Risk Management: Domain 3 PDF

Risk Management: Domain 3 Degree of severity: Catastrophic----- Critical------ Marginal----- Negligible Catastrophic: Death or permanent total disability; complete project failure or the loss of ability to complete the project; loss of major critical systems or equipment; severe environmental dama...

Risk Management: Domain 3 Degree of severity: Catastrophic----- Critical------ Marginal----- Negligible Catastrophic: Death or permanent total disability; complete project failure or the loss of ability to complete the project; loss of major critical systems or equipment; severe environmental damage, unacceptable collateral damage. Critical: Permanent partial disability or temporary total disability of employees; severely degraded project capability; extensive major damage to equipment or systems; significant property or environmental damage and significant collateral damage. Marginal: Lost work day injuries or illnesses; degraded project capabilities; minor damage to equipment or systems or minor damage to the environment. Negligible: First aid or minor medical treatment; little or no adverse impact on project capability; slight equipment or system damage, but fully functional or serviceable; little or no property or environmental damage. Hazard Probability Rating Frequent—Likely--- Occasional-Seldom--- Unlikely Frequent (A) : Occurs very often, known to happen regularly. For example, out of 500 exposures, it will happen at least once (numerically, 1/500). Likely (B) : Occurs several times, a common occurrence. For example, out of 1000 exposures, it could happen once (numerically, 1/1000). Occasional (C) : Occurs sporadically, but is not uncommon. You may or may not complete a job or project without this incident occurring to someone. Seldom (D) : Remotely possible, could occur at some time. Usually several things must go wrong in order for it to occur. Unlikely (E): Can assume that the incident will not occur. Composite Risk The composite risk for a department is the product of the composite exposure dollars and the percent risk index. The composite risk represents the economic value of the relative risk for a department. Units for composite risk are dollars. Final Ranking The final step in the process is to rank the departments based on composite risk. Because the goal is to help managers decide where to apply funds to achieve the greatest risk reduction, the departments should be ranked from highest composite score to lowest. The lowest will be zero for the reference department. Geller: “The ABCs of Behavior” Antecedent Behavior Consequence Types of Controls The types of controls can take many forms, but fall into three main categories: educational controls, physical controls, and avoidance. Educational controls. These controls are based on the knowledge and skills of the employees or individuals performing the task. Effective control is implemented through individual and collective training that ensures performance to a standard. Physical controls. These controls may take the form of barriers and guards or signs to warn employees and others that a hazard exists. Additionally, special controllers or supervisory personnel responsible for locating specific hazards fall into this category. Avoidance. These controls are applied when supervisors and managers take positive action to prevent contact or exposure with the identified hazard. Peter Principle: people promoted to level of incompetence Parkinson’s Principle: work expands to fill allotted time Pareto Principle of Mal-distribution: “80/20” Rule 20% of employees responsible for 80% of work /accidents SYSTEM SAFETY:  Fail Safe Passive: 0 energy state equipment stops operating circuit breakers and fuses  Fail Safe Active: emergency lights  Fail Safe Operational: safest for people feed water valve, co-pilot, autopilot Z score (Z): –Determines the location of a single score in the normal distribution –% area under the curve –Eg/ your score compared to rest and % widgets that will fail T-test (t): –compare population mean to sample mean -data sets < 30 –eg/ compares two groups Chi Square (X2): –“goodness of fit” b/w observed and expected- –usually a frequency table 1 SD: +/-68% 2 SD: +/-95% 3 SD: +/-99.7% Poka yoke manufacturing used to prevent or detect errors Japanese term that means "mistake-proofing" or "inadvertent error prevention". A poka-yoke is any mechanism in a process that helps an equipment operator avoid mistakes and defects by preventing, correcting, or drawing attention to human errors as they occur. Process safety management used in materials, construction, piping and electrical ANSI/AIHA Z10: standard helps to establish OSH management systems to improve employee safety, reduce workplace risks and create a better working, same OHSAS 18001 except policy Criteria for Controls To be effective, each control developed must meet the following criteria: Support. Availability of adequate personnel, equipment, supplies, and facilities necessary to implement suitable controls. Standards. Guidance and procedures for implementing a control are clear, practical, and specific. Training. Knowledge and skills are adequate to implement a control. Leadership. Supervisors and managers are competent to implement control. Individual. Individual employees are sufficiently self-disciplined to implement a control measure.2 Some examples of control measures include the following: 1. Avoidance of identified hazards 2. Engineering or designed to eliminate or control hazards 3. Limiting the number of personnel and the amount of time they are exposed to hazards 4. Providing protective clothing, equipment, and safety devices 5. Providing warning signs and signals If the residual levels are too high, then the senior supervisor or manager on the project may elect to do one of the following: Add additional control measures to further reduce the risks Limit the scope of work, which eliminates the high-risk tasks Make the decision to discontinue the project Key Information to Remember on Risk Management Risk is defined as the chance or probability of occurrence of an injury, loss, or a hazard or potential hazard. 