Geopolitics of the Poles PDF

GEOPOLITICS OF THE POLES Dr.Camille Escudé (livre cnrs les poles) [email protected] Final exam : dissertation 1-2H on all that we did in class especially on the presentation 2 ou 3 questions, general question , precise example and knowledge Introduction-syllabus reading (10min) Regard...

GEOPOLITICS OF THE POLES Dr.Camille Escudé (livre cnrs les poles) [email protected] Final exam : dissertation 1-2H on all that we did in class especially on the presentation 2 ou 3 questions, general question , precise example and knowledge Introduction-syllabus reading (10min) Regarder occupied sur arte et borgen season 4 sur netflix Lire le syllabus, faire un résumée des lectures avant chaque cours. Part 1. The Poles: a new object for Geopolitics Session 1. « What globalization does to polar regions “ 1. The Poles: What are we talking about? Antarctic: continent surrounded by ocean.  Has never hosted any population.  Nobody owns it.  A lot of country claiming this territory (Australia, Argentine, Chile, France, UK…)  But the Antarctic is a territory of peace and research. Antarctic Treaty 1959 Arctic: polar region who touch Europe, Asia, and North America  4 million people living  20% of indigenous people (before the colonization process)  8 different countries (USA, Canada, Russia, Finland, Sweden, island, Denmark, Norway) Global warming + the end of the Cold war: growing opportunities Geopolitics= study of power competitions over territories (Yves.Lacoste) Territory= space appropriated by societies. What geopolitical issues at different scales are raised by climate change and what are the consequences for territories and their populations? Polar regions - Constraint or resource? (both) - Exploitation or sanctuary?  - Conflict or cooperation? - What is the legitimacy of decision-making in the face of an ever-growing number of players? Common constraints- a diversity of territories  Tromso, Norway  Iqaluit, Nunavut, Canada  Concordia, Antarctic The gulf stream effect: 2. Living in the Poles. The major impact of climate change Territories that are particularly vulnerable to CC. - -12% reduction in sea ice per year. - The end of the summer ice pack is scheduled for 2050 (IPCC, 2020) - Although the winter ice pack will continue to reform  Important for resource CC effects in Antarctica: - Antarctica: 90% of the Earth’s ice= 70% of its fresh water.  If all the ice melt, Consequences can be that ocean would rise up of 63m. - Average melting if its ice sheet haw risen from 40 Gt per year to 252 Gt per year over the last 10 years. - The Southern Ocean absorbs a third of the CO2 captured by the oceans. - Over the last 30 years, the Antarctic Ocean has warmed 3 times faster than average. - Overfishing is threatening ecosystems. Exercise: Critical commentary on maps. 1) Description (present the map, explain what you see) 2) Analysis (explain why the map was done this way and no other way) 3) Critique (what could have been different… put in evidence the reality, the choices, objectivity, subjectivity) 1) This map, shows the distribution of indigenous people in the Arctic region, covering parts of North American, and Russia. The map uses different shades, we can see that areas like Greenland and Nunavut have the highest percentages, while other regions like Norway and Finland have smaller indigenous populations. The map also includes the names of various indigenous groups and shows administrative regions. 2) I think this map was made to highlight the concentration of indigenous populations across the Arctic, helping people visualize where these communities are most significant. The use of color makes it easy to compare regions at a glance. The map includes a large international area, from Alaska to Russia, suggesting that it wants to show a broad, cross-border picture of indigenous life in the Arctic. (Using regions based on country borders reflects the political reality these communities live within, even though their cultures existed long before modern borders.) 3) While the map is useful for showing indigenous population percentages, it could be improved by including numbers. For example, Greenland looks very dark because more than 75% of its population is small compared to other regions. The map also uses modern political borders, which don’t always match the traditional territories of these indigenous groups. And while the map shows where indigenous people live, it doesn’t give much context about their history or the challenges they face today. Including climate change for example, so we don’t have explication of why they are in concentrated in these areas. Question? What do you think the main goal of this map is? Is it just to show where indigenous populations live, or do you think it’s meant to make us think about the challenges they face today?  I think there is information missing in this map to understand why indigenous people are concentrated in some areas, including climate change for example, like we don’t have explication of why they are in these areas. SESSION 2: THINKING ABOUT THE ARTCTIC BEYOND COLONIAL LEGACIES  The Arctic for the West: a territory to be explored and exploited, full of fantasies and seen from the outside.  