Global Environmental Change PDF

EXECUTIVE SHORT-TERM COURSES IN ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS TRACK B: PROFICIENCY CERTIFICATE IN ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS MODULE 2 DAY 9 SESSION 2 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Dr. Maged Hamed, Ph.D., P.E. Regional Safeguard Coordinator & Co-TTL of SPESSE The Environment Global Practice of the West an...

EXECUTIVE SHORT-TERM COURSES IN ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS TRACK B: PROFICIENCY CERTIFICATE IN ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS MODULE 2 DAY 9 SESSION 2 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Dr. Maged Hamed, Ph.D., P.E. Regional Safeguard Coordinator & Co-TTL of SPESSE The Environment Global Practice of the West and Central Africa - SAWE4 March 2022 Copyright © All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the National Universities Commission of Nigeria and the World Bank, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the Executive Secretary, National Universities Commission, Abuja-Nigeria, Attention: Coordinator, Special Projects, and to the World Bank, Attention: Dr. Maged Hamed, Lead Environmental Specialist. Course Content  Definition of Global warming, Climate Change, Weather  The Greenhouse Gases (GHG) effect and how they work  Common Greenhouse Gases  Contribution of GHGs to climate change  Effects Caused by Global Warming  Global Warming Potential (GWP)  The Paris Agreement  The Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC in 2021  Potential Policy Solutions  Nigeria’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution What is the Difference between Climate Change and Global Warming  Global warming” refers to the long-term warming of the planet. “Global warming” is one measure of climate change and refers to a rise in the average global temperature. Human activities such as industrialization, deforestation and intensive agriculture have increased emissions of greenhouse gases  “Climate change” encompasses global warming but refers to the broader range of changes that are happening to our planet, including rising sea levels; shrinking mountain glaciers; accelerating ice melt in Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic; and shifts in flower/plant blooming times. “Climate change” refers to long-term shifts in weather patterns caused by HUMAN ACTIVITIES  The Sun can influence Earth’s climate, but it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen in recent decades. "Global Climate Change: Evidence." NASA Global Climate Change and Global Warming: Vital Signs of the Planet. Jet Propulsion Laboratory / National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 15 June 2008. Web. 14 Jan. 2015.. What is the Difference between Weather and Climate  “Weather” refers to the more local changes in the climate we see around us, on short timescales from minutes to hours, to days to weeks. Examples are familiar – rain, snow, clouds, winds, thunderstorms, sleet. It describes short- term occurrences, like a rainy morning or a hot, sunny day  “Climate” refers to longer-term averages (which may be regional or global) and can be thought of as the weather averaged over several decades.  Climate is what you expect to happen overall, and weather is what you get in the moment. "Global Climate Change: Evidence." NASA Global Climate Change and Global Warming: Vital Signs of the Planet. Jet Propulsion Laboratory / National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 15 June 2008. Web. 14 Jan. 2015.. Greenhouse Gases  The greenhouse effect is the way in which heat is trapped close to Earth's surface by “greenhouse gases”  These heat-trapping gases can be thought of as a blanket wrapped around Earth, keeping the planet toastier than it would be without them  Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxides  Scientists have determined that carbon dioxide's warming effect helps stabilize Earth's atmosphere.  Without carbon dioxide, Earth's surface would be some 33 °C (59 °F) cooler. Without the greenhouse effect, Earth’s temperature would be below freezing  The level of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has been rising consistently for decades and traps extra heat near Earth's surface, causing temperatures to rise. "Global Climate Change: Evidence." NASA Global Climate Change and Global Warming: Vital Signs of the Planet. Jet Propulsion Laboratory / National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 15 June 2008. Web. 14 Jan. 2015.. "Global Climate Change: Evidence." NASA Global Climate Change and Global Warming: Vital Signs of the Planet. Jet Propulsion Laboratory / National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 15 June 2008. Web. 14 Jan. 2015. How Does Greenhouse Effect Work  Solar energy absorbed at Earth’s surface is radiated back into the atmosphere as heat. As the heat makes its way through the atmosphere and back out to space, greenhouse gases absorb much of it.  