EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES Module PDF

This module was prepared by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education (MOSHE) in collaboration with these three Universities Bahir Dar University (Since, 1963), Adama Science & Technology University (Since, 1993), Addis Ababa Science & Technology University (Since, 2011) Introduction to Emerging Technologies Course Module (EMTE1011/1012) Developed By: Tesfahunegn Minwuyelet (MSC) & Makonnen Wagaw (Ph.D.) CH-1, 4 & 5 from BDU Girma Debela (MSc) CH-2 from ASTU Yonnasa Tesfaye (MSc) CH-3, 6 & 7 from AASTU Compiled & Edited By: Tesfahunegn Minwuyelet (MSc) November 2019 Module Preface This resource module is designed and developed in support of the Introduction to Emerging Technology Curriculum. It provides learning resources and teaching ideas. Dear students, in chapter one you have been studied about the evolution of technologies, the role of data for emerging technologies, programmable devices, human to machine interaction and future trends in emerging technologies within week 1-2. In chapter two, data science and Big data have been studied, how we collect, analyzed, stored and used. The advantages and disadvantages of big data analysis are also studied within weeks 3-4. In chapter three, you have been studied about introduction to Artificial Intelligence; its history; different types of AI; its application in health, education, agriculture, and business. Finally, different tools and platforms used for AI and sample AI examples were studied within week 5-7. In chapter four, the overview of the Internet of Things; its history; its pros and cons, its architecture, its application in the smart home, smart city, smart grid and smart farming. In the end, all IoT tools and platforms, as well as the sample applications, are well studied within weeks 8-10. Chapter five is about augmented reality (AR), its difference and similarity from virtual reality and mixed reality, how it works, its architecture, and applications were studied within weeks 11-12. Chapter six is all about the connection of emerging technologies with professional ethics, privacy, accountability, trust. Finally, the threats and challenges of the technologies have been discussed within week 13. In chapter seven, other emerging technologies that are not covered in detail are discussed. Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Blockchain technology, Cloud and quantum computing, Autonomic computing, Computer vision, Embedded systems, Cybersecurity, and Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing) were studied within week 14-15. 1 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction to Emerging Technologies...................................................................................... 8 1.1 Evolution of Technologies............................................................................................................ 8 1.1.1 Introduction to the Industrial Revolution (IR).................................................................... 10 1.1.2 The Most Important Inventions of the Industrial Revolution............................................. 11 1.1.3 Historical Background (IR 1.0, IR 2.0, IR 3.0)................................................................... 11 1.2 Role of Data for Emerging Technologies................................................................................... 14 1.3 Enabling devices and network (Programmable devices)............................................................ 15 1.3.1 List of some Programmable devices................................................................................... 16 1.4 Human to Machine Interaction................................................................................................... 17 1.4.1 Disciplines Contributing to Human-Computer Interaction (HCI)...................................... 17 1.5 Future Trends in Emerging Technologies................................................................................... 18 1.5.1 Emerging technology trends in 2019.................................................................................. 18 1.5.2 Some emerging technologies that will shape the future of you and your business............. 18 Chapter One Review Questions................................................................................................... 20 Chapter 2: Data Science........................................................................................................................... 21 2.1. An Overview of Data Science.......................................................................................................... 21 2.1.1. What are data and information?.................................................................................................... 23 2.1.2. Data Processing Cycle.............................................................................................................. 23 2.3 Data types and their representation................................................................................................... 24 2.3.1. Data types from Computer programming perspective.............................................................. 24 2.3.2. Data types from Data Analytics perspective....................................................................... 25 2.4. Data value Chain......................................................................................................................... 26 2.4.1. Data Acquisition....................................................................................................................... 27 2.4.2. Data Analysis............................................................................................................................ 27 2.4.3. Data Curation............................................................................................................................ 27 2.4.4. Data Storage.............................................................................................................................. 27 2.4.5. Data Usage................................................................................................................................ 28 2.5. Basic concepts of big data........................................................................................................... 28 2.5.1. What Is Big Data?..................................................................................................................... 28 2.5.2. Clustered Computing and Hadoop Ecosystem.................................................................... 29 2.5.2.1. Clustered Computing...................................................................................................... 29 2.5.2.2. Hadoop and its Ecosystem.............................................................................................. 30 2 2.5.3. Big Data Life Cycle with Hadoop....................................................................................... 32 Chapter Two Review Questions................................................................................................... 34 Chapter 3: Artificial Intelligence (AI)..................................................................................................... 35 3.1. What is Artificial Intelligence (AI)............................................................................................. 35 3.1.1. Need for Artificial Intelligence........................................................................................... 38 3.1.2. Goals of Artificial Intelligence............................................................................................ 38 3.1.3. What Comprises to Artificial Intelligence?......................................................................... 38 3.1.4. Advantages of Artificial Intelligence.................................................................................. 39 3.1.5. Disadvantages of Artificial Intelligence.............................................................................. 40 3.2. History of AI............................................................................................................................... 41 3.3. Levels of AI................................................................................................................................ 44 3.4. Types of AI................................................................................................................................. 47 3.4.1. How humans think.............................................................................................................. 49 3.4.2. Mapping human thinking to artificial intelligence components.......................................... 50 3.5. Influencers of artificial intelligence............................................................................................ 51 3.5.1. Big Data.............................................................................................................................. 51 3.5.2. Cloud computing and application programming interfaces................................................ 54 3.5.3. The emergence of data science........................................................................................... 55 3.6. Applications of AI....................................................................................................................... 55 3.7. AI tools and platforms................................................................................................................. 57 3.8. Semple AI application................................................................................................................. 59 Chapter Three Review Questions................................................................................................ 62 Chapter 4: Internet of Things (IoT)........................................................................................................ 63 4.1. Overview of IoT............................................................................................................................... 63 4.1.1. What is IoT?.............................................................................................................................. 64 4.1.2. History of IoT........................................................................................................................... 66 4.1.3. IoT − Advantages...................................................................................................................... 67 4.1.4. IoT – Disadvantages............................................................................................................ 68 4.1.5. Challenges of IoT................................................................................................................ 69 4.2. How does it work?...................................................................................................................... 69 4.2.1. Architecture of IoT.................................................................................................................... 70 4.2.2. Devices and Networks.............................................................................................................. 