A New Arms Race in Southeast Asia? - CLASS 11 PDF

A new arms race in Southeast Asia? What is behind Vietnam and Thailand’s rising arms acquisition? Anne Nguyen – Groupe de Recherche et d’information sur la paix et la sécurité 1. Basic observations Evolution of South East Asia Military expenditures in...

A new arms race in Southeast Asia? What is behind Vietnam and Thailand’s rising arms acquisition? Anne Nguyen – Groupe de Recherche et d’information sur la paix et la sécurité 1. Basic observations Evolution of South East Asia Military expenditures in constant USD (2021) General increase of weapons 50,0 acquisition in Southeast Asia 45,0 All capabilities covered 40,0 Airforce 35,0 30,0 Marine 25,0 Army 20,0 Command, control, 15,0 communication, computers, 10,0 intelligence, surveillance, 5,0 reconnaissance (C4ISR) 0,0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 ➔ Why? Is there an arms race? Summary of the class 1. Basic observations 2. Presentation of the case studies & Method of data collection 3. Who bought what? 4. How does IR theory inform us about this? 2. Case studies Vietnam Thailand Socialist republic since 1975 Constitutional monarchy since 4 no 1932 No military alliance 20 coups (last in 2014) No foreign base Under military government No use of territory by a foreign until 2023 state in a conflict No taking parts in conflicts US Ally (neutrality) Evolution of Military Expenditures in Thailand and Vietnam Between 2002 and 2022 in Constant USD Million 8000,0 7000,0 6000,0 5000,0 4000,0 3000,0 2000,0 1000,0 0,0 2013 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Thaïlande Viêt Nam Source: SIPRI Method of data collection SIPRI trend indicator value index → TIV A tool for comparison among countries Based on size, performance, characteristics, electronics, age, 1st or second hand use, etc… NOT the real cost of a weapon system NOT comparable to GDP, military expenditure, sales values, or financial value of the weapon system 3. Who bought what? Vietnam’s percentage of arms imports Thailand’s percentage of arms imports by weapon category, 2004–2023 by weapon category, 2004–2023 6% 3% 15% 32% 10% 41% 29% 1% 1% 12% 3% 3% 1% 3% 20% 4% 16% Air defence systems Aircrafts Armoured vehicles Artillery Air defence systems Aircrafts Armoured vehicles Engines Engines Missiles Naval Artillery Satellites Missiles Sensors Ships Sensors Ships From whom? Vietnam acquisitions by provider - Thailand acquisitions by provider - 2004-2023 2004-2023 2% 1% 4% 1% 3% 7% 14% 26% 1% 1% 4% 14% 6% 5% 4% 13% 5% 1% 2% 12% 81% China France Germany Israel Italy Netherlands Republic of Korea Spain Belarus Czech Republic Israel Netherlands Sweden Ukraine United Kingdom United States Republic of Korea Russia Ukraine United States Others