Edexcel Geography A-Level Superpowers Detailed Notes PDF

Edexcel Geography A-level Superpowers Detailed Notes www.pmt.education Superpower Theory A superpower is a nation which has the ability to project its influence around the world. This global influence means they have a big say in decision making and they are often a global force for change. The four pillars of Superpower status are: ▪ Economic – A large economy enables a nation to control trade. They can also use their money to invest in a strong military force and exploit natural resources. They may also own the debt of other nations thereby having power over them. ▪ Military – A nation can use their military to threaten or invade other countries (hard power) or to achieve geo-political goals (such as UN Peacekeeping Missions). ▪ Political & Ideology – The ability to influence other countries in a way which suits their desires or match their political systems. Ideology is closely linked with politics, as many states may force their ideology through policies. ▪ Cultural – Projecting a nation’s cultural values on others can change the way other populations think and align their ideology with the superpower’s culture. Culture is often spread via social media, films, music, food, art etc. The westernisation of culture is an important aspect of power. Another factor which a nation can use to exercise their superpower status is resources. - Physical resources like oil and gas (if a nation has the means to exploit them) can help a nation develop their economy and therefore their economic power through trade. If these countries are dependent on the superpower for their natural resources then the superpower will have power over them e.g. Russia providing gas to Europe. - Human resources – A large human workforce if utilised properly can help to develop a nation’s economy. For example, the emerging superpowers China and India both have large populations which are being used in manufacturing to develop their economies. Many would consider the current global superpower as the USA, closely followed by the EU. However, this hasn’t always been the case. There are many theories and ideas trying to explain why different powers occur at different times: The Power Spectrum The Power Spectrum describes the different approaches a country may have in influencing their power or culture on another. The Power Spectrum Hard power Soft power Using military and direct political intervention Attracting national governments and to change or influence the behaviour of other individuals to their country through countries. Attractive culture & lifestyle Military action Sought-after political advice Threat of trade restrictions Foreign policies that encourage (embargos) migration Use of economic sanctions to damage Trade alliances a nation’s economy Foreign direct investment in Owning the debt of other countries business, infrastructure or facilities www.pmt.education Mackinder’s Geo-Strategic Location Theory The British geographer Mackinder classified a region of Eurasia as the ‘Heartland’. This area stretches from Russia to China and from the Arctic to the Himalayas. He argued that the Heartland was a geo-strategic location because whoever controlled it would control large amount of physical and human resources. The theory was influential because it contributed to policies of containment: - After WWI, attempts were made to limit Germany’s expansion into this strategic area. - After WWII, NATO allies tried to contain the Soviets from expanding into south and west Europe. However, as technology has advanced and made transportation easier the shrinking world has reduced the locational importance of the Heartland. Resources can easily be transported around the world, advances in military technology means armies can have more global influence without needing to colonise other nations. This has allowed nations such as America, which is on the exterior of the Heartland, to take over centre stage as a global Superpower. Wallerstein’s World Systems Theory The World Systems Theory identifies two different economic areas within the world - the core and the periphery. Core regions are economic powerhouses and therefore control most aspects of global trade such as trade agreements and trading currency. The core regions trade with those in the periphery who often provide labour and materials for the core nations. www.pmt.education The theory tries to explain inequality in wealth and development across the world. In the past relationships between the core and periphery were purely exploitative (colonialism) and the periphery was forced to provide their natural resources through means of hard power such as military force or occupation. For example, the British Empire’s exploitation of India for natural resources. In more recent times this relationship centres around trade agreements (soft power) which often benefit the core regions more than they benefit the periphery. These trade agreements often favour the core nations. www.pmt.education Rostow’s Modernisation Theory Rostow believed that countries pass through five stages as they grow economically and become developed. This development can be shown as stages of growth over time: Traditional Society - The country’s economy is based predominantly on primary industry - agriculture, small-scale mining, foraging and fishing. There is minimal technology or scientific knowledge which protects the country’s traditional culture, religion and values. Pre-conditions for Take Off - There is a demand for raw materials and trade by external countries. A rise in construction of infrastructure will lead to an increase in businesses and FDI. Gradually, the industry centres around manufacturing rather than agriculture as