2. Risk assessment is the process of assessing the risks associated with each identified hazard, in order to make decisions and implement appropriate control measures to prevent the hazard from occurring. 3. Hazard is a condition with the potential to cause injury, illness, or death of personnel; damage to or loss of equipment or property; or mission degradation. 4. Hazard identification is the process of examining each work area to identify the hazards associated with each job or task. 5. Probability is defined as the likelihood that a given event will occur. 6. Severity is defined as the degree of undesired consequences. 7. The five basic steps in the risk management process are hazard identification, hazard assessment, development of controls and decision-making, implementation, and supervision and evaluation. 8. The types of controls can take many forms, but fall into three main categories: educational controls, physical controls, and avoidance. 9. A key element in developing and implementing control measures is to specify who, what, when, where, and how each control is to be used. 10. A key element of the risk decision is determining if the risk is justified. 11. The critical check for control implementation, with oversight, is to ensure that controls are converted into clear, simple instructions understood at all levels. Total risk exposure is the total number of dollars estimated to be at risk as a result of a particular hazard being evaluated. Societal risk estimating the chances of people being harmed by an industrial incident, accidents that could harm a number of people in one go Individual risk: is the probability of a single consequence occurring to an individual in a given year The Management Oversight and Risk Tree (MORT) is an analytical procedure for determining causes and contributing factors. The same FTA Risk exposure = total risk exposure /total number of units A CBA can help a duty holder make judgements on whether further risk reduction measures are reasonably practicable. Something is reasonably practicable unless its costs are grossly disproportionate to the benefits. Put simply if; In a CBA, all costs and benefits are expressed in a common currency, usually money, so that a comparison can be made between different options. It is a defined methodology for valuing costs and benefits that enables broad comparisons to be made between health and safety risk reduction measures on a consistent basis, giving a measure of transparency to the decision-making process. In undertaking a CBA, all relevant costs which accrue from the inputs into a health and/or safety intervention must be identified and cost. Inputs are defined as any additional human, physical and financial resources that are used to undertake an intervention. Likewise, all relevant health and safety and non-health and safety benefits arising from the intervention must be identified and expressed in monetary terms. Health and safety benefits include the avoidance of actions that would be taken after an incident such as evacuation, food bans, land use restrictions, etc. Non-health and safety benefits are savings and should be included in the CBA as an offset to the duty-holders costs. Residual risk: preventive, detective and remedial controls Preventive reducing the probability risk, Detective before the occurrence of the risk will reduce the likelihood of the occurrence if applied after will reduce the consequences of the risk, Remedial reduces the consequences of the risk that has occurred. Pure risk refers to risks that are beyond human control and result in a loss or no loss with no possibility of financial gain. Fires, floods and other natural disasters are categorized as pure risk, as are unforeseen incidents, such as acts of terrorism or untimely deaths. Speculative risk is a category of risk that can be taken on voluntarily and will either result in a profit or loss such as gambling The main goal of safety and health programs is to prevent workplace injuries, illnesses, and deaths, as well as the suffering and financial hardship these events can cause for workers, their families, and employers. The recommended practices use a proactive approach to managing workplace safety and health. The idea is, to begin with, a basic program and simple goals and grow from there. If you focus on achieving goals, monitoring performance, and evaluating outcomes, your workplace can progress along the path to higher levels of safety and health achievement. Employers will find that implementing these recommended practices also brings other benefits. Safety and health programs help businesses:  Prevent workplace injuries and illnesses  Improve compliance with laws and regulations  Reduce costs, including significant reductions in workers' compensation premiums  Engage workers  Enhance their social responsibility goals  Increase productivity and enhance overall business operations When design safety program consider: Psychological factor such as individual differences, motivation, emotion, attitude, and learning All risk assessments follow the following general steps:  1. Identify the hazard or risk  2. Decide or determine who could be affected  3. Assess or evaluate how they might be affected  4. Record the results or findings  5. Review the results on a recurring basis What is NIOSH's three step process for conducting occupational risk assessments?  