72 4.3. IoT Tools and Platforms............................................................................................................. 74 3 4.3.1. IoT Based Smart Home............................................................................................................. 78 4.3.2. IoT Based Smart City............................................................................................................... 79 4.3.3. IoT Based Smart Farming......................................................................................................... 80 Chapter Four Review Questions.................................................................................................. 81 Chapter 5: Augmented Reality (AR)....................................................................................................... 82 5.1. Overview of augmented reality........................................................................................................ 82 5.2. Virtual reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR) vs Mixed reality (MR)........................................... 83 5.2.1. Virtual Reality (VR).................................................................................................................. 83 5.2.2. Augmented Reality (AR).......................................................................................................... 84 5.2.3. Mixed Reality (MR).................................................................................................................. 85 5.3. The architecture of AR Systems...................................................................................................... 87 5.4. Applications of AR Systems............................................................................................................ 89 5.4.1. AR In education........................................................................................................................ 89 5.4.2. AR In Medicine......................................................................................................................... 90 5.4.3. AR In Entertainment................................................................................................................. 92 Chapter Five Review Questions................................................................................................... 94 Chapter 6: ETHICS AND PROFESSIONALISM OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES................. 95 6.1. Technology and ethics................................................................................................................ 95 6.2. New ethical questions............................................................................................................. 96 6.2.1. General ethical principles.................................................................................................... 97 6.2.2. Professional responsibilities................................................................................................ 98 6.2.3. Professional leadership principles....................................................................................... 98 6.3. Digital privacy............................................................................................................................ 99 6.3.1. Information Privacy............................................................................................................ 99 6.3.2. Communication Privacy.................................................................................................... 100 6.3.3. Individual Privacy............................................................................................................. 100 6.3.4. Some digital privacy principles......................................................................................... 101 6.4. Accountability and trust............................................................................................................ 101 6.5. Treats and challenges................................................................................................................ 102 6.5.1. Ethical and regulatory challenges..................................................................................... 102 6.5.2. Treats................................................................................................................................. 105 Chapter Six Review Questions................................................................................................... 107 Chapter 7: Other emerging technologies.............................................................................................. 108 4 7.1. Nanotechnology........................................................................................................................ 108 7.1.1. How it started.................................................................................................................... 108 7.1.2. Fundamental concepts in nanoscience and nanotechnology............................................. 109 7.1.3. Applications of nanotechnology:...................................................................................... 111 7.2. Biotechnology........................................................................................................................... 111 7.2.1. History............................................................................................................................... 112 7.2.2. Application of biotechnology............................................................................................ 113 7.3. Blockchain technology.............................................................................................................. 113 7.3.1. History............................................................................................................................... 116 7.3.2. Blockchain Explained....................................................................................................... 116 7.3.3. The Three Pillars of Blockchain Technology................................................................... 117 7.3.4. How Blockchain Works.................................................................................................... 119 7.3.5. Why do people use the peer-to-peer network?.................................................................. 121 7.3.6. Application of blockchain................................................................................................. 121 7.4. Cloud and quantum computing................................................................................................. 123 7.4.1. Cloud computing............................................................................................................... 123 7.4.2. Advantages of cloud computing........................................................................................ 124 7.4.3. Quantum computing.......................................................................................................... 124 7.4.4. Advantages of quantum computing.................................................................................. 125 7.5. Autonomic computing (AC)..................................................................................................... 126 7.5.1. Characteristics of Autonomic Systems............................................................................. 126 7.6. Computer vision........................................................................................................................ 128 7.6.1. History............................................................................................................................... 128 7.6.2. Definition.......................................................................................................................... 128 7.6.3. How computer vision works............................................................................................. 129 7.6.4. Applications of computer vision....................................................................................... 130 7.7. Embedded systems.................................................................................................................... 131 7.7.1. Advantages and disadvantages of embedded system........................................................ 132 7.7.2. Basic Structure of an Embedded System.......................................................................... 132 7.8. Cybersecurity............................................................................................................................ 133 7.8.1. Definition.......................................................................................................................... 133 7.8.2. Cybersecurity measures.................................................................................................... 134 7.8.3. Types of cybersecurity threats.......................................................................................... 134 5 7.8.4. Benefits of cybersecurity.................................................................................................. 135 7.8.5. Cybersecurity vendors....................................................................................................... 135 7.9. Additive manufacturing (3D Printing)...................................................................................... 136 7.9.1. 3D Printing: It's All About the Printer.............................................................................. 136 7.9.2. Additive Manufacturing: A Bytes-to-Parts Supply Chain................................................ 137 Chapter Seven Review Questions.............................................................................................. 138 6 Table of Figures Figure 1.1 steam engine.............................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 1.2 Electricity transmission line...................................................................................................... 12 Figure 1.3 High Tech Electronics............................................................................................................... 13 Figure 1. 4 Anybody Connected device (ABCD)....................................................................................... 14 Figure 1.5 programmable device................................................................................................................ 15 Figure 2.1 Data Processing Cycle............................................................................................................... 23 Figure 2.2 Data types from a data analytics perspective............................................................................. 25 Figure 2.3 Data Value Chain...................