Why do greenhouse gases absorb heat? Greenhouse gases are more complex than other gas molecules in the atmosphere, with a structure that can absorb heat. They radiate the heat back to the Earth's surface, to another greenhouse gas molecule, or out to space. "Global Climate Change: Evidence." NASA Global Climate Change and Global Warming: Vital Signs of the Planet. Jet Propulsion Laboratory / National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 15 June 2008. Web. 14 Jan. 2015.. Chemical Nomenclature Common Greenhouse Gases  There are several different types of greenhouse gases. The major ones are carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, and nitrous oxide. These gas molecules all are made of three or more atoms. The atoms are held together loosely enough that they vibrate when they absorb heat. Eventually, the vibrating molecules release the radiation, which will likely be absorbed by another greenhouse gas molecule. This process keeps heat near the Earth’s surface. Most of the gas in the atmosphere is nitrogen and oxygen, which cannot absorb heat and contribute to the greenhouse effect.  Carbon dioxide: Made of one carbon atom and two oxygen atoms, carbon dioxide molecules make up a small fraction of the atmosphere but have a large effect on climate. There was about 270 parts per million volume (ppmv) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in the mid-19th Century at the start of the Industrial Revolution. The amount is growing as burning fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. There is about 400 parts per million volume (ppmv) now. CO2 accounts for a vast 82% of greenhouse gases i Common Greenhouse Gases (ctd..)  Methane: A powerful greenhouse gas, able to absorb far more heat than carbon dioxide, methane is made of one carbon and four hydrogen atoms. Methane is the simplest hydrocarbon, consisting of one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas. Methane is flammable and is used as a fuel worldwide. It is a principal component of natural soil is found in very small quantities in the atmosphere but is able to make a big impact on warming. Methane gas is also used as a fuel. When burned, it releases carbon dioxide greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. On its own, methane is 30 times stronger than CO2. It contributes between 10-25% of global warming and though it remains in the atmosphere for less time than CO2 does (about 10 years vs. 100), methane eventually turns into more CO2. Common Greenhouse Gases  Nitrous oxide is a naturally-occurring gas that is part of the nitrogen cycle, which helps plants grow. Though it is found naturally in our atmosphere, fertilizer and fuel combustion are major sources of nitrous oxide overproduction.. Even though nitrous oxide only makes up 6% of greenhouse gases, nitrous oxide is 300 times stronger than CO2. It takes 114 years to break down.  Water Vapor The most abundant greenhouse gas, but importantly, it acts as a feedback to the climate. Water vapor increases as the Earth's atmosphere warms, but so does the possibility of clouds and precipitation, making these some of the most important feedback mechanisms to the greenhouse effect.  Fluorinated gases : Fluorinated gases are human-made gases that are often used in refrigerants such as CFC 13 , air conditioners, foams, and aerosols, like haircare products or certain cleaning products. Fluorinated gases may only account for 3% of greenhouse gas emissions, but they are 23,000 times stronger than CO2. They pose a threat to the atmosphere particularly because they are not a natural component of it. Fortunately, there are simple changes humans can make to reduce the impact of fluorinated gases on the Earth. Common Greenhouse Gases (ctd..)  Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and nitrogen trifluoride are synthetic, powerful greenhouse gases that are emitted from a variety of industrial processes. Fluorinated gases are sometimes used as substitutes for stratospheric ozone-depleting substances (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons, and halons). These gases are typically emitted in smaller quantities, but because they are potent greenhouse gases, they are sometimes referred to as High Global Warming Potential gases ("High GWP gases").  The ozone hole is not causing global warming, but it is affecting atmospheric circulation Contribution of Greenhouse Gases to Climate Change  Greenhouse gases like to linger—and the stronger they are, the more they affect how much heat is trapped in the atmosphere  The effect of each GHG depends on the following:  Concentration (or abundance): The amount of a GHG in the air. Larger emissions of GHGs lead to higher concentrations in the atmosphere  Duration: How long the gas stays in the atmosphere. The time frame can range from several years to several millennia  Potency: How strongly the gas contributes to heating the earth. Some GHGs have a higher global warming potential Ref: L.Jackson and L Jerome, The Good guide to Learning abut Climate Change Effects Caused by Global Warming  Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change consisting of 1300 scientists worldwide stated:  Taken as a whole, the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.  