Edward Saïd (Orientalism, 1978) > applied to the Artic by Ann Fienup-Riordan in the 1990s.  How can we “de-Orientalize” the Arctic? And rethink our understanding, beyond external and fantasized perceptions. Building a space to conquer - Mercator 1595 - Among the first map to indicate an all-water route across the top of North America. - An enormous magnetic rock encircled by four islands forms the North pole. Blank space “For most of us the Arctic is, above all, an idea. It cannot be mapped; it can only be described. Cold, isolation, emptiness, white, pristine-these are the words it evokes; these are the preconceptions through which we filter all subsequent information about it. Yet many of those preconceptions- the same ones which, as a child, drew me towards the Arctic- are wrong.” Charles Emmerson, The Future history of the Arctic, 2010  How does the definition of the Arctic conceal issues of colonial domination? Defining the Arctic is a political undertaking. The Arctic thought by and for the South  The arctic= exotism (JF Staszak, 2008), a break with the modern world.  Imaginations conveyed by stories, art, the media, tourism and political institutions.  The Arctic= a frozen space, passively undergoing the effects of capitalist society. The Arctic, the last frontier?  Frontier> limit of the territory controlled and developed within a state (Turner, 1893)  Pioneer front (#border): an area undergoing a comprehensive development process, aimed at aligning the limits of its development with its administrative boundaries.  The mobilization of Western imaginations of a romanticized wilderness makes it possible to integrate the need to dominate it and make it profitable. “A norther tracker in Love of life, slowly becomes a part of the wilderness on his treacherous trek to rejoin civilization.” Homogenizing an area: a conquest tool for colonization - Some Nations are dying out in Siberia (Kereks), while others are gaining increasing power (Nunavut, 1999) - IP are often seen as part of a non-capitalist, ecologically sustainable model  - From developmentalist colonial policies to the integration of natives within them Anti-greenpeace demonstration , nuuk Inhabited Arctic territories: the example of the Sámi - Their ancestral territory- called Sapmi- covers 4 countries, with 80 000 individuals. - From the 16th onwards, the Samis were subjected to racist policies specific to each country. Parti 1. Session 3. The Arctic : a question of internal or external geopolitics? “Diplomacy should not be approached as a segmenred process of the different actors within a state, but rather a system in which the different actors within a state are entangled, both inside and outside their national settings, to embrace a diversity of interests- a multilayered diplomacy, New York, St.Martin’s Press, 1993. Identity-based paradiplomacy in the Arctic Ingrid medby lire, article  “Paradiplomacy” (1980): a mandate given to official representatives of an infra-state entity to negotiate with international players (S.Paquin, 2004).  Context: 1) Crisis of the State and globalization 2) Internationalization of international relations 3) Rise of nationalism  Identity entrepreneur’s objective: political independence.  Indentity-based paradiplomacy (Paquin, 2004): “The international search for symbolic and material resources that are lacking internally, in order to gain recognition as a nation on the international stage’.  =Developing International relations that are partially beyond the control of the state.  Arctic Council: implemented with the aim of inclusiveness.  But growing tension: 1) A desire by non-traditional players to interfere in regional governance, with criticism of the current governance model as too restrictive. 2) Closure of regional governance by traditional players.  Regional governance: a democratic alibi for the states ?  Which geopolitical strategies in the Arctict for non-states strake holders ? 1. National and international Arctic policies of indigenous peoples You can vote on: - Political representation on a territorial base: Northwest territories, Yukon, Nunavut  - Political representation on an ethnical base: Finland, Sweden, Sami parliament of Norway The increasingly limited role of indigenous populations on a regional scale - No voting rights for permanent participants - No binding decisions - “The challenges lie in the capacity” (S1-2017) Inequality of financial, human and linguistic capacities, etc. - Increasing states pressure? - Dilution of local power as the region opens up to the rest of the world.  The Arctic council is only a political thing, it doesn’t have any real power, but the challenges of indigenous people depend on it. A “top-down” confiscation of the political governance process ? 2. The roles of sub-national entities A. Quebec and the Arctic  The Arctic: a government priority for Quebec  Quebec Arctic policy subject to the federal government but attempting to emancipate itself from it.  Political strategy: between investment in traditional international Arctic policy and emancipation. Maps: a geopolitical challenge - Nunavik, a territory under Quebec jurisdiction - Nuvanik: beyond the 55th parallel north. 