individual families can earn more money from a reliable job (unlike agriculture which is seasonal and can be affected by extreme weather). Take Off - Here there is rapid Industrialisation, creating a large surge of employment opportunities and productivity. Take-off can also be a period of environmental degradation, as the nation lacks laws to protect its natural surroundings and people from exploitation. This is often fuelled by relaxed laws and regulations protecting the natural son accelerates, Drive to Maturity - Over a period of time, the growing economy will encourage new industries and investment, creating further jobs, improving services through increased tax. This is a positive feedback mechanism of gradually improving living conditions. High Mass Consumption - Developed countries, in Rostow’s opinion, are countries who are capitalistic and consumers hold the most valuable opinion. Often goods are catered towards these markets, as families have disposable income to spend. Rostow’s Modernisation Theory can be closely linked to Clarke-Fisher’s Model (see Regeneration Detailed Notes); as a country progresses through stages of modernisation, the composition of its economic industries will change. www.pmt.education Criticisms of the Theory There are limitation to Rostow’s model. It is based largely on American and European development (mass consumption and capitalism to create profit) and therefore ignores the stages of growth other nations who do not fit this mould may go through (e.g. Bolivia’s recent sustainable development). Also, some nations may have large reserves of natural resources which allow them to skip some of the stages of development e.g. Saudi Arabia. Rostow’s Model only considers the advancement of development, so doesn’t describe a nation that is declining. Some examples of declining states include: The USSR (post-cold war) - following ‘loss’ in the Cold War, the USSR became bankrupt and disbanded into the nations of today - Ukraine, Belarus, etc. The new Russia faced economic recession and social deprivation. Zimbabwe - For a large period of time, the government has been corrupt, limiting the country’s development regardless of its level of industrial capacity. Rostow’s model only considers a country in isolation from the world, where the development is the sole responsibility of the country itself. However, this is not true; in an increasingly connected globalised world, the development of a country may be limited by international politics or competition for trade by other states. Superpower Patterns over Time Types of Polarity: A nation’s power is not fixed. Many interacting factors can lead to a country gaining or losing power. Our current uni-polar world is rapidly changing as emerging superpowers start to take a seat at the global table. This change can lead to different possible scenarios: ▪ Unipolar world – One country dominates e.g. the USA currently or the British Empire during colonial times ▪ Bi-polar world – Where there are two main superpowers with opposing ideas and ideologies e.g. the USA and USSR during the Cold War. ▪ Multi-polar world – Where there are several powers and emerging powers competing for power and global influence. Colonial Era – The British Empire Britain ruled a quarter of the world’s land and a third of the world’s population during its peak. The Royal Navy dominated the world’s oceans and was double the size of Germany’s (the next largest). The British Empire’s expansion was based on hard power; it invaded other countries and colonised them to maintain its control. During this time, the world was considered uni-polar. www.pmt.education Colonialism had many impacts on the countries involved: Successes of Colonial Power: ▪ Railway lines were built throughout the country and were used to transport goods and the army quickly between places. ▪ The English language spread throughout the Empire, which has allowed Commonwealth countries to become outsourcing services and participate in business. ▪ Education for all colonial states was improved - schools were set up & curriculum established. This has led to increased international migration to fill skills shortages in other countries after WWII. Negative impacts of Colonial Power: ▪ The majority of crops grown in colonial states were bought by the British at very low prices and then sold off by Britain for large amounts (Neo-colonial Theory - see below). This means that farmers and primary manufacturers were left with little profit to invest in their own futures. ▪ Many colonial states did not have their own governments, which caused severe protests for independence and unstable countries when made independant. ▪ Discriminating policies were established to segregate the British migrants from natives. These policies have remained in some countries until recent years. In the 20th Century, many empires collapsed: ▪ After the war, many colonial powers were bankrupt as they had to spend a lot during the war and so they couldn’t afford to control and maintain their colonies. ▪ After the wars, colonial powers focused mainly on rebuilding their home countries and so they focused less on the colonies. ▪ Anti-colonial movements gained popularity, and increasing demand for independence forced colonial armies out www.pmt.education Neo-Colonialism Neo-colonialism was first used to describe the continued dependence of former colonies on other countries after their independence. However, it has now become used to describe the exploitative relationship between more powerful developed countries who are using their relationship with less developed countries for their own benefit. Frank’s Dependency Model explains the cycle of neo-colonialism, where the neo-colony becomes dependent