objectives and the attainment of the Pan African Vision of an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, Agenda 2063 was developed as a strategic framework for Africa’s long term socio-economic and integrative transformation. Agenda 2063 calls for greater collaboration and support for African led initiatives to ensure the achievement of the aspirations of African people. Champion Briefs 36 General Information January 2025 Grant Diplomatic Recognition: Diplomatic recognition involves acknowledging a political entity as a sovereign state with the ability to engage in international relations. This includes establishing formal ties, opening embassies, and recognizing the entity’s government. For Somaliland, this recognition would mean becoming eligible for international support, joining global organizations, and gaining legitimacy on the international stage. Champion Briefs 37 General Information January 2025 The Republic of Somaliland: Somaliland is a self-declared republic in the northern part of Somalia. It declared independence in 1991 after the collapse of Somalia’s central government but remains unrecognized by any country or international organization, including the AU. Despite its lack of recognition, Somaliland has operated as a de facto independent state with its own government, currency, and military. It has also maintained relative peace and stability compared to the rest of Somalia. What is its political status? Somaliland broke ties with Somalia’s government in Mogadishu after declaring independence in 1991, and has sought international recognition as an independent state since then. No foreign government recognizes its sovereignty, but many effectively acknowledge the region as separate from Somalia. It has held its own democratic elections since 2003, and in 2010 it saw a largely peaceful transfer of power to the opposition Peace, Unity, and Development Party. The United States, France, the United Kingdom, and the European Union (EU) sent delegations to observe Somaliland’s 2017 presidential election. Somaliland postponed its 2022 election and extended President Muse Bihi Abdi’s term by two years, citing financial constraints; its next vote is currently set for November 13, 2024. How did it get here? Somaliland’s history as a distinct region of Somalia dates back to the late nineteenth century. The territory was a British protectorate until 1960, when it unified with the rest of Champion Briefs 38 General Information January 2025 present-day Somalia, which had been under Italian rule. The merger faced challenges early on, with many in Somaliland rejecting the centralization of power in the country’s south. A rebel group, the Somali National Movement (SNM), emerged in Somaliland in the 1980s opposing the military junta of President Siad Barre, which seized power in 1969. In January 1991, SNM and other insurgent groups ousted Barre, whose forces had killed tens of thousands of Somalilanders and destroyed much of the region’s infrastructure. SNM refused to recognize an interim government led by another militia group, and in May it declared Somaliland’s independence, with the city of Hargeisa as its capital. Delegates took a decade to thrash out a new constitution for Somaliland, which voters overwhelmingly approved in 2001. The referendum saw a transition from a power-sharing agreement among leading clans to a multiparty democracy. Although some international observers applauded the peaceful vote, no government recognized the process. What is Somaliland’s case for independence? The Somaliland government asserts that it meets most of the requirements of a sovereign democratic state: it holds free and fair elections, has its own currency and security forces, and issues its own passports. It also says that its independence claim is consistent with a longstanding norm of the African Union and its predecessor that colonial-era borders should be maintained. Some analysts also note that Somalilanders are predominantly from the Isaaq clan, and thus ethnically distinctive from other Somalis. The territory has widely been seen as an “oasis” for stability in a turbulent region. “From the Somalilanders’ perspective, they have a completely reasonable argument,” Bronwyn Bruton, democracy and governance expert, said in 2018. “Somaliland is trying to break off from Champion Briefs 39 General Information January 2025 Somalia, which hasn’t been a functioning country in decades.” Democracy and civil liberties watchdog Freedom House rates Somaliland’s freedom index at “partly free,” scoring a forty- four out of one hundred in 2023, while Somalia got only eight in the same year—an unequivocally “not free” status, and the fourteenth-lowest worldwide However, Somaliland’s score has declined in recent years following crackdowns on opposition protestors when its parliament postponed the 2022 presidential election. What is its financial situation? A weak economy and limited opportunities for foreign trade and investment have stifled the government’s capacity to provide services to its approximately four million residents. Somaliland has a gross domestic product (GDP) of about $2 billion, most of which it receives in remittances from Somalilanders working abroad. The area’s unemployment remains very high, particularly for youth, and officials worry about a potential “brain drain” phenomenon, with educated people migrating in search of opportunities elsewhere. Its main exports are livestock