Chapter 3: Population PDF

Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material Chapter 3: Popula1on 1. Global populaIon, growth, age structure and urbanizaIon 1.1. Demographic trends Hans ROSLING on populaBon Swedish physician and staBsBcian (1948-2017) AcBve in trying to debunk mythes about populaBon...

Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material Chapter 3: Popula1on 1. Global populaIon, growth, age structure and urbanizaIon 1.1. Demographic trends Hans ROSLING on populaBon Swedish physician and staBsBcian (1948-2017) AcBve in trying to debunk mythes about populaBon Professor of InternaBonal Health at Karolinska InsBtute (Stockholm) Co-founder and chairman of the Gapminder FoundaBon (Trendalyzer so`ware system) Key demographic trends First: populaBon growth very small & in recent decades very fast growth!! Unprecedented populaBon o RelaBvely stable populaBon unBl the end of the 17th century o 1 billion in 1850, 2 in 1930, 3 in 1960, 4 in 1974, 5 in 1987, 6 in 1999, 7 in 2012, 8 in 2022; currently: 8.067 billion o UN projecBons for 2050: 9.7 billion (95% confidence interval: 9.4-10.1 billion) But it seems that it will reach a peak and slow down Largest growth is in the poorest countries Changing age structures o Most countries faced with the problem of ageing: proporBon of old people is increasing Increasing urbanizaBon and rise of megaciBes 1.2. Size and growth For the most part the growth rate was very low (there was an increase but very slow) Big change at the last two centuries and conBnue to rise unBl the second half of this century PopulaBon growth rates tend to decline, and they expect that it will keep going down In 2090 the populaBon growth will be 0 A`er that smaller than 0, so they expect that the populaBon will start to decline Remarcable in graph 2: a drop in growth rate: because of the great leap in China o Had the largest populaBon of the world o Policy where a lot of people died, massive hunger -> people wanted to have less children Today: most of the world populaBon lives in Asia (more than half) We will see that the proporBon of the world living in Africa will become much bigger UnBl recently China largest country (populaBon); now it has become India o China had reached a peak and is going down 19 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material US is the third largest country, but a`er that mostly countries from Sub-Sahara Afrika The World’s PIN code (Rosling) Devide the world into four regions The world’s pin code used to be 1114 o 1 billion in the Americas, 1 in Europe, 1 in Africa and 4 in Asia o Most of the populaBon in Asia The world’s pin code in 2050 will be 1125 o Total populaBon of 9 billion o An extra billion in Africa and Asia The populaBon of Africa has grown and conBnues to grow much faster than the populaBon of Europe and North America This may have significant consequences for migraBon from low-income to high-income countries Graph: How the populaBon in these regions has changed Green line: the natural increase in populaBon Yellow line: net migraBon High income countries: o Decrease of natural increase of populaBon o Increase of net-migraBon => The only reason populaBon increased is because of migraBon Low-income countries: o populaBon growth due to natural populaBon 1.3. Life expectancy (at birth) You can expect that if these pa;erns exist over Bme, how many years you can expect to live Today: o In Belgium you can expect to live unBl 80 o In Japan the highest life expectancy: ± 85 years o In Afrika very low life expectancy EvoluBon: o First (1800) everyone on earth lower than 40 years § High infant mortality (children that die in the first year of your life) § If you could survive the first years, you could have a higher life expectancy o In 1950: SBll a lot of red in Asia and Afrika; in other countries increased § Scandinavian countries already 70 years o Now: In every country increased § No life expectancy under 40 anymore Belgium in the begin of 1900 had the largest life expectancy on the planet In 2021 in almost all countries of the world has gone down -> pandemic 20 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material 1.4. Age structure In most countries there is a process of aging. The propor6on of those who are old are increasing, and the propor6on of those who are young are decreasing ProporBon of the populaBon that is 65 years old or older o Sub saraha afrika: 3%; large young populaBon § PopulaBon momentum: young people, means young woman and that means that the number of children that will be born will conBnue to increase o Europe: 18% o We see that