on the neo-colonial power controlling it. Past - Colonialism During the colonial era, Empires exploited their colonies or a variety of commodities: sugar, cotton, tea. For example, the development of Lancashire was based from the cheap import of cotton from plantations in America; cotton would be manufactured in large mills, through a largely mechanised process (faster rate of production and cheaper to run) so Lancashire companies made large profits. Now - Neo-colonialism Mozambique has given fishing rights to China, in return for infrastructure (hospitals, airports, roads). China actually has 1 million of its people living in Africa and has invested over $40 billion into African nations. This may sound quite fair, but local fishermen are now out-competed, losing their source of income and instead having to work for Chinese fishing boats for less money. The IMF and World Bank have both been accused of being ‘neo-colonial’. They provide loans to developing nations, but with high rates of repayment and conditions if the developing nation is unable to repay. Therefore, developing nations become ‘trapped’ in a cycle of debt and have to open their economies to private companies (governments lose assets and income, making them even less likely to repay their debts). www.pmt.education Bipolar World - The Cold War The Cold War lasted from 1945 to 1990, and was a time of geopolitical tension between the USA and USSR. Both were dominant powers and were vying for more global influence and power. The USA is a democratic society which was based on a capitalist economy. Whereas the USSR was under communist rule and had a centrally-owned economy. Capitalism Communism/ Centrally-Owned Economy Features -Private ownership of property -Government owns land and businesses and businesses Wages are determined by government -Wages are based on supply & -Profits are taken by government and demand and level of skills invested into services -People have a right to make a -Supply of goods controlled by the profit and keep it government -Ability to buy and sell goods in a free market with little restriction Examples USA, UK, France, Japan USSR, China, Cuba During the cold war: The USSR installed communist governments in Eastern Europe (e.g. in Poland and Hungary). These countries were of strategic importance to the USSR as they provided a ‘shield’ in case the West attacked Russia. The border between Eastern and Western Europe became known as The Iron Curtain and was heavily defended by opposing parties. The countries supporting the USSR formed the Warsaw Pact (a military agreement of alliance). The USA created NATO, which its allies joined to cooperate military powers. After 1945, the USA provided billions of dollars’ worth of aid to many European nations to rebuild after the wars. The USA also invested significant amount into Japan, Singapore and The Philippines in order to protect these countries from being influenced by communism. The Space Race became a competition of knowledge and economic capacity between the USA and USSR. Despite the fact that the USSR sent the first man (Yuri Gagarin) and first satellite (Sputnik) into space, many believe that the USA won after sending Apollo 11 to the moon. The term ‘cold’ is used to describe the war as there was no large-scale direct fighting between the two sides. Instead the two sides supported opposing wars which are described as proxy wars. ▪ Vietnam War – The USA fought directly against groups which were supported by China and the USSR. ▪ Korean War – Korea was divided into the South which was supported by the US and the North which was supported by China and the USSR. After the collapse of the USSR, the USA became the global dominating force again. www.pmt.education Modern Day & Future Power - Multipolar? The past shows us large, singular forces dominating global power. However, as countries who were previously held back economically by colonialism begin to develop rapidly a new wave of nations are now vying for a seat on the main stage. These emerging economies tend to be based on free-market capitalism. This is becoming increasingly dominant throughout the world whilst other economic systems have become weaker: - Socialist economies collapsed in the USSR and Eastern Europe. - China has moved away from socialism to a model known as state capitalism. - There has been reform in communist Cuba allowing some limited private ownership of businesses. Currently, there is a divide into two groups of states: ▪ BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa ▪ G20 – Includes the EU and countries like Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea, Saudi, Mexico The G20 economies account for 85% of the world’s GDP and 85% of the world’s trade, hence are more influential. However, with changing industries and the adoption of new political approaches & ideology, BRICS may overtake G20 and become most influential. Emerging Powers There are many strengths and weaknesses of emerging countries’ powers. An emerging country is a state that has a developing economy or government and has large projected growth. Exam tip - do not refer to the BRICS as one entity in your answers. They are different countries with vastly different characteristics and should be treated individually. Brazil Russia China India -Brazil is important -It is the 9th largest -China is a major player in Between 1997 and regionally for South economy in the global investment, the 2015, annual America as it world and has large Chinese have invested growth rates produces more reserves of oil and heavily in developing averaged 7% which than 50% of S. gas. However It is countries especially in is much higher than America’s GDP overly dependent Africa. MDCs. -It has large on oil and