and animal products, which it ships to neighboring Djibouti and Ethiopia, as well as to Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia and Oman. Its GDP per capita, in the hundreds of dollars, is one of the lowest in the world. If it were to gain independence, Somaliland would become the eighteenth-poorest country[PDF] today. Somalia, meanwhile, is the world’s fifth-poorest. Meanwhile, the government is ineligible for loans from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund as long as Somaliland is not an internationally recognized state or reconciled with Somalia. President Muse Bihi Abdi, in an op-ed after his 2017 election victory, said that Somaliland’s exclusion from international markets “compounds the socioeconomic Champion Briefs 40 General Information January 2025 pressures that Somaliland faces,” and analysts say that an anemic economy puts decades of political progress at risk. Somaliland has nonetheless negotiated its own foreign investment deals despite opposition from the federal government in Mogadishu. In 2016, it struck a landmark deal with DP World of Dubai, part of the UAE, to develop and manage the Port of Berbera, a joint venture expected to produce millions of dollars of income a year for Somaliland. Landlocked Ethiopia joined the port development project two years later, aiming to expand its access to the sea. In January 2024, Somaliland sparked another diplomatic row with Somalia when it agreed to lease Ethiopia rights to twelve kilometers (twenty miles) of coastline and access to Berbera for commercial and military purposes for fifty years in exchange for its formal recognition and part ownership of Ethiopia Airlines, the national carrier. Where do negotiations between Somalia and Somaliland stand? Mogadishu continues to reject Somaliland’s call for independence and strongly condemns its unilateral attempts to negotiate major international agreements. However, Somaliland remains steadfast in its ambitions. In December 2023, Somalia announced that the country was ready to reopen talks with Somaliland to resolve their disputes, under mediation by neighboring Djibouti. The following week, Somaliland struck its provisional deal with Ethiopia on the port of Berbera. The agreement prompted swift backlash from Somalia, which called it an illegal act of “aggression” and recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia. In the aftermath of this dispute, the timeline for resuming Somaliland-Somalia talks remains unclear, but they are likely to be delayed indefinitely, experts say. Champion Briefs 41 General Information January 2025 Is there international support for Somaliland’s independence? Many countries have encouraged the breakaway state’s elections and economic development, but none have recognized Somaliland. While some experts see historical and geopolitical reasons for countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya to take this step, others say the African Union (AU) would have to be the first to do so. “The United States and the UN and all of their allies have worked hard to try to build up the AU and position it as a moral authority,” says Bruton. The bloc, however, has feared that formal recognition would embolden other secessionist movements on the continent, such as Nigeria’s Biafra or Morocco’s Western Sahara, to demand the same. Since the creation of a continental bloc in 1963, there have only been two widely recognized border changes in Africa: Eritrea’s split from Ethiopia in 1993 and South Sudan’s independence in 2011. In the fallout of Somaliland’s January 2024 tentative port deal with Ethiopia, several countries and blocs such as the United States, Egypt, AU, and EU called for calm in the region and for Somalia’s sovereignty to be respected. What is Somaliland’s strategic importance? Somaliland is positioned along the Gulf of Aden near the entrance to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a major sea-lane through which almost one-third of the world’s shipping passes. Its coastline has made it and neighboring Eritrea and Djibouti attractive partners for foreign governments looking for sea access and a maritime presence in the region. Djibouti has become a hub for foreign military bases; China, France, Italy, Japan, and the United States all have Champion Briefs 42 General Information January 2025 facilities in the country. Major foreign powers, including China, Russia, and the UAE, have also increasingly courted Eritrea. However, Somaliland will likely continue to struggle to build these types of relationships without broad international recognition or a compromise with Somalia, as illustrated by its controversial port investment deals. Diplomacy is also likely to be complicated by Somalia’s ongoing battle against the al-ShabaabIslamist insurgent group, as well as deteriorating security and stability in the broader Horn of Africa region. The U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa said that the deal has been weaponized by al-Shabaab to generate new recruits to undermine regional security. Countries such as nearby Sudan and Ethiopia are also suffering internal conflicts with spillover effects, and the region is hammered with climate disasters, including historic droughts and torrential floods that drive severe hunger. Experts are also concerned that the pending Berbera port deal will escalate the controversy between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River. More