90% of its inhabitants are inuit. - Canada’s official national Arctic limit was the 60th parallel. - Following Quebec lobbying, the Canadian arctic limit is now the 55th parallel north - This new boundary includes nuvanik, and therefore quebc. An internal policy first - Quebec’s new ten-year foreign policy, published in 2017, devotes a great deal of attention to the Arctic. - A budget of 100million CAD for 5 years. - Appointment of a special envoy for climate change and northern and arctic issues. - Plan Nord in 2011. - Forums and conferences: arctic forum in Quebec city (2016) opened by formers islandic president and Quebec prime minister Foreign diplomacy hat bypasses traditional regional bodies - Quebec representatives take part I, Arctic council ministerial meeting - Québec hosted meetings of Arctic council working groups. - Bilateral relations with Arctic stakeholders - A good example of “identity-based paradiplomacy” (Paquin, 2004) B. Scotland and the Arctic 1. Criticism of London’s lack of interest in the Arctic  - Angus Robertson, The Scotsman, 2011 ( leader of the Scottish national party in the house of commons) “high time to join our friends in the north and face the arctic challenge”: not once does the word “arctic” appear in the strategic defence and security review. - The UK governement’s apparent lack of interest in the Arctic is an invitation to Scotland to fill the vacancy. 2. Geographical links - The Shetland Islands, north of Scotland, are closer to the Arctic Circle than to the British capital. - Nicola Sturgeon , Scotland’s First Minister: “special relationship” between Scotland and the Arctic 3. Historical links - 62% of Icelandic DNA comes from Ireland and the UK - Historical and cultural links with Iceland and Denmark predate 1707 (Unity of great Britain). Until then, scotland’s history was that of a northern country. - Scotland’s place at the center of these new trade routes. - Extraction and export of hydrocarbons, unlike the UK. - Scotland is more exposed to changes in the Arctic (fishing, port development, pollution). As a result: development of a very active paradiplomacy since the 2010s An autonomous Arctic strategy Arctic circle conference 2017  Scotland’s arctic policy: primarli a prextex for distancing itself from London? Part 2. New players and new challenges in Arctic geopolitics Session 4. Resources and issues surrounding the management of human activities. 1) A mixed review for Arctic shipping: destination traffic, not international transit First distinction: between the two main arctic road - northwest passage which is in the North of America and Canada - Northeast Maritim road from Asia to Europe 2nd distinction: difference between 2 traffic - A destination traffic. - International transit  Climate change > melting ice> opening up trade routes.  In theory: huge distance gains: up to 40% distance gain between Europe and Asia via the NWP instead of Suez.  In practice: a more mixed picture The Northwest Passage, a desert of ice - A road frozen for most of the year. - No development plan, very little infrastructure (deep-water ports, icebreakers, etc.) - Very little traffic: around 150 full passages since the beginning of the 20th century A strategic route for the USSR and then Russia since the early 20th century> An ice-free road most of the year> Growing traffic due to resource exploitation (cabotage)> 2019: target of 80 million tons of annual freight on the Northern Sea route by 2025 (x4). Advantages - Distance gains - Navigation safety But still many obstacles - Unpredictable sailing conditions (small icebergs multiply) - Technical obstacles (lack of infrastructure, icebreakers) - Financial obstacles (taxes, cost of trained personnel and equipment) - Environmental risks - Not compatible with the just-in-time logic of international trade  No “highways” for international trade, but destination traffic (F.Lasserre) 2) Uncertain resources and exploitation in the Poles: case studies Objective: to get students thinking about the environmental, economic and geopolitical issues involved in resource management in the polar regions, by confronting them with a concrete situation. Skills: quick thinking, critical analysis, concise presentation. Instructions: you are an expert commissioned by an international organization to advise on the exploitation of resources in a polar region. Based on the subject assigned to you. Answer the following questions: a. Why is this resource important? b. What are the main issues (environmental, economic, social and geopolitical) involved in exploiting this resource? c. Propose a measure or strategy to minimize the negative impacts of human exploitation. Methodology: The student must give a maximum 5-minute presentation based on a document of his choice: photograph, graph, map etc You need to argue and use precise examples. Definition of a resource: an asset that we have the means to develop. Sustainable fisheries management in Antarctica a. Why is this resource important? Antarctic fisheries, particularly Antarctic krill (crevettes), form the foundation of the food web for