Exam 1 Part 2 - PDF

It took most of human history for our population to reach 1 billion—and just over 200 years to reach 8 billion. But growth has begun slowing, as women have fewer babies on average. When will our global population peak? And how can we minimize our impact on Earth’s resources, even as we approach 10 b...

It took most of human history for our population to reach 1 billion—and just over 200 years to reach 8 billion. But growth has begun slowing, as women have fewer babies on average. When will our global population peak? And how can we minimize our impact on Earth’s resources, even as we approach 10 billion? Global Population Estimates Vary but Trends Are Clear: Population Growth Is Slowing U.S. Census Bureau Using data from the International Database, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates the world population hit 8 billion on September 26. Emphasis on the word estimates. There are many sources of uncertainty in estimating the global population, and it’s unlikely this population milestone was reached on that exact date. For example, the United Nations (U.N.) Population Division estimates the world population reached 8 billion on November 15, 2022. Why the discrepancy? Many of the world’s most populous countries (such as India and Nigeria), haven’t conducted a census in over 10 years, and many countries lack civil registration and vital statistics systems that accurately record births and deaths among their population. Given the lack of precise population data worldwide, the U.N. and Census Bureau estimates are not that far apart, and both imply similar overall trends. The rate of growth peaked decades ago in the 1960s and has been declining since and is projected to continue declining. While it took 12.5 years for the world to go from 7 billion to 8 billion people, we project it will likely take 14.1 years to go from 8 billion to 9 billion, and another 16.4 years to go from 9 billion to 10 billion. Despite a slowdown, we project the world population will reach 10.2 billion by 2060. You can read more about population breakdowns here - https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/11/world-population-estimated-eight-billion.html. How does the growing global population and increasing consumption affect biodiversity? Since the middle of the 20th Century, the human population has grown dramatically from around 2.6 billion to reach 7.8 billion in 2021. Housing and feeding so many people has accelerated the destruction of natural habitats, while higher levels of consumption, particularly in some richer parts of the world, have also increased the exploitation of natural resources and led to growing levels of pollution. Perhaps the greatest threat to biodiversity from a growing population is from the rapidly increasing per capita consumption. There has been an unprecedented increase in consumption, with about 10% of the world's population in the G7 countries consuming 40% of the Earth's biological productivity. Increasing levels of meat consumption, for example, have required more land for livestock while burgeoning water use has increased the risk of drought in some regions. Similar patterns can be seen in the demand for other natural resources. As human populations have grown, habitat destruction such as deforestation also increases to make way for agricultural land. Between 1962 and 2017, it is estimated that 340 million hectares of new croplands were created globally and 470 million hectares – around half the area of China - of natural ecosystem were converted into pastures. Urban sprawl, along with the associated transport infrastructure, can radically transform habitats, increase pollution, raise ambient temperatures and increase the risk of non-native species being introduced by human movements. While the International Union for Conservation of Nature predicts that the numbers of threatened species is likely to increase rapidly in regions where human population growth rates are high, the demands of consumers also impact biodiversity in areas far away. International trade is reported to be responsible for 30% of global species threats and one study found that 17% of total biodiversity loss occurs due to the commodities that are produced for export to other parts of the world – largely the rich, industrialized nations. With global population expected to reach 10.9 billion by the end of the century, the impact that humans have on biodiversity is expected to accelerate unless steps are taken to reduce consumption and modify our current global food system. In particular the people of the poorer lower and middle income countries will also wish to increase their consumption over the coming decades in order to raise their standards of living. The richer industrialized countries will need to take steps to reduce their high levels of consumption to compensate for this. IPAT - Measuring Our Rising Impact As a result of this massive expansion of our presence on Earth, scientists Ehrlich, John Holdren, and Barry Commoner in the early 1970s devised a formula to measure our rising impact, called IPAT, in which (I)mpact equals (P)opulation multiplied by (A)ffluence multiplied by (T)echnology. The IPAT formula, they said, can help us realize that our cumulative impact on the planet is not just in population numbers, but also in the