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 2.4 Characteristics of big data......................................................................................................... 29 Figure 2.5 Hadoop Ecosystem.................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 3.1 Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL)....................... 37 Figure 3.2 Artificial Intelligence is multidisciplinary................................................................................. 39 Figure 3.3 History of Artificial Intelligence (AI)....................................................................................... 42 Figure 3.4 The seven layers of AI maturity............................................................................................... 46 Figure 3.5 types of Artificial Intelligence (AI)........................................................................................... 47 Figure 3.6 Current changes in the data landscape....................................................................................... 52 Figure 3.7 The comparison between the growth of structured and unstructured data............................... 53 Figure 4.1 IoT in Different Domains.......................................................................................................... 66 Figure 4.2 Architecture of IoT..................................................................................................................... 70 Figure 4.3 Networked IoT Devices............................................................................................................. 74 Figure 5.1 Paul Milgram's Reality-Virtuality (RV) Continuum................................................................. 83 Figure 5.2 Example of Immersive Technology............................................................................................ 84 Figure 5.3 VR Case that Inserts a Smartphone........................................................................................... 84 Figure 5.4 Direct and Indirect Augmentation of Objects............................................................................ 85 Figure 5.5 Mixed Reality in Engineering and Medicine............................................................................. 86 Figure 5.6 Mixed Reality in Entertainment................................................................................................ 86 Figure 5.7 Augmented Reality Systems (ARS) standard architecture........................................................ 88 Figure 7.1 Physicist Richard Feynman, the father of nanotechnology..................................................... 109 Figure 7.2 comparisons of a centralized and decentralized network........................................................ 118 Figure 7.3 central and peer-to-peer downloading..................................................................................... 121 Figure 7.4 Autonomic Characteristics...................................................................................................... 127 Figure 7.5 Some industrial applications of computer vision: (a) optical character recognition (OCR) (b) mechanical inspection (c) retail (d) medical imaging (e) automotive safety (f) surveillance and traffic monitoring................................................................................................................................................. 131 Figure 7.6 Basic structure of an embedded system................................................................................... 132 7 Chapter 1: Introduction to Emerging Technologies Introduction In this chapter evolution of technology, the role of data for emerging technology, enabling devices and networks for technologies (programmable devices), Human to Machine Interaction (HCI) and future trends of technologies are discussed. After completing this chapter, the students will be able to: Develop knowledge about the era of industrial evolutions Identify the technological advances that made the industrial revolution possible Analyze the changing conditions created by the industrial revolution in both Europe and the united states Understand the causes of the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain, continental Europe, and the United States. Describe the technological innovations that spurred industrialization Identifies and understand the programmable device Understand concepts relating to the design of human-computer interfaces in ways making computer-based systems comprehensive, friendly and usable. Develop general knowledge about emerging technologies 1.1 Evolution of Technologies Activity 1.1 Define emerging technologies? Define Technology and Evolution in the context of your prior knowledge and compare it with the discussion given below? Emerging technology is a term generally used to describe a new technology, but it may also refer to the continuing development of existing technology; it can have slightly different meanings when used in different areas, such as media, business, science, or education. The term commonly refers to technologies that are currently developing, or that are expected to be available within the next five to ten years, and is usually reserved for technologies that are creating or are expected to create 8 significant social or economic effects. Technological evolution is a theory of radical transformation of society through technological development. What is the root word of technology and evolution? Technology: 1610s, "discourse or treatise on an art or the arts," from Greek tekhnologia "systematic treatment of an art, craft, or technique," originally referring to grammar, from tekhno- (see techno-) + -logy. The meaning "science of the mechanical and industrial arts" is first recorded in 1859. Evolution: evolution means the process of developing by gradual changes. This noun is from Latin evolutio, "an unrolling or opening," combined from the prefix e-, "out," plus volvere, "to roll." Activity 1.2 List out at list top five currently available emerged technologies? List of some currently available emerged technologies Artificial Intelligence Blockchain Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality Cloud Computing Angular and React DevOps Internet of Things (IoT) Intelligent Apps (I-Apps) Big Data Robotic Processor Automation (RPA) 9 1.1.1 Introduction to the Industrial Revolution (IR) The Industrial Revolution was a period of major industrialization and innovation that took place during the late 1700s and early 1800s. An Industrial Revolution at its core occurs when a society shifts from using tools to make products to use new sources of energy, such as coal, to power machines in factories. The revolution started in England, with a series of innovations to make labor more efficient and productive. The Industrial Revolution was a time when the manufacturing of goods moved from small shops and homes to large factories. This shift brought about changes in culture as people moved from rural areas to big cities in order to work. The American Industrial Revolution commonly referred to as the Second Industrial Revolution, started sometime between 1820 and 1870. The impact of changing the way items was manufactured had a wide reach. Industries such as textile manufacturing, mining, glass making, and agriculture all had undergone changes. For example, prior to the Industrial Revolution, textiles were primarily made of wool and were handspun. From the first industrial revolution (mechanization through water and steam power) to the mass production and assembly lines using electricity in the second, the fourth industrial revolution will take what was started in the third with the adoption of computers and automation and enhance it with smart and autonomous systems fueled by data and machine learning. Generally, the following industrial revolutions fundamentally changed and transfer the world around us into modern society. The steam engine, The age of science and mass production, and The rise of digital technology Smart and autonomous systems fueled by data and machine learning. Activity 1.3 What are the most important inventions of industrial revolutions? 10 1.1.2 The Most Important Inventions of the Industrial Revolution Transportation: The Steam Engine, The Railroad, The Diesel Engine, The Airplane. Communication.: The Telegraph. The Transatlantic Cable. The Phonograph. The Telephone. Industry: The Cotton Gin. The Sewing Machine. Electric Lights. 1.1.3 Historical Background (IR 1.0, IR 2.0, IR 3.0) The industrial revolution began in Great Britain in the late 1770s before spreading to the rest of Europe. The first European countries to be industrialized after England were Belgium, France, and the German states. The final cause of the Industrial Revolution was the effects created by the Agricultural Revolution. As previously stated, the Industrial Revolution began in Britain in the 18th century due in part to an increase in food production, which was the key outcome of the Agricultural Revolution. The four types of industries are: The primary industry involves getting raw materials e.g. mining, farming, and fishing. The secondary industry involves manufacturing e.g. making cars and steel. Tertiary industries provide a service e.g. teaching and nursing. The quaternary industry involves research and development industries e.g. IT. Activity 1.4 Describe the social, economic, and environmental impact of the Industrial Revolution and make connections between the impact of the Industrial Revolution and the ideological and political responses? Discussed the relationship between the industrialized and no industrialized parts of the world by demonstrating the cases of China, Egypt, and India? To write about the First, Second, Third and Fourth Industrial Revolution. After you are completed writing then read the discussion below and then compares your notes with it. To write your note, use the space provided below? 11 1.1.3.1 Industrial Revolution (IR 1.0) The Industrial Revolution (IR) is described as a transition to new manufacturing processes. IR was first coined in the 1760s, during the time where this revolution began. The transitions in the first IR included going from hand production methods to machines, the increasing use of steam power (see Figure 1.1), the development of machine tools and the rise of the factory system. Figure 1.1 steam engine 1.1.3.2 Industrial Revolution (IR 2.0) The Second IR, also known as the Technological Revolution, began somewhere in the 1870s. The advancements in IR 2.0 included the development of methods for manufacturing interchangeable parts and widespread adoption of pre-existing technological systems such as telegraph and railroad networks. This adoption allowed the vast movement of people and ideas, enhancing communication. Moreover, new technological systems were introduced, such as electrical power (see Figure 1.2) and telephones. Figure 1.2 Electricity transmission line 12 1.1.3.3 Industrial Revolution (IR 3.0) Then came the Third Industrial Revolution (IR 3.0). IR 3.0 introduced the transition from mechanical and analog electronic technology to digital electronics (see Figure 1.3) which began from the late 1950s. Due to the shift towards digitalization, IR 3.0 was given the nickname, “Digital Revolution”. The core factor of this revolution is the mass production and widespread use of digital logic circuits and its derived technologies such as the computer, handphones and the Internet. These technological innovations have arguably transformed traditional production and business techniques enabling people to communicate with another without the need of being physically present. Certain practices that were enabled during IR 3.0 is still being practiced until this current day, for example – the proliferation of digital computers and digital record. Figure 1.3 High Tech Electronics Activity 1.4 What do you think that IR 4.0 differs from the previous IR (i.e. 1-3)? 