whales, penguins, seals, and fish. So, this is essential for the marine ecosystem. Krill and other species are harvested for human and animal consumption. The global demand for seafood continues to rise, highlighting the economic significance of sustainable fishing in these waters. b. What are the main issues involved in exploiting this resource? Overfishing can lead to imbalances in the marine ecosystem, threatening species that depend on krill and other fish. And climate change impacts with melting ice and changing temperatures affect fish populations and their habitats, complicating sustainable management. A issue could be also economic issues, is the competition in general for resources, in fact, different countries and compagnies are fighting for access to fish stocks. So Multiple nations have overlapping claims in Antarctic waters, leading to tensions over fishing rights and resource management. c. Propose a measure or strategy to minimize the negative impacts of human exploitation. I propose that we should establishing strict, science-based catch limits, like a strategy to ensure sustainable fisheries management in Antarctica. This measure involves setting quotas based on rigorous scientific assessments of fish populations and ecosystem health, ensuring that fishing activities do not exceed the capacity of these species to regenerate. For example, IN the early 1990s, the cod population in North Atlantic, collapsed due to overfishing, leading to a moratorium on fishing that devastated local economies. In response, regulatory bodies implemented science-based quotas that allowed for careful monitoring of cod stocks. As a result, after several years of stringent limits and recovery efforts, the cod population began to stabilize, and fishing was gradually reopened under controlled conditions. So to effectively implement science-based catch limits in Antarctica, an international research program should be established to monitor fish populations, particularly krill and toothfish. This program would collect essential data to inform sustainable catch limis, while adaptive management practices would ensure that quotas are regularly reviewed and adjusted based on the latest scientific findings and environmental changes. Additionally, strong enforcement measures, including penalties for non- compliance, must be implemented to ensure that fishing fleets adhere to these established limits, promoting the long-term sustainability of Antarctic fisheries. Marine Protected Areas in the Southern Ocean. :The map shows areas in the Southern Ocean where fishing is restricted to protect marine life. Green areas indicate national reserves, while light blue marks specific protected areas like the South Orkney Islands. The Ross Sea protected area is also highlighted, along with proposed areas in dark blue. This visual emphasizes the need for international cooperation in managing and safeguarding these important ecosystems. https://www.heritage.nf.ca/articles/economy/moratorium.php#:~:text=By%20the%20early% 201990s%2C%20after,and%20110%2C000%20tonnes%20in%201992. https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/topic/sustainable-seafood https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/topic/ecosystems https://meetings.ccamlr.org/system/files/meeting-reports/e-cc-41-rep.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227419549_Adaptive_management_of_developi ng_fisheries https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Marine-Protected-Areas-in-the-Southern-Ocean- Marine-environments-around-islands-are_fig2_362277483 https://www.asoc.org/campaign/antarctic-fisheries-management/ https://www.msc.org/species/antarctic-krill   Around 20% of different importation of resources in Russia are from the Arctic region, also around 20% of the Russian GDP is from the Arctic too. Biggest project of natural gaz: Yamal in the Sabetta peninsula (20% of French participation with Total, 30% of Chinese companies) Part 1. Session 2: Mobilization and strategies of new players in international relations in the polar regions 2013 (Kiruna): critical year> a lot of new states since this day are represented in the ARCTIC council 2021: 0 observer accepted in the Arctic council  We can see a growing interest for the Arctic: scientific, economic and then politic.  Translated with the rise of new observer in the arctic council. 1. China and the Arctic Book: “We are a near Arctic state”, China’s Arctic Policy  China is claiming that he has political legitimacy to interfered in the Arctic.  