increasing amount of natural resources each person uses. The graphic above, which visualizes IPAT, shows that the rise in our cumulative impact since 1950—rising population combined with our expanding demand for resources—has been profound. IPAT is a useful reminder that population, consumption, and technology all help shape our environmental impact, but it shouldn't be taken too literally. University of California ecologist John Harte has said that IPAT "... conveys the notion that population is a linear multiplier.... In reality, population plays a much more dynamic and complex role in shaping environmental quality." One of our biggest impacts is agriculture. Whether we can grow enough food sustainably for an expanding world population also presents an urgent challenge, and this becomes only more so in light of these new population projections. Where will food for an additional 2 to 3 billion people come from when we are already barely keeping up with 8 billion? Such questions underpinned a 2014 National Geographic series on the future of food. As climate change damages crop yields and extreme weather disrupts harvests, growing enough food for our expanding population has become what The 2014 World Food Prize Symposium called "the greatest challenge in human history." Marine debris is one of the most pervasive global threats to the health of the ocean and our waterways. It is an issue of growing local, regional, national, and international concern and solutions need to involve all of us, regardless if we live near the ocean or not. To learn more, watch the introductory video, Marine Debris: Introduction to Marine Debris in the Global Ocean. Every year, millions of tons of plastic waste becomes marine debris. This narrated video, produced by the Florida State University in collaboration with NOAA, discusses the following topics: ​ What happens to plastic marine debris once it is in the world's ocean? ​ Where does plastic marine debris accumulate? ​ How can everyone help address this problem? A team of scientists from the Florida State University used data about the types, amounts, and sources of plastic marine debris and combined these data with what is known about ocean currents, wind, and waves, to create the Global Marine Debris Model to visualize the movement of plastic debris in the ocean environment. The model shows the potential movement of marine debris throughout the ocean and areas of concentration such as gyres and hot spots. Finally, ideas on how we all can help are presented. The video shows how nations across the globe are connected by the ocean, that marine debris is a global problem caused by people, and can also be solved by all of us playing a part. These efforts will require a coordinated global effort to solve this global problem. what's wrong with the study that shows red wine can reduce your chance of breast cancer? alcohol can actually increase your risk of breast cancer how much water does it actually take to produce your morning latte? 200 liters What did the "placebo" effect mean for students in the fish oil study? our beliefs and exceptions, the cultural meaning of a treatment what was the human population in 2011 (this was a major milestone reached) 7 billion what did a new UN study show about human population growth? a flattening of population growth is not going to happen soon without rapid fertility declines or a reduction in the number of children per mother Are we having an impact on the ocean? After all they are huge, covering 70% of the earths surface. yes how many earths do we need to accommodate the resources we are current using globally? 1.8 earths Question - How much energy was produced from renewable sources in 2023? 30% ​ 1. How can a smaller population be just as (or even more) destructive to our planet?​ A smaller population can still be highly destructive if its members consume resources at a high rate, utilize unsustainable technologies, or engage in environmentally damaging practices. This is because the per capita impact can be magnified when a smaller population has a large ecological footprint due to excessive consumption and resource depletion. For example, a wealthy nation with a relatively small population might have a significantly greater impact on the environment than a poorer nation with a larger population due to its higher consumption of resources like fossil fuels and energy. Additionally, advanced technology, while often seen as a positive force, can sometimes exacerbate environmental problems if not used responsibly. For instance, the development of new technologies can lead to increased resource extraction or the creation of new pollutants if not accompanied by sustainable practices. ​ 2. In China, population has ____, while consumption has ____ resulting in a _______impact.​ In China, "population has stabilized" (or even slightly decreased) while "consumption has  increased significantly," resulting in a "large environmental impact." This is because, despite a relatively stable population size, the increased consumption per capita has led to a substantial rise in greenhouse gas emissions, resource depletion, and other environmental pressures. China's rapid economic growth has fueled this increased consumption, putting a strain on the planet's resources and contributing to climate change. ​ 3. To improve our living standards it would be best to ______________.