Conspiracy Theories_II.pptx

CONSPIRACY THEORIES II Dr. Simon Langford  OUTLINE Recap Psychology of Conspiracy Theories Conspiracy Theories and Ideology Conspiracy Theories and Extremism Other factors RECAP Cassam distinguishes between Conspiracy Theories and conspiracy theories He thinks the re...

CONSPIRACY THEORIES II Dr. Simon Langford  OUTLINE Recap Psychology of Conspiracy Theories Conspiracy Theories and Ideology Conspiracy Theories and Extremism Other factors RECAP Cassam distinguishes between Conspiracy Theories and conspiracy theories He thinks the real purpose of Conspiracy Theories is propaganda—to promote a political agenda He thinks Conspiracy Theories have special features which make them unlikely to be true. They’re: speculative, contrarian, esoteric, amateur, and pre-modern in worldview.  WHY ARE CONSPIRACY THEORIES POPULAR? In this lecture we’ll be trying to explain why people believe Conspiracy Theories. Why do you think CTs are popular?  PSYCHOLOGY Psychologists have tried to explain why many people believe conspiracy theories. They say: i) people believe CTs partly because of our inbuilt cognitive shortcuts and biases, and ii) it’s partly a matter of personality.  COGNITIVE BIASES HYPOTHESIS Cognitive biases are built into our psychology. Here are three: The intentionality bias—thinking that things happen because they were intended rather than accidental Confirmation bias—looking for evidence that supports what you already believe while ignoring contrary evidence Proportionality bias—the assumption that the scale of an event’s cause must match the scale  COGNITIVE BIASES HYPOTHESIS When Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 went missing, CTs quickly emerged: the pilot and co-pilot deliberately crashed the plane; it was shot down by a missile; it was hijacked; it was a victim of a cyber attack. Which bias is at work here? (Intentionality, Confirmation or Proportionality)  COGNITIVE BIASES HYPOTHESIS When JFK was shot by Lee Harvey Oswald, many refused to believe that the US President could have been assassinated by one lone loser. They thought the deep state must be involved or the mafia or both. Which bias is at work here? (Intentionality, Confirmation or Proportionality)  COGNITIVE BIASES HYPOTHESIS The confirmation bias works to keep CTs going. Once a CT has been accepted, believers latch on to evidence which seems to support the CT and ignore the often plentiful evidence against it. Objection: We are all subject to cognitive bias (it’s built into our psychology), but not everybody is prone to believing CTs. So how can cognitive biases explain why some people believe CTs?  CONSPIRACY-MINDED PERSONALITY HYPOTHESIS Perhaps those who believe in CTs have a different personality: a conspiracy-minded personality. People who believe one CT are more likely to believe other CTs, even totally unrelated or contradictory CTs.  CONSPIRACY-MINDED PERSONALITY HYPOTHESIS E.g., people who believe Princess Diana faked her own death are also more likely to believe that she was murdered by enemies of Mohammed El-Fayed. Offical Account: Diana died in a car accident in Paris after being chased by the paparazzi.  CONSPIRACY-MINDED PERSONALITY HYPOTHESIS Cassam: it’s plausible that there is something like being conspiracy-minded or having a conspiracy mindset. This doesn’t prove it’s a personality trait. Alternative hypothesis: a conspiracy mindset is an ideology instead.  CONSPIRACY THEORIES AND IDEOLOGY Ideology is a set of fundamental ideas and beliefs that shape one’s understanding of political reality. E.g., Marxism, racism. Also, Conspiricism. Conspiricism: people in authority/power are hiding things from us in a conspiracy to further their own sinister goals. If you believe this fundamental idea, you’re likely to end up accepting many CTs.  CONSPIRACY THEORIES AND IDEOLOGY Personality traits aren’t beliefs or ideas. E.g., being agreeable isn’t a matter of believing any specific thing. But being conspiracy-minded is a matter of believing some specific idea: conspiricism. Personality traits have a genetic basis. It’s unclear whether being conspiracy-minded has a genetic basis. So, it’s safer to think of it as ideology.  WHY ARE SOME PEOPLE CONSPIRACY-MINDED? Why are some people conspiracy-minded? If it’s about ideology not personality, why do some people accept that ideology?  