1.1.3.4 Fourth Industrial Revolution (IR 4.0) Now, with advancements in various technologies such as robotics, Internet of Things (IoT see Figure 1.4), additive manufacturing and autonomous vehicles, the term “Fourth Industrial Revolution” or IR 4.0 was coined by Klaus Schwab, the founder and executive chairman of World Economic Forum, in the year 2016. The technologies mentioned above are what you call – cyber- physical systems. A cyber-physical system is a mechanism that is controlled or monitored by computer-based algorithms, tightly integrated with the Internet and its users. 13 One example that is being widely practiced in industries today is the usage of Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machines. These machines are operated by giving it instructions using a computer. Another major breakthrough that is associated with IR 4.0 is the adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI), where we can see it being implemented into our smartphones. AI is also one of the main elements that give life to Autonomous Vehicles and Automated Robots. Figure 1. 4 Anybody Connected device (ABCD) Activity 1.5 Discus about Agricultural Revolutions, Information Revolutions and level of the industrial revolution in Ethiopia and also compare with UK, USA, and China? 1.2 Role of Data for Emerging Technologies Data is regarded as the new oil and strategic asset since we are living in the age of big data, and drives or even determines the future of science, technology, the economy, and possibly everything in our world today and tomorrow. Data have not only triggered tremendous hype and buzz but more importantly, presents enormous challenges that in turn bring incredible innovation and economic opportunities. This reshaping and paradigm-shifting are driven not just by data itself but all other aspects that could be created, transformed, and/or adjusted by understanding, exploring, and utilizing data. The preceding trend and its potential have triggered new debate about data-intensive scientific discovery as an emerging technology, the so-called “fourth industrial revolution,” There is no 14 doubt, nevertheless, that the potential of data science and analytics to enable data-driven theory, economy, and professional development is increasingly being recognized. This involves not only core disciplines such as computing, informatics, and statistics, but also the broad-based fields of business, social science, and health/medical science. Activity 1.6 Did barfly discuss Data, Information and Big Data? List out some programmable devices and explain their property? 1.3 Enabling devices and network (Programmable devices) In the world of digital electronic systems, there are four basic kinds of devices: memory, microprocessors, logic, and networks. Memory devices store random information such as the contents of a spreadsheet or database. Microprocessors execute software instructions to perform a wide variety of tasks such as running a word processing program or video game. Logic devices provide specific functions, including device-to-device interfacing, data communication, signal processing, data display, timing and control operations, and almost every other function a system must perform. The network is a collection of computers, servers, mainframes, network devices, peripherals, or other devices connected to one another to allow the sharing of data. An excellent example of a network is the Internet, which connects millions of people all over the world Programmable devices (see Figure 1.5) usually refer to chips that incorporate field programmable logic devices (FPGAs), complex programmable logic devices (CPLD) and programmable logic devices (PLD). There are also devices that are the analog equivalent of these called field- programmable analog arrays. Figure 1.5 programmable device 15 Why is a computer referred to as a programmable device? Because what makes a computer a computer is that it follows a set of instructions. Many electronic devices are computers that perform only one operation, but they are still following instructions that reside permanently in the unit. 1.3.1 List of some Programmable devices Achronix Speedster SPD60 Actel’s Altera Stratix IV GT and Arria II GX Atmel’s AT91CAP7L Cypress Semiconductor’s programmable system-on-chip (PSoC) family Lattice Semiconductor’s ECP3 Lime Microsystems’ LMS6002 Silicon Blue Technologies Xilinx Virtex 6 and Spartan 6 Xmos Semiconductor L series Activity 1.7 Under subtopic of enabling devices and network, we have seen some list of programmable devices now barfly discussed futures of some programmable devices? A full range of network-related equipment referred to as Service Enabling Devices (SEDs), which can include: Traditional channel service unit (CSU) and data service unit (DSU) Modems Routers Switches Conferencing equipment Network appliances (NIDs and SIDs) Hosting equipment and servers 16 1.4 Human to Machine Interaction Human-machine interaction (HMI) refers to the communication and interaction between a human and a machine via a user interface. Nowadays, natural user interfaces such as gestures have gained increasing attention as they allow humans to control machines through natural and intuitive behaviors What is interaction in human-computer interaction? HCI (human-computer interaction) is the study of how people interact with computers and to what extent computers are or are not developed for successful interaction with human beings. As its name implies, HCI consists of three parts: the user, the computer itself, and the ways they work together. How do users interact with computers? The user interacts directly with hardware for the human input and output such as displays, e.g. through a graphical user interface. The user interacts with the computer over this software interface using the given input and output (I/O) hardware. How important is human-computer interaction? The goal of HCI is to improve the interaction between users and computers by making computers more user-friendly and receptive to the user's needs. The main advantages of HCI are simplicity, ease of deployment & operations and cost savings for smaller set-ups. They also reduce solution design time and integration complexity. 1.4.1 Disciplines Contributing to Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) Cognitive psychology: Limitations, information processing, performance prediction, cooperative working, and capabilities. Computer science: Including graphics, technology, prototyping tools, user interface management systems. Linguistics. Engineering and design. Artificial intelligence. Human factors. 17 1.5 Future Trends in Emerging Technologies 1.5.1 Emerging technology trends in 2019 5G Networks Artificial Intelligence (AI) Autonomous Devices Blockchain Augmented Analytics Digital Twins Enhanced Edge Computing and Immersive Experiences in Smart Spaces Activity 1.8 Which emerging technologies will have more effect on our day to day life & How? 1.5.2 Some emerging technologies that will shape the future of you and your business The future is now or so they say. So-called emerging technologies are taking over our minds more and more each day. These are very high-level emerging technologies though. They sound like tools that will only affect the top tier of technology companies who employ the world’s top 1% of geniuses. This is totally wrong. Chatbots, virtual/augmented reality, blockchain, Ephemeral Apps and Artificial Intelligence are already shaping your life whether you like it or not. At the end of the day, you can either adapt or die. Activity 1.9 Barfly discussed these emerging technologies how it could be shaping the future of you and your business Chatbots Virtual, Augmented & Mixed Reality Blockchain. The blockchain frenzy is real Ephemeral Apps and Artificial Intelligence. 18 Activity 1.10 Divide your class into small groups of 3-5 students. Using an informal debate format, assign each group an innovation or invention from the Industrial Revolution to discuss the importance of, stating why it was the most important advancement of the time. Each student will speak for 1-2 minutes on the following subjects: Describing what their innovation or invention was. Why their assigned innovation or invention was the most important? The impact on society of their innovation. (note, this may not be completely apparent at first but will require some critical thinking. These can be both positive and negative) The student's job is to convince the class that their invention was the most important invention of the industrial revolution. You can even vote after the presentations to see which group the class believes had the most important invention. Possible innovations and inventions are: Steam Engine Railroad Interchangeable Parts Steamboat Spinning Jenny High-quality iron 19 Chapter One Review Questions 1. Where did the Industrial Revolution start and why did it begin there? 2. What does “emerging” mean, emerging technologies and how are they found? 3. What makes “emerging technologies” happen and what impact will they have on Individuals, Society, and Environment? 4. Discussed the economic and ideological causes of the American, the French, and the Chinese Revolutions, and to see the larger historical contexts in which these events took place? 5. Discuss and compare the course of the American, the French, and the Chinese revolutions and analyze the reasons for and significance of the different outcomes of these three revolutions? 6. Discuss the successes and the shortcomings of the conservative reaction to the French Revolution as seen in the actions of the Congress of Vienna and the Holy Alliance? 7. How do recent approaches to “embodied interaction” differ from earlier accounts of the role of cognition in human-computer interaction? 8. What is the reason for taking care of design a good computer-human interface? 9. Discuss the pros and cons of human-computer interaction technology? 