3rd and 4th IPCC assessment indicated:  Change Will Continue Through This Century and Beyond The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the amount of heat-trapping gases emitted globally  Temperatures Will Continue to Rise. the temperature rise has not been, and will not be, uniform or smooth across the country or over time. The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2.12 degrees Fahrenheit (1.18 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere and other human activities. he years 2016 and 2020 are tied for the warmest year on record Effects Caused by Global Warming (ctd..)  Warming of Ocean Surface Waters: As the ocean warms, it expands and sea level rises, accounting for about a third of the approximately 20-centimeter sea level rise seen in the past century. Water released by melting land-based ice sheets contributes the other two-thirds of sea level rise.. Tn Oceans has absorbed 90%of hat from global warming. Water resists changes in temperature; it is slow to heat up and slow to cool down. In scientific terms, water has high heat capacity. This means that, so far, Earth's ocean has been able to absorb and hold a majority of the heat from Earth's atmosphere. Th normal temperature range for ocean surface water in -2C-35 C Very cold and very salty water sinks to become deep water in Earth's polar regions, while warm water tends to remain on the surface in tropical waters. Fresh water freezes at 0°C, but sea water freezes at colder temperatures because it contains salt. Effects of Global Warming  Frost-free Season (and Growing Season) will Lengthen affecting ecosystems and agriculture  Changes in Precipitation Patterns are likely to increase greater than the national average  More Droughts and Heat Waves summer temperatures are projected to continue rising, and a reduction of soil moisture, which exacerbates heat waves, is projected  Even though CO2 comprises 80% of the greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, it’s like long-sleeved thermal undershirt that might make you feel a little too warm on a hot day, while nitrous oxide is more like an uncomfortable sweater, and fluorinated gases are like that sweltering coat. If the levels of nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases continue to increase, we could be in serious trouble because they are so much stronger than CO2 and methane. Fortunately, we can make efforts to help our planet stay cool, because, unlike us, the Earth can’t shed those extra layers. Effects Caused by Global Warming  Hurricanes Will Become Stronger and More Intense. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.  Sea Level Will Rise 1-8 feet by 2100. Global sea level rose about 8 inches (20 centimeters) in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double. This is the result of added water from melting land ice and the expansion of seawater as it warms. Storm surges and high tides could combine with sea level rise and land subsidence to further increase flooding in many regions. According to the World Resources Institute, in 1995 2.2 billion people, or 39 percent of the world's population, lived on or within 100 kilometers of a seashore.  Arctic Likely to Become Ice-Free. The Arctic Ocean is expected to become essentially ice free in summer before mid-century. Experiment show Greenland lost an average of 279 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2019, while Antarctica lost about 148 billion tons of ice per year.7 "Global Climate Change: Evidence." NASA Global Climate Change and Global Warming: Vital Signs of the Planet. Jet Propulsion Laboratory / National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 15 June 2008. Web. 14 Jan. 2015.. Sea Level Rise "Global Climate Change: Evidence." NASA Global Climate Change and Global Warming: Vital Signs of the Planet. Jet Propulsion Laboratory / National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 15 June 2008. Web. 14 Jan. 2015.. Global Warming Potential (GWP)  Global warming potential (GWP) is the heat absorbed by any greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, as a multiple of the heat that would be absorbed by the same mass of carbon dioxide (CO2). GWP is 1 for CO2. For other gases it depends on the gas and the time frame. The larger the GWP, the more that a given gas warms the Earth compared to CO2 over that time period. The time period usually used for GWPs is 100 years. GWPs provide a common unit of measure, which allows analysts to add up emissions estimates of different gases (e.g., to compile a national GHG inventory), and allows policymakers to compare emissions reduction opportunities across sectors and gases.  