Actually the Arctic is fully link to the big Chinese project, the new silk road!! Since 2018: China claims to have right in the Arctic geopolitics, economy etc. Before there were involved in the Arctic economy (Yamal project)  Thanks to the war between Ukraine and Russia they have more power. The US respons  2019: Rovaniemi https://www.c-span.org/video/?460478-1/secretary-state-pompeo-warns-russia-china- arctic-policy-adress-finland 5’15-14’. In his speech, Secretary Pompeo emphasizes the growing importance of the Arctic as a strategic region and expresses concern over the increasing presence of China. While China claims to be a "Near-Arctic State" and has made significant investments in Arctic infrastructure, Pompeo stresses that there are only Arctic and non-Arctic states, with no room for a third category. He questions China's intentions, citing its aggressive actions in other parts of the world, and warns that China’s activities in the Arctic should be carefully scrutinized. Pompeo also highlights the need for responsible investment and the potential dangers of allowing unchecked Chinese influence in the region. In this context, he contrasts the U.S.’s commitment to free markets, transparency, and rule of law with China’s behavior, urging that all players in the Arctic follow established rules to ensure fair competition and regional stability.   The US is only an Arctic state since the 19th century, before the Alaska was also a Russian territory, and afterward the international ingerence of Washington was everywhere except in the Arctic.  Except during the cold war, the US weren’t very interested in the Arctic, on the very contrary of Russia. 2018: Comeback of the us in the Arctic geopolitics, thank to Trump, Russia and China. Since 1996: The Arctic state was signing a common declaration, in 2019, there was no common declaration bc the US block it because of the mention of climate change (2 years bf they signed it so…). 2023: 2Nd time no signed bc of the Russia-Ukraine war US blockage > back to realpolitik in the region? A double threat identified: - Russia - China 2. A critical analysis of the European Union’s Arctic policy - Objective: Analyze the priorities and impacts of EU policy in the Arctic. - Skills: synthesis, analysis, oral communication. - Intructions: You are a policy advisor for an IO. The European Union has just published a new directive on its Arctic strategy. You have to write a critical note on the priorities of this policy and propose adjustements following this structure: a. Analysis of EU priorities: Identify the main thrusts of the EU’s Arctic policy (environmental, economic, social, geopolitical)? b. What weaknesses would you identify? c. What proposals for improvement can you put forward? d. 5 minutes slide presentation ( no read notes) e. This assignment is based solely on the attached communication “A stronger EU engagement fro a peaceful , sustainable and prosperous Arctic” (2021). Part 3. Governance and cooperation in the Arctic regions Session 6. The making of Arctic multilateral governance 1. The Arctic, a Cold War hot spot… During the cold war and even since the WW2, it has been a cold war space.  Actually, the first military basis in the Arctic are from the WW1.  The two blocks are the closest in the Arctic.  The Bering strait Book: « Les derniers rois de Thulé. » Doctor strangelove, S.Kubrick, 1964   USSR: 2500km military border in the Arctic to protect its strategic territories.  During the Cold War, the USA carried out 1000 reconnaissance and surveillance missions in the Soviet Arctic.  63 bases of the Distant Early Warning Line (DEW Line): radar network designed to monitor Soviet movements. 2. Environmental protection as a driver for regional integration Octobre 1, 1987- Gorbachev- Murmank speech “ What everyone can be absolutely certain of is the Soviet Union’s deep and certain interest in preventing the northern part of the planet from once again becoming an arena for war.” https://www.barentsinfo.fi/docs/gorbachev_speech.pdf - Define a nuclear-free zone in northern Europe. - Restrict naval activities in adjacent seas. - Cooperative and peaceful development of Arctic resources. - Promote scientific research. - Cooperate on environmental protection. - Open the Northern Sea Route to international traffic. The Arctic states , are creating a lot of forum, which is like a pretext to govern. 1987: Gorbatchev-Mourmank speech: beginning of the Cold war in the Arctic. 1991: Arctic Environmental protection strategy. 1996: Arctic Council. So, 3 law agreement have been signed this the creation of the Arctic council even if it’s only a forum without law power: - 2011: “Agreement on cooperation on aeronautical and maritime search and rescue in the Arctic.” - 2013: “Agreement on cooperation on marine oil pollution preparedness and response in the Arctic” - 2017: “Agreement on enhancing international Arctic scientific cooperation.” 2018: Moratorium on banning fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean… Functional and pragmatic cooperation 6 working groups: - ACAP (Arctic Council action plan) - AMAP (Artic monitoring and assessment program) - CAFF (Conservation of Arctic flora and fauna) - EPPR (Emergency, prevention, preparedness and response) - PAME (Protection of the arctic marine environment) - SDWG (Sustainable development working group)  The Arctic Council is established as a high level forum to : provide a means for promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic States, with  the involvement of the Arctic indigenous communities and other Arctic inhabitants on common arctic issues in particular issues* of sustainable development and environmental protection in the Arctic.  *“The Arctic Council should not deal with matters related to military security.”  