20 Chapter 2: Data Science Introduction In the previous chapter, the concept of the role of data for emerging technologies was discussed. In this chapter, you are going to learn more about data science, data vs. information, data types and representation, data value chain, and basic concepts of big data. After completing this chapter, the students will be able to: Describe what data science is and the role of data scientists. Differentiate data and information. Describe data processing life cycle Understand different data types from diverse perspectives Describe data value chain in emerging era of big data. Understand the basics of Big Data. Describe the purpose of the Hadoop ecosystem components. 2.1. An Overview of Data Science Activity 2.1 What is data science? Can you describe the role of data in emerging technology? What are data and information? What is big data? Data science is a multi-disciplinary field that uses scientific methods, processes, algorithms, and systems to extract knowledge and insights from structured, semi-structured and unstructured data. Data science is much more than simply analyzing data. It offers a range of roles and requires a range of skills. Let’s consider this idea by thinking about some of the data involved in buying a box of cereal from the store or supermarket: Whatever your cereal preferences—teff, wheat, or burly—you prepare for the purchase by writing “cereal” in your notebook. This planned purchase is a piece of data though it is written by pencil that you can read. 21 When you get to the store, you use your data as a reminder to grab the item and put it in your cart. At the checkout line, the cashier scans the barcode on your container, and the cash register logs the price. Back in the warehouse, a computer tells the stock manager that it is time to request another order from the distributor because your purchase was one of the last boxes in the store. You also have a coupon for your big box, and the cashier scans that, giving you a predetermined discount. At the end of the week, a report of all the scanned manufacturer coupons gets uploaded to the cereal company so they can issue a reimbursement to the grocery store for all of the coupon discounts they have handed out to customers. Finally, at the end of the month, a store manager looks at a colorful collection of pie charts showing all the different kinds of cereal that were sold and, on the basis of strong sales of cereals, decides to offer more varieties of these on the store’s limited shelf space next month. So, the small piece of information that began as a scribble on your notebook ended up in many different places, most notably on the desk of a manager as an aid to decision making. On the trip from your pencil to the manager’s desk, the data went through many transformations. In addition to the computers where the data might have stopped by or stayed on for the long term, lots of other pieces of hardware—such as the barcode scanner—were involved in collecting, manipulating, transmitting, and storing the data. In addition, many different pieces of software were used to organize, aggregate, visualize, and present the data. Finally, many different human systems were involved in working with the data. People decided which systems to buy and install, who should get access to what kinds of data, and what would happen to the data after its immediate purpose was fulfilled. As an academic discipline and profession, data science continues to evolve as one of the most promising and in-demand career paths for skilled professionals. Today, successful data professionals understand that they must advance past the traditional skills of analyzing large amounts of data, data mining, and programming skills. In order to uncover useful intelligence for their organizations, data scientists must master the full spectrum of the data science life cycle and possess a level of flexibility and understanding to maximize returns at each phase of the process. Data scientists need to be curious and result-oriented, with exceptional industry-specific knowledge and communication skills that allow them to explain highly technical results to their 22 non-technical counterparts. They possess a strong quantitative background in statistics and linear algebra as well as programming knowledge with focuses on data warehousing, mining, and modeling to build and analyze algorithms. In this chapter, we will talk about basic definitions of data and information, data types and representation, data value change and basic concepts of big data. Activity 2.2 Describe in some detail the main disciplines that contribute to data science. Let the teacher explain the role of data scientists and students may write a small report on the same. 2.1.1. What are data and information? Data can be defined as a representation of facts, concepts, or instructions in a formalized manner, which should be suitable for communication, interpretation, or processing, by human or electronic machines. It can be described as unprocessed facts and figures. It is represented with the help of characters such as alphabets (A-Z, a-z), digits (0-9) or special characters (+, -, /, *, , =, etc.). Whereas information is the processed data on which decisions and actions are based. It is data that has been processed into a form that is meaningful to the recipient and is of real or perceived value in the current or the prospective action or decision of recipient. Furtherer more, information is interpreted data; created from organized, structured, and processed data in a particular context. 2.1.2. Data Processing Cycle Data processing is the re-structuring or re-ordering of data by people or machines to increase their usefulness and add values for a particular purpose. Data processing consists of the following basic steps - input, processing, and output. These three steps constitute the data processing cycle. Figure 2.1 Data Processing Cycle Input − in this step, the input data is prepared in some convenient form for processing. The form will depend on the processing machine. For example, when electronic computers are 23 used, the input data can be recorded on any one of the several types of storage medium, such as hard disk, CD, flash disk and so on. Processing − in this step, the input data is changed to produce data in a more useful form. For example, interest can be calculated on deposit to a bank, or a summary of sales for the month can be calculated from the sales orders. Output − at this stage, the result of the proceeding processing step is collected. The particular form of the output data depends on the use of the data. For example, output data may be payroll for employees. Activity 2.3 Discuss the main differences between data and information with examples. Can we process data manually using a pencil and paper? Discuss the differences with data processing using the computer. 2.3 Data types and their representation Data types can be described from diverse perspectives. In computer science and computer programming, for instance, a data type is simply an attribute of data that tells the compiler or interpreter how the programmer intends to use the data. 2.3.1. Data types from Computer programming perspective Almost all programming languages explicitly include the notion of data type, though different languages may use different terminology. Common data types include: Integers(int)- is used to store whole numbers, mathematically known as integers Booleans(bool)- is used to represent restricted to one of two values: true or false Characters(char)- is used to store a single character Floating-point numbers(float)- is used to store real numbers Alphanumeric strings(string)- used to store a combination of characters and numbers A data type makes the values that expression, such as a variable or a function, might take. This data type defines the operations that can be done on the data, the meaning of the data, and the way values of that type can be stored. 24 2.3.2. Data types from Data Analytics perspective From a data analytics point of view, it is important to understand that there are three common types of data types or structures: Structured, Semi-structured, and Unstructured data types. Fig. 2.2 below describes the three types of data and metadata. Figure 2.2 Data types from a data analytics perspective Structured Data Structured data is data that adheres to a pre-defined data model and is therefore straightforward to analyze. Structured data conforms to a tabular format with a relationship between the different rows and columns. Common examples of structured data are Excel files or SQL databases. Each of these has structured rows and columns that can be sorted. Semi-structured Data Semi-structured data is a form of structured data that does not conform with the formal structure of data models associated with relational databases or other forms of data tables, but nonetheless, contains tags or other markers to separate semantic elements and enforce hierarchies of records and fields within the data. Therefore, it is also known as a self-describing structure. Examples of semi-structured data include JSON and XML are forms of semi-structured data. Unstructured Data Unstructured data is information that either does not have a predefined data model or is not organized in a pre-defined manner. Unstructured information is typically text-heavy but may contain data such as dates, numbers, and facts as well. This results in irregularities and ambiguities 25 that make it difficult to understand using traditional programs as compared to data stored in structured databases. Common examples of unstructured data include audio, video files or No- SQL databases. Metadata – Data about Data The last category of data type is metadata. From a technical point of view, this is not a separate data structure, but it is one of the most important elements for Big Data analysis and big data solutions. Metadata is data about data. It provides additional information about a specific set of data. In a set of photographs, for example, metadata could describe when and where the photos were taken. The metadata then provides fields for dates and locations which, by themselves, can be considered structured data. Because of this reason, metadata is frequently used by Big Data solutions for initial analysis. Activity 2.4 Discuss data types from programing and analytics perspectives. Compare metadata with structured, unstructured and semi-structured data Given at least one example of structured, unstructured and semi-structured data types 2.4. Data value Chain The Data Value Chain is introduced to describe the information flow within a big data system as a series of steps needed to generate value and useful insights from data. The Big Data Value Chain identifies the following key high-level activities: Figure 2.3 Data Value Chain 26 2.4.1. Data Acquisition It is the process of gathering, filtering, and cleaning data before it is put in a data warehouse or any other storage solution on which data analysis can be carried out. Data acquisition is one of the major big data challenges in terms of infrastructure requirements. The infrastructure required to support the acquisition of big data must deliver low, predictable latency in both capturing data and in executing queries; be able to handle very high transaction volumes, often in a distributed environment; and support flexible and dynamic data structures. 