​ To improve living standards sustainably, it would be best to focus on promoting sustainable development, which includes transitioning to renewable energy sources, reducing resource consumption, adopting circular economy practices, investing in green technologies, and prioritizing equitable access to resources. This approach aims to improve quality of life without compromising the environment for future generations. Other important considerations would be fostering responsible consumption patterns, promoting education and awareness about environmental issues, and implementing sustainable policies that encourage environmentally friendly practices. according to the "Story of Stuff" framework, the steps in the Materials Economy are: Extraction, Production, Distribution, Consumption, and Disposal; regarding global fisheries, many are considered overexploited or collapsing; the real cost of making stuff is often not fully captured in its price, including environmental and social impacts; a significant portion of harvested seafood, estimated around 30%, is discarded within six months; and currently, humans generate a vast amount of daily waste, significantly more than in the past, with the issue growing rapidly. Kennesaw State University (KSU) has many sustainability initiatives, including waste management, recycling, and research. To understand what science is, just look around you. What do you see? Perhaps, your hand on the mouse, a computer screen, papers, ballpoint pens, the family cat, the sun shining through the window …. Science is, in one sense, our knowledge of all that — all the stuff that is in the universe: from the tiniest subatomic particles in a single atom of the metal in your computer's circuits, to the nuclear reactions that formed the immense ball of gas that is our sun, to the complex chemical interactions and electrical fluctuations within your own body that allow you to read and understand these words. But just as importantly, science is also a reliable process by which we learn about all that stuff in the universe. However, science is different from many other ways of learning because of the way it is done. Science relies on testing ideas with evidence gathered from the natural world. This website will help you learn more about science as a process of learning about the natural world and access the parts of science that affect your life.​ ​ Science helps satisfy the natural curiosity with which we are all born: why is the sky blue, how did the leopard get its spots, what is a solar eclipse? With science, we can answer such questions without resorting to magical explanations. And science can lead to technological advances, as well as helping us learn about enormously important and useful topics, such as our health, the environment, and natural hazards. Without science, the modern world would not be modern at all, and we still have much to learn. Millions of scientists all over the world are working to solve different parts of the puzzle of how the universe works, peering into its nooks and crannies, deploying their microscopes, telescopes, and other tools to unravel its secrets.​ ​ Science is complex and multi-faceted, but the most important characteristics of science are straightforward. ​ Science focuses exclusively on the natural world, and does not deal with supernatural explanations.  ​ Science is a way of learning about what is in the natural world, how the natural world works, and how the natural world got to be the way it is. It is not simply a collection of facts; rather it is a path to understanding. ​ Scientists work in many different ways, but all science relies on testing ideas by figuring out what expectations are generated by an idea and making observations to find out whether those expectations hold true. ​ Accepted scientific ideas are reliable because they have been subjected to rigorous testing, but as new evidence is acquired and new perspectives emerge these ideas can be revised. ​ Science is a community endeavor. It relies on a system of checks and balances, which helps ensure that science moves in the direction of greater accuracy and understanding. This system is facilitated by diversity within the scientific community, which offers a broad range of perspectives on scientific ideas.​ To many, science may seem like an arcane, ivory-towered institution — but that impression is based on a misunderstanding of science. In fact: ​ Science affects your life everyday in all sorts of different ways. ​ Science can be fun and is accessible to everyone. ​ You can apply an understanding of how science works to your everyday life. Anyone can become a scientist — of the amateur or professional variety. ​ Where to begin?​ Here are some places you may want to start your investigation: What is Science?