gas for -A lot has been invested in -Widespread use of reserves of natural revenue, which is modern infrastructure like English has been resources not sustainable high speed rail throughout beneficial as it has -It has energy and income for the the country. attracted many food security. It is future. -Due to its large population, TNCs. self-sufficient in -The country has GDP per capita is only 10% -Infrastructure like producing and been hit with EU of USA’s. energy and water sourcing its own sanctions that have -Many of its industries supply as well as food and energy weakened the copies foreign ideas and so transport is poor, resources. Ruble and the it isn’t very innovative. power cuts are -The economy economy. -In 2009, only 2% of China’s frequent. www.pmt.education repeatedly faces -It is the most adult population graduated -The government boom and bust unequal emerging from university. has a lot of debt. phases, that nation, where the -Rising wages in China -Society is very severely hamper richest 1% control have led to TNCs moving to unequal and more Brazil’s 71% of total wealth. cheaper countries like than 20% of people development. Bangladesh. live in poverty. - Its ageing population combined with its one Child Policy may cause its economy to collapse entirely. - Brazil has been -It is a permanent -Unlike the USA, China -India is the world’s very politically member of the UN doesn’t really get involved largest democracy unstable in recent Security Council. in global crises or aid -It is a member of years. -Relations with the towards other countries, the G20 and was a - Corruption is rife EU are strained and limiting China’s international founding member of throughout the its annexation of relations. the UN. country. Crimea -China’s government is run -It has poor - Since 2015, exacerbated this. by an authoritarian party. geopolitical leadership has -Has tense relationships relations with drastically with many SE Asian neighbours like changed. The nations. China and Pakistan. President was impeached in 2015, leading to uncertainty. In 2018, the far-right Bolsonaro was elected. -Its military is -It has nuclear -China’s People Liberation -It has the 4th insignificant; only weapons and a Army has the world’s largest military in playing a small large militar.y largest army and has terms of personnel regional role and -Russia has nuclear weapons. and weaponry no international intervened in Syria - China’s army (PLA) is -It has nuclear involvement. with airstrikes which dated; despite its large weapons. has damaged numbers of soldiers the - India has come to relations with other army is very poorly month-long countries. equipped. standoffs with -The majority of neighbouring China Russia’s fleet and to maintain its aircraft are ageing border. and unsuitable for modern times. www.pmt.education -The population of -The population of -The population of 1.38 -The population is 210 million is the 144 million is quite billion allows for a vast 1.27 billion (largest largest in South large, but largely labour pool, allowing after China). America. spread across China’s economy to -The majority of -The population is Russia’s vast lands, increase. Indians are young very young. leading to isolation -By 2020, it is expected that and so there is a -Fertility rates have and lack of 12% of the population will large pool of labour decreased development of be over 65 which will available. significantly so the many regions. require expensive support - However, there is population may -Russia’s through healthcare and much outward decline in the population has social care migration of India's future. been declining in -China has little inwards youth, which may recent years as migration so they are lead to a declining birth rates are very unable to attract talent and future population low. skills from abroad that they and brain drain of -The population is may lack. skilled workers. ageing which is impacting the economy. -Brazil has a global - Russia has little -China’s influence is -Bollywood which is reputation as a cultural influence. growing as they are the world’s largest footballing nation - However, its investing in other countries film industry outside and has won many growing influence in (such as Africa). of Hollywood, world cups. USA (Trump’s producing 1200 -It hosted the election), military -Some Cantonese food has films annually Olympics + assistance to been adopted in other -Indian food is very Paralympics in Nigeria (to combat countries. common and Boko Haram) and 2016 and the FIFA -China has very little global important in many Syria (controversial World Cup in 2014. influence on culture. parts of the world. air strikes) suggests that Russia’s global influence is expanding. -Deforestation is a - One of the most -China is the world’s largest -India is one of the major issue with ecologically emitter of CO2, producing most biodiverse large swathes of stressed 33% of the world’s countries in the the Amazon being landscapes due to emissions. world with various cut down for human degradation -Rivers throughout China plant and animal agricultural and -> extraction of have been polluted with species. commercial natural resources chemicals from factories. -Pollution is a major purposes. damages -Large amounts of land problem as India is surroundings, -Pollution is across the world in places the world’s third salinization and another major like the Amazon rainforest largest emitter of overgrazing is problem from are being cut down in order CO2. causing soils to deteriorate, to export good to China -India has some of www.pmt.education mining and oil improper waste where demand from the world’s largest spills. disposal. consumers is rising rapidly. and worst urban slums which have damaged