2.4.2. Data Analysis It is concerned with making the raw data acquired amenable to use in decision-making as well as domain-specific usage. Data analysis involves exploring, transforming, and modeling data with the goal of highlighting relevant data, synthesizing and extracting useful hidden information with high potential from a business point of view. Related areas include data mining, business intelligence, and machine learning. 2.4.3. Data Curation It is the active management of data over its life cycle to ensure it meets the necessary data quality requirements for its effective usage. Data curation processes can be categorized into different activities such as content creation, selection, classification, transformation, validation, and preservation. Data curation is performed by expert curators that are responsible for improving the accessibility and quality of data. Data curators (also known as scientific curators or data annotators) hold the responsibility of ensuring that data are trustworthy, discoverable, accessible, reusable and fit their purpose. A key trend for the duration of big data utilizes community and crowdsourcing approaches. 2.4.4. Data Storage It is the persistence and management of data in a scalable way that satisfies the needs of applications that require fast access to the data. Relational Database Management Systems (RDBMS) have been the main, and almost unique, a solution to the storage paradigm for nearly 40 years. However, the ACID (Atomicity, Consistency, Isolation, and Durability) properties that guarantee database transactions lack flexibility with regard to schema changes and the performance and fault tolerance when data volumes and complexity grow, making them unsuitable 27 for big data scenarios. NoSQL technologies have been designed with the scalability goal in mind and present a wide range of solutions based on alternative data models. 2.4.5. Data Usage It covers the data-driven business activities that need access to data, its analysis, and the tools needed to integrate the data analysis within the business activity. Data usage in business decision- making can enhance competitiveness through the reduction of costs, increased added value, or any other parameter that can be measured against existing performance criteria. Activity 2.5 Which information flow step in the data value chain you think is labor-intensive? Why? What are the different data types and their value chain? 2.5. Basic concepts of big data Big data is a blanket term for the non-traditional strategies and technologies needed to gather, organize, process, and gather insights from large datasets. While the problem of working with data that exceeds the computing power or storage of a single computer is not new, the pervasiveness, scale, and value of this type of computing have greatly expanded in recent years. In this section, we will talk about big data on a fundamental level and define common concepts you might come across. We will also take a high-level look at some of the processes and technologies currently being used in this space. 2.5.1. What Is Big Data? Big data is the term for a collection of data sets so large and complex that it becomes difficult to process using on-hand database management tools or traditional data processing applications. In this context, a “large dataset” means a dataset too large to reasonably process or store with traditional tooling or on a single computer. This means that the common scale of big datasets is constantly shifting and may vary significantly from organization to organization. Big data is characterized by 3V and more: 28 Volume: large amounts of data Zeta bytes/Massive datasets Velocity: Data is live streaming or in motion Variety: data comes in many different forms from diverse sources Veracity: can we trust the data? How accurate is it? etc. Figure 2.4 Characteristics of big data 2.5.2. Clustered Computing and Hadoop Ecosystem 2.5.2.1.Clustered Computing Because of the qualities of big data, individual computers are often inadequate for handling the data at most stages. To better address the high storage and computational needs of big data, computer clusters are a better fit. Big data clustering software combines the resources of many smaller machines, seeking to provide a number of benefits: Resource Pooling: Combining the available storage space to hold data is a clear benefit, but CPU and memory pooling are also extremely important. Processing large datasets requires large amounts of all three of these resources. High Availability: Clusters can provide varying levels of fault tolerance and availability guarantees to prevent hardware or software failures from affecting access to data and processing. This becomes increasingly important as we continue to emphasize the importance of real-time analytics. 29 Easy Scalability: Clusters make it easy to scale horizontally by adding additional machines to the group. This means the system can react to changes in resource requirements without expanding the physical resources on a machine. Using clusters requires a solution for managing cluster membership, coordinating resource sharing, and scheduling actual work on individual nodes. Cluster membership and resource allocation can be handled by software like Hadoop’s YARN (which stands for Yet Another Resource Negotiator). The assembled computing cluster often acts as a foundation that other software interfaces with to process the data. The machines involved in the computing cluster are also typically involved with the management of a distributed storage system, which we will talk about when we discuss data persistence. Activity 2.6 List and discuss the characteristics of big data Describe the big data life cycle. Which step you think most useful and why? List and describe each technology or tool used in the big data life cycle. Discuss the three methods of computing over a large dataset. 2.5.2.2.Hadoop and its Ecosystem Hadoop is an open-source framework intended to make interaction with big data easier. It is a framework that allows for the distributed processing of large datasets across clusters of computers using simple programming models. It is inspired by a technical document published by Google. The four key characteristics of Hadoop are: Economical: Its systems are highly economical as ordinary computers can be used for data processing. Reliable: It is reliable as it stores copies of the data on different machines and is resistant to hardware failure. Scalable: It is easily scalable both, horizontally and vertically. A few extra nodes help in scaling up the framework. 30 Flexible: It is flexible and you can store as much structured and unstructured data as you need to and decide to use them later. Hadoop has an ecosystem that has evolved from its four core components: data management, access, processing, and storage. It is continuously growing to meet the needs of Big Data. It comprises the following components and many others: HDFS: Hadoop Distributed File System YARN: Yet Another Resource Negotiator MapReduce: Programming based Data Processing Spark: In-Memory data processing PIG, HIVE: Query-based processing of data services HBase: NoSQL Database Mahout, Spark MLLib: Machine Learning algorithm libraries Solar, Lucene: Searching and Indexing Zookeeper: Managing cluster Oozie: Job Scheduling Figure 2.5 Hadoop Ecosystem 31 Activity 2.7 Students in a group shall discuss the purpose of each Hadoop Ecosystem components? 2.5.3. Big Data Life Cycle with Hadoop 2.5.3.1. Ingesting data into the system The first stage of Big Data processing is Ingest. The data is ingested or transferred to Hadoop from various sources such as relational databases, systems, or local files. Sqoop transfers data from RDBMS to HDFS, whereas Flume transfers event data. 2.5.3.2. Processing the data in storage The second stage is Processing. In this stage, the data is stored and processed. The data is stored in the distributed file system, HDFS, and the NoSQL distributed data, HBase. Spark and MapReduce perform data processing. 2.5.3.3. Computing and analyzing data The third stage is to Analyze. Here, the data is analyzed by processing frameworks such as Pig, Hive, and Impala. Pig converts the data using a map and reduce and then analyzes it. Hive is also based on the map and reduce programming and is most suitable for structured data. 2.5.3.4. Visualizing the results The fourth stage is Access, which is performed by tools such as Hue and Cloudera Search. In this stage, the analyzed data can be accessed by users. 32 33 Chapter Two Review Questions 1. Define data science; what are the roles of a data scientist? 2. Discuss data and its types from computer programming and data analytics perspectives? 3. Discuss a series of steps needed to generate value and useful insights from data? 4. What is the principal goal of data science? 5. List out and discuss the characteristics of Big Data? 6. How we ingest streaming data into Hadoop Cluster? 34 Chapter 3: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Introduction In the previous chapter you have been studied about data science, how data acquisition, analyzed and stored. Basic concepts of big data were also studied. In this chapter, artificial intelligence, history, types, and applications in different sectors are studied. Finally, some tools and platforms, as well as a real sample of AI applications, are discussed. After completing this chapter, the students will be able to: Explain what artificial intelligence (AI) is. Describe the eras of AI. Explain the types and approaches of AI. Describe the applications of AI in health, agriculture, business and education List the factors that influenced the advancement of AI in recent years. Understand the relationship between the human’s way of thinking and AI systems Identify AI research focus areas. Identify real-world AI applications, some platforms, and tools. 