IDEOLOGY AGAIN One possibility: some people are conspiracy- minded because that fits well with their broader political ideology—the ideology encourages conspiricism of a certain kind. E.g., in US liberals are more likely to be Truthers. Conservatives are more likely to be birthers (Uscinski and Parent).  IDEOLOGY AGAIN This fits with Cassam’s propaganda model of CTs. People are more likely to believe CTs that provide propaganda for their preferred political ideology. It also explains why people produce CTs: they’re produced because they are useful propagranda for the producers’ preferred political ideology.  EXTREMISM Ideologies most conducive to CTs are extremist ideologies. Right wing extremists are vociferous Conspiracy Theorists, especially prone to anti-semitic CTs. Left wing extremists are prone to CTs about global elites which they often assume to be Jewish.  EXTREMISM Extremist Islam: prone to the CT that there is a Judeo-Christian conspiracy to destroy Islam. Bin Laden affirmed this idea. Objection: there are extremists who are not Conspiracy Theorists. So, the fact that somebody is an extremist doesn’t explain why they are a Conspiracy Theorist.  EXTREMISM Cassam: compare “smoking causes lung cancer”. Many smokers won’t get lung cancer (only 17% of male smokers will.) So, the fact that a smoker gets lung cancer cannot be explained by the mere fact that they smoke. Reply: smoking is a major risk-factor for getting lung cancer. Only 1% of non-smokers get it. Smoking “causes” lung cancer means: it increases the risk. Want fewer people to get lung cancer? Reduce smoking. It’s irrelevant that many smokers don’t get lung cancer.  EXTREMISM Likewise, being a white supremicist or a communist or extreme Islamist increases the likelihood of being a Conspiracy Theorist. Why? Because CTs are an integral part of the extremist ideology. They’re not an optional extra. E.g., fascism: anti-semitic CTs are central to the ideology.  EXTREMISM Objection: Many Conspiracy Theorists aren’t extremists. What makes them Conspiracy Theorists? Cassam: we should expect the explanation to be complex, not simple, multi-dimensional not one- dimensional. The challenge is to identify a range of factors that lead to conspiricism.  OTHER FACTORS Being a victom of actual conspiracies Studies show African Americans and Hispanics are more likely to believe CTs than white Americans. US Public Health Service “Tuskegee Experiment” on untreated syphilis in African Americans. It’s no surprise that communities which are victims of racist conspiracies are more suspicious and more prone to believing CTs.  OTHER FACTORS Marginalisation Studies show that conspiricism is more prevalent where there is marginalisation, poverty, and other negative life circumstances. The conspiracy-minded are more likely to see themselves at the bottom of the social ladder, to have considered suicide, to have trouble sleeping.  OTHER FACTORS This doesn’t prove that negative life experiences cause conspiricism. But it opens up the possibility that being conspiracy-minded may be more to do with life circumstances than political ideology. Objection: some Conspiracy Theorists display none of these risk factors—not extremists, not victims of conspiracy, not marginalised.  OTHER FACTORS The Pull Factor Some factors push people in the direction of conspiracism. We should also consider the pull factor. CTs are seductive. They can be captivating and intriguing: “reality doesn’t match the appearances.” CTs invest random events with deeper significance.  SUMMARY Why are CTs popular? Psychology of CTs Cognitive Biases Hypothesis Conspiracy-Minded Personality Conspiricism as an ideology Political Ideology and conspiricism Extremism and conspiracism Other factors  QUESTIONS Describe the three cognitive biases mentioned and explain how they may promote the popularity Conspiracy Theories. Explain the idea that conspiracy mindedness is a personality trait. Explain and evaluate Cassam’s criticism. What’s the relationship between conspiracy mindedness and extremism, according to Cassam? (Consider the objections to Cassam’s view and the replies he gives. Are his replies convincing?) What other factors help explain conspiracy mindedness, according to Cassam?