​ The word "science" probably brings to mind many different pictures: a fat textbook, white lab coats and microscopes, an astronomer peering through a telescope, a naturalist in the rainforest, Einstein's equations scribbled on a chalkboard, the launch of the space shuttle, bubbling beakers …. All of those images reflect some aspect of science, but none of them provides a full picture because science has so many facets: ​ Science is both a body of knowledge and a process. In school, science may sometimes seem like a collection of isolated and static facts listed in a textbook, but that's only a small part of the story. Just as importantly, science is also a process of discovery that allows us to link isolated facts into coherent and comprehensive understandings of the natural world. ​ Science is exciting. Science is a way of discovering what's in the universe and how those things work today, how they worked in the past, and how they are likely to work in the future. Scientists are motivated by the thrill of seeing or figuring out something that no one has before. ​ Science is useful. The knowledge generated by science is powerful and reliable. It can be used to develop new technologies, treat diseases, and deal with many other sorts of problems. ​ Science is ongoing. Science is continually refining and expanding our knowledge of the universe, and as it does, it leads to new questions for future investigation. Science will never be "finished." ​ Science is a global human endeavor. People all over the world participate in the process of science. And you can too! ​ Discovery: The spark for science​ "Eureka!" or "aha!" moments may not happen frequently, but they are often experiences that drive science and scientists. For a scientist, every day holds the possibility of discovery — of coming up with a brand new idea or of observing something that no one has ever seen before. Vast bodies of knowledge have yet to be built and many of the most basic questions about the universe have yet to be answered ​ What causes gravity? ​ How do tectonic plates move around on Earth's surface? ​ How do our brains store memories? ​ How do water molecules interact with each other? We don't know the complete answers to these and an overwhelming number of other questions, but the prospect of answering them beckons science forward. EVERYDAY SCIENCE QUESTIONS​ Scientific questions can seem complex (e.g., what chemical reactions allow cells to break the bonds in sugar molecules), but they don't have to be. You've probably posed many perfectly valid scientific questions yourself: how can airplanes fly, why do cakes rise in the oven, why do apples turn brown once they're cut? You can discover the answers to many of these "everyday" science questions in your local library, but for others, science may not have the answers yet, and answering such questions can lead to astonishing new discoveries. For example, we still don't know much about how your brain remembers to buy milk at the grocery store. Just as we're motivated to answer questions about our everyday experiences, scientists confront such questions at all scales, including questions about the very nature of the universe. To learn about how others have gotten involved in science and how you can develop your own scientific outlook on the world, check out this side trip: Think science Discoveries, new questions, and new ideas are what keep scientists going and awake at night, but they are only one part of the picture; the rest involves a lot of hard (and sometimes tedious) work. In science, discoveries and ideas must be verified by multiple lines of evidence and then integrated into the rest of science, a process which can take many years. And often, discoveries are not bolts from the blue. A discovery may itself be the result of many years of work on a particular problem, as illustrated by Henrietta Leavitt's stellar discovery … STELLAR SURPRISES Astronomers had long known about the existence of variable stars — stars whose brightness changes over time, slowly shifting between brilliant and dim — when, in 1912, Henrietta Leavitt announced a remarkable (and totally unanticipated) discovery about them. For these stars, the length of time between their brightest and dimmest points seemed to be related to their overall brightness: slower cycling stars are more luminous. At the time, no one knew why that was the case, but nevertheless, the discovery allowed astronomers to infer the distances to far-off stars, and hence, to figure out the size of our own galaxy. Leavitt's observation was a true surprise — a discovery in the classic sense — but one that came only after she'd spent years carefully comparing thousands of photos of these specks of light, looking for patterns in the darkness.​ Read more about Henrietta Leavitt's investigation of variable stars.​ ​ The process of scientific discovery is not limited to professional scientists working in labs. The everyday experience of deducing that your car won't start because of a bad fuel pump, or of figuring out that the centipedes in your backyard prefer shady rocks shares fundamental similarities with classically scientific discoveries like working out DNA's double helix. These activities all involve making observations and analyzing evidence — and they all provide the satisfaction of finding an answer that makes sense of all the facts. In fact, some psychologists argue that the way individual humans learn (especially as children) bears a lot of similarity to the progress of science: both involve making observations, considering evidence, testing ideas, and holding on to those that work. A science checklist So what, exactly, is science? Well, science turns out to be difficult to define precisely. (Philosophers have been arguing about it for decades!) The problem is that the term "science" applies to a remarkably broad set of human endeavors, from developing lasers, to analyzing the factors that affect human decision-making.