1. Identify the hazard  2. Assess the exposure-response relationship  3. Characterize the workplace risk. What are the steps in the EPA Human Health Risk Assessment?  Hazard Identification  Dose-Response Assessment  Exposure Assessment  Risk Characterization Types of Risk assessment Application: Generic vs specific vs dynamic Dynamic Risk Assessment: Those that are constantly ongoing, The continuous process of identifying hazards, assessing risk, taking action to eliminate or reduce risk, monitoring and reviewing, in the rapidly changing circumstances of an operational incident. Working in an environment that could suddenly change. Some workers that commonly use dynamic risk assessments include:  Emergency service workers   Tradespeople  Care workers  Retail staff  Security operatives Formal hazard analysis: Inductive and deductive Inductive: bottom-up, future, hypothetical based on the experience conclusion more the observations FEMA or FEMCA, FHA , Specific to General Deductive: top-down future behavior concluded from a number of premises may be true or false. FTA, Fishbone , General to Specific Berlo's model Source---Message----Channel---Receiver Tangible is a cost that is seen instantly such as in purchasing products, paying employees etc., Equipment maintenance and employee salaries. Direct Intangible- Indirect cost is not seen but its effects are perceived later in future not monetary or are difficult to quantify. Risk can be subjective (non-quantifiable), or numerical (quantifiable) as CBA Risk management can be defined as: The eradication or minimization of the adverse effects of risks to which an organisation is exposed. Risk homeostasis: theory posits that people at any moment in time compare the amount of risk they perceive with their target level of risk and will adjust their behaviour in an attempt to eliminate any discrepancies between the two. System availability: A measure of the degree to which an item is in an operable and committable state. Independent events do not have an effect on the probability of occurrence of any other event. Mutually exclusive events cannot happen together. It is possible that independent events could happen at the same time. While all are appropriate techniques for use in the evaluation of a product, no single method can be used to completely evaluate a product. The first analysis should be done at the time the product is conceived (design) Fault tree analysis is an example of a deductive analysis. Deductive analyses start with a top-level event, and logically determine its specific causes. Some FTA's can be qualitative - some can be quantitative. No FTA is inductive. THERP, a technique for human error predictions was developed by the Scandia Corporation. It provides a means for quantitatively evaluating the contributions of human error to the degradation of product quality. FTA : Major system failures The Monte Carlo Method of simulation is the name of the method used to analyze complex trees. It requires the use of a computer since a reasonably complex tree will require significant calculations to get a reliable answer for the reliability of the main event. The "bathtub" curve is a stress-related depiction that describes the relationship between component failure and exposure Failures occurring during early stages of use occur during the burn-in period. Using the reliability formula: Rt = e-λτ = 1/mean time between failures Rt = e (-15,000/5,000) Rt = 0.0498 If a system consists of 100 components in series, each with a reliability of 0.9900, the reliability of the entire system is: 1) 0.366 2) 0.634 3) 0.990 4) 0.999 Series, multiply the reliabilities of all components. R = 0.99100 = 0.366 Reliability bonding is not considered appropriate when assessing the reliability of a system. 4P(d) = Qy [P(s)(n-y)] , y = # of successes n = # of trials Q = Probability of Failure P(s) = Probability of Success P(d) = Probability of Defective Hypothesis test: Statistically it is possible to get a sample where the sample statistic falls outside the acceptance region but the null hypothesis is indeed true Type I error: rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true Type II error: Accepting the null hypothesis when it is false In a behavioral observation process, feedback is generally given by posting group results such as the % of safe behaviors observed. B. F. Skinner is generally considered to be the father of behavioralism. Risk analysis is a scientific activity, the result of which is an estimate of risk. Risk management must determine whether the risk is acceptable and if not, what methods will be used to reduce the risk to an acceptable level. A chi-square statistic equal to 0.01 means that the result is statistically significant with a probability of error of 1% (0.01). An event tree analysis ETA is an inductive technique that explores different responses to "challenges". Naked man is the technique that envisions a "primitive" or