Those GHG 2007 estimates are Chemical still usedFormula for international100-yatGloabl comparisonsWarming 5] Potential ( 2007stimatrs for (2013-2020) Carbon Dioxide CO2 1 Methane CH4 25 Nitrogen Oxides NO2 296 Hydrofluorocarbons ( HFCs) CHF3 14800 23 https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warming-potentials Ref: L.Jackson and L Jerome, The Good guide to Learning abut Climate Change The Paris Agreement  The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016.  Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.  To achieve this long-term temperature goal, countries aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to achieve a climate neutral world by mid-century.  The Paris Agreement works on a 5- year cycle of increasingly ambitious climate action carried out by countries. By 2020, countries submit their plans for climate action known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The Paris Agreement | UNFCCC The Paris Agreement (ctd..)  In their NDCs, countries communicate actions they will take to reduce their Greenhouse Gas emissions in order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries also communicate in the NDCs actions they will take to build resilience to adapt to the impacts of rising temperatures.  To better frame the efforts towards the long-term goal, the Paris Agreement invites countries to formulate and submit by 2020 long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS).Unlike NDC’s ,they are not mandatory  Countries established an enhanced transparency framework (ETF). Under ETF, starting in 2024, countries will report transparently on actions taken and progress in climate change mitigation, adaptation measures and support provided or received. It also provides for international procedures for the review of the submitted reports. The Paris Agreement | UNFCCC The Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC in 2021  The Current State of the Climate  A.1 It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.  A.2 The scale of recent changes across the climate system as a whole and the present state of many aspects of the climate system are unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years.  A.3 Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. Evidence of observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones, and, in particular, their attribution to human influence, has strengthened since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).  A.4 Improved knowledge of climate processes, paleoclimate evidence and the response of the climate system to increasing radiative forcing gives a best estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3°C, with a narrower range compared to AR5. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. World GHG emissions ( 2019)  The World 38,016.47 MEGA Tons (MT) ( 1MT= 1,000,000 Tonnes) Countries GHG emission Emission per Mega Tons capita (2019) China 11,535 8.1 USA 5,107 15.5 Europe 3,304 6.5 India 2,597 1.9 Russia 1,792 12.5 https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ (Emission Data base for Global Atmospheric Research 2019 Global Increase in Temperature Ref:IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, 2021 Ref: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, 2021 SSP=Socio Economic Pathway (SSP are) are scenarios of projected socioeconomic global changes up to 2100. They are used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with different climate policies Ref: L.Jackson and L Jerome, The Good guide to Learning abut Climate Change Possible Climate Future  Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered.  Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.  Many changes in the climate system become larger in direct relation to increasing global warming. They include increases in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes, marine heatwaves, and heavy precipitation, agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions, and proportion of intense tropical cyclones, as well as reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and permafrost.  Continued global warming is projected to further intensify the global water cycle, including its variability, global monsoon precipitation and the severity of wet and dry events.  Under scenarios with increasing CO2 emissions, the ocean and land carbon sinks are projected to be less effective at slowing the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.  Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. In Press Limiting Future Climate Change  From a physical science perspective, limiting human-induced global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, reaching at least net zero CO2 emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions. Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in CH4 emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution and would improve air quality.  