recently, amid war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas, Iran-backed rebels in Yemen have launched strikes on shipping in the Red Sea, adding another layer of volatility to the region. Champion Briefs 43 General Information January 2025 Independent State: An independent state is one that exercises full sovereignty over its territory and is recognized as such under international law. Recognition is crucial for a state to join organizations like the United Nations and access international aid and resources. Somaliland argues that it fulfills the criteria for statehood under the Montevideo Convention, including having a defined territory, permanent population, government, and the capacity to enter relations with other states. Champion Briefs 44 General Information January 2025 Historical Context Somaliland’s Colonial History: Somaliland was a British protectorate from 1884 until 1960, when it gained independence. However, just days after its independence, it united with the Italian- administered Trust Territory of Somalia to form the Somali Republic. This union was fraught with tension, as Somalilanders felt marginalized by the southern-dominated government in Mogadishu. The Collapse of Somalia and Somaliland’s Independence Declaration: In 1991, after years of civil war and the collapse of Somalia’s central government, Somaliland declared independence. This was a response to decades of political and economic marginalization and widespread violence under Somali dictator Siad Barre. Since then, Somaliland has functioned as an independent entity, conducting democratic elections and maintaining internal stability. Challenges to Recognition: Despite Somaliland’s achievements, the African Union and the international community have not recognized its independence. This is partly due to the AU’s commitment to preserving colonial borders to avoid setting a precedent for other separatist movements. Many African countries fear that recognizing Somaliland could encourage other regions, like Ethiopia’s Tigray or Nigeria’s Biafra, to push for independence, leading to further fragmentation and conflict. Champion Briefs 45 General Information January 2025 Somalia’s Opposition: Somalia opposes Somaliland’s independence and views it as part of its sovereign territory. Recognizing Somaliland could destabilize Somalia further, weakening its economy and political stability. Somalia has argued that efforts should be focused on reunification and reconciliation rather than secession. Champion Briefs 46 General Information January 2025 Works Cited “Background on Somaliland.” Center for Justice and Accountability, https://cja.org/where-we- work/somalia/related-resources/background-on-somaliland/. Laessing, Ulf. “Somaliland: The Horn of Africa’s Breakaway State.” Council on Foreign Relations, 22 Sept. 2022, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/somaliland-horn-africas-breakaway- state. “Somaliland: Report on the De Facto Independent State.” Folketinget (Danish Parliament), https://www.ft.dk/samling/20161/almdel/URU/bilag/265/1786944.pdf. Scharf, Joshua L. “A Shadow on Tomorrow’s Dreams: Somaliland’s Struggle for International Recognition.” Lewis & Clark Law Review, https://law.lclark.edu/live/files/24272-a- shadow-on-tomorrows-dreams-somalilands-struggle. Villa, Filippo. “Somaliland: 30 Years of De Facto Statehood and No End in Sight.” ISPI (Italian Institute for International Political Studies), 6 May 2021, https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/somaliland-30-years-de-facto- statehood-and-no-end-sight-30363. Champion Briefs 47 Champion Briefs January 2025 Public Forum Brief Pro Arguments Pro Arguments January 2025 PRO: Somaliland has a more stable government than Somalia. Argument: Somaliland has a more stable government than Somalia Warrant: Somaliland has held elections since 2003 Ferragamo, Mariel and Claire Klobucista. “Somaliland: The Horn of Africa’s Breakaway State.” Council on Foreign Relations, January 25, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/somaliland-horn-africas-breakaway-state. Accessed December 12, 2024. It has held its own democratic elections since 2003, and in 2010 it saw a largely peaceful transfer of power to the opposition Peace, Unity, and Development Party. The United States, France, the United Kingdom, and the European Union (EU) sent delegations to observe Somaliland’s 2017 presidential election. Somaliland postponed its 2022 election and extended President Muse Bihi Abdi’s term by two years, citing financial constraints; its next vote is currently set for November 13, 2024. Warrant: Somaliland is an oasis of stability in an area rife with conflict Ferragamo, Mariel and Claire Klobucista. “Somaliland: The Horn of Africa’s Breakaway State.” Council on Foreign Relations, January 25, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/somaliland-horn-africas-breakaway-state. Accessed December 12, 2024. The territory has widely been seen as an “oasis” for stability in a turbulent region. “From the Somalilanders’ perspective, they have a completely reasonable argument,” Bronwyn Bruton, democracy and governance expert, said in 2018. “Somaliland is trying to break off from Somalia, which hasn’t been a functioning country in decades.” Champion Briefs 49 Pro Arguments January 2025 Democracy and civil liberties watchdog Freedom House rates Somaliland’s freedom index at “partly free,” scoring a forty-four out of one