​ To get a grasp on what science is, we'll look at a checklist that summarizes key characteristics of science and compare it to a prototypical case of science in action: Ernest Rutherford's investigation into the structure of the atom. Then, we'll look at some other cases that are less "typical" examples of science to see how they measure up and what characteristics they share. This checklist provides a guide for what sorts of activities are encompassed by science, but since the boundaries of science are not clearly defined, the list should not be interpreted as all-or-nothing. Some of these characteristics are particularly important to science (e.g., all of science must ultimately rely on evidence), but others are less central. For example, some perfectly scientific investigations may run into a dead end and not lead to ongoing research. Use this checklist as a reminder of the usual features of science. If something doesn't meet most of these characteristics, it shouldn't be treated as science.​ ​ Science asks questions about the natural world Science studies the natural world. This includes the components of the physical universe around us like atoms, plants, ecosystems, people, societies and galaxies, as well as the natural forces at work on those things. In contrast, science cannot study supernatural forces and explanations. For example, the idea that a supernatural afterlife exists is not a part of science since this afterlife operates outside the rules that govern the natural world.​ ​ Science can investigate all sorts of questions: ​ When did the oldest rocks on Earth form? ​ Through what chemical reactions do fungi get energy from the nutrients they absorb? ​ What causes Jupiter's red spot ​ How does smog move through the atmosphere? Very few questions are off-limits in science — but the sorts of answers science can provide are limited. Science can only answer in terms of natural phenomena and natural processes. When we ask ourselves questions like, What is the meaning of life? and Does the soul exist? we generally expect answers that are outside of the natural world — hence, outside of science. A Science Prototype: Rutherford and the Atom​ ​ In the early 1900s, Ernest Rutherford studied (among other things) the organization of the atom — the fundamental particle of the natural world. Though atoms cannot be seen with the naked eye, they can be studied with the tools of science since they are part of the natural world. Rutherford's story continues as we examine each item on the Science Checklist. ​ Picture yourself in a rural setting with villages surrounded by grassland open to herdsmen to graze their animals. This "commons" is available to all without restriction. Imagine that the common pasture is supporting the maximum number of sheep that it can. There is just enough grass to keep all the sheep well-fed, but no more. Adding sheep would mean less food for each. However, for each herdsman, it appears to be an advantage to increase the size of his herd. More sheep means more wool and more income. There is also a disadvantage in doing this: there will be slightly less food for each of his sheep. But this disadvantage appears small since it is spread among all the sheep, including those of the other herdsmen. So from the point of view of each herdsman, the gain is great and the loss is small. The tragedy is that when all herdsmen act this way, the small losses add up to a disaster for everyone. The Tragedy of the Traffic Jam A modern example of a "tragedy of the commons" is traffic jams in major cities. Many of you may be familiar with this one - I-85 in Atlanta. A public good gets overused and lessened in value for everyone. Each individual trying to get to work quickly uses the freeway because it is the fastest route. In the beginning, each additional person on the highway does not slow down traffic because there is enough "slack" in the system to absorb the extra users. At some critical level, however, each additional driver brings about a decrease in the average speed. Eventually, there are so many drivers that traffic crawls at a snail's pace. Each person seeking to minimize driving time has in fact conspired to guarantee a long drive for everyone. Failing Fisheries We see this same pattern in fisheries around the world. The oceans are not owned by individual fishermen or controlled by countries. They provide a common resource of fish. As the number of fishing boats increases year after year, the total catch increases. Sounds good, right? However, as the total catch increases, it reduces the fish population's ability to restore itself.