3.1. What is Artificial Intelligence (AI) Artificial Intelligence is composed of two words Artificial and Intelligence. Activity 3.1 How do you define the word Artificial? And the word Intelligence? Artificial defines "man-made," and intelligence defines "thinking power", or “the ability to learn and solve problems” hence Artificial Intelligence means "a man-made thinking power." So, we can define Artificial Intelligence (AI) as the branch of computer science by which we can create intelligent machines which can behave like a human, think like humans, and able to make decisions. Intelligence, as we know, is the ability to acquire and apply knowledge. Knowledge is the information acquired through experience. Experience is the knowledge gained through exposure (training). Summing the terms up, we get artificial intelligence as the “copy of something natural 35 (i.e., human beings) ‘WHO’ is capable of acquiring and applying the information it has gained through exposure.” Activity 3.2 What do you think to make the machine think and make a decision like human beings do? Artificial Intelligence exists when a machine can have human-based skills such as learning, reasoning, and solving problems with Artificial Intelligence you do not need to preprogram a machine to do some work, despite that you can create a machine with programmed algorithms which can work with own intelligence. Intelligence is composed of: Reasoning Learning Problem Solving Perception Linguistic Intelligence An AI system is composed of an agent and its environment. An agent (e.g., human or robot) is anything that can perceive its environment through sensors and acts upon that environment through effectors. Intelligent agents must be able to set goals and achieve them. In classical planning problems, the agent can assume that it is the only system acting in the world, allowing the agent to be certain of the consequences of its actions. However, if the agent is not the only actor, then it requires that the agent can reason under uncertainty. This calls for an agent that cannot only assess its environment and make predictions but also evaluate its predictions and adapt based on its assessment. Machine perception is the ability to use input from sensors (such as cameras, microphones, sensors, etc.) to deduce aspects of the world. e.g., Computer Vision. High-profile examples of AI include autonomous vehicles (such as drones and self-driving cars), medical diagnosis, creating art (such as poetry), proving mathematical theorems, playing games (such as Chess or Go), search engines (such as Google search), online assistants (such as Siri), 36 image recognition in photographs, spam filtering, prediction of judicial decisions and targeting online advertisements AI deals with the area of developing computing systems that are capable of performing tasks that humans are very good at, for example recognizing objects, recognizing and making sense of speech, and decision making in a constrained environment. The advent of Big Data, driven by the arrival of the internet, smart mobile and social media has enabled AI algorithms, in particular from Machine Learning and Deep Learning, to leverage Big Data and perform their tasks more optimally. This combined with cheaper and more powerful hardware such as Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) has enabled AI to evolve into more complex architectures. Machine Learning is an advanced form of AI where the machine can learn as it goes rather than having every action programmed by humans. Many times, students get confused between Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence (see figure 3.1), but Machine learning, a fundamental concept of AI research since the field’s inception, is the study of computer algorithms that improve automatically through experience. The term machine learning was introduced by Arthur Samuel in 1959. Neural networks are biologically inspired networks that extract features from the data in a hierarchical fashion. The field of neural networks with several hidden layers is called deep learning. Figure 3.1 Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) 37 3.1.1. Need for Artificial Intelligence Activity 3.3 Why we need AI at this time? 1. To create expert systems that exhibit intelligent behavior with the capability to learn, demonstrate, explain and advice its users. 2. Helping machines find solutions to complex problems like humans do and applying them as algorithms in a computer-friendly manner. 3.1.2. Goals of Artificial Intelligence Activity 3.4 You have been learned about AI and the need for it. What do you think the main goal of the advancement in AI? Following are the main goals of Artificial Intelligence: 1. Replicate human intelligence 2. Solve Knowledge-intensive tasks 3. An intelligent connection of perception and action 4. Building a machine which can perform tasks that requires human intelligence such as: ✓ Proving a theorem ✓ Playing chess ✓ Plan some surgical operation ✓ Driving a car in traffic 5. Creating some system which can exhibit intelligent behavior, learn new things by itself, demonstrate, explain, and can advise to its user. 3.1.3. What Comprises to Artificial Intelligence? Activity 3.5 To make a machine learn and make a decision like humans do, AI requires the knowledge of some disciplines. Write down some disciplines which AI requires? Artificial Intelligence is not just a part of computer science even it's so vast and requires lots of other factors that can contribute to it. To create the AI-first we should know that how intelligence 38 is composed, so Intelligence is an intangible part of our brain which is a combination of Reasoning, learning, problem-solving, perception, language understanding, etc. To achieve the above factors for a machine or software Artificial Intelligence requires the following disciplines (see Figure 3.2): ✓ Mathematics ✓ Biology ✓ Psychology ✓ Sociology ✓ Computer Science ✓ Neurons Study ✓ Statistics Figure 3.2 Artificial Intelligence is multidisciplinary 3.1.4. Advantages of Artificial Intelligence Activity 3.6 What do we get from using AI technology instead of previous reactive technology? 39 Following are some main advantages of Artificial Intelligence: High Accuracy with fewer errors: AI machines or systems are prone to fewer errors and high accuracy as it takes decisions as per pre-experience or information. High-Speed: AI systems can be of very high-speed and fast-decision making, because of that AI systems can beat a chess champion in the Chess game. High reliability: AI machines are highly reliable and can perform the same action multiple times with high accuracy. Useful for risky areas: AI machines can be helpful in situations such as defusing a bomb, exploring the ocean floor, where to employ a human can be risky. Digital Assistant: AI can be very useful to provide digital assistant to users such as AI technology is currently used by various E-commerce websites to show the products as per customer requirements. Useful as a public utility: AI can be very useful for public utilities such as a self- driving car which can make our journey safer and hassle-free, facial recognition for security purposes, Natural language processing (for search engines, for spelling checker, for assistant like Siri, for translation like google translate), etc. 3.1.5. Disadvantages of Artificial Intelligence Activity 3.7 As we all know, engineering is a tradeoff; improving or enhancing in one aspect will lead you to worsen or deteriorating in another aspect. In the previous chapter, we have learned the advantages of AI; write down some disadvantages of AI? One of the key features that distinguishes us, humans, from everything else in the world is intelligence. This ability to understand, apply knowledge and improve skills has played a significant role in our evolution and establishing human civilization. But many people (including Elon Musk the founder of ….) believe that the advancement in technology can create a superintelligence that can threaten human existence. Every technology has some disadvantages, and the same goes for Artificial intelligence. Being so advantageous technology still, it has some disadvantages which we need to keep in our mind while creating an AI system. Following are the disadvantages of AI: 40 High Cost: The hardware and software requirement of AI is very costly as it requires lots of maintenance to meet current world requirements. Can't think out of the box: Even we are making smarter machines with AI, but still they cannot work out of the box, as the robot will only do that work for which they are trained, or programmed. No feelings and emotions: AI machines can be an outstanding performer, but still it does not have the feeling so it cannot make any kind of emotional attachment with humans, and may sometime be harmful for users if the proper care is not taken. Increase dependence on machines: With the increment of technology, people are getting more dependent on devices and hence they are losing their mental capabilities. No Original Creativity: As humans are so creative and can imagine some new ideas but still AI machines cannot beat this power of human intelligence and cannot be creative and imaginative. 3.2. History of AI Activity 3.8 Do you think AI is old technology? If your answer is yes, why? Can you name the person who coined the term AI? And when? Artificial Intelligence is not a new word and not a new technology for researchers. This technology is much older than you would imagine. Even there are the myths of Mechanical men in Ancient Greek and Egyptian Myths. The following are some milestones in the history of AI which define the journey from the AI generation to till date development (see Figure 3.3). 41 Figure 3.3 History of Artificial Intelligence (AI) A. Maturation of Artificial Intelligence (1943-1952) The year 1943: The first work which is now recognized as AI was done by Warren McCulloch and Walter pits in 1943. They proposed a model of artificial neurons. The year 1949: Donald Hebb demonstrated an updating rule for modifying the connection strength between neurons. His rule is now called Hebbian learning. The year 1950: The Alan Turing who was an English mathematician and pioneered Machine learning in 1950. Alan Turing publishes "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" in which he proposed a test. The test can check the machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to human intelligence, called a Turing test. B. The birth of Artificial Intelligence (1952-1956) 42 The year 1955: An Allen Newell and Herbert A. Simon created the "first artificial intelligence program" Which was named "Logic Theorist". This program had proved 38 of 52 Mathematics theorems, and find new and more elegant proofs for some theorems. The year 1956: The word "Artificial Intelligence" first adopted by American Computer scientist John McCarthy at the Dartmouth Conference. For the first time, AI coined as an academic field. At that time high-level computer languages such as FORTRAN, LISP, or COBOL were invented. And the enthusiasm for AI was very high at that time. C. The golden years-Early enthusiasm (1956-1974) The year 1966: The researchers emphasized developing algorithms that can solve mathematical problems. Joseph Weizenbaum created the first chatbot in 1966, which was named as ELIZA. The year 1972: The first intelligent humanoid robot was built in Japan which was named WABOT-1. D. The first AI winter (1974-1980) The duration between the years 1974 to 1980 was the first AI winter duration. AI winter refers to the time period where computer scientists dealt with a severe shortage of funding from the government for AI researches. During AI winters, an interest in publicity on artificial intelligence was decreased. E. A boom of AI (1980-1987) The year 1980: After AI winter duration, AI came back with "Expert System". Expert systems were programmed that emulate the decision-making ability of a human expert. In the Year 1980, the first national conference of the American Association of Artificial Intelligence was held at Stanford University. F. The second AI winter (1987-1993) The duration between the years 1987 to 1993 was the second AI Winter duration. Again, Investors and government stopped in funding for AI research due to high cost but not efficient results. The expert system such as XCON was very cost-effective. G. The emergence of intelligent agents (1993-2011) The year 1997: In the year 1997, IBM Deep Blue beats world chess champion, Gary Kasparov, and became the first computer to beat a world chess champion. 