the environment. The future is uncertain. However, there is some ideas of how global superpower status could change. Stability – Countries around the world could form their own alliances and another Cold War could occur. Resources – There could be strong economic and population growth in Asia but along with high demand from the West, worldwide demand for food could increase 35%, 40% for water and 50% for energy by 2030. This could lead severe shortages, high prices and conflict over resources. Military – A new arms race could occur as China expands its naval and air power. Economy – If Asia were to become dominant, then the global economy would depend on the health of NICs in Asia rather than the West. Alternative Superpowers - IGOs & TNCs There are some IGOs and TNCs that have more power than a country. Often, they have links to a current superpower and have economic or political influence over others. The World Bank and IMF The World Bank and IMF provides loans to developing countries. These loans aim to help the country develop. For example, They have both been been criticised due to them providing funds for projects that have been unethical and have damaged the environment e.g. rainforest clearance to make way for developments. They have also been criticised because they have given loans to countries who are incapable to pay back their loans. These countries, in an attempt to reduce their debt, have had to agree to SAPs forcing them to open up their markets and privatise their companies (more details in Globalisation Detailed Notes). The USA and EU have the highest proportion of voting rights within both these organisations, so their interests are closely tied with the IGOs, rather than the interests of the indebted countries. The WTO The WTO aims to ensure free global trade and opportunities are equal for all countries. The WTO generally aims to reduce protectionist measures. However, it has been criticised because it has failed to stop developed nations from protecting its own industries. For example, the USA and EU which give subsidies to their farmers but this affected developing www.pmt.education nations as farmers in developing nations have lost out as their produce becomes less competitive due to it being more expensive The WEF (World Economic Forum) The WEF is a Swiss not-for-profit organisation which promotes public-private co-operation The organisation meets every year in Davos where there are thousands of politicians, delegates, economists etc. It costs $19,000 to attend, which make attendance for small businesses or under-represented countries limited. Global TNCs The largest TNCs in the world originate from superpowers and emerging nations. TNCs come in 2 different types: Publicly traded TNCs who are owned by various shareholders generally pension funds and banks State-owned TNCs which are owned by governments through 100% share or majority In 2014, the world’s 500 largest companies generated $31.2 trillion in revenue and employed over 65 million people. Many TNCs in emerging superpowers are state-owned. TNCs have become dominant and more influential than IGOs due to many reasons: - Economies of scale has allowed them to reduce their costs and out-compete their smaller competitors, gaining huge profits in the process. - Their ability of to borrow money has allowed them to invest in new technology - The move towards capitalism across the world has opened up more opportunities for them TNCs have influence over global culture and the ownership of innovation and patents. Europe and America dominate ownership of major TNCs and through which they have spread Western culture across the world. Companies such as Coca-Cola and McDonald’s are recognised globally. Most of the world’s global media is dominated by the USA, so their views and ideology is easily spread around the world. American and Western culture isn’t always adopted, for example: - Cultural dishes from Asia, such as curry and sushi, are quickly becoming more popular than American or European cuisine. - Certain aspects of American culture like American football have been successfully adopted across the globe. TNCs and governments around the world invest heavily in research and development in order to develop new products and processes that are unique. Intellectual Property laws protect these new inventions through: Patents for technologies and systems Copyright for music, books and artworks www.pmt.education Trademarks for designs like logos Anyone who wants to use these innovations has to pay royalty fees to the inventor or designer. In the past, patents have only been available to Western TNCs, due to the high cost of application. However, there has been a recent increase in alternative countries with patents and intellectual property, such as China. UN Security Council Arguably the most powerful IGO in the world, the UN consists of 5 permanent member (USA, UK, France, China & Russia) and 10 non-permanent rotating members which change every 2 years. The UN has the internationally-recognised power to: ▪ Sanctions can be applied to countries that are deemed to be a security risk (e.g. North Korea), harbouring terrorism, threatening or invading other states. ▪ Military force against another country can be authorised ▪ UN Peacekeeping Force can be authorised to reduce conflict and tensions or improve development and quality of life for locals. It could be said that the UN Security Council works in an imperfect way because: ▪ Any of the permanent member states can veto a decision ▪ The USA, UK & France usually vote together whilst Russia and China generally vote together which leads to no progress within the council The International Court of Justice The court (based in the Hague, The Netherlands) settles