unprotected system and systematically evaluates the effect of adding various controls through a brainstorming approach. A six-step process to analyze and control human errors. The process involves selecting an event, identifying the tasks associated with the event, separating specific behaviors of each task and assigning basic error rates A change analysis is a technique that provides formal documentation and feedback of safety analyses performed on changes (to the end product) throughout the life cycle. The uncertainty of risk: Exposure, consequence, and likelihood contribute Three categories of hazards: Environmental issues, human and material failure, and inherent properties A FMEA is upward the right systems safety tool to use to analyze a single failure or a single unit failure. Often FMEA is used in conjunction with a fault tree analysis to evaluate a product's safety. FTA logic can identify possible failures and a FMEA can be used to analyze each failure event. ETA: A method for identifying various possible outcomes Failure: When a system, subsystem, component, or part departs from its intended design parameters, the departure from design is called a failure. An operating and support hazard analysis is a process to identify hazards and recommend risk reduction alternatives in procedurally controlled activities during all phases of intended use. Single failure point is a single item of hardware, the failure of which would lead directly to loss of life, vehicle, or mission. Safety-critical computer software components are those computer software components whose errors can result in a hazard or loss of predictability or control of a system. A system hazard analysis is a formal analysis of a system and the interrelationships among its various parts to determine the real and potential hazards within the system, and to suggest ways to reduce and control those hazards. A common cause failure analysis is an analysis technique that is used primarily to identify a single event or causal factor common to or shared by multiple components. This analysis is looking for failures that can cause multiple "independent" safeguards to fail. For example, a common cause failure of redundant cooling water pumps may be the loss of electricity to both pumps. Sneak circuit analysis is a technique to determine an unintended energy route that can allow an undesired function to occur, prevent functions from occurring, or adversely affect the timing of functions. Inductive analysis methods are bottom-up methods that start from known causes and identify possible effects (FMEA) Deductive analysis methods are top-down methods that start from known effects and seek possible causes (FTA) Preliminary hazard analysis is a technique used to conduct an initial hazard evaluation that can then be used to make informed decisions about the product's design and manufacture. Preliminary hazard analysis is the most common tool used by the systems safety practitioner. It is used at the beginning stages of the development of a product. Success Rate = successes / attempts Failure Rate = 1 failure / attempts Series R failure = sum of R Parallel failure = R1XR2…..RN The critical incident technique is a method of identifying errors and unsafe conditions that contribute to both potential and actual injurious accidents within a given population by means of a stratified random sample of participants and observers selected from within this population. Mock-up looks like the product but does not function. A breadboard works but does not resemble the final product. Descriptive epidemiology is the observation of outcomes among study groups not created experimentally followed by an examination of dose-response relationships. The key concept is that the epidemiologist observes existing groups of people and obtains observation data. No hypothesis is being tested as in an experimental study. ASTM International was is the American Standards for Testing and Materials ANSI is the American National Standards Institute NFPA is the National Fire Protection Association IARC is the International Agency for Research on Cancer- for carcinogen For effective risk communication, you should coordinate and collaborate with other credible sources, not only people who agree with your view point. In addition to a, b, and c, you should: 1. Be honest, frank, and open 2. Listen to the publics specific concerns 3. Plan carefully and evaluate your efforts with a focus on your strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Occurrence insurance covers incidents that occur during the policy period. The policy in force on the date of the event must cover the loss. Claims made by insurance covers incidents based on the date that the insured becomes aware of the claim and notifies the insurance carrier. Dry ice has a vapor pressure of 844 PSIA. It will certainly cause the glass jar to explode and release CO2. An indemnification agreement is a contract that protects one party of a transaction from the risks or liabilities created by the other party of the transaction. Compensation cost = gross /Profit margin % Loss ratio = losses /(E modifier X Manual premium) CBA Ratio = Benefits /Cost It should be above 1, payback period The expiernece modification rate is less than 1 is very good Behavior-Based Safety process Form assessment team(s) Extract behaviors that were involved in past accidents/incidents Developed definitions that describe the safe behavior Compile datasheet using identified