it will conBnue to increase in the next years Now: much more young people, that will change over the years You can have different pa;erns on age composiBon Rapid growth (Nigeria) o Large populaBon growth (high birth rate) o Many more young people that old people o Piramid Slow growth (USA) o Smaller base o Number of births is diminishing o ConcentraBon in the middle o Those people are going to get older and older and in a few years the top will also become bigger Decline: Japan o Decreasing populaBon o People live long in Japan, but very few people are born 1.5. fer5lity FerBlity rate: measures the average number of births of woman over a lifeBme For a country with average death rates you need 2,1 births per woman to sustain the populaBon In the world the ferBlity rate is above 2,1 so the world populaBon will keep increasing o But with lesser amounts: a decreasing trend in the ferBlity rate o BUT declining trend in ferBlity rate does not mean a decline in births, more woman were born and they all make children o The number of woman that can have babies is sBll increasing It takes a long Bme before you see effects on the declining ferBlity rate Sub-Sahara afrika: ferBlity rate sBll high: between 4 and 5 21 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material 1.6. Impact of the pandemic The life expectancy at birth decreased In the past decades it has been increasing every year Before the pandemic 73 years; a`er the pandemic 71 In most countries, but not all o In Australia and Japan, the life expectancy at birth kept increasing o Because of strict measures taken o Fewer people died than before the pandemic On the graph you see a decline in 1960 o Because of the great leap forward in China -> death of a lot of people Today we see/ expect it will increase again Number of births went down in 2021 Postponed because of uncertainBes of the pandemic 1.7. Urbanisa5on Where do people live and how will this change? The rural populaBon has increased, but the urban populaBon much more Most people live in ciBes In north America and Europe the most part of the populaBon lives in ciBes In Sub Sahara Africa relaBvely more people live in rural areas Future: more an more people will live in rural area all over the world Problem: in countries where urbanisaBon is going fast you have slum areas (= people living in very poor condiBons, very concentrated, without acces to clean wather, electriciry etc) This is the case in a lot of African ciBes, India… In India a very large number of people Largest ciBes in the world: Tokyo, Delhi, Shanghai, Dhaka… Top of the ranking are ciBes in Asia In every city the populaBon is increasing (except from Tokyo and Osaka) In Africa and Asia: a lot of rapidly growing mega ciBes 2. Causes of populaIon growth Historical account (Western world) From 8000 BC (agricultural revoluBon) unBl the industrial revoluBon, populaBon size was held in check by resources (food producBon) – the so called “the Malthusian trap” o High birth rates, high death rates o PopulaBon hardly increased o Increases in populaBon beyond sustainable (subsistence) food producBon were checked simply by lack of food and widespread incidence of disease Industrial revoluBon (1750 unBl about 1945) o IniBally high birth rates, but declining death rates o Rapidly growing populaBon o Increases in agricultural producBvity and hygienic standards (manufacturing and urbanisaBon) led to a decline in child mortality and death rates 22 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material Postwar period 1945-1960s o DrasBc reducBon of death rates (public health, disease control) and high postwar birth rates (baby boom) o Rapid expansion of the populaBon in most Western countries Post 1960 o Gradual reducBon of birth rates in the developed world led to stable populaBon o Birth rates remained high in most of the developing world Most rich countries are in stage 4 3. Economic theory of the family PopulaBon and Economics Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1843) An Essay on the Principle of PopulaBon (1798) “(....) the power of populaBon is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.” o PopulaBon tend sto increase much faster than the food producBon -> this will lead to tension and will create checks PosiBve checks: hunger, disease, war o Death rate will increase -> decrease of populaBon PrevenBve checks: aborBon, birth control, prosBtuBon, postponement of marriage, celibacy o Limit the number of people that are born But will lead to misery, vice and moral restraint Economics of the family Malthusian revival (1950s-1970s) o Rapid increases of