disputes between different UN member states. The ICJ has 15 judges of which 5 are from the West with the remaining from other parts of the world. It aims to achieve geopolitical stability and hold governments accountable for actions against the welfare and human rights of their people. UN Climate Change Conferences Finally, the UN also aims to encourage the protection of the environment and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The changing attitude of many state governments has been caused by several important conferences: Montreal Protocol - Finalised in 1987. Aimed to stop the use of CFCs and Halons, both highly damaging to the ozone layer. The Kyoto Protocol - Held in 1997. Aimed to generally reduce greenhouse gas emissions The Paris Agreement - Held in 2015. Highest number of signatures/ states participating to date. However, key emitters such as the USA have withdrawn since. www.pmt.education Government Alliances & Cooperation Governments may form alliances with other countries for a variety of reasons: to reduce conflict, co-operate efforts or combine intelligence, strengthen trade partnerships, improve and protect the natural environment. Military Alliances NATO - NATO is a group of nations which was formed during the Cold War and consists of allies of the USA. Its main policy dictates that if one member gets attacked, other members will come and assist that country. - Recent Russian military activity in Ukraine and Eastern Europe has brought NATO members together as they don’t want Russia to gain control of more land and influence more people. This has led to an escalation of tensions and NATO has sent in more troops. ANZUS Treaty - This is a security agreement between Australia, New Zealand and the US. The aim of the treaty is to cooperate on military matters in the Pacific. The treaty has allowed the US to maintain a presence in the Pacific. Economic Alliances European Union - The EU began with just six founding nations but has since increased to include 28 member states. The EU promotes free trade and movement of goods and people between member states. There is increasing tensions within different EU states from those who want greater integration and cooperation and those who want to leave (e.g. Brexit). ASEAN - This consists of 10 South-East Asian nations. The organisation was formed to encourage greater cooperation between the different states and also increase economic growth in the region. This cooperation is important since there has been historic conflict between ASEAN States. NAFTA - This consists of free trade between Mexico, Canada and the US. Many companies in Canada and the US have benefitted as they have relocated many of their manufacturing plants to Mexico due to lower labour costs which in turn have increased their profit margins. However, this has come at a cost to many Americans and Canadians as many have lost their jobs, leading to a rise of extreme political opinions - Donald Trump has vowed to leave the free trade area in order to protect and bring back job to the USA (protectionism). Environmental Alliances Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - This organisation was established by the UN in 1988. Its aims are to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the harm humans are doing to the environment. Its success can be argued, since many governments still pollute and are not held accountable by the many policies and protocols they may have signed. Global Environmental Concerns Emerging economies and the growing wealth of many countries has led to increased consumption of various resources. High resource consumption (the last stage in Rostow’s Modernisation Model) has caused many environmental problems: - Urban air quality in emerging power cities is very dangerous due to poor vehicle engines. www.pmt.education - Imports and exports have increased so CO2 has increased through increased transport. This means goods have a larger carbon footprint. - Deforestation has accelerated as people cut down trees in order to grow crops for food or biofuel. The Growing Middle Class In the future, the number of people who are affluent or middle class is expected to rise significantly, especially in emerging countries such as the BRICSs. As a population becomes richer they start to use more resources. For example, they live in bigger houses which require more heating, they have more appliances such as washing machines and dishwashers which use energy and water, they have more vehicles which cause more pollution, they can afford to go on holidays and use aeroplanes to travel the world. The rise of the middle-classes will cause pressure on existing resources, such as: Food security - There will be more demand for volume and variety of food types. Land used for staple foods will be converted to produce meat and dairy products, which are more expensive to produce and release more greenhouse gases. This will cause food prices to rise, which would affect the poorest worst. Water security - Many emerging countries already suffer from water shortages. By 2030, it is estimated that 60% of places in India will face water scarcity. This could also worsen food security, as droughts induce crop failures and famine. Energy security - Oil demand is expected to rise by 30% by 2030. Prices of oil will increase and there may be shortages, causing electricity blackouts. Countries with vast reserves are likely to be in a good position (e.g. Russia) whereas countries not self-sufficient will be left vulnerable to exploitation. Resource security - Demand for rare earth minerals increases leading to higher prices. For example, the demand for lithium based batteries is very high and could be hard to meet. There could be severe