The Arctic Council, “Ottawa Declaration”, 1996, paragraphe 1 - An inclusive structure - Science-based - Mandate: environmental protection and sustainable development - Non-legally binding - A success story (ex: the Ukrainian crisis))? - … until recently Arctic council 8 member states Canada Denmark Finland Island Norway Russia Sweden United States  Right of vote 6 permanents participants Aleut international association Arctic Athabaskan council Gwich’in council international Inuit circumpolar council Russian association of indigenous Peoples of the north Saami council  Active participation and full consultation 39 observers 13 states 14 intergovernmental organizations 12 NGOs  Contribute as experts and scientists. How many observers is there in the Arctic Council? Right response: 39 Other responses: 35, 6, 40 What is the date of the Gorbatchev- Mourmank speech? Right response: 1987 Other responses: 1977, 1991, 2003  The Arctic council, one forum among many others… Ex: The Arctic five, The Northern forum, the Arctic economic council…etc But the Arctic council is the only one with the 8 Arctic states, it’s the most complete. 3. A political Based on the content covered in the 6 lesson sessions, propose 2 multiple-choice questions in groups of 2 (3 or 4 answers, so highlight one correct answer) in 15 minutes. Session 9 Final exam: November 21 Multiple-choice questionnaire Part 4: Geopolitical tensions and arrangements Session 9: “Scramble for the Arctic”, the great game and the appropriation of polar areas in question https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna20169307   Arctic territories regularly give rise to fears of an armed conflict (3 reasons) 1) The race for maritime areas - United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982): Governs human activities at sea. (Known main principles) - Commitment to the Law of the Sea: All states support this framework to secure an extension beyond 200 nautical miles in the Arctic. - Arctic resources: 95% of mineral resources are within the 200nm zone- a limited economic issue.  Rhetoric of a “race” to appropriate maritime spaces - In fact: no more disputes over land borders since 2022 (Hans Island) - A few disputes over the extension of continental shelves - But settled under international law  Exclusive economic zone (EZZs): Conflicts are limited, except in the Beaufort Sea (USA-Canada) and north of Greenland (Canada-Denmark).  Continental shelf extensions: Coastal states file their claims with the Commission on the limits of the continental shelf, which confirms their geological legitimacy, but not their final approval.  Border negotiations: Necessary after geological validation  Collaborative collection of geological elements Delimitation of borders linked to Arctic routes and straits: a growing challenge. - ILAND WATERS?  Right to control access, charge taxes, icebreaker escort etc? - Or international straits?  Freedom of navigation claimed. Example: The legal status of the NWP  In 1969, the US, concerned about the disposal of oil recently discovered in Alaska, sent the tanker Manhattan to force its way through the straits.  A low intensity battle.  Canada lacks the technical means to assert its sovereignty, despite repeated assertions (harper, 2007 “use it or loose it”). Source: https://cqegheiulaval.com/2021/07/22/le-passage-du-nord-ouest-enjeux-de-la- revendicaton-canadienne/ 2) The spillover of the other conflicts into the Arctic What about the risk of spillover? Https://www.figra.fr/arctique-la-guerre-du-pole/  1980s: Northern Fleet (Murmansk)= 50% pf Russian subarines and 2/3 of its nuclear submarines and 2/3 of its nuclear submarines.  1967-1993: Russian submarines carried out 4800 training missions, most of them carried out by the Northern Fleet in Arctic waters. Substantial military re-investment  Which a substantial disinvestment  Russian navy: from 477 000 men in 1988 to 200 000 in 1995  A Russian interpretation on the Arctic is based on the region’s economic and commercial potential  Come-Back of the Arctic as a strategic region for Russia The come back of the Cold War in the Arctic?  2008: 35 billion euro plan up to 2020: return of the Arctic as a strategic region  A reading based on economic potential, but an increase in the defense and surveillance functions of the Arctic frontier  STrenghtening the capabilities of the Northern Fleet  Construction and restoration of military bases  The Arctic: a priority in Russia’s new naval doctrine (Summer 2022)  VS 2021 US New strategy “regaining arctic dominance” - Since 2022: Arctic Council= 7 NATO members vs Russia - Russia has stepped up its military exercises, as in the Barents sea just before the invasion of Ukraine on February 24 - NATO exercise “cold response” in Norway in agust 2022: 30 000 soldiers from some 30 NATO countries 3) Resource-related conflicts  Mineral and hydrocarbon resources have often been overestimated by studies that have since been called into question (United States Geological survey 2008)  Technical, logistical, climatic and financial obstacles still stand in the way of massive exploitation of certain Arctic subsoil resources.  