hundred in 2023, while Somalia got only eight in the same year—an unequivocally “not free” status, and the fourteenth- lowest worldwide. However, Somaliland’s score has declined in recent years following crackdowns on opposition protestors when its parliament postponed the 2022 presidential election. Warrant: Abdullahi’s recent electoral victory and peaceful transition confirm – Somaliland is a functional democracy Cannon, Brendon J. “Somaliland’s new government is ready to drive change: these are its 3 big goals.” The Conversation, November 22, 2024, https://theconversation.com/somalilands-new-government-is-ready-to-drive- change-these-are-its-3-big-goals-244189. Accessed December 12, 2024. The election was Somaliland’s fourth successful one-person, one-vote presidential election. Despite a shaky few years, the poll demonstrates a commitment to democracy, rule of law and peaceful power transitions. Waddani’s victory signifies a strong public endorsement for change – 64% of Somalilanders voted for the opposition party. This ended 14 years of rule under the Kulmiye party. Impact: Somaliland is fundamentally a more functioning country than Somalia Adegoke, Yinka. “A Trump White House looks set to recognize the world’s newest country.” Semafor, December 10, 2024, https://www.semafor.com/article/12/10/2024/somaliland-trump-white-house- looks-set-to-recognize-the-region. Accessed December 12, 2024. Champion Briefs 50 Pro Arguments January 2025 “I support recognizing [Somaliland] because they’ve fundamentally proved they can run their own country and there’s no plausible scenario where they’d willingly return to Somalia,” said Joshua Meservey, an analyst at the Hudson Institute think tank. While Somalia’s leaders would likely be displeased with such a decision, Meservey said they hadn’t done enough for the US to not prioritize its own interests in the sub-region. Impact: Somaliland has continued its success despite setbacks - Gavin, Michelle. “Recognizing Somaliland’s Democratic Success.” Council on Foreign Relations, June 8, 2021, https://www.cfr.org/blog/recognizing-somalilands- democratic-success. Accessed December 12, 2024. Somaliland is not perfect; no place on earth is. But in the midst of regional crisis and global democratic backsliding, Somaliland’s achievements and dogged commitment to its principles deserve more notice. Somaliland stands as a rebuke to those who claim that authoritarianism is simply the required price of stability in the region, or that democratic principles are a fetish of foreigners with no real traction on the ground. Its successes should also prompt policymakers abroad, currently fixated on the Horn of Africa’s multiple crises, to rethink what is possible in the region. Somaliland’s example suggests that the answer may be vastly more ambitious, and far less sensitive to external influence, than conventional wisdom might suggest. Explanation: This argument is straightforward, stating that Somaliland is a more stable government and therefore more deserving of international recognition than Somalia, the state it broke away from. This argument should be heavy on rhetoric – We’re talking about morals and “doing the right thing,” which doesn’t always carry a big impact. Because of that, this argument is best suited for lay debates. Champion Briefs 51 Pro Arguments January 2025 PRO: African Union Recognition grants Somaliland international legitimacy Argument: African Union recognition grants Somaliland international legitimacy Warrant: Most African countries are waiting for the African Union to take action before making their own recognitions of Somaliland Ferragamo, Mariel and Claire Klobucista. “Somaliland: The Horn of Africa’s Breakaway State.” Council on Foreign Relations, January 25, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/somaliland-horn-africas-breakaway-state. Accessed December 12, 2024. Many countries have encouraged the breakaway state’s elections and economic development, but none have recognized Somaliland. While some experts see historical and geopolitical reasons for countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya to take this step, others say the African Union (AU) would have to be the first to do so. “The United States and the UN and all of their allies have worked hard to try to build up the AU and position it as a moral authority,” says Bruton. Warrant: Somaliland’s independence claim is consistent with existing African Union precedent Ferragamo, Mariel and Claire Klobucista. “Somaliland: The Horn of Africa’s Breakaway State.” Council on Foreign Relations, January 25, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/somaliland-horn-africas-breakaway-state. Accessed December 12, 2024. The Somaliland government asserts that it meets most of the requirements of a sovereign democratic state: it holds free and fair elections, has its own currency and Champion Briefs 52 Pro Arguments January 2025 security forces, and issues its own passports. It also says that its independence claim is consistent with a longstanding norm of the African Union and its predecessor that colonial-era borders should be maintained. Some analysts also note that Somalilanders are predominantly from the Isaaq clan, and thus ethnically distinctive from other Somalis. Warrant: Ethiopia has already offered all-but-formal recognition to Somaliland Adegoke, Yinka. “A Trump White House looks set to recognize the world’s newest country.” Semafor, December 10, 2024, https://www.semafor.com/article/12/10/2024/somaliland-trump-white-house- looks-set-to-recognize-the-region. Accessed December 12, 2024. Ethiopia has already made a big bet on Somaliland by signing a controversial maritime agreement with the territory. Africa’s second most populous country is landlocked and very keen to have access to Somaliland’s Berbera port for trade and much more. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s stance with Hargeisa has sparked diplomatic tensions with Somalia’s leaders in Mogadishu and even some mutterings of potential conflict. But if Trump was to recognize Somaliland, Abiy’s gamble could pay off. Impact: African Union recognition would directly trigger United States recognition Rubin, Michael. “On Somaliland, the African Union and UN Betrays Their Own Precedents.” American Enterprise Institute, April 3, 2023, https://www.aei.org/op- eds/on-somaliland-the-african-union-and-un-betrays-their-own-precedents/. Accessed December 12, 2024. The State Department remains disinterested if not dismissive, despite Congressional calls to augment ties to Somaliland. U.S. diplomats resist relations and explain that they Champion Briefs 53 Pro Arguments January 2025 will not formally re-recognize Somaliland until the African Union does so. The African Union, meanwhile, cites a reluctance to change borders and questions the legality of Somaliland’s decision to dissolve its federation with Somalia. On both counts, the African Union betrays its own precedents. Impact: African Union and United Nations decisions are closely linked “As Destabilizing Conflicts Escalate across Africa, United Nations-African Union Partnership Has Never Been More Critical, Top Officials Tell Security Council.” United Nations, October 2, 2024, https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15842.doc.htm. Accessed December 12, 2024. The partnership between the United Nations and African Union has never been more critical, several senior officials told the Security Council today, as they laid out the myriad challenges facing the continent from the world’s largest forced displacement crisis and numerous instances of political instability to territorial disputes and climate- change-driven insecurity. “As the Council is aware, several African countries and sub- regions continue to face significant challenges to achieving lasting peace, security and sustainable development,” Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, Special Representative of the Secretary-General to the African Union and Head of the United Nations Office to the African Union, told the 15-member body. Explanation: This argument builds upon others that discuss Somaliland’s stability and adds a clear impact, stating that international legitimacy is important. From here, teams can link into a variety of impacts and should consider what aspects of the international system might benefit Somaliland the most. Champion Briefs 54 Pro Arguments January 2025 PRO: Recognition of Somaliland strengthens international legitimacy of Taiwan Argument: Recognition of Somaliland strengthens international legitimacy of Taiwan Warrant: Somaliland is a staunch defender of Taiwan and has consistently strengthened ties between the two nations “Somaliland deepens ties with Taiwan..” AfricaNews, August 13, 2024, https://www.africanews.com/2020/09/09/somaliland-deepens-ties-with-taiwan//. Accessed December 12, 2024. Somaliland opened a representative office in Taiwan on Wednesday, returning the favour from Taiwan's office in Somaliland which opened last month. Both are unrecognised, but de facto sovereign territories, and have found common ground in their isolated international status. "Taiwan and Somaliland shared the commitment to safeguarding the values of freedom, democracy, justice and the rule of law", said Joseph Wu, Taiwan's foreign minister. "We both face external pressures, but both proud of our sovereignty and ready to defend it." Warrant: The Somaliland-Taiwan relationship has received tacit support from the United States Hagi, Mohamed. “A Future Outlook: Prospects for Somaliland-Taiwan Relations.” Global Taiwan Institute, May 1, 2024, https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/05/a-future-outlook- prospects-for-somaliland-taiwan-relations/. Accesed December 12, 2024. The relationship between Taiwan and Somaliland has become an issue, causing contrasting reactions from the United States and China. While Washington cautiously Champion Briefs 55 Pro Arguments January 2025 acknowledged Taiwan’s establishment of ties with Somaliland, China responded aggressively by trying to undermine the newfound partnership. Initially, the response from the US administration toward the Taiwan-Somaliland connection seemed lukewarm. Although the White House National Security Council (NSC) tacitly approved the new relations between Taiwan and Somaliland, the State Department continued to follow its “One-Somalia Policy,” refraining from acknowledging Somaliland while exclusively recognizing the Somalian government in Mogadishu. However, within US circles—in Congress and the Pentagon, for instance—there was recognition of Somaliland’s strategic significance and democratic values. Warrant: Taiwan and Somaliland are increasing cooperation and are steadfast supporters of each other’s independence Kao, Anthony. “Shared status fuels closer Taiwan and Somaliland partnership.” Al Jazeera, July 6, 