the populaBon a`er WOII o Paul Ehrlich, The PopulaBon Bomb (1968) o Donella Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth (1972) Facts Malthus did not anBcipate: o Agricultural producBvity grew faster than expected o PrevenBve checks (birth control) proved to be much more important Economics of the family (human capital theory, neo-Malthusian populaBon theory) o Theodore W. Schultz (Nobel prize 1979) o Gary S. Becker (Nobel prize 1992 23 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material New economics of populaBon Applied economic models to decisions families take in regard of having children of not A families calculate the costs and benefits of having children They see children are desirable “goods” o In poor countries, children are “resources” (agricultural and other labour) and “security” (old age) o In rich countries, children are “luxury goods” Children have a “price” (or net cost) o The Bme of women is a major cost of raising children (childbearing, care at a young age,...) o The value of women’s Bme rises with educaBon and female job opportuniBes, hence the “price” of children increases o The net cost of children in poor countries is relaBvely low compared with the net cost in rich countries Other things also play a role: Culture, educaBon, technology Religion and tradiBon are (sBll) important factors o E.g., ferBlity of second-generaBon migrants lower than ferBlity of parents but sBll higher than that of naBves o Most religions carry a paternalisBc tradiBon pushing women into tradiBonal roles (procreaBon, family care,...) EducaBon and employment opportuniBes for women increase the opportunity cost of Bme, increasing the “price” of children and decreasing ferBlity o EducaBon of women is key to reduce ferBlity! Other factors lowering birth rates are use of contracepBves, reduced child mortality, family planning, breast feeding, etc. o In some cultures woman keep breas~eeding unBl the child is 2 years old, usually in that period woman don’t get other children 4. “SubopImal” populaIon growth Age dependency The age dependency raBo measures the raBo of the dependent populaBon (which consists of the young, i.e. aged below 15, and the old, i.e. aged 65 or older) to the working-age populaBon (i.e. aged 15-64 years) It is the sum of the youth dependency raBo and the old dependency raBo Some countries have relaBvely many young people, while other countries have relaBvely many old people Large age dependency raBo o In Sub Sahara Africa because there are so many young people § The age dependency raBo keeps being dominated by the younger part of the populaBon and the older populaBon stays a Bny fracBon o In Japan because there are so many old people § As Bme moves on the older part of the populaBon has increased and the younger part had decreased Other indicator to calculate how many old/ young people: Median age splits the populaBon in two parts In European countries quite high: relaBvely few young people and much more old people 24 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material Too rapid populaBon growth (developing countries) High populaBon growth implies a large proporBon of young and mainly unproducBve people o ConsumpBon of the young exceeds their producBon § You have to support them, but they go to school so they don’t make a contribuBon to the society o Risks of impoverishment (health of children and women, malnutriBon, housing and overcrowding,...) A large populaBon of young and reasonably educated (and jobless) people creates a so-called “youth bulge” o = a demographic trend characterized by a disproporBonately large populaBon of young people, typically between the ages of 15 and 29, which can have significant social, economic, and poliBcal implicaBons within a society. o The share of young (educated and jobless) in total populaBon is a good predictor for poliBcal and social unrest (the youth bulge hypothesis) (Gunnar Heinsohn) o It also creates opportuniBes for a “demographic dividend” § If you have a lot of young people with new ideas there are opporBnuBes Too slow populaBon growth (rich countries) Slow growth means ageing and declining populaBons with large raBos of elderly (unproducBve) populaBon to the acBve populaBon => secular stagnaBon (Japan, EU, China?) Ageing puts a strain on government finances (pensions, health care) and lowers producBvity o You have to tax a part of the income earned by the acBve populaBon and give it to the older populaBon so they can conBnue to live o The taxes must saBsfy this equaBon to make sure you have enough funds to support your non-acBve populaBon (t = tax rate, w = wage rate, A = acBve populaBon, N = non-acBve populaBon, rho = replacement rate) Policies? Increase tax rate (t) OR lower replacement rate(rho) (lower the average pension) OR increase pension age (reduce N, increase A) Declining populaBon also means a loss of naBonal power, slower economic growth, possibly immigraBon and shi`s in naBonal idenBty (Europe, Japan...) 