shortages for basic metals like copper, tin, and platinum This increased pressure on resources will not only make the resources more scarce but could increase tensions between nations (between those who have an excess of resources and those who need them) and increase prices. Reducing emissions The emissions of developed countries is reducing. However, emissions in developing and emerging nations are increasing significantly. This is a controversial issue. - Developed countries have already gone through a period of industrialisation where they had high emissions, as developing nations are just entering this stage of development now then why shouldn’t they be allowed to do the same? - The reason why developed countries emissions have decreased is because they have outsourced their manufacturing to less-developed countries who are effectively polluting on the developed countries behalf. Some critics see the EU’s and USA’s disapproval of developing countries’ emissions as a reluctance to allow them to develop. www.pmt.education In recent years, many attitudes towards Climate Change have shifted. These differences in how to act about climate change could increase political tensions between countries and have long-lasting negative impacts on the environment. ▪ Since Donald Trump’s election, America has pulled out of many environmental initiatives and programmes. He has given permission for oil drilling in Alaskan Refuge parks, contradicting the protection Obama tried to implement on these ecologically delicate areas. This will increase carbon emissions produced by the USA. ▪ The EU sees climate change as a 21st Century Problem and is working towards policies and programmes to reduce emissions such as the development of wide-scale renewable energy production. ▪ In 2014, China agreed to work towards an emissions peak in 2030 but only committed to these targets in 2016. China is also the world’s largest investor in renewable energy. If China was to change its energy habits, it could be a drastically large shift in emissions. ▪ Russia supported the 2015 Paris Climate Change agreement, it agreed to reduce carbon emissions by 30% from 1990 levels. However, this actually means that they can increase their emissions and still be on target! (When the economy collapsed in 1991, Russia's emissions levels declined below the target level without effort). ▪ There are no sanctions for if countries miss their emissions targets. Spheres of Contest There are many spheres of contest (regions or property that governments compete over): Land Ownership: ▪ There are borders and islands that remain unclear over who owns them. ▪ This may be because there is untapped energy sources, opportunity for expansion, military strategic importance. Intellectual Property: ▪ Intellectual property is difficult to protect due to: increasing counterfeiting and the difficult classification of and individual idea - how different does an invention have to be to be considered ‘new’? ▪ Patenting is important for TNCs, since having a unique selling point is crucial for profits. Large amounts of money are paid in legal fees each year by TNCs trying to stop other companies using their ideas: e.g. in May 2018 Korean company Samsung was ordered to pay $539m to the American company Apple after a US court agreed they had copied patented features from the iPhone. ▪ Companies with a patent don't have to share their inventions, which leads to an ethical dilemma - medical companies don't have to release an antidote during a disease outbreak. The costs of developing new medicines and technologies would not be recouped through selling if others just sold the same product at lower prices. www.pmt.education Arctic Oil and Gas: ▪ It is estimates that 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas reserves are in the Arctic which is worth billions of dollars. ▪ As a result, sovereignty over the Arctic is disputed as different countries claim territory within the circle, potentially allowing them claim to the Arctic itself in the future. ▪ Three of the main parties involved have nuclear weapons (Russia, USA, EU). Russia placed a Russian flag on the North pole in 2007 which escalated tension. ▪ Scientific expeditions in the area have increased but these have been seen as controversial. ▪ Russia and Canada have both created Arctic forces to protect their interests and run military exercises. Russia’s Western Border: Russia considers its sphere of influence to be parts of Eastern Europe as most people are ethnic Russians and the majority of people speak Russian as their first language. Many of these countries were formerly part of the Soviet Union. However, some now wish to join the EU which Russia sees as threat to its power. Tensions between Russia and the EU and America have increased: ▪ Following the annexation of Crimea by Russia, the EU and USA impose many economic sanction which has damaged the Russian economy. ▪ NATO deployed more troops across Eastern European nations in case Russia attacked a NATO member state. Developing countries: Opportunities and threats The USA and the EU have been accused of having unfair relationships with developing nations. ▪ Neo-colonialism – Superpowers pulling the economic and political strings even though they don’t directly rule and control developing nations ▪ Unfair terms of trade – Cheap commodity exports from developing nations but expensive imports from developed world ▪ Brain drain - skilled and educated workers go to the core countries which are developed which in turn hinders the growth of developing countries’ economies Centre of Economic Gravity The world’s economic centre of gravity has slowly shifter from the West and is travelling to the East. This is because Asian states