behaviors Determine observation boundaries Train observers Gather data Determine barrier removal process Form barrier removal teams There are five conditions that dramatically increase the likelihood of success: Safety Leadership; Established Integrated Safety Management System; Employee Empowerment and Participation in Safety; Organization’s Safety Culture; Measurement and Accountability. Resources utilized for extraction of critical behaviors:  Accident / Incident Reports  Job Safety Analysis, Job Hazard Analysis, and PPE Assessments  Task Observations- Conducting observations of typical work tasks will  Employee Interviews- Interviewing employees from various work groups  Brainstorming- Group interviews can help identify critical behaviors Consequences have the greatest impact on employee behavior Soon, certain, and positive consequences Modern management theory recognizes that consequences must be positive or negative? Positive or negative -very powerful motivator Modern management theory recognizes that consequences must be immediate or future? Immediate or future Modern management theory recognizes that consequences must be certain or uncertain? Certain or uncertain According to ISO 19011, what are the seven principles for auditing? - Integrity - Fair presentation - Confidentiality - Due professional care - Independence - Evidence-based approach - Risk-based approach What is the insurance that is for low probability, high-cost events? Catastrophe insurance What is the insurance between a primary insurer and secondary insurer where the secondary agrees to cover all or part of the losses of the primary insurer? Reinsurance What is the portion of risk or amount of insurance the company chooses not to retain? Retrocession The Human Factors Theory by David Yates says when quantifying accident causes, there are three broad categories: - Overload - Inappropriate Worker Response - Inappropriate Activities Who is responsible for conducting an Incident Investigation? The front-line supervisor. Petersen's Accident/Incident theory? Causes of accidents/incidents are human error and/or system failure. Vicarious Liability Assigns liability for an injury to a person who did not cause the injury but who has a particular legal relationship to the person who did act negligently. Seven Cardinal Rules of Risk Communication (Covello and Allen 1988) 1. Accept and involve the public as a partner. Your goal is to produce an informed public, not to defuse public concerns or replace actions. 2. Plan carefully and evaluate your efforts. Different goals, audiences, and media require different actions. 3. Listen to the public's specific concerns. People often care more about trust, credibility, competence, fairness, and empathy than about statistics and details. 4. Be honest, frank, and open. Trust and credibility are difficult to obtain; once lost, they are almost impossible to regain. 5. Work with other credible sources. Conflicts and disagreements among organizations make communication with the public much more difficult. 6. Meet the needs of the media. The media are usually more interested in politics than risk, simplicity than complexity, danger than safety. 7. Speak clearly and with compassion. Never let your efforts prevent your acknowledging the tragedy of an illness, injury, or death. People can understand risk information, but they may still not agree with you; some people will not be satisfied. Safety through design is defined as the integration of hazard analysis and risk assessment methods early in the design and engineering stages and the taking of the actions necessary so that the risks of injury or damage are at an acceptable level. As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) and promotes a management review, the intent of which is to achieve acceptable risk levels. As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA). According to NRC, ALARA means making every reasonable effort to maintain exposures to ionizing radiation as far below the dose limits as practical. Best Available Control Technology (BACT). This level of control is required for new criteria pollutant sources in attainment areas. BACT is typically defined in the permitting process and can vary from state to state. Us use is determined through consideration of several factors including energy and environmental impacts as well as economics. Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT). The EPA 1990 CAAA changed the regulation of air toxins from substance-specific, health-based standards to industry-specific, technology-based requirements. Major hazardous air pollutants (HAP) sources must use MACT to reduce their emissions. Preventative Controls that deter problems before they arise Detective Controls designed to discover control problems that were not prevented Remedial Controls that attempt to reduce the consequences of a risk that has occurred. Life care plan comprehensive report that identifies a persons medical condition and ongoing care requirements including financial needs and expenses after suffering an occupation injury/illness. According to ISO 45001, what are the six elements of an audit process: 1. plan, establish, implement, and maintain and audit program 2. define the audit criteria and scope of audit 3. Select the auditors 4. Ensure the results of the audits are reported to relevant managers 5. Take action to address nonconformities 6. Retain documented information USTs must be 10%+ of accumulated regulated substances underground