Scenarios with low or very low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions) lead within years to discernible effects on greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, and air quality, relative to high and very high GHG emissions scenarios IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. In Press Potential Policy Solutions  IFCC report of 2018 warned that we have only 12 years for Global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5oC  Price carbon pollution Putting a price on carbon incentivizes polluters to either reduce their emissions or pay for polluting practices. There are two main types of carbon pricing:  Emissions trading systems (ETS): Otherwise known as a “cap-and-trade system,” this approach sets a limit on total GHG emissions and allows industries with low emissions to sell their allowance to other polluters  Carbon tax: This approach sets a tax rate on GHG emissions or on the carbon content of fossil fuels. The bar for emissions isn’t defined, but the tax rate is. In some countries such as Canada, the carbon tax that’s collected by the government is then redistributed to citizens in the form of a rebate. Carbon tax worked in Canada and Britain but not in France as it triggers popular manifestations Potential Policy Solutions (ctd..)  Shift to Electric. Unlike energy sources like natural gas and oil, electricity can be generated from renewable sources. The more we electrify, the more impact there is when we shift our sources of electricity to clean energy. Britain will not manufacture. allow any vehicle that is not electric after 2030  Commitment by Corporations to Carbon Reduction: Efforts from corporations to become carbon neutral or even, carbon negative goes a long way, and is becoming increasingly more common.. Some of the businesses such as Delta Airlines, Amazon, Apple and Micosoft , which has pledged to go carbon neutral by 2030-2050, and both Microsoft and Ikea, which have declared that they will actively reduce carbon dioxide emissions Investments Required and Renewable Energy in 2018  IPCC (2021) stated that an investment of US$ 1.6 trillion a year till 2050 “to put the planet on a safe trajectory”  Global investment in renewable energy capacity in 2018 was $272.9 billion, the fifth successive year in which it has exceeded $250 billion, but down 12% compared to 2017 – due in large part to a policy change that hit the financing of Chinese solar in the second half of the year. N  The global investment figure for 2018 was achieved despite continuing falls in the capital cost of solar and wind projects. Solar kept its position as the technology attracting the most capacity investment, at $133.5 billion, although this was down 22% on 2017. Wind secured $129.7 billion, up 3%.  Renewable energy capacity investment was more spread out across the globe than ever, with 29 countries each investing more than $1 billion in 2018, up from 25 in 2017 and 21 in 2016. China invested the most, at $88.5 billion, down 38%, with Europe on $59.9 billion, up 45%, and the U.S. on $42.8 billion, down 6%. Middle East and Africa showed the sharpest increase, of 61%, to $16.1 billion Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF. 2019. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2019, http://www.fs-unep- centre.org (Frankfurt am Main) Investments Required and Renewable Energy in 2018 (ctd..)  Spain, Vietnam, Ukraine and South Africa were among the countries in the "$1 billion-plus club" that saw capacity investment jump by more than fivefold in 2018. There were also increases of 100% or more in investment in the Netherlands, Sweden, Morocco, Russia and Taiwan. d Morocco and Kenya also easily exceeded the $1 billion barrier. Kenya saw investment of $1.4 billion in 2018, the highest on record,  Investment in renewables capacity in 2018 was about three times global investment in coal and gas-fired generation capacity combined. This came despite further reductions last year in the average capital cost per MW of solar and wind projects. Nigeria: Contribution to GHG per capita  Total GHG emissions 1.67 T/capita (2015)  Total CH4 per capita 0.998 (2015)  Total NOx per capita 0.174 ( 2015)  Contribution to CO2 World Emissions 0.26% (2019)  Emission of CO2 per capita 0.5 T/capita (2019) https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/country_profile/NGA Nigeria‘s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution Aspect Detail Type of objective Reduction from Business as Usual (BAU) Target year 2030 Implementation Period 2015-2030 Base data period 2010-2014 Summary of Economic and social development: grow economy 5% per year, objective improve standard of living, electricity access for all Unconditional and 20% unconditional, conditional mitigation objectives 45% conditional Work towards ending gas flaring by 2030 Work towards Off-grid solar PV of 13GW (13,000MW) Efficient gas generators Key measures 2% per year energy efficiency (30% by 2030) Transport shift car to bus Improve electricity grid Climate smart agriculture and reforestation Emissions as % of global total