are becoming influential players in the global economy, whilst the role of the EU and USA is slowly diminishing. By 2050, it is expected that the GDP of Asia will be 174 trillion whilst the USA and Europe will be lower at 151 trillion. Asia’s Rising Status: Foreign direct investment (previously flowing from the developed West) has recently originated from Asian countries (such as China and India). However, some believe that FDI www.pmt.education is encouraging neo-colonial relationships between the developing and LEDCs; the donor country ‘gifts’ money or infrastructure in return for natural resources (minerals, oceans to fish, etc). Asian influences on the global economy are increasing significantly. This has lead to increasing tensions between Asian states as each vies for additional resources or relations to advance their global status. Conflict in The Middle East: The Middle East has been one of the most unstable region in the last few decades. Tension and conflict include: ▪ An alliance between the West with Israel and Arab monarchies whilst an opposing alliance has been formed between Iran, Syria, Russia and China. The Israelis are provided with billions in aid and equipment from the USA and Europe whilst Russia backs the Iranian and Syrian regimes. ▪ The invasion and occupation in Iraq (2003-2011) and Afghanistan (2001-2010) was US-led, and (officially) aimed to remove Hussain and Taliban, create stable governments and remove weapons of mass destruction. However, suspicions of the true aims of these occupations - to protect oil sources - has created mistrust in British and US governments. ▪ A refugee crisis has been created from the conflict between the different factions within Syria and Iraq which has forced 2 million people to flee to Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon which are struggling to cope with the large refugee numbers. ▪ The ongoing conflict between Palestine and Israel; Israel has taken land from Palestinians and built settlements which has continued to cause tensions with Muslims around the world Reasons for the Middle East’s conflict include: ▪ Religion – Sunni and Shia countries are fighting against each other and in proxy wars (e.g. Yemen). ▪ Oil and gas – 65% of the world’s crude oil comes from the Middle East. ▪ History – Colonial powers drew up the borders in this area which caused a lot of conflict, as borders don’t separate populations of separate communities and cultures. Uncertainty for existing superpowers Challenges for the EU Economic -Debt in the Eurozone €9.7 trillion in 2016 and £1.6trillion for the UK. -In 2016, unemployment stood at 10% which was a burden for taxpayers. -Youth unemployment in the EU was 22% in 2015 and over 45% in Greece and Spain. www.pmt.education Demographic: -The EU’s population is ageing, by 2025 it is estimated that 20% of EU citizens will be over 65. -After 2035, there is likely to be an overall decline in the population due to low birth rates. Political -The 28 nations don’t agree on all things and issues. -Tensions between countries that want a deeper union (Germany and France) and those who want a looser union (UK) have increased. -Immigration has become a very big political and divisive issue. Resources -EU’s energy predominantly comes from Russia and as relations between the EU and Russia are not very good right now, there could be energy insecurity for EU nations in the future. Challenges for the USA Economic -National debt in 2016 stood at $19 trillion -The USA between 2012 and 2014 spent. over $900 billion on its military (this is more than the whole GDP of Indonesia or the Netherlands). Demographic: -The population is expected to grow from 324 million in 2016 to 415 million in 2060 which cause lead to pressures on services and infrastructure. Political: -There is often political deadlock between democrats and Republicans at state level. - The recent election of Trump threatens to undermine previous work by Obama (Arctic Refuge Parks, Climate Change Agreements, Social Acceptance). Resources: -Water insecurity is a major problem especially in the South West. Many droughts affect this area, and an increasing number of illegally used aquifers will further drain water supplies unsustainably. www.pmt.education Social: -Health spending constitutes around 17% of the USA’s annual GDP, this is a very big cost for people and the government. -70% of Americans are overweight, with obesity, diabetes and cancer care causing serious health problems or death for the population. Future Demonstrations of Power: In the future, states may have new ways of showing their economic ability or political influence. For example: Nuclear weapons – Governments currently invest in nuclear weapons to deter potential attackers. In 2016, the UK parliament voted in favour of renewing Trident, their nuclear weapons programme, despite it costing from £100-250 billion over 50 years. However, with changing attitudes towards nuclear deterrents (such as ICAN being awarded the Nobel peace prize in 2017) they may prove unfavourable in the future. Space exploration – Many countries now have space exploration programmes. This may prove profitable in the future, as the exploration of Mars may provide countries with natural resources and new energy sources. Money invested in space exploration by different countries: USA $17.6 bn EU $5.5 bn Russia $5.6 bn Japan $2 bn China $1.3 bn India $1.1 bn Intelligence services – After recent attacks in the West, governments value their intelligence services. Also, with the rise of international incidents (for example, Russian nerve agent poisonings in the UK) the need for espionage on other states may increase. www.pmt.education

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