5. PopulaIon policies Policies controlling growth PopulaBon decisions illustrate the fallacy of composiBon o what is good for a single family (having children) is not necessarily good for the naBon or the planet The right of having a family is generally accepted, but most governments use “paternalisBc nudges” to sBmulate family planning o informaBon, contracepBves, aborBon, sterilisaBon, premiums and fines Strict measures of family size control (e.g., one child policy in China, two child policy in India) o`en lead to: o infanBcide (girls) § When there is a strict populaBon policies, where a family only can have 1 child, and if they only want a boy the girls are being murdered o sudden shi`s in populaBon age structure (China) 25 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material Policies promoBng growth Some countries have promoted (e.g., former military regimes in South America, dictatorship in Romania) or promote (e.g., Israel) populaBon growth o usually for strategic reasons Governmental policies to promote or limit birth rates – if not in line with the desires of the populaBon – are generally not very effecBve o and create a lot of hardship A variety of measures (paid maternity/paternity leave, tax breaks, child benefits,...) is tried in many Western countries to promote higher ferBlity o free or subsidised childcare seems to work in some Western countries (Sweden) 6. Future outlook Earth’s carrying capacity The carrying capacity (CC) is the upper bound of the populaBon (P) that can be sustained indefinitely in an area It is a dynamic concept Four basic pa;erns 1. CC and P growing conBnuously (technological progress) 2. StabilisaBon of P below a steady CC 3. Overshoot and oscillaBon 4. Overshoot and decline Joel Cohen’s quesBons on Earth’s carrying capacity How many at what average level of well-being? How many with what distribuBon of well-being? How many with what environment? How many with what kind of domesBc and internaBonal insBtuBons? How many with what technology? How many with what values, tastes, and fashions? ▪ How many for how long? What type of development is “sustainable” (see later)? The opBmum size of Earth’s populaBon Paul Ehrlich (The PopulaBon Bomb, 1968) argued that mankind was facing a demographic catastrophe with the rate of populaBon growth quickly outstripping growth in the supply of food and resources – the pessimisBc perspecBve Julian Simon (The UlBmate Resource, 1981) argued that the ulBmate resource on Earth is the human mind and that human ingenuity (technology) always surpassed expectaBons – the opBmisBc perspecBve Joel Cohen argues that there is no way to esBmate the opBmum size of human populaBon, as there are no scienBfic answers to his quesBons The future? “If current predicBons of populaBon growth prove accurate and pa;erns of human acBvity remain unchanged, science and technology may not be able to prevent either irreversible degradaBon of the environment or conBnued poverty for much of the world.” (NaBonal Academy of Sciences and Royal Society of London, PopulaBon Growth, Resource ConsumpBon, and a Sustainable World, 1992) “The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by scepBcs or cynics, whose horizons are limited by the obvious realiBes. We need men who can dream of things that never were and ask, why not.” (J.F. Kennedy, 1963) 26 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material 7. To sum up PopulaBon pressure on the planet’s resources was never higher Young (educated and unemployed) populaBons (a youth bulge) are conducive to poliBcal strife and social instability Ageing populaBons in the rich world (and emerging world) imply slow growth and pressure on public finances The demographer’s theory of phases describes historic pa;erns of growth quite well Neo-Malthusian theory performs well in predicBng what happens to ferBlity if women are educated and have job opportuniBes As Joel Cohen’s quesBons show, the carrying capacity of earth is difficult to pin down 27 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?  Stuvia.com - The Marketplace to Buy and Sell your Study Material 28 Downloaded by: carolinaalmeidadj | [email protected] Want to earn $1.236 Distribution of this document is illegal extra per year?