​ Eventually the total individual and collective catch drops. This puts more financial pressure on fishermen to try to catch even more fish. Catching more fish only erodes the restoration capacity of the fish population even more. Waste in Our Waterways Image: NOAA - Savannah Riverkeeper is addressing waterborne litter that affects Georgia’s Ogeechee and Savannah River watersheds using proven trash interception devices, comprehensive data collection, and community engagement. In some cases, the problem is not one of taking too much from a common resource. Instead, the problem is putting too much in. With a small population, it is not a problem to dump waste into a river. Waterways cleanse themselves with time. As long as the load of waste is not too great, the river can maintain its clean state. But if there is too much waste, the river becomes polluted. People can no longer drink the water. They may not even be able to safely swim or go boating in it. Greenhouse Gases This is the way it is with the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is constantly going into the atmosphere and out of it in the carbon cycle. The oceans and forests absorb CO2. With industrialization, factories, cars, and power plants pump CO2 into the atmosphere faster than it can be absorbed. The commons is being overwhelmed. Think of the Earth's atmosphere as a tremendous bathtub. Imagine the concentration of greenhouse gases as the water in the bathtub. Water flows into the tub like CO2 goes into the atmosphere. Like the water running down the drain, CO2 is removed from the atmosphere. If the rate of flow from the faucet into the tub is equal to what is going down the drain, the water level remains the same. If you turn up the faucet, the level rises and the tub may overflow. Right now our atmospheric bathtub is filling twice as fast as it is draining. What Can Be Done? The term 'Tragedy of the Commons' was coined by Garrett Hardin in an article he wrote in 1968. He says that problems that fall into this category have no technical solutions. They require changes in human attitudes and behavior. In the case of climate change, the solutions are both behavioral and technical. We can use energy more efficiently, increase the use of alternative energy sources that do not produce CO2, and capture and store the CO2 that we do produce. So what's the problem? The problem is that individuals acting in their own interests feel immediate gain from their actions. But the losses from the impact of global warming are not felt immediately. So I may drive a large car because I feel more comfortable in it. The discomfort I will feel when sea levels rise or storms intensify may be decades away. And, I don't see any immediate connection between my actions and those consequences. In fact, if I were the only one driving a big car, there would be no negative consequences. Like the herdsman who adds a sheep to his flock, the benefit is clear and immediate while the loss is diluted and delayed. But when many herdsmen act this way, they all suffer. A solution requires people to collectively make a decision to alter the behavior of everyone, including themselves. One way to do this is to cause climate-friendly actions to have immediate positive results. For example, in the Sleipner gas field in the North Sea, the tax policy of the Norwegian government makes it economically advantageous to capture and store CO2 rather than release it into the atmosphere. The mechanism is simple: there is a tax on CO2 that is released. Sure, it costs money to capture and store CO2. But in this situation it costs more not to. Reflect on the way the population is changing where you live. What issues related to population growth can you relate to in your part of the world?​ What was the human population in 2010 and 2023 (these were major milestones reached).​ How have we reached the current level of development and well-being that many high-income countries enjoy?​ What is the biggest indicator of countries emitting the largest per capita quantities of GHGs?​ What will sustainability require of us as we move forward? The global population is undergoing rapid growth and regional demographic shifts, with aging populations in developed regions posing economic and social challenges. Key impacts include: 1.​ Workforce & Economy – Labor shortages may slow productivity, prompting higher retirement ages and immigration policies.  2.​ Healthcare Strain – Rising medical needs increase costs and demand for healthcare professionals, driving innovation in elder care. 3.​ Social Security Reforms – Pension systems face sustainability issues, leading to tax increases or benefit reductions. 4.​ Migration Trends – Younger workers move to cities or abroad, prompting immigration adjustments. 5.​ Technology & Policy – Automation mitigates labor gaps, while family-friendly policies aim to boost birth rates. Are we having an impact on the ocean? After all they are huge, covering 70% of the earths surface. Yes, 40% of the worlds oceans are heavily impacted by human acitivites. Largest Ecological Footprints: The U.S., Canada, Australia, and oil-rich nations like Qatar and UAE have the highest per capita footprints. Smallest Ecological Footprints: Countries like Bangladesh, Haiti, and many in sub-Saharan Africa have the lowest footprints. Personal Reflection: Comparing personal consumption to global averages helps assess sustainability and potential lifestyle changes. Importance of Knowledge: Understanding ecological impact promotes sustainable choices and policy advocacy. Biocapacity & Deficit: Biocapacity is a region’s ability to regenerate resources; a deficit occurs when consumption exceeds regeneration. U.S. 2019 Data: The U.S. had a high ecological footprint (~8 gha per person) and a biocapacity deficit. Earths Needed: Globally, we use about 1.75 Earths; the U.S. alone requires ~5 Earths to sustain its resource consumption.