43 The year 2002: for the first time, AI entered the home in the form of Roomba, a vacuum cleaner. The year 2006: AI came into the Business world until the year 2006. Companies like Facebook, Twitter, and Netflix also started using AI. H. Deep learning, big data and artificial general intelligence (2011-present) The year 2011: In the year 2011, IBM's Watson won jeopardy, a quiz show, where it had to solve complex questions as well as riddles. Watson had proved that it could understand natural language and can solve tricky questions quickly. The year 2012: Google has launched an Android app feature "Google now", which was able to provide information to the user as a prediction. The year 2014: In the year 2014, Chatbot "Eugene Goostman" won a competition in the infamous "Turing test." The year 2018: The "Project Debater" from IBM debated on complex topics with two master debaters and also performed extremely well. Google has demonstrated an AI program "Duplex" which was a virtual assistant and which had taken hairdresser appointment on call, and the lady on the other side didn't notice that she was talking with the machine. Now AI has developed to a remarkable level. The concept of Deep learning, big data, and data science are now trending like a boom. Nowadays companies like Google, Facebook, IBM, and Amazon are working with AI and creating amazing devices. The future of Artificial Intelligence is inspiring and will come with high intelligence. 3.3. Levels of AI Activity 3.9 As we discussed previously, AI technology learns from the environment as well as through experience to make decisions that make them proactive. This technology never emerged out of the blue or overnight but it has passed different stages. What do you think the stages AI passed to get at the current stage of its development? Stage 1 – Rule-Based Systems The most common uses of AI today fit in this bracket, covering everything from business software (Robotic Process Automation) and domestic appliances to aircraft autopilots. 44 Stage 3 – Context Awareness and Retention Algorithms that develop information about the specific domain they are being applied in. They are trained on the knowledge and experience of the best humans, and their knowledge base can be updated as new situations and queries arise. Well, known applications of this level are chatbots and “roboadvisors”. Stage 3 – Domain-Specific Expertise Going beyond the capability of humans, these systems build up expertise in a specific context taking in massive volumes of information which they can use for decision making. Successful use cases have been seen in cancer diagnosis and the well-known Google Deepmind’s AlphaGo. Currently, this type is limited to one domain only would forget all it knows about that domain if you started to teach it something else. Stage 4 – Reasoning Machines These algorithms have some ability to attribute mental states to themselves and others – they have a sense of beliefs, intentions, knowledge, and how their own logic works. This means they could reason or negotiate with humans and other machines. At the moment these algorithms are still in development, however, commercial applications are expected within the next few years. Stage 5 – Self Aware Systems / Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) These systems have human-like intelligence – the most commonly portrayed AI in media – however, no such use is in evidence today. It is the goal of many working in AI and some believe it could be realized already from 2024. Stage 6 – Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) AI algorithms can outsmart even the most intelligent humans in every domain. Logically it is difficult for humans to articulate what the capabilities might be, yet we would hope examples would include solving problems we have failed to so far, such as world hunger and dangerous environmental change. Views vary as to when and 45 whether such a capability could even be possible, yet there a few experts who claim it can be realized by 2029. Fiction has tackled this idea for a long time, for example in the film Ex Machina or Terminator. Stage 7 – Singularity and Transcendence This is the idea that development provided by ASI (Stage 6) leads to a massive expansion in human capability. Human augmentation could connect our brains to each other and to a future successor of the current internet, creating a “hive mind” that shares ideas, solves problems collectively, and even gives others access to our dreams as observers or participants. Pushing this idea further, we might go beyond the limits of the human body and connect to other forms of intelligence on the planet – animals, plants, weather systems, and the natural environment. Some proponents of singularity such as Ray Kurzweil, Google’s Director of Engineering, suggest we could see it happen by 2045 as a result of exponential rates of progress across a range of science and technology disciplines. The other side of the fence argues that singularity is impossible and human consciousness could never be digitized. Figure 3.4 The seven layers of AI maturity 46 3.4. Types of AI Activity 3.10 Since AI is making a machine intelligent, based on the strength of intelligence and functionality, list down some types or classification of AI? Artificial Intelligence can be divided into various types, there are mainly two types of the main categorization which are based on capabilities and based on functionally of AI, as shown in figure 3.5. Following is the flow diagram which explains the types of AI. Figure 3.5 types of Artificial Intelligence (AI) A. Based on Capabilities 1. Weak AI or Narrow AI: Narrow AI is a type of AI which is able to perform a dedicated task with intelligence. The most common and currently available AI is Narrow AI in the world of Artificial Intelligence. Narrow AI cannot perform beyond its field or limitations, as it is only trained for one specific task. Hence it is also termed as weak AI. Narrow AI can fail in unpredictable ways if it goes beyond its limits. Apple Siri is a good example of Narrow AI, but it operates with a limited pre- defined range of functions. 47 IBM's Watson supercomputer also comes under Narrow AI, as it uses an Expert system approach combined with Machine learning and natural language processing. Some Examples of Narrow AI are Google translate, playing chess, purchasing suggestions on e-commerce sites, self-driving cars, speech recognition, and image recognition. 2. General AI: General AI is a type of intelligence that could perform any intellectual task with efficiency like a human. The idea behind the general AI to make such a system that could be smarter and think like a human on its own. Currently, there is no such system exists which could come under general AI and can perform any task as perfect as a human. It may arrive within the next 20 or so years but it has challenges relating to hardware, the energy consumption required in today’s powerful machines, and the need to solve for catastrophic memory loss that affects even the most advanced deep learning algorithms of today The worldwide researchers are now focused on developing machines with General AI. As systems with general AI are still under research, and it will take lots of effort and time to develop such systems. 3. Super AI: Super AI is a level of Intelligence of Systems at which machines could surpass human intelligence, and can perform any task better than a human with cognitive properties. This refers to aspects like general wisdom, problem solving and creativity. It is an outcome of general AI. Some key characteristics of strong AI include capability include the ability to think, to reason solve the puzzle, make judgments, plan, learn, and communicate on its own. Super AI is still a hypothetical concept of Artificial Intelligence. The development of such systems in real is still a world-changing task. B. Based on the functionality 1. Reactive Machines 48 Purely reactive machines are the most basic types of Artificial Intelligence. Such AI systems do not store memories or past experiences for future actions. These machines only focus on current scenarios and react on it as per possible best action. IBM's Deep Blue system is an example of reactive machines. Google's AlphaGo is also an example of reactive machines. 2. Limited Memory Limited memory machines can store past experiences or some data for a short period of time. These machines can use stored data for a limited time period only. Self-driving cars are one of the best examples of Limited Memory systems. These cars can store the recent speed of nearby cars, the distance of other cars, speed limits, and other information to navigate the road. 3. Theory of Mind Theory of Mind AI should understand human emotions, people, beliefs, and be able to interact socially like humans. This type of AI machines is still not developed, but researchers are making lots of efforts and improvement for developing such AI machines. 4. Self-Awareness Self-awareness AI is the future of Artificial Intelligence. These machines will be super intelligent and will have their own consciousness, sentiments, and self- awareness. These machines will be smarter than the human mind. Self-Awareness AI does not exist in reality still and it is a hypothetical concept. 3.4.1. How humans think Activity 3.11 From the previous discussion, General AI is intelligence that could perform any intellectual task with efficiency like a human. So, to achieve this intelligence level, do you think that future intelligence must mimic the way humans think? If your answer is yes, why? 49 The goal of many researchers is to create strong and general AI that learns like a human and can solve general problems as the human brain does. Achieving this goal might require many more years. How does a human being think? Intelligence or the cognitive process is composed of three main stages: Observe and input the information or data in the brain. Interpret and evaluate the input that is received from the surrounding environment. Make decisions as a reaction towards what you received as input and interpreted and evaluated. AI researchers are simulating the same stages in building AI systems or models. This process represents the main three layers or components of AI systems. 3.4.2. Mapping human thinking to artificial intelligence components Activity 3.12 Is it possible to map the way of human thinking to artificial intelligence components? If your answer is yes, why? Because AI is the science of simulating human thinking, it is possible to map the human thinking stages to the layers or components of AI systems. In

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