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/6/shared-status-fuels- closer-taiwan-and-somaliland-partnership. Accessed December 12, 2024. “Compared to other countries with diplomatic offices in Somaliland – like the [United Kingdom], Denmark or [United Arab Emirates] – Taiwan has far more specific and politically important bilateral relations, premised on a shared status as de facto states,” Jethro Norman, a researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies focused on conflict and humanitarianism in East Africa, told Al Jazeera. “Relations between the two are both an act of solidarity and a way to enact sovereignty in the absence of international recognition.” Impact: African Union and United Nations decisions are closely linked “As Destabilizing Conflicts Escalate across Africa, United Nations-African Union Partnership Has Never Been More Critical, Top Officials Tell Security Council.” Champion Briefs 56 Pro Arguments January 2025 United Nations, October 2, 2024, https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15842.doc.htm. Accessed December 12, 2024. The partnership between the United Nations and African Union has never been more critical, several senior officials told the Security Council today, as they laid out the myriad challenges facing the continent from the world’s largest forced displacement crisis and numerous instances of political instability to territorial disputes and climate- change-driven insecurity. “As the Council is aware, several African countries and sub- regions continue to face significant challenges to achieving lasting peace, security and sustainable development,” Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, Special Representative of the Secretary-General to the African Union and Head of the United Nations Office to the African Union, told the 15-member body. Impact: It’s past time for United Nations recognition of Taiwan Parello-Plesner, Jonas. “Time for the UN to recognize Taiwan’s voice.” Politico, September 28, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/un-china-taiwan-voice-recognition/. Accessed December 12, 2024. Ignoring Taiwan’s existence is leading to increasingly farcical consequences. Taiwanese journalists are regularly denied access to U.N. bodies; a group of Taiwanese students were barred from learning about the human rights commission in Geneva because their passports weren’t deemed valid documents by U.N. officials; and the exclusion even extended to an American high school that wrote “Taiwan” rather than “Taiwan, Province of China” on its website. These examples may seem ridiculous, but they are the result of a purposeful, long-term strategy to erode support for Taiwan’s very right to exist. China has used its standing to push its officials to the top of international bodies and coerce countries into limiting contact with Taiwan. This lobbying has led to the willful Champion Briefs 57 Pro Arguments January 2025 misreading of Resolution 2758 in a way that is entirely contrary to the U.N.’s founding charter. Explanation: This argument provides a unique impact to international recognition, stating that because Somaliland and Taiwan have strong ties, recognition for Somaliland would carry a positive benefit for Taiwan as well. This can be built upon by referencing prep from the Taiwan topic a few months ago. Champion Briefs 58 Pro Arguments January 2025 PRO: African Union recognition of Somaliland is a prerequisite to United States recognition Argument: African Union recognition of Somaliland is a prerequisite to United States recognition Warrant: Most countries are waiting for the African Union to take action before making their own recognitions of Somaliland Ferragamo, Mariel and Claire Klobucista. “Somaliland: The Horn of Africa’s Breakaway State.” Council on Foreign Relations, January 25, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/somaliland-horn-africas-breakaway-state. Accessed December 12, 2024. Many countries have encouraged the breakaway state’s elections and economic development, but none have recognized Somaliland. While some experts see historical and geopolitical reasons for countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya to take this step, others say the African Union (AU) would have to be the first to do so. “The United States and the UN and all of their allies have worked hard to try to build up the AU and position it as a moral authority,” says Bruton. Warrant: The United States has rejected Somaliland’s agreements with individual countries Cannon, Brendan J. “Somaliland’s new government is ready to drive change: these are its 3 big goals.” The Conversation, November 22, 2024, https://theconversation.com/somalilands-new-government-is-ready-to-drive- change-these-are-its-3-big-gaoals-244189. Accessed December 12, 2024. Champion Briefs 59 Pro Arguments January 2025 The pace of recognition from the US and UK has been slow. And the west condemned Somaliland’s deal with Ethiopia. This deal gives Ethiopia access to a strip of Somaliland’s coastline in return for acknowledgement of Somaliland’s independence. But Waddani must carefully navigate that deal, signed by the previous administration. The leaders I spoke to said: We don’t know the details of the MOU (memorandum of understanding). How can we implement it before we evaluate it in light of the interests of our country and its people? Washington’s rejection of the agreement surprised Bihi and his administration. Warrant: Som