Many resources have been exploited sometimes for decades in a spirit of good cooperation between arctic stakeholders Example: Novatek’s Arctic LLNG - Russian Arctic: 20% of the country’s GDP and exports - Russia, Siberia, kara sea, Yamal peninsula - 600km north on the Arctic circle, temperatures down to -50°C - 16.5M tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year, 15% of the world market - Russia’s largest natural gas reserves have been discovered on the peninsula. - Project by Russian gas company Gazprom (50%), total (20%) and Chinese groups (30%) Who wants an Arctic war ? - Tensions arising from territorial settlements are resolved within the framework of the law of the sea - Prospects for international maritime trade have been greatly exaggerated - Oil exploitation still unprofitable  - A climate of low tension is the best way to ensure economic development So, the Beaufort Sea is located in the north of Alaska and Canada. Both countries claim part of this sea, specifically a 21 thousand square kilometer area that is believed to have a lot of oil and gas. These resources could be very valuable and bring economic benefits, like jobs and energy independence. The problem is that both countries use different methods to draw their borders in the Arctic, so their claims overlap in this area. While this could create tension, both countries have chosen to handle it through diplomacy and regular discussions instead of escalating the conflict. Session 10: Managing Human Activities and New security approaches 1. Multilateral protection of the environment Early environmental protection initiatives in the Arctic: Early 20th century  1911: North pacific fur seal convention  1920: Svalbard treaty signed by 11 states establishes an international regime for environmental conservation  1973: Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears, signed by the USA, USSR, Denmark and Norway  Unlike the South Pole, environmental protection in the Arctic is set within the context of populated territories. LEGO: Everything is not awesome > green peace campaign against the partnership between shell and lego  Green peace won on the mediatic stage and lego was forced to removed this partnership Note video: - Sad music - People and animal emerge by oil. - Cute animals - Santa use - Lego who cries. - To touch children and inner children The Arctic protection treaty  High seas currently covered by Sea Ice  Moratorium on fishing in the Central Arctic, signed by the “Arctic 5”+ 5 - Arctic 5 + Iceland  - EU (representing three Arctic states). - China, Japan, South Korea - “No fishing activities are allowed in the central arctic ocean before a regional fishery management organization (RFMO) is established, which will set science-based quotas and regulations for the fisheries. - 16-year moratorium: - Protects 2.8 million square kilometers of ocean from commercial fishing before it begins. - First legally binding multilateral agreement. 2. In seas and lands, the protection left to the discretion of States  Within the EEZ, Arctic states have sovereign rights over exploitation, as well as the protection and management of natural resources.  The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the largest protected area in the USA.  Oil and Gas companies have been lobbying for decades to open part of the protected area to drilling.  A political issue: Trump vs Biden Environmental protection: a pretext for tourism development  Russian Arctic National Park (2009: Servenaya Zemlya and the Franz Josef Archipelago)  The largest national park in Russia: it aims to protect both the enrvionrment, the natural habitats of species such as the polar bear, and the cultural heritage of the region.  In Greenland, UNESCO listings of certain sites also aim to promote tourism.  The largest national park in the world, covering the entire northeastern part of Greenland, spanning 1 million Km2. 3. Sanctuarize nature or protect the environment ? Paradox: environmental damage also means a source of income. Ban on import of seal products by the EU Commission. Greenpeace accused of “eco-colonialism”. Arctic Council: a more conciliatory stance on the debates? Protest against Greenpeace, Nuuk (Greenland) “Greenpeace apology to Inuit for impacts of seal campaign”  Inuit block application of EU and Greenpeace even has observers 4. The Arctic, a case study to test the relevance of the concept of human security   The lifestyle of indigenous peoples had already undergone transformations during WWII (settlement around military installations).  With climate change, hunting has become more difficult and more dangerous (fragility of thin ice).  Today: managing the economic social, and cultural consequences of the “Dutch disease.” Why the Arctic Treaty will not happen  2008: The European Commission proposes an Arctic Treaty  Outcry from the five coastal states  … and EU boycott at the Arctic council  “By virtue of their sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction in large areas of the Arctic Ocean the five coastal states are in a unique position to address these possibilities and challenges.”  Illulissat declaration 2008 Murmansk 300 000 hab vs concordia 12 persons in winter/ 70 summer